, Helsinki University of Technology, PO BOX 1100, FI-02015 TKK, Finland b Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre of the European commission, Edificio Expo, C
of Technology, PO BOX 1100, FI-02015 TKK, Finland; binstitute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre of the European commission, Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain In 2005, the Finnish Government
which served to inform albeit indirectly the development of the national strategy and the attendant implementation of several Strategic Centres of Excellence in Science and Technology.
the Finnish Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes) has catalysed extensive consultation processes with researchers and industrialists in its strategy developmmen (Salo and Salmenkaita 2002;
and technology programs (cf. Salo 2001; Salmenkaita and Salo 2002. This situation changed in April 2005
words, exemplifyyin relevant scientific disciplines and associated technologies, as well as some domains of their potential application in industry and society.
and substance abuse research Home care and telecare technologies 4. Environment and energy Operation of ecosystems Water systems and water cleaning technologies Smart sensors and new energy conversion and storage
technologies 5. Infrastructure and security Environmental know-how and technology Logistic know-how and security of supply management Integration know-how 6. Bio-expertise and bio-society Complete use of renewable
Technology and Innovation7 in fields that are important to the future of Finnish society and business and industry.
Technology and Innovation was an important part. This opportune timing gave possibilities for instrumental use,
Notes on contributors Ahti Salo is a professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory of the Helsinki University of Technology.
Ville Brummer is a researcher at the Systems analysis Laboratory of the Helsinki University of Technology.
technologies, institutions and organizations. London: Pinter. Eriksson, E. A. and K. M. Weber. 2008. Adaptive foresight:
International Journal of Technology Policy and Management 2, no. 2: 167 93. Salo, A t. Könnölä,
Science, technology, innovation. Helsinki: Ministry of Education. http://www. minedu. fi/export/sites/default/OPM/Tiede/tutkimus-ja innovaationeuvosto/TTN/julkaisut/liitteet/Review 2006. pdf?
Introduction From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is derived a term from a collective description given to the range of technology-oriented forecasting methods and practices by a group of futures researchers and practitioners
1. Called‘‘technology futures analysis''in its original form, the central aim was to bring into a single frame a family of methods
many of these methods have far wider application in futures work than in the domain of technology
and it is pertinent to ask why there should be a particular focus on technology. While this is a powerful undercurrent in the broader discourse of futures work it does not elsewhere form the central focus.
''3. On its own perhaps not but technology is rarely absent among drivers; as Linstone argued in the context of considering long waves,
‘‘Technology will play as significant a role in the 21st century as it did in the 20th''4. From the conceptual ground of the paper,
References 1 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303, in press. 2 T. J. Gordon, J. C. Glenn (Eds.
MBS, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9pl, UK Jennifer Cassingena Harper Malta Council for Science and Technology, Villa Bighi, Bighi, Kalkara
, Breslauer Straße 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany d CNAM, 292 rue Saint-martin, 75003 Paris, France e Dept of Science, Technology,
At the same time sectoral and technology specific determinants (technological regimes) significantly structure companies'search processes and thereby shape the dynamics of knowledge production 11.
Furthermore, Foresight processes are supposed to help designing new value networks that are based on the novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
Extending the application of search regimes in the realm of technology does neither create special difficulties concerning the third dimension, complementarity.
One DG RTD service is specifically in charge of translating nano policy objectives into research programmes,‘‘Nano-and converging Sciences and Technologies''.
. Brown, K. Konrad, H. van Lente, The sociology of expectation in science and technology, Technology analysis & Strategic management 18 (3/4)( 2006) 285 298.7 B. De
London/Dover, 1984.29 W. B. Arthur, Competing technologies, increasing returns, and lock in by historical events, Economic Journal 99 (394)( 1989) 116 131.30 W. B. Arthur, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, University of Michigan Press
, Ann arbor, 1994.31 S. Jacobsson, A. Johnson, The diffusion of renewable energy technology: an analytical framework and key issues for research, Energy Policy 28 (9)( 2000) 625 640.32 A. Salo, T. Gustafsson, R. Ramanathan, Multicriteria methods for Technology foresight, Journal
patterns of moral argumentation about new and emerging science and technology, Nanoethics 1 (1)( 2007) 3 20.
and technology that defines today's business environment. For more than 25 years, scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's
and an acceleration of the advances in science and technology all are turning traditional hierarchical or linear markets, supply chains,
Disruptive developments or technologies. Participating scanners cast their nets broadly to bring in signals of change from various domains,
Technology. The breadth of scope inherent in the diversity of the categories represents one of the most important strengths of the scanning process.
when making technology decisions may be an appropriate strategy. The abstract is valuable because it questions conventional wisdom
Examples include abstracts that speculate about currently gestating technologies with the potential eventually to have an impact similar in scope to that of the Internet in the past 20 years.
and technology to explore ad hoc wireless-mesh networks that allocate spectrum on the fly. The networks are self-organizing
computing, and sensing technologies are dramatically expanding the capabilities of and domains in which continuous-monitoring concepts can operate.
When abstracts on particular topics (such as wireless technologies or privacy concerns) constitute clusters that cross industry-domain categories (such as health
and government), the analysts know that the technology or topic will have widespread impact (see Fig. 3). The second part of the meeting consists of identifying the topics
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1089 backgrounds, from technology to specialties in consumer behavior, from engineering to anthropology,
Technology monitors! Strategy consultants! Principal consultants! Marketing and sales staff. Representation from a wide variety of academic and professional backgrounds is helpful as well.
and Technology, Villa Bighi, Bighi, Kalkara CSP 12, Malta 1. Introduction The predominant focus of foresight 1 is frequently national research policy and strategy,
The most popular group is one we have called analysing the future potential of technologies. This reflects a type of foresight which preselects one
or more areas of science or technology and uses foresight approaches to assess their potential and the actions needed to take them forward.
and demand fir technology or innovation. These almost always make reference to market opportunities or societal demand.
and capacity building Priority setting for S&t Network building Supporting policy or strategy development Analysing the future potential of technologies Fig. 1. Analysis of objectives of 50 foresight exercises. 1 Thanks
thematic priorities referring to fields of science and technology; mission-oriented priorities referring to socioeconomic or technological goals;
The process is typically a broader sociopolitical interaction of supply side technology or science push with demand side Pull in an unstructured process the various interest groups press their case
if technologies chosen by eminent experts participating as a small elite group. Normally the full appellation of foresight would be reserved for a process that went beyond this to involve a systematic consideration of socioeconomic and technical drivers
Later critical technologies exercises in Europe such as The french Key technologies Programme and the Czech Foresight exercise introduced these key foresight characteristics 9, 10.
These multidisciplinary and cross-business function programs are aimed at technology leaps in strategic areas. Projects are not the focus of detailed selection effort the primary issue is one of addressing broad technology goals
and programme portfolios to meet these targets. Research is organised into a modest number of specific programmes.
These programmes are defined in general around technologies (such as adhesives or semiconductors), or around broad areas of functionality()TD$FIG 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%FP6 FP5 FP4 FP3 FP2
Substantial effort is put into the preparation of technology landscaping or foresight documents as an input to the strategy process 17.
which sought to examine the future of‘‘Key Research actors''in the European research area encompassing civil society, researchers, small and medium enterprises, universities, research and technology organisations, multinational enterprises, national and regional governments 23.
A key contention behind this exercise was that‘‘current policies are excessively technology-centric and may miss crucial emerging attributes of research and research actors in the knowledge society''.
society and technology which may impact upon the business and its innovative activities. Rollwagen et al. describe this process in Deutsche bank which they summarise as‘‘Foresight explores
as firms become increasingly dependent on complementary or external sources of technology, formulation of strategy, previously an internal activity, must at least in part nowbe carried out in the public arena.
and technology that may feature in priorities exercises but rather involves the mastery or areas such as training,
References 1 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.2 T. Kuwahara, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Foresight in Japan, in:
from trend based logics to open foresight, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 321 336.8 OECD, Choosing Priorities in Science and Technology, OECD, Paris, 1991.9 K
Paper Presented at the UNIDO Technology foresight Summit, September, Budapest, 2007.11 T. L. Saaty, The Analytical Hierarchy Process, Mcgraw hill, New york, 1980.12 Office of Science and Technology and PREST
) 471.17 R. Coombs, R. R. Ford, L. Georghiou, Generation and Selection of Successful Research projects, A Research Study for the Technology Strategy Forum, 2001.
foresight processes can also become a pertinent design phase for the creation of new value networks that are based on the novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
and final outcomes 8. The systemic understanding of innovation processes has challenged conventional technology driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that address also the consideration of diverse perspectives, formation
foresight processes can often be seen as a pertinent design phase for the creation of newvalue networks that are based on novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
Foresight Canadae Informative Identification of emerging and frontier technology domains addressing subjects such as future fuels, bio-health innovation, geo-strategic systems, animal
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research Areag 21 Informative Identification and SWOT analysis of socio-techno-economic trends, drivers and challenges;
and the priority setting of science and technology based on technology foresight. Extensive There was an extensive engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 257 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement National Technology roadmap in Korea Informative Learning about the technology
Autonomous Each TRM team consists of around 10 technology experts from industries, academic circles and research circles.
and identified 182 future strategic technologies. Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning. Extensive There are broad engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry.
a term put forward by Castells 15 to describe a society built on technologies of information storage, retrieval,
characterised not only by convergence of technology and by exchange of information other many different networks,
and communication technologies (ICT) can make to the economy, society and personal quality of life, "and the ICT priority has the largest budget share of the current European RTD Framework programme (FP7:
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (2002 2005) was an FP5 IST Thematic Network coordinated by JRC-IPTS
5 Japan is the pioneer of technology forecasting and foresight, and has completed 8 times technology foresight activities
when over one thousand top scientists participated in the work ranging from technology selection, priority setting, subject arrangement, resource distribution,
and generated a number of debates on the future of information and communication technologies and the development of a knowledge society in Europe.
the‘‘Technology Trajectory''concept developed by FISTERA was used by industry and academia as a‘‘thinking tool''.
The Foresight project conducted in Canada through a series of collaborative projects aimed at emerging and frontier technology domains that could be important to national policy development process for the next ten years.
and Technology agenda that could be aligned with the US Department of Homeland Security as part of the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North america.
The outcomes of consensual and instrumental technology foresight activities in Asian countries such as Japan, Korea and China have played increasingly important role in the policy-making process for science & technology and innovation.
the 8th technology foresight provided important support for making the 3rd basic plan for science and technology of Japan.
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area, available at: http://fistera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/(2009-11-10). 22 Future impacts of ICTS on Environmental sustainability Project, available at:
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (FISTERA) Key Findings, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-22319-EN, Seville, 2009, available at:
id=1431 (2009-11-10). 24 A. Fujii, Foresight on information society technologies in Europe, in:
. Introduction Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) is an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action, especially in science, technology and innovation policy-making.
This moves well beyond the narrow domain basic technology forecasting important though that this. Indeed, understanding the dynamics of technological change is just one part of a broader mandate.
and practice often goes well beyond the narrow domain of technology forecasting. It is oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems,
Practically any source of insight into the dynamics of science and technology (S&t) their production, communication, application can be utilised as knowledge inputs into FTA.
Porter et al. 3 (the report of the Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group) reviewed many of the tools used
FTA's subfields include technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment, and of course futures research with its emphasis on explicating long-term alternative development prospects.
and convergent technologies) and the extensive and far-reaching implications of increasing capabilities to transform the natural and human environments (giving rise at one extreme to concerns about threats to human existence
and impacts of development (for example, nuclear technology, or the location of renewable energy projects such as windfarms and biofuel plants).
The labels of these two dichotomies are imperfect technology can be and is used in PKM,
Technology Roadmapping and other ways of visualising future prospects are supported by improved tools, and Delphi and other methods for eliciting expert opinion are frequently put online.
This is not an issue of technology versus interaction, since IT can be used to support activity at all poles of Popper's diamond.
for example, with more qualitative analysis required to explore possible factors shaping take off points, ceilings, novel applications of the technology that is diffusing, and so on.
and roadmapping conducted for ISTAG (the Information society Technologies Advisory Group) of the EC 26. The Ami work had focused on the benefits of the emerging ubiquitous IT systems,
and vulnerabilities associated with the use of Ami technologies and services. The project received EC funding presumably
and trust Ami technology.''''12 The dark scenarios were developed, via workshop and expert group analysis,
Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field & new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.4 R. Johnston, Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis, in:
Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology, Oakhill Press, Greensboro, 1997 (available at http://www. josephcoates. com/2025 pdf. html (accessed 29/07/2009)).
but in human societies it has perceptual and physical components infecting matters relating to society, science and technology, economics, ecology, politics and value/norms:
The relationship between advances in technology and human social development was established during the Enlightenment well before the notion of‘economics'was born as a cultural invention, rather than as a pseudo-objective science.
More recently, the pace of migration of new science and technology (S&t) has increased under the influence of the widespread use of new socioeconomic communication technologies and the globalisation of the world markets.
slow running unease with the assumption that all science and technology were‘good things 'and that human mental plasticity would always adapt to them,
and technology, has been accompanied by a growing rejection of technological determinism. H g wells and Aldous Huxley were among the earliest authors to challenge the conventional mantra,
However, it was probably the use of the fission nuclear weapons to end WORLD WAR II that gave added impetus to the questioning of the role of science and technology in human development.
Similarly, the continuing pressure for the public participation in science and technology decision-making processes, elsewhere called a‘democratic deficit'and coming from Greenpeace, the Friends of the Earth, the ETC Group,
Implicitly, sustainable development recognises the need for technology to develop solutions that conserve the Earth's resources,
and promote universal interoperable technology when innovation processes are shaped by the social environment. CSR brings wider societal concerns and values, such as human rights, ethics and corruption, into business strategy and decision making.
and science and technology. Their aimis to ensure thatmnes operate in harmony with the policies of the countries where they operate.
The conditions for democratic governance of technology and innovation need to be acknowledged and discussed. Rather than just opening dialogue between science and society solely in terms of environmental or health impacts, there is a need to tackle broader social concerns such as ethical and cultural values, power relations,
technology, environment, natural resources, biomedical aspects, institutional and legal matters as well as the socioeconomic aspects.''Davitaya 41 enlarged Evan's definition describing,
The greater acknowledgement of the co-evolution of technology and society, as well as the claim that FTA practices should be submitted to interpretation of their significance by the relevant disciplines of the social sciences
For this purpose, looking at the survey results we suggested a STEEP (Social-Cultural, Science & Technology, Energy, Ecology and Economy,
Shift to digital technology; Trend toward ever smaller, more mobile and more powerful computation-communications devices,
erosion of traditional family Return of family Spiritual revolution Technology: rapid progress of ICT and biotech End of Moore's Law 100 years life expectancy Environment:
and expose potential threats for those attached to old or inflexible technologies. As just one example,
Another series of examples have emerged recently in the excellent work by Social Technologies, based in the USA.
or in technology terms, the speed of take up of‘‘Mosaic''(precursor to Netscape) as the first Internet browser in 1993,
and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
, Moral & Legal Issues 2. Science & Technology Science Culture & Discoveries Technology Progress Innovative, Transformative Applications & Products 3. Energy Current Energy Use
it is rather clear that trends involving technology change and uncertainties about environmental, climatic and energy systems change are on the top of respondents minds.
and home-based healthcare increase Science & Tech. 77 More multi-disciplinary and e-science GM disease resistant plants and microbes for energy Automatisation and robotics growth
Increased surveillance smart security, disruptive surveillance technology big business Energy 42 Peak oil Growth of renewable energy:
Science and Technology; Energy; Ecology and Economy; and Geopolitics and Security (STEEP. Furthermore, high impact assessment is more prevalent among the more highly experienced respondents(>10 years.
This distribution and differentiation could be a result of how recent technology challenges such as genetically modified organisms have attracted more intense controversy in Europe than in other regions
Technology improvements are seen to be accelerating and pervasive; Infrastructure stress and threats to stability are likely to continue or intensify;
religious and team sport identities Changes in health risk perception Ethical investment in development projects to promote sustainability Science & Tech. 46 Maturation of S, T and Humanities relationship
cultural, physical and biological improvements New investments in the Internet capacity improvement Progress in genetic therapy, stem cells and molecular medicine pharmacology Sunburst of change in vehicle technology
Blockage of free trade due to a major pandemic Science & Tech. 9 Big disasters in science creation of out-of-control species, viruses, robots Disruption of technological systems Artificial intelligence passes human capacity Shocking scientific discovery challenges all hitherto received ideas, e g.,
& Tech. 13 Scientific community discredited, isolated and ostracised Accelerated ICT development in ubiquitous computation All communications are based mobile,
New ethics, new freedoms, new rights and technologies out of control are cited; Also worthy of deeper probing in subsequent surveys.
law and life styles Dependence on anti-factual information, failing roots of knowledge and understanding Declining male fertility Human cloning Science & Tech. 33 Ubiquitous connectivity web
and Africa Technologies out of control Changes in the gravity of the earth O. Saritas,
Detecting and analysing emerging science and technology issues: the EFMN issue analysis, Foresight 10 (2008) 6, 90 102.3 DCDC, The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme:
15 Social Technologies, Discontinuity: Mobility, 2008. Available at: http://www. socialtechnologies. com/Fileview. aspx? filename=PR DISCONTINUITIES MOBILITTYV2%20ks%20mh%20eds final. pdf (last visited on:
The focus of the Conference was on foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools.
Transport is strongly based on a modern technology-infrastructure combination. This‘‘hardware''co-evolved with what we can observe today as modern travel patterns.
Also, the technology-infrastructure systems are enabled dependent on, and by, technological developments in different areas; the most important of which might be the energy sector and the development of information and communication technologies.
So, transport is a socio-technical system that is influenced by, and interwoven with, many factors inside and beyond its boundaries.
The rapid progress in information and communication technologies enabled the application of sophisticated transport models.
pricing measures or technology incentives on travel behaviour are predictable to a very high degree.
Philosophy of Technology and Engineering sciences, Elsevier, New york, NY, pp. 1103-45. Hanley, N. and Barbier, E. B. 2009), Pricing Nature.
, J.,van Est, R.,Joss, S.,Bellucci, S. and Bu tschi, D. 2000), EUROPTA, The Danish Board of Technology, Copenhagen, available at:
He serves as Deputy Head of the Department of Innovation processes and Impacts of Technology at ITAS.
In many ways, foresight techniques also originally arose out of the need to deal with unexpected events in the technology and political arenas, for example the classic Shell scenarios.
B Low-carbon technology will improve significantly in all sectors by 2050. B Prices of fossil fuels will rise
4. Technology is the key (business-as usual scenario, solutions relying on decentralised energy production and increased use of nuclear power).
Be self-sufficient D Technology is the key Leading idea Eco-efficiency, diminishing energy consumption Restraining urban sprawl
CCS technologies in use (continued) PAGE 310 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Table II Scenario/variable A Efficiency revolution B Sustainable daily
mile C Be self-sufficient D Technology is the key Urban structure Cohesive, in urban areas people move closer to central cities,
Preemptive nature conservation Nature as a source of admiration and recreation Nature as a partner Cleaning up the mess made as much as possible Relation towards technology New technology as a lever
finding new intelligent ways to use old technologies New technology as a lever and enabler, mimicking nature,
Bottlenecks hindering the growth of new business opportunities for low-emission technology and applications should be analysed and removed.
except for the scenario D. Its tentative title‘‘Power from Decentralisation''was transformed into‘‘Technology is the Key''.
nevertheless lead to significant future rigidities (in terms of technologies, applications and stakeholders). If one does not just await the outcomes,
when a technology is in the early stages of development, it is very hard to foresee the social impacts of the technology,
but the course of development can still be altered easily. When the technology becomes part of our economic and social system,
social impacts can be observed. However, changing/controlling the technological development becomes extremely difficult. This dilemma highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of technological developments even at very early stages.
when the technology is still emerging and not yet entrenched. Emergence is the process or event of something coming into existence.
For example, there is a visible increase in the number of linkages between the heterogeneous actors together in search of defining the newly emerging field or technology.
what the technology will bring. Research institutes study a broad variety of scientific subjects and some results will be seen as promising and some not.
What are the results of private companies that contribute to the realization of the technology?
What are the results from (academic research groups that contribute to the realization of the technology?
The future of nanotechnology has become an important topic for technology firms, policy makers and research institutes.
That is, conventional technologies are needed still as well to produce the product. Nanotechnology can for example, enable precise targeting of drugs (pharmaceuticals)
The intention is to commercialise this technology as soon as possible. In the hybrid solution the lower nanotube is replaced by a semiconducting structure created by common lithography techniques. 12 Then a layer of nanotubes is deposited
Nantero is developing NRAMK a high-density nonvolatile random access memory chip using nanotube technology. The company expects to deliver a product that will replace existing forms of memory, such as DRAM, SRAM and flash memory, with a high-density nonvolatile duniversal memoryt 18.
and launch a transparent global process for evaluating the socioeconnomic health and environmental implications of the technology.
pharmaceuticals, electronic devices, material production, energy technologies, etc. Concluding, the expectations on the societal level show a contradiction in the sense that on the one hand nanotubes are used without regulation
Cees Dekker's group 31 at the Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) turned a nanotube into a transistor (the basic building block of computer chips.
We already discussed how this technology works, as it is the subject of this case. Cientifica14 24 from a market perspective points out that,
During these few years Nantero received a rather extensive media attention (37 articles in total) from technology as well as business journals.
a processor based on nanotube transistors is impossible to produce. 3. 2. 3. Research group Restrictive factors in the development of technologies are repeating phenomena that end up on the agenda of research groups.
and production (making the technology ready for commercialisation). The last part was done in collaboration with ASML,
which led to the fact that the technology is compatible with existing lithography equipment 18.
The fact that current semiconductor technology will reach the physical limits soon, gives a push on the market to come up with new solutions to continue the ongoing miniaturisation in the computer chip industry.
Later on, Nantero showed compatibility with existing lithography equipment as a next step in the realisation of a producible technology.
and the business community that the technology (or even nanotechnology) is actually possible of producing workable products for the electronic industry.
Second, sentiments at the societal level might influence the possibilities for the electronic industry to develop technologies that might receive negative publicity.
when a certain technology is received positively at the societal level. 4. Conclusions and discussion In this paper we proposed a route to deal with the intrinsic uncertainties of a new emerging field like nanotechnology.
and exploit the actual technology dynamics 32. A brief historical digression is helpful at this point.
Nevertheless, the leading idea is to anticipate on societal aspects in an early stage of technological development to get better societal embedded technology 34.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1108 development of dusefult applications of technology, CTA
indirectly aims at influencing the technology in development via the involved actors. We think the tracing of emerging irreversibilities is an important next step in the development of TA,
The prevailing type of study in journals and books on technology dynamics is a retrospective analysis. The drawbacks of a retrospective approach are well-known:
while it is unfolding at this very moment gives the opportunity to observe (for example with the method proposed in this paper) the construction of the technology in a more symmetrical way.
These insights are valuable for understanding the dynamics of a particular technology and help to trace emerging irreversibilities in the early phases of technological development.
References 1 D. Collingridge, The Social control of Technology, Pinter, London, 1980.2 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Research policy 6 (1
the results and insights that are gained by applying CTA tools in practice can be fed back into theories of technology dynamics.
Managing Technology in Society, Pinter, London, 1995, pp. 307 330.7 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in:
1 (1999) 1 6. 9 H. Van Lente, A. Rip, The rise of membrane technology.
Promising technology: the dynamics of expectations in technological development. Dissertation, Delft: Eburon, 1993.11 B. Latour, Science in Action, Open University Press, Milton Keynes, 1987.12 OECD, Technology and the economy:
the key relationships, The Technology/Economy Programme, Paris, 1992.13 A. H. Arnall, Future technologies, Today's Choices:
Nanotechnology, Artificial intelligence and Robotics; A Technical, Political and Institutional Map of Emerging technologies, Greenpeace Environmental Trust, London, 2003, July 14 Royal Society, Royal Academy of Engineering, Nanoscience and nanotechnologies:
20 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. announces $10. 5mm in funding developing nanotube-based nonvolatile RAM technology for licensing.
Technologies Converging at the Nanoscale, 2003 (January. 23 P. G. Collins, P. Avouris, Nanotubes for electronics, Scientific American 283 (6)( 2000 (December)) 62 69.24 Cientifica:
transistor based on a single carbon nanotube, Nature 393 (1998) 49 52.32 A. Rip, T. J. Misa, T. J.,J. Schot, Managing Technology
34 J. W. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 251 268.
Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: K. H. Sørensen, R. Williams (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:
In his Phd thesis he examines the dynamics of expectations in the development of technology.
Since then he has been involved in a wide range of studies in the area of technology, innovation and society.
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