This analysis indicates that policy and systems of innovation are shaped by social, cultural and political power as well as by technological rationalism and such indeterminism makes systemic approaches to innovation policy far from linear or predictable.
Futures thinking Futures thinking is used for medium to long-term strategic analysis and planning. According to Jørgensen 41, citing Dreborg 42,
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
who joined Rand, explored the application of systems analysis and game theory in order to encourage‘thinking the unthinkable'8. Meanwhile in France,
These types of approaches are typical of those used in our analysis (see Appendix 1 for an overview of the scenario cases.
Our analysis indicates contrasting motivations between developing and using future scenarios in the case studies from Appendix 1
In addition, our analysis indicates that scenarios with a strong focus on consensus during the development are often too vague and too broad for defining tangible innovation opportunities.
The two motivations are connected to the perspective used in the analysis (i e. window of opportunity) and can be seen as a polarized view on this element of practice.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 our analysis a better understanding of the linkages between scenario design, methods used and related outcomes.
i e. legitimacy for action, our analysis revealed three groups of scenario practice in the case studies from Appendix 1. The following sub-sections will describe the main characteristics for each of these three groups:
Our analysis suggests that this can be contributed partly to the selected process design for developing the scenarios.
PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe. 437 P. De Smedt et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The images of the future are focused on key internal developments
Our analysis also suggests possible improvements for this group of scenario practice. Roadmaps directed towards a single target are likely to be inappropriate where policy intervention may direct technology towards a different trajectory altogether 70,71.
i e. empowering stakeholders, our analysis of the case studies from Appendix 1 revealed two groups of scenario practice:
Our analysis suggests that scenarios developed with broader stakeholder/expert participation will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present 73,75.
Following a reflexive inquiry methodology in the analysis of the scenario cases listed in Appendix 1,
or contributions to the enablers for orientating innovation systems through future scenarios (i e. pros and cons). Our analysis of the case studies listed in Appendix 1 suggests that a variety of modes of futures thinking,
Our analyses of the scenario case studies from Appendix 1 revealed elements of good practice and implications on how to better address innovation through future scenarios.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 acknowledge the limits of our analysis: i e. using a policy perspective for doing an ex-post analysis of future scenario practice.
Innovation systems are complex and dynamic and scenario practice is applied more widely than our sample. Therefore, when using reflexivity in research or in scenario practice,
Foresight analysis for world agricultural markets (2020) and Europe. www. ag2020. org 2. Danish Technology foresight on Environmentaall Friendly Agriculture K. Borch,(in press) The Danish Technology foresight
European commission DG RTD, Directorate E Unit E. 4, Brussel. 7. Prelude EEA (2006) Prelude (PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe) scenarios.
Peter De Smedt has a background in ecological system analyses. His professional challenge is connecting science and policy.
but rather on the longer-term interplay between the organizational settings in both countries and the future-oriented nanotechnology analysis. In countries such as the US and Germany, where FTA on nanotechnology were already underway in the late 1980s,
although the impact of fta itself on the governance of nanotechnology has not been the subject of analysis. The scope of nanotechnology governance covers both anticipating
Historical analysis indicates that the process of drawing the boundary so as to exclude Drexler's ideas was connected closely with controversies around the question,
Since 2004, risk has become the subject of political concern as well as the subject of analysis. Public opinion about nanotechnology
and focused in the early stages on technology analysis, market analyses and technology assessment activities. The BMBF commissions the Association of German Engineers Technology Center (VDI-TZ), a subsidiary company of the Association of German Engineers (VDI),
No impact/uncertainty analysis was conducted. Instead after discussing all signals each project member selected the most surprising and interesting signals according to their personal opinion.
and the initial analysis of the signals of change described above 16. Throughout the project the team discussed
The framework developed within the INFU project supported an analysis of structural changes hinted at by several visions.
Therefore an in depth analysis for these positive visions can be conducted easily whereas more gloomy visions may be neglected.
Studies have indicated that the principal applications of FTA have been in supporting priority-setting and in the analysis and articulation of the potential of future technologies 9
design and innovation management while others mainly draw on empirical analysis and established FTA theory. The two papers that most clearly take a contextual improvement perspective (a) are the one by Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen and the one by Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin.
Their arguments and analyses bring together theoretical concepts from innovation studies, innovation management and foresight. They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
The analyses have later been extended to other types of organisations and countries, and covered 76 countries by 2010 22.
Among all 50 countries that are included in Hofstede's analysis, Denmark ranks as the 3rd lowest for both uncertainty avoidance and power distance.
First, due to the dense economic and social relationships between public and private organisations, participatory and consensus seeking approaches have more appeal to policy makers than deep, scientific expert analysis of available knowledge.
and Popper's analysis of regional styles in the use of foresight methods is oriented that interaction methods,
Second, Denmark‘s tradition of basing policy decisions on analyses of available knowledge is weak.
One of the conclusions of the study is that the basis for political decisions often bears the imprint of negotiation rather than systematic analyses of the problems:
In this study, technology foresight was defined as‘‘dialogue activities and analyses of long-term developments in science, technology, economy and society with the aim of identifying technologies which may have economical and/or societal significance''29.
The second phase included an analysis of the received material from phase 1. The material was analysed by an independent expert panel that consisted of eight members with the aim of identifying coherent research themes in the received material.
The insights presented in this paper are based on recent policy document analyses in depth interviews, and questionnaire research involving users in the local and national policy domain. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
The empirical evidence for this paper is based on three indeept interviews with policy-makers who were involved closely in the development of the scenarios, the analysis of the scenario studies,
We used an independent evaluation that was conducted in 2010 by the University of Twente 21, based on interviews with 21 politicians and civil servants and a document analysis. Furthermore,
In all cases, the scope of the analysis was the future of a territorial entity,
At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers. The document analysis focused on documents regarding the scenarios and related strategic policy documents.
The insights from this analysis were juxtaposed with the insights from the interviews. Because we were aware of the potential bias of in depth interviews (for example
a retrospective attitude may suggest a process more linear than it actually was focused), we especially on the consistencies between the document analyses and the in depth interviews.
In the interviews, we used open questions, to gain a broader understanding of the issues mentioned in the research questions.
1) an analysis of what foresight means to the interviewees and (2) an analysis of the way policy and strategy processes take place.
Although all thirteen ministries were involved, given the amount and diversity of (sub-)departments within each Ministry,
because in both analyses, our aim was to ascertain how futures studies methods are being used in practice by governments.
it can be difficult to find out how these methods relate to other methods with which they may be more familiar (such as SWOT-analyses,
benchmarks, trend analyses and sectoral prognoses. By way of contrast, the national level inquiries showed that civil servants are relatively familiar with foresight methods, especially scenario analysis,
'The‘policy foresight'analysis showed that, in addition to scenarios (with which 99%of the respondents were familiar),
In retrospect, they felt that insights from future analyses could be connected better to and embedded in on-going policy development processes.
For example, combining insights from a future analysis with the development of a policy vision and various strategies was seen as a sluggish process.
Often, it was unclear how the insights from the foresight study were applied in the policy analyses.
and/or applying the future analysis, by introducing the theoretical background of the method and/or by delivering content for the foresight analysis. One of the lessons learnt with respect to external assistance was that,
ownership of the scenarios was unclear in some cases. Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.
''As was highlighted in the analysis of the Stuurgroep Toekomstonderzoek (Steering committee Future research) 27, foresight studies work better when combined with policy processes rather than as a stand-alone process.
and the insights generated by future analyses are integrated into the various strategic levels and sectoral departments of their organisation.
The results of the analysis of local level foresight processes make it clear that policy-makers struggle with implementing future-oriented thinking and acting within the current organisational structures.
when it comes to applying the results of an analysis. Expectations need to be managed at the beginning and throughout the foresight study,
and that it can also be translated into a meaningful analysis within a strategic context 29 31.
The analysis of the two national foresight studies also showed that, although the futures research processes are relatively transparent and rational in nature,
the success of the future analysis depends partly on their level of leadership. Policy-makers also indicate that leadership depends on the degree of confidence among colleagues with regard to the future analyses (for example because of the proven quality of their work;
this success factor not only applies to the roles of the initiator and the coordinator, but also to the developers of the future study.
The national level analysis also shows that foresight is a‘human affair, 'meaning that, despite the importance and wide range of methods,
At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context
This analysis promotes the shaping of joint objectives and the overall scope of the exercise.
the background work involved the mapping and analysis of (i) scientific literature and of (ii) the main areas covered by twenty worldwide existing roadmaps and thirteen ongoing research projects.
T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations
and closed expert-driven analysis, were critical ingredients for arriving at rigorous and robust results.
European commission and roadmapping group) to share a common understanding of the system under analysis. It also allowed all the involved parties to explore likely ways in which it could evolve.
State-of-the-art and expectations Analysis of co-patents and co-publications Use common foresight framework User of partner contacts and established networks for outreach (survey, interviews,
36 (2004) 889 902.5 O. Saritas, M. A. Oner, Systemic analysis of UK foresight results:
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis and Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo
These include horizon scanning (e g. of weak signals), strategy setting, development of corporate visions, portfolio analysis, and as an aid in the management of supply chains.
it is crucial to support any reform by systematic analyses and vision-building exercises. However, a review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the approaches implemented present three major shortcomings:(
i) the broader socioeconomic systems are addressed not in these analyses, (ii) the huge diversity of higher education systems and individual universities cannot be reflected;(
Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of the Research centre Karlsruhe, joined ITAS'forerunner AFAS in 1979 and has worked
Although the principles underlying the open innovation concept have been subjected to critical analyses, which designated it as‘old wine in new bottles'2,
Moreover, other Foresight methods such as horizon scanning, scenarios, customer and technology trend analysis, and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives
However, in the analysis it became clear that the vast majority concerned very common features and possibilities.
An Analysis of the Possible Roles of Parliamentary Technology assessment in Innovation policy, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht, 2004.19 K. De Moor, K. Berte, L. De Marez, W. Joseph
Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis, Science and Public policy 37 (2010) 51 61.20 C. Lettl, User involvement competence for radical innovation, Journal of Engineering and Technology management
organisational learning, critical analysis of strategic processes, alignment between strategy and its implementation in the value chain, participation in decision making,
The second phase (strategic diagnostic) combines a method for analysing business environments (SWOT analysis) with a method for constructing scenarios (the Global Business Network.
SWOT analyses provide the foundations for defining alternative futures. The Global Business Network (GBN) method enables an assessment of the resources
and integration of results expected from the strategic diagnosis. SWOT analysis becomes robust in supporting strategy design
Such analysis is key to define the strategic objectives of the firm departing from the value perspectives of the BSC (i e. financial, customer, internal processes, learning and growth.
since there is a continual feedback loop between them that leads to constant reflection and analysis of results and,
Moreover, the insights generated via discussions with the managers were used to promote an indeept analysis of the existing BSC
the latter being responsible for describing the capability of a firm's knowledge system to solve problems using organisational learning. 4 In the proposed system the method of perpetual budget 38 offers such characteristics as it supports the analysis of cause
The analysis of strengths and weaknesses (SWOT analysis) stimulated an important reflection in terms of the future via the application of the Global Business Network scenarios.
Moreover, the timeframe of the analysis provided by the system proposed is, like any other BSC, most often short-term (usually five years or less).
let alone to perform such an analysis including partners and stakeholders'views of what the future might entail
Hence, it should effectively enable the overall system under analysis (i e. value chain) and individuals to become adaptive over time.
the renewed system with embedded FTA supports the system under analysis (i e. value chain) to undertake systemic transitions
-based assessment of the external environment 60 SWOT analysis 26 There is a lack of any system to define measures linked to consistent targets 58,59 Quality Function Deployment (QFD) 58 SWOT analysis
26 Analysis of scenarios 68 Performance Prism 33 The balanced scorecard fails because of difficulties that are encountered during the implementation phase 1,
S v. Marinho, C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 59 5 S v. Marinho, L. M. S. Campos, P m. Selig, Critical analysis
a content analysis of 26 years of strategic management research, International Journal of Management Reviews 10 (2008) 1 23.17 V. C. Prieto, M m.
with SWOT analysis, and implementing Sun Tzu's the art of business management strategies on QFD methodology,
a framework for management control systems research, Management Accounting Research 10 (1999) 363 382.60 H. Norreklit, The balance on the balanced scorecard a critical analysis of some of its assumptions, Management Accounting
Then, the approach for the analysis is outlined, the CIM is introduced as an analytical framework and the categorization of foresight is explained.
Second, different cases can be used to cover the extremes of the unit of analysis, in our case‘networked foresight'.
the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main
In this analysis, level 1 of the CIM is applied since it comprises a direct link between futures research and innovation.
The CIM provides a common basis for the analysis of the three cases and reveals the stages of development of networked foresight in the different cases.
strategic positioning of Rijkswaterstaat vis-a vis other organizations and decision making about exploitation of inventions Singular activity 1. 3 Business case analyses Used for sensibility analyses
including methodologies combining scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies.
, scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping Project 2. 3 Thematic innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and topics in a predefined thematic field Project 2. 4 Working group Provide a setting to explore future topics
plans and evaluates new business modeling concepts Singular activity 2. 6 Business case analysis Provide revenue,
Fig. 1 visualizes the analysis of WINN in terms of its openness and network orientation. 5. 1. 1. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities were limited to workshops, moderated discussions and other meetings either as stand-alone events or as series of events (activity 1. 4). Predominantly,
The opponent role was addressed ancillary within business case analyses (Fig. 2). Two factors were identified to significantly influence the results of the foresight activities.
(&) & Contract partners 1. 3 Business case analyses & (&) Contract partners 1. 4 Series of future workshops & (&) Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
Based on the CIM evaluation and the futures research activity analysis the following conclusions can be drawn for the EIT ICT Labs:
& Contract partners 2. 6 Business case analysis & (&) Contract partners 2. 7 Networking on demand & Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
and analyses and the illustration above the following observations can be made. In the WINN program a set of short-term,
the analysis implicates that networked foresight activities are more likely to be activities with a certain degree of continuity, i e.,
empirical and quantitative analyses are needed in order to ensure reliability and generalizability of any conclusions. References 1 R. Cooper
impact checklists, state of the future index, multiple perspectives assessment Matrices Analogies, morphological analysis, cross-impact analyses Statistical analyses Risk analysis, correlations Trend analyses Growth
, complex adaptive systems modelling, chaotic regimes modelling, technology diffusion or substitution analyses, input output modelling, agent-based modelling Logical/causal analyses
Requirements analysis, institutional analyses, stakeholder analyses, social impact assessment, mitigation strategising, sustainability analyses, action analyses (policy assessment), relevance trees, futures wheel
Decker and Ladikas, 2004) Valuing/decision-aiding/economic analyses Cost-benefit analysis, SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) and scorecard analyses (Sripaipan, 2006), analytical hierarchy process, data envelopment analysis, multicriteria decision analyses Combinations Scenario-simulation (gaming),
trend impact analysis Introduction Science and Public policy February 2010 5 Six functions of FTA for policy-making are:
The analysis leads to specific process recommendatiion for national horizon scannings related to how data are gathered, analysed, synthesised and used.
Their analysis is based on the results of two surveys of selected international foresight practitiioner and leading foresight organisations, conduccte by Canada's Office of the National science Advisor and the Telfer School of management at the University of Ottawa,
The methods combined bibliometric analysis, an online survey and a scenario building in order to better understand the factors involved in the initiation and spread of emerging diseases.
using future mobile applications as a casestuudy The analysis is based on the results of the Reseaarc on Mobile Applications and Services project,
This paper is reworked a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:
There is deeper analysis of weak signals and of the possible interaction of all scanned issues and their relevance for strategic decision-making.
The NISTEP exercise combines this broad-scope foresight with a thorough analysis of strengths and weaknesses of Japanese research and development (R&d
Well-known examples include the Internaationa Council for Science (2002) exercise that focused on societal issues and research agenda settiin and also its foresight analysis (International council for science, 2004.
and create a common corpus for further analysis a joint database was developed on basis of the Sigma Scan of the UK Foresight HSC.
Policymakker are encouraged to expose their analysis to possible future trends to prepare themselves better. Alert policy-makers to forgotten
Part of the HSC engagement with the client will be an analysis of scan data (and data from other speciaalis sources) relevant to the client's policy domaain Depending on the issues encountered in this analysis,
workshops may be organised with different stakeholders, providing a broad range of inputs to the policy and creating relevant new networks that cross not only policy domains
but also scientific discipllines The involvement of client departments and their own future analysis is considered to be mutualll advantageous:
and public policy high-impact issues Further Communication events New material Issue analysis and synthesis Workshop Cross-linkages With policy Themed Scenarios Extranet Peer review Discussion groups Updated database Finalised Themed Scenarios Final database Reports and multimedia Output data analysis phase
Review phase Delivery phase Research phase OST Horizon scanning Centre Figure 1. Schematic design of UK horizon scan Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February
but also on potential breakthroughs, analysis of risks, uncertainties and unexpected events that are considered as potentially disruptive in the future.
The distribution of the issues over the different categories in each scan is shown in Table 3. Analysis of the joint data
We can conclude with an example of an analysis by the joint scan. The growing energy demand and uncerttaint in energy supply is not only related to the scarcity of some of these resources,
Foresight analysis. Available at<http://www. icsu. org/Gestion/img/ICSU DOC DOWNLOAD/371 dd file foresight analysis. pdf>,last accessse 1 june 2009.
As a result we have focused our analysis on the following sub-sectors (Mateos-Garcia et al.
a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.
The sector analysis was carried out by the project team through literatuur review and expert interviews. The first findings were submitted then for assessment by a large numbbe of experts via a broad participatory tool, the Delphi survey.
In the initial sector analysis, impact chains were studied, although not in a systematic way, so as to gain an in depth understanding of the sector and its transformation.
The Delphi was meant to help reduce the uncertainntie associated with some of the impacts we came across in the analysis. Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi Scenario development Policy analysis Issues analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC
Sector analysis The first step in our process is the analysis of the sector in terms of the actors, business models, technollog trends, societal developments,
we completed our understanndin with an assessment of the European positiio both in qualitative and quantitative terms, based on the analysis of company documents, business and policy reports.
The first phase of our analysis gave us an understanndin of ways in which ICT innovations challeeng traditional value chain structures and business models,
but further analysis was required to assess the role and impact of technology trends and user behaviour.
The analysis was successful in providing a picture of emerging trends that impact the creative content sector.
On the demand side our analysis revealed the contrras between the relatively stable, unchanging nature of consumer demands and the radical changes brought into the creative content sector by digital technologies,
However, the uncertainntie over the direction of change and the radically different consequences this could have on social and economic sustainability of the sector in Europe made it impossible after the analysis stage to draw any initiia conclusions upon
A similar analysis was carried out for books, music, audiovisual and cultural spaces. The results show variations in the interactions between technologies
Design of scenarios for the future The sector analysis carried out as the first step of the process
Analysis of issues The fourth step of our methodology consisted of the analysis of the scenarios with a view to identifyyin issues that may have an impact on the future sustainability of the sector
and analysis to ensure that the research focus reflected their main priorities. However, practitioners may try to preserve the status quo,
research and more particulaarl their analysis of the creative content sector, and Michael Rader for his overall contribution to the EPIS project.
This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technoloog Analysis:
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