calof@telfer. uottawa. ca and jesmith@telfer. uottawa. ca. This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technollog Analysis:
followed by our analysis and synthesis of the results. Conceptually, this study seeks to find the most successsfu foresight programs and study them.
designed and delivered in the period 2005 2006 was a survey of foresight leaders around the world identified from international meetinngs followed by an expert analysis that delved more deeply into best practices.
The second study aimed to extend the analysis by asking the following questions: What motivated your government's foresight effoort in the first place?(
and sub-national foresight exercises, followed by scenarios, analysis of trends and drivers and research priorities. There were also interesting differences observed.
Key success factors applied to Canadian foresight Key success factor Application analysis Significant and clear client:
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Nares Damrongchai, Ponpiboon Satangput, Greg Tegart and Chatri
and in combating EID were identified first by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning. Roadmaps of these technologies were built then.
More technically, dealing with biosecurity can be considered in terms of informatiio generation and collection, information managemment information analysis,
and the use of such analysis. Each of these covers a number of discipliine and requires the application of different technoloogies Furthermore,
a combinatiio of literature review/bibliometric analysis and online surveys were conducted to preliminarily captuur the trends of infectious diseases.
, Genomic Analysis, Biomedical Imaging) Bio-Info-Nano Converging Tech. e g.,, NEMS based Biochip) Figure 1. Examples of converging technologies, APEC Center for Technology foresight (www. apecforesight. org) 2006 Source:
and the key research domains Aim to get experts involved in verifying the trends of emerging infectiiou diseases resulted from bibliometric analysis Aim to capture the trends of emerging infectious diseases from the publication trends Phase
I Scenario planning Online survey Literature review+Bibliometric Analysis Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region's capacities that contribute to the successful prevention
Automated data collection and analysis Technology Lateral flow and other point of care devices, low cost Low cost tests of greater sensitivity, gene amplification Screening technologies
multi-agent diagnostic devices linked to automated data collection and analysis Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 49 APEC diagnosis center,
Conclusion Bibliometric analysis and scenarios have been used to study the factors involved in initiation and spread of EID within the framework of the EID life cycle model.
Increased effort is needed to improve the automaate analysis of surveillance data to enable early detection of outbreaks.
The specific combination of methods (bibliometric analysis, online survey, scenario, and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA.
Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights which provided scope and focus to the study.
Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis Katrien De Moor, Katrien Berte, Lieven De Marez, Wout Joseph, Tom Deryckere and Luc Martens The shift
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed, although‘the consumer'has always been important,
Her research interests and publications lie in the field of quantitative survey analysis, new media and advertissing She is currently working on a Phd thesis on advertisiin in a digital media environment based on the IBBT research project ADME (website<http://projects. ibbt. be/adme>).
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 53 of the diffusion theory has to do with its proinnovvatio bias and the assumed linearity of the innovaatio and adoption process.
from various disciplines (e g. design, foresight, fault tree analysis, anthropology etc. in order to support user-driven innovation.
and at a more latent level that are quite difficult to grasp User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 54 narrow and technology-centric scope of many projects.
i-City's User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 55 large-scale living lab was the main research location.
evaluation Figure 1. Schematic overview of the three research phases User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 56 activities and finds it difficult to identify with the life
from home to work Avoid traffic jams Buy petrol Take the children to school Travel abroad Book airline tickets Leisure travel Go on holiday User involvement in future technology analysis Science
Secondly, the clusters were ranked to identify the most promising application (s)/ cluster (s). A factor analysis (using the principal component analysis technique) of the interest shown by the 312 respondents in the 80 mobile city application (s) showed that this interest can be summarized in 21 factors,
Further and deeper analysis is certainly necessary in order to reach definite conclusions about the appeea of each of these applications.
the analysis yielded valuable insights into the appeal of certain types of application to certain user clusters, by means of profound analysis of interest,
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 58 disregarded, this choice illustrates that decisions are made sometimes at the expense of the user-centred rationale.
and conjoint analysis. The latter is used to determine which product features or attributes are considered to be most important
54/5 Tourist information (Tourist cluster) 3. 87/5 Mobile help for studies (and Work study cluster) 3, 43/5 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February
Q2, Q5 and Q6 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 60 Conclusion In this paper, we have focused on the shift from traditiiona technology push to more user-oriented and user
Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing, 13 (1), 32 49. De Marez, L and K De Moor 2007.
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 61 Latour B 1993. We Have Never Been Modern.
and Innovation (CTI) on the innovation performance of the supported firms based on a matched-pairs analysis of 199 firms supported by the CTI in the period 2000 2002.
To show this, we used matched-pairs analysis for a set of firms supported by CTI
The new elements in our analysis were: the use of innovation data for the subsidized firms, collected by means of a survey;
Jaumotte and Pain, 2005), a finding also confirmed by the meta-analysis by Garcia-Quevado (2004)
Switzerland Programme of promoting use of CIMT (CIM Programme, 1990 1996) 463 Matched-pair analysis (several alternative methods) Change in CIMT intensity (1990 1996):+
+for small firms no effect for large firms Czarnitzki and Fier (2002), Germany Public innovation subsidies in German service sector 210 Matched-pairs analysis (nearest
+Almus and Czarnitzki (2003), Germany R&d subsidies to East german firms (1994,1996, 1999) 622 Matched-pairs analysis (calliper matching) R&d intensity:+
b) matched-pair analysis Change in CIMT intensity (1992 1998:++for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms with low intensity of CIMT use Görg andstrobl (2007), Ireland R&d grants from (Industrial Development Agency (IDA) Ireland and Forbairt
no effect Bérubé and Mohnen (2007), Canada R&d tax credits versus R&d tax credits+R&d grants 584 Matched-pairs analysis (nearest neighbour matching) Firms with tax credits
Results of the matched-pairs analysis Comparison of the innovation performance of subsidized firms depending on the subsidy quotient Table 4 provides a qualitative summary of the resuult of the comparison of the innovation performannce as measured by six different
Conclusion Based on a matched-pairs analysis of 199 firms supporrte by the CTI in the period 2000 2002 and a control group of 996 firms that were supported not by the CTI,
The present analysis yields some information on three policyrellate issues: the type of enterprises that received subsidies from the CTI;
'Finally, see OECD (2006a) for an analysis more from the point of view of the policy-maker; Polt et al.
Lepori (2006) gives a longteer analysis of public research policy primarily with respect to universities and public research organizations.
an economic analysis based on Swiss micro data. Small Business Economics, 19 (4), 321 340. Arvanitis, S, H Hollenstein, N Sydow and M Wörter 2007.
Matched-pair analysis based on business survey data to evaluate the policy of supporting the adoption of advannce manufacturing technologies by Swiss firms, KOF Working Paper No. 65, July 2002.
A meta-analysis of the econometric evidence. Kykloos 57 (1), 87 102. Georghiou, L and D Roessner 2000.
a long-term analysis for The swiss case. Science and Public Policcy 33 (3), 205 216. Nelson, R R 1959.
This is instanced by the recent reframing of FTA from contributing to evidence-based policy towards a greater emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives.
and collection and analysis of weak signals and wild cards has been facilitated by the rapid expansion of social networking capacities and online tools,
and lack of adequate analysis of the knowledge generated an illustraatio of the tension between the managed expertise of scientific processes,
and it combines analysis of enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with empirical analysis of the policy instruments that are utilised currently.
The outcomes of the process can be strategies to implement a novel policy instrument or a strategy for a region to engage in an active market creation in the context of some promising emerging technology.
The authors provide an analysis of the effectiveness and limitations of a number of different horizon scanning approaches applied in a European commission funded Framework programme project (SESTI).
and how to facilitaat collective sense-making in their analysis which is relevant to policy recommendations?
This starts with the correct identification of factors associated with the subject under analysis, including its nature and scope, time horizon, intended applications of the results by clients etc.
which will support further analysis in the future. The main phase is where most information interpretattio will take place
and understand possible futures associated with the main issues under analysis. In this phase, it is vital to apply collective intelligence procedures,
using Delphi technique and considering four dimensions of analysis: techno-economic, strategic, environmental and social Identification of an initial list of 63 technological topics Identification of seven priority technological topics, considdere‘robust'Multi-criteria analysis:
identified technological topics were evaluated using hierarchical criteria and analysis of robustness Final report and dissemination of results Water resources Establishment of ST&I priority agenda aimed at guiding future investments made by governmental agencies in six predefined themes Quality
of superficial water; rationalization of use of water in rural areas; quality of underground water; products and equipment;
discussion and prioritization of results in an integrated format Analyses of recommendations of each panel compared to previous Brazilian foresight studies and international information Final report and dissemination of results Biotechnology Mapping
Analyses and synthesis of the information obtained were made and the results were discussed with FINEP's senior management,
wild cards, SWOT analysis, roadmapping, web survey and interviews, expert panel, conference and workshops, multi-criteria and stakeholder analysis, indicator developmeent benchmarking,
regarding the whole process, from methodology development to the analysis and validation of the results obtained..
studies and analyses related to specific issues directly or through consultants. The process was, indeed, very participatory and involved internal and external stakeholders in a continuoou process of adding value to the information obtained,
The main challenge is to introduce long-term perception and analysis to foster strategic foresight of interest to the state more than a given government structure.
>References Brummer, H. L. 2005)‘ A dynamic competitive analysis model for global mining firms',Doctor of commerce thesis, University of South africa.
a modest connection between research and commercialization (for analyses of the transition see Feigenbaum 2003;
The Development Research center under the State Council (DRC), a think tank, also contributes to setting overall policy directions through its analyses.
a framework for analysis'.In: Simon, D. and Goldman, M. eds) Science and Technology in Post-Mao China.
but follow Malerba's analysis (Malerba 2005) and explore the changes in the relationships between these components over time.
as well as their analysis of the role of national institutions in the development of an innovaatio system.
Technological generatiion diffusion and utilization are at the core of the analysis. Comparing the energy innovation systems of Germany, Sweden and The netherlands,
was applied for the deeper analysis of the medical functions (e g. chemical activities) of single herbal extracts.
Their rigorous and constant support fundamentaall incentivized the writing of this paper and considerabbl increased the depth of the analysis of the innovation systems.
A scheme of analysis',Research policy, 37: 407 29. Boschert, K. and Gill, B. 2005)‘ Germany's agri-biotechnology policy:
Concepts, Issues and Analyses of Six Major Sectors in Europe, pp. 9 35. Cambridge: CUP..(
and Analyses of Six Major Sectors in Europe, pp. 73 119. Cambridge: CUP. National Taiwan University (2000)‘ The history of Medical College in National Taiwan University'(.
Innovation system analysis often takes as its starting point the system's structure. It is here that innovation system failures that demand policy attention tend to be identified,
Bergek et al. 2008) have recommended the functions of innovation system as an alternative point of analytical departure. 1 Such functional analysis,
which is intended to supplement rather than substitute for more traditional structural analysis, implies a focus on the dynamics of
A scheme of analysis',Research policy, 37: 407 29. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
Edquist, C. 2008)‘ Design of innovation policy through diagnossti analysis: Identification of systemic problems (or failures)',CIRCLE Electronic Working Paper Series 2008/06.
the individual level of analysis will not be addressed in this paper. This simplified conceptual frame allows consideration of variants of FTA
The analysis will clarify the potential of different institutional models for tackling different types of future requirements.
Capturing new types of FTA systems in the light of specific circumstances This section introduces the conceptual framework for subseqquen analysis of recent empirical research on FTA systems.
and organisational models of FTA) a conceptual frame is developed for analysis in the empirical part of this paper. 2. 1 The fast-changing context:
In our analysis these basic‘forces'are transposed to the societal (governance) level, allowing a deeper understanding of how governance exercises influennc in the system.
and strategies for, handling disruptive and structural transformations. 2. 4 Framework for analysis of FTA systems The three dimensions introduced in the previous sections constitute the conceptual framework for analysing the suitabiilit of different types of FTA systems
The analysis identifies the types of transformations addressed, the governance modes in which FTA is embedded and the organisational Table 2. Framework for analysis of FTA systems Dimensions Transformation types Organisational models of FTA Governance modes Sub-categories.
Disruptive. Ongoing processes. Gradual by design. Rapid by design. External services (projects and programmes. Networks. Institutionalisation. Co-existence.
While the number of papers selected for analysis is limited, the FTA conferences3 repressen focal points for addressing issues of how FTA is embedded in governance processes,
The analysis of the selected papers on FTA attests to the richness of approaches in relation to different types of transformatiions governance modes
and consequent models on organising FTA ACTIVITIES (see Table 4). Our analysis of the selected papers indicates an increasing emphasis in FTA objectives on improved understanndin of transformations.
our analysis shows increasing evidence of institutionalised forms of FTA and exploitation of FTA networks to provide agile and strategic support for decision-making. 3. 2 Reflecting on the way forward with FTA systems The above review of recent research work indicates a consideerabl diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems with coexisting diverse
A faster and continuous analysis and translation into actions of future challenges and opportunities is needed thus.
Based on this, a framework of analysis was developed for tracing the evolution of FTA systems. Empirical research highlights a diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems in practice,
Calof, J. 2012)‘ Towards developing an instrument to evaluate Future technology Analysis A Canadian case study',Technological forecasting and Social Change (forthcoming.
it commissioned a meta-analysis of the results of several existing national foresight exercises with the aim of identifying future priority areas for international science cooperation (Teixera et al. 2002.
In particular, the megatrend and key drivers analyses have been important in framing and articulating the challenges to be faced by international science cooperation over the coming decades.
The new plan also includes commitments to engage the ICSU memberrshi in continuing foresight analysis
which the exercise had tried to incorporate major shocks or extreme events (commonly known as‘wild cards')in its analyses.
and from the EC-funded iknow project dedicated to the collection and analysis of wild cards and weak signals (iknow 2011).
2011b)‘ ICSU Foresight Analysis Report 1: International Science in 2031 Exploratory scenarios'.'Paris: International council for science. iknow. 2011)‘ iknow ERA Toolkit:
Analysis and Recommendations',report to the European Science Foundation. Strasbourg: European Science Foundation. van‘t Klooster, S. A. and van Asselt, M. B. A. 2006)‘ Practising the scenario-axes technique',Futures, 38:15 30.
The idea of IPRM is to integrate the analysis of technological change and the analysis of the wider societal setting and to enable systematic analysis of future-oriented ideas that could spring either from technological development, policy practices or more generic societal development.
IPRM builds on two cultures of roadmapping (on roadmapping, see Barker and Smith 1995; Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
with focus on user interfaces Automatic meter reading (AMR) Basic life cycle analysis software Basic home automation systems Green ICT traffic solutions:
driving style monitoring, CO2 emission analysis, route applications High-end videoconferencing solutions and services Carbon footprint calculators Simulation solutions Services based on smart
and services Skype and social media based solutions are challenging the teleconferencing solutions Basic life cycle analysis software Ecodesign tools Integrated industrial production becoming mainstream,
and to show the different roles that foresiigh plays (see Table 4). A more detailed analysis of the Table 3. Dimensions of policy co-ordination
and gap analysis. The sustainability of the FPU is intended to be achieved by having the SCAR Collaborative Working group Animal Health
and access to research programmes and results across all countries Mapping and analysis of existing foresight exercises for urban regions and for other non-region specific topics relevant for urban development allows gaps
which can change during process accordiin to upcoming needs Analysis of current time horizon of existing programmes reveals a lack of longer term foresights.
and research needs beyond initial analysis Development of scenarios for long-term urban developments Establishment of an UEF,
A gap analysis on missing future outlooks may propose additional studies at regional, national or transnational level.
and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could assess with an internet-based decision support tool.
Recomposition of smaller units of analysis was carried out in workshops, in order to first, identify similarities and interdependences between proposed research issues;
by way of using commonly agreed units of analysis. Within the modules, which are conducted in parallel,
The analysis and discussion may be of similar relevance to forms of transnational research programming between nations outside Europe
For an analysis of the link between innovation strategies and economic performance, see Dahlman (2008. 4. The four steps used by ERA NET (European research area-NET) are:.
systematic exchange of information and good practices on existing programmes and activities. identification and analysis of common strategic issues. planning and development of joint activities between national and regional programmes. implementation
often supported by regional foresigght Such strategies also include the analysis of potential partners in other regions
A set of examples of internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of all sorts in future-oriented technollog analysis can be found in Haegeman et al.
while the creative function enables the reassembly of issues or the creation of new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integratiio of scan data.
methods and networks for effective scanning and analysis. 2 Horizon scanning places great emphasis on building a holistic framewoor
It comes close to the concept of future narratives as used by Van der Steen (2008) in his political discourse analysis. Van der Steen (2008) sees future narratives as‘stories about what the future,
where text-mining can be used as a tool for analysis. It is important is that the search profile is focused on the selection of sources to be used (wiki,
scientific articles, statisttica analysis, trend reports and foresight exercises. The storyline may address conflicts or common interests as well as emotional, ethical and legal aspects.
Search engines and text-mining can be applied without the involvement of wider groups outside the project core team (nonparticiipatory) The second way of grouping involves the identification, processing and analysis of weak signals and emerging issues with the help of various levels of automation.
In order to place the analysis of the different approaches and tools that were used in their correct context,
Phase 3 is devoted to the analysis and interpretation of emerging issues with relevance for policy-making.
Policy-makers interviewed at the start of the SESTI project noted that it is important that the analysis of emerging issues considers the possibilities to manage emerging issues
and analysis phases where there is an explicit focus on certain fields and issues. Comparing the SESTI experience with experiences from other horizon scanning processes,
However, online software tools for clustering Twitter tweets are necessary, especially for the processing and analysis phases,
This is particularly relevant for the analysis and interpretation phase. Text-mining, as noted above, needs more sophisticated tools to capture the emerging and novel nature of weak signals.
Timing seems to be a general challenge with early signal analysis. Due to the novelty of issues the evidence basis at the beginning is rather weak
Analysis and interpretation Focused expert review High High High Wiki Low Low Low Twitter High low Low Surveys Low High High Conferences Low Medium High
while others fit better into the analysis phase (cf. Table 2). In this regard an evaluation across the different approaches and methods is difficult as their success is highly contextual.
or even create new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integration of scan data.
and through interactions and discussions within experts and networks about implications Text-mining enables either‘bottom-up'analysis (from scratch)
Selection of which documents to include is crucial especially in‘bottom-up'analysis. Focused expert review is predefined based on reference frame Predefined criteria reflected in survey questions,
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
as well as to maintain close interaction between the clients of the analysis (e g. decision/policy-makers) and those undertaking the scanning task.
University School of Science, Department of mathematics and Systems analysis, PO BOX 11100,00076 Aalto, Finland 3eu DG JRC-IPTS, Seville, Spain;
and propose the use of narrower‘units of analysis'that are more amenable to subsequent analyses.
Seen from this perspective, sense-making can be supported partly by defining units of analysis that facilitate the collection of individual observaation and,
or network models in the analysis of interrelationships), whereby the role of such methods is to foster sense-making
which evolved gradually from initial exchanges of relevant foresight studies to more systemaatic comprehensive scanning and detailed analysis of reports,
and policy implications. 3. 1 Identification of Issues BEPA and JRC-IPTS initiated the analysis in six broad areas following the structure of previous work that had been delivered to BEPA by other EC services.
and outlining them for further analysis..Bilateral and collective discussions between experts and JRC-IPTS helped to synthesize relevant issues into an interim report.
4 3. 3 Analysis of issues In order to support the identification of most pertinent issues, the expert assessments were synthesized with the RPM tool (Liesio et al. 2007;
Specifically, based on a comparative analysis of the overall values Vjðwþ for different criterion weights, the RPM analysis helps identify.
Three different analyses were conducted to highlight different aspects of relevance: mean-oriented analysis, variance-oriented analysis and rare event-oriented analysis. In each analysis, attention was given particularly to the top-10 issues with the highest core index values among all
issues in a given area (there were 42 90 issues in the areas. 3. 3. 1 Mean-oriented analysis. Mean-oriented analysis helped identify issues that were considered relevant, novel and probable by the majority respondents,
whereby the criterion-specific scores v j i were obtained by taking the means of the respondents'assessments.
the core issues identified in this analysis seemed to be the most relevant for EU policy-making. 3. 3. 2 Variance-oriented analysis. Variance-oriented analysis was conducted
This analysis helped identify issues that the respondents did see similarly, which provided interesting inputs for debate in the final workshop. 226.
T. Ko nno la et al. 3. 3. 3 Rare event-oriented analysis. Rare eventorieente analysis was carried out to identify those issues that the respondents considered improbable but still novel
the scores for relevance and novelty were similar as in the mean-oriented analysis, but v j 3 was defined such that the issues with the lowest occurrence probabilities received the highest scores,
As a rule, this analysis helped to identify issues which were deemed unlikely but potentially of high significance in terms of their consequences.
All in all, the three complementary RPM analyses helped to highlight issues which were seen to merit attentiio from different perspectives
and by develoopin their own proposals for crosscutting challenges through interesting combinations of issues that were highligghte in the RPM analysis. With the help of the RPM web-applet,
and the borderline issues that had a core index value of>50%in one or more of the three analyses.
A major war by 2020, for instance, was a core issue in the rare event-oriented analysis
At least one of the three issues had to be among the top-10 core issues in one of the three different analyses,
the RPM analysis assisted in focusing on the most pertinent issues among which the workshop participants created novel interlinkagge by formulating crosscutting challenges and by envisioonin corresponding EU policies and actions in domains such as:
A reconsideration of the policy agenda of BEPA, together with a collective analysis of all issues
=mean-oriented analysis, V=variance-oriented analysis, R=rare eventorieente analysis Facing the future: Horizon scanning. 227 the individual crosscutting challenges proposed by workshop participants into five categories and then, on the second day of the workshop,
particularly when describing grand challenges that have to be addressed through European policy-making. 4. Implications for horizon scanning The recent proliferation of horizonscanning activities is linked partly to the popularity of the‘wisdom of the Table 2. Example of a crosscutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses
font styles of issue codes refer to results obtained in different RPM analyses(<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/survey issues. pdf,
2012) concluded that the analysis of signals and emerging issues as well as ensuing workshops need to be structured around specific policy challenges
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