Wild cards may also be introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups to adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business or social environments.
Decision-makers need a global vision of the future that addresses financial structures, climate change, poverty, etc''.
''If the program has built-in channels such that decision-makers feel ownership and are ready to take notice it seems to have a greater impact.
-and decision-making to attend and learn about the latest advances in and applications of FTA.
and in all components of public and private decision-making. 4. Conclusions The interviews conducted as a component of the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16 17 october 2008 provide a clear insight into the current state of the FTA
There is a widespread recognition of the need to introduce into the processes of government and corporate decision-making a much stronger orientation,
Many decision-makers remain ignorant of or unpractised with these tools, and may well resort to other guides to the future,
There is therefore an urgent need for even greater efforts to inform decision-makers of the potential value of FTA APPROACHES.
and persuading decision-makers of the value of FTA APPROACHES. This signals a need for the major focus of FTA to be moved from the twin goals of methodology refinement
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
and methods can be used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making. They highlight the importance of assessing the potential effects of policy interventions to anticipate unintended effects
and to reduce risks and uncertainties in transport decision-making. In a second paper, Horton argues that policy-making needs to assume that unexpected disruptive events will happen even with the best horizon scanning system in place.
it has to be noted that using numerical values to support decision-making may be preferred a procedure but that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets,
to provide knowledge for decision-making. Potential effects of policy interventions should be assessed; risk and uncertainties should be reduced;
or cost-benefit analyses are often quite clear to decision-makers, it seems that is not always understood in which way discursive methods can contribute to the improvement of planning processes.
risks and uncertainties Uncertainty and risk are only in very rare cases a consideration in transportation planning and transportation policy decision making.
and risks in decision making is the object of academic study and scientific debate (see for example Renn 2008) for a long time.
Generally speaking, the scholarly literature shows consistently that all decision making takes place under conditions of uncertainty
and that certainty in decision making is idealized only an limiting case. However for this paper we basically want to link theory to practical application.
which is rooted often in the knowledge-base of decision making 1. 3. The methods:‘‘‘‘structurally open''versus‘‘structurally closed''The transport system is embedded in the broader social, economic and environmental systems.
and as a web of Table I Knowns and unknowns in decision-making Category Unknown unknowns Known unknowns Knowns Description Most features of the situation neither known nor well-defined (options, their possible consequences, reliability of information,
But these methods aim at improving the epistemic basis of decision making by focussing mainly on the categories of known unknown
also termed multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) or multi-objective decision-making. MCA is structured a decision-making tool developed
and used in complex and conflicting situations where multiple criteria are involved (Mendoza et al.,1999). ) It is considered often as an alternative
Scenarios help to reflect on the consequences of decision-making. They can serve as arenas, where certain policy interventions are tested''to get a better understanding of the related causal relations and of the anticipated effects.
A PAGE 290 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 broad range of tools and methods exists that are used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making by trying to anticipate such effects.
For transparent decision making procedures it is crucial to make preferences values and normative assumptions visible as far as possible.
Hansson, S. O. 1996),‘Decision making under great uncertainty'',Philosophy of Science, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 369-86.
Kleindorfer, P. R. 2008),‘Reflections on the decision making under uncertainties'',Faculty and Research Working Paper, INSEAD, Fontainebleau, available at:
-105. von Schomberg, R. 2005),‘The precautionary principle and its normative challenges'',in Fisher, E.,Jones, J. and von Schomberg, R. Eds), The Precautionary principle and Public policy Decision making, Edward
and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).
It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
This method fits very well for the use of public decision-makers since it allows comparing and reflecting between different policy alternatives that all are able to produce the determined development goals.
The decision-makers have a huge variety of issues to deal with and one cannot expect the politicians
and the decision-makers might be tempted to focus on a particular scenario. Another risk of this approach is that calculations and assessment of, for example,
Using numerical values to support decision-making is preferred a procedure but it has to be noted that the longer the reviewed time horizon gets,
Using scenarios in decision-making is ideally a continuous process rather than a onetime exercise. External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed
This case shows some of the problems caused by connections to the decision making apparatus. Firstly,
When urban planning operates in a context with a rigid legal framework, excessive public intervention and public and private decision-makers acting in opaque and arbitrary ways,
future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.
and disseminate knowledge deriving from the foresight exercises amongst stakeholders and political decision-makers. In spite of the above-mentioned advantages, territorial foresight has clear limitations.
Likewise, several articles by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies have drawn attention to the potential of territorial foresight for decision making at the regional level (IPTS
or just perceived as a trivial set of tools that do not provide much added value to the urban decision making processes.
which most citizens participate in public decision-making. In this scenario, Spanish society gives priority to human and social requirements over purely consumption-oriented needs.
Progress is reflected by transparent decision-making, effective public participation, public-private co-operation and better coordination among different levels of administration.
the scope of legal research supporting policy decision-making tends to be rather restrictive, looking solely to the immediate past in order PAGE 336 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 336-351, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
in order to give decision-makers a better, integrated picture and multiple perspectives on the hard problems we are facing''(Helbing, 2011).
i e. to create a greater awareness of the possible implications of human-decision making''(Helbing, 2011).
Finally, Futurict will also build a‘‘Global Participatory Platform''in order to support the decision making of policy makers, business people and citizens,
and assist decision making and political participation processes. In effect, the use of modelling systems corresponds to one of the most recent trends in FTA.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville. Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
and new governance structures are evolving, reflecting growing interdependence and complexity and the need for decision-making under uncertainty.
whose results can be fed back into the scientific, technological and also societal decision-making and agenda-setting processes.
Although earlier conferences had focused in a rather self-reflexive manner on future perspectives for FTA (2004 and the impact of fta on decision-making (2006,2008),
3 Other examples are immersive decision theatres (offering a virtual environment facility to visualise output of predictive and scenario-based models with the aim to support decision-making (Edsall and Larson
and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making through inclusive dialogue. They see a key role for FTA APPROACHES and methods in this.
Decision-making in a virtual environment: Effectiveness of a semi-immersive Decision Theater in understanding and assessing human environment interactions. http://www. cartogis. org/docs/proceedings/2006/edsall larson. pdf (accessed 6 august 2012).
Retrospective narratives make decision-makers believe that future has been predictable before and that they are able to predict the future also now (Bukszar 1999).
As decision-making tends to be inherently a political process, it is believed often that conflict can be reduced by decision processes that emphasise data and facts.
and decision-makers have to learn to maintain an agnostic attitude and simultaneously apprehend alternative scenarios.
Weak signals as a flexible framing space for enhanced management and decision-making. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 307 20.
Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
The basic idea is that decision-making in firms and policy-settings will benefit from explorations of the future (Gordon,
matching environmental uncertainty Riccardo Vecchiato*Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy This paper explores how strategic decision-makers select
Thompson 1967) have emphasised long the role of the environment as a major source of uncertainty for strategic decision-makers in charge of coping with emerging opportunities and threats.
and processes that assist decision-makers in the task of charting the company's future course of action (Coates, Durance, and Godet 2010;
Milliken (1987) distinguishes between three types of uncertainty that act together to determine the overall uncertainty faced by strategic decision-makers.
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
we analysed the foresight activities of each firm in relation to uncertainty and drivers of change in its business environment and the use of strategic foresight in decision-making.
Foresight and decision-making Decision-makers at BASF seamlessly embedded foresight activities in the strategy formulation process. Scenarios are combined usually with the formulation and evaluation of strategic options,
Foresight and decision-making The main goal of strategic foresight at Philips is to drive the renewal of the organisation by figuring out how to exploit the new market opportunities enabled by emerging technologies or in response to changing customer needs.
our findings offer the broad outline of a conceptual framework regarding how decision-makers match strategic foresight with environmental uncertainty.
and decision-makers have gained a sound grasp of the main components of their industry, they might start using traditional foresight techniqque (e g. roadmaps in the case of Philips)
our findings suggest that decision-makers facing discontinuous drivers of change and boundary uncertainty are more likely to focus their predictive efforts on environmental scanning
Decision-makers facing continuous drivers of change or discontinuous drivers of which they have solved already boundary uncertainty might eventually exploit scenarios
The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
Finally, Section 5 summarises the main conclusions and outlines implications for policy and subsequent decision-making. 2. Analysis of existing tools and their gaps Since the 1990s, a range of tools have been brought in to help companies design their path
and risk that accompanies any form of decision-making. Foresight demands thatwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'be in mind constantly.
heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
comply with speed requirements-Individual learning to comply with functional roles-Information improve decisions-Team learning promoted to improve decision-making
and support decision-making effectively by using models, such as sympoiesis, that emphasise the creative aspect of living systems which,
and interactions to take place across business networks to support effective decision-making: this is paramount. Consequently, firms will be enabled to anticipate
The implications for policy and decision-making are manifold. Regardless of seeing the world based on three interdependent pillars businesses,
and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making, through inclusive dialogue, which can be achieved through FTA APPROACHES and methods (Cagnin et al. 2008).
so it can establish future capability of analysis and decision making processes. Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities.
Impact on policy and decision making. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 457 61. Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group (Alan L. Porter, Brad Ashton, Guenter Clar, Joseph F. Coates, Kerstin Cuhls, Scottw.
and society in addition to politics, combining their perspectives at an early stage to explore promising pathways for politic decision making.
it emerged as a grand challenge reflecting key uncertainties of senior decision-makers operating in a small state as it adapted to changing external conditions in economics and governance.
and influence on policy decision making. Design/methodology/approach The three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal.
Findings The paper concludes that implementation of these three interrelated studies allows identification of S&t&i priorities that have a strong connection with policy decision making.
Originality/value For the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.
and a description of specific innovation projects was required for policy decision-making. Therefore for this additional investigation the RF Ministry of Education and Science initiated the second cycle of the National S&t Foresight until 2030.
B Direct impact (medium) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at Ministry level (corresponding decisions could concern the forming of a research agenda, budget allocation, etc..
B Direct impact (high) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at government level for the development of national strategic documents.
and to supplement the results received from the previous project. 4. The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making As can be seen above,
promising innovation projects and other information required for policy decision-making. These tasks were solved in the FS2 framework.
The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends, whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.
because the results were used for decision-making at the level of the Ministry. At the same time the FS2 project showed that for full use of the priorities identified for the natural resources sector,
Table IV The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making Influence on policy-making Evaluation of influence on policy-making FS1 The foresight data were used as an information source for many political purposes:
because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
which however could not be used directly in decision-making. A clear need was highlighted for more detailed analysis of future demand for human, financial and other types of resources for S&t development.
The results of this project were strongly related to policy decision-making, and some strategic documents (Geologic Strategy, Water Strategy) were prepared on the basis of the output of the study.
So, the analysis showed the synergy of all three projects help to achieve results that had a strong influence on policy decision-making.
Therefore for better connection to policy decision-making one might conclude that a common widespread national Delphi survey for the identification S&t priorities (which was our FS1) should be complemented by the identification of key long-term demand for resources
Martino, J. P. 1983), Technological forecasting for Decision making, 2nd ed.,North Holland, Amsterdam. Nelson, R. 1997), Why Do Firms Differ
and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis.
and to support decision-makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. The first part of this introductory paper considers the potential roles of fta in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and fundamental transformations,
when analysing the potential of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to assist societies, decision-makers and businesses to tackle fundamental, disruptive transformations, in general,
The main objective of FTA projects is to assist decision-makers with relevant analyses, observations and new ideas to be prepared better for the future (assuming that it can be predicted)
and that is a major benefit for decision-makers, be they directors of research institutes, deans and rectors of universities, business people, or policy-makers.
The challenge for FTA lies in the fact that the unstructured nature of grand challenges may not fit with the existing thematic structures of decision-making.
To what extent the current decision-makers and other major‘gatekeepers'would be open to launch and finance such exercises,
and accept recommendations possibly leading to fundamental changes e g. in terms of a radical redistribution of decision-making power?
and the increasing policy demand for robust evidence for decision-making indicate that there may be a momentum for pushing FTA towards integrating qualitative (QL) and quantitative (QT) approaches,
They analyse whether models can be used at all in decision-making under uncertainty. In this context they claim that Exploratory Modelling
and Analysis (EMA) is a methodology for analysing dynamic and complex systems and supporting long-term decision-making under uncertainty through computational experiments.
Policy-and other decision-makers should therefore devise and apply 383 C. Cagnin et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 more experimental approaches to creating new solutions
Cunningham and van der Lei 28 use such an approach for models providing support to decision-making on the selection of new technologies and discuss the issue of providing equilibrium between different groups of experts and stakeholders.
in order to reduce its distorting effects on the interpretation of evidence and its decision-making powers. There are two weaknesses in this claim.
Trust from policy-makers in outcomes from an FTA exercise may be undermined by differences between the expectations of decision-makers who should ultimately use the outcomes of FTA,
Similarly, decision-makers can claim that the wrong people were involved in a Delphi survey, or they simply distrust the foresight process,
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, 2008.28 S w. Cunningham, T. E. van der Lei, Decision-making for new technology:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 32 D. Rossetti di Valdalbero, The Power of Science economic research and European decision-making:
foresight and decision-making, in: Deliverable 3. 1 of EFONET Energy Foresight Network, 2009, Available at:
If TF is to aid in decision making robustness is vital. How might this TLC estimation method fit in with other FTA techniques?
Technol. 43 (1)( 2008) 157 162.4 J. P. Martino, Technological forecasting for Decision making, 3rd Edition Mcgraw-hill, New york, NY, 1993.5 A t. Roper, S w
or policies, that automatically adapt to changing conditions is called adaptive decision-making, respectively adaptive policy-making. In this paper, we propose an iterative computational model-based approach to support adaptive decision-making under deep uncertainty.
This approach combines an adaptive policy-making framework with a computational approach to generate and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques,
and computational models are used commonly to support decision-making and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
by an individual or group of actors, and‘policy-making'for the act or process of designing policies by those in charge of designing (public policy.
decision-making is more general than, and to some extent includes, policy-making. Although the approach proposed in this paper applies equally well to long-term decision-making as to policy-making,
we will, from here on, consistently refer to‘policy-making'and‘policies, 'for our work mainly focuses on policy-making
and more generally, decision-making under deep uncertainty. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces an adaptive policy-making framework and our Adaptive Robust Design approach.
In a recent special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change on adaptivity in decision-making, the guest editors conclude that Adaptive policy-making is a way of dealing with deep uncertainty that falls between too much precaution and acting too late.
The approach for developing adaptive policies as presented here shares characteristics with‘Robust Decision making (RDM)' 8
and to human and organizational decision-making 45. Here we focus on the competition between technologies. 3. 1. Introduction to the energy transition case
There is a growing awareness about the need for handling uncertainty explicitly in decision-making. The recent financial and economic woes have rekindled a wider interest in approaches for handling uncertainty.
there is also a certain degree of skepticism about the extent towhichmodels can be used for decision-making under uncertainty.
The presented case illustrates howmodels can be used to support decision-making, despite the presence of awide variety of quite distinct uncertainties and a multiplicity of plausible futures.
in order to assess the implications of these uncertainties for decision-making. The presented approach can easily be expanded ormodified For example, we used PRIMFOR the identification of both opportunities and vulnerabilities.
In his Phd research, he focuses on long term decision-making under deep uncertainty using the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis method.
whether models can be used at all in decision-making under uncertainty. In their agenda setting paper on FTA Porter et al. 1 note that there are many irreducible uncertainties inherent in the forces driving toward an unknown future beyond the short termand predictions need not be assumed to constitute necessary precursors to effective action.
the challenges associated with decision-making under deep uncertainty can largely be overcome. Instead of trying to predict,
In this way, decision-making can proceed despite the presence of deep uncertainty, for decisions can be designed to be robust across the explored range of possible futures.
This finding is troublesome to decision-making, for it implies that crises may be difficult to predict based on the monitoring of various exogenous developments.
for even roughly 6000 behaviors in case of 50,000 runs are still unwieldy for supporting decision-making.
In this section, a stylized version of this decision-making problem is explored. The purpose of EMA in this case is to help in the development of an adaptive plan for the long-term development of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol that is robust across the wide variety of uncertainties experienced by the airport. 3. 2. 1. Model
and decision-making by helping in anticipating and shaping future developments. The second case demonstrates how EMA can be used for guiding decision-making on plans that shape the long-term development of an airport.
That is, EMA can help organizations in preparing for and guiding their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to challenges and transformations.
Theoretically, the potential of EMA to FTA is its ability to cope with a multiplicity of deep and irreducible uncertainties in the analysis of decision-making problems
Uncertainty is recognized increasingly as being a major problem for the use of models in decision-making. The prime example being the role of uncertainty in relation to models used in the context of climate change debates.
while focusing on the consequences decision-makers care about most: the model outcomes. EMA can for example be used to iteratively reduce the expected bandwidth of model outcomes as in the second case presented.
Science, Decision making, and the Future of Nature, Island Press, WASHINGTON DC, 2000.3 G. Smith, Newton's philosophiae naturalis principia mathematica, in:
and decision-making and by facilitating dialogues between various stakeholders 4. The value of the scenario exercise depends on the ways in
However, the explicit and direct uses of scenarios in predefined decision-making contexts are just part of a broader social process 5. Also important indirect and diffuse links exist between developing
-be helpful in engaging decision-makers in specific issues, legitimating a chosen course of action, and supporting fruitful debates among stakeholders.
and decision-makers uncomfortable 7. How do we know whether we have credible and salient scenarios?
and using future scenarios provide evidence to decision-makers empowering the stakeholders involved? The three questions represent a specific perspective linking action and decision-makingwith issues of (i) emergence,
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
i e. window of opportunity, we looked at scenarios as a tool to support planning and decision-making.
and timeframe revealing windows of opportunity thus linking decision-making with future scenarios. The legitimizing aspect of this is the creation of a common understanding of challenges
and using future scenarios provide evidence to decision-makers empowering the stakeholders involved?.By questioning representation from a policy perspective and deconstructing future scenario practice,
especially by decision-makers Conventional Convention Agree on common accepted probabilities of change (rejecting extreme ideas) Strong on acceptance and alignment,
What is based good scenario decision-making? Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 70 (2003) 797 817.2 S. C. H. Greeuw, M. B. A. van Asselt, J. Grosskurth, C a m. H. Storms, N
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making-Seville 28 29,september 2006, 2006.4 H. S. Becker, Scenarios: a tool of growing importance to policy analysts in government and industry, Technol.
New Vistas for Qualitative Research Towards a Reflexive Methodology, Sage, London, 2000.29 P. De Smedt, Interactions between foresight and decision-making, in:
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006, 2006.30 H. Lawson, Reflexivity, The Postmodern Predicament, Open Court, La Salle, IL, 1985.31 J
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making Seville 16 17,october 2008, 2008.62 K. Borch, F. Mérida, Dialogue in foresight:
monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making, Futures 38 (2006) 908 924.73 C. Prell, K. Hubacek, M. S. Reed, C. Quinn, N. Jin, J
sense-making and decision-making in late modernity, Futures 38 (2006) 350 366.77 P. De Smedt, Can Negotiating the Future Influence Policy and Social change?
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011