& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 As FTA is understood commonly as an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action,
although the role of these processes differs significantly with regard to decision making. The function of these participatory processes can be seen as part of acceptance politics 57 that attempts to increase acceptance of emerging technologies.
Future oriented activities that are linked not directly with decision making in policy such as public engagement activities organized by researchers in the US
Policy Res. 28 (2011) 197 217.24 M. Powell, D. L. Kleinman, Building citizen capacities for participation in nanotechnology decision-making:
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 75 (2008)( 2008) 457 461.4 In:
Both papers focus on enhancing the impact of fta on decision-making and in particular improving the‘‘embedding of Foresight into policy making processes''goals that have resonated strongly in all four FTA conferences.
All of which threatens to undermine the credibility and relevance of anticipatory thinking for decision-making. With this challenge in mind
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 6 One of the most comprehensive and acknowledged studies of national styles in management, decision making
and improve the decision-making base for investments in technology development in Denmark. The project can be done in connection with public investments in technological service and in connection with larger interdisciplinary research groups, for example'.
, agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation. In most evaluative studies on foresight, the added value is addressed from a‘supply-driven'point of view, by
With respect to the policy cycle, we draw a distinction between the phases of agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making,
especially when it comes to connecting national foresight studies to decision-making. 3. 5 . Which levers and barriers do policy-makers perceive in applying foresight methods to strategic policy processes?
This makes it difficult for policy-makers from different government organisations to relate the results of studies of the future to decision-making and policy development,
Decision-making practices have to be deconstructed in order to‘prepare the field'.'According to Da Costa et al. it is very important to position foresight studies within the complex process of building
Universiteit Twente, 2010.22 J. W. Kooijmans, M. Rours, Decision making Under Uncertainty, Plandag 2011, Brussel, 2011.23 P. A. van der Duin, R. van
This principle ensures that foresight activities are connected to both local and international decision-making structures. Overall, due to the heterogeneity of global projects, all four principles must also be implemented in keeping with a scalable design approach. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
for instance, regarding the decision-making power of stakeholders due to the bottom-up aspects of the process. It is important
and the format by which decision-makers are approached and engaged in the exercise. The same is true
This means that there is a need to combine open participation with closed decision making processes. Moreover, there is also the need to adapt the process and results to changes in the environment.
thus flexibly accommodate diverse stakeholder interests. 6 Open and collective stages are those based on processes of collective information gathering, sense making, decision making, dissemination or implementation of results.
Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc
The overarching theme was the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, 2 placing emphasis on the delivery of valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES. 1. FTA assumptions,
and provide knowledge on the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making: It is becoming evident that FTA is a useful tool to facilitate,
and decision-making requires addressing the cloudy world of the relationship of knowledge to power. 4 http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/conclusions. html. 460 F. Scapolo et al./
This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
improved acceptance and social embedding of technology, broadly supported decision-making on innovation'.'At a more tangible level, it has been argued that active involvement of users helps to create a good fit between the needs, expectations,
this knowledge is crucial in view of strategic planning and decision making within innovation research. Therefore, lowering this uncertainty is an important challenge,
This intelligence can than serve as relevant input for decision making and strategic planning within the innovation trajectory.
and could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
organisational learning, critical analysis of strategic processes, alignment between strategy and its implementation in the value chain, participation in decision making,
we argue that embedding FTA in the system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
and was critical to support the decision making process. 3. 1. An example from the Brazilian State of Parana 3. 1. 1. Rationale The Government of the State of Parana'was selected
community satisfaction and participation in decision making. The former increased from 46%into 72, %and the later from 30%to 60%in relation to implementation of public policies. 3. 1. 4. Negative results The main problem occurred in the translation of
and interpret alternative options to support decision making. Also, in combining robust measures with learning and knowledge while monitoring the system and enabling it to become operational.
51 to support decision making. All this is critical to reconcile creativity and rational analysis 45. Also, to link learning
embedding FTA within the proposed system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
and its partners in the value chain considering alternative futures and building upon increased participation in decision making processes for applications such as:
Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
strategic positioning of Rijkswaterstaat vis-a vis other organizations and decision making about exploitation of inventions Singular activity 1. 3 Business case analyses Used for sensibility analyses
cost and profit projections in predefined cases to establish a basis of decision-making Project 2. 7 Networking on demand Identifies matching knowledge carriers in the partner network on demand,
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 2006.24 J. Hausschildt, S. Salomo, Innovations Management, 4th ed.,Vahlen, Munich, 2007.25 R. Solow, Technical change
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and decision-making. HE RECENT ONSET OF CRISES AND challenges ranging from climate change, finanncia and economic downturns,
in order to suit better the needs of decision-makers and their changing environment, and that there is an urgeen need to inform decision-makers of the potential value of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES (Johnston and Cagnin, 2010).
Therefore, the aim of this special section is to refine FTA METHODOLOGIES in order to increase their impact in policy-making.
identifying its different possible roles for policy and decision-making. It then formulaate a set of general recommendations with the intentiio of improving the policy impact of fta.
and decision-making FTA is a generic label that groups a number of forward-looking methodologies used to better T Karel Haegeman is at the Institute for Prospective Technologicca Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit, Edificio
and decision-making requires a clear definition of what this impact can be. At first sight, the degree of action-orientation of any FTA is likely to determine the degree of its impact on policy and decision-making.
However, other characteristics of FTA can influence its impaact depending on the functions of FTA in a particular context.
and decision-making With a view to improving the impact of fta on policy-making and thus on the extent to
but fits well with the observation that there is an increasing need for more holistic approaches to informing strateegi decision-making (e g. environmental scanning,
-and decision-makers (by supplying systematically gathered and analyyse data on opportunities, challenges and optioons to provide the basis for resilient
Stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels, to broaden their thinking,
and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting. COS had the task of facilitating cross-departmental foresight
to clarify the picture of the most relevant relationnship in a shared process (with the involvement of decision-makers) on a much earlier moment than usual
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Cassingena Harper, J 2006.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. European commission, Directorate-General for Research Scientiifi and Technological foresight 2006.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain Ministère de l'Écologie, de l'Energie, du Développement durable
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain. Schwarz, J O 2006.
not designed to directly influence political decision making, but to prepare knowledge that is relevant for decision making.
Given the range of defined goals and measures of success, one of the objectives of the research was to look at how the practitioners of foresight defined primary program success. After a comprehensive reviie of foresight evaluation
or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
and bridge building to move forward New decision-making structures, processes: i e. demonstrating new ways of governance
What is the relationship of foresight to governmeen policy and economic decision-making structures? What is the foresight funding model?
A key requirement is to develop foresight capacity amongst senior decision-makers so that they can integrate the important tools of technology foresiigh into advice to government.
advanced technollog firms or private sector advisors connected in some way to the national policy agenda and/or senior decision-makers.
and websites devoted to key stakeholders to an approach of getting in the elevator with key decision-makers to give them 60 second elevaato speeches.
medical imaging, decision-making techniques, future knowledge management systems, and project management. Greg Tegart has had a long and varied career.
so that decision-makers in each member economy of the APEC could invest in their R&d programs
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed,
A tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision-making is needed in the context of a fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment.
As a consequence, there is a growing need for the capacity to anticipate change to be embedded centrally in policy-and decision-making,
and pro-active policy action which can assist policy-and decision-makers in today's complex and interdependent environments.
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy Claudio Chauke Nehme1, 2,,
which aimed to support decision-makers in their activities, providing for increased confidence and credibility throughout the process.
decision-making; strategic intelligence; communication; mind-set transformation. 1. Introduction Exercises to explore the future are considered to be importaan for strategic planning, decision-making support and for public policy formulation,
as they allow for foreseeing breakthroughs, technology leaps, trends and discontinuities, new perspectives and opportunity maps present themselves to a corporation through identifying its challenges
and decision-making by developing a range of possible ways in which the future could unfold.
stakeholders'decision-making culture and management styles. These are aspects in relation to which a good communication approach may help make the difference between good and bad final results.
This paper discusses this decision-making environment and a relevant Brazilian Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 245 257 doi:
From this paper's point of view, the target is always the best combination between stakeholders and decision-maker involvement and intangible generation
decision-makers mainly those from the government tend to consider themselves confident enough to start making decisions.
A better reasoning process to support decision-making and strategy formulation. Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 247.
On account of its being strategically positiione very close to decision-making at the highest level, it displays a high capacity to mobilize experts, within and outside Brazil.
In addition, this methodological approach was based on the perception that decision-making emerges from a negotiaatio between multiple actors.
which must be considered in the formulation of policies, planning and decision-making. Martin, cited by Cuhls
which the main recommendations are fine-tuned with decision-makers in all their aspects, an implementation strategy is designed first,
resultiin from discussion and commitment among key stakeholdders expanding the perception of strategic options among the decision-makers.
in order to support decision-making and the drawing up of policies and strategic plans. The focus provided by the differential use of the timeline in prospective studies arises from the fact that these elements are likely to occur in the medium-and long-term,
and had attempted to make it possible for voices to be heard at all levels of decision-making..The quality of the contributions, at all levels, by far surpassed initial expectations..
taking into consideration the three types of decision-makers normally involved in these activities: governmment private sector, and academia.
when precompetitive technological programs reach government decision-making at high levels. Academia: representatives from universities and research institutions tend to impose barriers to accepptin strategic foresight activities.
Thirdly, the process of setting research priorities is characterized by a combination of central goal articulation top-down decision-making and decentralization
the system for allocating funding is suscepttibl to various forms of rent-seeking and even corruptiio in lieu of transparent decision-making mechanisms.
Today's mechanism for priority-setting in these countries is therefore a hybrid, sometimes drawing upon scientific expertise not only in low-level decision-making but also in the framing of societal challenges underlying science policy priorities (Pielke 2007),
2. 2 Governance of the S&t system An important element characterizing the governance of China's S&t system throughout the phases identified before is the strong involvement of China's top leaders in S&t decision-making.
-and decision-makers the potential to look across (disruptive) transformations which are required either as a solution to
Fig. 2 illustrates the inter-relatedness of these FTA roles with the innovation system functions outlined earlier in the paper (see Table 1). The inter-relations are summarised in the sub-sections that follow. 5. 1 Informing decision-making
or novel combinations of existing knowledge that can inform formal decision-making and priority setting processes. This can be thought of as the information role of FTA.
which decision-makers could then use to underpin their choices, by defining strategic research agendas, and by providing recommendations on the availabbl alternatives.
In the latter case decision-makers should work together with specialists, potential users and concerrne representatives of civil society.
in order to understtan how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruptions.
Van Rij 2010) together with the downscaling of national exercises and the embedding of FTA functions in organisations and their respective decision-making structures and processes.
i e. configurations of different elements required to deliver forward-looking intelligence in support of decision-making. FTA systems cover three levels of elements and the interdependencies between them
Driven by the need to explore certain technological, economic or societal developments of major concern to decision-makers,
There is an emerging stream of FTA ACTIVITY geared to providing future-oriented knowledge for decision-making on a more continuous Figure 2. Modes of governance (modified from Thompson et al. 1990.
However, in principle institutionalised FTA has the advantage of being embedded firmly further in policy and decision-making:
it can draw on a close and trustworthy relationship with decision-makers and gives access to insider knowledge of the embedding organisation that allows them to bring their FTA insights fully to bear
whereas a number of other methods are applied to develop future plans and action-oriented recommendations for decision-making.
there is a risk of cooptation of incumbent positions rather than exploring novel alternatives for decision-making.
in order to help FTA move closer to decision-making. As a consequence, the absorptive capacity in decision-making bodies needs to be enhanced,
calling for a change in organisational culture. Networks of FTA practice generate a range of positive impacts particularly in engaging external, often internatioonal experts in FTA.
and exploitation of FTA networks to provide agile and strategic support for decision-making. 3. 2 Reflecting on the way forward with FTA systems The above review of recent research work indicates a consideerabl diversity of FTA APPROACHES and systems with coexisting diverse
As a consequence, there is a growing need to embed this anticipatory capacity in policy and decision-making quickly,
and the accumulation of FTA knowledge needed to translate advice into political and administrative decision-making.
FTA in support of organisations'and institutioons embedding in decision-making is needed in the light of a fast-changing turbulent environment.
Exploring the balance between these three forms of FTA ACTIVITIES in empirical terms helps to improve our understanndin of how effectively different combinations of activities work in their respective decision-making context and governance modes.
an intelligent combinaatio of FTA models needs to be put at the disposal of decision-makers,
Nehme, C. C.,de Miranda Santos, M.,Fellows Filho, L. and Massari Coelho, G. 2012)‘ Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy
and informs decision-makers. States and markets: The future preferences of states on socioeconomic development models will impact on international science.
participants are typically senior decision-makers who are in a position to influence policy strategy outcomes and to take action to implement the emerging vision.
Science successfully met the challenge of setting up more effective processes to ensure the consensus of the very best science was communicated to multiple stakeholders in a way that helps decision-making.
such as smart appliances for automated decision making Intelligent and more automated transportation Intelligent products and services with life cycle management modules Remote collaboration solutions:
decision-making on the scope, structure and subsequent funding commitments. Such stakeholder engagement can enhance the systemic understanding of existing research activities
systemic and anticipatory vision building approach that supports the present-day decision-making (European commission 2002). In this paper we explore the possible role of foresight in transnational research programming
building/sufficient volume of high quality applications from internal capacity Influential decision-makers do not see value Sharing activities/results would dilute international leadership conflicting interests between competitors
and informs decision-making. Foresight supports a structured organisation of stakehollde involvement, orienting the efforts towards understanndin diverse interests and shared visions on future developments,
thus contributing to better decision-making in a cost-effective way. We first look at some principles for the use of foresight,
By way of engaging stakeholders in the creation and codification of tacit knowledge (Nonaka 1994), foresight synthesises key findings for decision-makers from fragmented information and expert recommendations.
and sense-making between diverse sources of information and the decision-makers..Guidance for design and process management.
which will help to better prepare policy-and decision-makers in today's complex and interdependent environments.
-and decision-makers about new and future opportunities as well as threats and have prepared them (or make them aware) for drastic changes and surprises/shocks.
and synthesising observations that hold potential for the formulation of pertinent future developments and the derivation of actionable implications on decision-making.
Horizon scanning typically builds on concepts such as weak or early warning signals within the framework of political discourse and decision-making.
2010) Discourse and decision-making Political discourse refers to the continuous communicative debate that takes place in the political arena.
and how the issue relates to present-day decision-making and action). Rather than being antagonistic, the two approaches should be seen as complementary (see Fig. 1). Exploratory scanning mainly refers to the first scanning phase (identification of weak signals)
and to interpret them in a functional way for decision-makers by gathering and processsin all relevant information.
horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues.
and synthesizing observattion that hold potential for the elaboration of pertinent future developments and the derivation of actionable implicaation for decision-making.
and are linked to existing decision-making structures (Georghiou and Csaaingena Harper 2011). This is because the mere listing of issues appears
For example, while the institutionalization of scanning activities serves to establish close links with decision-makers and makes it possible to build up capabilities on continuous basis,
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