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The interview results indicate that success is defined ultimately as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy,
or guide policy decisions. Thus, program impact via policy appears to be the most important macro-objective for foresight.
This makes sense not just because of the alignment of interrest but also because, in the present era of public funding accountability, remaining viable in the long term seems to be a critical indicator of success. In terms of critical success factors it was interestiin to note that all the studies showed that foresight delivery
Establish a clear link between foresight and todaay'policy agenda. C Jonathan Calof (corresponding author) and Jack E Smith are at the Telfer School of management, Desmarais Building, Universiit of Ottawa, 55 Laurier Avenue East, Ottawa K1n
Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decisiionmaking, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. At the time of writing, Jack E Smith was Senior Advisor Federal Foresiigh and Innovation strategy, Defence R&d Canada.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.
He has had over 25 years of experience of federal government policy technology and innovation program development.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
and members of the European community have used to guide their foresight design Quality of products Produce future-oriented materials for the system to use Development of reference materials for policy-makers and other innovation actors More informed science,
technology and innovation priorities Creating a language and body of practice for thinking about the future A source of inspiration for policy system actors More comprehensive,
and experiences Highlighting the need for systemic approaches to both policy making and innovation Stimulation of others to conduct their own foresight exercise after being inspired Accumulation of relevant experience in how to think about the future
most foresight projects are designed explicitly to appeal to policy-makers'needs for more certainty, or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
better informed about risks Using foresight to evaluate and future-proof strategies and priority actions Better evidence-based policies Making the case for increased investments in R&d Note:*
*See the website of the EFMN<http://www. foresight-network. eu, >last accessed 3 february 2010 Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
and Public policy February 2010 34 been a serious attempt to understand its effects in aggregate.
and/or providing new orientation to examine established policies Societal aspects Social mapping: i e. where the structure and intensity of conflicts are made apparent Mediation:
and ways to intensify the extent of public input and debate Policy and implementation aspects Policy analysis:
i e. policy objectives fully explored and existing policies evaluated Restructuring policy: i e. more comprehensive policy content, more evaluation of policy through debate and higher perception of democratic legitimacy Decisions taken:
i e. policy alternatives filtered, innovations implemented and legislation adopted Table 3. Success factors influencing the political role of participatory technology assessment Societal Institutional Process properties Good timing
and public controversy Alignment with policy-making agenda schedule Political relevance of topic Political culture open to informal participation Political connections
and linkages Credibility and reputation of the sponsoring and performing institutions Precise definition of political goals Perceived fairness of the process Orientation of the product
and practical implementation Involvement of political actors in the process Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 35 asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,
Can you point to any major policy, economic or scientific impacts that you believe can be attributte to a national foresight program?
and Denmark National Technology Board and Spain Regional foresight (also identified as countries that had used foresight in more specific applicatiion related to national policy development.
What is the relationship of foresight to governmeen policy and economic decision-making structures? What is the foresight funding model?
synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
novel policy initiative (s), greater public foresight awareness, increased networkking new programs, direct impact on the innovaatio infrastructure etc.
or guide policy decisions. So we concluded that achieving program impact via policy appears to be the most important macroobjeectiv for foresight:
this makes sense not just because of the alignment of interests but also becaaus remaining viable in the long term,
survival is difficult without a visible and positive impact on policy. This suggesste two dominant criteria for success:
and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
In the nine-country sample, policy recommenddation were the most common type of output from national
In Ireland, Forfas1 sees itself as the national policy advisory board for enterprise, trade, science, technollog and innovation.
Clear link between foresight and today's policy agenda: Using the most advanced foresight methodds matched to the specific task,
what they were doiin (foresight exercises) and actual policy. Direct links to senior policy-makers: To have a better understanding of policy needs,
to obtain much needed budgetary resources etc.,the foresiigh capacity and stakeholder organizations need Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 38 to be linked with
and provide regular briefings to senior policy-makers. This also helps in getting recommendations implemented. Many reported that this was either a normal practice
or an ongoiin challenge and that indicated progress was made beiin. Public private partnerships: Most program expeert extolled the good relationships they had developed with industry leaders,
advanced technollog firms or private sector advisors connected in some way to the national policy agenda and/or senior decision-makers.
The actual form of the linkage varied from collaborative to cooperative to consultative, but the clear message was that a successful foresight program had to connect in some meaningful manner to private sector actors.
i e. there was a recognized need to use new and more forward looking approaches to help in policy setting.
and so many experts indicated that this presented constant hurdles to creating the leveel of appreciation and support necessary to assuur strong policy impacts.
but participants consistenntl stated that one needs a local sounding board that can be aligned with the policy needs/capacities, through providing training, intelligence and policy ideas relevant to future challenges;(
selectivvel engage some of the most forward looking seniio policy advisors and establish itself as a recognized source of expertise with international partners.
which despite a low policy impact may have created nevertheless some appreciation for the contributions that foresight can make to general S&t preparedness.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 39 Compared to most of the other nations represennte in our study,
While the reason (s) for the failure of the program (despite the success of the outputs) continue (s) to be debated in policy circles in Canada,
Conclusion Despite the diversity in program design and goals, policy impact appears to be a consistent primary objective of programs examined.
structures and processses The key requirement seems to be creating the close linkages with policy-makers that in turn appear to be mainly dependent upon their sensitivity to futuur challenges,
their orientation to the importance of considering diverse futures and the urgency and complexity of problems facing the national policy community.
or if the results of the foresight assessment were integrrate into policy making in real time. If this Table 6:
Further the funding for projects came from a diversity of government departments with no clear dominant client emerging Link to current policy agenda:
limited direct evidence Since 2004, with two successive minority governments, the policy agenda has been clearly dominated by short-term priorities (sometimes only five years) thus rendering foresight,
and not welcomed by those responsible for policy development. Despite this disconnect, some relatively successful projects related to health system innovation,
bio-economy and enabling technologies convergence were completed that could have influenced the policy agenda had there been a policy receptor most of these having been displaced by a highly centralized politically managed priorities exercise
which tended to question the need for or exclude new information Links to senior policy-makers: some, but inadequate to defend the program Linkages have been mixed,
with those domains where senior policy-advisors and policy-makers appreciate the need for longer term perspectives,
which align with some of the areas where policy will be required,(e g. health technology, agricultural innovation,
and train over 300 senior government staff and managers in foresight methods so that at least a portion of the policy advisory system has had some exposure/familiarity to these methods Communications strategy:
discernible impact on government policy has been low and the program as initially formulated did not survive Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
and Public policy February 2010 40 is done not, then the exercise is of minimal or no value.
Finally, this study has identified policy impact as what should be the key measure of foresight progrra success. Unfortunately,
The role of PTA in the policy making process, EUROPTA Final Report. Copenhagen: Danish Board of Technology.
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010041-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 41 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
IOSECURITY INVOLVES THE POLICIES and measures taken to protect from biological harm. It encompasses the prevention and mitigation from diseases in humans and animals,
Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 42 new diseases such as SARS and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) with variants such as H5n1;
He took part in developiin the roadmap for Thailand's first biotechnology policy framework. He is currently the executive director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight and the director of Policy Research and Management at the National science Technology and Innovation policy Office, Bangkok,
Thailaand His work includes foresight research, training, and consulting internationally. His recent research interests incluude converging technologies to combat emerging infectiiou diseases and climate change.
From 2006 2009 he was a policy researcher at the APEC Center for Technollog Foresight, Bangkok, Thailand.
his interest diversified into industrial policy and S&t policy. He was the first director of Chula Unisearch, a business-oriented commerciallizatio unit of Chulalongkorn University and the direccto of the S&t development Program at Thailand Development Research institute.
and acting director of the Science, Technology and Innovation policy Research Division and retired as the vice-president for policy.
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 43 The concept has been extended in the European union's Seventh Framework Program to the possibiliitie at the interface of micro nano systems and the living world.
Phucharoenchanachai (2005) Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 44 In Phase II, the objective was to determine directiion for future R&d
key technical and policy challenges that could Aim to exchange experts'views about the severity of infectious diseases
emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 45 possibly hinder the progress of technology developmment
Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.
The model Was developed in Roadmapping I Developed in Roadmapping II Figure 3. Structure of technology roadmaps Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 46 proposed at the workshop
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 47 find more technology applications. The additional technology applications identified were:
Policy implications With strong user inputs in scientific and managemeen issues, the foresight project appears to have high potential to inspire
2008) with policy recommendatiio was presented at the 34th APEC Industrial Sciennc and Technology Working group Meeting held in March 2009 in Mexico.
in order to optimize the research budget and set policy directiion in an effective manner. A discussion which developed mainly in the diagnoosi roadmap suggested that a new network Preventive measures (PM) Surveillance
to combating EIDS Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 48 Table 3. Roadmap for development of EID diagnostics 2007 2012 2013 2017
multi-agent diagnostic devices linked to automated data collection and analysis Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 49 APEC diagnosis center,
In Thailand, Ram Rangsin, a Thai medical expert, has been conducting a project on developing policy recommenddation of the EID surveillance system for the Thai government.
and information was provided to this surveillance project especiaall with respect to the technological trends and policy recommendations of technologies in ubiquittou computing, modeling,
and has provided policy recommendations to the Thai government (Rangsin, 2009). Conclusion Bibliometric analysis and scenarios have been used to study the factors involved in initiation and spread of EID within the framework of the EID life cycle model.
the availability of realistic models can assist policy-makers in developing options for coping with outbreaks but they cannot be used in real time
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development.
The translation of research outputs into policy is of critical importance. Politicians have to make decission on the basis of available information,
and hence the prompt and efficiien transfer of information from the research enviroonmen into the policy environment is a critical component of effectively combating EID.
Policy Recommendation Paper of Surveillance system for Emerging Infectious diseases in Thailand. Bangkok: National Center for Genetic engineering and Biotechnology.
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Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making, held 16 17 october 2008 at Seville, Spain. User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 52 Indeed,
although‘the consumer'has always been important, the rationale of involving the user has changed drastically.
) In this context we can also refer to policy action that suppoort user-driven innovation, such as the rise of living labs, which are user-driven innovation environmments and the launch of the European Network of Living Labs (ENOLL) in 2006.
Although many other policy initiatives are embedded in this new innovaatio context, it remains difficult to create a meaningful synergy between users and technology in the field of ICT development.
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 53 of the diffusion theory has to do with its proinnovvatio bias and the assumed linearity of the innovaatio and adoption process.
and at a more latent level that are quite difficult to grasp User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 54 narrow and technology-centric scope of many projects.
social sciences) and reinforces the role of policy-makers in the establishment of innovative experimentation and co-creation platforms.
i-City's User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 55 large-scale living lab was the main research location.
evaluation Figure 1. Schematic overview of the three research phases User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 56 activities and finds it difficult to identify with the life
and Public policy February 2010 57 the use of mobile applications to support their existiin products and services.
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 58 disregarded, this choice illustrates that decisions are made sometimes at the expense of the user-centred rationale.
54/5 Tourist information (Tourist cluster) 3. 87/5 Mobile help for studies (and Work study cluster) 3, 43/5 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February
Q2, Q5 and Q6 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 60 Conclusion In this paper, we have focused on the shift from traditiiona technology push to more user-oriented and user
At the policy level, considerable effort has already been put into the creation of a new innovation system.
Paper presented at European Communicatiion Policy Research Conference (Eurocpr), held 31 march 1 april 2008, Seville, Spain.
User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 61 Latour B 1993. We Have Never Been Modern.
The social shaping of Technology research Policy, 25 (6), 865 899. Warnke, P and G Heimeriks 2008.
Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010063-16 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 63 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages
HE IMPACT OF THE INNOVATION promottio policy of the‘Commission of Technollog and Innovation'(CTI),
and a public partner, is fundamental to The swiss technoloog policy and, as a main promotional policy, to our knowledge, is unique in Europe.
Our main hypothesis was that: on average enterpriise that were supported by the CTI would show a significantly higher innovation performance,
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 64 avoids the functional form restrictions implicit in running a regression of some type.
public fiscal policies to support innovation Most OECD countries use large amounts of public funds to support activities that are intended to enhaanc innovation in the business sector.
A further way of supporting private investment in innovation is through tax incentives for R&d expenditures (see Jaumotte and Pain, 2005 for a survey of the main fiscal policies to support innovation.
The underlyyin justification for public policies to support innovaatio is provided by the economic argument that otherwise the private sector would invest less in innovaativ activities than is socially desirable.
Thus, public fiscal policies to support innovation are designed to alleviate particcula forms of market failure that would lead to under-investment.
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 65 consensus not only among political actors but also among organizations representing business interests.
To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy. 2 Methods of evaluation of measures of technology policy Evaluating the outcomes of subsidized projects is difficult,
i e. estimations of the impact of policy, proceed by means of an ex post assessment of the activities of the firms that have received subsidies.
To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 66 either matching approaches (as in this paper) or selecctio
and is the only study that compares the impact of two different policy instrumments Six out of ten studies use R&d intensity,
Most studies Table 1. Summary of selected empirical studies Study/country Policy instrument being evaluated Number of firms Approach Impact on target variable Sakakibara (1997),
+-positive (negative) and statistically significant effect at 10%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 67 find a positive policy effect but in some cases
which was in accordance with the general promotion policy of the CTI, based mainly on the‘bottom-up'principle of support.
%Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 68 significantly lower than the respective share of projeect of these scientific fields.
%Both the distribution among industries and among firm size classes seem to be in accordance with the policy pursued by the CTI of promoting mainly small-and medium-sized enterprises in all sections of the economy;
CTI database, authors'calculations Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 69 firms which are subsidized not out
G g a-=0 N a Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 70 (6) where and is the kernel7 at the point In a fifth step,
5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 71 innovation performance than non-subsidized firms (at the 5%test level.
For the effectiivenes of CTI promotion policy is the result for the six output-oriented innovation indicators of particular interest.
A further interesting point, particularly for policy-makers, is subsidized that firms seem to be significantly more innovative especially in terms of new products than non-subsidized ones.
particularly for policy-makers, that subsidized firms seem to be significantly more innovative, especially in terms of new products,
5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 72‘low-subsidy'firms from that of the respective groups of non-subsidized firms.
the effectiveness of CTI promotion policy; and the relationship between subsidy quotient and poliic effectiveness.
The results of the study show a positive picture of the CTI's promotion policy.
whose promotion is an explicit goal of CTI policy, the technological orientaatio of subsidized projects is quite broad,
An additional positive element is that policy is not just effective but it becomes more effectiiv
Even if a policy measure is successful from a microecconomi point of view, it still remains an open question whether or not this policy measure is also relevant in macroeconomic terms.
In the case of the CTI policy investigated in this paper, it is questionabbl if an amount of about CHF60 million in 2004 (meanwhile CHF100 150 million of additional R&d support per annum) could have a discernible impact on an economy that invested about CHF19 billion in R&d in 2004.
A further open question is of course, if some kind of‘functional equivalent'of this policy at a broader base, e g.
R&d tax incentiive would do better, but such a discussion would be beyond the scope of this empirical paper.
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 73 Appendix Table A1.
Italian (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 74appendix (continued) Table A3.
*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 75 Appendix (continued) Table A5.
*See footnotes to Table A3 for key (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 76 Appendix (continued) Table A7.
and Public policy February 2010 77 Notes 1. See Bozeman (2000); Georghiou and Roessner (2000; and Feller (2007) for recent reviews of the central issues related to the evaluation of the effectiveness of technology programmes.
See also Science and Public policy (34 (10), 679 752) dedicaate to‘New frontiers in evaluation'.'Finally, see OECD (2006a) for an analysis more from the point of view of the policy-maker;
Polt et al. 2001) for the role of framework conditions for the evaluation of industry university collaboratioons and Polt and Streicher (2005) for the evaluation of large programmes such as the Framework programmes of the Europeea Union. 2. For overviews of Swiss
Lepori (2006) gives a longteer analysis of public research policy primarily with respect to universities and public research organizations.
and Public policy February 2010 78 3. The questionnaire may be obtained from the authors. It is available in German,
where individuals are treated'via a concrete policy measure. It is used here analogously for firms subsidized by the CTI. 5. See Heckman et al.
Socioeconomic Evaluation of Public RTD Policies (EPUB), W Polt, J. Rojo, A Tübke, G Fahrenkrog and K Zinöcker (eds.
Technology transfer and public policy: a review of research and theory. Research policy, 29 (4/5), 627 655.
Matched-pair analysis based on business survey data to evaluate the policy of supporting the adoption of advannce manufacturing technologies by Swiss firms, KOF Working Paper No. 65, July 2002.
Science and Public policy, 34 (10), 681 690. Garcia-Quevado, G 2004. Do public subsidies complement businees R&d?
Science and Public policy, 35 (4), 277 288. Hall, B and J Van Reenen 2000. How effective are fiscal incentiive for R&d?
Oxford Review of Econoomi Policy, 18 (1), 22 34. Jaumotte, F and N Pain 2005.
An overview of public policies to support innovation, OECD Economics department Working papers No. 456. Paris: OECD. Klette, T J, J Moen,
Science and Public policy, 28 (4), 247 258. Polt, W and G Streicher 2005. Trying to capture additionality in Framework programme 5:
Science and Public policy, 32 (5), 367 373. Rosenbaum, B R and D B Rubin 1983.
In Policy Evaluation in Innovation and Technology Towards Best Practices, pp 225 253. OECD: Paris. Silverman, R 1986.
A new approach for STI policy? Mark Boden1,,*Ron Johnston2 and Fabiana Scapolo3 1mark Boden, European commission Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain 2professor Ron Johnston, Australian Centre for Innovation
, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia 3fabiana Scapolo, European commission Joint research Centre, Science Advice to Policy Unit, Brussels, Belgium*Corresponding author.
adapt and respond pro-actively to change. 1 A closing summary of the FTA Conference outcomes in relation to policy needs by Georghiou (2011) highlighted the extent to which the global scale, complexity,
so that is what we will Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 135 139 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs026 The Author 2012.
One particular feature of the 2011 FTA Conference was the organisation of two invitation-only sessions devoted to good practice in foresight for policy.
the selection of a limited number of policy-relevant posters, based on the experience both of individual countries and international organisatioons the invitation to policy-makers and experts to provide an informed audience for the poster presentations;
and what are the key policy messages. The criteria identified as being important for foresight specialists to achieve effective policy engagement were deep knowledge in the relevant field, a‘roadmap'style of thinking
which served to translate possible futures into a schema that is both comprehensible and actionable, a high level of imagination and openness to new ideas,
These included the continuing adaptation of FTA to the changing economic and policy environment. This is instanced by the recent reframing of FTA from contributing to evidence-based policy towards a greater emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives.
Another significant shift is from primarily expert-based approaches to continuous highly participative‘crowdbassed processes.
As a consequence, there is a growing need for the capacity to anticipate change to be embedded centrally in policy-and decision-making,
Valovirta and Loikkanen describe the developmmen of a new policy instrument, innovation policy roadmapping, and its role in assisting in aligning technologgica and societal perspectives with the more visionary framework necessary to address grand challenges.
applications, products, markets and drivers with empirical analysis of the policy instruments that are utilised currently. The outcomes of the process can be strategies to implement a novel policy instrument
or a strategy for a region to engage in an active market creation in the context of some promising emerging technology.
and pro-active policy action which can assist policy-and decision-makers in today's complex and interdependent environments.
A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation of meeting the needs of policy-makers to identify areas to intervene in by formulating appropriate policy.
and Vilkkumaa discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning in order to shape systemic policies to address major challennges Due to the increasing complexity of modern societies,
This is particularly true in policy contexts where the issues are not yet prominent on the policy agenda
But mere listing of such signals does not necessarily support the formulation of policy issues or, more broadly, the develoopmen of coherent policy themes
which can be tackled through policies that span areas of administrative responsibility. In general, horizon scanning activities for the shaping of systemic policies involve three key questions:
how to facilitaat the recognition of signals and the elaboration of correspoondin policy issues; how to synthesise such signals
and issues into meaningful collections; and how to facilitaat collective sense-making in their analysis
which is relevant to policy recommendations? They draw on the foresight exercise‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
and the interpretation of the resultiin clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures.
The experience of FTA practitioners in implementing foresight tools provides further evidence of the effectivenees of particular tools in meeting particular challenges in the most appropriate ways.
The challenge for STI policy therefore, would appear to be:.acknowledgement of the deep inadequacies of vertically structured systems and processes,
Georghiou, L. 2011)‘ Connecting conference outcomes with policy needs, options and implications'paper presented during final plenary session at the Fourth International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain
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