Design/methodology/approach A literature review carried out in context of the EU funded transport project OPTIC (see www. optic. toi. no) reveals that differentiating between different types of uncertainty is possible.
There is a discussion about the potentials of discursive tools in the literature related to participative Technology assessment (pta;
since many policy interventions (and the actors responsible for them) are confronted regularly with unforeseen adverse some authors even call them perverse effects. 2. The issue of uncertainties
Generally speaking, the scholarly literature shows consistently that all decision making takes place under conditions of uncertainty
A literature review carried out in context of the EU funded transport project OPTIC (see DLR and KIT,
Additional refinements were proposed by other authors. Kleindorfer (2008, p. 7) distinguishes between‘‘epistemic risks, ''which arise from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate model
The authors differentiate between four levels; two of them are subcategories of so-called‘‘deep uncertainties.''''The latter ones are similar to the third category that Sven Ove Hansson (1996) has added to the discussion of uncertainty.‘‘
or in the public consultations that are conducted by the European commission to get reactions on strategic documents.
Scenarios are defined by many authors as a coherent illustration of possible future situations together with pathways that might lead to these situations (Kosow and Gaßner 2008.
The documentation includes‘‘reflexive''elements, pointing at the potentials but also at the limits of the tools and methods used for the assessment.
However, a broad range of literature exists, dealing with problem-oriented transdisciplinary research (see for Hessels and van Lente, 2008 for a critical review) in greater depth.
The Dynamics of Science and Research in Contemporary Societies, Sage Publications, London. Gordon, T. J.,Glenn, J. C. and Jakil, A. 2005),‘Frontiers of future research:
a literature review and a research agenda'',Research policy, Vol. 37, pp. 740-60. Justen, A.,Schippl, J.,Ho lt, A. and Fleischer, T. 2010),‘Expect the unexpected:
About the authors Jens Schippl is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
Jens Schippl is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: jens. schippl@kit. edu Torsten Fleischer is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.
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''Several authors have developed concise descriptions of complex systems incorporating most of the concepts considered above. It is worth
A Guide for Policymaking in an Uncertain World, Sage Publications, Ottowa. Waldrop, M. 1992), Complexity, The Emerging science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, Simon & Schuster, New york, NY.
Corresponding author Averil Horton can be contacted at: averil@alpha2omega. co. uk VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 303 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
reprints@emeraldinsight. com Or visit our web site for further details: www. emeraldinsight. com/reprints Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.
experiences of using this methodology in the policy context are quite rare in the scientific literature.
Conclusions The backcasting process depicted in this article produced four different scenarios for climatically sustainable emission level
It is interesting to note that the results produced in the FFRC's process were altered slightly as they were presented in the final publication by the Prime minister's Office.
this would mean that in the future wellbeing is defined in a different fashion from today) was presented in scenario B. In the final publication of the results of the scenario process this notion was replaced with stable growth.
Publication of the report launched a wide public discussion on low emissions communities and low-carbon society,
Mitigation of Climate change, WGIII Contribution to the IPCC AR4, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge and New york, NY, chapter 13, Box 13.7, p. 776, available at:
Towards a Low-carbon Finland, Prime minister's Office Publication 30/2009, available at: www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2009/j28-ilmasto-selonteko-j29-klimat-framtidsredogoerelse-j30-climate /pdf/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
Assessment of the Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy'',Prime minister's Office, Helsinki, Prime minister's Office Publications 3/2011, available at:
About the authors Sirkka Heinonen holds a Doctor's degree in Philosophy from Helsinki University. She is Professor of Futures research at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku.
Sirkka Heinonen is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: sirkka. heinonen@utu. fi Ville Lauttama ki holds a Master's degree in Economics
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10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.003 T Corresponding author. Tel.:++31 30 2537462. E-mail addresses: r. vanmerkerk@geo. uu. nl (R. O. van Merkerk) 8 h. vanlente@geo. uu. nl (H. van Lente.
and we employ it in our case study. We will show that it is possible to trace emerging irreversibilities for a specific application of nanotubes (Section 3). We will conclude by placing our contribution in a historical perspective of technology assessment
tracing emerging irreversibilities The basic claim is that a contribution to the understanding of the emergence of technological paths can be expected by understanding the role of emerging irreversibilities in technological development.
Fig. 1 shows the growing attention in journals for a certain topic and indicates that the term dnanotubest was used increasingly in the titles of scientific articles (extracted from the Picarta database.
The new outlet for publication on a new topic, and the early definition of a new audience indicate a next step in an emerging structure.
2000 2001 2002 Fig. 1. Number of times dnanotubet is mentioned in article titles (Picarta. 3 The fact that we use the emergence of this specialised journal for this paper is the fact that nanotubes is one of the major topics in this journal.
bresearch contributions on nanoparticles, clusters, nanotubes, nanocrystals, nanolayers, and macromolecules surrounded either by gases, liquids or solids, are brought together in this single publication.
Q 4 Earlier one of the authors has analysed this ongoing dynamic as the dpromise-requirement-cyclet 5. Alternatively,
one could focus on emerging networks of actors and artefacts: the preferred entrance point of actor network theory 6, 11.
Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements Reports that translate technological developments into market potentials Articles addressing the market potentials of technological developments Press releases of individual firms Articles that address the developments
and potentials of applications Articles in scientific journals Review articles that give an overview of the developments in the field Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements
Since the publication of Rueckes et al. 16, where they introduce the architecture of nonvolatile memory based on nanotubes,
Nanotechnology should give the answers here. 3. 1. 3. Research group The expectations of using nanotubes for nonvolatile memories started with the Nature publication of Charles Lieber's group 16.
In this article they presented a proof of concept of the suspended SWNT crossbar and the architecture of the possible application.
The authors address some problems in order to actually make the nonvolatile memories. Also, they state that:
This can be shown by a statement of Ball 27 in an article where he discusses these results:
Q He refers here to the original article 16, however these expectations are expressed 2 years later, after the new scientific results,
During these few years Nantero received a rather extensive media attention (37 articles in total) from technology as well as business journals.
Acknowledgements The authors of this paper would like to thank Arie Rip, Ruud Smits, Ulrich Fiedeler and Nik Brown for their valuable comments.
The Nanotechnology Opportunity Report. 2nd edition (June 2003. 25 M. R. Diehl, S n. Yaliraki, R. A. Beckman, M. Barahona, J. R. Heath, Self-assembled, deterministic carbon nanotube wiring
networks, Angewandte Chemie International Edition 41 (2)( 2002) 353 356.26 Y. Huang, X. Duan, Q. Wei, C. M. Lieber, Directed
and urban planning Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell and Leticia Redondo Abstract Purpose This article aims to show the opportunity
''According to several authors (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2006; Gavigan and Scapolo, 2001), territorial foresight can be defined as a systematic, participatory,
Likewise, several articles by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies have drawn attention to the potential of territorial foresight for decision making at the regional level (IPTS
Despite the well-deserved interest and merit of the previous references, specialized literature still shows a substantial divorce between the scope and content of foresight exercises and the specific needs of urban planning.
In fact, our literature review has detected not specific innovative research efforts geared to bridging the gap between these two fields of knowledge. 4. How to reconcile territorial foresight and urban planning Despite its apparent benefits,
new contributions are needed to reinforce qualitative instruments with quality, detailed outputs (visions or scenarios) that can be used as inputs for quantitative tools.
About the authors Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is an Architect and Urban Planner, Deputy Director of the Urban and Regional planning Department,
He is the author of several articles and books related to strategic planning and foresight tools. Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is the corresponding author
and can be contacted at: josemiguel. fernandez@upm. es Leticia Redondo is an Architect and Urban Planner at the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid.
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the article argues for equipping legal activities with a set of tools, methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge
the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,
The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to law may bring about.
The views expressed in this article are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. to find the factual evidence to justify its policy recommendations.
In conceptual terms, the dialogue and the literature produced under the FTA common umbrella term have contributed greatly to the distinction and articulation of the many different methods,
These authors claim that an examination of this kind should draw on the relevant disciplines of social sciences and humanities (SSH), such as epistemology, political science, sociology, economics,
but it also made possible the very first publication of a legal nature that addresses the future of law in such a broad
and the think piece contributions, LOTF aimed to cover an extensive range of legal dimensions
Law in the tripartite structure followed in this article: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement is only now adopting some of these FTA TOOLS.
and as explained in the last section of the article, there are important problems and challenges regarding the application of fta to Law that must be taken into account.
moreover, have given way to the publication of a series of various journal editions, such as the special editions of Technological forecasting and Social Change vol. 75 (4);
Technological Analysis and Strategic management vol. 20 (3; Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72 (9; as well as to the publication of the book Cagnin et al.
2008). ) 5. Although not referring specifically to Law, but to the broader term of regulatory policies, it is important to mention the paper of Knut Blind:
PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
being freely accessible as an e-publication. See Muller et al. 2011). ) 10. For a comprehensive guide as to how scenarios can be developed
According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society, overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,
and research policy cases within the European commission (EC), identified‘‘a potential gap between the contributions of researchers
''As a consequence, the author noted that‘‘research outcomes do not fully reach the policy makers
www. lawofthefuture. org/ul/cms/fck-uploaded/documents/LOTFLSTO2030COMPLETE041011DEF1. pdf Hughes, B b.,Moyer, J. D. and Rothman,
About the author Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade is a Scientific Officer at the Information society Unit of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
norberto. andrade@ec. europa. euvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 351 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.005*Corresponding author. Tel.:++49 7247 824571; fax:++49 7247 824806. E-mail address:
The authors of the above definition consider this interval das a good approximationt, but not as a dplausible measure to define Nanotechnologyt
To our knowledge, the term dscience roadmapt has been proposed first by Robert Galvin in a 1998 article in Science 9. Kostoff and Schaller without any explicit justification dreinteggrated both types.
political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
A. Grunwald (Ed.),Technikgestaltung fu r eine nachhaltige Entwicklung Von der Konzeption zur Umsetzung, Edition Sigma, Berlin, 2002.3 H. Paschen, C
Global zukunftsfa hige Entwicklung Perspektiven fu r Deutschland, Bd. 5), Edition Sigma, Berlin, 2003.6 R. N. Kostoff, R. R. Schaller
Einfu hrung, Edition Sigma, Berlin, 2002.11 S. Walsh, Roadmapping a disruptive technology: a case study: the emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry, Technol.
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To cite this article: Karel Haegeman, K. Matthias Weber & Totti Könnölä (2012) Preparing for grand challenges:
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this last edition was responding timely to the growing demand for forward-looking intelligence in times of crisis and uncertainty,
First, three contributions explore new avenues of how FTA could be conceived in the future by discussing and elaborating theoretical groundings,
Four further contributions analyse concrete cases of advanced FTA practices in areas that are characterised by high degrees of complexity and uncertainty.
These contributions point to possible future directions to be followed by FTA in order to better cope with Grand challenges. The arguments in the keynote of Ollila are in line with a tendency of the private side to claim that they are prepared better for the future than the public side.
Tuomi kicks off a set of contributions that look more conceptually at how FTA can contribute to identifying
and the authors conclude that FTA's practical outcomes are underpinned by subjective opinion in many dimensions.
who looks at the literature on the sociology of expectations and what it can offer for foresight.
Vecchiato kicks off a set of four contributions on concrete cases of how FTA is used in addressing compleexit and uncertainty.
The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.
and unpredictability Such notions lead several authors to remind us on the role of FTA to challenge persisting premises on extrapolated futures based on past events.
, Carrera de San Jerónimo, 15-2, 28014 Madrid, Spain The views expressed are purely those of the authors
Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011
Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO
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To cite this article: Ilkka Tuomi (2012) Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 735-751, DOI:
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The paper aims at a conceptual contribution that builds on several disciplines, ranging from innovation and technology studies to a Bergsonian analysis of creative evolution,
of uncertainties proposed in the literature, Walker et al. 2003) distinguished two sources of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty, according to these authors, is uncertainty due to the imperfection of our knowledge,
which can be reduced by more research. Variability uncertainty, in turn, is due to inherent variability of empirical quantities,
As many authors (Haldane 1931; Whitehead 1978; Maturana andvarela 1980; Lewontin 1983; Varela, Thompson, and Rosch 1991;
For a critical historical review of key contributions, see Mirowski (2009. 2. Ontological uncertainty has been defined in several different ways by different authors.
For example, Lane and Max-field (2004) distinguished between truth uncertainty, semantic uncertainty, and ontological uncertainty.
and other articles in the same special issue of foresight on anticipatory systems. Notes on contributor Ilkka Tuomi is Chief Scientist at Meaning Processing Ltd.
Creative evolution (first edition 1907. Lanham, MD: University Press of America. Bergson, H. 1988. Matter and memory (first edition 1896.
Newyork: Zone Books. Bijker, W. E t. P. Hughes, and T. J. Pinch. 1987. The social construction of technological systems:
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To cite this article: Denis Loveridge & Ozcan Saritas (2012) Ignorance and uncertainty: influences on future-oriented technology analysis, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 753-767, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715477 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715477 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
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can lesser*Corresponding author. Email: denis. loveridge@mbs. ac. uk ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080
What contribution ought FTA to have made to planning and building of the Fukushima plant? Did that happen?
these are the subject of an extensive literature. As an aside, these agreed metaphors are construed often as theory
The literature relating to the methods used in FTA will not be reviewed but the next section necessarily sets out briefly their relation to the purpose of the paper, namely the influence of ignorance and uncertainty on FTA. 5. Quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA In a sense,
and to get past their dichotomy by placing knowledge in a broader context of its contribution to social evolution Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 760 D. Loveridge
but its sponsors (16 major companies and a UK Government department) agreed to publication of the methods used.
but comes from press articles and books of unrestrained opinion that rely heavily on‘gut'reaction.
Throughout publications about or adjacent to the nano-artefact, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science quartet (NBIC), there is a continual introduction of ideas,
Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Joanne Roberts of Northumbria University for helpful discussions during the preparations of this paper.
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To cite this article: Harro van Lente (2012) Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations:
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thus, to study the insights from this literature, and consider what they mean for the process of foresight.
but their contribution will draw from a more general repertoire (Nahuis and Van Lente 2008).
what this body of literature has to offer for foresight. This article investigated the lessons of the sociology of expectations for the various practices of foresight.
A review of foresight highlights the diversity in methods, objectives and settings(‘arenas'.'The review of the sociology of expectations discussed how expectations legitimise,
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To cite this article: Riccardo Vecchiato (2012) Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 783-796, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715487 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715487 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
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strategic management Introduction The strategic management literature (Hofer and Schendel 1978; Miles and Snow 1978; Teece 2007) and the organisation theory literature (Dill 1958;
Thompson 1967) have emphasised long the role of the environment as a major source of uncertainty for strategic decision-makers in charge of coping with emerging opportunities and threats.
and to provide empirical evidence of its contribution to sustain the advantage of the firm over time.
because the role of anticipatory actions is a key issue in literature on strategic management (Ansoff 1991;
and Siemens. 5 Given the inadequate analysis in the literature and the open-ended nature of our questions, we felt that this methodological approach would be the most useful for theory building (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007;
and articles and prior studies in the business press and scientific journals. Second, company archives such as internal memos
which previous scholars have suggested as the main contribution of foresight to strategic decision-making (van der Hejden et al. 2002;
Future research efforts can build on literature on innovation and managerial cognition (Tripsas and Gavetti 2000) for investigating how to identify discontinuous drivers
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To cite this article: Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
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*Corresponding author. Email: cristianocagnin@gmail. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 http
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 804 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 2. Contributions of FTA.
FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
The Maturity Model is an attempt to build FTA's contributions to a structure heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
Publications Office of the European union. http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed July 2012.
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