10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.09.007*Corresponding author. Tel.:++1 505 844 7556; fax:++1 505 844 5670.
and mapping between fields from different data sources Calls (RFP) New proposals Continuation proposals Project reports Publications U s. DOE LDRD data ID number ID
Year Year Year Year Year Year PIA PI PI Author Source Text Text Text Text Abstract Text a PI=principal investigator.
and descriptive text for each record to generate a document document similarity matrix.!A graph layout program, Vxord 4, was used to calculate the document graph.!
The resulting graph or map was explored using Vxinsight 5, a visualization tool that enables interactive navigation and query of an abstract information space.
Technology and organization terms were linked together on a document basis and visualized in a network or link analysis map.
and abstracts from peerreviiewe publications resulting from funded projects from FY20013 through FY2004 (see Table 1). Given that we are in the midst of FY2004,
Traditional LSA uses the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique to deconstruct a term document matrix {X} into the product of three other matrices
To calculate the document document similarity matrix, matrices {W} and {S} are multiplied. The resulting vectors are normalized then to unit length,
These inner products are the document document similarity values. Our LSA methodology differs slightly from that above in that we use semidiscrete decomposition 6, 7 rather than SVD to do the term matrix deconstruction.
K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1125 document matrix.
and words that were tied closely to only one type of document (e g.,project, proposal, report, etc.).
The ordination places similar documents close to each other on the graph. 3. 4. Visualization using Vxinsight After calculating coordinates,
such as a large document set. It uses a landscape metaphor and portrays the structure of the space as peaks and ridges of documents.
The size of a peak and its relative position in the layout provide valuable clues to the role of that group of documents in the overall structure.
Labels on dominant peaks are based on the two most common words in the titles (or other fields) that comprise that peak,
Relationships among the individual data records may be displayed as arrows between documents and understood at many levels of detail.
The calculated positions of the documents have been dithered slightly for this view to allow more data points to be viewed.
The CIS-related documents are shown by two different symbols: those directly funded by CIS (filled squares),
one based on current global literature rather than just the work of one U s. government agency, would show a much broader opportunity space.
Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the LDRD Program, Sandia National Laboratories, U s. DOE under contract no.
This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:05 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
To cite this article: Toni Ahlqvist, Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto, Jouko Myllyoja & Nina Wessberg (2012) Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture
10.1080/09537325.2012.715490 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715490 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
However, Taylor & francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness,
Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling,
Itäinen Pitkäkatu 4, 20521 Turku, Finland This article suggests that, in the current interlinked innovation meta-system,
In this article, we explore the questions of systemic transformations and the building of an anticipaator culture in the context of VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
and on a‘culture of swiftness',on the constantly forming potentialities of the*Corresponding author.
Hence, our article starts with a question of howto foster these kinds of strategic capabilities in an organisation.
In the article, we focus especially on research and technology organisations (RTOS. As argued by Arnold, Clark,
The article proceeds through five sections. Section 2 briefly outlines strategic development paths in an RTO
In the relevant literature the innovation activity, and indeed the entire activity field of organisations, has been conceptualised as relational practices, that is,
In this article, we open a view towards the systemic capacities, based on a perspective of an organisation as a complex system that is mobile in space time.
Concluding remarks The article discussed the construction of the systemic transformation capacities in an RTO. It proposed that two kinds of systemic capacities are of importance:(
and knowledge spaces 839 The article created insights for managing systemic entities, such as organisations or companies, in systemic environments.
As discussed in the article process-based roadmapping is one potential avenue for the construuctio of such mobile strategies.
and other organisations would benefit from thinking explicitly in all of the four knowledge spaces discussed in the article.
The lessons of the article could be ennobled by putting them in a dialogue with other foresight methodds such as scenario and weak signal analysis.
'Note 1. In this article, it is not possible to provide a review of the origins and different dimensions of roadmapping.
VTT Publications, Edita Prima Oy. Ahlqvist, T.,H. Carlsen, J. Iversen, and E. Kristiansen. 2007b.
Publication of Nordic Innovation Centre. Ahlqvist, T.,V. Valovirta, and T. Loikkanen. 2012. Innovation policy roadmapping as a systemic instrument for forwardloookin policy design.
University of Cambridge. http://www. ifm. eng. cam. ac. uk/ctm/publications/tplan/trm white paper. pdf (accessed August 18, 2009.
This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:05 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
To cite this article: Ying Guo, Tingting Ma, Alan L. Porter & Lu Huang (2012) Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 843-861, DOI:
10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
However, Taylor & francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness,
Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling,
*Corresponding author. Email: huanglu628@163. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 http
Here, we go further to apply text mining tools (see www. thevantagepoint. com) to such compilations of research article and patent abstracts.
By‘innovation',we mean a novel technical contribution effectively translated into a successful product or process (i e. commercialisation.
It draws upon the literature and available human knowledge of the particular innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 846 Y. Guo et al. system, within the context of a more general innovation context (i e. the socioeconomic context in
We added exclusion terms for the publication databases. We tested the performance of the search modules.
4104 documents (including 3134 articles) appearing in the Science Citation Index (SCI) of WOS (fundamental research emphasis;
2 3730 documents from EI Compendex (journal and conference articles; 3097 patent families from DWPI;
and 2771 documents from Factiva (treating a range of press releases, trade publication items, etc. 4. Results We emphasise the relatively novel steps in our 10-step FIP process (Figure 1) for the DSSC case:
Tech Mining the various publication and patent abstract records can track the emergence of key terms over time to spotlight new (appearing only in the most recent time period) and hot subtechnoologie (i e. those appearing
Extracting the organisational entities particularly those publishing R&d articles, those patenting, and those discussed in the business-oriented literature identifies possibly important actors in the DSSC arena.
Mapping research networks identifies collaborations. To provide a sense of this, we focus selectively as such analyses are fairly well known (Porter, Kongthon, and Lu 2002).
We begin by showing trends based on the annual activity from each database in Figure 3. It is clear that the research publications drawn from the SCI
Figure 3. DSSC publication and patent trends. not sure why this is so; we observe that the Japanese government did cancel solar energy subsidies in 2006.
for a set of publications indexed by WOS (in this case, by SCI, which is part of WOS),
The Subject Categories are grouped into‘macro-disciplines'based on the degree of co-citation of the Subject Categories in a large sample of articles indexed bywos (Porter and Raflos 2009.
The DSSC research concentrations appear as nodes in the map, with larger nodes reflecting greater numbers of publications.
Figure 4 locates the DSSC publications based on the journals in which they appear overlaid on a base map of science. 3 This illustrates that global DSSC research involves an extensive range of research fields concentrated in the Materials Science and Chemistry macro-disciplines.
4. 3. Profile innovation actors and activities (Step D) Since 2009, WOS has been providing a funding acknowledgement field as it indexes publications.
The US National science Foundation (NSF) shows forth on 42 of 1691 publications since 2009. The swiss NSF accounts for 35 of some 41 papers with Swiss funding;
and also examined how heavily cited their publications are. Especially notable leaders are Swiss Federal Institute oftechnology,
and three others have 1330 to 1717 cites (to their many publications. Table 1 partitions publication and citation shares of these 11 top institutions for (1) the period extending through 2008 and (2) that since then (2009 2011, with 2011 incomplete.
The swiss Federal Institute of technology is certainly the dominant single institution researching DSSCS. 4 Especially in recent years,
SCI tallies since 2009 have found China to be dominant with 440 papers including at least one Chinese author.
when we compared topical concentrations in the SCI DSSC publications between 2005 2007 and 2010 2011,
publications in environmental journals increased dramatically from 2 to 29, suggesting small, but growing, attention to such facets.
visit www. interdisciplinaryscience. net or www. idr. gatech. edu/.4. DSSCS were reported first there in a hugely cited 1991 article (O'Regan and Gratzel 1991);
He is the author of some 220 articles and books, including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005).
He and the co-authors are preparing a Second Edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley.
Improving the literature review. Scientometrics 53, no. 3: 351 70. Porter, A l, . and I. Rafols. 2009.
Literature review, expert panel, and scenario are three major methods that are used commonly around the world,
B scenario is used often with literature review, expert panel, and trend extrapolation/megatrends; B the Delphi method is used often with literature review, expert panel,
and brainstorming; and B workshop is used with literature review, expert panel, and scenario. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 7 Scenario requires extensive knowledge of the field under investigation,
and information from other sources is expected to be interpreted (Mietzner and Reger, 2005). The Delphi method is regarded as one of the useful information sources for scenario (Loveridge, 1999.
and therefore it contains events that are expected to make an implicit contribution or to become a common base
in addition to events that have the potential for explicit contributions. It provides key areas of science and technology for addressing the challenges,
On the other hand, scenario gives sufficient discussion on scientific and technological events that make a direct contribution to the challenges,
Scores are assigned to all the keywords by the term frequency-inverted document frequency (TF-IDF) method shown below that is generally used in text mining;
The scenarios that contain many highly scored topics can be considered to offer a greater scope for contributions from science and technology.
For such themes with less matching, an out-of-the-box discussion is needed on the contributions that science
where science and technology are expected to make great contribution because a lot of Delphi topics are related closely.
this indicates that these areas will play a role as a general-purpose technology or as a source of cutting-edge technology providing ground-level support to the concrete contributions of other technologies.
Corresponding author Yoshiko Yokoo can be contacted at: yokoo@nistep. go. jp PAGE 18 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
reprints@emeraldinsight. com Or visit our web site for further details: www. emeraldinsight. com/reprints Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.
Design/methodology/approach The authors compare strategic dialogues with existing dialogue instruments and investigate the relevance of their theoretical foundations to transferring foresight results into research policy making.
They also discuss the contributions foresight can make to the management system at different stages of development (cf.
B a careful selection and engagement of stakeholders considering their potential contribution, their role in developing research policy,
Corresponding author Frauke Lohr can be contacted at: frauke. lohr@grolman. com PAGE 28 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
reprints@emeraldinsight. com Or visit our web site for further details: www. emeraldinsight. com/reprints Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.
It connects the results of the project with the literature on foresight innovation and grand challenges.
However, with the increasing acceptance of grand challenges, Foresight is expected to make a contribution to orienting innovation towards broader issues (Georghiou et al.
) The provenance and scope of the grand challenges are discussed in the article, below; they are understood broadly in terms of DOI 10.1108/14636681311310123 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 29-39, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
The author would like to acknowledge the grant awarded by Forfa's, Ireland that supported the research reported in the paper. themes such as energy, resources, health and security.
) This article will use‘‘grand challenges''as the main term for these developments. This article presents some recent experience of how national research and innovation systems use futures to construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and opportunities.
It relates the case of foresight or future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) used for research and innovation policy agenda-setting, conducted in Ireland.
The article takes the structure that follows. The second section sets the scene, and briefly traces the provenance and meaning of grand challenges.
A further milestone in the explicit recognition of directing research and innovation resources towards grand challenges came with the publication of a report on the European Technology platforms by DG Research (European commission DG Research, 2010.
supported by data and literature. The fiches draw out potential disruptive factors that will constrain or accelerate the phenomenon described.
and social science and their contribution to Ireland's society and economy Be more‘‘creative''by moving towards a stronger creative economy that combines arts/humanities
this article introduces a country level case study using a foresight approach to look at the implications of global drivers and trends for Ireland,
menu/standard/file/lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf 2. The author was a member of the team that was appointed to carry out the work on behalf of Forfa's. The team was made of CM International (lead contractor) and the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation
The points made in relation to the exercise in the article are my own, and do not represent the views of Forfa's. 3. See www. forfas. ie/newsevents/news/title, 6828,
About the author Martin Rhisiart is Director of the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation at the University of Glamorgan.
mrhisiar@glam. ac. uk VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 39 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
B Direct impact (high) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at government level for the development of national strategic documents.
different documents (like project materials, reports and documents on their basis) were analysed and interviews were conducted with heads of project teams. 3. Russian FS approaches 3. 1 National S&t Foresight:
2025 (FS1) The aim of this foresight study was the identification of the most important and well-developed S&tareas in Russia in the long-term perspective.
B contribution to increasing the GDP growth rate; B improvement of the structure and increasing competitiveness of the Russian economy;
and B contribution to Russia's national security, including environmental security. The final conclusions made in the course of the study were used to develop
including R&d level, contribution to innovative relevant projects, availability of human resources (researchers, engineers and technicians), required level of funding and fixed assets.
‘‘increasing share at global market'',contribution to social development'',competitiveness at domestic markets'',integration to global value chain''.
Also, suggestions on amendments to strategic documents of RF Ministries were proposed. As an example, below are presented priorities for innovation-based development of the‘‘industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage''sphere:
However, the real contribution of the Delphi study results to the development of policy documents was mostly indirect
and we could not assess the real contribution of these materials. So according to our scale (see section 2) the influence of FS1 on policy-making was indirect.
contribution to innovative relevant projects, availability of human resources (researchers, engineers and technicians), required level of funding, fixed assets and others Estimation of resources and risks List
Also, suggestions for amendments to strategic documents of RF Ministries were proposed Update of the list of innovation priorities PAGE 50 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 create an adequate management system for the sector.
In the framework of this study proposals to amend the relevant RF Ministry of Natural resources strategic documents (for example, Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation
the real contribution of the Delphi study results to policy documents was mostly indirect because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at the development of S&t.
proposals to amend relevant strategic documents of the RF Ministry of Natural resources (e g. Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation, federal law‘‘About Environmental Protection,
and some strategic documents (Geologic Strategy, Water Strategy) were prepared on the basis of the output of the study.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.
Corresponding author Anna Sokolova can be contacted at: avsokolova@hse. ru VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 53 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
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Research limitations/implications It would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports.
The authors would like to acknowledge support from the National science Council of Taiwan and the efforts of Kang Hsieh in STPI who gave valuable advice on the amendment of this research.
the authors would like to express their gratitude to the reviewers, who contributed significantly to improving the quality of this paper. certain paths of development (Gavigan and Cahill, 1997;
) Previous publications have proved that the technique is established an method for foresight activities and that Delphi outperforms other group formats such as statistical groups or standard interacting groups in terms of effectiveness (Rowe and Wright, 1999).
the eighth edition International Patent Classification (IPC) published by World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), which is recognized worldwide.
Patent documents have long been regarded as a useful source for technology management because they include technical and application/commercial information.
Also, patent documents are used widely as a source for technology forecasting, CTI and for analysis of technology convergence (Kayal, 1999;
Based on the IPC code given to each patent document, statistics regarding the code or advanced analysis can be done easily to compare development or the trajectory among different technology domains.
The main difference between patent documents and Delphi topics lies in the fact that a patent describes in longer text an invention that has been proved of concept and for
While some scientific literature databases have been reclassified by using IPC code, this PAGE 70 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 kind of capability gap identification becomes easier.
and scientific literature and has been mapping its indexing schemes to the WIPO IPC scheme in order to assign IPC codes to relevant records since January 2010 (Vivavip, 2010).
a survey'',Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28 No. 4, pp. 1661-707. Grupp, H. and Linstone, H. A. 1999),‘National technology foresight activities around the globe:
revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future'',Publications Office of the European union, European commission, Luxembourg, available at:
PAGE 72 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 About the authors Hai-Chen Lin is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
Hai-Chen Lin is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: hclin@stpi. narl. org. tw Dr Te-Yi Chan received BS, MS and Phd degrees in Computer Engineering from Chung Yuan Christian University
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 73 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 Corresponding author at: Center for Strategic Studies andmanagement (CGEE), SCNQD 2, Bl.
The papers discussed below have been selected initially by the scientific committee of the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis to be considered for publication with several other papers.
The authors claim that the first step for devising a technology strategy is to decide if the technology is worth investing in by better understanding how such technology might develop in the future.
As the authors also acknowledge, there is a major limitation of this method to assess a given technology.
Acknowledgements The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
based on patent documents, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 398 407 (this issue. 8 H. Ritteland, M. Weber, Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sci. 4 (1973) 155 169.9 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, EUR 24364 EN, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.
r a c t Article history: Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 9 july 2012 Accepted 3 september 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 The FTA COMMUNITY relies on a set of disciplines and methods,
since the first edition of the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), there is still little dialogue
and this paper summarises and furthers the discussion developed during the 2011 edition, building on the debates at the conference and between members of the conference Scientific Committee, to which the authors of this paper belong.
In particular this paper describes the methodological state of the field through a tripartite taxonomy of increasing levels of qualitative and quantitative integration.
) since its first edition in 2004. For the 2011 edition, the Scientific Committee decided to focus specifically on the combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies.
This article, drawing on a position paper written for the conference, reports and expands on the lessons learnt during the event.
In order to define the scope of our paper it is important to first clarify what we mean by quantitative,
& Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 The views expressed are purely those of the authors
Corresponding author. Tel.:++34 95 44 88 392; fax:++34 95 44 88 326. E-mail addresses:
and is illustrated well by the existence of dedicated publication outlets such as the Journal of Mixed Methods.
which the authors of this paper belong. As such the paper aims to be a stimulus to further dialogue rather than providing an empirical stocktaking or a systematic and comprehensive review of literature.
In addition although the reflections in this paper originate from inside the FTA COMMUNITY, they are addressed to a broader audience, based on the awareness that other branches of social sciences,
Literature has paid however little systematic attention to evaluating the actual impact of foresight 16,17. In the call for papers,
In addition, several authors indicate that foresight reproduces or projects current knowledge and assumptions 19,20 and does not tell us much about the future.
Unsurprisingly, several authors plea for a stronger emphasis on creativity and exploration in future-oriented technology analysis, in order to identify truly alternative future developments
and on the possible combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches 22 25 the literature provides little evidence on systematic comparison
Since its first edition the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis devoted part of its attention to the development of new tools and methods, novel use of existing methods and (new) disciplines applied by FTA.
trend extrapolation), highlighting that they were combined with literature review, scenarios and expert panels. These conclusions have to be interpreted with care,
or in combination with, traditional qualitative methods based on literature reviews. Identification of trends and wildcards: Quantitative methods can also be used to identify outliers (outstanding observations) which could be revised further by experts as potential wild cards.
, documents, numerical data, free text, videos. 6 The Risk assessment and Horizon scanning Initiative (Singapore) developed a Service Oriented Based Horizon scanning Architecture (SOSA) allowing sharing perspectives on data sets
though the authors refer to Wikipedia and Google as similar examples. A related approach is proposed by Soojung-Kim Pang 41 who suggests that tools
the authors believe that such deep integration of methods can potentially enhance both the analytical depth and the policy impact of fta activities.
and sustainability 43 (See http://www. sitra. fi/en/articles/2012/strategic-design-finlandsneewapproach-problem-solving).
and addressing different types of innovation. 9 A good example is the contribution that FTA can provide to policy and decision makers in charge of the prioritisation of alternative technological options.
and other types of grey literature in order to advance knowledge in this area. Future research could take up this endeavour.
The different and highly heterogeneous contributions to the 2011 International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis in this area share a common bottom line:
Acknowledgements The authors thank the anonymous reviewers and Ben Gardiner for commenting on this paper,
Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative approaches in the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sage Publications, 2009.6 M. Wood,
http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/FTA%202011%20%205-9%20%20hl%20%20
I. Sakata, K. Matsushima, Detecting emerging research fronts in regeneration medicine by the citation network analysis of scientific publications, Technol.
(Coordinating lead authors), Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios, in: S. R. Carpenter, P. L. Pingali, E. M. Bennett and M. B. Zurek (Eds), Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
Publications, 1998.62 A. Bryman, Barriers to integrating quantitative and qualitative research, J. Mixed Methods Res. 1 (1)( 2007) 8 22.63 J. Mahoney, G. Goertz
He has been publishing articles and reports on anticipatory and analytical research in support of European RTDI policy and on new methods and tools for FTA.
He authored over 120 publications in Russia and internationally devoted to Foresight and S&t and innovation policies;
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