Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents Lidan Gao a b,, Alan L. Porter c, Jing Wang d, Shu Fang a, Xian Zhang a, Tingting Ma e, Wenping Wang e, Lu Huang e
Beijing 100081, PR China a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 Corresponding author at: Chengdu Library of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, PR China.
Watts and Porter 14 have introduced nine indicators that look at publications of different types during the technology life cycle.
which DII obtained the patent documents. Currently, most of TLC related literatures are based on application year 15,17 20.
But the priority year presents the first time an invention has been disclosed. So in this paper, we choose the other two indicators to measure the development of technology:
Author Indicator Robert J Watts, Alan L Porter 14 Number of items in databases such as Science Citation Index number of items in databases such as Engineering
science literature 22,23 and other patents 24. Backward citations to science literature indicate a linkage between science and the patented technology.
Backward citations to other patents may indicate a linkage between other technologies and the patented technology.
The number of these two kinds of references can be found on the front page of the patent documents.
We count the number of literature citations and the number of patent citations in DII by priority year. 2. 1. 5. IPC (four-digit) The International Patent Classification (IPC) system,
6 Literature citation Number of backward citations to literatures in DII by priority year 7 Patent citation Number of backward citations to patents in DII by priority year
From the literature, we find that the Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) has been developed for more than 100 years
Table 3 shows the TLC stages of CRT and TFT-LCD as given by the experts and literature. 2. 3. Search query The search terms for each technology are defined simply
This study is based on patent documents; it adopts 13 indicators that can be quantified to measure the TLC stages of an object technology.
The findings and observations contained in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National science Foundation.
Technol. 43 (1)( 2008) 157 162.4 J. P. Martino, Technological forecasting for Decision making, 3rd Edition Mcgraw-hill, New york, NY, 1993.5 A t. Roper, S w
J. Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Edition John Wiley, New york, NY, 2011.6 A l. Porter, M. Rader, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study
, Study on indicator system for core patent documents evaluation, in: Proceedings of ISSI 2009-The 12th International Conference of the International Society for Scientometrics and Informetrics, Rio de janeiro, Brazil, 2009, pp. 154 164.17 C. Zhang, D. H
Patents citing scientific literature, Res. Policy 29 (2000) 409 434.23 D. Hicks, A. Breitzman, K. Hamilton, F. Narin, Research excellence and patented innovation, Sci.
She is the author of more than 10 articles. Alan Porter is a Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering,
GA. He is the author of some 220 articles and books, including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005) and Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley, 2011.
He is the author of more than 20 articles. Shu Fang is a Professor and the Director of Chengdu Library of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
She is the author of one academic book and over 30 articles. Tingting Ma is a Ph d. candidate of School of management & Economics at Beijing Institute of technology.
The fourth part with conclusions closes the article, making six fundamental theoretical considerations that were accounted not yet for in formal models
But these authors have not considered in detail the new capabilities and have not identified the possible sources of troubles
The sense one gets from the published literature on this theme is that the to date effort has been in great part centered on the striking similarities between biological evolution
as we find in the literature on the theme. There are some further and subtle aspects to consider that, in my point of view
are still not well taken in account in the variety of discussions found in the literature.
in comparison with the relatively vast literature found in verbal theories of techno-cultural evolution,
Most authors agree that it is impossible to define dinnovationt in a context-free manner,
which disagreement abounds in the published literature. In despite of the fact that nearly everyone agrees that to explain technological advances we must look beyond the artifacts themselves
In a very recent book edited by John Ziman 15 (Technological innovation as an Evolutionary Process) we have different authors theorizing about these questions,
when we compare these contributions with texts published in the 1980s, as for instance the very often cited books of Nelson and Winter 16 and Basalla 17.
but as demonstrated in a recent article published by Geoffrey Hodgson 20 in the Journal of Evolutionary economics,
some promising approaches As already mentioned there is a relatively vast literature in verbal theories of technological and cultural evolution,
it is impossible to make justice to all efforts of all groups found in the literature,
and most often used are (mentioning only some important publications for each approach): NK technology landscapes, initially proposed by Stuart Kauffman 26 and further pursued by other researchers of the Santa fe Institute, like Jose'Lobo 27 and Walter Fontana 28;
As a follow-up of this event we could think on the edition of a proceedings volume containing a collection of the most important contributions
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1150 recent proposal of this author with George Modelski for a seminar on Globalization as Evolutionary Process 40 to be held in the spring of 2005 in Paris,
The netherlands a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
Characteristic for these techniques is that they aim at charting the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Corresponding author.
PRIM has been used in combination with EMA by other authors 40 42. Those applications, however, aimed at translating the troublesome regions back to qualitative scenarios that could then be presented to a decision maker.
their contribution to the total amount of energy generation is still relatively small. Transition of the energy systemtoward sustainability depends on the developments related to new technologies.
Classical Readings and Recent Contributions, The MIT Press, 2004.23 D. Swanson, S. Barg, S. Tyler, H. Venema, S. Tomar, S. Bhadwal, S
t Article history: Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 12 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 29 october 2012 Exploratory Modeling
Similarly, if the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 Corresponding author. Tel.:++31 15 27 88487.
In other literature, this is called deep uncertainty 7, 8, or severe uncertainty 9. It can be understood as a situation where one can incompletely enumerate multiple possibilities without being able
More specifically, the authors ask whether EMA can be used to facilitate the development of robust strategies even in the presence of many Table 6 The major uncertainties and their ranges.
a b s t r a c t Article history: Received 4 july 2011 Received in revised form 24 june 2012 Accepted 23 august 2012 Available online 11 november 2012 In recent years, accelerated by the economic and financial crisis,
and using scenarios and orienting innovation systems and research priorities 6. Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 Corresponding author.
feedback of individual contributions of information and knowledge; an assessment of the group judgment or view;
In addition, the interplay of the different contributions to achieve the targets becomes more visible. The foreseen outcome of long-term investments or policies, for example, can be visualized
or contributions to the enablers for orientating innovation systems through future scenarios (i e. pros and cons). Our analysis of the case studies listed in Appendix 1 suggests that a variety of modes of futures thinking,
and in literature, see for instance 71,81. To strengthen the enablers for innovation within the scenario process, the link between practice and theory,
Acknowledgments The authors are grateful to the COST Action A22 network, IPTS and different past and present foresight network initiatives such as the European foresight Platform and Forlearn for organizing creative discussion platforms on foresight and scenario initiatives.
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, EUR 24364 EN, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.
i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Received 24 july 2011 Received in revised form 7 july 2012 Accepted 3 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 This paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
A decade ago, the question addressed how to maximize the contribution of such technologies to economic innovation with the intention of enhancing competitiveness 1, 2. Today,
and output indicators such as publications and patent applications 7, 8. More than ten years have passed since the U s. National science and Technology Council published its first vision for nanotechnology research
What are the contributions of the distinct future-oriented approaches to the development of nanotechnology governance?
and stated their planned contributions of their programs to the nanotechnology initiative. Over 150 participants and contributors from government, science,
most scientists do not give credit to Drexler's contribution to nanotechnology and instead focus on Feynman as the genius behind the origins of the field 11 (C. Selin, Expectations and the emergence of nanotechnology, science, technology & human values,(2007) 196 220).
From1988 to 1998, the technology field wasmonitored by analyzing the literature, visiting conferences and other relevant actors internationally, organizing expert panels on different aspects of nanotechnology,
However, the next strategic document, the Action Plan Nanotechnology 2015 refers to only some initiatives of other ministries and agencies (mainly with regard to regulation,
Innovationsschub aus dem Nanokosmos, VDI Technologiezentrum, Düsseldorf, 1998, p. 220.7 J. Youtie, P. Shapira, A. Porter, Nanotechnology publications and citations by leading countries
i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Corresponding author. E-mail address: Elna. Schirrmeister@isi. fraunhofer. de (E. Schirrmeister.
Instead, a thorough review of academic literature on new innovation patterns was carried out 16. A total of 63 weak signals were identified,
This framework was developed by the project consortium based on the review of academic literature on innovation patterns
In the INFU project thiswas done by a literature reviewand screening forweak signals by the project team as described above.
In a classical scenario building process participants'contributions are channelled through the scenario building framework. This can be more or less rigorous depending on the approach.
Making his contribution at the yearly I-day of Innovation Fig. 10. Element from INFU mini panel vision Deliberative Innovation A day in a life of a Citizen in the Deliberative Innovation Scheme.
In our view the effort put into realising contributions of external actors beyond mereworkshop participationwas fully justified by the diversity of the outcomes.
The value of the contributions of actors from different perspectives was exploited much better than in conventional workshops where participants'contributions are documented by the foresight team.
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:
and subsequently tracked through a series of special editions of multiple journals arising from the FTA conference series in Seville, for example, Scapolo 2;
and technology are making the greatest possible contribution to economic prosperity, public health, environmental quality, and national security.
Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the stimulating ideas of the FTA participants, including the authors of the papers in this special edition but going well beyond and into the discussions, formal and informal,
which each session yielded. Thanks are also due to the conference committee who acted as rapporteurs
Responsibility for the interpretation and reflections made here is solely that of the authors who apologise in advance for any misinterpretation
Towards this end the authors advocate FTA designs that are tailored better to the context. Both papers unpack the widely accepted notion that‘‘context matters''by exploring more deeply
Again the authors take a more empirical or applied approach, by focusing on a particular case study, the‘‘Intelligent Manufacturing Systems 2020''project.
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.011 authors make the case for taking all four of these areas into account
On the one hand the authors explore the use of FTA in the context innovation networks and innovation management.
At the same time the authors present an approach to adapt FTA practice to the changing nature of innovation and thereby to the requirements of a specific application.
and finalize this Special issue reflects the difficulty of this kind of ex-post process and the far-flung and changing circumstances of its authors and editors.
Indeed, a retrospective examination of a range of documents and recollections from all of the conferences underscores a consistent
Almost all the articles in the Special issue take on this challenge the rationale for matching particular tools to particular tasks.
On the positive side the articles in this Special issue show a vibrant community of practice that has been actively innovating
Marinelli@ec. europa. eu*Corresponding author. Tel.:++34 667448936 Riel Miller UNESCO, Bureau of Strategic planning, 7 Place Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP, France E-mail address:
, Denmark 1. Introduction This paper originates from two issues that are being discussed in the current academic literature on foresight and in the international foresight community.
focusing on different characterisations and typologies of foresight projects 2 3. The literature has suggested that foresight must be an integral part of policy-making processes 4,
Among the contributions to this discussion, the key conclusion is that there is no one-size-fits-all'approach to foresight.
and academics who are studying foresight processes need to simplify Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Inspired by sociologists'contributions on national culture, the paper demonstrates that two dimensions of national culture,
*Corresponding author. Tel.:++45 4525 4535. E-mail addresses: pean@dtu. dk, per. dannemand@gmail. com (P. D. Andersen.
The literature has suggested several simplified contexts for foresight. Some of the literature has suggested that a decisive context for national foresight exercises relates to the size of the country.
The seminal book Foresight in Science by Irvine and Martin analysed processes in France, West germany, the United states and Japan
the case of Luxembourg'9. Other literature suggests that geographical regions are a useful form of contextual categorisation.
but apparently, the authors still find the clustering of such regions useful. We recognise, of course, that for some authors,
the selection of geographical regions might be used, primarily, for simple structuring of a text or a book and not as a deliberate analytical approach.
this paper draws on the literature for both terms. The structure of the paper is as follows.
such as Expert Panels, Interviews, Modelling and Literature reviews. The uncertainty avoidance dimension has several implications for national management and planning cultures.
Based on Hofstede 19 The authors of this paper are responsible for the selection of countries and for the indicative groupings.
evidence refers to reliable documentation, such as statistics and indicators or forecasting of economic development through macroeconomic modelling.
and the technology foresight programme was moved to 1 Authors'translation. P. D. Andersen L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 11 the new Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.
Most of the academic foresight literature is of a descriptive and normative type and reflects the practice of foresight in different contexts.
The authors are thankful to Doris Schartinger from the Austrian Institute of technology for comments on the early version of the paper and to the anonymous reviewers who,
structured and applied in different ways by using various foresight methods (see, among other things, 1). In this article,
In addition, scenario analysis is the systematic analysis of a variety of uncertainties combined into distinctive stories about the future (see 2). In this article
We are interested in finding out (1) how scenario analysis as a Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
*Corresponding author at: International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands.
'which are used often in literature, do indeed apply. The aim is to increase insight into topics such as the level of acquaintance and experience with scenario analysis methods in strategic policy-making,
policy implementation and policy evaluation (see 8). Indeed, according to literature, scenario analysis methods can be used in the different phases of the policy cycle 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 11.
We used an independent evaluation that was conducted in 2010 by the University of Twente 21, based on interviews with 21 politicians and civil servants and a document analysis. Furthermore,
one of the co-authors of this article interviewed the coordinator of the Trendbureau. In the case about The hague, a scenario analysis was carried out by 16 civil servants of the Department of Urban Development,
At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers. The document analysis focused on documents regarding the scenarios and related strategic policy documents.
The insights from this analysis were juxtaposed with the insights from the interviews. Because we were aware of the potential bias of in depth interviews (for example
we especially on the consistencies between the document analyses and the in depth interviews. In the interviews, we used open questions, to gain a broader understanding of the issues mentioned in the research questions.
The first study conducted by the authors examined how Dutch departments use foresight to develop policy and strategy 23(‘policy foresight'.
The second study conducted by the authors at the national level 24 was aimed at discerning how Dutch departments use foresight to develop their own organisation(‘organizational foresight'.
One of the authors of this article was involved actively in two of the four local case studies.
and was one of the authors of the scenarios. One of the authors conducted both national level inquiries that were used as data sources for this article.
However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.
The initial results of the scan are presented in this article and will be elaborated in the coming years.
In the strategic policy documents, we discovered that this connection between scenarios and strategies is also (in part) lacking.
the authors feel that foresight studies are used not optimally (see 32). An important challenge has to do with connecting the outcomes of futures research to decision-making processes.
less attention has been paid to the theory and Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
In this paper, the authors develop four principles for the design and management of global foresight exercises building on the experience of designing
*Corresponding author. Tel.:++55 6133661516. E-mail addresses: cristianocagnin@gmail. com (C. Cagnin), totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com (T. Ko nno la.
This article aims to begin filling the gap by analysing the authors'experience with an international foresight project.
On the basis of this case study the authors outline what they consider to be the necessary preconditions
Section 2 examines the available literature on international foresight management and conceptualises design and managerial issues particularly relevant in the international context.
Section 4 outlines the lessons learned from the authors'experiences in designing and managing the IMS 2020 project.
The authors develop four principles that they believe should be taken into account when designing and managing an international foresight undertaking.
These principles build on the international foresight literature and our experiences with a global foresight exercise that is described in Section 3. The four principles are:
Moreover, the authors'claim that a collective vision should be shaped by building upon individual views actions and interactions with larger institutional structures. 2. 2. Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Diversity among global participants and their differing constituencies set a coordination challenge that calls for responsiveness towards all
the authors argue, to enable a systematic analysis of how different (weak signals refer to one another or what they mean to different stakeholders. 2 This is important
and to combine different methods for engaging numerous participants in diverse roles and with different contributions.
(i) scientific literature and of (ii) the main areas covered by twenty worldwide existing roadmaps and thirteen ongoing research projects.
and updating files and documents, email, virtual room for videoconference and joint work, among others.
Fig. 3. IMS2020 scenarios. 7 Microsoft Sharepoint Workspace is a desktop application designed for document collaboration in teams with members who are regularly off-line
and (iii) peer review articles and an edited book. 4. Revisiting the principles for global foresight The IMS2020 scenario
The modular foresight design described in Fig. 2 (Section 3) allowed engagement of numerous participants in different roles and with different kinds of contributions.
when designing and managing an international foresight exercise. 4. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems In the IMS2020 project the understanding of the global system of sub-systems was attained by mapping scientific literature,
State-of-the-art and expectations Analysis of co-patents and co-publications Use common foresight framework User of partner contacts and established networks for outreach (survey, interviews,
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
and work on common documents. Creativity was fostered in both open or collective and close or expertdriive stages of the project.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 37 Acknowledgements The views expressed are those of the author
time for the EU to meet global challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.2 L. Y. Tang, Q. Shen, Factors affecting effectiveness and efficiency of analysing stakeholders
The IMS Summer School Manufacturing Strategy First Edition 2010: Sustainable Manufacturing, 2010.34 D. Klimkeit, Organizational context and collaboration on international projects:
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Corresponding author.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.03.001 The six articles included in this Special issue were presented in 2006. The overarching theme was the impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making,
methods and approaches Four of the six contributions address a specific theme of the Seminar on the evolution over the years of FTA assumptions, methods and approaches.
The contribution provides a process outline and examples of Adaptive foresight, including a critical assessment of its potentials
as contribution towards the establishment of common research policy (i e. the so-called European research area (ERA). 3 This contribution refers to a very specific project
and sector (i e. the European forest sector) that aimed to create an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-termchallenges of this sector and the identification of gaps and opportunities in wood material science and engineering.
The view of the author is that Regulatory foresight is an instrument for regulatory bodies to identify, in advance, future challenges for their regulatory regimes,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 The contribution describes methodologies and approaches developed for the purpose.
by Amanatidou and Guy, was a contribution to the above described theme. The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
'The paper presents a conceptual framework outlining the major characteristics of emerging knowledge societies, based on a review of the available literature.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.
The last article in this Special issue entitled‘Devising Futures for Universities in a Multilevel Structure: a methodological experiment'by Havas, is a contribution to the Higher education theme.
The paper starts with the assumption that global drivers and challenges are prodding European universities to undergo a series of reforms to position themselves as relevant players in the knowledge society.
He is author of some 200 articles and books, including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005). He focuses on text mining for technology intelligence, forecasting and assessment.
(and even hyped) in the literature is a Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
*Corresponding author at: Department of Telematics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, O. S. Bragstads Plass 2a, 7491 Trondheim, Norway.
which have become clearer more recently 3. In the literature, the relevance of inclusive approaches and interaction between various stakeholders is emphasised strongly.
The benefits of such user involvement and interaction are discussed widely in the literature. For instance, active and continuous user involvement have been said to lead to‘unique and valuable ideas for future development'15, to more‘socially and environmentally friendly technologies',to an increased‘quality of innovations'16
the actual contribution of users often remains limited. In this paper we argue that this limitation is to an important extent due to the insufficient or even lacking introduction of the future and future anticipation as components into the user-driven knowledge creation process.
This relates to another constraint that is often mentioned in literature, i e.,, that users are not aware of the features
probable futures and to make a relevant and meaningful contribution. The point that we want to raise in this paper,
In the strict sense, crowdsourcing implies an open call for ideas and contributions. In this study however, a large crowd of users within a delineated subpopulation of Flemish DTV-users was addressed.
3. 2. 1. 1. Phase 1. In the first phase, literature and trend reports concerning current TV watching patterns,
a review of the literature on current television viewing practices and time spending patterns confirmed the observation that TV is still predominantly a lean back medium.
and in the literature in this respect relate to e g.,, the problems with traditional remote controls which are adapted not to new forms of use;
the actual role and contribution of users is limited often and constrained as the introduction of the future as a component is often insufficient
and have contributed to both case studies presented in this article and to the reviewers, for their very helpful feedback and suggestions.
Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary material related to this article can be found, in the online version, at http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.009.
a literature review, ejov Special issue on Living Labs 10 (2008. K. De Moor et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 49
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