Centre of Finland, Tekniikantie 2, P o box 1000,02044 VTT, Finland*Corresponding author. Email: toni. ahlqvist@vtt. fi The systemic characteristics of science, technology and innovation policies have been discussed much recently.
10.1093/scipol/scs016 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
foresight and forward-looking policy design The concept of a system has different emphases in different branches of the innovation literature.
First, the innovation system literature highlights those organizations that particiipat in the emergence, diffusion and embedding innovatiions such as universities, public and private R&d organizations, companies and various intermediate organizattions and the collective learning processes between these organizations (Smits et al. 2010).
Secondly, the literature on systemic innovations and transition managemeen emphasizes the dynamic relations of sociotechnoologica landscapes, socio-technical regimes and niche-level innovations in the context of emerging technologies (Geels and Schot 2007.
Thirdly, the literature on technological systems places the emphasis on networks of agents in a specific economic or industrial sector and the particular institutional infrastructure involved in the generaatio and diffusion of technology (Carlsson and Stankiewicz 1991.
The knowledge required for building the roadmaps was gathered in a systematic process that combined literature scanning expert interviiew and an assessment workshop.
The second step was the updating of the roadmap document. The third step was an extensive round of commenting on the document.
The roadmap was finalized then. 5. 2 Outline of the transformation and technology roadmaps This example of environmentally sustainable ICT demonstrrate an innovation policy roadmap that is constructed of a systemic transformation roadmap and a technology roadmap
Identification of these complementary elements and associated interdependencies is an important contribution that a roadmapping approach can illuminate.
, C/Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092 Seville, Spain*Corresponding author. Email: totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com. The complexity of transnational research programming and the requisite large-scale stakeholder engagement set a major managerial challenge:
10.1093/scipol/scs020 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
and piloting of the proposed approach. 3. 1 Foresight processes case by case The cases were handpicked principally because of the explicit role of foresight activities in their implementation as well as the fact that the present authors had access to the information
or upgraded, is needed to process contributions vertically from stakehollder who are accustomed to different levels of abstractiio when considering regional,
which makes it possible to involve varying amounts of contributions from a changing number of stakeholders..
In Woodwisdom-Net, scalability meant that the consultation process had to deal with varying amounts of contributions from a large number of stakeholders in different countries.
The foresight literature contains several accounts of the tensions arising from attempts to map out and execute large-scale foresight exercises according to a clear‘bluepriint (Havas 2003).
building on diverse statistical and policy support databases and the plethora of documentation from different levels of research and innovation systems.
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Wim Ooms Luke Dalton, Matthias Weber, Klaus Kubeczko and the anonymous reviewers for their contributions to improving this paper.
The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
Notes 1. See Europe 2020 (European commission 2010b) and the Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union (European commission 2010c.
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and authors'own expertise. 6. An indicator of the culture of openness may be the past and present openness
the ERA NET Scheme (ERA NET Actions and ERA NET Plus Actions), Article 185 Initiatives (old Art. 169), European Technology platforms, Joint Technology initiatives, Eureka, JP, the Open
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and the present authors'own expertise. 20.
Publications Office of the European union. European commission. 2002)‘ Thinking, debating and shaping the future: Foresight for Europe'.
2008)‘ Summary of the Impact assessment',Commission Staff Working Document. Accompanying document to the Towards Joint Programming.
In Research: Working together to tackle common challenges more effectively, 15/07/2008, SEC (2008) 2282.
and Technology policy, Javastraat 42,2585 AP The hague, The netherlands*Corresponding author. Email: amana@otenet. gr. Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action
10.1093/scipol/scs017 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
3 During the project the present authors developed an approach to organise and implement horizon scanning processes effectively
while the issue-centred approach concentrates on identifying core documents (primary signals) that describe substantial Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 209 parts of potential issues.
and other internet sources such as blog reports, literature consultation, but also Conference table 1. Summary of concepts applied in horizon scanning Concept Description Weak signals Citing from Igor Ansoff,
according to the cited author or source, should be taken into account by policymakers, society and/or research.
They are usually articles or presentations by an author or group of authors, which describe a future narrative with a foreseen great impact on future science,
Only items (articles websites and videos) with more or less full storylines that connect factual findings or plausible assumptions in a logical way with a foreseen future high impact are considered.
scientific articles, statisttica analysis, trend reports and foresight exercises. The storyline may address conflicts or common interests as well as emotional, ethical and legal aspects.
not only to search for signals in officially published documents and reports but also to exploit relevant discussions in blogs and micro-blogs (as Twitter),
and seminars. a special SESTI wiki to evoke contributions to the scanning process. active use of blogging and micro-blogging (Twitter) 8. text-mining. expert/stakeholder workshops Based on the experience of SESTI,
Written sources included scientific and nonscientific articles in e-journals and newspapers, but also in wikis, specialised websites, specialised web-blogs, policy papers and reports.
In the SESTI project an attempt was made to set up a wiki that specialised in collecting voluntary descriptions from many authors on new emerging issues for science and technology.
because most of the contributors did not want to spend time writing new full-length articles on issues that had already been described elsewhere.
Thus, people tended to send web links rather than writing contributions. This was one of the reasons why the wiki was abandoned at an early stage
contributions can only be made by experts who are active in these types of media. Within the SESTI project, a survey was run asking various experts about new emerging issues and signals that they perceived.
and articles that were already available from other sources. This makes that specific tool less appropriate for the identification phase.
and the related blog posts can be used to see how publications in high-ranking journals are commented on
Focused expert review which is assisted by experts'survey, literature review and attending conferences. The first combination can be considered to be more in line with the exploratory scanning approach,
The value of the more‘conventional'methods like expert surveys, literature review and conferennc visits is more relevant for targeted tasks requiring expert inputs like reviewing the state-of-the-art in a given field, searching for comprehensive reports on weak signals
specific for survey and conferencces large for focused expert review, literature review Duration: observation time Through reports, blogs, groups, social networks, Twitter, sites, etc.
Articles, websites, videos for focused expert review. Any other info piece for second-round scanning (observation time depends on scanner) Experts'knowledge;
literature; conferences for additional signal/issue selection and refinement of reference frame (observation time depends on participants
Selection of which documents to include is crucial especially in‘bottom-up'analysis. Focused expert review is predefined based on reference frame Predefined criteria reflected in survey questions,
For literature review and selection of conferences same reference framework Verification method Cross-referencing with other articles Discussions with experts Discussions with experts;
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
or meta descriptions Connections and clustering is made as reported in survey responses, literature and based on reviewers'expertise.
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Origins High Medium Medium As included/connected to info piece As revealed by text-mining;
as reported in literature Novelty High High High Cross-checking with scientific databases. Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises In focused expert review by tracing back on internet (e g. google timeline) As reported by survey respondents;
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Ethical, legal, societal issues Medium High High Expert discussions, futurists symposia,
Further search for related documents dealing with ELSI dimensions In text-mining, the analyst can look deeper
As reported in raw sources in focused expert review As reported in survey responses, literature and raw sources in focused expert review;
In literature review based on documents selected for review based on experts'knowledge. In conferences through discussions with peers Existing strategies and relevant stakeholders Medium Medium High As reported/criticised in raw resources.
and related ongoing policy initiatives and discourses Text-mining can show policy-related terms appearing in a document
and in literature and synthesised by reviewers. In focused expert review secondary scanning can reveal relevant information.
in previous published thematic foresight report as well as in recently published policy documents Text-mining can show the policy related terms.
In focused expert review narratiive in the primary scanning usually contain already policy implications or even policy advice of author.
or of critics As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by narratives in focused expert review.
and stakeholders and usually lead to recommendations As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by policy workshops Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 219 model-based forecasting.
Acknowledgements The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
Office for Official Publications of the European commission. Bo schen, S.,Kastenhofer, K.,Rust, I.,Soentgen, J. and Wehling, P. 2010)‘ Scientific nonknowledge and its political dynamics:
and ZHAW Zurich University of Applied sciences, Institute of Sustainable development, Postfach 805, CH-8401 Winterthur, Switzerland*Corresponding author.
10.1093/scipol/scs021 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
Acknowledgements The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
The particularly novel issues from this survey were added to the issues collected from the literature review. 4. These issues plus the 73 additional issues identified by the survey participants can be found at<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/bepa. html
Office for Official Publications of the European commission. Botterhuis, L.,van der Duin, P.,de Ruijter, P. and van Wijck, P. 2010)‘ Monitoring the future.
Office for Official Publications of the European commission. Fuerth, L. S. 2009)‘ Foresight and anticipatory governance',Foresight, 11:14 32.
Commission Staff Working Document A Rationale for Action, Accompanying the Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union COM (2010) pages 9 and 89,
*Corresponding author. Email: kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de One urgent mission for European research is to focus on the grand challenges of our time.
10.1093/scipol/scs018 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
Global challenges therefore represent different strands of issues (authors'own observation:.Some selected trends or‘megatrends'that are observed in a global context..
Different publications or internal papers can be discusssed in order to give some examples of these different views of global challenges that were starting points for the Fraunhofer considerations. 2. 1. 1 First example.
19ff) These transitions are considered also to be‘megatrends'in other publications. The term‘megatrends'was used originally by Naisbitt (1984)
To the best knowledge of the present authors, the State of the Future report is the most comprehensive
and discussed them in a workshop with experts (see Fig. 1). A total of 12 future perspectives were identified for publication
Fraunhofer future markets. 243 The authors of this paper were involved in the concept and practical application of the 2010 Fraunhofer futureorieente process.
Office for Official Publications of the EU. Cuhls, K.,Blind, K. and Grupp, H. 2002) Innovations for our Future.
'<http://www. horx. com/Reden/Macht-der-Megatrends. aspx>accessed 15 july 2011 (authors'own translation.
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