''This raises the issue of when those responsible for the foresight project should hand it over to the relevant stakeholders.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
and a special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change 5. The second Conference in 2006 enlarged the geographical base of participants,
This led to a book published by Springer 6 and special issues in Technological forecasting and Social Change 7,
This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in
Design/methodology/approach This introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 Conference contributions for this Special issue.
only a restricted number of papers could be included in this Special issue highlighting the broad diversity of FTA application fields in response to grand challenges.
Social implications The papers of this Special issue point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives
Originality/value This Special issue brings together papers that explore not only the opportunities and limitations of implementing FTA METHODS in a variety of policy domains,
To sum up, the articles in this special issue demonstrate a variety of FTA application fields and offer a glimpse onto possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA in the coming years.
since many policy interventions (and the actors responsible for them) are confronted regularly with unforeseen adverse some authors even call them perverse effects. 2. The issue of uncertainties
The less the issue is structured pre the more open is the method and the less effects are excluded from the beginning.
A typical issue, which goes through the history of transport planning, is the case that quantitative modelling is used
Two crucial issues in all TPMS have been the assumption of stability in model coefficients over time
which the question of clarifying the assumptions of modelling still is a crucial issue: the planning of an underground railway station for the City of Stuttgart,
Another issue in the context of the S21 planning is a good example for a known unknown.
B generating new solutions to issues; and B enabling alternative actions. An example of Reframing from Battram (2000:
Promoting variation in practical policy making terms can mean using several options to achieve an intended outcome as implementing a variety of policies to address the same issue increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes.
or to respond to a common issue. Identifying influencing factors and removing barriers to facilitating variation. 3. Study from past and current experiences
Miller, R. and Poli, R. 2010),‘Introduction to a Special issue on anticipatory systems and the philosophical foundations of future studies'',Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 3. Mitchell, M. 2009), Complexity:
Topics of some previous reports have included issues such as regional development and the effects of ageing of population.
the government commissioned several studies on issues concerning the effects and ways to prevent or adapt to climate change.
The team consisted of more than 140 people who represented a broad spectrum of expertise relevant to climate and energy issues.
The project team from FFRC consisted of five researchers, with experience both in methodologies applied in the exercise and in climate and energy issues.
backcasting suits especially well for solving of environmental issues, as they deal with deeply habitual behaviour and complex connections between social, political, environmental and economic factors.
value-laden issues, increase social learning and in themselves advance social change (Robinson et al. 2011, p. 757).
Jungk emphasises that ordinary citizens should be invited to participate in futures workshops to elaborate issues that affect their lives.
Hence the most important information needs concerned possible development paths in key energy consuming sectors (transport, housing and industry), the additional questions concentrated on these issues.
The decision-makers have a huge variety of issues to deal with and one cannot expect the politicians
Presumably the original result was politically too difficult an issue to consider at the time.
namely encouraging creativity and a wide variety of options and weak emerging issues. Seen from the present situation in particular after the global financial crises, the anticipated possibility of degrowth economy is not an insignificant option
thus increasing awareness of these concepts and related issues. This may be seen partly as a result of the scenario approach which provided concise narratives of long term futures with one robust national goal:
His main research interests are in environment, energy and security issues. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 315 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
In this paper we will address the issue how useful assessments can be made, given the enormous,
An integral part of the Nanoned programme (3%of the budget) is the assessment of social, political, economical and environmental/health issues.
First, the Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering in the UK have incorporated these issues into their study (commissioned by the UK government,
or is likely to raise new ethical, health and safety or social issues which are covered not by current regulation.
Some organizations ventilate their concerns on this topic and a few research programs have been initiated to address these issues.
30 ETC group, Playing god in the Galapagos, News Release (2004)( March), Issue 84.31 S. J. Tans, A r. M. Verschueren, C. Dekker, Room-temperature
which shares a sense of social commitment about a certain issue. 3. Action. Foresight develops and implements strategic visions through detailed action plans,
The issue of sustainable development (SD) has been chosen because it is a key challenge for contemporary societies,
The lack of studies about this issue is primarily due to two major difficulties: its complexity and its uncertainty.
This exercise relied on a systematic, ongoing participation process with experts in SD issues. Change drivers affecting social attitude toward SD were grouped into two axes:
‘‘Predator Development''represents a society that regards environmental issues as noncritical, compared to its economic and consumption requirements.
which are concerned deeply about environmental issues and wish to have a voice of their Figure 4 Scenario A‘‘green paradigm''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 323 own in the planning process.
determining parametric implications Once functional implications have been determined, a set of parametric indicators related to standard sustainability issues (Kates et al.
The final shape adopted by the localities will be a meld of several issues whose major assumptions and deterministic results are summarised as follows.
On the one hand, it offers a comprehensive future vision of a territorial issue and its functional implications, and on the other hand, it encompasses analytical and spatial tools with a view to developing quantitative projections for specific issues.
Third quantitative analysis can lend coherence and credibility to scenario exercises. However, modelling tools should support the process
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (2001),‘Special issue on foresight and regional development'',The IPTS Report No. 59, pp. 1-47.
the scope of FTA ACTIVITIES has widened to cover a wide variety of issues. This has been mainly due to the increasing importance of technological and organisational innovation;
and analyse the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical issues related to identity, privacy and security in the forecasted
which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).
For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,
and would need to complement the technological perspective that has dominated traditionally FTA. 2 It is against the background of such transformative changes that this special issue looks at the fundamental possibilities
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovations in organisations and governance',
The papers presented in this special issue address the above issues by exploring from different angles the growing demand for forward-looking intelligence in times of crisis and uncertainty,
by zooming in on the issue of unpredictability, in line with Linstone's argument on the limitations of forecasting in times of transition between two eras.
These thought-provoking papers of the special issue provide a rich spectrum of insights and opinions on the role of FTA in preparing for Grand challenges.
Here we touch only two issues: weak signals and scenario methodologies. In future-oriented research, the nature and implications of‘weak signals'have been debated actively during the last few years (Mendonça et al. 2004;
and the narrative structures (Wright 2005) that are used to make sense of the issue at hand. As decision-making tends to be inherently a political process,
and other articles in the same special issue of foresight on anticipatory systems. Notes on contributor Ilkka Tuomi is Chief Scientist at Meaning Processing Ltd.
this is expanded in Section 3. Section 4 introduces some important issues that are referred to infrequently in FTA,
The important issue then becomes the understanding of howideas do emerge, in a random manner and sometimes fleetingly, from the fuzzy boundary between the unknown and the barely appreciated.
methodological issues and metaphors FTA assumes that its processes have an innate capability to deal with dynamic situations made up of many interconnected themes, each
The critical issue here is the balance between reliability and external validity (e g. surveys provide reliable data distributions
The next section illustrates how knowledge relevant to FTA can be elicited showing the practical implications of many of the issues raised above. 6. Combining quantitative
The special issue of Technology analysis & Strategic management in 2008 provides a good overview of these intended benefits.
because the role of anticipatory actions is a key issue in literature on strategic management (Ansoff 1991;
In this vein, scholars focused on methodological issues regarding how to implement a large number of foresight practices and techniques.
The following issue in particular remains largely unexplored: how do managers design their strategic foresight approach in different environments and thus under different conditions of uncertainty?
and market issues, such as moves by suppliers and established competitors. The time frame is usually 10 15 years for Global Scenarios,
and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues. Foresight activities address major trends and forces in the political, economic, infrastructural, social,
which progresssivel links macro drivers of change with specific management objectives and business issues. The outputs from foresight activities provide a wide basis of information which explores longaan medium-term changes in customers'needs and lifestyles,
So far, scholars in strategic management have unexplored left a key issue of environmental change: this regards the impact of drivers of change on the identity of the main activities of the value chain and the main components of the business (micro) environment, that is, rivals, suppliers, customers, substitute products,
We define this issue‘boundary uncertainty':'it is the difficulty to figure out who the main players
Our arguments suggest that a crucial issue is the ability to distinguish continuous drivers of change from discontinuous ones.
Special issue, Technological forecasting and Social Change 77, no. 9: 1423 5. Cuhls, K, . and R. Johnston. 2008.
RTDI priority-setting and regional coordination as well as joint programming and also supporting policy-making through the early identification of weak signals of emerging issues.
Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 208 21.
which covers all the issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different social actors inside and outside the organisation.
(i) organisational development enabled by new communicational methods and (ii) marketing issues of environmental technologies. Nina Wessberg is a senior scientist in Foresight and Socio-Technical change team at VTT.
and to compile mentions of possible applications and developmental or impact issues. We also identify active organisations
and market issues. Today's NESTS are more apt for incorporating science-based advances (e g. biotechnologies and nanotechnologies),
and distinguishes vital issues affecting potential commercial or other applications. In particular, we have set‘Step J'engage experts alongside to call attention to the desirability of ongoing involvement of various knowledgeable persons.
it is desirable to elicit ideas from the experts on‘issues'.'That is, what important hurdles must be surmounted along the various innovation pathways?
Figure 7 details a few issues (as an illustration), but a full map would show critical issues that would need to be handled for particular application targets.
For instance, what are the full life-cycle costs for a given solar cell formulation? 4. 7. Calls to perform technology assessment (Step H) Much of the FIP process serves to promote the first type of technology assessment evaluation of competing technologies.
What sort of exposure issues are there? How do they fit within the risk and regulation landscape?
Figure 7 notes possible impacts and issues worth further analyses. The variability among NEST situations and possible decision needs calls for the FIP approach to be considered very flexibly.
Introduction to special issues: Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: Impact on policy and decision making. Technological forecasting & Social Change 75, no. 4: 457 61.
and each country also has its own specific issues, for example rapid aging of the population or economic stagnation.
solving global or national issues through the effective application of science and technology. In this situation, the idea of placing special focus on particular fields has to be phased out,
It is expected that converging technologies will trigger innovation and lead to the solution of social issues in the future.
and adequately embedded in society to achieve social goals and tackle social issues. Foresight is expected to facilitate a framework for integrated knowledge. 2. The 9th Science
and selected 24 priority issues (National Institute of Science and Technology policy, 2009). The results of the preliminary discussion clearly indicated the importance of systematic integration in other words,
The area addresses the issue of constructing a new information society system where ICT underpins the basic infrastructure of society,
specific topics tend to contribute to specific issues, whereas when it comes to technologies related to hard and soft infrastructure (Panel 11 and 12),
single topics tend to be related to solutions for several issues. The extent of expected diversity in science and technology depends on scenario themes
whenever consensus views of complex and controversial issues need to be generated based on constructive debate and mutual trust,
and structuring the issues that need to be the subject of a strategic dialogue is a crucial element.
but not suitable in discussions with stakeholders since many of the issues are politically sensitive and/or inconsistent with the self-image of stakeholders.
Relevant stakeholders from politics need to be identified at the beginning of the process to ensure their involvement in initializing the strategic dialogue and clarifying relevant issues and expected results.
Desk research and‘‘straw man''structure Issues that were raised and initial hypotheses are explored further and complemented by desk research in step 4. The goal is to organize preliminary results into a clear and simple structure that consolidates
and crystallizes issues into a small set of statements and questions that offers a language for BMBF units to discuss the subject area.
Expansion towards external stakeholders Based on the collected information from various sources the issues to be addressed in the further course of the process can be expressed with greater precision.
3). Key issues were crystallized in a dialogue process with the BMBF (step 4) combined with consolidated results from semi-structured interviews with 40 experts
However, with the increasing acceptance of grand challenges, Foresight is expected to make a contribution to orienting innovation towards broader issues (Georghiou et al.
Several issues are addressed that are relevant for those interested in foresight, research and innovation, and grand challenges.
Specifically, the issue identified was the effective marshalling of research, technological and innovation funds to support broad goals for Europe.
and the degree to which organisations were already addressing issues raised by them (see Table II for focus questions used in the roundtable discussions).
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 33 outcomes from the consultation and the empirical evidence gathered, with an emphasis on connectivity between the external environment and the national issues identified.
One potential disadvantage of the latter approach is that it may limit discussions and neglect potentially important national RTDI issues.
Therefore, identifying S&t and innovation priorities for the natural resources sector has become an extremely important issue
Then we investigate the issue of the interconnection of the results of the projects. For this objective
These issues were analysed deeply in the FS2 framework. 3. 2 National S&t Foresight: 2030 (FS2) The aim of this study was an evaluation of required resources
these issues were the focus of FS2. So FS1 and FS2 were connected not only by what we should evaluate,
i e. the environmental issues caused by the mass use of conventional energy such as coal, must be solved,
issues and analysis'',International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, pp. 353-75. Rowe, G.,Wright, G. and Bolger, F. 1991),‘Delphi:
It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis.
therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so-called grand challenges:
After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue.
FTA practices Fundamental change and transformations Grand challenges 1. Introduction Drawing upon a critical reflection on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,
four conceptual, methodological and operational issues are identified and discussed. The second part highlights the main ideas of the eight papers published in this special issue.
These present some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations
four issues seem to be particularly relevant when considering what FTA APPROACHES and tools would be appropriate to address certain policy needs.
and unknown unknowns 2. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches 3. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges 4. Joint responses to grand challenges Below we will elaborate on each of these issues. 2. Known unknowns,
The subjectivity and associated ignorance due to the choices and decisions made will increase as the FTA begins to deal with more complex and uncertain issues
the issues to be tackled; the main objectives; the time horizon to be considered; the desire of their sponsors/clients;
the guest editors of this special issue would stress that one needs to be careful before proposing the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods as the way forward,
In other words, the‘quality'of an FTA project is a complex issue, and it cannot be reduced to the question of its level of methodological sophistication.
and for control of costs would be lost. 4. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges The issues covered by the term‘grand challenges'naturally lend themselves to a global outlook,
those that address an issue that needs to be tackled at the level of nations and world regions,
and social innovations to achieve a structural transformation. 6. Papers in this special issue The papers in this special issue of TFSC discuss various methodological aspects of FTA APPROACHES as well as some advances needed in practice to assist us in comprehending transformations.
and refinement the best papers are presented in this special issue. The paper by Haegeman et al. 4 explores aspects which ought to be considered to properly combine quantitative and qualitative approaches,
changes in regulation, changing/stronger ethical concerns, scarcity of natural resources, environmental issues, etc. as well as due to new combinations of existing and/or emerging technologies.
De Smedt et al. 5 claim that grand challenges require policy-makers to address a variety of interrelated issues
while there is as yet no clear methodological answer to the identification issue there has been some institutionalised responses and new organisational models of FTA,
Defending Against the Unknown, the Uncertain & the Unexpected, Presidents & Prime ministers, vol. 11, Issue 2, 2002, pp. 33 36,(Mar/Apr 2 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 467 470 (this issue. 4 K. Haegeman, E. Marinelli, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, A. Sokolov, Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 386 397 (this issue. 5 P. De Smedt, K. Borch, T. Fuller, Future scenarios to inspire innovation, Technol.
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 432 443 (this issue. 6 M. Weber, A. Havas, D. Schartinger, Exploring the Potential impact of FLA on National Innovation systems.
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 398 407 (this issue. 8 H. Ritteland, M. Weber, Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sci. 4 (1973) 155 169.9 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 408 418 (this issue. 12 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty, Technol.
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 419 431 (this issue. 13 P. Shaper-Rinkel, The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies:
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 444 452 (this issue. 14 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke, Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation, Technol.
Chang. 80 (3)( 2013) 453 466 (this issue. Cristiano Cagnin (Phd) used to work as a scientific officer at JRC-IPTS
and also supporting policy-making through the early identification of weak signals of emerging issues. Attila Havas (Phd, 1997) is a Senior Research fellow at the Institute of Economics
He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues. Ozcan Saritas (Phd) is a Senior Research fellow at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR
They also identified the scientific quality and validity of outcomes of participatory approaches as an issue of concern 18.
Cunningham and van der Lei 28 use such an approach for models providing support to decision-making on the selection of new technologies and discuss the issue of providing equilibrium between different groups of experts and stakeholders.
or issues at the interplay between science and society, to keep track of the content of one's intellectual portfolio of knowledge
key issues and trends. Visualisation techniques and strategic design: During the 2011 International Seville Conference on FTA, the use of images and visualisation techniques was suggested as a tool,
However, it has been applied by the Finnish innovation Fund to develop holistic understanding of a challenge with issues related to ageing, education,
In other words, when dealing with issues surrounded by risk, uncertainty, and ignorance typically issues being dealt with by FTA the value of models is (at least) as much in the process as in the output. 8 Another common misconception associates subjectivity and value judgement to qualitative processes,
but not to quantitative ones. Scientists (particularly natural scientists and technologists) often tend to consider subjectivity, e g. experts opinions
Below we sketch a possible agenda to overcome the main short-term barriers regarding methods selection and misconceptions. 5. 1. 1. Methods selection The selection of methods in FTA remains largely a context-driven issue,
as a natural first step to tackle this issue, one could consider developing a starter kit for combining different methodologies.
including a checklist of contentious issues, risks and traps that require consideration. It could be adapted to serve as an FTA starter kit for combining methods.
The initial identification of issues is one of the stages where the involvement of stakeholders is essential as it allows collecting the views of those who will play an active role in the decision-making process supported by FTA.
http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/Proceedings%20short%20version. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.2 P. Bazeley, Issues in mixing qualitative and quantitative approaches
Change 80 (3)( 2013) 467 470 (this issue. 67 T. Wehnert, W. Jörß, Evaluation paper:
Index number of items in databases such as U s. patents Number of items in databases such as Newspaper Abstracts Daily Issues raised in the Business
and we can even trace an at least three-decade long debate on this issue. What makes the difference now are exactly the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information technology Era
In the previously cited 30-year anniversary issue of TF and SC (1999) Bowonder et al. 3 have reviewed briefly this topic,
and Fig. 1. Technological forecasting in perspective presented by Linstone in the 30-year anniversary issue of TF and SC (1999).
uncertainty is prevalent in complex systems and policy-making related to complex issues. Policy failures are often attributable to the omission of uncertainties in policy-making 7. Policies that would be optimal for one particular scenario often fail in most other scenarios.
And policies that are optimal for dynamically complex issues at a particular point in time often fail at other moments in time.
Hence, in case of complex issues under uncertainty, there is a strong need for policies that are designed to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises,
Policy learning is also a major issue in evolutionary economics of innovation 27 29. Early applications of adaptive policies are also found in the field of environmental management 30,31,
In a recent special issue of Technological forecasting and Social Change on adaptivity in decision-making, the guest editors conclude that Adaptive policy-making is a way of dealing with deep uncertainty that falls between too much precaution and acting too late.
An important issue relates to the hedging action and the monitoring of the costs. Fig. 5 shows that these actions are effective in the early years,
His applied interests include climate change/energy issues, public health and health policies, financial crisis and energy systems. His current research interests are adaptive policy making and the use of optimization in policy-making.
and Analysis (EMA) is an approach that uses computational experiments to analyze complex and uncertain issues.
We noted that Porter et al. 1 shortly touched upon this issue and on the potential of EMA for FTA.
FTA aims at offering systemic considerations on future developments for dynamically complex issues. The comprehensive exploration of the consequences of combinations of uncertainties that can be offered by EMA is an important component of such future-oriented
A central issue in many FTA projects is how to cope with a multiplicity of worldviews and values,
Scarcity of Minerals, A Strategic Security Issue, The hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hauge, 2010.18 E. Pruyt, Scarcity of minerals and metals:
He has worked on cases in various domains including air transport, port planning, fresh water supply in The netherlands, world water scarcity issues,
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