and Table 2. Foresight impact dimensions Dimension Impact issue Raising knowledge Forming attitudes and opinions Initiating action Scientific and technological aspects Scientific assessment:
The foresight literature is rich on the issue of different methodologiie and project selection but not on the seven factoor identified in this study.
Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges,
Phase I was designed to identify the potential issues related to EID. Those issues included: the trends of potential infectious diseases, the timing of the emergence of those diseases, the level of severity of the impacts from the spread of those infectious diseases to communiitie etc.
Phase II was designed to take the findinng from Phase I to determine the possible preparation for the future research
It also identified key uncertainties such as massive natural disasters, manmaad global security issues, and unpredicted breakthrroug technologies.
Policy implications With strong user inputs in scientific and managemeen issues, the foresight project appears to have high potential to inspire
and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA. Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights
what are the necessary R&d issues, the key success factors and the barriers, then the landsccap of each technology application domain emerged.
such as the issue of the continuous involvement of users and the discrepancy between theory and practice in this respeect Although the user-driven innovation paradigm advocates an open perspective
investigating market-oriented, sociological, usability, legal, technological and social networking issues. Finally, the third stage (test market and pilotinng consisted of an evaluation of the results from the second stage on an individual application level
a frequently recurring issue in user research is limited the ability of common users to break loose from the existing frame of reference
Help with serious health issues (Health II cluster) ) 3. 99/5 Download presentations or other information 3. 65/5 Location-based advertising 2. 78/5 Independent living support 3. 93/5 Administration (Administration
But such a random mechanism for distributing subsidies also raises the issue of whether or not the social welfare would be lower
The present analysis yields some information on three policyrellate issues: the type of enterprises that received subsidies from the CTI;
and Feller (2007) for recent reviews of the central issues related to the evaluation of the effectiveness of technology programmes.
which they address key issues in the development and implementation of FTA in relation to these challenges.
Nowhere is this impotence more apparent than in the response to the issue of climate change
the experience of international organisations established to provide a supranational mechanism for addressing such issues suggests that these models are incapable of engaging with such issues.
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovation in organisations and governance.
and policymakkers and a concluding discussion to identify major issues and findings. The agenda was built around five key questions:
what kind of emerging issues should FTA seek to address, which actors should be engaged, what actions should
This special issue assembles a selection of papers addresssin these issues from three main perspectives:.systemic change, reorienting the research
and used, are therefore critical issues. Keenan et al. report on the application of fta by the International council for science when consideerin its most appropriate role in this new situation.
and Vilkkumaa discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning in order to shape systemic policies to address major challennges Due to the increasing complexity of modern societies,
policy-making institutions face growing challennge when seeking to address emerging issues in a timely manner.
This is particularly true in policy contexts where the issues are not yet prominent on the policy agenda
various forms of horizon scanning offer tested approaches for identifying signals that indicate emerging issues. But mere listing of such signals does not necessarily support the formulation of policy issues or, more broadly, the develoopmen of coherent policy themes
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
in order to attain success. In summary, such complex and pressing issues as: adequaatel feeding a global population of six billion:
The contributions to this special issue, as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
'and expand awarenees of emerging issues and situations. It aims to support strategic thinking and decision-making by developing a range of possible ways in
there is the issue of the unpredictability of the future it is neither possible nor feasible to say how the future will be (De Geus 2002.
A second issue arises when we observe the emergence of problems related to the need to coordinate new forms of research and innovation organization,
environmental issues are at the center of political debate, and are also being questioned by those beyond the strict sphere of science and technology (S&t).
and other stakeholders think about the new to collectively foresee related issues, to imagine influence and impacts regarding a specific issue in the foresiigh study.
In this context, planning for out-of-the-box thinking is absolutely necessary if one is to break the mental barriers
and for applyiin a variety of methods and tools to bring the main issues impacting a given foresight exercise to the table.
It is absolutely fundamental that complex ST&I issues are translated into the language of government officers,
the priority issues and critical questions comprise the key points. This starts with the correct identification of factors associated with the subject under analysis, including its nature and scope, time horizon, intended applications of the results by clients etc.
what is occurring in relation to the main issue. In this phase, tasks related to gathering and structuring data, and environment scanning are established frequently.
and understand possible futures associated with the main issues under analysis. In this phase, it is vital to apply collective intelligence procedures,
Changes in attitudes and mind-sets helps people think about long-term issues and be prepared better to face the challenges ahead..
While diffusion relates more to commercialization issues, institution-and capacity-building and governance refer to efforts aimed at creating basic foundations for research and innovation.
its major goal is to address pressing S&t issues for national economic and social development. 5 Finally,
The objectives are to produce groundbreaking research that addresses importaan scientific issues concerning national economic and social development.
these appeals tend to address widely known issues or problems in China's S&t system. In some cases they may even be encouraged by the government, letting experts point to problem areas
In June 2003,20 key S&t issues were identified and studies were commissioned. The process surrounding the strategic studies was open (except for the national defense issue.
More than two thousand scientists, engineers, policy experts, corporate executives, officials from universities, ministries, and corporations participated in the strategic studies.
will play out in the future is a key issue for students of Chinese politics in the years to come.
issues and recent trends',Governance of Public research: Toward Better Practices, pp. 61 76. OECD: Paris..(2008) OECD‘Reviews of Innovation policy:
Based on the empirical case of Taiwan we raise four interesttin issues which deepen our understanding of the concept of NSTISS.
Our final issue is the implications of RTDI policies. With the new concept of an innovation system
Analytical and methodological issues',Research policy, 31: 233 45. Chang, M.-Y. 2004) The Change of Taiwan's Agricultural Community(.
basic concept and issues'.'In: Malerba, F. ed.)Sectoral Systems of Innovation: Concepts, Issues and Analyses of Six Major Sectors in Europe, pp. 9 35.
Cambridge: CUP..( (2005)‘ Sectoral innovation systems: how and why innovattio systems differs across sectors'.'In: Nelson, R.,Mowery, D. and Fagerberg, J. eds.
Concepts, Issues, and Analyses of Six Major Sectors in Europe, pp. 73 119. Cambridge: CUP.
The issues covered by the term‘grand challenges'naturalll lend themselves to a global outlook, are grand in scope and scale,
The main novelty lies in the increasing attention given to such issues in formulating new missions for STI policy.
medium tech and low tech) and on issues such as availability (or the possibility to develop) skilled labour,
and future issues Detect and analyse weak signals to‘foresee'likely future changes and to gain insights into complex interactions
In general, having to deal with more global issues implies a corresponding organisational capacity to deal with them
although concerned with the issue at hand, are involved usually not in any sort of debate. By bringing together relevant stakeholders, EU instrumeent can be a means to enable different parties to learn with one another
and categories of the conceptual framework in order to identify emerging patterns and issues. The analysis will clarify the potential of different institutional models for tackling different types of future requirements.
Social and environmental challenges deal with the causes and consequences of issues such as climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society,
More recently, the scope of the problems and issues to be tackled by FTA has been expanding.
the FTA conferences3 repressen focal points for addressing issues of how FTA is embedded in governance processes,
Early identification of emerging issues and consequuen trends and transitions in society. Interconnecting different areas of research.
and easy access to a wider set of stakeholders is imporrtan to make sense of emerging issues.
because they underlie key scoping decisions on scanning emerging issues and thus shape both implicit and explicit expectations that influence scanners and their behaviour.
The need to deal with global issues implies a corresponding institutional capacity and the ability to respond at the appropriate international level.
Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 21. Brummer, V.,Ko nno la, T. and Salo, A. 2008)‘ Foresight within Era nets:
Increasingly, such issues need to be framed at a global level, reflecting both the international nature of science itself
Because of this, ICSU is uniquely able to bring together the intellectual resources of the international scientific community to explore complex global issues at the interface between different disciplines.
This vision translates into a mission that sees ICSU working with strategic partners to plan and coordinate international research programmes that address major issues of relevance to both science and society.
while the issues covered and various scenarios developed can be adapted and updated to suit the needs of multiple users.
There are also a number of inter-governmental bodies based at the regional level that are working on international science issues.
Related to this are issues around intellectual property regimes in different countries and restrictions on access to data for science.
M. Keenan et al. interdisciplinary science that is needed to address complex global issues. The value of international research programmes,
and capable of addressing societal issues through interdisciplinary research. Since its creation in 1931, ICSU has played an important role in facilitating major international science initiatives.
However, as the issues become more complex, more urgent and truly global, it will need to further adapt
and address issues unilaterally. At the other end, countries have a global outlook and favour international cooperattio when problem-solving.
Related to this is the issue of quality control and who will be responsible for this. The storage and accessing of large amounts of data that could be available to international scientists is another challenge.
Even within cultures the way science will go about handling ethical issues and addressing controversial areas of science in areas of high public interest will be significant for the relationship between science and society.
and civil society now play a key role in addressing complex global issues. These new fora have brought in a wider range of scientific expertise.
and speak with the same voice on many issues. Leadership in interdisciplinary global research: ICSU is seen as an independent platform able to bring together funders and the science community to co-design programmes, building on the success of the Earth System Sustainability Initiative, 2012 22.
Maintaining the integrity of science was recognised as being critical to building an effective relationship between science and society, especially around global issues.
they do address issues of international collaboration. ICSU's lessons match the experiences of ESF.
Teixeira, A.,Martin, B. and von Tunzelmann, N. 2002)‘ Identification of Key Emerging Issues in Science and Society:
With IPRM, one can handle long-term systemic issues, but also more short-term topics with systemic characteristics.
Short-term pressuure for profit dominate over the longer term building performance issues and user needs.
The scarcity of water is an important issue, since Victoria suffers from lowering levels of precipitation and a shortage of water storage facilities.
Sustainability, in an integrative sense combining issues of economic growth, social progress, and environmennta protection, is a rising topic in the emerging markets of the Victorian construction industry.
The aim of the roadmap is to form a perspecctiv on the issue based on VTT's technological expertiis
Economic incentives Increasing prices of energy and raw materials No regulation or economic incentives governmental activities do not encourage the utilization of sustainable ICTS Systemic issues:
it can be a driver for environmental solutions by focusing on issues such as the reduction of materials
The strategic policy issues in environmentaall sustainable ICT start from the present zero position in which there is basically no regulation
Basically, the strategic policy issues depicted here aim to affect this zero state of affairs. The first, and in this case the most fundamental, level is the systemic policies.
the roadmapping approach can combine issues of strategic intervention with potential lock ins and systemic interdependencies.
developing an action plan to deal with common strateegi issues and to prepare for joint activities (75%).
is designed to address country-specific issues Insufficient knowledge of similar national programmes in other countries Lack of budgetary flexibility Lack of mutual trust Source of funding does not encourage use of funds for transnatiiona activities Language
and only reflect national programmes that contain mutual issues Running and monitoring Running a transnational programme is a subject of effective administration and execution of projects.
and use of results IP issues are addressed within transnational framewoor in order to have mutual agreement on use of results Difficulties to fund projects where a company from abroad receives all the IP rights Differences in open access (OA) policies (such as existing incentivves laws
For instance, at the level of international research infrastructures, issues like prioritisation criteria, funding, governance, evaluation and impact assessment are being discussed in Europe (European commission 2010a).
and innovation communities (KICS) of the European Institute for Innovation and Technology (EIT) also face issues of governance, prioritisaatio and evaluation.
The articulation of thematic priorities for transnational research and innovation co-operation, e g. from EU level, raises issues related to their coherence with the priorities and needs of lower levels of governance, particularly in terms of
and industrial leaders on the basis of different criteria. 26 Those issues that were evaluated favourably on the different criteria were prioritised for discussion in a series of four workshops.
and collecting informmatio on the views of different stakeholder groups within these research systems on future issues such as research priorities and implementation modes.
close co-operation with China on foresight) Horizontal co-ordination Cross-feeding of research teams was encouraged by assessment of submitted issues
and asking researrcher for expressions of interest in collaborating in each issue, which allowed advanced network analysis
scenarios and other relevant data (by dedicating a pilot call to research on such future-oriented issues)
foresiigh seems to hold the promise of facilitating the implementtatio of different functions of transnational research programming way beyond the identification of emerging issues, priority areas and relevant stakeholders.
systematic exchange of information and good practices on existing programmes and activities. identification and analysis of common strategic issues. planning and development of joint activities between national and regional programmes. implementation
novelty, tentative researcher's interest and description how the researcher would like to contribute to future projects on the issue.
and Urban Europe on strateegi issues and to ensure a long-term integration of a large number of stakeholders in the implementation activities.
Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues Effie Amanatidou1,,*Maurits Butter2, Vicente Carabias3, Totti Ko nno la 4, Miriam Leis5, Ozcan Saritas1, Petra Schaper-Rinkel6 and Victor van Rij7 1manchester
This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues project.
and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes,
methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers. Keywords: emerging science and technology issues;
early warning signals; weak signals; horizon scanning; policy support. 1. Introduction The 2000s have witnessed increasing complexities in societies.
Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signal. Van Rij 2010a, 2010b) Horizon scanning may also take place in specific policy domains (Botterhuis et al. 2010.
The alerting function helps policy-makers to anticipate emerging issues better and earlier, while the creative function enables the reassembly of issues or the creation of new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integratiio of scan data.
In this way horizon scanning contributes to opening up new policy options or testing developed policies in relation to their resilience to unknown,
but plausibble new emerging issues. This is the case for example with the horizon scanning services in the UK. 1 Horizon scanning also fulfils similar functions with scenario building.
and anticipate as well as discover emerging issues that could have a strategic impact on Singapore. It combines tools,
The present paper draws on the experiences from the seventh European Framework programme horizon scanning project Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues (SESTI.
in order to integrate the diverse information needs of policy-makers about emerging issues. This paper is structured as follows: Section 2 introduces the main definitions,
and dialogue. 2. Defining and clarifying concepts 2. 1 Weak signals alongside emerging issues and wild cards Horizon scanning implies a search process,
Horizon scanning aims to identify emerging issues and events which may present themselves as threats or opportunities for society and policy.
Additionally, in this special issue Ko nno la et al. 2012) regard horizon scanning as:..a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting
These terms are connected closely, if not confused, with the concepts of emerging issues and wild cards.
On the other hand, the concept of an emerging issue refers to a higher level of abstraction in the sense that an issue emerges
The exploratory scanning approach concentrates on assembling potential emerging issues from a wide variety of data from different signal sources
while the issue-centred approach concentrates on identifying core documents (primary signals) that describe substantial Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 209 parts of potential issues.
In the first approach emerging issues are identified and described by processing informatiio from different sources,
while in the issue-centred approach the (preliminary) descriptions of issues are used as a core to identify potential additional signals that could
either confirm or deny the real emergence of the issue. 2. 2. 1 Exploratory scanning.
In exploratory or curiositydriive scanning the analyst, with no specific framework or any potential emerging issues in mind
and how this information is transformed into potential emerging issues that can be interesting and useful for decision-and policy-makers.
The aim of the exploratory scanning approach is to identify a long list of signals that are precursors for emerging issues only demarcated by the policy domain selected (e g. healthcare or energy.
innovation, emerging, issues, impact, change, future, emerging, promising, threatening, solutioons discoveries, problems, crisis, tensions, growth, breakthroughs, breakdowns,
and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).
and that connect these possible futures to current issues for political debate (the discourse)'.'Recent horizon scans of the UK, Netherlands and Denmark show us many examples of smaller and larger potential emerging issues.
They usually describe a future narrative or mini scenario that, according to the cited author or source, should be taken into account by policymakers, society and/or research.
This assessment refers to the potential underlying emerging issue and not to the individual signal.
plausibility (e g. trustworthiness of source), potenntia impact (structural, interests at stake), novelty (lack of policy) and precursor's weight (strength of signal to the issue..
using potential emerging issues as a clusteriin mechanism. Text-mining can also be used to identify clusters. 2. 2. 2 Issue-centred scanning.
Whereas the above, bottom-up approach can be considered as hypothesisgenerrating the issue-centred approach can be seen rather as evaluating a hypothesis (the hypothesis of proposed emerging issues.
The issue-centred approach starts from the wide range of existing and potential emerging issues (hypotheses)
and searches for weak signals in order to strengthen or question the specific hypotheses, i e. reinforce the hypothesised emerging issue
or reveal changes, modifications and disruptions of existing emerging issues in a significant way. Automatic tools are seen as methods to support the scanning for potentially highly important weak signals
then they can be added to the description of the issues. In most cases it will also be necessary to track the secondary signals in the near future to see
whether the issue that was described in the primary signals really evolves or dissolves. Even when the primary signal is followed by many positive secondary signals
and attracts a lot of policy attention the issue may suddenly head in a completely undirected way because of the occurreenc of wild cards or countervailing issues.
It should also be clear that issue-centred scanning does not predict issues. Rather it provides tools to alert for potential impact-rich issues that need policy attention.
In order to identify and assess the primary signals, similar criteria were applied as for the bottom-up exploratoor scanning presented above:
described impact, desirabilitty factual basis, plausibility, novelty to policy-makers, interests at stake, emotional aspects and critical aspects (if the issue appeals
and how the issue relates to present-day decision-making and action). Rather than being antagonistic, the two approaches should be seen as complementary (see Fig. 1). Exploratory scanning mainly refers to the first scanning phase (identification of weak signals)
while issue-centred scanning spans throughout phases 1 and 2 of the SESTI scanning process (cf.
Search engines and text-mining can be applied without the involvement of wider groups outside the project core team (nonparticiipatory) The second way of grouping involves the identification, processing and analysis of weak signals and emerging issues with the help of various levels of automation.
These raw observations contained issue-focused excerpts from written audiovisual and other sources. Written sources included scientific and nonscientific articles in e-journals and newspapers,
which to collect signals on emerging issues. It can be a platform for collecting information about signals and issues
as well as being a place to facilitate expert discussioons Wikis are suited ideally for collaborative learning and have the potential to foster participation,
In the SESTI project an attempt was made to set up a wiki that specialised in collecting voluntary descriptions from many authors on new emerging issues for science and technology.
Within the SESTI project, a survey was run asking various experts about new emerging issues and signals that they perceived.
However, a statement made by an expert that an issue is emerging can also be seen as a signal.
Based on the SESTI experience, an expert survey should be regarded as an additiiona tool with which to evaluate the issues which are identified,
Experts often tweet about new trends and issues and also mention important information from blogs and news websites.
This means that any issues mentioned in these texts are known relatively. More sophisticated software is needed to incorporate the functionalities that are needed for finding new signals and emerging issues.
Currently text-mining is especially useful to identify networks and clusters of phrases within huge data sets but less useful for identifying new signals and issues.
The disadvantage is that the publicly available text-mining software is not yet useful for analysing audiovisual material. 3. Comparative analysis of tools for exploratory
and issue-centred scanning In order to place the analysis of the different approaches and tools that were used in their correct context,
Emerging issues are formulated usually on the basis of searches in different sources and expert interviews. These searches and interviews lead to a selection of more or less full descriptions of potential emerging issues (future narratives)
and also a body of additional signals that are considered to be indicative of the start or development of their emergence.
Step 1 Selection of the broader area where emerging issues will be examined. Step 2 Clustering of weak signals.
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 213 Step 5 Tentative modelling of emerging issues into possible emerging issues.
Step 6 Identification of significant emerging issues. Phase 3 is devoted to the analysis and interpretation of emerging issues with relevance for policy-making.
Policy-makers interviewed at the start of the SESTI project noted that it is important that the analysis of emerging issues considers the possibilities to manage emerging issues
while also identifying the associated policy implications. As has been highlighted a proper assesssmen of weak signals should be translated into policy recommendations.
which provided space for discussing the findings on emerging issues with experts as well as with policy-makers
Within the issue-centred approach it is a very useful tool with which to identify potential emerging issues in a fast
and cost-efficient manner. It also enables the identification of potential secondary signals that can be used to contextualise these issues
and to monitor their further development. Database tools that are connected to search engines such as Google news Timeline, Google Insight, Web of Science,
and analysis phases where there is an explicit focus on certain fields and issues. Comparing the SESTI experience with experiences from other horizon scanning processes,
) Focusing on specific fields, surveys can deliver additional information on various side aspects related to the core issue.
Twitter could allow a continuing clustering of signals related to emerging issues. Policy-makers who were interviewed within the SESTI project noted the importance of methods that allow for identifying the connections, clustering of signals and the stakeholders behind them.
which to analyse which communities have taken up specific issues and how they relate those issues to other issues.
The novelty of weak signals as well as rising ethical, legal, societal or cultural issues, and also possible implications, could also be traced.
Twitter was used also to obtain data for text-mining. However with downloading and processing data from Twitter one of the huge advantages of Twitter was lost:
With a better understanding of the blogosphher it would be possible to develop tools to use collective wisdom to scan future-related signals and emerging issues.
when analysing issues. Conferences may not primarily be interesting as places where one can become aware of new signals as this informattio may be obtained sooner in other places.
However, they are useful for discussing with future-oriented experts as well as with policy-makers the validity of hypotheses on specific emerging issues or their novelty
and interpreting the relevant implicatiion of emerging issues for policy-making). Three thematic workshops on cognitive enhancement, energy and health were organised.
Analytical presentations were made on the selected emerging issues in the different domains. These triggered the discussions that followed.
After discussing the issues participants were asked to vote on the terms of the perceived impact, plausibility, novelty, policy relevance and strength of each of the emerging issues.
the results gave a clearer idea of the relative importance of the issues and the way in
Although some issues were assessed as very important in all aspects policy-makers expressed doubts about whether they would be taken into further consideration
Linkages to issues that were already on the radar of policy-makers were considered helpful for improovin the relevance and usefulness of the scanning outcomes.
even though topics or issues may already be known, they can still be considered to be emerging if they are considdere to be of relevance for the future
the timing of bringing up signals or emerging issues could be a crucial factor for their further consideration in the policy-making arena.
Apart from timing, there are also challenges in bringing forward a potential emerging issue or early signal to policy-makers.
This may particularly be the case with issues which include controversies or require coordination and collaboration across different and segmennte policies In the cases where conflicts may arise even small investments in examining the issues may be blocked.
Overall, potential wild cards and emerging issues, including their early warning signals, have to fight for attention in the political discourse except for situations in which they fit
or are connected strongly into the present-day discourse and provided they are not against the interests of powerful lobbies.
and issue-centred scanning) do not cover the whole scanning cycle but complement each other (cf.
On the other hand, in the focused expert review, the main scanning process of the issue-centred scanning, spans through all the different phases of the scanning cycle
while the last two refer mainly to the issue-centred approach. These combinatiion present different features in terms of the degree of automation of the tools that are used and the degree to
legal, societal or cultural issues Existence of a strategy already concerned with specific weak signal (s) and emerging issues by a government or industry, political party or lobby,
and emerging issues, and verifying the results or reference frames which may be required throughout all the scanning phases. 5. Conclusion Horizon scanning is seen generally as an instrument with two main functions:
and earlier emerging issues that will need probably their attention. At the same time, it is a creative instrument that can be used to reassemble issues
or even create new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integration of scan data.
This function allows a wider range of policy options to be considered. It also helps in the assessment of developed policies in relation to their resilience to unknown,
but plausible, new emerging issues. For the alerting function a comprehensive method is needed to scan
and assess early warning signals that may indicate potential emerging issues from of a variety of media and sources.
alerts for emerging issues coming from the (expert reviewed) internet scanning were assessed discussse and, thus serving the alert function.
On the other hand, the signals and issues presented were used also to evoke creative ideas by recombining (parts of the) identified issues,
conferences for additional signal/issue selection and refinement of reference frame (observation time depends on participants and scanner) Signal/issue selection criteria Predefined criteria based on sources other futurists use (sense of credibilitty
and through interactions and discussions within experts and networks about implications Text-mining enables either‘bottom-up'analysis (from scratch)
In focused expert review the primary signal contains a rich narrative that already relates many aspects of the emerging issues.
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Ethical, legal, societal issues Medium High High Expert discussions, futurists symposia,
In unstructured Internet text-mining results can be filtered according to their issue, to their organisation, to their reputation and creditability on the Internet.
and considered in framing/reframing of potential issues by manual search for related previous foresight activities
Conferences are a place where existing strategies/policies are discussed usually Policy implications assessment Medium High High Associated policy implications of emerging issues are analysed by comparing emerging issues identified with topics
E. Amanatidou et al. create new options taking into account the diverse informattio needs of policy-makers on emerging issues.
identifying and assessing potential emerging issues exist. It is clear that issues are dynamic, social constructs that are based partly evidence,
and partly the results of the imagination, thinking and debating that takes place within different segments of society including scientific communities.
It is about analysing and understanndin the societal contexts behind the entire process of initiation, communication,(r) evolution and disseminattio of issues,
which new issues are (r) evolving through communication in all types of media) and are taken up by decisionaan policy-makers.
In addition, it is crucial to have informatiio about who initiated the signals or issues, who followed, who opposed them,
Tools such as Google Insight, Statistics or Google news Timeline that allow us to obtain metadata as well as backward views on issue-related information,
The SESTI project used the issue-centred and exploratoor scanning methods for the alerting function as well as the creative function.
Overall, it can be said that the added value of emerging issue scans lies in the strategic combination of all available tools to broaden the spectrum of possible signals
It is equally important to utilise automated tools for the clustering and network analysis of issues
For the more creative function it is necessary to realise that the shaping of emerging issues is a social activity where foresight intelligence is shaped (re by the perceptions,
and communication of the most important issues at the right time is both a challenge and an absolute necessity.
as in The netherlands and the UK, important issues were identified that started causing severe damage in two to three years (van Rij 2010b.
If these issues could have been put forward in a more effective way in policy agendas, then it would have been possible to contain this damage before it reached its full scale.
Also via examinattio of relevant thematic foresight reports and recently published policy documents Meta descriptions of issues can be discussed in Workshops with experts
In The netherlands this emerging issue was ranked among the top 20 most importaan issues. However, because of a shortage of resources to monitor these 20 issues in more depth,
policy-makers downgraded the importance of the specific issue by maintaiinin their faith in the reassuring messages from the economic planning agencies (van Rij 2010b).
The special nature of horizon scanning activities points to the importance of continuity to increase the relevance, validity and timeliness of the information.
Even more so, it is crucial to make them aware of the benefits of effectively dealing with potentially important issues early enough as well as the risks of overlooking them.
XXX XXX, in this special issue. Loveridge, D. 2009)‘ Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future'.
2009)‘ A working procedure for identifying emerging food safety issues at an early stage: Implications for European and international risk management practices',Food Control, 20: 345 56.
2010)‘ A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25:1 7. Sutherland, W. J.,Fleishman, E.,Mascia, B.,Pretty
, J. and Rudd, M. 2011)‘ Methods for collaboratively identifying research priorities and emerging issues in science and policy',Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2: 238 47.
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