and governance network-building coupled with avoiding centralised S&t planning. In Germany, FTA is used mainly for addressing the future of existing areas of strength
at the same time, the improved availability of S&t and innovation indicators and the advances in quantitative methods provide more input for quantitative analysis;
For instance, quantitative analysis of this kind offers valuable information for the development of S&t Delphi survey topics,
or to identify Emerging s&t areas 38. Comparison of outcomes of qualitative and quantitative approaches Participants at the 2011 International Seville Conference on FTA raised the potential of the use of qualitative and quantitative methods for identifying
and internationally devoted to Foresight and S&t and innovation policies; managed several national S&t foresight exercises in Russia,
participated in dozens of international projects. Alexander Sokolov is a member of a number of high-level expert groups at the OECD and other international organisations. 397 K. Haegeman et al./
(what) Framing boundaries Shaped by possibility Extreme to inform the middle Eventuality Backcasting from targets Shaped by probability S&t Roadmaps Predictive Backcasting from principles Shaped by preference The natural step Visionary Empowering stakeholders (who) Expert
The Fast Start to Technology Roadmapping, Planning Your Route to Success, Centre for Technology management, Ifm University of Cambridge, 2001.56 T. J. Gordon, S&t roadmapping, in:
and technology landscape of the United states. The U s. stands virtually alone in specifically avoiding centralized S&t planning
This is especially the case for implementations around Emerging s&t fields. These depend on strategies requiring coordination of research activities from different research actors,
and sciennc and technology (S&t) foresight and other FTA TOOLS by its wide scope and its function to envisage the complexity of future societal problems
Defence S&t Agency Singapore, 2009; Spring et al. 2007; Quiggin, 2007. Other examples were initiated by ministries or departments,
Horizon scanning on the national level, across all policy areas (including S&t opportunities) is a receen development
) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.
7 In the same year, the Netherlands8 started a national horizon scanning activity that covered a wide range of (potential) futuur problems, threats and opportunities in all poliic domains (societal sectors) and in S&t.
focusing on the societal needs of the future and Emerging s&t. NISTEP (2005) in Japan executed a scanning-like activity during 2005,
and provides a broad scan of S&t developments and opportunities. The NISTEP exercise combines this broad-scope foresight with a thorough analysis of strengths and weaknesses of Japanese research and development (R&d
S&t (including S&t policy; economy and finance (including its governance; environment (ecological; and politics and public services.
A Table 2. Subcategories Society S&t Economy and finance Environment (ecological) Politics, government, public services Social values S&t reflection Market Hydrosphere Legitimacy-democracy
Demographicsl S&t policy-governance Labour Geosphere and landscape Law and legislation Life styles families Psychology Finance tax Atmosphere Security Labour leisure Physics Outer space Health
and education S&t development Economical context/finance Economics Economy Physical environment Environment Nature Resources Political, administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held
but also for promising opportunities, some of which may originate in new or Emerging s&t findings and insights. All the scans are designed to generate themes and questions that cross policy domaain and research disciplines,
while the Delta Scan of the S&t developments was carried out by the Institute for the Future.
and identify the implications of Emerging s&t and enable others to act on them. COS was the umbrella organisation of the so-called sector councils for R&d that were established by Dutch law during the 1980s to provide strategic knowledge questions for departmental policies in a number of policy domains (environment, agriculture, health,
The netherlands scan contained significantly fewer issuue in the societal domain and the Danish in the S&t domain than the others.
scans Society 18.5 22.4 7. 5 15.6 S&t 16.4 8. 8 15.1 13.7 Economy/finance 21.2 21 6 18.9 20.5 Environment
which contains about 100 S&t issues, the comparison shows that the Dutch scan somehow seems to fall short on issues from the society domain Joint horizon scanning Science
and members of the S&t community through an online Delphi-like survey facilitated by a wiki.
and representatives interviewed incluuded Forfas in Ireland, the National Institute for S&t policy (NISTEP) in Japan, the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Center for Technoloog Foresight in Thailand, Finnsight 2015 (encompasssin a mix of Nokia
or been an advisor to collaborative foresight projects in several emergiin science and technology (S&t) domains such as:
S&t focus? What, in your opinion, are some of the most successsfu assessments of recent foresight exercises?
In Japan, S&t foresight activities feature a recurriin national iterative Delphi technology poll, and also include a quarterly international journal.
In Finland, the Parliamenntar Committee on the Future is supported by a national fund for R&d (SITRA-government investtment augmented by a significant Nokia share sale in the 1990s) as well as by government S&t focused agencies such as the TEKES, VTT
As present (early 2010) there are some encouraging signs of a revival of interest by the Canadian government in a modest S&t foresight initiative so,
nevertheless some appreciation for the contributions that foresight can make to general S&t preparedness. Based on the studies that were done,
and the US for a number of years followed by administration of industrria research and of government science and technology (S&t) in Australia.
and has held academic posts in Canberra and Melbourne in the S&t policy area since then. A major activity has been his association with the APEC Center for Technology foresight since its inception in 1998.
his interest diversified into industrial policy and S&t policy. He was the first director of Chula Unisearch, a business-oriented commerciallizatio unit of Chulalongkorn University and the direccto of the S&t development Program at Thailand Development Research institute.
In 1997, he joined the Natioona Science and Technology development Agency (NSTDA) of Thailand as co-director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight,
This project is a contribution to the better understanndin of the provision of accelerated technologicca responses to combating EID and biosecurity in the APEC region and of the role of S&t in providiin those responses through the concept of convergiin technologies.
and are also being questioned by those beyond the strict sphere of science and technology (S&t).
demands may be associated with innovation, competitiveness, long-term government planning, subsidies to S&t public policies, and the future of complex themes, such as climate change, demography, biodiversity, bioethanol, energy efficiency etc.
planning for small and very large events such as the last three national S&t conferences organized by the CGEE
we now present an organizational foresight exercise developed for FINEP, the main federal S&t funding agency in Brazil,
and trends in intellecctua property rights (IPR) Mapping S&t national capacity according to data available in CNPQ/Lattes databases and Innovation Portal Expert panels to debate the following themes:
and disseminnatio of results Nanotechnology Mapping current situation and future trends in S&t in Brazil and in a number of selected nations,
in order to guide national investments in nanosciences and nanotechnologies Trends in S&t development in a selected group of countries;
and international cooperation) S&t monitoring using text mining techniques applied to relevant international databases Delphi, involving around 1,
S&t funding, nonreimbuursabl grants and loans for firms. FINEP's strategic management plan was developed in 17 months, in an intense and challenging process of looking into the future of the agency and its role in the national ST&I system.
So far, scholarly interest has focused on the overall evolution and design of China's science and technology (S&t system (Ke 2004;
and priorities set in Chinese S&t policy (see, however, the primarily quantitative policy analysis in Liu et al. 2011)).
In an article in People's Daily in August 2010, prominent academmic complained that the current S&t system is overfunnde but institutionally weak (Zhao et al. 2010.
The second is related to institutiionand capacity-building and governance of the S&t system, and in particular floor funding of academic institutiions Ergas'work
and thus presuppose relatively well-developed and mature S&t institutions, basic capacities and governance mechanisms.
However, Emerging s&t systems, such as China's, combine rapid advances in S&t resources with significant Research priority setting in China. 259 systemic immaturities regarding for example funding allocattio mechanisms,
2. China's S&t system and policy: An overview 2. 1 A short history While China has a long history of scientific and technologgica discovery,
in modern times it has lagged behind Western countries in S&t (Ke 2004). Beginning with the founding of People's republic of china in 1949, a Socialist centralized S&t system was built in the 1950s by adding the Soviet model of centralized planning onto the S&t system that had emerged in the Republic of china (e g.
Wang 1993; Simon and Goldman 1989. Five S&t‘forces'or actors were identified: the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the public research institutes affiliated to the ministries,
the public research institutes affiliated to the provincial governments, the universities and the national defense research institutes.
During the‘pre-reform period',the development of the S&t forces was interrupted frequently by political movements, especially during the Cultural Revolution (1966 76.
Overall, the pre-reform S&t system in China was characterized by a disconnection between research and commercialization on the one hand,
and with it its S&t policy, changed radically (Gu and Lundvall 2006; Simon and Goldman 1989),
and open-door policy and was watershed an important event for S&t in China. At the opening ceremony, then-Premier Deng xiaoping Figure 1. Phases in Chinese S&t policy making.
Source: OECD (2008: 72). 260. M. Benner et al. declared that S&t were‘the productive force'rather than an ideological category,
thus reinstating scientists and academmic as‘respectable'members of society after they had been reviled and attacked during the Cultural Revolution and laying the foundation for a politically favorable environmmen for S&t.
As China started the transition from a planned economy to a market economy, this entailed a reconstruction of the S&t institutes as well as the universities and, in particular,
a modest connection between research and commercialization (for analyses of the transition see Feigenbaum 2003;
of the economic system in 1984, of the S&t system in 1985, and of the education system in 1985.
while launching the National Natural science Foundation of China (NSFC) and national S&t programs for researchers to apply to on a competitive base.
A decision on accelerating the progress of S&t was launched in 1995, proposing a national strategy entitled‘strategy of revitalizing the nation through science and education'(kejiao xingguo).
The decision on‘acceleration of progress in S&t'marked a further step towards orienting S&t towards China's social and economic needs
President Jiang Zemin also emphasized the importance of indigenous S&t capability. From the beginning of the reform period, S&t constituted one of the‘four modernizations'identified by Deng xiaoping (and earlier by Zhou Enlai) as pillars of the reform,
the other three being agriculture, industry and national defense. Throughout the era, Chinese leaders have pointed to science as a key to economic progress and competitiveness, most recently through the concept of‘scientific development'and the launching of the indigennou innovation strategy (e g.
2. 2 Governance of the S&t system An important element characterizing the governance of China's S&t system throughout the phases identified before is the strong involvement of China's top leaders in S&t decision-making.
The Ministry of S&t (MOST) plays a key role both through its responsibility for formulating S&t policy for example in the Medium and Long-term Plan and in the five-year plans for S&t development and as a key dispenser of research funds (Springut et al. 2011.
such as the Chinese Academy of S&t for Development (CASTED) but also the Institute for Policy Management at the CAS and academics at selected universities, such as Tsinghua.
The National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance influennc S&t policy-making through their responsibilities for overall economic policy and the budget, respectively.
Finally, provincial governments and S&t offices play an increasingly important role in setting priorities for industrria development
The third level concerns the design of the national S&t programs while the fourth stratum is at the level of research organizattion (i e. the CAS) and funding agencies (i e. the NSFC.
and medium-and long-term plans for S&t (MLP). Thus China has continued on the Soviet model of using plans (jihua,
or guihua) to drive the development of S&t, as well as economic and societal development. The latest MLP was presented in February 2006
and implemented by national S&t programs. China has launched various national S&t programs (jihua. 1 The most salient programs in recent history are the National Key technologies R&d Program established in 1984,
the State High-tech R&d Program (also known as the 863 Program), initiated in 1986 and the State Basic R&d Program (also known as the 973 Program), established in 1997.
and national S&t programs are not independent of each other. Rather they are connected, with the former guiding and providing an overarching framework for the latter (in their five-year plans).
The MOST RECENTLY proposed that the structure of national S&t programs be changed from the‘3+2'(three core programs:
Construction of S&t Infrastructures and Construction of the S&t Industrialization Environment) 3 to‘basic+mega',reflecting the greater emphasis placed on basic research and infrastructure,
S&t achievements State Key and New Product Program 1988 Support new high-tech products for key industries 9th Five-year Plan National Program
with high value-added and foster international competitiveness 10th Five-Year Plan Agriculture S&t Transfer Fund 2001 Foster development of S&t achievements in agriculture
national goals Date of creation unknown International S&t Cooperation Plan 2001? Use global S&t resources to develop critical technologies;
provide a platform for international cooperation State Engineering Technology research Centers Provide technologies and equipment to firms Soft Science Research program Provide reliable scientific advice to national and local policy-makers Source:
Key data for expendditur by Central Government on the main S&t programs is shown in Table 3. Fig. 2 classifies China's main S&t programs,
based on data on national S&t programs provided in the China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology (2009).
or thematic centers of excellence can be juxtaposed with programs aimed at raising the general level of S&t throughout the country.
Table 2. Structure of national S&t programs Research priority setting in China. 263 By classifying national S&t programs into these categories,
we reveal a strong emphasis of China's S&t programs on mission and academic excellence,
'Thus, the‘Innofund+programs'includes Innofund, Spark, Torch, Agricultural S&t Transfer Fund, National Engineering research Centers (data from 2007) and the New National Products Program.
The‘National S&t Infrastructure+Programs'include the National S&t Infrastructure Program, the S&t Basic Work Program, the Special Technology development Project for Research institutions and the NSFC Fund for Less Developed Regions.
Table 3. Allocations for S&t by Central Government in main S&t programs (in million RMB) Item 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1614 1624 3000 5441 5066 National science and Technology Infrastructure Program 100 593 573 754 686 24 S&t Basic Work 200 200
102 150 200 Torch Program 70 70 70 70 70 108 139 152 Agricultural S&t Transfer Fund 400 200 200
further confirming that government S&t funding is concentrated strongly on mission-based research. 3. 2 Mission Traditionally,
the S&t programs of the People's republic of china have had a clear, and sometimes overwhelming, mission orientation, often identifying specific areas where radical innovations are sought.
its major goal is to address pressing S&t issues for national economic and social development. 5 Finally,
The NSFC was a product of the official reform of the S&t system which started in 1985.
The funding of the 973 Program by S&t fields is shown in Table 4. The most salient example is the 973 Projects where the average funding for one project is 30 million RMB, about 100 times larger
and in the megasciienc projects which were launched as a new national S&t program after the MLP.
'Hence, Table 4. Allocation for S&t by Central Government in S&t programs by fields: the Case 973 Program (in million RMB) Item 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total 589 686 800 897 983
aiming at promoting the development of high-tech industry and the use of S&t in rural economic development, respectively.
as are the Agricultural S&t Transfer Fund and the New National Products Program. Overall it could be argued that S&t spending by China's government spending has been focused more on generating knowledge than on utilizing it.
This is not an uncommon phenomenon when compared with many other countries. However, the imbalance acquires greater significance
2011), further accentuating the bias against diffusion in the S&t programs. 3. 5 Institution-and capacity-building Several programs aim at building and strengthening China's emerging institutions and capacities.
Within the S&t programs, the most obvious are the National S&t Infrastructure Fund and the NSFC Fund for less developed regions.
Other programs with institution-and capacity-building features are the S&t Basic Program and the Special Technology development Project for Research institutions.
which strengthen China's S&t system by conducting world-class research, transferring research results to industry, providing S&t policy advice,
and linking China into the international S&t community. Recently, however, the KIP has linked increasingly research at its institutes to mission objectives,
again reinforcing the focus on missions rather than institutional development (Suttmeier et al. 2006). Overall, institution-and capacity-building have received much less attention and focus than mission or excellence as priorities
and Lundvall (2006) who argue that the investments in S&t have not been supported sufficiently by institutional development.
M. Benner et al. 4. 1 Setting the agenda Chinese S&t policy-making can be divided into componeent
The national S&t programs, such as the 863 Program, the 973 Program or the KIP, are created outside the temporal planning cycle in response to problems
Several national S&t programs and initiatives have been created following public appeals or statements made by well-known scientists.
these appeals tend to address widely known issues or problems in China's S&t system. In some cases they may even be encouraged by the government, letting experts point to problem areas
is considered widely to have been the response by then-Premier Li peng to concerns voiced by scientists at the Political Consultation Conference (zhengxie) in March 1997 that basic research was being neglected in S&t funding.
For the above-listed S&t programs, which are implemennte outside the five-year or medium-and long-term planning cycle,
These two groups were responsible for identifying key S&t issues relevant for the next medium-and long-term plan.
In June 2003,20 key S&t issues were identified and studies were commissioned. The process surrounding the strategic studies was open (except for the national defense issue.
In addition to the domestic process, workshops were held with international experts at the Multi-S&t Minister Forum in Shenzhen in October 2003,
A senior policy researcher observed that the main actors involved in S&t policy-making were government ministries and scientists.
Overall, the processes surrounding priority-setting in China's national S&t programs are characterized by formal and elaborate processes with an emphasis on input by scientific experts,
‘Feet on the ground'(lidi) means that Chinese S&t should be targeted at China's strategic economic, social and national defense needs.
drawing S&t ever closer into the political core. The 1978 Science Conference functioned as a starting-point for a renovation of the S&t system by acknowledging S&t as a productive force.
This paved the way for the 1985,1995 and 2005 decisions and plans to strengthen the S&t infrastructure,
linking investments in S&t to broader societal goals which gave science policy a widened political mandate.
More recently, a‘post-catching up'strategy has emerged, integrating S&t with a new evolutiionar path for China,
as a leader in innovation, but also a society balancing economic growth with social stabillit and ecological balance.
Several contradictions confront actors in the Chinese S&t system: the large number of programs and initiatives, leading to overlaps, the ambition to foster public debates and pluralist deliberation,
we still find a strong emphasis on grandiose projects, less on the processes and the governance of S&t and reforms of S&t institutions.
459). 4. Some suggestions about the reform of the national S&t programs management (guanyu guojia keji jihua guangli gaige de ruogan yijian),<www. most. gov
Wu Y.‘Three suggestions to improve China's S&t policy',Guangming Daily, 14 may 2007, <http://www. gmw. cn/01gmrb/2007-05/14/content 605455. htm>accessed 20 may 2011.9.
Shi, D. 2004)‘ The policy-making of the medium-and long-term plan for S&t',<http://www. 93. gov. cn/kjxg/ghdt/ghdt16. htm>accessed 20 may 2011.
and emerging drivers of change Identify New s&t, business, societal, policy and political opportunities Increase awareness of possible risks,
Bach, L. and Matt, M. 2005)‘ From economic foundations to S&t policy tools: A comparative analysis of the dominant paradigms'.
and technology (S&t) co-operation (see Fig. 1). This paper will focus on level four‘programme co-operation and co-ordination'.
Positioning programme co-operation and co-ordination within this wider perspective shows the importance of aligning collaboraatio between different levels of S&t co-operation.
Also lessons from other levels of S&t co-operation (see Fig. 1) are valuable for transnational programming.
authorities and autonomous Mobility and exchange of scientists Programme cooperation and coordination Institutional cooperation Project cooperation Exchange of S&t information Innovation/knowledge clusters 2 3
4 5 6 7 Knowledge exchange Knowledge clustering Level of strategic approach to S&t cooperation Degree of networking Joint infrastructure investments No instruments no cooperation 0 1
Comprehensive strategic cross-policy/sector partnerships 8 Figure 1. Development phases of international S&t co-operation (Gnamus 2010.
Gnamus, A. 2009) Comparative Report on S&t Cooperation of the ERA Countries with Brazil, India and Russia, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 25022 EN.<
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