S&t

Emerging s&t (23)
New s&t (3)
S&t (225)
S&t areas (7)
S&t development (22)
S&t policy (25)
S&t priority (21)
S&t system (18)

Synopsis: Science: S&t:

current trends, the state of play and perspectives S&t intelligence for policy-making processes, Research report, IPTS/ESTO, Sevilla, 2001.5 R. Barré, Synthesis of technology foresight, in:

in view of expected S&t developments, industrial needs and societal demands. The resulting information helps funding organizations in the formulation of their own research agendas,

accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.

Forecasts of the likely future development of S&t are generated; then research and development (R&d) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast.

But for new and Emerging s&t this trusted principle does not work: the likely products are articulated not yet.

These are becoming an important element in European S&t policy but will only be successful if ways are found for closing gaps in the innovation chain. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

For new and emerging fields of science and technology (S&t) where architectural (radical innovations might occur 1,

and Emerging s&t and have to develop strategies in the early stages of an emerging situation.

These lacunae may be explained with respect to the situation of new and Emerging s&t. In exploration and early exploitation of new developments

New s&t are defined not by eventual application but characterised by‘generic richness, 'by linking up with a number of different fields a number of new innovations are enabled 23.

New and Emerging s&t are assessed often in terms of their potential to break through recognized Frontiers, or disrupt existing technologyprooduc linkages 22,24,

is linked back to the underlying dynamics of the emergence of S&t. These dynamics can be explained by the concept of socio-technical path 31,32:

Before delving into the context of lab-on-a-chip for cell analysis we explore what the literature can tell us with regards to insights into emerging path dynamics stemming from sociology of S&t, evolutionary economics and organization studies.

and Emerging s&t. 9 Cell-on-a-chip devices are integrated laboratories on a chip (Lab-on-a-chip) dedicated to cell analysis and manipulation.

which frame possibilities and activities. 10 For new and Emerging s&t, many paths are possible and thus speculation is needed.

and path creation are combined in a research line in S&t studies around the notion of socio-technical paths 31,32, 41.

and stabilisation in the evolution of affordance structures that guide activities in new and Emerging s&t.

Thus over time as the S&t field becomes more stabilised, the patchwork of emerging irreversibilities become part of the affordance structure that shapes ongoing dynamics within the socio-technical path.

To the extent that this path would also comprise benevolent regulation and S&t policies, what we show here as the possible future path/paradigm at the level of an application area (drug discovery) may also be called an innovation system.

and outlook for multi-path mapping as strategic intelligence for reflexive alignment We have reported on a tool to provide ongoing strategic intelligence on evolving actor paths and emerging paradigms related to new and Emerging s&t.

strategic management of S&t; the strategy literature; the general R&d, innovattio management and management literatures; futures studies;

the S&t policy literature; and bibliometrics, scientometrics, and patent analysis. For the conceptual developmeen of MPM, our self-set task was to integrate insights from roadmapping, dynamics of Emerging s&t and expectations,

and path dynamics. We argued that for new and Emerging s&t path dynamics 68 should be addressed,

and can be integrated into FTA ACTIVITIES enhancing the quality of assessment/alignment activities. We mapped initial, potential multiplicity paradigms with path characteristics,

Because of the exploratory nature of this first project of Frontiers'FTA programme, we positioned ourselves as experts in the field of S&t dynamics and path creation vis-à-vis the field-level expertise of the workshop participants.

and exploitation of the generic richness of new and Emerging s&t. The strategy support systems will be developed further for different technology fields being investigated within the framework of the Frontiers research programme.

outline of the theory of structuration, Polity Press, Cambridge, 1984.41 D. K. R. Robinson, M. Ruivenkamp, A. Rip, Tracking the evolution of new and Emerging s&t via statement-linkages:

Douglas K. R. Robinson obtained his undergraduate and master's degree in Physics and Space S&t at the University of Leicester (UK) and Universität Siegen (Germany.

where studies of expectations and paths are combined with strategy articulation tools to provide strategic intelligence for reflexive governance and management of Emerging s&t.

Netherlands on assessment of new and Emerging s&t, specializing in biomedical applications of micro and nanofluidics.

following the Bayh-Dole Act of the US. 24 These S&t, societal and economic factors coupled with various policies

he was Director of S&t Foresight for the Office of the National science Advisor to the Prime minister of Canada and Leader of the Office of Technology foresight for the National research council of Canada.

in transdisziplinären Projekten, GAIA 1 (2007) 41 45.56 R. Barré, S&t Foresight as a Collective Learning process In view of Strategic decision making:

, The Innovation journey, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1999.6 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp, Multi-path mapping as a tool for reflexive alignment in Emerging s&t, Technol.

Ecole des Mines, Project SOE 1981126,'Management tools and a Management framework for Assessing the Potential of Long-term S&t Options to Become Embedded in Society',TSER Programme of the European commission, January 2002.12 A. Rip, Introduction

Explicit S&t priority setting is performed commonly at different levels, including the policy (government) level, the strategic research funding agency) level and the operational (research performing institutes) level (OECD 1991).

as mature S&t systems are marked by extensive‘lock in'that are suited better to evolution than revolution. In fact, what tends to happen is that priorities take account of this‘lock in

A further related consideration concerns the need to maintain‘variety'in the S&t system, so that there is flexibility to change

But in small countries, this is particularly difficult to achieve across the board as many S&t areas lack sufficient‘critical mass'to keep pace with all the latest developments.

and on the other hand, a need to avoid generating an inordinately long list of S&t topic areas requiring excessive amounts of effort to appraise.

In terms of breadth, for example, should participants be asked to assess S&t topic areas against nonscientific criteria? In terms of depth, to what level of detail should criteria be formulated?

'since future investments in research infrastructures or future changes in policies/regulations, for example, can make a significant difference to a country's ability to exploit a particular S&t thematic area.

In large S&t systems, this is particularly important, but is perhaps less important in small systems, such as Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 938 F. Glod et al.

whether existing scientific communiitie alone are placed best to set S&t priorities. An emerging consensus seems to suggest not,

and it is accepted now generally that the users of S&t knowledge and artefacts, including social and commercial interests,

where researchers and research users were brought together in broad S&t area groupings for the first time to discuss

issues of granularity of S&t areas for prioritisation; the availability and use of background data; and the nature of processes of deliberation. 5. 1. Variety and change in the meanings of Foresight The FNR Foresight was born out of the necessity for the FNR to define new research programmes.

who generally lacked the breadth of domain knowleddg to reliably position S&t topics into the schema.

6. 1. Sense-making and the construction of political ownership As the main S&t policy body in Luxembourg,

owing to a lack of common vision among the various stakeholders on the position and contribution of S&t to Luxembourg's socioeconomic development. 7. 2. Setting the‘granularity'of priorities The priorities identified by the exercise were set at a level

first, the already-mentioned lack of vision of the role of S&t in Luxembourg's development meant that some of the criteria were used rather blindly.

Of particular note to FTA, the great science and technology (S&t) databases cover a significant portion of the world's research output.

The resulting information for btech miningq consists primarily of science and technology (S&t) publication and patent abstract records.

as measured by S&t publications, is hot, o patenting, especially new (priority) patenting is much less recent,

In general, we find that the databases provide much richer S&t information resources with a measure of quality control.

many do use empirical information in S&t arenas. Researchers usually mine the literature to find a few bnuggetsq that speak closely to their interests.

& Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1078 miningq exploits the information compiled by S&t and other (e g.,

This paper focuses on the idea that informative mining of S&t information resources can be done quickly and powerfully.

Development of information visualizations especially for S&t offers great potential 12 13. To close, this bnewq method brings to bear available S&t information resources

and analytical tools to generate FTA more quickly. Its novelty lies in the approach to technology analyses in support of technology management.

Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!

or go beyond the processes of thematic priority-setting that are carried out within specific S&t policy instruments such as research

Third, panels that addressed S&t domains with more clearly interpretable titles (e g. health and well-being, materials) found it easier to establish the boundaries of their work than those that had somewhat less conventional

Current Trends, The State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, European commission EUR 20137 EN, Sevilla, 2001.4 L. Georghiou, Third Generation Foresight Integrating

and capacity building Priority setting for S&t Network building Supporting policy or strategy development Analysing the future potential of technologies Fig. 1. Analysis of objectives of 50 foresight exercises. 1 Thanks

Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 287 318.21 A. Sokolov, Identification of national S&t priorities areas with respect to the promotion of innovation and economic growth:

and have more accurate forecasts on the time-horizons of S&t developments. 2. 2. Chosen future perspectives:

Instrumental The outputs were used to contribute to a joint security technology initiative of Canada as well as strategic S&t investments in the Defence R&d Canada Centre for Security Science.

motivated both by S&t developments and by socioeconomic needs. Fixed Scenario workshops, on-line Delphi study, on-line forum, national seminars(‘‘FISTERA road show'')supported by desk research.

Policy recommendations were validated thought interviews of about twenty experts in ICT or environmental policy The 8th Japanese technology foresight program Informative Understanding future S&t challenges.

Instrumental The 8th Japanese technology foresight program aims to provide necessary information for making the 3rd S&t basic plan of Japan.

and find out the prior S&t topics to achieve the social goals. Instrumental‘‘Innovation 25''aims to make long-term strategy for Japan.

The Revision 3rd Korean technology foresight Informative S&t developments Instrumental The‘‘Revision of 3rd Korean TF''aims to strength the linkage between the foresight and policy-making

namely to provide necessary information for making the 2nd Korea S&t Framework plan. Consensual The‘‘Revision of 3rd Korean TF''has analysed the impacts of 19 megatrends & issues,

National Technology foresight in China Informative Understanding future S&t developments and needs. NTFC aims to provide also necessary information for making five-year plan of science & technology development.

and for influencing the allocation of S&t resources in CAS. Consensual TF2020 has set up 6 pictures of China development in 2020,

National Technology foresight in China and Technology foresight towards 2020 in China as well as National Technology roadmap in Korea were all strongly informative processes that were initiated to capture experts'views on future S&t challenges Hence,

motivated both by S&t developments and by socioeconomic needs 23. FISTERA did influence directions for R&d in ICTS in Europe.

and how S&t foresight and strategic S&t investments in the new Centre for Security Science could help to acquire those capabilities.

for example, the implementation of S&t policies may call for a sufficient degree of consensus about appropriate policy instruments (e g.,

Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-20137-EN, Seville, 2001

Practically any source of insight into the dynamics of science and technology (S&t) their production, communication, application can be utilised as knowledge inputs into FTA.

which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond

a matter of participatory democracy as commonly understood though such FTA could be an important contributor to establishing more deliberative democracy in S&t policy areas that have on account of the expert knowledge associated with them historically been dominated by vested interests and technocratic elites.

This can be seen as a reflection of the growing complexity of S&t decisions, which is associated with such factors as the combination of multiple scientific and technological knowledge bases in many 7 Naisbitt 36,

Even technocratic FTA has to confront the likelihood that no single organisation will itself contain expertise on all of the matters that bear intimately on a specific set of S&t issues it will be necessary to go out to a wider set of communities.

Quite often, too, there will be nobody that is really expert on the social issues connected with Emerging s&t developments,

Perhaps the least important but quite possibly a factor whose importance will grow in coming years is the rise of public concerns and associated social movements around many S&t issues.

issues where S&t‘‘solutions''to widely shared problems may well be contentious (geoengineering and other technological solutions to the climate change crisis as opposed to change in lifestyle and corporate practice);

We may anticipate that developments in S&t that profoundly affect our understanding of what it is to be human (e g. cognitive enhancement, artificial intelligence,

human cloning and chimeras) are especially liable to fuel more extensive public engagement in S&t topics.

More recently, the pace of migration of new science and technology (S&t) has increased under the influence of the widespread use of new socioeconomic communication technologies and the globalisation of the world markets.

exposing the hidden social consequences and concerns for the future of advances, real and imagined, of S&t though in very different ways.

and has support themodern criticismof the role of S&t in human development. During the Cold war nuclear weapons strategies were emphasised by Herman Kahn

and others 5 7. The nuclear threat was seed the for the current call for new forms of governance to cope with the regulation of S&t that is now embedded in the combined phenomena of globalisation and glocalisation of business, with effects on every aspect of modern

By the early 1970s, the clamour for governance of S&t resulted in the formation of the PAU in the UK and the OTA in the USA;

New fora for involving the public in the governance of S&t came in many forms from the 1970s onwards,

a series of diagrams are used later to illustrate some of the issues that will need to be incorporated into any future mantra of governance and the evolution of S&t.

and other activist groups, continues unabated introducing more complex intrusion into developments in S&t. These concerns have been assuaged partially by the evolution of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), both

and analysing Emerging s&t issues 2 . Although a wide variety of definitions exist, the paper seeks to narrow the range of

Major S&t developments and their societal impacts; Policy or regulatory changes that lead to changes in government priorities, company actions and investments;

Balance was distributed well with economy-ecology leading but S&t, geopolitics, security and culture close behind;

Strong emphasis again on ecology-environment and economy with Society and Culture and S&t close behind;

, interrestrial visitors, alliance, eco-collapse, biotech Increased impact of converging technologies on social life Natural language codifications becomes available allowing people communicate globally New s&t paradigms for knowledge society

Distribution toward S&t and energy is different from previous categories; Good range of trigger events and situations;

and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.

Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, available at: http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/eur20137en. pdf Tuomi,

are performative Expectations enhance the strategic character of S&t priority-setting The efficacy of foresight as an antidote to lock in is limited Enhanced legitimation for selected priorities Foresight exercises

and technology (S&t priorities should be complemented by the identification of key long-term demand for resources and reshaped management systems.

Therefore, identifying S&t and innovation priorities for the natural resources sector has become an extremely important issue

In 2007, the RF Ministry of Education and Science initiated the National S&t Foresight until 2025 to identify S&t priorities (Sokolov, 2008a,2009.

The final objective was a preparation of policy recommendations on the basis of the S&t priorities;

Therefore for this additional investigation the RF Ministry of Education and Science initiated the second cycle of the National S&t Foresight until 2030.

Within the implementation of this foresight study it was realised that S&t priorities should be complemented by innovative priorities for corresponding development of the Russian management system in the field of natural resources,

otherwise the S&t priorities could not be implemented fully. The third foresight study commissioned by the RF Ministry of Natural resources and Ecology was devoted to exactly this task:

i e. to prepare recommendations for shaping Russian national S&t and innovation policy in the sphere of natural resources and environmental protection.

The structure of the project, including analysed S&t areas and levels of analysis, is characterised in the next step.

and interviews were conducted with heads of project teams. 3. Russian FS approaches 3. 1 National S&t Foresight:

B estimation of possible timeframes for major S&t breakthroughs; B evaluation of the position of Russian R&d centres in the international S&t landscape;

and B determination of the most relevant steps to be taken to support the development and commercialisation of science and technology.

PAGE 42 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 This study was based on another foresight study devoted to the identification of national S&t priorities and a corresponding list of critical technologies (Sokolov, 2008b.

and implement the federal goal-oriented programme‘‘S&t priorities for Development of the Russian S&t Sector in 2007-2012''.

''This programme was structured in accordance with the identified S&t priorities, and specific projects were selected on the basis of their relevance to the identified critical technologies.

(which correspond to National S&t priorities), 56 technology areas at the second level (which correspond to critical technologies) and more than 900 topics.

Eighty-two topics were formulated for these five thematic areas, in the form of briefly described S&t results, promising technologies or innovation products (e g.‘‘

''The methodology of this study included various expert and analytical techniques being engaged to prepare this S&t foresight (analytical research, bilbliometric and patent analysis, interviews with and polling of experts,

These issues were analysed deeply in the FS2 framework. 3. 2 National S&t Foresight: 2030 (FS2) The aim of this study was an evaluation of required resources

and possible innovation projects for the most important S&t fields. The National S&t Foresight: 2030 was based on the FS1 results and also on a renewed version of the National S&t priorities and Critical technologies.

The study covers three thematic levels, the first of which corresponds to the revised list of National S&t priorities:

B Information and Telecommunication systems; B Living Systems; B Industry of Nanosystems; B Transportation and Aerospace Systems;

B Rational Use of Nature Resources; and B Energy efficiency and Energy Saving.‘‘‘‘Rational Use of Nature Resources''was considered

More than 300 experts from the S&t and business communities, as well as government officials, took part in the exercise.

Topic Importance indexa Expected time of developing S&t solution Possible results (percentage of experts; two top scores) Technology area 1 Technologies for accelerated and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity 97.6 2019 Contributing to dealing with social problems (76.3

and S&t development is almost impossible within the inertial development model for a number of reasons,

‘‘Innovation priorities''in the above study were considered to be major activities in the Russian natural resources sector's management system that would contribute to achieving the RF S&t priorities and solving the main problems in the area.

The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.

and 2. conditions for S&t priority realisation. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 47 As a result of this study, the innovation priorities and corresponding tasks were formulated for each structural component of the natural resources sector.

In the FS1 framework S&t topics were assessed by different criteria, and in the FS2 framework technology groups were assessed (identified on the basis of the most important and well-developed FS1 topics).

The FS2 criteria for the evaluation of technology groups were identified mostly on the basis of the results of FS1 (see Table I). National S&t Foresight:

and that this was preventing S&t development. FS3 was initiated on the basis of these results and commissioned by the RF Ministry of Natural resources and Ecology (because the focus of FS3 is in the the sphere of responsibility of this Ministry).

and key limitations for S&t development (FS2) created the framework and demands for the identification in FS3 of innovation priorities (see Table III).

in the FS1 framework a large database of promising S&t areas was created; this allowed policy makers to derive a wide range of an information, for example:

B estimates of the level of Russian R&d vis-a vis the world leaders for major S&t areas;

and B measures to support R&d and their commercialisation for all major S&t areas. These FS1 results were used as an information source for many political purposes:

B revision of National S&t priorities and Critical technologies; Figure 3 The general scheme of the structure of projects interrelation VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 49 B design of large-scale innovation projects;

B identification of research projects to be funded within federal and sectoral goal-oriented S&t programmes; B designing sectoral strategies for industries;

and B priorities for international S&t co-operation. However, the real contribution of the Delphi study results to the development of policy documents was mostly indirect

In order to prepare direct recommendations for shaping S&t and innovation policy it is necessary to have more detailed and precise information about resource requirements, the evaluation of emerging markets,

This study provided a more profound knowledge of national competitive advantages the resources required for development of the most important S&t areas,

The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends, whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.

The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists of the most important innovation

and this is preventing S&t development Innovation priorities for the Russian management system in the natural resources area, which should create conditions for S&t development

and promote solving the key problems identified in the FS2 framework FS3 An identification of innovation priorities for the Russian management system in natural resources until 2030 The innovation priorities

and the large number of players, imply the need to use integrated approaches for identifying S&t and innovation priorities for this sector.

The innovation and S&t priorities for the Russian natural resources sector were identified in the framework of three connected foresight projects.

revision of National S&t priorities and Critical technologies: design of large-scale innovation projects identification of research projects to be funded within federal and sectoral goal-oriented S&t programmes designing sectoral strategies for industries regional priorities for innovation development priorities

for international S&t cooperation However, the real contribution of the Delphi study results to policy documents was mostly indirect

because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,

whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at the development of S&t.

The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists of the most important innovation

The first of these projects identified major S&t results in the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''area,

assessed the current level of Russia's S&t development, and the country's international S&t co-operation potential through the development of a national innovation system.

The study significantly extended the information basis for policy-making, which however could not be used directly in decision-making.

A clear need was highlighted for more detailed analysis of future demand for human, financial and other types of resources for S&t development.

and the potential for further S&t development identified the need to increase appropriate investments significantly. Also, major innovation projects were identified with the promise of high economic and social return.

On the basis of this project recommendations for Russian S&t policy which include the most important research

widespread national Delphi survey for the identification S&t priorities (which was our FS1) should be complemented by the identification of key long-term demand for resources

S&t for the 21st century'',Foresight Consolidation Report, available at www. nrc-cnrc. gc. ca/Nordic Innovation Centre (2007),‘Foresight in Nordic innovation systems'',Nordic Innovation

and technology (S&t) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization,

or quality and help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&t and the current capability.

and technology (S&t) activities in time to permit appropriate responses; and 3. to anticipate and understand S&t-related shifts or trends in the competitive environment as a preparation for organizational planning and strategic development.

To date, studies on CTI have used a full range of analytical techniques, including content analysis, patent analysis, bibliometrics,

of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP) Foresight and Strategy Planning Team, Korean Institute of S&t Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), The Science

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