which successful approaches and ideas from the past discourage employees from innovation. Scanning processes can provide quick, occasional doses of chaos to employees and managers.
A gradual awareness and general agreement for moving away from one-size-fits-all approaches is giving foresight an enhanced role in policy design tailored to particular context
and shape the future of their innovation environment 6. Firms are increasingly playing a role in defining innovation policy due to the rise of demand side approaches and the convergence of corporate and structural foresight.
Our contention will be that the validity of this type of approach is being challenged first by a recognition that such priorities cannot exist independently of a consideration of the structures
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 244 can see a polarisation of approaches between, on the one hand,
and on the other hand ongoing activities such as horizon scanning activity which provides the basis for informing the first type of approach.
An influential approach emerging from industrial ex ante project selection methods was developed by the Australian National Laboratory CSIRO based upon a matrix of attractiveness and feasibility.
and that, given the wide range of risk/reward profiles among the selected areas, that a portfolio approach should be adopted.
A tougher but still limited approach very often used by funding bodies, is to‘‘topsliice'a proportion of resources from competing recipients
which are intended to build on a thematic or priority-setting approach for example building action networks around the priorities and foresight exercises
and the participants and operators of foresight exercises who confront the realities of the need for structural change and a process-oriented approach.
Havas has argued that the actor-based approach is only meaningful if it is embedded in an understanding of the research systems in
this approach is understood as concentrations of industries supporting each other. A cluster was identified originally by means of analysis of market interactions between industries along value-chains.
However, the approach also emphasises the means by which framework conditions affect complex linkages within and between industries and the influence of social, economic and cultural factors.
The application of foresight approaches to these areas has been explored by Blind who focuses on approaches which identify future fields for regulatory action
and innovation policy offers a robust future for these approaches. For the community which has developed them the challenge is to ensure that their standards of rigour
forecasting and technology assessment approaches foresight is perhaps the most comprehensive one suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.
Interestingly, these dimensions match largely with approaches addressed when the major societal challenges are dealt with. The locus of foresight activities has tended to shift from positivist
and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards the recognition of broader concerns that encompass the entire innovation system,
The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process
and final outcomes 8. The systemic understanding of innovation processes has challenged conventional technology driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that address also the consideration of diverse perspectives, formation
The management approach and stakeholder engagement refer, instead, to the process-related aspects of the project, for instance responding to a question on how the outcomes were achieved and by
consensual vs. diverse Future perspectives can be addressed to define the approach of how and with what methods the project develops understanding of the future.
it is crucial to be able to develop also consensual visions and recommendations into action for policy and in more general decision-making processes. 2. 3. Chosen management approach:
fixed vs. autonomous The foresight process can be taken up with different kinds of management approaches, which are driven often by the diverse expectations laid on the project.
Furthermore, those in charge of the foresight process are likely to benefit from the sharp definition of their role and approach in the management of the process.
Here, two extreme approaches can be identified in view of the classification purposes 10: Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the project at the outset and control the process,
extensive vs. exclusive One way to conceptualise stakeholder engagement is to define extensive and exclusive stakeholder engagement 12 and the continuum of different possible combined approaches between them, namely from confined exclusive engagement to extensive but exclusive
Extensive stakeholder engagement refers to the approach in which the actual number of participants is high,
also to adapt the methodological approach. Extensive There was an extensive engagement of stakeholders. More than 500 experts including policy makers,
While the authors consider diverse approaches valuable in the realm of foresight to address societal challenges, for the purposes of this paper,
A review of FISTERA by NISTEP underlined the relevance of FISTERA's approach to formulate national science and technology policies also in Japan 24.
and the inclusion of diverse and alternative viewpoints that can challenge incumbent and path-dependent approaches hindering especially radical changes in the innovation system.
The instrumental approach and still integration of diverse perspectives was largely possible, because the project was organised internally,
which are addressed often as strengths of many foresight methods and approaches. It may often be appropriate to design a foresight process as informative
and the implications for regulation towards an approach for the information society, COM/97/623, December 1997.17 Nordic ICT foresight, available at:
when there is a real difficulty with applying formal modelling approaches to the topic in question. 2 Such methods allow us to explore the structure of opinion
An alternative approach the application of evolutionary theories to human faith, spirituality and religion is not necessarily incompatible with this.
and Miles 33 for a detailed comparison of two different approaches to eliciting expert opinion (cross-impact versus Delphi method).
which suggestions for participants and dissemination approaches are elicited. 3. Methods and tools So, FTA has many faces
We can point here to such approaches as risk assessment, roadmapping, and some specific tools of operations management and operational research (such as DEMATEL,
the accumulation and integration of knowledge about different tools and approaches is very uneven. Many (probably the great majority of) FTA practitioners are familiar with only a limited number of these tools.
The tools and approaches have been created in very diverse contexts and by different communities; they feature different philosophies.
But anecdotal evidence suggests that many FTA practitioners are simply reiterating the particular approaches with
which they have been familiar for many years, with little acquisition of new approaches and little awareness of the costs, benefits and broader implications of alternative methods.
Various approaches to prioritisation (such as key technologies analysis, plotting feasibility against impact of various actions, MCA,
in addition to standard project management methods, approaches needed for the selection, recruitment and mobilisation of participants in the process.
and even later stages involving the embedding of FTA practices and approaches.)The selection of methods is a task,
These approaches assume that one person, or a small group, can be informed sufficiently well about numerous issues
and key technologies approaches coming to the fore, alongside other tools such as research evaluation and impact assessment.
Several influential approaches to KM and organisational learning have emerged in recent years and we turn briefly to these. 9 5. Methods
The earlier discussion of sensemaking and foresight phases can readily be related to such a SECI approach.
using a wide variety of different approaches and methodologies (agent-based approaches, neural network-type approaches, fuzzy approaches, etc.
Nor is it a matter of approaches being mutually exclusive. Formal models (for example, diffusion and substitution analyses) can only go so far
and risk assessment approaches (see 24), two recent examples where a complementary approach was adopted retroactively come to mind:
In the UK, there had been major scenario work on strategies for developing a competitive edge in nanotechnology and literature/expert surveying of social issues associated with this field, in the early years of the present century.
SWAMI took a more critical approach to the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical implications surrounding such issues as privacy, control of information, and identity.
but Web2. 0 social networking approaches, and collaborative modelling approaches are creating opportunities for much broader engagement in FTA ACTIVITIES.
This will pose considerable challenges for KM: not only will much of the relevant insight be generated on a bottom-up basis,
New approaches to governance Cristiano Cagnin a,,*Denis Loveridge b, Ozcan Saritas b adg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Calle Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092 Seville, Spain
The implications of this approach for relationships between the society and public policy explain the shift from the government to governance.
the this new approach brought the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) concept onto the agenda, explaining that businesses have further responsibilities,
and encourages an integrated approach to development which promotes partnership as a key element of good governance.
company and plant specific factors that are difficult to detect through analytical approaches. The issue of the causal sequence between financial and social environmental performance remains unresolved.
Descriptive research suggests that managers focus on the economic dimension of CSR revealing two shortcomings on firms'approach CSR
and replication of successful solutions Table 1 A strategic approach to CSR. Generic social impacts Value chain social impacts Social dimensions of competitive context Good citizenship Mitigate harm from value chain activities Strategic philanthropy5 that leverages capabilities
Nevertheless, it is the responsibility of a company's board to take forward such an approach in a strategic way
Doing these things requires a new approach to both CSR and philanthropy than the one prevalent nowadays.
Companies need to shift from a fragmented, defensive posture to an integrated, affirmative approach. The focus needs to move away from an emphasis on image to an emphasis on substance.
A Management Science Approach, John Wiley, Chicester, 2001.16 A m. Weinberg, Science and trans science, Minerva 10 (1972) 209 222.17 R. E. Freeman, Strategic management:
A Stakeholder Approach, Pitman, Boston, 1984.18 O. Saritas, L. Pace, S. Stalpers, Stakeholder participation and Dialogue in Foresight, From Oracles to Dialogue:
This approach was selected because it was considered that a clear definition of the terms supported with examples would help the participants in completing the survey, particularly those with less Foresight experience,
may create discontinuities in national and international policy approaches toward climate treaties design and promulgation;
/O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 297 3. Big Picture Survey 3. 1. Motivation and approach Up until the Future-oriented technology analysis
ecological behaviour reverse perception of a resource scarce world Discontinuities in national and international policy approaches toward climate change Breakdown of world order Resource scarcity creates new motivations
Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
Recent crises and the threat of major longer-term changes are fostering a view that business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges.
sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. Research limitations/implications From a large set of excellent papers presented at the FTA 2011 Conference,
In this way the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events is enhanced through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights.
sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. A first example looks at the application of fta methods to transport planning.
Major findings were obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events,
foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide PAGE 280 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 society.
the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,
Originality/value The paper has a novel approach for structuring FTA techniques that goes beyond the traditional quantitative/qualitative approach.
The results of a planning process are shaped by the specific combination of the different approaches. The huge variety in tools and methods,
Therefore, a problem-oriented approach is required. Problems linked to missing or incomplete knowledge in transport panning need to be addressed.
that differentiating between different levels of uncertainty appears to be a promising approach. Positions differ on such typologies of uncertainties and the relationship between knowledge types and uncertainty.
But wide parts of the‘‘real world''cannot be included in modelling approaches; it is not possible to detect any effects in excluded areas.
) This categorisation has considerable overlaps with the distinction between qualitative and quantitative approaches. One of the main criterions to distinguish between tools
but the main characteristics of these approaches is the way in which they seek to PAGE 286 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 integrate knowledge of experts, stakeholders and also of laypeople in the process of policy making.
Approaches for two-way communications are based on the exchange of arguments in a predefined situation. Again
these approaches can be unstructured widely or more strongly formalised. Examples include round tables, future workshops, planning workshops with citizens,
More structured approaches could be workshops, where a predefined set of key questions is used to guide the discussion.
and unknown unknowns (see Figure 1). 3. 2 Structurally closed methods Structurally closed methods are characterised by highly formalised and pre-structured approaches.
Quite often several methods are packed together under the umbrella of more integrative approaches. These tools are used to integrate data of different character and sources.
The term‘‘scenario''subsumes a broad range of tools and methodological approaches. In general, several tools are combined in a scenario process (workshops, CBA, trend analyses, models, Delphi, roadmaps and others.
Scenario processes and modelling approaches quite often play an important role. In particular for SEA, participatory or consultative methods are used also frequently (see Rauschmayer and Risse, 2005.
4. Illustrative exemplification of the approach The main intention of the differentiation between structurally open
In this chapter some real life examples are given to illustrate briefly the potential of the approach. The focus is put on the combination of structurally open
According to the approach introduced in this paper, it would have been subject of open methods to clarify these assumptions.
It needs to be accompanied by an open approach, which allows for discussing the potential consequences with experts and decision makers.
because it was shown not in the results of ex ante modelling approaches. Again, this means that the cause-effects relations between infrastructure supply and traffic demand were obviously not fully understood,
Limitations of models and other quantitative approaches have to be discussed in relation to the data that is included in the process.
It helps to get a better understanding of discursive or participative approaches, on their potential role for gaining knowledge that is needed for anticipating unintended effects of policies.
The approach is not solving problems such as inaccuracy in data; it does not provide directly for new knowledge;
the approach aims at supporting a more proper handling of uncertainties by enabling a more appropriate application of fta methods.
) The structurally open/structurally closed approach (see chapter 3) could be discussed within this context but further elaboration would go beyond the scope of this paper.
Rauschmayer, F. and Risse, N. 2005),‘A framework for the selection of participatory approaches for SEA''
Complexity science approaches to the application foresight Averil Horton Abstract Purpose This paper aims to present an exploration of recent work in complexity theory to explain why
but either way, a critical thinking approach can be helpful. Bringing together complexity theory, reframing and some critical thinking provides a way to understand how techniques can work better,
and control approaches do not work in complex systems. The resulting implication is that a system cannot be controlled from above
In this case promoting variation also constitutes a risk management approach, whereby a policy is more able to work as its environment changes
and undertaking cost-benefit analysis. 2. Create an enabling environment for variation by facilitating conditions that enable societies to create alternative approaches to achieve a common objective
The approach of using backcasting was predetermined also specifically. This method fits very well for the use of public decision-makers
The backcasting approach, applied in this scenario exercise, is a scenario coming back from the future to the present.
Another risk of this approach is that calculations and assessment of, for example, energy use of some industrial processes,
In the pallet of the methods of futures studies catering many different approaches to different needs can be found.
recent progress in the use of participatory backcasting approaches for sustainability research'',Technological forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 78, pp. 756-68.
By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.
Furthermore, a systematic approach is necessary to map these indications that give insights in the situation.
buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes
bthe proprietary manufacturing approach will enable for the first time the ultra-large scale integration (ULSI) of carbon nanotube-based devices in a deep sub-micron semiconductor fabrication line.
via a prototype (May 2003) to manufacturing a proprietary approach (2004). Hence, the developments at Nantero show a clear way towards commercialisation.
developments of TA were leading to different approaches in the United states compared to Europe. In the United states TA kept to policy analysis,
while in Europe the approach is focussed more on addressing different social groups. In the late 1980s the notion of constructive technology assessment (CTA) became apparent in Europe.
The prevailing type of study in journals and books on technology dynamics is a retrospective analysis. The drawbacks of a retrospective approach are well-known:
of a CTA study (at least in some approaches) is the formulation of bsocio-technical scenariosq 35,
The Approach of Constructive technology assessment, Pinter Publishers, London, 1995.33 R. Smits, A. Leyten, Technology assessment, Waakhond of speurhond?
Findings Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory.
With this aim in mind, an approach is presented hereby to link foresight tools and the urban planning process.
The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.
This approach consists of five sequential steps (see Figure 2): 1. Formulation of future visions. Traditional foresight tools such as vision or scenario design are used to create a future vision of the territory and its broader socioeconomic context in a narrative format.
Although this approach is not new in the strict sense, since most of the proposed steps have been used implicitly or explicitly in the urban planning field,
formulating a future vision for sustainable development Once the proposed approach to link foresight tools to the urban planning process has been established,
linking the different lines of sectoral planning under a comprehensive approach. Environmental, transport and land-use planning are intertwined
parametric and spatial implications, formulating strategies for future urban development appears to be a quite logical and deductive step in the proposed methodological approach.
Figure 10 Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 331 5. Applied approach to territorial foresight The proposed method to reconcile territorial
this approach has allowed us to mature ideas and contrast instruments with parsimony in a little-explored field of knowledge. 6. Main findings
since the methodological approach has to be tested further in a wide variety of urban contexts, some tentative conclusions can be drawn from the evidence
With respect to the assessment of the approach proposed in this paper some findings are worth mentioning. First, the foresight method appears to be user-friendly for regional and local decision makers and quite manageable for technicians.
Although the approach is process-oriented, it generates a tangible product future scenarios and their functional, parametric and spatial implications
The complementary added value of both approaches can represent an innovative opportunity for policy makers and stakeholders searching to respond to future challenges.
Therefore, foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide society.
and academic programmes that are already employing FTA methodological approaches to pursue their objectives. Findings Based on these examples
the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,
and presents a new methodological approach to law. It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessmentmethods and tools to the legal sphere.
and presents a new methodological approach to Law. It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight
and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.
and articulate the growing number of instruments, approaches and procedures, it has created also its own identity,
Cagnin and Keenan (2008) have called attention to the need for a wider examination of FTA TOOLS and approaches.
In the following sections, a series of initiatives (existing and/or prospective) regarding the application and use of specific FTA TOOLS and approaches In law, namely to legal research,
moreover a methodological approach that comprises two important FTA TOOLS: Delphi studies and scenario planning. In the following section,
The consultation of experts as a methodological approach to the study of the future of law resulted in a very original and creative exercise.
The approach is thus a global and systematic one looking at Law and legal systems from a series of different angles and perspectives.
In other words, the reactive and responsive approaches that traditionally characterised the work of police VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 341 forces has been complemented with a research-based approach that strives to detect
which encourages the use of criminal intelligence to support collaborative, multijurisdictional approaches to crime prevention,
or threat increase the ability to create information-based approaches to prevention, thwarting, resource allocation,
These fact-based approaches promise to increase citizen and officer safety alike. 4. Discussion 4. 1 Advantages of using FTA in law The FTA METHODS
Regarding specific FTA TOOLS, survey approaches such as the Delphi methodology used by the LOFT project carry specific benefits to Law.
More evidence-based approaches to the assessment of regulatory quality allow a review of the effectiveness of policy tools used in practice
case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,
The latter constitutes an innovative approach to law enforcement. In fact, it reveals that the successful application of fta to Law encompasses all of its different domains,
or research is vital for the consolidation and continuity of this approach, as otherwise the suggested application of fta to Law may run the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of policy and decision makers. 4. 2. 2 Neutrality and objectivity.
PAGE 346 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 2. 3 The incorporation of FTA quantitative approaches to law.
The application of fta quantitative approaches to Law should not replace the‘‘human touch''In law, but assist their scholars,
which may (and should) make use of scientifically oriented tools and approaches, such as the ones of FTA,
as a way to render Law a future-oriented activity that uses scientific methods without transforming itself into one of them. 5. Conclusions This paper has proposed a new methodological approach to Law,
methods and approaches that enable Law to acknowledge and anticipate (if not construct) the various possible future developments that will guide society.
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
The paper presents and develops three methodological approaches (indicator-based approaches, surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight,
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville. Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
to enable new technological approaches and to trigger wider applications in a number of industries.
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
Nanotechnology comprises a wide range of approaches that are quite heterogeneous with regard to their subjects of investigation, possible applications and imaginable periods of realisation.
they all have their own ideas and assumptions, interpretations and examples, scientific approaches and experiences in the back of their head.
Are there approaches to let it become part of decisions which are taken already at early stages of an R&d project about its objectives,
Q 6 The probably most comprehensive overview of relevant research on and current knowledge about roadmapping, together with a critical discussion of the potential of roadmapping approaches which are applied usually to sustaining technologies to offer insights into disruptive technologies,
Especially this exercise is expected to deliver more knowledgeable and thus reliable perspectives about the interdependences between scientific and technological developments, internal and external challenges and products or applications than many other approaches.
By serving as kind of an expert-based participatory approach to the systems analysis step of a TA,
systems analysis and project management) to participate in an experiment to develop two science roadmaps using different approaches:
The science-driven approach is starting with the current research activities, its results and plans for their continuation and is aiming at opening
application-driven approach where we will be trying to seek and assess alternative (and hopefully better) pathways for one or two yet-to-be selected products
These developments have put pressure on the TA practitioners to rethink their approaches and outputs as well as to review their methods toolbox 15.
Because of the diversity of scientific and technological approaches pursued under the umbrella of dnanotechnologyt, for TA purposes some preparatory steps are needed.
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