This problem-oriented approach may have been one of the reasons for a further increase in the number of submitted abstracts and participants.
improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptiiv events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions;
This approach is in line with a claim made by another keynote speaker, Richard Hames from the Asian Foresight Institute (AFI),
He, therefore, suggested making more use of approaches that allow for exploring such levels of thinking.
and thus requires a new approach making use of integral ideas. Boden, Johnston, and Scapolo (2012) give some responses to these new demands on FTA.
This approach dixit Ollila, calls both for new structures and competencies, and for innovation policy based on a networking approach.
The papers presented in this special issue address the above issues by exploring from different angles the growing demand for forward-looking intelligence in times of crisis and uncertainty,
and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches. Tuomi sees only a limited role for the identification of weak signals in understanding the future,
and an anticipatory culture that builds on an anticipatory agency, that is, a proactive participatory approach that leads to action.
Guo, Ma, Porter and Huang propose an approach to address the highly uncertain dynamics of New & Emerging science &technologies (NESTS.
The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.
The approach proposed is applied to the development of Dye-Sensitized Solar cells (DSSCS), and shows potential to capture key technoloog
A new approach for STI policy? Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 135 9. Denning, S. 2005.
and future-oriented analysis need to move beyond evidence-based approaches. Keywords: unpredictability; ontological expansion; anticipatory systems;
In Creative Evolution, he argued that both mechanistic and teleological approaches fail to explain novelty.
In mechanistic approaches, future unfolds in a deterministic way and there is no space for truly novel forms.
In finalistic and teleological approaches, on the other hand, the future is preordained as a perfect blueprint. Both mechanistic and finalistic explanations of evolution and emergence,
A potential approach to reduce such misplaced overconfidence is to explicate both the underlying Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 747 assumptions (Rossel 2009)
The above discussion indicates that such approaches have limited only potential in future-oriented analysis. Future emerges in a periphery where robust facts
this approach cannot lead to methodologically robust predictions. Similarly, reactive what if models can only provide predictive value
and systems analyyti approaches recasting the object reality, as determined from one of the above two categories,
suggests methodological approaches that assist in capturing the essence of systems and their contexts; improves practices with conceptual modelling;
So far, FTA has stuck to familiar approaches to what it does and its intentions. Whether these can be sustained as‘fit for purpose'is another matter.
Impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making, Theme 2 FTAEVALUATION, Impact and Learning, September 28 29, Seville, 12 pp.
and various approaches and tools have been developed and evaluated (Coates et al. 2001; Harper et al. 2008; Eerola and Miles 2011.
This approach studies how expectations in science and technology are structured, how they grow, gain dramatic attention or quietly disappear,
However, according to a constructivist approach to expectations it is not possible to decide a priori whether the promises of stem cells or nanotechnology are‘true'.
and that the approach is insufficiently robust for an ex ante policy (Berkhout 2006). Eames (2006) and his colleagues have studied how the guiding vision of the hydrogen economy has lead to resistance.
‘excessive prioritizing may decrease the diversity of options that challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs'.
New approaches to governance. Futures 43, no. 3: 279 91. Coates, V.,M. Farooque, R. Klavans, K. Lapid, H. A. Linstone, C. Pistorius,
A broad range of heuristic approaches to coping with uncertainty have been developed in corporrat organisations: today, the term‘strategic foresight'is used widely to designate the activities
and refined their approaches to handling environmental uncertainty. We start examining the historical evolution and the main drivers of change in each industry of our sample firms since the early 1990s.
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
such approaches are grouped commonly under the label‘strategic foresight'(Coates, Durance, and Godet 2010; Vecchiato and Roveda 2010b.
and emphasised an‘adaptive approach'based on strategic flexibility (Hamel 2000; Mintzberg 1990. Foresight practitioners and scholars generally respond to such criticism by arguing that the role of foresight
matching the right anticipatory approach with the specific conditions of uncertainty a firm is facing in its business environment is an essential condition
and Siemens. 5 Given the inadequate analysis in the literature and the open-ended nature of our questions, we felt that this methodological approach would be the most useful for theory building (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007;
and refined their approaches to handling environmental uncertainty. Table 1. Overview of case studies. Firm Business Foresight activities started Philips Consumer electronics Early 1990s BASF Chemicals Mid-1990s Daimler Automotive Late 1970s Siemens Consumer Products,
Data analysis was highly iterative and used traditional approaches for inductive research (Eisenhardt 1989; Yin 2003.
In such a context, BASF's strategic foresight approach to investigating the evolution impact, and response options to macro drivers of change (i e. for coping with state, effect,
A model for uncertainty and strategic foresight In the prior sections, we sketched the strategic foresight approaches that emerged from our data through
Second, we provide empirical evidence on the ways major companies designed their strategic foresight approaches to handling uncertainty and supporting long-range planning (Cassingena Harper et al. 2008;
this differs from the triplebotttomline approach (Elkington 1998.**Corresponding author. Email: cristianocagnin@gmail. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 http
Developments in this approach, such as the natural value chain and value nets, bring into the scenario the requirement of aligning customers
All these approaches focus on the operational processes or value activities, and their necessary supporting procedures, to transform basic inputs into final goods or services.
but also be able to build an approach in which actors in the network participate in defining common vision and strategy.
to compose management approaches. These seek to support firms while they implement monitoring and reporting of the activities that each enterprise believes are needed to achieve an enhanced triple-bottom-line business performance.
Management approach: supporting a company's selection among the underlying possibilities of improvement so that it can shape a strategy to achieve the desired vision of sustainable development
as equals, in dialogue through an inclusive approach (Olsen 2003). Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
According to Losada (1999), high-performance teams need an inclusive dialogue approach for all stakeholders in the network.
which includes the need for an inclusive dialogue approach with all stakeholders in the network with FTA permeating all processes:
in order to steer solutions to emerging challenges through an inclusive approach as well as further experimentation and learning, helping
An alternative approach to tedious review is the development of a link analysis map coupled with an unstructured text-tagging rulebook.
but that different approaches offer different perspectives and levels of detail that can each be of benefit to the analyst or manager.
The current approach of applying information visualization tools to the analysis of the LDRD portfolio enables a comprehensive assessment of the technological development trends occurring within our IAS.
partial structural openness enabling flexibility in organisation and an anticipatory culture that builds on an anticipatory agency, that is, a proactive participatory approach that leads to action.
1) partial structural openness in the organisational structures and (2) an anticipatory culture that builds on an anticipatory agency, that is, a proactive participatory approach that leads to action.
After that, we demonstrate the‘widened'roadmapping approach by using four of VTT's foresight projects as case studies.
, that is, a proactive participatory approach leading to action. In this situation, strategies should be constantly‘on the move,
Roadmapping can thus be considered a kind of‘fractal'approach, which is scalable both temporally and substantially.
This space takes a holistic view of the organisation and approaches it simultaneeousl as a socio-technical complex and as a strategic entirety.
It was aimed to build capacities for the renewal of VTT's technological basis by stressing the development of a more service-oriented approach.
It roadmapped the potential for a novel development trajectory in an RTO (VTT) and it enhanced the organisational capacities of adopting a novel service science approach.
In addition, exploratory approaches based on, for example, modelling, simulation, or weak signal analysis could be useful in charting the visionary space.
This paper explores the systematisation of the‘Forecasstin Innovation Pathways'analytical approach through the application oftech Mining.
We have devised a 4-stage, 10-step approach to Forecast Innovation Pathways(‘FIP'.'This process integrates (a) heavily empirical‘Tech Mining'with (b) heavily expert-based multipath mapping.
This paper explores the systematisation of the FIP analytical approach through the application of Tech Mining.
Recently, Robinson (Robinson et al. 2011) has introduced the approach of‘FIP'.'That paper provides conceptual background for the endeavour of combining‘Tech Mining'(Porter
It explores the promise of this approach through its application to two illustrative innovation situations:
2. 3. Innovation system conceptual modelling A variety of approaches aim to capture the systemic processes by
Among the various approaches to capture the essentials of innovation systems, the technology delivery system(‘TDS')has demonstrated enduring value by capturing
2011) elaborate on a means to formulate a TDS for a given NEST the approach is qualitative
although one could consider augmenting the FIP approach by such techniques. 1 Two different situations can be contrasted.
with a secondary interest in the DSSC characterisation. 4. 1. Compose TDS (Step B) The TDS approach is akin to other technology innovation system approaches,
This approach uses the Subject Categories assigned to journals bywos. Accordingly for a set of publications indexed by WOS (in this case, by SCI,
This paper extends our FIP approach. Earlier papers have suggested how particular FTA techniqque can contribute to the FIP steps.
Our FIP approach, which combines qualitative and quantitative tools in the‘Profile, Project and Assess'steps,
The variability among NEST situations and possible decision needs calls for the FIP approach to be considered very flexibly.
A new approach for analyzing technological change. Technological forecasting & Social Change 74, no. 4: 413 32. Huang, L.,Z. C. Peng, Y. Guo,
Design/methodology/approach Three investigative studies using the Delphi method, scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges.
or discussion and a mission-oriented approach. Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
The approach is characterized from two aspects: 1. interdisciplinary or diversified discussion; and 2. the mission-oriented or problem-solving approach.
The main points are expert panels by cross-disciplinary theme rather than by technological discipline, the active participation of specialists in social science and humanities,
and finally 2, 900 responses were received in total. 2. 3 Scenario Three approaches were attempted for scenario building with a view to the desired future. 2. 3. 1 Scenarios by group work.
the approach employed here aims to take a comprehensive view of facets of science and technology that have the potential to make innovation happen
Naturally, the approach to address global or national challenges goes far beyond the border of research and development in a single discipline,
and a mission-oriented or problem-solving approach. Three investigative studies were carried out, employing methods of Delphi, scenario,
could be regarded as an acceptable approach to take every advantage of method employed and position potential areas of future innovation with related areas to be promoted together in the whole picture.
In this paper we demonstrate how existing approaches for transferring foresight results into strategic planning can be applied to research policy making.
We present a seven-step process that is suitable as a generic framework for defining the most appropriate approach to a given situation to support research policy making.
and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
Details of the optimum approach depend on the subject matter as well as political considerations. Key results of strategic dialogues are the development of recommendations for the BMBF as input for future research policy.
and uncertainty and conflicting approaches to entering such uncharted territory need to be observed and managed.
Methodologically, mutual gains approaches (e g. Fisher and Ury, 1991; Susskind and Movius, 2009) can already be useful at this stage in that discussions
Originality/value The paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom-up process.
Such approaches are built often into prioritisation exercises, where national governments formulate strategic responses that take into account the existing and anticipated developments in the sciences
It describes the methodological approach taken by the project in identifying research implications of global drivers and trends,
and 2. a more explicitly problem or impact-oriented approach. In the European union as in many other parts of the world research, technology and innovation policies and programmes have adopted, to a large extent,
European research must focus on the Grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches. This calls for a new deal among European institutions and Member States, in which European and national instruments are aligned well and co-operation builds transparency and trust.
and proposed the following approach: B a challenge has connectivity across two or more drivers or themes at the global level;
Second, Ireland was suggested as a smart, innovative test-bed for new approaches for dealing with global challenges due to its small size and advantages of proximity.
it was put forward that Ireland could pilot new approaches for dealing with challenging areas such as energy and healthcare. 5. Conclusions With the increasing recognition of the concept of grand challenges over recent years,
In the context of several European initiatives to promote approaches to dealing with grand challenges, this article introduces a country level case study using a foresight approach to look at the implications of global drivers and trends for Ireland,
and innovation systems can address grand challenges can be done through bottom-up approaches. Although it was designed not originally in this way
An alternative approach would be to begin by explicitly addressing the grand challenges as they have been defined broadly in several European initiatives
However, approaches and techniques used to identify priority areas for S&t&i development in various countries strongly depend on local peculiarities, socioeconomic policy objectives, the availability of natural resources, the state of the environment,
and interviews were conducted with heads of project teams. 3. Russian FS approaches 3. 1 National S&t Foresight:
(i e. to key factors of environmental degradation in Russia, the main principles of state ecological policy, the list of strategic approaches of natural environment restoration,
and the large number of players, imply the need to use integrated approaches for identifying S&t and innovation priorities for this sector.
updating the Union's approach in the context of the Lisbon strategy'',COM (2003) 112, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004a),‘Science and technology, the key to Europe's future guidelines for future European union
Design/methodology/approach Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan South korea and China,
In addition to the resource-based theory, the modern emphasis is on network approaches to industrial strategy
and the need for partnering approaches to manage these networks of buyers, suppliers and peer companies, knowing the capabilities and intents of other organization for noncompetitive purposes.
and interactions. 2. Methodological approach 2. 1 Delphi method background Delphi was developed in the 1950s by the US RAND Corporation
A Pragmatic Approach, Prentice hall, London. Herring, J. P. 1993),‘Scientific and technical intelligence: the key to R&d'',Journal of Business strategy, Vol. 15, pp. 10-12.
unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way,
Improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions.
and unknown unknowns 2. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches 3. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges 4. Joint responses to grand challenges Below we will elaborate on each of these issues. 2. Known unknowns,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 3. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches FTA is an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools (technology foresight,
Rather, it is a set of various approaches to the future, which share some assumptions,
None of these approaches is a discipline on its own, either, in a strict sense. All three components of FTA draw on the theoretical framework of several disciplines.
In more details, it is relevant to combine these two approaches when both add value.
'or adequate approach would endanger diversity and competition of approaches. Without that competition a major source of methodological innovation, a means of quality assurance,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches.
therefore, improve the FTA practice in developing its approaches, where FTA needs to demonstrate that there might be opportunities for innovation and new markets in grand challenges.
The paper by Haegeman et al. 4 explores aspects which ought to be considered to properly combine quantitative and qualitative approaches,
Both Hamarat et al. 11 and Kwakkel and Pruit 12 apply an approach to forecasting that uses an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (Exploratory Modelling
Schirrmeister and Warnke 14 contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations by proposing an original methodological approach that combines four specific features:
inductive approach, visual inspiration, assessment of coverage of dimensions of change, and prolonged divergence. Finally, Georghiou and Harper 3 set the scene against which change is considered
and influenced the practice of FTA to show that alignment of approaches, consideration of users'perspectives and divergence,
and the increasing policy demand for robust evidence for decision-making indicate that there may be a momentum for pushing FTA towards integrating qualitative (QL) and quantitative (QT) approaches,
They introduce a three-level taxonomy independent use of QL and QT approaches for their combination at a later stage
use of interfaces or‘bridges'between these two approaches aiming to feed one another with different inputs,
and full integration of QL and QT approaches and show how significant progress has been made in terms of relatively simple combinations but not more sophisticated and promising ones.
The fundamental epistemological divide between QL and QT approaches is exacerbated by the lack of mutual trust between practitioners and users of each approach due to differences in cultures
and QT approaches does lead not only to a richer analysis of possible futures, but also to a wider view on possible directions of future developments.
Based on this conviction they propose several ways to support deeper integration of QL and QT approaches:(
successful cases and good practices to build trust,(e) creation of technological and methodological interfaces between QL and QT approaches,(f) setting up of multidisciplinary teams from the very beginning of an exercise
approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking, as well as provide guidance for the identification of the features that may help the selection of the appropriate set of tools
Gao et al. 7 proposes an approach to enable technology managers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology.
EMA is an iterative model-driven approach for designing dynamic adaptive policies and it deals with uncertainties by using an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (or scenarios.
Kwakkel and Pruit 12 present three applications of EMA, using different modelling approaches, in three different technical domains and related to three different grand challenges, grounded in a system perspective.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 more experimental approaches to creating new solutions
In the USA, the approach entails mainly integrated vision-building and governance network-building coupled with avoiding centralised S&t planning.
Hence, alignment of approaches and consideration of users'perspectives, as well as divergence and the need for social shaping seem critical to advance FTA 384 C. Cagnin et al./
4 K. Haegeman, E. Marinelli, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, A. Sokolov, Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
12 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty, Technol.
Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: From combination to integration? Karel Haegeman a,, Elisabetta Marinelli b, Fabiana Scapolo c, Andrea Ricci d, Alexander Sokolov e a European commission, JRC-IPTS, Edificio Expo WTC, C/Inca
considering qualitative and participatory approaches as a second best option, to which we are compelled somehow to refer until adequate quantitative methods arise.
Section 2 looks at the potential value of using quantitative and qualitative approaches. Building on this, Section 3 proposes a taxonomy of methodological combinations at different levels of integration
and quantitative approaches in FTA In social sciences alternative methods may encourage or allow expression of different facets of knowledge or experience 2,
In FTA one of the main arguments for more use of quantitative approaches may come from policy-makers, who,
whether foresight performs better than quantitative approaches in supporting the design of effective policies. The answer is,
They also identified the scientific quality and validity of outcomes of participatory approaches as an issue of concern 18.
Both quantitative and qualitative approaches can contribute to this exploration, as explained by Eerola and Miles 22,
and on the possible combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches 22 25 the literature provides little evidence on systematic comparison
or sequential) use of qualitative and quantitative approaches In this type of FTA exercise qualitative and quantitative approaches are applied in parallel or sequentially,
but separately from each other. Typically, when different methods/tools are applied within the same project, links consist mainly of using the results of one part as an input into another part.
In some cases, the interactions between the two approaches are limited to cross-checking of assumptions and findings of the same analysis
conducted in parallel with a quantitative and a qualitative approach. Examples of this type of combined use are quite common,
Examples of current and upcoming FTA practices Output of qualitative approaches as input to quantitative approaches New indicators:
Cunningham and van der Lei 28 use such an approach for models providing support to decision-making on the selection of new technologies and discuss the issue of providing equilibrium between different groups of experts and stakeholders.
Output of quantitative approaches that feeds into qualitative FTA Use of bibliometric and patent analysis as an input for further qualitative FTA:
Thorleuchter et al. 35 demonstrate that patent-based quantitative approaches to cross-impact analysis for the identification of relationships between technologies can be used instead of,
Comparison of outcomes of qualitative and quantitative approaches Participants at the 2011 International Seville Conference on FTA raised the potential of the use of qualitative and quantitative methods for identifying
thus limiting the scale of failures (with a focus on market pull vis-à-vis the technology push approach).
of which were compared to the findings of a quantitative calculation of performance indicators. 3. 2. Use of technical and methodological interfaces that facilitate interaction A second type of exercise uses intermediaries as interfaces between the two approaches.
or disciplines that are traditionally not related to FTA and function as an integrator between qualitative and quantitative approaches.
However, to date no concrete examples of this approach could be identified, though the authors refer to Wikipedia and Google as similar examples.
A related approach is proposed by Soojung-Kim Pang 41 who suggests that tools and methods of social scanning and prediction markets could be used to improve professional forecasting and foresight in an era of complex phenomena and disruptive events with high level of uncertainties.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 Other tools and disciplines that can serve as interface to facilitate the use of qualitative and quantitative approaches and data Social network analysis:
and qualitative approaches could contribute to addressing the same problem. Further exploring synergies between FTA and strategic design could offer opportunities for more integrated use of methodologies. 7 3. 3. Full integration of qualitative and quantitative FTA A third type of exercise goes beyond the use of interfaces,
and quantitative approaches at all stages of the FTA PROCESS. In this case results of qualitative and quantitative techniques feed into each other at several stages of the process
and the (non exhaustive) review of current practices show that various attempts have been undertaken to combine quantitative and qualitative approaches.
and qualitative approaches are incompatible 50,51 and those who argue the opposite 52 57. Despite these and other longstanding attempts 58 61 for methodological combinations, the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods is still not the norm,
First, regardless of the quantitative or qualitative nature of the approach followed, a value judgement is involved in any FTA exercise.
On the other hand, qualitative approaches have been adopted for many decades (e g. scenarios) with no other involvement than that of the FTA EXPERTS.
and interpret both approaches leads to lack of trust amongst practitioners of each approach. Such lack of trust again reinforces existing epistemological barriers,
Below we propose a dual approach, combining the short-term treatment of‘symptomatic'barriers, with longer-term priorities for research and policy that address more fundamental barriers to methodological integration. 5. 1. Overcoming short-term barriers One way to extend the application of quantitative methods in FTA
Addressing practical incompatibilities between both approaches may also gradually change preferences of FTA practitioners for specific methods in favour of integrated approaches.
or integrate both approaches or identify interfaces, making use of complementary and/or contradictory features of methods.
Also in regional cohesion policy there are possibilities for blending quantitative and quantitative approaches, specifically in ex-ante (and ex-post) impact assessment. 5. 1. 2. Misconceptions In order to avoid getting stuck in the circle of epistemological barriers, lack of skills and lack of trust,
and qualitative approaches with storylines for longer ones. An exception is the International Futures Model, which can be used to examine long-term
Obviously, such endeavour would require the existence of both good performance indicators and the identification of correlations and causal relationships between the scores on the indicators and the anticipatory approaches applied.
Techniques and approaches related to building stakeholder trust can also be applied to bridge qualitative and quantitative communities.
by increasing the mutual understanding of the approaches applied. Stocktaking of good practices, and the development of frameworks that support the selection and implementation of an appropriate combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools in a given context, can enhance shared knowledge,
In this context, combining methodological approaches creates opportunities to complement the weaknesses inherent to the use of one single approach with strengths of other approaches.
approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking, as well as guidance for the 16 If forecasting is used to compare the impact of alternative policy options,
http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/Proceedings%20short%20version. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.2 P. Bazeley, Issues in mixing qualitative and quantitative approaches
Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative approaches in the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sage Publications, 2009.6 M. Wood,
a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 34 49.395 K. Haegeman et al./
A Realist Approach, Routledge, London, 1992. orig. 1984. 58 A. Baban, Reconceptualisation of the division between quantitative and qualitative researchmethods, cognition, brain, behavior, Interdiscip.
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and Innovative Approaches) and EFONET (Energy Foresight Network) and is rapporteur of the EC Working group Global Europe 2030 2050.
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