The dominant approach to analysing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time.
Such a cautionary notion should be recognized for our approach developed here also. The concept of the technology life cycle (TLC) was presented by Arthur 9 to measure technological changes.
According to this definition, Ernst 10 developed a map to illustrate TLC (Fig. 1). The dominant approach to analysing TLC with an S-curve is to observe technological performance,
Technology observers can make their R&d investment decision by using the proposed approach. The result shows that NBS is in a growth stage.
This approach to gauge a technology's growth trend provides a more robust projection. However, as mentioned in Section 1,
extrapolative technology trend approaches are not Fig. 5. An example for computing the distance between test point
optofluidic, electrical and mechanical approaches to biomolecular detection at the nanoscale, Microfluid. Nanofluid. 4 (1 2)( 2008) 33 52.33 G. A. Urban, Micro-and nanobiosensors state of the art and trends, Meas.
Policy 1 (3 4)( 2004) 1740 2816.39 C. Lee, Y. Cho, H. Seol, Y. Park, A stochastic patent citation analysis approach
State-of-the-art and new approaches Tessaleno C. Devezas Technological forecasting and Innovation theory Working group, University of Beira Interior, Covilha, Portugal Received 13 may 2004;
Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 promising approaches under way. The fourth part with conclusions closes the article,
and tools that have grown explosively in recent years related to the biosciences, bioinformatics and evolutionary approaches. Among the needs for TFA envisioned by the TFA Methods Working group we find the questioning about the validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution (Ref. 1, pp. 299:
and obstacles to be overcome to transform evolutionary approaches in useful forecasting tools. The present paper intends to present the state-of-the-art on this debate
An evolutionary approach within the framework of danthropology of techniquet is a necessary step to grasp adequately these concepts.
A very important aspect of Fisher's approach when introducing for the first time the dfitness functiont was that of natural selection acting on the population level,
All this is to say that the use of biological approaches in analyzing the evolution of technology
I want to advance the following arguments favoring an evolutionary approach to define innovation and then answering in the positive the question above about the same nature of novelties in the biological, cultural and technological realm:!
some modern approaches from complex systems theory, like self-organization, is an alternative to dbiological analogiest or Darwinism;
or in other words, the basic process of Gene Culture Coevolution, which is the most appropriate approach to develop a firmly based ETTC.
some promising approaches As already mentioned there is a relatively vast literature in verbal theories of technological and cultural evolution,
There are two possible approaches to simulating technological and/or socioeconomic systems. The systems dynamics approach, widely used in technological forecasting
since the 1950s, is btop-downq in character (so called because it views the system from above, as a whole).
The other approach forms the new sub-field of bartificial Lifeq (AL, for short) that uses so-called dsoft computingt models of complex adaptive systems (CAS) that encompasses several methods of simulation
and it is characterized best as a bbottom-upq approach. Its origin remounts to the 1970s with the emergence of gaming simulation.
Theoretically and methodologically this approach makes possible the construction of models from the level of processes that are immediately and empirically observable, namely the local interactions of single units (agents) governed by local rules.
there are some attempts following this approach that deserve to be mentioned here. It is worth to point out,
and most often used are (mentioning only some important publications for each approach): NK technology landscapes, initially proposed by Stuart Kauffman 26 and further pursued by other researchers of the Santa fe Institute, like Jose'Lobo 27 and Walter Fontana 28;
As a first step toward a research agenda for future development of TFA I propose the realization of an international seminar in this field (Evolutionary theory of technological change) bringing together specialists in evolutionary model building and digital Darwinism to discuss the existing approaches
An Evolutionary approach, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1972.23 D. T. Campbell, Blind variation and selective retention in creative thought as in other knowledge processes, Psychol.
In this paper, we propose an iterative computational model-based approach to support adaptive decision-making under deep uncertainty.
This approach combines an adaptive policy-making framework with a computational approach to generate and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques,
The proposed approach, which is very useful for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) studies, is illustrated on a policy-making case related to energy transitions.
The approach is not only appropriate for energy transitions; it is also appropriate for any long-term structural and systematic transformation characterized by dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Although the approach proposed in this paper applies equally well to long-term decision-making as to policy-making, we will, from here on,
and the case we use to illustrate the approach here relates to policy-making for stimulating energy transitions.
It is clear that there is a strong need for policy-making approaches that allow for dealing with deep uncertainty,
In this paper, we propose an iterative model-based approach for designing adaptive policies that are robust under deep uncertainty.
The approach starts from a conceptualization of the decision problem and the identification of the key uncertainties.
This approach thus explicitly uses the multiplicity of plausible futures for policy design, addressing one of the shortcomings of many traditional approaches and practices,
i e. the poor utilization of the potential to be prepared for uncertainties and surprises of future developments 18.
The systemic characteristic of the proposed approach enables a holistic and systemic exploration of the future
The proposed approach is illustrated by means of a long-term policy-making case related to the transition of energy system toward sustainability.
therefore for illustrating how this approach could be used for policy-making, and more generally, decision-making under deep uncertainty.
Section 2 introduces an adaptive policy-making framework and our Adaptive Robust Design approach. Section 3 contains the energy transition case and the illustration of our approach to it.
Section 4 includes the discussion. Concluding remarks are made in Section 5. 2. Methodology: the adaptive policy-making framework and the Adaptive Robust Design approach 2. 1. The adaptive policy-making framework Under deep uncertainty,
predictive approaches are likely to result in policies that perform poorly. In response, an alternative policy-making paradigm has emerged.
More recently, Brans et al. 34 andwalker et al. 24 developed a structured, stepwise approach for dynamic adaptation.
for adaptive policy-making to become a useful policy-making approach, it is necessary to specify in more depth how the various steps could be carried out and
to being a detailed policy-making approach. A possible qualitative approach for Fig. 1. Steps of the Adaptive Policy-making Framework.
Source: 1. 410 C. Hamarat et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 operationalizing the Adaptive Policy-making Framework is structured through workshops 35.
A possible quantitative approach for operationalizing the Adaptive Policy-making Framework is by using Exploratory Modeling and Analysis 36 38.
This computational approach, which we call the Adaptive Robust Design (ARD) approach, is proposed and illustrated below. 2. 2. The Adaptive Robust Design approach EMA is a methodology that uses computational experiments to combine plausible models
and other uncertainties in order to generate a large variety of scenarios that are used in turn to analyze complex uncertain systems,
support the development of long-term strategic policies under deep uncertainty, and test policy robustness over. EMA could also be used to develop adaptive policies under deep uncertainty
Hence, our Adaptive Robust Design (ARD) approach starts along the lines of the EMAMETHODOLOGYWITH:(1) the conceptualization of the problem,(2) the identification of uncertainties (and certainties),
and/or promising regions is crucial for this approach to be efficacious. These sub-regions of the uncertainty space represent combinations of uncertainties that either have highly negative or highly positive effects.
The approach for developing adaptive policies as presented here shares characteristics with‘Robust Decision making (RDM)' 8
our approach is more specific on the various ways in which uncertainties can be handled through policies.
Related to this, the approach focuses not solely on the negative side of the uncertainties, but also Fig. 2. Iterative Adaptive Robust Design process. 411 C. Hamarat et al./
our approach does not entail such a stance. Finally, in the exemplary paper on RDM 41, there is a need for significant computational power due to sampling techniques used,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 4. Discussion and implications for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) In this paper we proposed an iterative computational approach for designing adaptive policies that are robust
The proposed approach has been illustrated on an energy transition case. Several of our findings warrant further discussion.
and the proposed iterative Adaptive Robust Design approach can be employed for shaping and steering transitions toward more sustainable energy systems.
and assessed for their consequences. 5. Conclusions We have proposed an iterativemodel-based approach for developing adaptive policies under uncertainty.
The proposed approach, whichwe call Adaptive Robust Design, has been illustrated through a case about the structural and systemic transformation of energy generation systems toward a more sustainable future.
The iterative approach for designing robust adaptive policies helps to identify and address both vulnerabilities and opportunities,
The recent financial and economic woes have rekindled a wider interest in approaches for handling uncertainty.
A central idea in this approach is to use the availablemodels differently, instead of using them in a predictive manner
The presented approach can easily be expanded ormodified For example, we used PRIMFOR the identification of both opportunities and vulnerabilities.
an exploratory system dynamics approach, in: The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, System Dynamics Society, Seoul, South korea, 2010.416 C. Hamarat et al./
a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 34 49.44 R. Lempert, M. Collins, Managing the risk of uncertain threshold response:
and precautionary approaches, Risk Anal. 24 (2007) 1009 1026.45 E. Störmer, B. Truffer, D. Dominguez, W. Gujer, A. Herlyn, H. Hiessl, H
Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty Jan H. Kwakkel, Erik Pruyt Faculty of technology, Policy,
and Analysis (EMA) is an approach that uses computational experiments to analyze complex and uncertain issues.
which EMA is a promising approach for future oriented technology analysis (FTA). We report on three applications of EMA,
using different modeling approaches, in three different technical domains. In the first case, EMA is combined with System Dynamics (SD) to study plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity.
Future-oriented technology analysis Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Deep uncertainty System dynamics Adaptive policymaking Agent-based modeling 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is understood as an umbrella label for various approaches
and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
The various fields covered by the umbrella term FTA have at their disposal a wide variety of methods, techniques, and approaches.
A subset of these approaches relies, at least in part, on mathematical and computer models. The reason for using models might be understood in light of the rise of Newtonian mechanics
and recycling, necessitating a more exploratory approach. Causal loop diagrams are used often to communicate feedback loop structures included in System Dynamics models.
The construction of a new runway and the moving of operations are in this approach not planned for a particular moment in time,
and discussed have shown that EMA can be used to handle diverse types of uncertainties in combination with three quite distinct modeling approaches.
an exploratory system dynamics approach, in: M. H. Lee (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of The System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 27 Ventana Systems Inc, in:
Vensim DSS Reference Supplement, Ventana Systems, Inc, 2010.30 D. N. Ford, A behavioral approach to feedback loop dominance analysis, Syst.
a participatory computer assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77 (2010) 34 49.49 S. J. Heblij, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model.
and underlying theoretical premises 7. While the scenario literature makes explicit the methodological differences and similarities of various approaches,
cultural and political power as well as by technological rationalism and such indeterminism makes systemic approaches to innovation policy far from linear or predictable.
This initiative is an example of a strategic approach integrating research and innovation instruments and actors to tackle the innovation emergency related to the grand challenges the European union is facing 16, p1.
and provides a powerful approach that offers insights for academics and practitioners into how we constitute knowledge
Our understanding of the unpredictable inter-dependency of multiple forces means that more experimental approaches to creating new solutions are necessary.
and his approach to scenarios was primarily normative, i e. scenarios intended to provide a guiding vision of the future for policy-makers 46.
Each of these questions can be seen to evoke the motivation of a particular approach to scenarios.
the boundaries between approaches have become increasingly blurred by techniques that make use of both kinds of methods and information 51.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The concept of the multiple-axes method is based on one of the approaches used by Pierre Wack 52.
All the above describe approaches to futures thinking during which (potential) inputs for scenarios can be produced.
These types of approaches are typical of those used in our analysis (see Appendix 1 for an overview of the scenario cases.
An overview of our findings is summarized in the subsequent sub-sections (sub-sections 4. 1 4. 3). Each of these subsections includes a description of representation issues linked with the approach and methods used, input, process and main outcome.
Also for the third group of scenario practice, we suggest some areas of improvement with regard to legitimizing actions by adding a planning perspective via roadmaps or similar approaches.
Our use of a reflexive methodological approach with three complementary questions on policy change, supported the grouping of different approaches of developing
This integrated approach, i e. integrating different modes of futures thinking, is needed for orienting innovation along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making-Seville 28 29,september 2006, 2006.4 H. S. Becker, Scenarios: a tool of growing importance to policy analysts in government and industry, Technol.
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006, 2006.30 H. Lawson, Reflexivity, The Postmodern Predicament, Open Court, La Salle, IL, 1985.31 J
a new approach for analyzing technological change, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 74 (2007) 413 432.41 M. S. Jørgensen, Visions and visioning in foresight activities, in:
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.60 T. Webler, D. Levine, H. Rakel, D. Renn, A novel approach to reducing uncertainty the group
What are the contributions of the distinct future-oriented approaches to the development of nanotechnology governance?
the scope of future-oriented technology analysis Several distinct approaches toward anticipating the longer-term implications of nanotechnology have been taken.
but will require new approaches in accountable, anticipatory, and participatory governance, and real-time technology assessment 3. The report refers to the previous involvement of a broad variety of stakeholders
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 approaches to address environmental, health, safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
This approach started early, as evidenced by first reports in the US and Germany, which documented mutual visits and mutual screening activities in the 1990s.
We explain the approach and findings of the project and discuss in particular the implications for foresight methodology.
Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.
The foresight project comprised four distinctive phases with different methodological approaches: 1. screening for signals of changes linked to innovation in a wide range of online
In the case of scenario building the model-based approach is in widespread use in Europe,
whereas an intuitive approach without any software support has been practiced for many years in the US 17.
Both these 1 www. innovation-futures. org. 454 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 approaches can be termed inductive
Common ground of almost all the approaches is the consideration of impact and uncertainty as the main criteria for selecting the factors to be used for actually constructing the scenarios 18.
In the past years approaches have been developed to integrate disruptive events into scenario building in the form of wildcards 20.
The INFU project followed a similar approach by combining the inductive scenario building concept with a weak signal scanning activity.
This approach attempts avoiding the exclusion of situations that seem illogical or inconsistent judged by characteristics of today's system.
The aim is to explore the future of innovation in a rigorous inductive approach with a strong emphasis on open collection of phenomena
In order to test the approach (only very short textual information) respondents were asked to assess the clarity of the visions in the INFU online survey.
This can be more or less rigorous depending on the approach. In the INFU project it was sought explicitly to postpone convergence
They were subcontracted by the INFU consortium to further develop the vision of a future innovation landscape without any constraint as to the visioning approach.
each mini panel adopted their own approach to the visioning, but all of them integrated other experts'and actors'opinions and knowledge.
These findings imply newtopics and approaches to innovation policy as outlined in the INFU policy briefs.
Node of change covered Mini panel co-ordinator Visioning approach 1. Citizens role in innovation governance Anders Jacobi Danish Board of Technology,
The inductive approach of the project was successful in integrating diverse perspectives and stimulating diverse experts to participate in the process.
Furthermore the visual approach succeeded in mobilising tacit knowledge and personal, emotional assessments. As concerns the assessment of coverage of dimensions of change the frameworkwas used to discuss
A deepened understanding of the different points of view and perspectives was achieved compared to many other approaches looking for early convergence rather than emphasising divergence.
The inductive approach (focussing on signals of change at the micro level) and the extended openness for diversity are typical elements of weak signal scanning processes.
which has been proved to be a robust and resilient approach to develop alternative scenarios 32, p. 111.
Similar to approaches of participatory design 33 the story-scripts allowed peoplewith different backgrounds to imagine a situation in the future without comprehensive textual information.
In addition the appealing visualisation symbolised the creative, inspiring approach which is needed to envisage structural transformation challenging today's paradigms. 4. Conclusions As INFU was being finalised at the time of writing it is too early to assess the usefulness or even the impact of its findings in a reliable manner.
Therefore we recommend this approach of prolonged divergence to be developed further and frequently considered. As discussed above
the inductive scanning of signals with only minimal imposition of predefined categories proved an adequate approach for the INFU case.
We feel that this kind of approach holds a considerable potential for complementing established foresight methodology and that this potential is only just at the beginning of being exploited.
Accordingly, we conclude that similar approaches could serve in other foresight exercises to uncover and transcend perception filters.
In particular in the case of an inductive approach where a large number of micro-level findings need to be structured
and test the approach. Throughout the project it was recognised that people are attracted by provocative ideas and visions.
Sustainable Everyday, Scenarios of Urban Life, 2003, pp. 246 255.26 F. Jégou, S. Vincent, Co-design approaches for early phases of augmented environments, in:
Her scientific interests are innovative approaches of scenario and roadmap development. As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
government actions have been fundamentally gradualist in their approach since the1980s. Largely conceived in the light of market failure arguments that sat comfortably with the neoliberal economic paradigm,
but only slowly towards accommodating more interdisciplinary thematic approaches. As indicated above there has been a steady increase in the application of criteria of relevance and impact, particularly but not exclusively in terms of working with business.
It could be argued that a potential need for holistic cross-domain approaches could run contrary to earlier conclusion that FTA functions most effectively when it is tailored to the requirements of a field
or at a single point in time and hence variety of approach remains beneficial Alignment is a more realistic objective.
The principal epistemological divide is that between qualitative and quantitative approaches, sometimes exacerbated by lack of mutual trust 15.
and uncertainty-avoidance as the key dimensions of national governance culture and thereby critical for FTA design Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin take a less interdisciplinary approach,
Again the authors take a more empirical or applied approach, by focusing on a particular case study, the‘‘Intelligent Manufacturing Systems 2020''project.
''(IF) as an approach for bringing the future into innovation processes. For this purpose they combine Foresight with elements from market research innovation management and human-centred product design.
''Based on three case studies they suggest that FTA could help overcome some of the limitations of management approaches by setting up stakeholder dialogues
They argue that such a combined approach facilitates the shaping and monitoring of complex dynamic systems and may enable organizations to use long-term visions to effectively link strategy and operations across the whole value chain.
At the same time the authors present an approach to adapt FTA practice to the changing nature of innovation and thereby to the requirements of a specific application.
''Based on three case-studies, they conclude that a networked approach to future-oriented activities strengthens the results of FTAS
and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
and relate the wide range of different approaches to thinking about the future within an overarching framework.
1 there is evidence of the usefulness of an anticipatory systems approach. This strand of thinking considers anticipation to be a fundamental attribute of this universe
The chapters in the handbook explicitly consider the variety of approaches and contexts within each region,
for simple structuring of a text or a book and not as a deliberate analytical approach.
In line with this regional approach to contextual categorisation, Keenan and Popper have discussed regional styles of foresight for six regions 11.
In Section 2. 3, we will further examine this approach. Countries'or regions'political culture might be closely related to national governance culture.
The paper argues that this concept provides a more useful approach to the decisive context of foresight than the size or regional affiliation of a country.
However, according to Hofstede, organisational behaviour is supposed only to have a small impact on national culture. 2. 2. Hofstede's dimensions of national culture Hofstede takes a bipolar and multidimensional approach to the measurement of national culture.
First, due to the dense economic and social relationships between public and private organisations, participatory and consensus seeking approaches have more appeal to policy makers than deep, scientific expert analysis of available knowledge.
and companies in Denmark support the initiation of participatory consensus approaches 2. 4. National styles in foresight and foresight methods In a recent paper,
due to a low degree of power distance and uncertainty avoidance as well as an approach that combines market and non-market coordination mechanisms, cannot be emulated directly in countries that have a very different cultural context.
we adopted a demand-driven approach, focusing on the end-user perspective i e.,, that of policy-makers who have applied scenario analysis
At the local level, we adopted a casebaase approach to increase our understanding of the key issues involved.
and desirable futures, which was why both exploratory and predictive approaches to the future were adopted. Especially at the national level, we see that foresight methods are performed in a participatory way,
To a large extent, the added value of using the foresight method as perceived by policy-makers at the local level is processrelaated Local policy-makers indicated that they saw the inter-sectoral approach as one of the main process-related benefits
By the look of things, this inter-sectoral approach is unlikely to be taken for granted within local governmental organisations.
Nevertheless, there is a consensus among the same civil servants that there is a definite need to adopt a structured approach to long-term developments.
Da Costa et al. 25 stated that a lot of effort and commitment is needed for policymakker to switch from dealing with short-term issues towards a more long-term and holistic approach.
An Advocacy Coalition Approach, Westview Press, Boulder, USA, 1993. N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 25 14 M. Van de Kerkhof, Debating Climate change.
Overall, due to the heterogeneity of global projects, all four principles must also be implemented in keeping with a scalable design approach. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
and managerial approaches that are likely to be conducive to a successful international foresight project. Projects of this kind are usually characterised by geographical dispersion
and management approaches used for such projects. Section 2 examines the available literature on international foresight management
The approach proposed combined wide participation through online surveys and a wiki platform in combination with interviews and workshops with selected industry experts,
Such an approach would ensure communication and interaction throughout the project. Also, the idea was to involve the European commission (client) to debate all milestone results to ensure ownership and commitment,
In this way the approach proposed would link the strategic goals of the Commission with the operational aspects of the process.
These are bottom-up approaches that put more stress on interaction. On the other hand, closed and expert-driven stages are those based on top-down approaches that work from a fixed procedure.
These are often small panels of experts drawn from different stakeholder groups. C. Cagnin T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations
Taking this approach meant that participants'knew what was expected at each phase and how milestone outcomes would feed into the next steps.
to identify key elements for the joint vision Multiple approaches to develop scenarios Online elaboration of scenarios
JRCIPPT proposed a different approach than the one decided at the kickoff meeting: each selected snapshot would be developed by different teams with support from JRC-IPTS.
The approach worked very well and enabled partners to feel more secure about the work being done and its results.
This approach was key to designing a questionnaire able to elicit the innovative ideas that participants thought critical for IMS both globally and locally.
It is important to highlight that an international approach was sought throughout the exercise. The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
Such an approach allowed the consortia to unlock not only global needs for IMS with respect to RI and collaboration.
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (3)( 2011. 13 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:
a conceptual and methodological approach, in: J.-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht, R. Kemp (Eds. Reflexive governance For Sustainable development, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2006, http://www. eelggarenvironment. com/Bookentry contents. lasso?
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