a core activity in FTA, can be elicited (Section 6) in a way that supports quantitative expression: this relates to the three forms of ignorance referred to.
FTA has a strong role to play in businesses achieving successful continuity through offensive and defensive activities.
Again particular kinds of expertise are needed based on the three components of foresight that run throughout the business's activities,
this role for FTA is discussed further in the next section. 3. Characteristics of FTA as an umbrella activity FTA focuses on the need and potential to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
His research activity has focused upon long-term policy and strategy making with particular emphasis upon Foresight methodologies and their implementation in science, technology and social fields.
since decisions and activities are framed by intentions and ideas about a future situation. People act not only in reaction to the past (socialisattion or present (roles in a social structure),
today, the term‘strategic foresight'is used widely to designate the activities and processes that assist decision-makers in the task of charting the company's future course of action (Coates, Durance, and Godet 2010;
when managers lack accurate information Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 785 about organisations, activities,
Strategic foresight activities at BASF started in the mid-1990s, when the company realised that the chemical industry was going through major structural changes
Foresight and decision-making Decision-makers at BASF seamlessly embedded foresight activities in the strategy formulation process. Scenarios are combined usually with the formulation and evaluation of strategic options,
and customer needs in a timely manner and at figuring out their implicattion for the activities of the value chain and the rise of new players.
which fosters venture activities within the company and provides financial support to newsubsidiary companies and start-ups.
Most business groups also have their own venture activity groups, which cooperate in the experimentation and development of innovative ideas, newproduct concepts, and prototypes.
this regards the impact of drivers of change on the identity of the main activities of the value chain and the main components of the business (micro) environment, that is, rivals, suppliers, customers, substitute products,
and what the main activities of the value chain will be. The chemical and automotive businesses, on the one hand,
these drivers of change did not affect either the identity of these components or the identity of the main activities of value chain of the chemical or the automotive business. 6 Over the last two decades,
Daimler's managers could be quite confident as well of the main activities of the value chain for example, assembly of components and production and distribution of cars and the main markets industrialised and emerging countries.
What are the main activities of the value chain? Who is in the business? How can a firm create
and activities of the value chain. Discontiinuou drivers of change are typically disruptive technologies (Christensen 1997) and new customer needs stemming from emerging or growing industries.
which help managers to figure out the (new) identity of the main components of the business micro environment and the new activities (and products and services) of the value chain.
and also suppliers in the decision-making process and the operational procedures needed to carry out the necessary value activities to achieve the ultimate goal of satisfying the end-customer.
All these approaches focus on the operational processes or value activities, and their necessary supporting procedures, to transform basic inputs into final goods or services.
Moreover, the value activities in the network must align and integrate operational processes, as in a traditional value chain,
which activities play a key role in enabling businesses to access new sources of competitive advantage
and should be considered as value activities of a network and what roles can FTA play as well as how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability?
In Section 4, the value-creating activities managed across a business network are linked to the ability of a network to self-organise:
it must also be able to anticipate and respond to transforming disruptive change. The proposed management framework and the roles that FTA can play are introduced then comparing networks to complex sympoietic systems.
The processes and activities embrace the necessity for internal and externna communication of social and ethical actions;
and reporting of the activities that each enterprise believes are needed to achieve an enhanced triple-bottom-line business performance.
and how these are translated into activities able to shape specific actions according to its context in individual,
the actions or behaviours needed to promote the translation of the principles embedded in the vision into broad activities that,
a path towards networks'sustainable development 3. 1. Network value activities Traditionally, in a network, value activities are the building blocks by
value chain activities are divided into primary activitiie (physical creation of a product) and support activities (support the interrelationships among primary activities).
In a nontraditional network, value activities remain undivided since they all leverage and support each other:
they need to be integrated to be considered as‘primary'for the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
to enable business networks 801 Figure 1. Business sustainability activities model. Source: Cagnin (2005. development and delivery of responsible products and services across the network throughout their life cycle.
The heart of a network becomes interaction alignment and integration of all operatiion and their supporting activities across products and services among all its actors.
its operatiiona activities must be integrated throughout its network and in alignment with a common strategy across the network.
and its network of relationships interact across the network to align value-creating activities. The common and complementary elements between the needs of value creation
These are needed the activities for the creation of value in sustainable development (Cagnin 2005. Appendix 3 summarrise the main characteristics of these value activities.
Figure 1 depicts the business's Activities Model and shows the main value-creating activities that a business needs to sustain it in the long term.
These activities require capabilities that are intrinsically complex and interdependent: these must be learnt and practised simultaneously across the network.
Theactivities Model (Figure 1) is based on the quantum leaps model devised by Shelton (1997), which describes the necessary capabilities needed to transform our organisations
and ourselves to achieve quantum organisations. These are assumed to be critical to a business's sustainable Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 802 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge development,
Moreover, it should link the activities that need to be performed at each stage to build an organisation's ability to know itself (how things are done in the present),
how the network value activities evolve in time For a company, sustainable development is a major challenge. The limited notion of what constituute‘sustainable development'is itself a riddle that any company faces.
Businesses organise themselves to achieve these ends through activities under the rubric FTA but these are not an all-important part
The aim of the Maturity Model is to shape a possible business path towards sustainable developmment outlining how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability.
Maturity levels 3-Managed with no 4-Excellence at corproate 5-High-performance Value activity 1-Ad hoc 2-Planned in isolation integration level sustainability net Strategy-Overhead,
focus on processes and activities planning-Change factors as processes and activities interdependence-Decision based on risk/reward-Integration starts;
focus on planning and controlling multiple activities-Shared vision, individual awareness and leadership exist-Positive emotions lead to creativity
strategies and activities aligned and integrated across the net-Collaborative innovation and continuous sustainability performance improvement system,
and D. Loveridge Table 3. Continued) Maturity levels 3-Managed with no 4-Excellence at corproate 5-High-performance Value activity 1-Ad hoc 2-Planned in isolation integration
individual abilities-Policies support practicces aim to reduce impacts with better use of materials and natural resources-Structured processes/activities-Firm-wide understandiin of activities, roles and responsibilities-Idea
for integration/alignment-Streamlined processes/activities Autonomous, flexible and integrated processess/activites; use of renewable energy sources and fewer natural resources-Processes/activities/values aligned across the net;
functional silos removed (information flow)- Systemic processes/systems Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
according to the network's value activities (Figure 1). In this context, it is worth highlighting Appendix 5,
and shows the necessary activities and the interrelationships that need to be managed systemically to shape business sustainability.
and D. Loveridge Appendix 3. Network value activities Value activities Main characteristics Partnerships It is in the core of CSR
Hence, values are seen as a strategic tool to align all activities along the network and to give the direction as to where the firm will go with
Sustain the business A It is developed a process by every day activities. It depends of being able to meet everything that was defined in the earlier plan stage
and sample analyses and validation activities associated with the mapping of Sandia's LDRD IAS. 2. Project plan The original plan associated with this assessment activity consisted of several steps,
After completion of the benchmarking activity with Sandia-specific visualizations a second set of visualizations was created to include data on all U s. Department of energy (DOE)- funded R&d activities related to the IAS.
Q was to place Sandia's IA activities within a broader context, thus allowing for the identification of new opportunities by semantic association with activities outside Sandia.
These visualizations were presented also to IA leaders. Copies of the data, visuals, and navigation tools were provided also to IA leaders to allow them to explore the data independently. 3. Process,
were created for this activity. The first can be described as a landscape map, which is suited particularly to looking for patterns and trends in large data sets.
The assessment was used to assist the IA leads in portfolio management activities. The visualization contained very detailed (and thus proprietary) information,
whose predominant activities are to proviid research and development, technology, and innovation services to enterprises, governments, and other clients.
the innovation activity, and indeed the entire activity field of organisations, has been conceptualised as relational practices, that is,
as activities realised in relation to impulses stemming from users, other organisations, and wider currents at the level of the strategic landscape.
For example, Smits and Kuhlmann (2004,11) argue that innovation is a systemic activity that‘involves a variety of actions within the system,
of which the innovating organisation or innovator forms part'.'In addition, Geels (2004,900) uses the term‘socio-technical system'to describe the systemic interaction that encompasses production, diffusion,
and as a process methodology. 1 Roadmapping combines different modes of knowledge with specific activity layers (Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
and outside the organisation Capacities for aligning development activities with societal drivers Building a market vision Capacities for market creation or entering into existing markets as a novel player Identification of novel
and securing the continuation of the developmental activities in the field. The temporal span of the roadmap was about 10 years, until the 2020s.
Toward an activity theoretical reconceptualization. Journal of Education and Work 14, no. 1: 133 56.
and national policy-makers as they formulate infrastructures to encourage innovation. 2. Background 2. 1. Tech Mining and FTAS Bibliometrics counting activity levels and identifying patterns in R&d bibliographic records,
Tech Mining (Porter and Cunningham 2005) is our shorthand for such activities.‘‘Research profiling'(Porter, Kongthon,
We search for R&d activity in suitable‘ST&I'databases and profile that activity and the associated actors from these data (Steps C and D). Many analytical tools can serve to profile R&d,
including bibliometric analyses, social netwoor analyses, and trend analyses. We adapt these to facilitate our study as a function of the state of development of NESTS.
After a stage of open brainstorming workshop activities, it is desirable to elicit ideas from the experts on‘issues'.
Boolean term search approach (Porter et al. 2007) to identify DSSCRELLATE activity in four databases: Web of Science (WOS), EI Compendex, Derwent World Patent Index (DWPI), and Factiva.
Review of the TDS by several knowledgeable persons helped tune this simple conceptualisation. 4. 2. Profile R&d (Step C) This activity draws heavily on bibliometric
We begin by showing trends based on the annual activity from each database in Figure 3. It is clear that the research publications drawn from the SCI
After 2008, the Factiva records suddenly climb quicker than the activity in the other databases does.
4. 3. Profile innovation actors and activities (Step D) Since 2009, WOS has been providing a funding acknowledgement field as it indexes publications.
but much reduced activity recently; several institutions have over 3000 citations: the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science & Technology (AIST Japan), Uppsala University (Sweden),
Determinants and consequences of university spinoff activity: A conceptual framework. The Journal of Technology transfer 33, no. 6: 653 66.
Currently activities aim to discuss innovations that have the potential to change society for the better.
it is a crucial element in ensuring that such activities have maximum impact. Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
Research policy cannot limit itself to the continued support of established activities and trend lines. Rather, it needs to anticipate future opportunities as well as future societal needs.
and subsequent transfer activities have to be constructed as dialogue processes involving all relevant stakeholders. With his summary of the key results of foresight activities in Germany in the early part of the last decade, he also illustrates once more their wide-ranging and interdisciplinary nature and hence the need for an active and carefully designed transfer to research policy making.
In addition, a number of other activities are oriented towards identifying and analyzing areas for future research and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
and impact of these activities on the innovation system strategic dialogues are used, both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their translation into research policy and the creation of research infrastructure.
foresight is more radical than day-to-day activities of Figure 1 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 23 research policy makers,
Furthermore, relevant activities in the field are mapped, such as pilot projects, existing networks and stakeholders in an international context.
In this step, the involvement of outside experts is purely a fact-finding activity. The experts here are not necessarily stakeholders in the strategic dialogue but primarily sources of information.
Survey of earlier national research policy Where funding programs are considered as an element of future research policy it is important to gain an overview of previous funding activities in relevant subject areas as well as lessons learnt.
Hence, step 5 of a PAGE 24 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 strategic dialog might be a survey of earlier national funding activities and a gap analysis between those activities and the potential support
politics and society and to develop recommendations for further supporting activities. The size of such workshops ranges from 30 to 80 participants. 4. 7 Step 7:
Scenarios and exploration in depth Given that future-looking activities of the BMBF often span time periods of ten to 20 years it can be fruitful to engage all stakeholders in building normative and/or exploratory scenarios as a guide and framework
Often workshop events have helped to initialize short-and long-term cooperation activities between parties involved. B Conflicts between stakeholders have been resolved with proven techniques such as the Mutual Gains approach applied by a facilitator.
To transfer the results of the focus area‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0''into activities, a holistic view across a complex landscape of relevant stakeholders, including relevant disciplines as well as players across the value chain is required.
and their commitment to future activities; B consideration of the existing structure of departments within the Ministry as well as known difficulties in initiating activities across departments;
B ensuring relevance and a joint understanding through appropriate presentation and transfer of results from Foresight and related strategy processes;
and B compatibility with existing strategic planning activities in individual units within the BMBF. 6. Conclusions Strategic dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the transfer of results from strategic processes such as Foresight into research policy making.
and implement their activities. Foresight initiatives play an important role in this process by challenging the research
‘‘Innovation priorities''in the above study were considered to be major activities in the Russian natural resources sector's management system that would contribute to achieving the RF S&t priorities and solving the main problems in the area.
Ashton and Klavans (1997) also defined three basic objectives for CTI activities: 1. to provide early warning of external technical developments
and technology (S&t) activities in time to permit appropriate responses; and 3. to anticipate and understand S&t-related shifts or trends in the competitive environment as a preparation for organizational planning and strategic development.
Grupp, H. and Linstone, H. A. 1999),‘National technology foresight activities around the globe: resurrection and new paradigms'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60 No. 1, pp. 85-94.
and orchestration of activities 3. Policy-makers are concerned naturally with changes and surprises with disruptive impacts on their domains.
Technology assessment activities part of the FTA family can also influence technological trajectories. Two papers from the same school Hamarat et al. 11 and Kwakkel and Pruit 12 address the need for novel methods and techniques to support adaptive policy-making.
In both countries, public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.
and moving from forecasting activities and expert-driven identification processes towards the inclusion of expertise from a broader range of disciplines, a wider range of stakeholders and sometimes also the knowledge of lay people.
They outline that the main exception to mainstream practice has been the emergence of horizon scanning activities.
This has doomed such activities to a relatively small part of the picture of FTA practice. Moreover, it happens
when policy-makers need to know about new and unforeseen challenges that could disrupt their activities.
His research activity has been focused mostly upon long-term policy and strategy making with particular emphasis upon foresight methodologies and their implementation in socioeconomic and technological fields at the supranational, national, regional and sectoral levels. 385 C. Cagnin et al./
the authors believe that such deep integration of methods can potentially enhance both the analytical depth and the policy impact of fta activities.
Change 78 (2011) 274 282.34 H. M. Järvanpää, S. J. Mäkinen, M. Seppänen, Patent and publishing activity sequence over a technology's life cycle, Technol.
He contributed to several ex-ante and ex-post Impact assessment studies of FP programmes and activities in the fields of Environment, Bio-based economy and Socioeconomic sciences and humanities.
Usually, patent application activity is tracked as a TLC indicator for the S-curve analysis 10,12, 13.
which are key activities of FTA. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Future-oriented technology analysis Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Deep uncertainty System dynamics Adaptive policymaking Agent-based modeling 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is understood as an umbrella label for various approaches
Innovation is invariably a cumulative, collaborative activity in which ideas are shared, tested, refined, developed and applied 32.
the success of innovation is to a great extent dependent upon the activities and abilities of individuals who enthusiastically support it. 6. Conclusions In this paper we analyzed
and role of FTA where the focus is not on individual activities, but rather on the longer-term interplay between the organizational settings in both countries and the future-oriented nanotechnology analysis. In countries such as the US and Germany, where FTA on nanotechnology were already underway in the late 1980s,
what main actors were involved in the future-oriented activities conducted prior to and after the establishment of national nanotechnology programs.
The first set of national activities the paper analyzes is from the US, where FTA was used to create visionary concepts
The second set of national activities the paper analyzes is from Germany, where FTA was used mainly to shape
In both countries, the public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.
anticipatory activities included a wide range of stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and NGOS, as well as independent parties cf. 23.
Examples of these participatory and future-oriented activities include consensus conferences in the US 24 and a consumer conference in Germany 25.
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 As FTA is understood commonly as an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action,
especially in science, technology and innovation policy-making, 28 the above mentioned activities can all be considered as FTA.
In addition, the term also encompasses new participatory types of future-oriented nanotechnology-related studies and activities, such as dialogues on ethical, legal and social aspects cf. 31.
national-level technology foresight studies are seen not as a prominent activity in the science and technology landscape of the United states. The U s. stands virtually alone in specifically avoiding centralized S&t planning
even though advanced forward-looking activities are used 32. In contrast to the US, the German government has launched several technology foresight processes in the last decade 33,34.
the technology assessment activities and the vision building process served to link disperse organizations and research fields
as the activities of the working group on nanotechnology were linked directly with the preparation of the NNI.
Both concepts rely on experiences derived from participatory activities. The vision report states that during the next decade
but rather a coordination of future-oriented activities that allowed the departments involved to develop their own individual agendas
The term technology foresight has not been used with regard to future-oriented activities in nanotechnology, but considering the nano-related FTA of the last fifteen years,
the NNI uses advanced strategic planning methods and tools and acts as a kind of umbrella organization for pooling heterogeneous future-oriented activities.
the activities under the umbrella of the National science and Technology Council Subcommittee were per se closely policy-related and, in the last decade,
included prospective studies of long-term opportunities as well as participatory activities such as building networks to access disparate sources of knowledge and to legitimate the governance of nanotechnology.
The nanotechnology related activities of BMBF, the main public agency in Germany in charge of promoting pre-commercial research and development,
and focused in the early stages on technology analysis, market analyses and technology assessment activities. The BMBF commissions the Association of German Engineers Technology Center (VDI-TZ), a subsidiary company of the Association of German Engineers (VDI),
which conducted the activities, the aim of these forecasting exercises was to identify new and promising fields for research funding,
and to prepare these issues for funding activities 48. The results of the forecasting exercises were published in technology analyses,
these early monitoring and forecasting activities were followed by an initiative of the BMBF to establish the first six national nanotechnology competence centers with annual funding.
and science. 7 These early network activities did not involve other ministries or government agencies, as opposed to the US case.
One of the recommendations published in the Nanokommission's final report in 2011 is that the German federal government should establish a national cross-departmental internet platform providing information on developments and activities in the field of nanotechnologies 51.
The activities were directed strategically to building on existing areas of strength such as in the automotive industry and microelectronics.
and research to pool the distributed strategic knowledge gained from different activities such as technology intelligence, parliamentary technology assessment, technology monitoring and dialogue processes.
FTA in the governance of nanotechnology started with forecasting activities and expert-driven identification processes in which expertise was limited by involving actors exclusively from government,
which documented mutual visits and mutual screening activities in the 1990s. The US Interagency Working group on Nanoscience, Engineering and Technology (IWGN) published a worldwide study on Nanostructure Science and Technology in 1999.
and Russia to gather additional information on activities in those countries 5. In Germany, the report on the first forecast activities also documented international activities,
analyzing nanotechnology related activities in the US 6 . While the US NNI continued this international screening
the BMBF did not report similar activities. 4. 3. Governance structures Beside many parallel developments in the US and Germany,
making it unclear to what degree these activities are related policy. Unlike in the US, the BMBF does not include the input from the social sciences in setting a future agenda.
The forward-looking activities of the US nanotechnology initiative have had a major impact on the future orientation within the US political realm with regard to nanotechnology governance
These early activities brought together the formerly unconnected fields of nanoscale science and engineering under a broad definition of nanotechnology and served as the foundation in developing long-term R&d visions and strategies.
Nonetheless, these activities contributed to forming the field and shaping the expectations. In both countries, early FTA envisioned innovative future nanotechnologies
While early FTA involved experts almost exclusively fromscience and industry and governmental bodies, current future-oriented activities involve at least in the US experts from social science and humanities.
Future oriented activities that are linked not directly with decision making in policy such as public engagement activities organized by researchers in the US
or dialogues organized by the German Nanokomission were involving increasingly other stakeholders such as non-governmental organizations and citizens.
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