Early models saw innovation processes as a linear sequence of functional activities distinguishing only between technology push
The INFU project followed a similar approach by combining the inductive scenario building concept with a weak signal scanning activity.
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants
Company profit as the main driver of innovation activity is being complemented. Solving social problems become an important driving force to innovate for both companies and individuals.
Creativity may become a key aspect in all professional activities. Formation of identities and social relations as well as everyday creativity may increasingly be recognised as core aspects of innovation.
the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
of the conference series and foresight as the label for most of the activities it presents.
More recent attempts to impose a new collective term of‘forward-looking activities'remain largely a bureaucratic construct within the European commission.
such policies have veered generally away from activity that could be perceived as near-to-market or
the former largely restricted to collaborative grants under the argument that firms needed an incentive to work together on pre-competitive activities,
while new activity is imposed on the top. It is interesting to speculate whether the luxury of this accumulation can survive the cold economic winds that are causing many European Governments to cut spending
the European research Council (ERC) has seen fit to launch an activity targeted at exploitation of results.
and because of the very large and not clearly defined scope of activities that would be drawn under such an umbrella.
At a practical level the shifts make it less clear where the activity should be situated who has ownership of the problems
Within the activity itself strategic knowledge is distributed across organisations, which means that an FTA ACTIVITY can end up as a proxy for coordinated views that would normally rest within agencies.
policymakers would really like to know about new and unforeseen challenges that could disrupt their activities.
and the establishment by the European commission of a new advisory body, the European Forum for Forward Looking Activities (EFFLA) which includes in its remit the identification of challenges
and synthesise findings from forward-looking activities. It is mandated to do this in a form directly useable for policymakers,
''Based on three case-studies, they conclude that a networked approach to future-oriented activities strengthens the results of FTAS
and experimenting as it attempts to engage in anticipatory activities in a complex emergent reality.
Foresight projects have often been carried out as stand-alone activities and have been partly decoupled from the processes into which the results of the foresight must feed.
The key point of view here is that history matters in the sense that foresight activities are inspired often by earlier activities in other countries.
In this study, technology foresight was defined as‘‘dialogue activities and analyses of long-term developments in science, technology, economy and society with the aim of identifying technologies which may have economical and/or societal significance''29.
References 1 EFP,‘‘Foresight and forward-looking activities exploring new european perspectives,''summary of major findings, in:
Different insights are related to different activities in the policy cycle i e.,, agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making, implementation, and evaluation.
Especially at the level of city councils, it is hard to find examples of strategic policy activities using scenario analysis methods,
The two studies of national foresight activities indicate that there is room for improvement especially when it comes to connecting national foresight studies to decision-making. 3. 5
and connecting to other activities, such as ongoing planning, which are already in place. Despite the similarities between the national and the local level, it is doubtful
This principle ensures that participants position the foresight exercise and their own activities in a global context.
All these activities produced a total of 754 research issues to be explored further and refined 25.
Project partners were engaged throughout this activity with support from JRC-IPTS. The methodology employed consisted of nine main phases:
1. Mapping activity to identify and refine KAT dimensions, but most importantly to scan dimensions used in previous scenario and roadmapping projects;
The final IMS2020 Joint Vision is based on inputs from the mapping activity the first online survey, industrial workshops,
a number of dissemination activities have taken place, most notably:(i) promotion through flyers, the project's website and marketing material distributed in both academic conferences and policy debates;(
how to link strategic objectives with the operational activities to be performed; ways of ensuring engagement by a diversity of stakeholders;
The framework10 used in the initial discussions (Fig. 1) was critical to link the strategic objectives of the project to the operational activities.
Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation
it would be a natural activity to move a step further in order to outline what resources would need to be developed mobilised
and interrelate regional and national level activities, as done in 28, could have been justified in the IMS2020 project to gain more insight on the developments of different systems. 10 The mentioned framework has been used by JRC-IPTS in a number of projects
Weekly Skype calls were useful to take stock of performed activities and to define who would be responsible for taking action based on a common understanding of
face-to-face meetings or dissemination activities would take place. These could happen either before or after a planned event.
groupwork Volunteering (for specific activities) Informal EU Commission Client Formal Face-to-face meetings, website, dissemination activities Industry Different economic sectors representing IMS region,
including roadmapping group Formal Interviews, mutual learning workshops, online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal Online surveys, wiki platform, website
, dissemination activities Research Partners'databases Formal Online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal C. Cagnin,
T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 36 devoted to the joint selection of variables to be used
Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape
These depend on strategies requiring coordination of research activities from different research actors, and enabling of interactions with companies in creating
the future sponsorship of FTAACTIVITIES (and certainly their wider diffusion and expansion) is likely to bemore difficult and places the whole activity under threat.
and activities likely to lead to the attainment of both lower and higher level system goals,
and a continuing reassessment of relationships with the private sector and the innovation-related Knowledge Economy agenda (e g. through third stream activities.
In his paper Havas suggests a methodological approach outlining how prospective activities can be conducted on the higher-education sector.
Amongst the projects she was leading there were targeted activities supporting mutual learning on Foresight among practitioners
Development and Innovation (RDI) activities. Similarly, Participatory Innovation sought to empower people and to create an environment for user innovation in a broad sense 13.
which occupies an important place in people's media use and leisure activities. The starting point for this study was the observation that this very popular medium has been the subject of rapid technological evolution over the last few years.
and the daily activities of this persona are structured not by what is shown on TV. TV is merely a means to get informed
7. Furthermore there is evidence that firms'efforts are concentrated currently on activities targeted at strategy design,
Driving Value Using Activity-Based Budgeting, John Wiley & Sons, New york, 2004.39 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.),
2) Do activities that could be named‘networked foresight'exist?(3) How are these activities currently conducted?
We explore these questions by describing three cases with different settings, by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)
Moreover, activities observable in the three cases are Table 1 Generations of innovation management and futures research (based on van der Duin 3
while the EIT ICT Labs case made it possible to observe futures research activities in a large network of around 65 partner organizations.
which function as a kind of‘Leitmotiv'for all innovation-related activities. It is fed by the organization's internal ambitions for the future
At the same time, changes in the image of the future for example, due to an adapted vision as a result of leadership activities can mean that the transition path has to be adapted
three different levels are used (visualized as gray-shading) for each component of the CIM to visualize their preference concerning openness and network orientation of futures research activities.
They merely reflect the state of each case concerning the planned and actual network orientation concerning futures research activities. 3. 2. 3. Categorizing the networked foresight activities The implementation of the identified networked foresight activities is structured according to the three roles of foresight
Additionally, we capture the type of the activity (longteer program, time-limited projects, nonrecurring activity)
and evaluate the scope of the activities, i e.,, contributors and beneficiaries of the activities (open network, closed network, contract-based partnerships or single organizations.
4. Cases: Rijkswaterstaat, EICT, EIT ICT Labs In the following section three cases are presented. In each case a brief introduction is followed by a description according to the components of the CIM. 4. 1. Case 1:
Rijkswaterstaat WINN Rijkswaterstaat (RWS, part of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment) is responsible for the management and implementation of the Dutch road and water infrastructure.
The transition from RWS-internal activities to open innovation projects and programs was facilitated through the integration of Deltares in 2007.4.1.3.
and WINN were mostly singular activities that focused on solutions for the water and landscape management.
The future of WINN itself was addressed not within these activities (Table 3). 4. 2. Case 2:
zur Fo rderung der angewandten Forschung e. V. Fhg), Technische Universita t Berlin (TUB) and Siemens AG (SAG) decided to pool their research and development activities in the area of information
and the external trend that ICT is becoming increasingly important in all business areas provided the foundation for this vision. 4. 2. 2. Process model The activities of the EICT itself can be interpreted as an innovation process model.
Activity Short description Type 1. 1 Inspirational workshop Identified future‘themes'for inspiration and to structure innovation processes for WINN Singular activity 1. 2 Business modeling Addressed
strategic positioning of Rijkswaterstaat vis-a vis other organizations and decision making about exploitation of inventions Singular activity 1. 3 Business case analyses Used for sensibility analyses
and potential new products and services within WINN Singular activity 1. 4 Series of future workshops Determined relevant societal developments and innovation needs that the activities originating from WINN give rise to Project 5 In 2008
'which facilitates the activities and support of EICT toward its partners and speeds up the creation of new innovation activities. 4. 2. 3. Transition path The foundation of EICT represented a major step for all involved
Here, collaborative futures research activities supported by EICT make it possible to identify risks and opportunities in the very early stages of product development (see below).(
The integration of new partners with additional competences, ideas and insights broaden the innovation potential of the network. 4. 2. 5. Networked foresight activities Futures research activities are conducted in particular within the innovation management unit of EICT.
The futures research activities at EICT have in common that they are applied usually on a project basis. Projects are set up with explicit definitions of time, scope and desired results.
Thus, the futures research activities within EICT usually address thematic issues in various industries. The future of the partners involved
Activity Short description Type 2. 1 Future studies Continuously identify future trends in an industry based on Delphi
and ideas in guided workshops Singular activity 2. 5 Business modeling Generates, plans and evaluates new business modeling concepts Singular activity 2. 6 Business case analysis Provide revenue,
cost and profit projections in predefined cases to establish a basis of decision-making Project 2. 7 Networking on demand Identifies matching knowledge carriers in the partner network on demand,
pool project partners for new projects, initiate project consortia Singular activity P. van der Duin et al./
Six nodes, in Berlin, Paris, Eindhoven, Stockholm, Helsinki and Trento, operate physical co-location centers (CLCS) where most of the KIC activities are carried out 54.
Activities center around and integrate the three fields education, research and business creation. Heger & Bub provide an in depth introduction to the EIT ICT Labs in 55.4.3.1.
1) Carrier activities, which are funded mostly co projects (i e.,, with external funding) with a thematic orientation, for example, the Software Campus as an instrument to strengthen
2) Innovation catalysts that aim at supporting existing activities methodological. They receive direct funding from the EIT ICT Labs
and can be booked'to support the carrier activities. Until 2010, the selection of innovation activities was made by the management team in various workshops based on proposals that were submitted by the partner organizations.
Since then, proposals for future activities have to meet a set of predefined criteria and are evaluated
Several collaborative instruments were established to support the identification and selection of activities for the future of the network, e g.,
An IT platform serves as the basis for this activity. It allows people to post, comment,
The best-practice benchmarking activity aims at identifying best practices for (1) disseminating innovations among the partners,
and (4) recommending practices to improve the activities within the network. A project team with members from education, research and industry and from several partner organizations identifies
Effectiveness and efficiency are addressed by several activities in the network: technology transfer activities, so-called spearhead research activities,
and an annual selection process (quality assurance) add to the aforementioned foresight instruments innovation radar and best-practice benchmarking.
and are expected in turn to actively contribute to the activities. Clearly observable from the partners'actions and behavior within the network is their willingness to cooperate within the network.
Activity Short description Type 3. 1 Action lines Bundle R&d activities in preselected thematic fields, aim to bring forward significant improvements
and drawing research attention toward activities within these fields Program 3. 2 Experience and living labs Let researchers
performance and conformance Projects 3. 4 Spearhead Research grants additional research funds to facilitate collaborative research activities in high-potential topics Projects 3. 5 Business modeling Supports
in yet underexplored business fields Project, singular activity 3. 6 Technology transfer program Increases the transfer activities from academia to business by detecting, stimulating
and network orientation. 5. 1. 1. Networked foresight activities Foresight activities were limited to workshops, moderated discussions and other meetings either as stand-alone events or as series of events (activity 1. 4). Predominantly,
and assess and reposition the activities in place for water management. Thus, the strategist role as defined by Rohrbeck
the activities were aiming at identifying new opportunities and needs, i e.,, filling the initiator role as well.
Within WINN foresight activities were primarily singular activities, either with the contract partners Rijkswaterstaat and Deltares or with selected participants.
and recurring activities. This way cohesion within the network and quality of results could be increased further. 5. 2. Case 2:
Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 1. 1 Inspirational workshops (&) & Contract partners 1. 2 Business modeling
& (&) Contract partners 1. 4 Series of future workshops & (&) Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
(&)= secondary roles of the activity. Fig. 3. Visualization of the EICT concerning openness and network orientation. 8 During the revision of this article a regular strategy meeting took place
and adjusting of the network's activities. However, informal talks with network members showed that the transition toward an open innovation network is threatened potentially by inertia, rigid mindsets and a fear of opportunism.
and frequent reporting duties equal to those of significantly larger projects subsidized in the European Framework Programs (FPS) not only significantly slow down the network's activities,
All activities use sources from the within network; five leverage additional information from outside organizations and one seeks to integrate end-users As well as can be expected,
or those partners of the network that participate in the activity. In contrast, strategic guidance, the assessment and repositioning of the innovation portfolio and vision creation are limited mostly to the network itself.
Based on the CIM evaluation and the futures research activity analysis the following conclusions can be drawn for the EIT ICT Labs:
1. Within the EIT ICT Labs foresight that utilizes the network on various levels is practiced. 2. Beneficiaries of these activities are the network partners and the network itself.
Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 2. 1 Future studies & (&) Open (organizations and end-users) 2. 2 Business field exploration
& (&) Contract partners 2. 7 Networking on demand & Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
(&)= secondary roles of the activity. P. van der Duin et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 74 3. Some networked foresight activities, e g.,
when it comes to external developments. 4. Some activities, e g.,, the action lines (thematic fields) and the selection process, could be applied further to guide the transition path toward an open network that generates excellent research
Additionally, the shape of the boxes represents the type of activity in the sense of long-term program,
and nonrecurring, singular activity. When comparing the three cases based on the earlier descriptions and analyses and the illustration above the following observations can be made.
The emphasis of WINN activities is on the strategist role of foresight: first, to assess
The former are those activities that are conducted predominantly between the contract partners RWS and Deltares, the latter within the larger, loosely coupled network of experts.
Thus, WINN can be described as a bundle of conventional foresight activities to consolidate knowledge, to identify new ideas
In the sense of this article the WINN activities can be characterized as foresight supported by a loosely linked network.
The foresight activities are mostly mid-to short-term activities within Table 8 The scope of the foresight activities in the EIT ICT Labs
Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 3. 1 Action lines (&) & Closed network 3. 2 Experience and living labs & (&) Open
3. 9 Best-practice benchmarking & Open (organizations) 3. 10 Business developer program & (&) Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
(&)= secondary roles of the activity. Fig. 4. Visualization of the EIT ICT Labs concerning openness and networks for futures research activities.
P. van der Duin et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 75 the network of constant network partners or on a contractual basis. The strategic role of foresight for the corporate strategy of the partners is the focus of attention.
The activities in this case can be described as project-based networked foresight. The EIT ICT Labs are a network as such.
Foresight activities are longer-term activities than in the other two cases. They are either completely open to outsiders or limited to the network partners.
On first sight it appears that strategic information is the focus of the activities as well. However especially the two aspects‘‘consolidation of opinions''and the‘‘identification of new business models''are exploited within these strategic activities.
The aspects concerning strategy and vision of the partner organizations are of much less interest.
Thus, although the activities belong to the strategist role of foresight, they initiate, consolidate and evaluate new ideas, technologies, etc. as well.
Furthermore, when considering the secondary goals of the various activities it becomes apparent that the opponent role is of great importance within the EIT ICT Labs as well.
1. In all three cases the foresight activities are used as information sources for initializing new activities internally within the network partner organizations (outside-in.
scope and role of each activity. The scope comprises contributors and beneficiaries, ranging from individual organizations to networks of organizations and end-users.
Fig. 5. Foresight activities from the cases matched to foresight roles, scope and type of activity.
the analysis implicates that networked foresight activities are more likely to be activities with a certain degree of continuity, i e.,
‘‘consolidation of opinions''and‘‘identification of new business models''appear to initiate new activities instead of altering strategy.
Karel Haegeman is a scientific officer at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commisssion His activities focus on both advancing
This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building.
and desirability of joining the individual horizon scanning activities of the participating countries (the UK, Denmark and The netherlands).
3 and discusses amongst other topics the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool to set the agenda for more specifically focused foresiigh activities and other future-oriented technology analysis (FTA TOOLS.
5 but these scanning activities seem to have limited a very scope (only assesssin new health technologies).
) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.
7 In the same year, the Netherlands8 started a national horizon scanning activity that covered a wide range of (potential) futuur problems, threats and opportunities in all poliic domains (societal sectors) and in S&t.
NISTEP (2005) in Japan executed a scanning-like activity during 2005, which covers expectations across a wide range of societal areas
An increasing number of countries in Europe are considering undertaking horiizo scanning activities in the near future like Malta, Norway,
often originating in areas of activity or parts of the world that are ignored by mainstream media
and joint activity To prepare further cooperation, a network of Forsociiet partners was established including some externna organisations that had shown interest in the concept of government-initiated horizon scanning.
and sets of issues which cross policy domains for further focused foresight (improving the scoping of these foresiigh activities) and research.
of 366 proposals from the general Sigma Scan development Activity Engagements Output Scan the scans Categorise data Create the E-database Society
The report contained recommendations for Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 15 specific foresight activities which still have to be executed.
which is supported strongly by the so-called FAN club that the HSC established to suppoor horizon scanning activities in government and elsewhere.
(or similar activities) in the past or are planning to carry out horizon scanning (or similar activities) in the future. The function of this network will be the exchange of experience and know-how,
and scoping device for specific strategic forward looking activities (as scenario building, technology assessment and other foresigght) By repeating the scanning on a regular basis more insight can be gained on the impact of these activities
since it will give us a picture of what has changed in (our perception of) future issues over a period of time.
The creative content sector comprises a wide range of heterogeneous activities with diverse levels of industrialiisatio
the nuances and idiosyncrasies of this rich variety of activities. This has made it necessary to pragmatically select a subsse of them that appear to be particularly important considering the background of our project,
and distribution of creative content goods. We therefore defined the creative content sector as the collection of activities involving the creation and distribution of goods with an intrinsic cultural, aesthetic or entertainment value,
'and‘value')makes it possible to adopt a tolerant characterissatio of our subject matter avoiding traditional differentiations between‘high'and low'cultural activities,
publisshin (newspapers and books) and cultural spaces (museums and libraries)( see Figure 1). This looks actually like a heterogeneous bundle of activities, with very different historical roots.
and computer games) Culture and media industries (books, film, entertainment, TV, radio) Related industries and crafts (printing, musical instruments) Informal arts activities (amateur communities) Support
and heterogeeneou it was necessary from the outset to focus on a sub-set of activities most likely to be impacted by ICT innovation
content distribution and user interaactio for each of the above activities (see Figure 3 enabled us to understand
the relationship between voluntary and professioona content creation activities and between profit-oriented businesses and cultural diversity (as represented by‘core'cultural activities and education;
encouraging women to engage in creative content activities; raising awareness, especially among younger generattions of the value of creativity;
identifying activities and business models likely to contribute to creative conteen growth in the future and deriving conclusions for R&d policy turned out to be beyond the reach of the approach.
and they remiin us that FTA is also a sociopolitical activity and should be understood as such.
Please feel free to comment on any aspect of Canadda'foresight program or activity. Your advice and insights would be welcomed In the second phase,
A strategy is needed that serves to keep key stakeholders aware of ongoing projects and activities.
the authors'assessment may have underestimated the longer term impacts of the activity of the nascent Office of the National science Advisor (ONSA),
A major activity has been his association with the APEC Center for Technology foresight since its inception in 1998.
and R&d programs/activities required in delivering the desired technologies. The time frame of the roadmaps was divided into three periods:
and inspire other activities during the later stages of the project and after its termination is called usually‘postforeesigh engagement activities'.
'During this project many fruitful discussions took place, suggesting potential activities that could have a high impact in efforts to combat EID.
The project was announced concluded in late 2008 and the full report (APEC CTF, 2008) with policy recommendatiio was presented at the 34th APEC Industrial Sciennc
Even before the projecct'conclusion a number of activities related to the foresight project had been initiated that also raised the awareness in biosecurity throughout the region.
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