and experiences of local and national Dutch policymakker in applying foresight methods within the context of strategic policy processes.
each in the context of the development of a strategic environment plan (see 16, 17), that was developed for the first and second Limburg environment plan (covering a long term vision
One of the policy-makers said that‘‘(f) uture studies should match the biological rhythm of strategic policy processes in local and regional policy contexts''.
and that it can also be translated into a meaningful analysis within a strategic context 29 31.
that extend beyond regional and national boundaries 1. In this context, any deployment of future oriented technology analysis (FTA) must be able to take into account trans-border, often global considerations.
This paper addresses FTA and in particular foresight design and management in an international context. The aim is to draw lessons for international foresight processes on the basis of a specific international foresight project on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems.
This principle ensures that participants position the foresight exercise and their own activities in a global context.
and conceptualises design and managerial issues particularly relevant in the international context. Four principles for global foresight design and management are identified.
At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context
examining system properties in the international context in which the exercise takes place supports the development of a common understanding of different, even diverging, viewpoints.
In this context it is necessary, the authors argue, to enable a systematic analysis of how different (weak signals refer to one another
In this context, the partner meetings were vital to adapt the process to the evolving client's needs and partners'expectations,
From the outset the initial design was geared towards taking into account the specificity of context and intentions when identifying guiding questions (i e. intended impacts and objectives), determining participants (i e. type and level of stakeholders'participation),
Sustainable Manufacturing, 2010.34 D. Klimkeit, Organizational context and collaboration on international projects: the case of a professional service firm, International Journal of Project Management 31 (2013) 366 377.
Furthermore, expectations of outcomes and impacts tend to be context-dependent, and vary from concerns with the take-up of FTA knowledge in policy and decision processes, through to organisational vision-building,
and expected impacts can somehow be related to different contexts and conditions. The first paper from Eriksson and Weber, presents the methodological concept of Adaptive foresight.
and goal attainment levels. 3. FTA on specific issues Two themes of the 2006 FTA International Seminar put FTA into contexts.
The two issues are FTA in a business context and FTA on Higher education. The objective of the first was to collect knowledge,
Given the complexity of the context, it is crucial to support any reform by systematic analyses and vision-building exercises.
and fine-tuning FTA ACTIVITIES to fit particular context and clients. The challenge remains to have FTA ACTIVITIES more closely integrated within the policy-making process.
This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
and their importance is ever increasing in the more general context of what Cagnin et al. 6 refer to as‘Grand Societal Challenges'.
In the opportunity identification and idea generation phases, issues such as the‘functional fixation'of users to their current reality and the difficulty for users to break loose from their own use context are mentioned 19
It seeks to understand the complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple, realistic contexts, building on Foresight theory and practice, traditional user research,
They represent two different approaches for going beyond the‘here and now'in the context of innovation research. 3. Illustrations from two empirical case-studies 3. 1. Study 1:
The cultural probing method allows researchers to gather subjective information from the users in an everyday context.
and have internet access in the future by pasting green and red stickers on pictures of different contexts-of-use (see Fig. 1 on the left).
and context. 3. 2. 2. Results 3. 2. 2. 1. Phase 1. The main aspects and trends mentioned by the experts in phase 1 in their vision on future TV experiences
and to empower them to reflect on possible and preferable future developments in the context of TV experiences.
and could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
Living Labs 32 are systemic policy instruments that facilitate user-driven and social innovation in a natural, more ecologically valid research context, reflecting real life situations and conditions.
In this context, systems which are able to measure the performance of a firm (performance measurement systems
In this context, the proposed system aimed to become an important strategic tool for monitoring the effectiveness of public management. 3. 1. 2. Description The first case aimed to assess the efficiency of the Brazilian State of Parana in sharing
In this context, the proposed system was implemented to support a rethinking of the institution, its values and its development into a desired future,
In such contexts nonprofit measures are key to assess the success of any given action,
In this context, the inclusion of forecasting and technology assessment features would allow further experimentation (e g. modelling) in relation to the possible pathways actors can pursue both individually and collectively.
1) How is futures research related to the context of‘open innovation'in general, and to‘innovation networks'in particular?(
In this context, the application of futures research methods can serve various goals such as testing strategies, or identifying new business fields or new policy issues.
The contexts of cases usually differ to some extent. Thus, the generalizability is increased substantially when arriving at common conclusions for the cases.
Leadership had the tasks of (1) managing the program in this political context, (2) establishing a common understanding of innovation,‘openness'and involved risks,
Fakulta t fu r Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Rheinisch-Westfa lische Technische Hochschule, Aachen, 2004p.409.9 In the context of innovation networks, the allocation of two aspects of the strategist role
a conceptual model of context, antecedents, and outcomes, Academy of Management Review 21 (1996) 1143 1191.34 W. Qualls, R. W. Olshavsky, R. E. Michaels, Shortening of the PIC an empirical test
which these different papers propose to redefine FTA in specific policy-making contexts. The papers that form this special section were selected from those presented at the Third Internatiiona Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis held 16 17 october 2008 in Seville, Spain.
depending on the context in which it is applied, as is shown in the examples in Table 2. Some authors recommend the use of speciifi combinations of tools and approaches in order to build more robust methodologies (Rader and Porteer 2008.
However, other characteristics of FTA can influence its impaact depending on the functions of FTA in a particular context.
Furthermore, by exploring new mixes of FTA TOOLS they contribute to the creation of FTA techniques that are more adaptive to clients'needs and to context characteristiics Last but not least, this special section also contribbute to the identification of key success factors in the application of these techniques.
Medicine Table 1 Main categories used in the different scans Categories Netherlands UK Denmark Social context Society (including public services) Culture Work life People R&d
and education S&t development Economical context/finance Economics Economy Physical environment Environment Nature Resources Political, administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held
so that their effectiveness could be properly evaluatted The purpose of such guidelines would not be to limit their use to one particular context,
but to clearly distinguish the different ways in which horizzo scanning in relation to other tools might be used in different contexts,
which may provide users with a broad strateegi context at the top level, but also allow them to‘drill down'into more depth
even before they have been considered in combination with other issues in a group context. This alerting aspect makes it particulla interesting to identify faint
and competitiveness of the knowledge econommy In this context the creative content sector is expected to become a major source of nextgenerratio jobs across the world.
with the ensuing redistribution of revenue shares in favour of powerffu platform owners, essentially gatekeepers of audiennce in the new convergent context,
In this context, customer expectations need to be managed carefully for a company to remain successful and building trust and awareness are part Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 24 of the equation.
It started with a general brainstorming on global trends and other socioeconomic considerations that may characterise the context in
Each scenario was described focussing on common elements like global context, infrastructure, practices of content production, distribution and use,
To structuur our discussion we followed the common elemeent used in step 3 to systematically describe our scenarios (global context and key drivers
although in a wider context than that of the creative content sector alone. Nonetheless, we feel that the issues identified are crucial to ensure a thriving European creative content sector in the future
since we wish to focus on the determiinant of success once the basic context has already
Buetschi and Nentwich (2000) identified several context or foundational success factors for influencing the political role of participatoor technology assessment (see Table 3). These studies tell us that FTA EXERCISES should not be viewed independently of their contexts
But it must also be well described so that the context of change, incluudin both its challenges and opportunities, can be appreciated.
This paper deals with cross-disciplinary technologies in the context of a cross-boundary regional setting,
The result of this‘converging'approach is to be shown in this paper in the context of the crossbounndar Asia-pacific regional setting.
The scope and focus were developed further into the context of the future by scenario planning, in
With a clearer context of: where and how different technologies are required by users, what are the necessary R&d issues, the key success factors and the barriers,
where the context of technology applications in a multilateral R&d agenda is usually not fully explored.
In this paper we reflect on the implications of this new innovation context for traditional product development processes.
In this changed context, many new products fail to‘cross the chasm'between the adoption segmeent that include innovators and some early adopteer on the one hand and the mass market on the other (Moore, 2002;
The new context has urged companies to put user needs at the core of their innovation strategies in a more systematic and structured way.
) In this context we can also refer to policy action that suppoort user-driven innovation, such as the rise of living labs, which are user-driven innovation environmments and the launch of the European Network of Living Labs (ENOLL) in 2006.
Although many other policy initiatives are embedded in this new innovaatio context, it remains difficult to create a meaningful synergy between users and technology in the field of ICT development.
This paper therefore aims to discuss the integratiio challenges still to be found in this user-centred context.
User-driven innovation In this new context, the notion of user-led or userdriive innovation has assumed a prominent role.
) Følstad (2008) situates the rise of living labs in this context of user-driven innovation. Living labs are innovation environments that provide full-scale test-bed possibilities for inventing, prototyping,
The notion of translators is used also in this context (Veryzer and Borja De Mozota, 2005. In this respect it is relevant to mention the gap betwwee Qoe and Qos, two important concepts in the field of ICT development.
Jain, 2004) In this changed context, Corrie et al. 2003: 2) emphasiiz the importance of users'expectations and experiences:
insigght into users'experiences and expectations (e g. in a particular context or for a certain application) are shared often not in an interdisciplinary developmeen team.
In this context a frequently recurring issue in user research is limited the ability of common users to break loose from the existing frame of reference
focusing on the evaluation of Qoe in a mobile living lab settiing In this context, we developed a five-step interdiscipplinar approach for linking Qoe to Qos parameters in living lab environments.
who were asked to indicate those scenarios that were accepttabl to them (for a good experience) in a mobiil context. 3. Monitoring of Qos parameters during use.
Future research will include the testing of this multimettho approach with a large number of users and several usage contexts and parameters in a living lab setting.
we reflected on the implications of this new innovation context for traditional development processes. It was mentioned that this predominant focus on the user led to an expannsio of the traditional range of user research instruument with methods and tools from other fields.
there is a lack of robust tools to enable context and co-creation research in living labs. Furthermore,
Reassessing the value of bottom-up approaches within an interdisciplinary mobiil media context. Paper presented at European Communicatiion Policy Research Conference (Eurocpr), held 31 march 1 april 2008, Seville, Spain.
A software tool to relate technical performance to user experience in a mobile context. Proceedings of the 2008 Internatiiona Symposium on a World of Wireless
A tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision-making is needed in the context of a fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment.
This instruumen adapts the methodology of technology roadmapping to addressing critical innovation policy challennge at the level of national and regional innovation systems, within a global context.
or a strategy for a region to engage in an active market creation in the context of some promising emerging technology.
particularly in the context of concerrte transitional efforts to address major societal challennges They specify the key dimensions of transnational, vertical,
This is particularly true in policy contexts where the issues are not yet prominent on the policy agenda
and where the requisite actions must be implemennte early on to ensure success. In such contexts,
as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
In this context, governance, social engagement and foresiigh can be seen from a common point of view, looking forward to visions of the future and to what must be done to transform those visions into reality,
In this context, planning for out-of-the-box thinking is absolutely necessary if one is to break the mental barriers
In this context, the task is to help to articuulat and translate to all participants, in a common and understandable way, the main objectives and strategic goals, taking into consideration the possibilities,
A brief description of FINEP's context..The strategies and attitudes adopted to promote out-of-the-box thinking during the course of the exercise..
in its quite challenging context, required a strategy which, on one hand, balanced the knowledge related to the present and a number of relevant future possibilities,
which provided a clearer vision of the internatioona context of ST&I development and the role of funding agencies.
and on FINEP's role in this context. Among several other possibilities, there were a few aspects of the process
While there may be arguments for pursuing‘megaprojjects in some contexts overall the dominant legacy of centralized planning for grandiose projects still looms over science policy,
which are developed in a global context. A sectoral innovation system, as analyzed by Malerba (2004), should have a set of specific knowledge bases, inputs and demands.
and is embedded in the global context. The actors within the system such as institutional actors, use the knowledge of a particular technological field to produce a set of particcula products.
In this context, FTA can generate‘informing, '‘structuring'and‘capacity-building'benefits while enabling a shift in innovattio foci towards grand challenges.
and the need for an operational agenda that takes into consideration a context-sensitive approach required to address specific challenges.
since the introduction of something‘new'in a different context often implies adaptation and technology transfer and/or organisational changes (Hall and Rosenberg 2010).
and context-sensitive approach will be required that takes into account the nature of each challenge and the industries and sectors that need to react
displaying a variety of structures in a range of contexts and performing various functions. The advantages of thinking in terms of innovation systems is that they provide a more complete picture of the topography of innovation-relevant actors and the relations between them
In this context, this paper has introduced some of the contributions that FTA could make to orienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges.
In this context however, the potential to engage diverse stakeholders enabled through FTA does not always take place.
in order to understtan how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruptions.
Current practices of FTA require transformation through effective embedding of FTA in a user context of governance structures
the institutional context and modes of governance in which FTA is embedded. In order to focus on the organisational and institutional aspects of FTA systems,
and the types of organisational models and governance contexts that make up FTA systems. Section 3 will draw primarily on recent empirical research presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, 1
and organisational models of FTA) a conceptual frame is developed for analysis in the empirical part of this paper. 2. 1 The fast-changing context:
Requiring systemic and structural transformations The global context represents an arena of major disruptiion triggered by natural and man-made events
In the context of this intricate web of disruptive, natural and planned transformations FTA has a critical role to play in defining effective policy responses.
and modes of governance FTA systems form an active part of the institutional context and governance structures managing systemic and structural transformations.
This relationship with the governance context demarcates how FTA systems evolve and drive the anticipatory capabilities in society.
rendering them attractive as network nodes in an international context. Institutionalisation also has its drawbacks as organisatiion within a public administration may be at risk of ossifying.
In this context, scenario work seems to allow fairly flexible frames for such overarching discussions, whereas a number of other methods are applied to develop future plans and action-oriented recommendations for decision-making.
Some papers are interestingly addressing the systemic qualities of the context in which FTA is conducted by way of exploring
Contextualisation/embedding by approaches that are tailored to particular contexts: global, national, regional, local or sectoral.
or foresight activities tailored to exploring the future in the context of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies and achieving impact on national innovation systems (NIS).
The increasingly dynamic global and national context implies a greater breadth and depth of functions to be provided by FTA systems,
Embedded and networked FTA facilities are particularly suitable to fulfil the following functions for innovation policy4 in such a dynamic context:.
and challenges can be addressed by combinations of governance contexts and appropriate organisational models of FTA. 3. 2. 2 Observation 2:
They are due both to the more volatile and uncertain context for policy-making and to the growing demands for transparennc and accountability.
Institutions are confronted with greater complexity and uncertainty in their context. The fast pace of technological change and the complexity of its societal repercussions make the interpretation of contextual developments very difficult.
Exploring the balance between these three forms of FTA ACTIVITIES in empirical terms helps to improve our understanndin of how effectively different combinations of activities work in their respective decision-making context and governance modes.
In this context, it is imperative that foresight initiatives to address global challenges are carried out at regular intervals to build a common understanding of current situatiion
The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
it was realised quickly that these objectives required a good understanndin of the wider context of international science cooperation
and presented as a‘general context'to developments over the coming 20 years. In addition, a further 13 key drivers, for which trends are much more uncertain,
but this may be influenced by a range of external pressures, e g. political contexts, career incentive structures, etc.
ICSU recognised that its effectiveness in addressing societies concerns about complex international science could be answered partly by ensuring effective outreach in the context of each of its programmes.
In this context, ICSU now plays the central role in communicating the results of interdisciplinary global research to international fora.
This paper presents innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) as a methodologgica framework for linking R&d results to systemic policy contexts and to forward-looking policy design.
The case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
Because of these developments, in the 2000s it has become more common to talk about systemicity in the context of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies.
This paper discusses how the methodology of roadmapping could be applied as an instrument in systemic policy contexts.
The discussion aims to open a perspective on how policy development can be facilitated in a dynamic context of societal challenges and enabling technologies.
Secondly, the literature on systemic innovations and transition managemeen emphasizes the dynamic relations of sociotechnoologica landscapes, socio-technical regimes and niche-level innovations in the context of emerging technologies (Geels and Schot 2007.
Thus policy design aims to increase the resilience of the policy practices in the systemic contexts by allowing space for policy experimentation.
369) aptly capture the functions of foresiigh in the context of policy design. The functions of foresiigh are:.
and makes it adaptable in different contexts. Fourthly, IPRM also combines bottom-up and top-down perspectivves Nonetheless,
Particularly when developmeent commercialization and diffusion of innovation takes place in a context with a high degree of systemic characteristics
With regard to a set of pressing‘grand challennges such as climate change, an aging population, depletiio of mineral resources or shortages of food and water, roadmapping can identify latent societal demand, for example, in the context of sustainability.
the system could refer to an entity consisting of different actors, for example, in the health value network and the regulatory context of this network,
IPRM endorses the positioning of the policy practices in a dynamic socio-technical context, and weighs the policy practices in relation to the conditioning factors.
At this level, the technology is set in its immediate societal context. Capabilities refer to the competencies, at the scales of individuals, organizations and geography,
In the context of Victoria's construction industry, the question of strategic intervention is motivated basically by the rather‘conservative'nature of the field.
Innovation in the constructiio sector therefore needs to be framed within the larger context of new business processes, contractual arrangemennts organizational culture,
Collaboration between the key R&d players and the government would be important especially in the Victorian context, due to the fragmented nature of the construction sector.
and secondly, to provide an assessment of this nexus in the context of VTT's strategy.
Furthermore, basic demand-side policies, like public procureement can be utilized in the context of green ICT as well as economic incentives. 5. 3. 3 Sectoral development.
and virtual products. 6. Conclusions This paper has depicted an IPRM methodology in the context of forward-looking policy design.
The aim of the case studies was to reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
possible foresight principles in the context of transnational research programming are discussed, as well as the role foresight can play as an integrator of programming functioons The paper also looks at the implications for transnatiiona programming in Europe and elsewhere.
the context of transnational research programming tends to be highly complex and uncertain, and different stakeholders take part with diverse expectatiion and capacities.
and sense-making of the context, and followed by the identification of research/innovation topics and societal challenges.
Historically, research policies have emerged through development paths that reflect the societal contexts of their path-dependent technoinstittutiona co-evolution.
because it has to account for an especially cumbersome context and sector-specific differences. Such differences are caused by the dynamics of evolutionary and systemic processes with different phases of competing technological alternatives and emerging dominant designs (Ko nno la et al. 2011.
given the role of time lags in transnational policy-making contexts. Table 3 links the four dimensions of policy co-ordination, as described above
and management style to the case-specific context and to particular requirements of the participating organisations and related stakeholders.
Participation in the context of aligning research systems may also relate to sharing research results. 3. 2. 2 Vertical co-ordination.
Informed programmmin decisions necessitate the comprehensive examination of the wider context, building on diverse statistical and policy support databases and the plethora of documentation from different levels of research and innovation systems.
but need to be flexible for tailoring to casespeccifi contexts. Furthermore, the positioning of foresight 204.
Finally, transnational programming in a non-European context may benefit even more from the capacity of foresight to act as an integrator,
At the same time, the new global context suggests increased financial, trade and investment flows leading to high levels of interconnectedness.
Within this context it is crucial to inform policy -and decision-makers about new and future opportunities as well as threats and have prepared them
and tools that were used in their correct context, the main phases of the SESTI scanning process should first be clarified. 3. 1 SESTI scanning process Three main phases can be distinguished,
i e. the interests of the client, the wider policy context which they are associated with, time and budget restrictions,
It is about analysing and understanndin the societal contexts behind the entire process of initiation, communication,(r) evolution and disseminattio of issues,
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