Foresight has been applied at global and regional levels to support the design and implementation of policies and strategies.
Conducting the investigation this way makes it possible to address multiple levels and dimensions of how foresight processes impact on the innovation systems globally.
The latter claims that foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process to that of individual actors'strategies.
the design aimed to ensure the international relevance of the results by taking into consideration previous work both at European and International levels as well as seeking the participation of stakeholders from around the globe.
From the outset the initial design was geared towards taking into account the specificity of context and intentions when identifying guiding questions (i e. intended impacts and objectives), determining participants (i e. type and level of stakeholders'participation),
and engaging stakeholders Dissemination of results through the networks Training Tailored dissemination to targeted stakeholders Dissemination in different levels of innovation systems 9 However,
This understanding of potential needs at the local level which influence IMS at EU and global levels is
therefore critical for shaping future customised RI calls for project collaboration and appropriate funding mechanisms. 5. Conclusions The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on how future global collaborative research
In fact, in the past 10 to 15 years, FTAACTIVITIES havemultiplied across a wide spectrum of settings and at different levels.
and underlines that Foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process and get to the level of individual actors'strategies.
The contribution provides a process outline and examples of Adaptive foresight, including a critical assessment of its potentials
The second paper by Brummer et al. addresses the challenges of organising future-oriented consultation processes that are promoted at the international level and, in the precise case by the European commission,
Then, a‘logic model'approach is used to develop an‘objectives hierarchy'describing the relationships between higher level goals
if the higher levels goals are to be realised. In parallel, a‘logicmodel'approach is used also to provide checklists of the foresight inputs
and activities likely to lead to the attainment of both lower and higher level system goals,
She was in charge of different projects aiming at reinforcing the position of the JRC-IPTS as a centre for Foresight at European and international level.
'At a more tangible level, it has been argued that active involvement of users helps to create a good fit between the needs, expectations,
The CIM can be described on two different levels of detail: level 1, which links‘the'future to innovation processes and level 2,
which structures the partners involved in the innovation network and links them in a cyclic way.
Thus, the cases will show different levels of networked foresight. In one case the different concepts might be present but not explicitly formalized,
three different levels are used (visualized as gray-shading) for each component of the CIM to visualize their preference concerning openness and network orientation of futures research activities.
It is important to note that the levels in the illustration do not rate or reflect business performance of the organizations.
Thus, RWS is continuously searching for innovations in their Fig. 1. Level 1 of the Cyclic Innovation Model:
The CEO is also responsible for the application of the vision and strategy at a day-to-day operational level.
Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results in addition to conceptual work about possible future developments created a kind of‘‘the urgent drives out the important''atmosphere as Henri Kissinger put it.
and project teams consisting of employees from the working level helps to capture developments from the various partner organizations on different levels A regular selection
1. Within the EIT ICT Labs foresight that utilizes the network on various levels is practiced. 2. Beneficiaries of these activities are the network partners and the network itself.
She represents Malta at EU level on the Joint research Centre Board of Governors, the Euro-Mediterranean Monitoring Committee for Research and Technology development and the Framework programme 7, Regions Programme Committee.
this paper makes a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common future-oriented policies.
Horizon scanning on the national level, across all policy areas (including S&t opportunities) is a receen development
Nongovernmental organisations have carried out both narrow and broad horizon scanning, even at a global level. Well-known examples include the Internaationa Council for Science (2002) exercise that focused on societal issues and research agenda settiin and also its foresight analysis (International council for science, 2004.
exchange experiences and know-how on horizon scanning at the national level; compare basic data (lists of issues
The possible use of the horizon scan data at the European commission (EC) level was discussed in interviews with representattive of different directorates within the EC.
Stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels, to broaden their thinking,
and departmental policies, particulaarl on the strategic level. Deliver information to a diversity of societal actoor
and implemented for some clients on the regional level. Furthermore, it was expected that publication of the issue lists on the horizon scan website would have the effect of raising public awareness of the issue.
and cultural expression as long as it does not interfere with other dimensioons increasing the intellectual level in service of the other dimensions;
In all scans we can obseerv that the level of abstraction (or granularity) that was used to describe the issues differed slightly between the scans.
Cooperation The use of joint scan data at the European level could offer a useful way of addressing the complex challenges the world
Supporting evidence and issue description Another common question concerned the high level of aggregation of the issues in the descriptions in the scan highlights the danger of superficiality.
which may provide users with a broad strateegi context at the top level, but also allow them to‘drill down'into more depth
Map of levels of complexity and indetermiinatio for foresight studies. Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
while providing the level of specificity needed to derive meaningful policy implications and conclusions. As explained above, the creative content sector is characterised by huge uncertainties in scientific-technological as well as in socioeconomic and institutional terms.
He has worked for many years as a scientist and policy advisor on research, technology and innovation policy, both at national and European level.
The creative content sector comprises a wide range of heterogeneous activities with diverse levels of industrialiisatio
A different level of participation was embedded at each stage of the above process. The sector analysis was carried out by the project team through literatuur review and expert interviews.
In order to tackle the diversity of the creative content sub-sectors, the scenarios addressed two levels, namely the creative content sector in general and specificities of at least some sub-sectors.
At the most basic level, success can be defined as attainnmen of the foresight programs goals. The problle is that,
or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
high levels of interaction; inclusion in organizational renewal procedures; ideational entrepreneurship; persistence and innovation, especially in communications;
At an operational level, the nascent Canadian foresiigh initiative (2002 2008) was able to produce some excellent projects with strong insights,
and professional levels of organizations and industrial domains affected by the foresight were able to be involved in the process,
so despite a low receptor capacity, a reasonable level of connection was generated Total: only two out of eight factors were clearly evident 2008 Assessment:
In Europe the concept of NBIC was studied by A high-Level Expert Group which produced a report (Nordmann,
the trends of potential infectious diseases, the timing of the emergence of those diseases, the level of severity of the impacts from the spread of those infectious diseases to communiitie etc.
no need to refrigerate Long shelf life Rapid test Gives result rapidly Easy to use in the field Small sample consumption Reliability Individual Information for decision at national level Sharing intellectual property and experience
medicine with testing linked to information networks and personalized treatment High throughput technologies Rapid pathogen genetic characterization, high level of biosecurity Users'requirement Access to latest technologies
A biosafety level (BSL) is the level of containment precautions required to isolate dangerous biological agents in an enclosed facility,
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development.
and a more latent level that are quite difficult to grasp (Rosted, 2006). As a result, userdriive innovation requires an interdisciplinary approach.
and at a more latent level that are quite difficult to grasp User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 54 narrow and technology-centric scope of many projects.
De Marez and De Moor (2007) looked into Qoe at a conceptual level and identified five main dimensions and over 70 subdimensions.
At the policy level, considerable effort has already been put into the creation of a new innovation system.
and innovation at firm level have been launched in recent years. CTI is the government agency through which public funds are poured into the business sector.
All overviews emphasize the importance of the control variables included in any empirical assessment and the level of aggregation at
'and the non-subsidized firms is significantly higher (at the 10%level) for all four matching methods than the respective differeence for the‘low-subsidy'firms (i e. significanntl positive difference of the differences).
Only coefficients of variables that were significant at the 5%level are reported All variables in table are dummy variables Reference group for firm size:
with lessons drawn from the experiences at both national and international levels in the application of fta. The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) entitled‘‘FTA and Grand Societal Challenges:
which served to translate possible futures into a schema that is both comprehensible and actionable, a high level of imagination and openness to new ideas,
Open processes based on high levels of participation allow for far greater input of information from different perspectives, but run the risk of a decrease in quality control
experiences of particular organisations, operating at both national and international levels, in applying FTA to their own innovation activities as well as those of key stakeholders.
This instruumen adapts the methodology of technology roadmapping to addressing critical innovation policy challennge at the level of national and regional innovation systems, within a global context.
Significant features are that it is targeted at the systemic level of multiple actors and organisations,
One response, based on introducing higher levels of flexibility into governance systems, is via a much more systematic embedding of FTA within government.
and complexity of the themes being considered, the level of stakeholder participatiio and, quite frequently, the communication skills of those managing the process.
and involving government at several levels, the private sector and academic organizations. Beside the fact that the strategic foresight methodologgica approach adopted in this paper will be presented later
that immediately after reaching a certain level of understanding about the complexity of the main theme considered in the exercise (high level of shared understanding),
On account of its being strategically positiione very close to decision-making at the highest level, it displays a high capacity to mobilize experts, within and outside Brazil.
The diversity of communication channels and the need for effective coordination between these three different levels emphasizes the importance of setting up a well-structured governance body for the whole exercise.
to achieve high levels of common understanding about future possibilities and impacts associated with the theme of the main exercise.
interviews were conduccte with different stakeholders at national level, including 30 government, industry and academy Figure 4. FINEP SMP timeline:
The quality of the contributions, at all levels, by far surpassed initial expectations..The process had a very beneficial effect on FINEP,
when precompetitive technological programs reach government decision-making at high levels. Academia: representatives from universities and research institutions tend to impose barriers to accepptin strategic foresight activities.
and all governance levels are to be considered and respected. Methodological approaches are to be consistent with scientific standards to attract participation
)) Priority-setting in Chinese research policies and programs operates on different levels. The first level concerns ideology and overarching national strategy.
The Chinese government's programmatic and overarching emphasis on a‘harmonious society'and, more recently,
on‘indigenous innovation'as beacons of policy-making more generally, are examples of the first level of priority-setting,
The second level concerns the formulation of medium-and long-term plans. The third level concerns the design of the national S&t programs
while the fourth stratum is at the level of research organizattion (i e. the CAS) and funding agencies (i e. the NSFC.
At the meso-levels (level 3 and 4), priorities are set within the framework of long-term (and five-year) plans,
or thematic centers of excellence can be juxtaposed with programs aimed at raising the general level of S&t throughout the country.
We focus primarily on the so-called meta-level, using examples from some of China's most important programs and plans. 266.
The configuration of the differeen levels of innovation systems has been discussed to a certain extent (Markard and Truffer 2008.
Consequently, this paper discusses the configuration of innovation systems at three levels: national, sectoral and technological.
the components and their interactions in the configuration of the different levels of innovation systems remain unclear.
and extensivvel deepened the level of pharmaceutical research for small molecular medicines and Chinese herbal medicines (Zheng,
Even though the technological level of the agricultural biotechnollog innovation system was very high due to the governmment'policies, these biotechnologies were commercialized seldom. 4. Discussion
This new orientation is perhaps nowhere more in evidence than at the EU level, where grand societal Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 140 152 doi:
However, higher levels of interaction need not necessarily be better for innovattio system functioning either. This is because strong cooperative relationships can lead to overembedddedness marked by myopia and inertia (Woolthuis et al. 2005.
and adapt to the future and thus address common challennges and to spread democracy and transparency at the global level.
and facilitating knowledge creation across differeen boundaries at various levels (as explained in Section 2) Knowledge diffusion Knowledge diffusion is given essential the boundary-spanning nature of grand challenges.
and an ability to respond at the international level. Hence, there is a potentially important role for international organisations to play in this regard.
and at a more generic level than existing initiatives like JPIS, or Art. 185 initiatives (Wintlev-Jensen, cited in Amanatidou 2011).
and experience but also creativitty These spaces could also be created at different levels of governance (regional, national,
FTA can be performed at different levels and in different places, thereby contributing to the creation of variety in innovation systems Informing role of FTA facilitates building of a common vision for a specific theme or challenge,
and strengthen the coordinattio of public research programmes conducted at national or regional level. It provides a framework to network and mutually open national or regional research programmes, leading to concrete cooperation such as the development and implementation of joint programmes or activities.
2010)‘ Joint programming in research 2008 2010 and beyond',Report of the High level Group on Joint Programming to the Council, November 2010.
implement and monitor joint action at international level (Amanatidou 2008; Brummer et al. 2008. Increased mobility, the instantaneoou impact of events through social media and the socioculttura interconnections linking Europe to the rest of Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 153 165 doi:
European and global levels in the face of sudden crises and point to serious shortcomings in our ability to anticipate
and processes at corporate and government levels. In recent years, institutional responses have included the setting up of horizonscanning centres and similar anticipattor structures (Amanatidou et al. 2012;
FTA systems cover three levels of elements and the interdependencies between them namely:.the individual capabilities and mindsets to anticipate change in fast-changing environments;.
the individual level of analysis will not be addressed in this paper. This simplified conceptual frame allows consideration of variants of FTA
organisational and technological innovations at the three levels of FTA systems, to make FTA fit for the challenges of the future.
and international level and are compounded by weak collaborative links between these entities in sharing information (anticipatory intelligence and early warning),
In our analysis these basic‘forces'are transposed to the societal (governance) level, allowing a deeper understanding of how governance exercises influennc in the system.
Amanatidou et al. 2012) in the UK, Netherlands and Singapore at national or regional levels, aimed at identifyiin not only major long-term trends and drivers,
They also require a minimum level of capacity and competence to be in place, as well as organisations either institutionalised Table 1. Key characteristics of modes of governance Integration mode of governance.
whereas institutionalised forms of FTA are more suitable under unstable political conditions and in situatiion with a high level of fluctuation.
2012) report on the setting up of foresight units within several departments at the federal level in Canada.
regional and international level are emerging. These carry out their work in open networked mode, sharing informatiio at international level with their counterparts in other countries and also internally within the country, with government, business, academia and the public.
This networked mode of operations links with social networks as a means for identifying weak signals. 5. Addressing deficiencies
Local, regional and national FTA networks, cutting across different policy areas, can support an appropriate level of policy coordination to anticipate
and the level of coordination needed to achieve coherent decisions adds to this. Institutionalised FTA capacities are required to support this type of coordination.
and the ability to respond at the appropriate international level. Different models of FTA systems can be complementary in many respects.
Increasingly, such issues need to be framed at a global level, reflecting both the international nature of science itself
Research projects are submitted then for funding at the national level by individual (groups of) researchers. ICSU cosponsors all four prograamme
UNESCO plays an imporrtan role at the governmental level while ICSU coordinaate international programmes across its scientific unions and national members.
There are also a number of inter-governmental bodies based at the regional level that are working on international science issues.
Nevertheless, the vast majority of financial support for science continues to be at the national level.
and South-South groupings flourish Science funding closely linked to specific national priorities High levels of societal engagement in science threaten some of its institutions,
A higher level of science literacy has been achieved through a mix of measures around general education, e g. teaching critical thinking and better appreciation of risk and uncertainty.
IPRM is targeted also at the systemic level of multiple actors and organizations. Thus, this visionary process includes many participants and different interests.
This visual emphasis enables the use of roadmaps as crystallized strategy maps that open up a simultaneous perspective on both the macro-level currents and on the corresponding micro-level developments (Blackwell et al. 2008.
and landscape levels are seen as gradual and slow-paced. However there are also crucial differences between IPRM and TM.
the level of study (e g. does the study focus on the generic impacts 180. T. Ahlqvist et al. of ICT in society or specific applications in a defined sector) and the nature of the process and its participants. 3. 2 Policy rationales of IPRM A key aspect of IPRM is that it links the results
there are two levels of inspection in IPRM: the level of systemic transformation (transformation roadmap) and the level of enablers (technology roadmaps.
However, it depends on the case whether the particular enabling roadmaps are necessary or whether it is sufficient to map the enablers at the level of a systemic transformation roadmap.
In Section 4, for example, we present an example of a more focused sectoral roadmap (the construction industry in the Victoria Technology roadmap, Australia) in
The structure of the systemic transformation roadmap is presented in Fig. 1. This roadmap depicts the impacts of the objects under scrutiny (e g. new industrial practice and emerging service business) in an overall systemic level.
This level depicts the key drivers and the so-called‘grand challenges'that are assessed as the most important factors structuring the roadmap topic.
In IPRM, the second level of policies, policy instruments and regulatory changes is critical. IPRM endorses the positioning of the policy practices in a dynamic socio-technical context,
The third level is sectoral development, with an emphasis particularly on emerging solutions, and on anticipated convergence and disruptions.
This level provides critical contextual setting for the policies. The fourth level is key enablers
with a primary focus on technologies that enable the sectoral development. Fig. 2 presents the subset of a systemic transformation roadmap, the technology roadmap.
The technology roadmap has four potential levels. What levels are utilized depends on the topic: in some cases it is enough to map just the enabling technologies,
In the first level, technology-based solutions, specific developments of technological solutions are depicted on a level that is assessed as necessary.
At the second level the technologies that enable the solutions as well as the potential technological convergence are mapped.
At this level, the technology is set in its immediate societal context. Capabilities refer to the competencies, at the scales of individuals, organizations and geography,
Because the regulations are not always consistenntl coordinated between different levels of government, companies that operate across several jurisdictions report high compliance costs due to multiple regulatory frameworrks The second bottleneck is based the project nature of construction, with little replication at the design level.
since Victoria suffers from lowering levels of precipitation and a shortage of water storage facilities.
The key policies can be categorized into the levels of drivers, markets, products and solutions, and technologies.
At the level of drivers, the most important policy would be Present Medium term Long term Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Policies:
At the level of markets, referring mainly to the demand-side policies, the first policy proposal was to move from techniccall specified regulations toward performance-based regulations.
At the level of products and solutions, the support for collaborative R&d and facilitation of commercialization of research results were assessed as the main innovation policy practices.
At the level of technologies, the three most important policy proposals were: public funding for research and technology development, technoloog validation and the verification of environmental impacts.
In the medium term, global warming is expected to be the major driver at the global level. Consequently, more concrete regulation and incentives for both citizens and companies will be utilized.
'The roadmap has two levels: technology-enabled solutions and enabling technologies. 5. 4. 1 Technology-enabled solutions.
monitored and evaluated at national level (European commission 2008. Another driver for more collaboration is the increasing pressure in Europe1 and other parts of the world2 for research and innovation to both support competitiveness3 and offer solutions to global and local societal challenges.
Gnamus (2009) proposes eight levels in internatioona science and technology (S&t) co-operation (see Fig. 1). This paper will focus on level four‘programme co-operation and co-ordination'.
'The different levels defined by Gnamus are not mutually exclusive, activities and different levels can coexist within transnational co-operation between nations.
Within the EU initiatives between Member States exist on all eight levels and all are part of the same research and innovation system.
Co-ordination of research and innovation activities therefore needs to take into account possible links between different levels of transnational co-operation.
For instance, some programmes may require joint infrastruuctur investments, innovation clusters may benefit from links with coordinated programmes.
Positioning programme co-operation and co-ordination within this wider perspective shows the importance of aligning collaboraatio between different levels of S&t co-operation.
and project levels (see Table 2). Table 1. Tensions in transnational research priority setting between science and policy-making, based on experiences with identification of joint programming initiatives.
NETWATCH11) level, each offering some of the functionalities mentioned above. Table 2. Key functions in transnational research programming and related barriers Function Description Key barriers5 Scoping
National regulations constraining funding to national activities Differences in national funding rules Uncertainty at national level of rewards of collaboration Inequality of investment makes it impractical to design joint programmes Programme
call Different expertise levels among participants to work with (online) application forms Limited experience/capacity in pan-European collaboration Lack of common technological basis Differences in scientific
programme level) of evaluation Timescales of national evaluation processes may vary considerably Differences in experience in monitoring,
Also lessons from other levels of S&t co-operation (see Fig. 1) are valuable for transnational programming.
For instance, at the level of international research infrastructures, issues like prioritisation criteria, funding, governance, evaluation and impact assessment are being discussed in Europe (European commission 2010a).
At the level of innovation clusters the recently established first knowledge and innovation communities (KICS) of the European Institute for Innovation and Technology (EIT) also face issues of governance, prioritisaatio and evaluation.
18 varying levels of interest at national level for collaborating beyond borders and the openness of current programmes to other nations.
4 5 6 7 Knowledge exchange Knowledge clustering Level of strategic approach to S&t cooperation Degree of networking Joint infrastructure investments No instruments no cooperation 0 1
as well as the behaviour of sub-national levels of government, are mutually reinforcing and coherent with overall policy commitments.
regional and (international levels providing significant insights into the challennge of managing multilayered research and innovation systems.
The articulation of thematic priorities for transnational research and innovation co-operation, e g. from EU level, raises issues related to their coherence with the priorities and needs of lower levels of governance, particularly in terms of
to potential barriers to transnational research programming. 2. 3 High level of complexity calls for a systemic,
and implementation orientation Differences in distribution of research across research performers Differences in degree of control of governments over research agendas Varying interests at national level in collaborating beyond borders Varying openness of current and past
Different funding modes Vertical co-ordination Co-ordination between local, regional and (international levels National researchers not keen to see more budget used for transnational projects Lack of alignment between policy-makers
and implementing organisations Difficulties to agree on the type of contracts at different levels for Research,
to encourage transnational activities No clear priorities at national level Horizontal co-ordination Co-ordination between research
at national/regional level 196. T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman specific processes and roles of foresight in each of these cases is given below and in Fig. 2. 3. 1. 1 Wood Wisdom-net24.
and JPI Urban Europe Use of a pilot call to engage stakeholders at different levels in broadening knowledge base Engagement with other networks and organisatiion (e g.
and information sharing at different levels and in different phases (information sharing and alignment of existing programmes,
Foresight may enhance vertical co-ordination by taking stock of previous anticipattor studies and existing visions for the future at regional, national and transnational level.
A gap analysis on missing future outlooks may propose additional studies at regional, national or transnational level.
Networking and engagement with related initiatives at different levels, within and beyond the geographical scope of the collaboratiion may also support vertical collaboration.
Conducting bottom-up consultations or launching a (pilot) call aimed at gathering more anticipatory intelligence are ways to provide different policy levels with rich information about the interests of the stakeholders
or upgraded, is needed to process contributions vertically from stakehollder who are accustomed to different levels of abstractiio when considering regional,
and enables transitions between different levels of abstraction by way of problem structuring and synthesis (Ko nno la et al. 2011).
and scoping its research programme it is often premature for many national agencies to decide on their level of committmen to that programme and its planning.
which calls for the identification of suitable interfaces at different levels of research and innovation systems Figure 3. Process and result flexibility in modular foresight design for transnational research programming. 202.
building on diverse statistical and policy support databases and the plethora of documentation from different levels of research and innovation systems.
e g. to systematically involve regional and local levels in JP. The analysis and discussion may be of similar relevance to forms of transnational research programming between nations outside Europe
public administration and civil society in different levels of research innovation systems set a major managerial challenge how to prepare,
targeting policy-makers at differeen policy-levels. 36. A set of examples of internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of all sorts in future-oriented technollog analysis can be found in Haegeman et al.
'Final Report of the High level Expert Group for the European commission, 24 april 2002. Brussels: European commission..(2008)‘ Summary of the Impact assessment',Commission Staff Working Document.
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