A knowledge-based perspective A. Eerola A i. Miles b a VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester united Kingdom 1
of the key judgements and assumptions that entered into it, of the perspectives and likely reactions of other stakeholders,
on foresight process and results Conference papers Project website Fig. 2. Different foresight elements in a dynamic process of shared knowledge creation, a SECI perspective.
posits about FTA FTA can be examined from many several perspectives. Here we have related methods in FTA to knowledge and knowledge management issues.
However, the stakeholders, their perspectives, and the representations of the participants involved are analysed usually not in a systematic way.
It also requires a broad and long-term perspective on what is needed for sustainable human development and how to achieve its objectives. 3. Accountability of governmental institutions and private sector,
From a stakeholder perspective, strategic management needs to create a satisfactory balance of interests among the various stakeholders who contribute to
and its umbrella communities, should adopt necessarily more complex perspectives. Long term and systemic analysis are key characteristics of FTA,
and to encourage reader to think about similar other Future-oriented examples from their own perspectives.
and thereby focuses on a single definition in each case after exploring several perspectives. This approach was selected
and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
17 Y. Nugroho, O. Saritas, Incorporating network perspectives in Foresight: a methodological proposal, Foresight 11 (2009) 6, 21 41.
and the variety of their experience and perspectives. A full list of the interviewees is provided in Annex 1. A video of the interviews can be accessed at http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/videos. html.*Corresponding author at:
Social implications The papers of this Special issue point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives
Finally, the papers point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives and to shape the social context.
FTA techniques need to embrace different perspectives including those considered impossible now and to provide a holistic view.
taking the user perspective into account, fostering participation and building networks. Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
and to make the perspectives of different stakeholder groups heard and seen. FTA can contribute not only to the steering of innovation systems,
In Cagnin and Keenan (2008, p. 4) it is emphasised that FTA is based on principles such as future orientation, evidence, multiplicity of perspectives,
Although, from a theoretical perspective, it makes sense to state that any intervention may have catastrophic unforeseen consequences,
From a policy analysis perspective, the transport system, with its components and their interrelations, could be understood as an abstract conceptual model
From a 1970's perspective: heavy growth rates in freight transport in the EU on roads from and to eastern European countries Effect of a bypass road on kilometres driven in an area (additional traffic might be attracted.
The basic principle of integrating information is the formulation of arguments, perspectives and judgements. This can be done in form of one-way communication as it is usually practiced in expert hearings
or-from an ex post analysis perspective was proven to regularly provide obviously wrong results.
Although this timeframe constitutes a short to medium time perspective, the action plans aims at building a long-term vision,
and to provide capabilities such as reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives, including those considered impossible now.
''Rules can be laws and policies but also values and perspectives: The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to accommodate changes in the basic rules.
Foresight techniques need to enable practitioners to see the landscape from different perspectives and to generate both optimum and (currently) non-optimum alternative potential strategies and options.
From a foresight perspective however, Axelrod's (1985) is the most useful: Agents, of a variety of types, use their strategies, in patterned interaction, with each other and with artefacts.
but also values and perspectives). B Enable visioning of phase change situations (with no early warning signals) and the resulting changed world.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 297 B Enable practitioners to visualise systems from very different perspectives,
and to generate an understanding of these different perspectives on potential policy options. B Enable the generation of a range of future options
''From the perspective of applying foresight the benefits of reframing are: B realising that there are more choices than thought,
With these perspectives, the link with, and importance of, the concepts of optimisation and exploration (resulting from the non-equilibrium state of a complex system see section 2. 5 above) also becomes clearer.
can all enable policy makers to see the system from a different perspective and to generate both optimum and (currently) non-optimum alternative potential strategies and options.
5. Conclusions Complexity theory can provide a different perspective on how and why future disruptive changes may happen in a system.
and skills (such as reframing) to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones that are considered not possible now,
and to enable users to develop an understanding of implications these different perspectives on potential policy options.
but also values and perspectives. Policy making needs to take place with the knowledge that that disruptive events will happen
Policy making must use techniques such as Reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones not possible now,
and to understand the implications of these different perspectives on potential policy options. Policy making needs Foresight techniques to enable the generation of a range of future options
cost-effectiveness of climate policy and mainstreaming of the climate perspective among the general population.
Due to its focus on alternative futures, discontinuities and long-term perspective, backcasting suits especially well for solving of environmental issues,
This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation.
By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.
and we employ it in our case study. We will show that it is possible to trace emerging irreversibilities for a specific application of nanotubes (Section 3). We will conclude by placing our contribution in a historical perspective of technology assessment
Arnall 13, page 14 states here (taking a market perspective: bthe most important material in nanotechnology today.
Cientifica14 24 from a market perspective points out that, when the opportunities for nanotubes in electronic devices are discussed:
Important to mention from a market perspective (computer chip industry) is the following, as articulated by Collins and Avouris 23:
The three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation.
which the perspectives and actions of multiple heterogeneous actors are involved. Understanding the dynamics from the different perspectives gives insight in the different points of view of the actors involved in the CTA study. 16 Finally,
we note that the emerging character of nanotechnology provides research opportunities for innovation and technology studies.
These views are directly related to the social perspectives on the new technology. As the set of involved actors is developed heterogeneous,
they can be downloaded to a geographical information system (GIS) to observe future urban implications from the spatial perspective.
looking at Law and legal systems from a series of different angles and perspectives. In this way,
integrated picture and multiple perspectives on the hard problems we are facing''(Helbing, 2011). As Helbing (2011) explains,
employing a variety of perspectives and methods''(Helbing, 2011); the‘‘Planetary Nervous system''will work as global sensor network,
but also from an economic, political or a social perspective. PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, available at: http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/eur20137en. pdf Tuomi,
Consideration of the long term perspective the dealing with the integration problem, complex cause/effect-relations and the inclusion of extra-scientific communicattio already have been practised for a long time.
It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
and should include not only the perspectives and knowledge of the developers and proponents of a technology,
Especially this exercise is expected to deliver more knowledgeable and thus reliable perspectives about the interdependences between scientific and technological developments, internal and external challenges and products or applications than many other approaches.
and perspectives from people who are involved usually not in the technological development process at an early stage may be an additional advantage.
Although earlier conferences had focused in a rather self-reflexive manner on future perspectives for FTA (2004 and the impact of fta on decision-making (2006,2008),
the organisational and the individual perspectives would become essential, and would need to complement the technological perspective that has dominated traditionally FTA. 2 It is against the background of such transformative changes that this special issue looks at the fundamental possibilities
and limitations of applying FTA to cope with the challenges ahead, and at novel FTA APPROACHES to push the frontier of what can be done to better address them.
A fourth religious/mythological perspective can add to bridging the gap between the systems analysis and the real world.
The organisational and the personal perspectives deal with humans collectively and individually, while the technological and religious perspectives are created constructs by humans (Linstone 2011a).
3. It consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldviewand myth/metaphor. Inayatullah (1998) argues that,
New perspectives for developing countries. World Development 13, no. 3: 441 63. Polanyi, M. 1998. Personal knowledge:
bringing life changing events where an appreciation of existence alone will bring the situation into a liveable perspective.
In detail the axiomatic perspective represents the theorem proof world of research. A high degree of knowledge is assumed
this is the basis for most survey research interpretive perspective includes the context of the phenomenon as part of the object of study.
Interpretive FTA studies people rather than objects critical theory attempts to synthesise the positivist and interpretive perspectives
A perspective on systems science and systems philosophy. Futures 6, no. 3: 219 39. Meredith, J. R.,A. Raturi, K. Amoako-Gyampah,
According to a realist perspective on expectations, a distinction can be made between an expectation and the‘real'state of affairs.
This does not imply that in a constructivist perspective all expectations are necessarily the same.
the constructivist perspective focuses on identifying or promoting the‘robustness'of an expectation (Sung and Hopkins 2006).
(which includes many choice moments) with more actors, more perspectives and, in general, more reflection (Schot and Rip 1996;
For foresight exercises, it is relevant to consider that the constructivist perspective acknowledges that others are in the same situation as those who judge the expectations (Van't Klooster and Van Asselt 2011.
In contrast, the realist perspective implies an asymmetry: others may be victims of the game of expectations,
A knowledge-based perspective. Futures 43, no. 3: 265 78. Froot, K. A d. S. Scharftstein,
Perspectives on roadmaps: How organizations talk about the future. Journal of Product innovation Management 18, no. 1: 39 50.
Perspectives on democracy and technology. Science, Technology and Human Values 3, no. 5: 559 81.
From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
and mobility business and are carried out at a global level or for a specific region over a 10 15-year perspective.
Introducing new perspectives and practices. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 285 9. Miles, R. E,
From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
The behaviour of these networks is analysed from the perspective of sympoietic complex systems. Embedding FTA within the proposed management dynamic framework enables business networks to develop their sympoietic system capability, through interactions and inclusive dialogue,
achievement of common ground, shared perspectives, dynamic multilateral partnerships, trust and adaptation as actors interact, new ideas emerge and existing
Interpreting complex systems from the perspective of ecosystems, Dempster (1998) coined the expression sympoietic systems, indicating three main differences, related to key system characteristics between autopoiesis and sympoiesis:
A self-organizing systems perspective on planning for sustainability. B. Sc. Thesis, University of British columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
but that different approaches offer different perspectives and levels of detail that can each be of benefit to the analyst or manager.
In this article, we open a view towards the systemic capacities, based on a perspective of an organisation as a complex system that is mobile in space time.
The idea springs from the perspective that organisations are complex systems where transformations arise through emergence,
This visual emphasis enables the use of roadmaps as crystallised strategy charts that open simultaneous perspectives both on macro-level currents
and social/actor space are linked to a strategic perspective of the future, i e. a strong target Building strategic
and the social/actor space are combined in a distinctive strategic perspective. The fourth knowledge space is the visionary space.
The first roadmap scope is R&d I, with a perspective of a single technology or object.
This is quite a traditional technology roadmap that aims to build a future perspective for a single technology. The aim of the roadmap is to identify specific action steps towards the future.
with a perspective of a single organisation or firm. Basically, the view is similar to the first one,
R&d perspective on a single technology or object Roadmapping single technologies from a certain perspective Enhancing organisational capacities in a certain technology field Building vision
R&d perspective on a single organisation or firm Roadmapping organisattiona capacities in developing new competencies Roadmap for developing organisational/firm capacities Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces
business perspective Network roadmapping Roadmap for developing capacities for a network or a cluster Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Making business decisions on the basis
and it emphasises the business perspective. The roadmap aims to develop capacities for a network or a cluster,
In this space, the project formed a novel perspective of VTT's research on building services
e g. advanced materials Several novel single technology elements were embedded in the roadmaps Social/actor Exercise covered social/actor space from the selected perspectives Capacities for linking of knowledge internally, e g. construction and ICT
and to foster business decisions based on a novel‘service perspective'formed in the process (Myllyoja, Wessberg, and Pajakkala 2012).
It focussed on building a policy-level perspective for Nordic-level developmeent The systemic policy orientation distinguishes Nordic ICT Foresight from the three previous examples.
From a capacity perspective, the project aimed to construct a basis for understanding the Nordic region as a‘common strategy region'in the ICT context.
and Sweden) Constructing a basis for understanding Nordic region as a‘common strategy region'in the ICT context Forming a perspective of ICT convergence in the Nordic region (fragmented modularisation ubiquitous) Evaluating the value and meaning
and fostering a service-oriented perspective was of importance in the cases. The case of the SSB network,
From the perspective of systemic capacities the construction of an integrative‘Nordic'anticipatory culture was a critical theme.
either from the perspective of business or governance, requires integration of competencies over the traditional sectoral boundaries.
First, the notion of systemic transformation capacities should be analysed from perspectives other than roadmapping. The lessons of the article could be ennobled by putting them in a dialogue with other foresight methodds such as scenario and weak signal analysis.
and historical analyses would benefit from the deeper engagement with how the contextual future perspectives are manifested in the past presents'.
and stakeholders (Step G). Convening a workshop with multiple perspectives can anchor Step G exploration of alternative innovation pathways.
The use of multiple information sources in conjunction with each other enriches perspective on how the NEST is being developed.
Technological innovation systems and the multilevel perspective: Towards a combined framework for the analysis of innovation processes. Understanding processes in sustainable innovation journeys, Utrecht. van Merkerk, R. O,
B Delphi provides technological perspectives for the challenges; B scenario reveals the social impact of technological development
and technology because they are considered complementary to each other also in regard to perspectives of development in science and technology.
and the necessary steps to move forward based on an overall perspective that integrates individual stakeholders'points-of-view.
From this, an overall national perspective can be derived. Furthermore, the existing organizational structure in a research policy making institution (such as a government department) reflects earlier priorities
and perspectives that may collide with the conclusions drawn from the most recent foresight results. In other words an organization might have to adapt its structure again and again to optimize its ability to absorb each round of foresight results
Firstly, strategic dialogues have helped to overcome the necessarily limited perspective of individual units within an organization such as a federal ministry by connecting units with each other in a loose network where ideas can VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 21
and society in addition to politics, combining their perspectives at an early stage to explore promising pathways for politic decision making.
Therefore, it is essential to create an atmosphere of mutual understanding where different perspectives are being honored amongst the stakeholders involved.
A small number of selected experts covering different aspects of the subject matter and a variety of perspectives are selected
Gaps in previous research and the need for governmental support are being identified from the experts'perspective.
The perception of the BMBF as well as the role it should play is reflected also from an external perspective.
their ability to add a unique perspective, their openness to consider and explore a broad range of possibilities and viewpoints,
B defining necessary prerequisites and requirements for additional cooperation from the perspective of external stakeholders;
From the perspective of research policy makers, strategic dialogues provide the missing link to transfer the results of foresight and similar strategy processes into research policy making.
‘‘Review of Global Drivers and Trends from a National Perspective in a Global context'',was a four-month exercise that sought to‘‘to develop a catalogue of global drivers and trends,
perspective in a global context''.''It contains 47‘‘fiches, ''grouped into eight themes: 1. Global governance and political economy;
2025 (FS1) The aim of this foresight study was the identification of the most important and well-developed S&tareas in Russia in the long-term perspective.
and perspective innovation projects for investment. The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.
whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at the development of S&t.
A Reader in the Resource-based Perspective, Oxford university Press, Oxford. Orwat, C. 2003),‘WP 1 Review and analysis of national foresight;
and perspectives from the outset of an endeavour in order to properly foster nanotechnology by establishing governance structures able to coordinate interactions of relevant actors.
and influenced the practice of FTA to show that alignment of approaches, consideration of users'perspectives and divergence,
in three different technical domains and related to three different grand challenges, grounded in a system perspective.
in order to better understand the systemic and structural transformations of complex systems, ii) inclusion of a multiplicity of perspectives, worldviews, mental models or quantitative models,
implies the need for an organisational structure that includes a variety of actors and perspectives from the outset.
These contributed in a specific way to opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes,
Hence, alignment of approaches and consideration of users'perspectives, as well as divergence and the need for social shaping seem critical to advance FTA 384 C. Cagnin et al./
and shape the future from different methodological perspectives. Whilst the community has grown since the first edition of the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), there is still little dialogue
whilst allowing in a relatively immediate way for multiple perspectives, it does not enhance cross-disciplinary learning between project participants,
Examples of current and upcoming FTA practices Internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of various sorts Online sharing of perspectives on different data types:
6 The Risk assessment and Horizon scanning Initiative (Singapore) developed a Service Oriented Based Horizon scanning Architecture (SOSA) allowing sharing perspectives on data sets
and the sharing of perspectives across the network is supported by a set of perspective visualisation tools.
The implication for foresight methods is that network analysis can introduce a‘systemic'perspective emphasising relationships between actors,
for those who come from a strongly quantitative perspective to communicate the core of their work to anyone outside their community.
Increasing trust between communities can also be pursued, from a strictly methodological perspective, by increasing the mutual understanding of the approaches applied.
recent experiences and future perspectives, Res. Eval. 19 (2)( 2010) 91 104.18 FTA Scientific Committee, Call for papers, in:
a knowledge-based perspective, Futures 43 (2011) 265 278.23 For-Learn, Online foresight guide, European foresight platform.
O. Saritas, Incorporating network perspectives in foresight: a methodological proposal, Foresight 11 (6)( 2009) 21 41.43 B. Boyer, J. W. Cook, M. Steinberg, in:
Individual and Organizational Perspectives. Doctoral dissertation, New york state School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Cornell University, 1979.55 T. Lawson, Developments in economics as realist social theory, Rev.
much in accordance with the perspective envisioned by Harold Linstone in 1999 2, following his optimistic view of a strong, confident technology-driven scenario,
and Fig. 1. Technological forecasting in perspective presented by Linstone in the 30-year anniversary issue of TF and SC (1999).
Deep uncertainty pertains, in other words, from a modelers'perspective to situations in which a multiplicity of alternative models could be developed for how (aspects of) systems may work,
Different perspectives, differentworldviews or different mental models of various stakeholders are usually the norm in FTA projects
since EMA allows incorporating a multiplicity of perspectives, worldviews, mental models or quantitative models. That is, EMA could be used to support an inclusive modeling process from the start, where different beliefs about how a system functions,
and by widening the perspectives and knowledge base of researchers, policy-makers and business decision-makers. -be useful in creating a common language and understanding between the various interest groups.
The three questions represent a specific perspective linking action and decision-makingwith issues of (i) emergence,
Futurists are used of course to deal with short, medium and long-term perspectives, but it has been shown that differences in the construction of time play a significant role in the construction of meaning about the future (e g. of nanotechnologies 44).
The generic methodological requirement from this perspective is an explicit account of the construction of time within the context of the study at hand.
This means that situations are rooted in a particular moment and place and seen through the perspective of a certain set of lenses 45.3.3.
In addition, implications for practitioners are highlighted by elaborating elements of good practice and areas of improvement. 4. 1. Window of opportunity Leveraging the first perspective,
To synthesize our findings for the first perspective, we distinguish two groups of scenario practice.
The two motivations are connected to the perspective used in the analysis (i e. window of opportunity) and can be seen as a polarized view on this element of practice.
and using scenarios to strengthen the sense of urgency. 4. 2. Legitimacy for action Looking at the second perspective,
When considered from the perspective of creating legitimacy for action we also suggest that the scenarios in this group could benefit fromcomplementary techniques connecting the long-term future images to the present via stepping stones.
In addition, including perspectives from the different stakeholders can reveal new areas for innovation 73.4.2.3. Backcasting from principles A third group of practice is characterized by a focus on backcasting from principles.
Also for the third group of scenario practice, we suggest some areas of improvement with regard to legitimizing actions by adding a planning perspective via roadmaps or similar approaches.
Looking at the third perspective, i e. empowering stakeholders, our analysis of the case studies from Appendix 1 revealed two groups of scenario practice:
Also from this‘empowerment'perspective we suggest some areas of improvement. Stakeholder involvement, for instance, may be facilitated by conceptualizing the future as open and dilemmatic,
and discussed the applicability of future scenarios as narratives to represent different perspectives on present and future developments.
it is also essential to make one's perspective clear so that the claims to knowledge can be critiqued constructively and improved.
patterns and effects in comparative perspective, J. Comp. Policy Anal. Res. Pract. 3 (2001) 311 337.15 OECD, Fostering innovation to address social challenges, in:
The Power of Mass Creativity, Profile Books, London, 2008.33 C. Freeman, The national system of innovation in historical perspective, Camb.
and integrated international perspectives collected through multinational workshops held in the US, Europe and Asia.
Seen from the perspective of the VDI-TZ, which conducted the activities, the aim of these forecasting exercises was to identify new and promising fields for research funding,
documenting its potential prospects from the perspective of various sectors of industry, describing future applications,
implies the need for an organizational structure that includes a variety of actors and perspectives from the outset.
a knowledge-based perspective, Futures 43 (2011) 265 278.29 M. Rader, A l. Porter, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types, in:
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