We argue that all four innovative methodological features contributed in a specific way to opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation
The resulting visions were discussed with innovation experts with different perspectives on innovation patterns through interviews and an online survey.
These results show that by using weak signals from diverse sources of information it was possible to generate visions covering a wide range of different perspectives.
The inductive approach of the project was successful in integrating diverse perspectives and stimulating diverse experts to participate in the process.
The consideration of very diverse perspectives can be seen as an important starting point for the assessment of systemic change.
and facilitated a creative interaction of people with different perspectives. Furthermore the visual approach succeeded in mobilising tacit knowledge and personal, emotional assessments.
A deepened understanding of the different points of view and perspectives was achieved compared to many other approaches looking for early convergence rather than emphasising divergence.
but also allowed the spreading of information, the extension of the expert network and the integration of very diverse perspectives.
Themajority of these responses indicate that the project succeeded in opening up new perspectives for exploring the future of innovation with relevance for strategic conversations among various actor groups.
because to some extent the INFU perspectives were transcending the underlying assumptions dominating today's perception of innovation.
and fostered the integration of diverse perspectives not only at the beginning but throughout the project.
The value of the contributions of actors from different perspectives was exploited much better than in conventional workshops where participants'contributions are documented by the foresight team.
and for introducing out-of-the-box perspectives. We feel that this kind of approach holds a considerable potential for complementing established foresight methodology
combining insights from innovation systems and multilevel perspective in a comprehensive‘failures'framework, Research policy 41 (2012) 1037 1042.
these make it less easy to locate FTA institutionally to achieve the necessary crosscutting perspective. New institutions
Their application to innovation is increasingly taking into account the user perspective and the need for social shaping.
The two papers that most clearly take a contextual improvement perspective (a) are the one by Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen and the one by Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin.
But as time went on the consistent presence of heterogeneous perspectives and the difficulty of making sense of this continued diversity of the FTA voices made another case.
to be confused and fragmented perspectives across the field. All of which threatens to undermine the credibility and relevance of anticipatory thinking for decision-making.
From a socioeconomic perspective, therefore, Denmark is more of a hybrid between CME and LME,
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 15 5. Conclusion and perspectives This paper aims to contribute to the discussion of national cultures'effects on national foresight exercises.
References 1 EFP,‘‘Foresight and forward-looking activities exploring new european perspectives,''summary of major findings, in:
recent experiences and future perspectives, Research Evaluation 19 june (2))(2010) 91 104.4 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:
A Theory of Action Perspective, Addison-Wesley US, Reading, MA, 1978.17 T. C. Garrett, D. H. Buisson, C. M. Yap, National culture
new perspectives, Asia Pacific Business Review 16 october (4))(2010) 493 504.23 P. A. Hall, D. Soskice, Varieties of Capitalism:
Evaluating local and national public foresight studies from a user perspective Nicole Rijkens-Klomp a b,,*Patrick Van der Duin c, d a International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands b Pantopicon
In this paper, the evaluation is approached from a demand-driven perspective, in other words, from a user perspective i e.,
In this paper, we argue that, by paying more attention to the user perspective in the public domain
focusing on the end-user perspective i e.,, that of policy-makers who have applied scenario analysis and using their perceptions as a measure of the perceived added value.
Nevertheless, the findings at the local level can be put in perspective by comparing them with the findings at the national level,
including external perspectives. Ministries increasingly call in external experts, both from the public and private sector,
and to include representative and diverse perspectives. This means that an‘outside-in'perspective is increasingly being adopted
both from a content perspective and from a process perspective. The two national studies show that civil servants are increasingly knowledgeable about futures research methods,
improving their ability to assess the quality of futures research projects that have been outsourced. On the whole, we conclude that, at a national level,
The use of foresight studies stimulated mutual learning processes, allowing participants to learn from each other's perspectives on the future and providing them with a common foundation for future policies.
which can clash with the longteer perspective of most foresight studies. Da Costa et al. 25 stated that a lot of effort and commitment is needed for policymakker to switch from dealing with short-term issues towards a more long-term and holistic approach.
which may be explained by the fact that both organisational levels are related to each other from a governmental and political perspective.
This was critical to ensure that the developed snapshots would take into consideration not only a European perspective,
and the vision supported wider engagement Inclusion of diverse stakeholder interests supporting the definition of the relevant vision Inclusion of diverse perspectives
from an indicator to a network and process perspective, Technology analysis and Strategic management 13 (4)( 2001) 533 553.19 F. J. Contractor, P. Lorange (Eds.
Social Shaping of Technology perspective), whose needs, values and expectations should be tapped'systematically 8, 9. In so-called‘user-driven innovation,
From the users'perspective, several limitations and constraints have been discussed in this respect. In the opportunity identification and idea generation phases, issues such as the‘functional fixation'of users to their current reality and the difficulty for users to break loose from their own use context are mentioned 19
(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives
IF introduces an inclusive vision development process with longer-term perspective and a strong future component.
This technical perspective however does not take the evolution of TV as a medium from the user's perspective into account
Among the experts were people representing stakeholders from different perspectives (from a commercial broadcaster, regulatory institute, large multimedia retailing company, online social platform, university and big telecommunication player in Flanders.
and the participants were asked to reflect on this from their own perspective. Day 2 of the probe focused on scent-TV
From a user perspective a review of the literature on current television viewing practices and time spending patterns confirmed the observation that TV is still predominantly a lean back medium.
In both studies, information and intelligence concerning real experiences, practices and visions from a user perspective served as starting points.
Strategies and Limitations from a Socio-Technical Perspective, Profil-Verlag, Munich, 2005, pp. 9 35.17 M. Borup, N. Brown, K. Konrad, H. Van
The BSC is a management system that presents a firm's vision and strategies in four perspectives:
These perspectives have outlined their objectives in measures, targets, and initiatives through cause and effect relationships (hypotheses) 25.
Such analysis is key to define the strategic objectives of the firm departing from the value perspectives of the BSC (i e. financial, customer, internal processes, learning and growth.
This takes place relating the strategic objectives to the four perspectives of the BSC. 1 3. Selection of measures:
these refer to the actions selected in each of the four BSC perspectives to achieve the defined strategic targets (step 1 above.
and different perspectives to build a joint understanding of which cultural and educational aspects were considered relevant from the citizens'standpoint.
which to base the selection of specific performance measures 52,59 Performance Prism 33 There is a need for additional perspectives
an examination of frontline perspectives, Journal of American Academy of Business 11 (2007) 11 16. 16 O. Furrer, H. Thomas, A. Goussevskaia, The structure and evolution of the strategic management field:
A Theory of Action Perspective, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts, 1978.35 G. Schreiber, H. Akkermans, A. Anjewierden, R. Hoog, N. Shadbolt, W. De Velde
A New Scientific understanding of Living Systems, Knopf Publishing Group, New york, 1997.55 B. Dempster, A Self-organizing Systems Perspective on Planning for Sustainability,(B. Sc. thesis), University
Since the 1940s, the way people and organizations have looked at the future has changed from a technology-oriented attempt to predict the future toward a more exploratory perspective that incorporates many different societal aspects (e g.
A preceding concept to open innovation that takes a corporate perspective is absorptive capacity. This initially analyzed the‘‘ability of firms to recognize the value of new information
while being reasonable from a project perspective 43. However, we ensured that at least one researcher acted solely as an observer in both cases.
The networks can benefit from networked foresight especially due to its varying perspectives, diverse backgrounds of the involved people and broad information base.
From the perspective of the network this is a coupled (outside-in and inside-out) information flow from the perspective of the partners it is an inside-out information flow. 6. Conclusions This paper aimed at exploring futures research in innovation networks by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model as analytical framework to three cases
and analyzing foresight activities therein in terms of type, scope and role of each activity. The scope comprises contributors
Doing this with the networks'partners promises to sharpen the results by including additional perspectives
the opposition role of foresight is strengthened in the large network of the EIT ICT Labs. This appears to be explicable with the inevitably added new perspectives and consolidation of unconnected information through the network.
a new perspective on learning and innovation, Administrative Science Quarterly 35 (1990) 128 152.27 S. A. Zahra, G. George, Absorptive capacity:
impact checklists, state of the future index, multiple perspectives assessment Matrices Analogies, morphological analysis, cross-impact analyses Statistical analyses Risk analysis, correlations Trend analyses Growth
Adaptive foresight is applied by Abadie et al. to the highly uncertain environment of the European creative content industries as part of the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
Such different perspectives may contribute enormouusl to understanding our own place in the future. Further development of the joint horizon scan On the basis of the experience of the pilot joint horizzo scan and discussions within the established netwoor of interested organisations and interviews with representatives of different directorates of the EC, a proposal
Michael Friedewald and K Matthias Weber This paper discusses the approach adopted to carry out a techno-economic foresight on the creative content industries, within the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
She was responsible for the European Perspectives on the Information society (EPIS) project, a prospective study dealing with the future evolution of the creative content industtries She has worked also for many years in the field of electronic communications policy and regulation at Europeea level.
reflecting their respective interests and perspectives. The high degree of diversiit of the creative content sector represents an added difficulty in taking an EU-wide perspective,
as diversity hinders the formulation of broad and coherren initiatives. However, in spite of the diversity of the various creative content sub-sectors, the convergence of digital content and media has given already way to a growing convergence of future issues in these subsecttors Many of the challenges
the methodological setup succeeded in generating forward-looking perspectives on the creatiiv content sector, building on a consolidated understtandin of how the sector works and likely future trends.
2006) looked at FTA from the corporate perspective and identified several criteria (content and process) for improving the effectiveness of foresight studies (see Table 4). Survey process From the preceding discussion,
inspiration and appropriate temporal perspective Foresight process criteria Structured way of production and deliverance of foresight thinking;
with those domains where senior policy-advisors and policy-makers appreciate the need for longer term perspectives,
and shared a longer term perspective to enhance the region's capaciitie to contribute to the successful prevention and management of EID.
I Scenario planning Online survey Literature review+Bibliometric Analysis Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region's capacities that contribute to the successful prevention
first, we expand on a number of theoretical perspectives on technoloog and society and the notion of user-driven innovattion We then explore the implications for traditional innovation and development processes.
we then identify two imporrtan challenges for scholars and practitioners from a user-driven innovation perspective.
Theoretical perspectives Interplay between technological and societal forces The relationship between technology and society has already been studied from various perspectives.
However, from the 1960s on this industry-push perspective was challenged by more human-centred paradigms that largely reject this notion of technologgica determinism
Closely related to the social shaping perspective is the social construction of technology (SCOT) approoac (Bijker and Law, 1992), in
In the SCOT perspective, it is assumed that negotiatiio between certain social groups influences the construction and emergence of new technologies (Bijker and Law, 1992;
such as the issue of the continuous involvement of users and the discrepancy between theory and practice in this respeect Although the user-driven innovation paradigm advocates an open perspective
and practiice Although in theory many projects start from a user-and pull-driven perspective, the mantra that‘innovation should start with the user
beyond the diffusion and social shaping perspectives. The Information society, 20 (4), 255 267. Corrie, B H, T Wong, S Zimmerman, A s Marsh, J Patrick et al. 2003.
This introductory paper provides an overview of selected conference contributions and the perspectives in which they address key issues in the development and implementation of FTA in relation to these challenges.
A direct implication of this perspective is that while the effort committed to advancing FTA as an adaptive tool (assisting governments to plan for incremental change) have been useful,
Open processes based on high levels of participation allow for far greater input of information from different perspectives, but run the risk of a decrease in quality control
This special issue assembles a selection of papers addresssin these issues from three main perspectives:.systemic change, reorienting the research
and its role in assisting in aligning technologgica and societal perspectives with the more visionary framework necessary to address grand challenges.
new perspectives and opportunity maps present themselves to a corporation through identifying its challenges and strengths (Coates, cited by Miles et al. 2008).
Foresight seeks to provide a strategic perspective for the present, with knowledge of future possibilities, building commitment to and coordination on national or institutioona priorities.
which needs further knowledge generation and interpretation of trends, perspectives and future possibilities. Furthermore, it is important to assemble possible futures in the same way that a puzzle is assembled
as different stakeholders usually have divergent perspectives for defining the best route towards the desired future. Foresight exercises help to overcome these limits
and common sense perspectives ingrained in the past (Hames 2010; Johnston 2010. In foresight exercises developed by CGEE, mind-set revision involves the participation of experts
and Grupp 2001) This approach aims to link the present decisions and actions to a strategic perspective, coping with the possibilities of the future for the construction of commitmeent around national priorities for ST&I. 248.
opportunities and different perspectives brought by the clients themselves. Secondly, systematically introducing collective intelligeenc throughout all the phases of the process is the key for achieving success (Glenn 2010.
technological and commerciia strategies (long term perspective; financing mechanisms; future of plant breeding and plant breeder profile;
It required a broad exercise of exploring future perspectives and a systemmati process of questioning ‘what is going on'and‘what we should do differently',
the political changes that could affect it as a government-owned company. 5. 2 Future perspectives A tool the future timeline was developed
Johnston, R. 2010)‘ Methods and tools for breaking mindsets and bringing new perspectives to the table',paper presented at Foresight International Seminar:
From a historical perspective we have identified waves of modernization strategies, drawing S&t ever closer into the political core.
Cantner, U. and Pyke, A. 2000)‘ Classifying technology policy from an evolutionary perspective',Research policy, 30: 759 75.
China and India in Perspective. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. The Economist. 2009)‘ China's struggling smaller firms.
From Freeman's perspective (1987) research, technology development and innovation (RTDI) policies extensively shape the national system of innovation.
National institutioons from the perspective of Malerba (2002), should match the sectoral innovation system within the national borders.
From their perspective (see Fig. 1 a national system is delineated on a spatial basis, while a sectoral system usually crosses a geographical boundary,
From the perspective of the government, since the knowledge accumulation of biopharmaceuticals in Taiwan was too weak to compete with developed countries,
Markard, J. and Truffer, B. 2008)‘ Technological innovattio systems and the multilevel perspective: Towards an integrated framework',Research policy, 37: 596 615.
Su, J.-C. 2004)‘ Global perspective of Taiwan's agricultural science and technology: A review of the past and projectiio for the future',Forum for Agricultural Innovation and Development Council of Agriculture, 26 nov 2004, pp. 15 21.
This is a potentially useful perspective for efforts directed at reorienting innovation systems towards grand challenges. Drawing upon a mix of sources (Bach and Matt 2005;
at least from the perspective of transcending boundaries to better address grand challenges, FTA PROCESSES bring longerteer perspectives and broader knowledge bases into decision-making processes.
By doing so, they place greater emphasis on holistic and multiple perspective approaches under which many potential levers for shaping the direction of innovation can be identified (e g. regulatory, financial, consumer behaviour etc.).
They can also assist in managing the uncertainty associated with innovation activities and with the future more broadly by providing spaces for policy,
From a policy arena perspective, this coordination potentiia can enhance communication and understanding 144. C. Cagnin et al. between policy‘silos'and thereby support the emergence of an effective policy mix for innovation.
Finally, the act of participating in FTA PROCESSES can itself be transformative by encouraging the adoption of new perspectives
and normative perspectives and defines forward directtion for coping institutionally with fast and disruptive change. It also points to key conceptual conclusions. 2. Conceptual framework:
From a historical perspective the recent debates on the need to tackle transformations and disruptive developmeent represent the most recent shift in the evolution of FTA.
with greater attention being paid to the perspectives of societal stakeholders. Projects and programmes continued to be the dominant form of implementing FTA,
In many policy areas, both public and private sector, a strategic perspective on decisionmakkin is necessary
Longer-term perspectives must also be incorporated to reflect the time horizons of key global challenges
From an organisational perspective, it is designed to test the role and mission of ICSU and guide long-term strategic choices aimed at strengthening internatioona science for the benefit of society.
In addition, a number of large discipline-based professional associations have an international membership and perspective in their work.
During Phase 1, perspectives were gathered on potential drivers of international science over the next 20 years.
In this way, the emphasis of consultations shifted from predominnantl seeking individual perspectives to those of organisations especially ICSU member organisations.
Another challenge concerns accommodating some of the regional differences in perspective that undoubbtedl exist on the subject of international science cooperratio for grand challenges.
In this regard, ICSU has a regional office infrastructure that could be called upon to contribute regional perspectives to the exercise.
while the European Science Foundation (ESF) created a programme of Forward Looks in 2000 as an instrument for developing medium term perspectives on future directions of multi-disciplinary research in Europe. 4 In national settings,
an International Perspective on National foresight Studies',review report to the ICSU Committee on Scientific Planning and Review Report.
like the perspectives of users, societal regulation and markets, have become core parts of science, technology and, now, innovation policies.
IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
The discussion aims to open a perspective on how policy development can be facilitated in a dynamic context of societal challenges and enabling technologies.
The first is the provision of policy advice by accentuating the long-term perspective. The second is the building of advocacy coalitions.
From our perspective, six functions of foresight defined by Da Costa et al. 2008: 369) aptly capture the functions of foresiigh in the context of policy design.
Reconfiguring the policy system towards long-term perspectives. Innovation policy roadmapping. 179. Symbolic function, i e. that policy is based on informatiio that is shared and collaboratively interpreted.
This visual emphasis enables the use of roadmaps as crystallized strategy maps that open up a simultaneous perspective on both the macro-level currents and on the corresponding micro-level developments (Blackwell et al. 2008.
Thirdly, TM emphasizes both top-down and bottom-up perspectives. Fourthly, TM puts a specific emphasis on crafting the policy activities according to the long-term systemic targets.
in the case of IPRM one could talk about a process perspective. Top-down information might be utilized during the process,
However, in contrast to the long-term emphasis in TM, IPRM adopts a multi-temporal perspective that is dependent on the topics under scrutiny (e g. the long-term in information
from both temporal and load profile perspectives. The new energy consumption informattio could enable novel business models and the provisiio of new digital services for diverse stakeholders, such as:
It can also provide a more nuanced perspective of the temporal sequencing of the evolution of technology and innovation,
Foresight enables the connection between multiple stakeholdders with diverging perspectives and limited informatiion and enables them to align their actions towards shared long-term visions.
A multilevel perspective and a case study',Research policy, 31: 1257 74..(2004)‘ From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems.
Positioning programme co-operation and co-ordination within this wider perspective shows the importance of aligning collaboraatio between different levels of S&t co-operation.
existing clientele Risk taking for new discoveries Risk averse Priority setting by peers Priority setting by diplomacy Long-term perspective Time pressure Simplified yet sustainable funding Juste retoura
and alignment of policies and promoting a‘whole-of-government'perspective. Co-ordination-oriented research and innovation policy differs from other policy areas
while recognising the relevance of multiple perspectives in relation to the objectives of different policies. Methodologically, these efforts call for systematic multi-stakeholder processes,
consisting of a small group with an interest in the animal diseases and their future perspectives. The limited size of the group aimed for an active
environmental and transport-related perspective, leading to a strengthened global position in Europe'(Urban Europe, 2011) Determine specific research needs and roadmaps, short-and long-term policy measures,
and secondly to generate more holistic perspectives on the emerging agenda. 4. 1. 2 Modular and structured process for balanced and diverse stakeholder engagement.
While choosing the perspective of embedding foresight in transnational programming rather than providing ad hoc support,
Taking into account the plurality of perspectives on non-knowledge can serve as a basis on
Seen from this perspective, sense-making can be supported partly by defining units of analysis that facilitate the collection of individual observaation and,
for instance may allow new meanings (Nonaka 1994) to be synthesized through the shared development of crosscutting challennges From a methodological perspective, internet-based tools for continuous idea generation (Graefe et al. 2010), idea management
From the process perspective, this type of direct engagemeen in workshops helps expose policy-makers to the diversity of issues at stake.
which were seen to merit attentiio from different perspectives and thus paved way for the formulation of crosscutting challenges. 3. 4 Synthesizing issues A two-day workshop was organized to group the identified issues into crosscutting challenges
Seen from this perspective, the BEPA exercise suggests that although the issues as such may be known, they merit renewed attention
Seen from this perspective, the BEPA Facing the future: Horizon scanning. 229 exercise can also be seen as an example of building an international anticipatory system,
and also for exploring the policy implications of these challenges in collaborative workshoops From this perspective,
and discussed them in a workshop with experts (see Fig. 1). A total of 12 future perspectives were identified for publication
A needs-oriented approach and cross-institute problem-solving should open up new contract research markets in a 3 7 year perspective,
i e. an actual market perspective of 5 10 years. The process had a first top-down part, in
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