The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;
For more than 25 years, scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's and SRI International's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
Senior managers must understand their role (refraining from normal decision-making, judgmental behavior patterns), and junior staff must feel comfortable in expressing themselves.!
scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
and helped to shape the international understanding of the function of technology foresight as having a role in priority setting 2. It remains a key application for large Delphi exercises as witnessed by the recent Chinese survey 3. Foresight is used also to inform
A gradual awareness and general agreement for moving away from one-size-fits-all approaches is giving foresight an enhanced role in policy design tailored to particular context
The role of foresight in such contexts needs both to be enhanced and better understood. An increasing structural focus for foresight exercises is associated not only with broader R&i system reform but also with an engagement with new-wave innovation policies.
We note the emergence of a combination of corrective, disruptive and creative roles. 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
The role of foresight in such contexts needs both to be enhanced and better understood. In the corporate world, the rise of open innovation has emphasised the need for firms to work with their collaborators
and shape the future of their innovation environment 6. Firms are increasingly playing a role in defining innovation policy due to the rise of demand side approaches and the convergence of corporate and structural foresight.
in Section 3 we catalogue the emergence of structural foresight and in Section 4 its growing role as an instrument for aligning actors in innovation.
and to speculate on the future role for foresight in research and innovation policy. 2. The problem with priorities...
and is likely to have increased an role in future programmes. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 246 relevant to end-users (e g. personal computing.
They also play the principal role in the creation and management of portfolios of research projects.
foresight frequently has a structuring role. A distinction may be drawn between structural activities which are intended to build on a thematic or priority-setting approach for example building action networks around the priorities and foresight exercises
Estonia and Malta) with the explicit aim of the eforesee project as being‘‘to examine the potential role of foresight in dealing with the structural changes to the economy that accompany the accession process,
and the series of exercises in the Czech republic 9. On the other hand Havas and Keenan stress the important role that foresight has had in contributing to the realignment of the science system through bringing it to the fore of discussion and highlighting the missing links
Philips and Decathlon) use foresight in a catalytic role to stimulate and enhance their innovation processes by improving communication
It has long been understood that foresight in particular has a role in building shared strategies see Georghiou in 1996:‘‘
As an example of embedded foresight, Brummer et al. indicate three roles for such an application of foresight:(
foresight is instrumental in informing the design and implementation of research and innovation policy with three distinctive roles:
Corrective role addressing deficiencies and systemic failures and policy lock ins. Disruptive role encouraging an emphasis on crisis or breakthrough events
which can completely change the current status quo. Creative role stimulating the conditions whereby new networks and structures can evolve
and grow. The traditional emphasis on production of broad-based priorities lists appears to be more of a historical phenomenon than a permanent feature,
On the other hand the more embedded role as an instrument of articulating structuring and delivering research and innovation policy offers a robust future for these approaches.
, 2007.24 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, The higher education sector and its role in research: status and impact of international future-oriented technology analysis, in:
in order to clarify (i) different roles for foresight in the innovation system and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.§
in order to clarify (i) different roles of foresight in the innovation system and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy and societal developments.
Furthermore, those in charge of the foresight process are likely to benefit from the sharp definition of their role and approach in the management of the process.
both dimensions may play important role in the design and management of a foresight process. 2. 4. Chosen emphasis in stakeholder engagement:
Consensual and informative foresight processes in Asian countries such as Japan5, China6 and Korea, seem to have important role both in enhancing national systems as well as in the international communication.
The outcomes of consensual and instrumental technology foresight activities in Asian countries such as Japan, Korea and China have played increasingly important role in the policy-making process for science & technology and innovation.
The EPIS Annual Monitoring Synthesis Report, The Role of ICTS as Enabler for Energy efficiency, the European Perspectives on Information society (EPIS) project, 11/2008, EUR Number:
and how the roles of various FTA METHODS and tools are seen in terms of knowledge management. It goes on to discuss the implications that follow for FTA design,
An important point stressed in this context is the vital role that third parties can play in interpretation
allocate roles to facilitators and others. This design process applies and often gathers knowledge it may be undertaken with KM objectives firmly in mind,
It leads towards a notion of an extended role for FTA in a world where new forms of governance are growing from the emergence of the combined phenomena of globalisation
'The role of FTA, as it affects human and natural life, has a pivotal role to play in assuring the continuation of human rights, freedom, democracy and privacy, all of
which is threatened through risk, regulation and governance. The relationship between advances in technology and human social development was established during the Enlightenment well before the notion of‘economics'was born as a cultural invention, rather than as a pseudo-objective science.
However, it was probably the use of the fission nuclear weapons to end WORLD WAR II that gave added impetus to the questioning of the role of science and technology in human development.
and has support themodern criticismof the role of S&t in human development. During the Cold war nuclear weapons strategies were emphasised by Herman Kahn
and about the active role that the financial community can play in furthering social causes without suffering financially.
Indexes such as FTSE4GOOD Index, 4 Domini 400 Social Index and Dow jones Sustainability Index played a crucial role in the commercial breakthrough that SRI has seen over the last decades due to the fact that they allow benchmarking between the performance
But what would then be the role of government and industry in developing human capacity and enabling the literacy of citizens at large?
and the role of experimental or local knowledge. Thus issues underlying social reaction to new technologies and the undisclosed ways in which industries take decisions must be resolved.
a new role for FTA The new role this paper suggests for FTA brings with it issues
To sum up, the way forward may be for FTA to recognise that it can play an important role in a complex world in which globalisation
FTA can fulfil its role of supporting actors in society in shaping a common future based on a shared vision among all concerned.
and (iii) principle affiliation/role. The results are analysed in greater detail in the fifth section.
and climate change lead to descent scenarios Ecology Economy 50 Global financial imbalances create national commercial rivalries China's role in international affairs:
and Technology analysis & Strategic management 8. The large number of papers submitted in 2008 is an indication both of the central role the FTA Conference has come to play, principally for European researchers but also increasingly for researchers from around the world,
identify and reduce the impact of‘‘surprises''Build awareness for limits to identify causal relationships Reduce the role of a potentially hazardous development
Quantitative data might well play a role but the main characteristics of these approaches is the way in
Scenario processes and modelling approaches quite often play an important role. In particular for SEA, participatory or consultative methods are used also frequently (see Rauschmayer and Risse, 2005.
defining the role ITS will play in the future road transport system in Europe. In preparation for the action plan, an ex ante impact assessment was conducted to examine the options for action regarding ITS
on their potential role for gaining knowledge that is needed for anticipating unintended effects of policies.
what actions and which actors play key roles After this round the preliminary versions of the result of the scenario process,
Another mention concerning FFRC's input speaks of the role of expert workshops which in the evaluation are thought to be a very effective tool to find the right questions
tracing emerging irreversibilities The basic claim is that a contribution to the understanding of the emergence of technological paths can be expected by understanding the role of emerging irreversibilities in technological development.
9. Expectations have important roles in technological development. Since all involved actors scientists, firms, policy makers have to act under the condition of insufficient information,
The company plays an important role in the development of nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes. 3. 1. Tracing dynamics of expectations The three levels in the framework can be specified in relation to the case.
By striving to play an active role in the 15 The first dedicated technology assessment organisation was the Office of Technology assessment (OTA)( founded in 1972.
Regional governments play a clear role in setting territorial strategies, which take into consideration local interests
an essay on the role of the future in planning practice and education'',Town planning Review, Vol. 56 No. 4, pp. 483-91.
or the continuous expansion of the predominant role of private governance mechanisms or the reinstatement of state-connected institutions and legal regimes.
while emphasizing the role of analysis in tactical and strategic planning (Beck, 2009). Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify
The role of lobbying groups and their attempts to shape laws in their favour is,
and will try to stabilise, naturalise their roles, institutions jostle for positions, where sectors or fields fight for resources
Another important challenge regarding the application of fta to Law concerns the adequate role and use of automated tools of data processing and mining in law making
Through this analysis, the paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing uncertainty
the role of governments or politics as important players in the innovation process has changed. First there is a significant shift away from a direct governmental participation in the innovation process towards a concentration of national governments on the shaping of framework conditions for innovation.
Globalisation has altered the roles and influence of national policies and industries, political paradigms have changed, EU legislation and international competition leave less room for direct governmental activities in many technological fields.
Some reflections on the role that science roadmapping can play for research organisations how the experiences with technology roadmapping in companies or industries can be adapted for our T. Fleischer et al./
the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes Karel Haegeman A k. Matthias Weber b & Totti Könnölä c a European commission, JRC-IPTS, Edificio EXPO.
the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 729-734, DOI:
the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes A series of conferences on future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) has been organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre over the past years.
the FTA Conference Scientific Committee took the stance that FTAHAS a potentially useful role to play in exploring future developments of complex societal systems and in defining effective policy actions, by way of:
Tuomi sees only a limited role for the identification of weak signals in understanding the future,
which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role following Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
They see a key role for FTA APPROACHES and methods in this. How to navigate in a landscape of interrelated innovation systems?
Ahlqvist, Halonen, Eerola, Kivisaari, Kohl, Koivisto, Myllyoja and Wessberg look at the role of research and technology organisations (RTOS),
and opinions on the role of FTA in preparing for Grand challenges. Some common lines of thought seem to emerge around the recognition of fundamental uncertainty
and unpredictability Such notions lead several authors to remind us on the role of FTA to challenge persisting premises on extrapolated futures based on past events.
The role of FTA in responding to Grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy? Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 135 9. Denning, S. 2005.
The appropriate way to categorise the object of study depends on the role it plays in the current social practices.
and the role of users is emphasised, the underlying static and preexisting ontology is still frequently taken for granted.
In contrast to the traditional heroic‘upstream'innovation model, downstream models emphasise the active role of current and future users.
In models that emphasise the role of social practices and social interaction as the key loci of innovation (Engel 1997;
The dominant role of users in the scientific instrument innovation process. Research policy 5, no. 3: 212 39. Von Hippel, E. 1988.
The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices. Management Decision 43, no. 1: 86 101.
which formal methods/techniques play a subsidiary role followingwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
and sometimes interlocking, role of ignorance (Roberts and Armitage 2008; Roberts 2012) and uncertainty in underpinning quantitative and qualitative thought in FTA.
FTA has a strong role to play in businesses achieving successful continuity through offensive and defensive activities.
this role for FTA is discussed further in the next section. 3. Characteristics of FTA as an umbrella activity FTA focuses on the need and potential to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
Managerially, this does not prevent a scenario from performing its two primary roles of integrating ideas in a way aimed to shift entrenched managerial behaviour.
Transformation of quantitative data from science, technology and pseudo-science into information then plays a role, in conjunction with thesteepv constituents,
1989) developed the two-dimensional framework shown in Figure 1. Meredith's notions can help FTA practitioners'position methods to guide their role and use.
and sectors of society probabilistically to express their relevant uncertainties How to deepen dialogue with society How to improve governance Because of the dominant role of subjective opinion,
The role of algorithms in these processes will be crucial and largely unseen but will require deep understanding
The role of computation and of algorithms will become accentuated. Skills in understanding what algorithms do in producing FTA outcoome becomes essential for presentation to the polity for discussion
and acceptance, bringing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 765 a new social role for computation and computers.
People act not only in reaction to the past (socialisattion or present (roles in a social structure),
which would play a leading role in the development of memory chips. The prediction of Moore remained valid with such precision that it has been labelled as Moore's Law,
however, points to the central role that the prediction has been playing in the strategic game between the manufacturers of memory chips (Mackenzie 1990.
and stipulate roles. Rosenberg (1982) argues that expectations about rapid technologicca development may inhibit the development:
and strategies A general assumption is that expectations can play such a big role due to the inherent uncertaiint of technological development (Antonelli 1989).
The role of technological expectations in a mixed model of international diffusion of process innovations:
The neglected role of user innovation during adoption. Research policy 30, no. 5: 819 36. Eames, M.,W. Mcdowall, M. Hodson,
Thompson 1967) have emphasised long the role of the environment as a major source of uncertainty for strategic decision-makers in charge of coping with emerging opportunities and threats.
Scholars and practitioners in the field generally respond to such concern about the reliability of foresight by arguing that its role is not so much to predict the future,
because the role of anticipatory actions is a key issue in literature on strategic management (Ansoff 1991;
Foresight practitioners and scholars generally respond to such criticism by arguing that the role of foresight
Since the late 1990s, foresight activities have played a key role in redefining the company mission, as it focused its value proposition on the‘Sense and Simplicity'concept.
effect uncertainty (e g. role of new Internet service providers), and response uncertainty (e g. partnership with Internet service providers) of‘discontinuous'drivers of change.
which activities play a key role in enabling businesses to access new sources of competitive advantage
and what roles can FTA play as well as how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability?
The proposed management framework and the roles that FTA can play are introduced then comparing networks to complex sympoietic systems.
3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development
Hence, FTA plays a significant role in anticipating and managing disruptive and transformattiv changes and does so by providing spaces for mutual appreciation,
The anticipatory role of FTA allows an inclusive debate of possible and desirable futures and articulation of visions and expectations needed to reach a common goal
Table 2 outlines the main roles that FTA can play within such a framework. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 804 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 2. Contributions of FTA.
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
What role does FTAPLAY in successful continuity while attempting to followwhat a firm believes to be its sustainable development
founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
comply with speed requirements-Individual learning to comply with functional roles-Information improve decisions-Team learning promoted to improve decision-making
individual abilities-Policies support practicces aim to reduce impacts with better use of materials and natural resources-Structured processes/activities-Firm-wide understandiin of activities, roles and responsibilities-Idea
Through its components (foresight, forecasting and technology assessment), FTA has an undeniably arduous role to play.
Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 140 52.
The role of positivity and connectivity in the performance of business teams: A nonlinear dynamics model.
IT and IS) plays a critical role in building and enabling an infrastructure to collect,
The size of a peak and its relative position in the layout provide valuable clues to the role of that group of documents in the overall structure.
The figure also validates the proper roles assigned to each IA. For example MST idealistically should support EP, PP,
which in turn will allow us to take a stronger role in accelerating the development of cutting-edge technology.
and Jávorka (2010,7) assert that RTOS play important roles in the European innovation system and in de facto European research area policies,
e g. integrated service provider Markets for new services and service providers in the field Built capacities for the construction of new integrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new
It also enhanced capacity building for newintegrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new players.
and clarifiedvtt's role in the context of service research. The project had an explicit strategic purpose of initiating a new‘service mind-set'in the organisation.
Case conclusions and lessons learned All the case examples emphasise the roles of partial structural openness
The role of embodied metaphors. Long Range Planning 41, no. 3: 309 25. Kostoff, R. N.,R. Boylan,
Such visualisation of a pathway can play a central role in exploring innovation routes for a potentially disruptive NEST,
Identifying the emerging roles of nanoparticles in biosensors. Journal of Business Chemistry 7, no. 1: 15 30.
Foresight has changed its role according to these changes: it aims to provide an overview of future impacts on our society in broader contexts.
Their main role was to identify key or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science and technology and the expected changes in society.
and technology that would play an important role in drawing up a picture of future society.
this indicates that these areas will play a role as a general-purpose technology or as a source of cutting-edge technology providing ground-level support to the concrete contributions of other technologies.
Given the crucial role of research output in the global competitiveness of countries, in securing employment and in reaching and setting benchmarks of innovation capability,
stakeholders need to be assured of our neutral role as facilitators of the process. However, stakeholders must not get the impression that the facilitator is‘‘on their side''.
The perception of the BMBF as well as the role it should play is reflected also from an external perspective.
Part of the workshop could also be to reflect on possible roles of academia, industry, politics and society and to develop recommendations for further supporting activities.
B a careful selection and engagement of stakeholders considering their potential contribution, their role in developing research policy,
context and methodology 3. 1 Introduction to the case study analysis The presentation and analysis of the case study below is based on my role as part of the research
within several challenges there was also a clear role for social sciences and humanities. For example, with the recent economic difficulties in Ireland clearly vexing participants in the exercise
Gain a broader understanding of creativity and innovation and their role in the application of research within enterprises and more broadly across society Establish better ways of judging
Foresight initiatives play an important role in this process by challenging the research and innovation communities to consider the impacts of changes in conditions, resources and other factors over different time horizons.
ongoing role for FTA in critically evaluating continued support for the allocation of resources within the research and innovation system,
A Strategic View of the European research area, First Report of the European research area Board 2009, European commission, Brussels. European commission DG Research (2010),‘Strengthening the role of European Technology platforms in addressing Europe
and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles.
Through the identification that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil its potential roles
FTA has a potentially useful role to play in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses
Appropriate FTA practices are essential to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. These should follow certain principles to ensure quality in both processes
The role of FTA in this case is to achieve articulation and orchestration of activities 3. Policy-makers are concerned naturally with changes
She explores the role that different types of FTA played in the development of nanotechnology governance in the USA and in Germany.
These include the emergence of more active roles for users and citizens the need for adequate enabling platforms between innovation demand and innovation supply, the need to adopt new innovation formats
FTA clearly has a role in articulating recognised grand challenges and if approached correctly, instead of seeking to manage away uncertainty,
. Keenan, Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci. Public policy 39 (2012) 140 152.10 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
13 P. Shaper-Rinkel, The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology, Technol.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 qualitative) as an imaginative projection of current knowledge in which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role (p. 753.
The initial identification of issues is one of the stages where the involvement of stakeholders is essential as it allows collecting the views of those who will play an active role in the decision-making process supported by FTA.
the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. 24 (8)( 2012) 729 734.22 A. Eerola,
and user experience 1. Technology plays a key role among these three components 2. Before the product strategy is formulated,
Res. 10 (2008) 715 728.31 L. Huang, Z. C. Peng, Y. Guo, A l. Porter, Identifying the emerging roles of nanoparticles in biosensors, J. Bus. Chem
It is absolutely clear that learning has a definitive role in the technological or cultural evolution (we will turn to this aspect
The Roles of Metaphors in Science, University of Illinois Press, 2003.5 P. Corning, Nature's Magic:
These uncertainties play a crucial role and need to be taken into account when analyzing the dynamics of energy transitions
understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207.19 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in:
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011