The prime example being the role of uncertainty in relation to models used in the context of climate change debates.
we analyze several scenario exercises to better understand the role future scenarios can play as a tool for orienting innovation systems.
but it has been shown that differences in the construction of time play a significant role in the construction of meaning about the future (e g. of nanotechnologies 44).
its role is to describe the variety of current techniques that are relevant for this paper.
The future plays the role of the time needed to introduce the necessary changes to comply with the envisaged principles.
Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press 3. DP21 DP21 (2003), Dierlijke Productie & Consumptie in de 21ste eeuw.
Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 11. eforesee Malta L a. Pace,(in press) Strategic planning for the Future:
Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 12.
Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 14.
Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 15.
http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf). 10 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:
The Link Between Future and Strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, New york, 2003.21 M. E. Porter, Competitive advantage, Free Press, New york, 1985.22 G. Ringland, The role of scenarios in strategic foresight, Technol.
The role of interaction in foresight. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 42 42 K. H. Dreborg, Scenarios and structural uncertainty, explorations in the field of sustainable transport, Doctoral thesis, KTH Infrastructure
Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 63 E. Göll, Futur-the research dialogue in Germany, in:
Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 64 A. Geyer, F. Scapolo, European manufacturing in transition the challenge of sustainable development:
The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e
Received 24 july 2011 Received in revised form 7 july 2012 Accepted 3 august 2012 Available online 2 november 2012 This paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
and role of FTA where the focus is not on individual activities, but rather on the longer-term interplay between the organizational settings in both countries and the future-oriented nanotechnology analysis. In countries such as the US and Germany, where FTA on nanotechnology were already underway in the late 1980s,
The paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis played in the development of nanotechnology governance.
2. Analyzing the role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of nanotechnology 2. 1. Nanotechnology: the field, its definition and its governance The Technical Committee 229 on Nanotechnologies of the International Standardization Organization (ISO) issued a definition of nanotechnology in 2010
For its part, the government's role is to improve and accelerate the uptake of technology through funding, education and awareness-raising.
although the role of these processes differs significantly with regard to decision making. The function of these participatory processes can be seen as part of acceptance politics 57 that attempts to increase acceptance of emerging technologies.
and cooperation Globalization and the shift in the role of nation states 58 are important factors driving future-oriented technology analysis.
& Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 mini panels were the emergence of more active roles for users and citizens
Node of change covered Mini panel co-ordinator Visioning approach 1. Citizens role in innovation governance Anders Jacobi Danish Board of Technology,
Software will play an ever-growing role in innovation. More and more innovation steps may become partly
the FTA COMMUNITY eponymously and in practice, takes as its anchor point the role of technology and by implication the conduct and consequences of research and innovation.
In slightly more familiar territory, FTA ACTIVITIES clearly have a role in articulating recognised grand challenges. If approached correctly FTAS,
offering both an opportunity to seek a truly central role in guiding research and innovation activities and a threat or marginalisation or even of partial extinction as traditional bases of support are squeezed themselves or terminated.
(2011) 808 final, 2011 12 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci.
and ambiguity Masculinity Refers to the distribution of roles between the genders, which is a fundamental issue for any society and for
it challenges the role of the history of foresight diffusion and adoption across and within the regions of many countries.
science and technology have played traditionally a less important role in Denmark than in most of the comparable OECD countries.
and internationally recognised role in the political and wider public debate that concerns the potential and consequences of science and technology.
and should play a central role in meeting the thematic challenge or should be useful in other ways.
The national level‘policy foresight'studies showed that foresight can play three different roles:(1) signalling new developments,
other issues and (political) interests start playing a role as well. Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.
futures research appears to play a role in the early phases of the strategic policy processes, agenda setting and (in part) policy preparation.
In many foresight studies, the role of the civil servants was to carry out the foresight study and let the politicians draw the conclusions.
this success factor not only applies to the roles of the initiator and the coordinator, but also to the developers of the future study.
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.
and to combine different methods for engaging numerous participants in diverse roles and with different contributions.
The modular foresight design described in Fig. 2 (Section 3) allowed engagement of numerous participants in different roles and with different kinds of contributions.
The idea of embedding such modularity was adapted from another international exercise 29 where stakeholder participation was also based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process.
) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140
iii) the role of other research actors, and more importantly, the links among universities and those other research players are disregarded often.
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 40 Although in theory, such inclusive processes aim to strengthen the role and input of users into innovation,
By means of‘scripts'and‘intended uses'which are built in by firms and developers in advance the possible representations of users, their mind-sets and roles as e g.,
Their role was to evaluate the ideas in terms of market potential(‘now'and‘in five years),
the actual role and contribution of users is limited often and constrained as the introduction of the future as a component is often insufficient
and Innovation policy (IJFIP) 1 (2004) 4 32.6 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:
Researching the Role of Users in Shaping ICT's, Springer, Dordrecht, 2005.8 E. Von Hippel, Democratizing Innovation, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2005.9 R. Williams, D. Edge, The social shaping of Technology research Policy 25 (1996) 865
the diverse roles of users in innovation processes, in: H. Rohracher (Ed.),User Involvement in Innovation processes.
An Analysis of the Possible Roles of Parliamentary Technology assessment in Innovation policy, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht, 2004.19 K. De Moor, K. Berte, L. De Marez, W. Joseph
Proceedings of the 8th international interactive conference on Interactive TV & Video, ACM, Tampere, Finland,(2010), pp. 15 22.25 E. Von Hippel, The dominant role of users
forecasting and technology assessment can play a number of important roles in linking a firm's strategy to its implementation across the value chain.
a role for the balanced scorecard? Management Decision 44 (2006) 1441 1460.2 M. Beer, R. A. Eisenstat, The silent killers of strategy implementation and learning, MIT Sloan Management Review
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Heidelberg, 2008.40 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science
scope and role. The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size.‘
Indeed, a networked approach to foresight seems to strengthen the various roles of foresight. However, the rooting and openness of foresight activities in the three networks varies significantly.
and their respective roles. In the next section the concept of networked foresight is approached in two ways: first, by investigating the relationship and analogies of innovation management and futures research;
one of the previously listed three roles that corporate foresight should play within a company.
Rohrbeck, Ho lzle and Gemu nden discuss the role of futures research for corporate innovativeness in the form of foresight workshops 8. These workshops are identified as one instrument of Deutsche telekom for embracing the open innovation paradigm
and as an instrument to increase the number of new innovations the second of the key roles described above.
Thus, the project filled the third key role of foresight as described above while clearly embracing the open approach by using outside sources within the corporate innovation process.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 64 investigated in terms of type, scope and foresight role. The goal is to identify
or completely neglect their external role or impose actions that are not in line with sound scientific practice,
They merely reflect the state of each case concerning the planned and actual network orientation concerning futures research activities. 3. 2. 3. Categorizing the networked foresight activities The implementation of the identified networked foresight activities is structured according to the three roles of foresight
and opponent (Table 2). When foresight is implemented to contribute through these three roles 5, expect the ability of the firm to innovate
We reuse these three roles to categorize the individual networked foresight activities in the three cases below.
the network manager had Table 2 The three roles of foresight as described by Rohrbeck
and Gemu nden 5. Foresight role Impact Initiator role Identify new needs Identify emerging technologies Identify competitors'concepts early Strategist role Assess
and reposition of innovation portfolio Provide strategic guidance Identify new business models Consolidate opinions Vision creation Opponent role Challenge basic assumptions Scan for disruptions that could endanger current
Thus, the strategist role as defined by Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5 was filled. Additionally the activities were aiming at identifying new opportunities and needs, i e.,
, filling the initiator role as well. The latter classification was backed not only by the interviewees, but also by the many new innovations that originate from WINN,
The opponent role was addressed ancillary within business case analyses (Fig. 2). Two factors were identified to significantly influence the results of the foresight activities.
and matched to the three roles of foresight. Based on the CIM evaluation and the analyzed foresight activities the following conclusions can be drawn for EICT:
Table 6 The scope of the foresight activities in Rijkswaterstaat and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 1. 1 Inspirational workshops (&) & Contract partners 1. 2 Business modeling
& (&) Contract partners 1. 4 Series of future workshops & (&) Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
(&)= secondary roles of the activity. Fig. 3. Visualization of the EICT concerning openness and network orientation. 8 During the revision of this article a regular strategy meeting took place
and openness. 5. 3. 1. Networked foresight activities In the EIT ICT Labs 10 foresight activities with varying roles
and to a lesser degree competitors'concepts at an early stage (initiator role of foresight). Several instruments consolidate opinions
and to scan for disruptions (opponent role of foresight). In Table 8 the foresight activities are matched to the three roles defined by Rohrbeck and Gemu nden 5. Additionally,
the scope (contributors and beneficiaries) is shown. Based on the CIM evaluation and the futures research activity analysis the following conclusions can be drawn for the EIT ICT Labs:
Table 7 The scope of the foresight activities in the EICT and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 2. 1 Future studies & (&) Open (organizations and end-users) 2. 2 Business field exploration
& (&) Contract partners 2. 7 Networking on demand & Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
(&)= secondary roles of the activity. P. van der Duin et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 74 3. Some networked foresight activities, e g.,
and foresight role are shown on a grid for each case. Additionally, the shape of the boxes represents the type of activity in the sense of long-term program,
The emphasis of WINN activities is on the strategist role of foresight: first, to assess
and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
Activity Initiator role Strategist role Opponent role Scope 3. 1 Action lines (&) & Closed network 3. 2 Experience and living labs & (&) Open
3. 9 Best-practice benchmarking & Open (organizations) 3. 10 Business developer program & (&) Closed network &=Primary role of the activity,
(&)= secondary roles of the activity. Fig. 4. Visualization of the EIT ICT Labs concerning openness and networks for futures research activities.
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 75 the network of constant network partners or on a contractual basis. The strategic role of foresight for the corporate strategy of the partners is the focus of attention.
Thus, although the activities belong to the strategist role of foresight, they initiate, consolidate and evaluate new ideas, technologies, etc. as well.
Furthermore, when considering the secondary goals of the various activities it becomes apparent that the opponent role is of great importance within the EIT ICT Labs as well.
scope and role of each activity. The scope comprises contributors and beneficiaries, ranging from individual organizations to networks of organizations and end-users.
The role refers to three known roles that foresight plays: the initiator, strategist and opponent role.
Fig. 5. Foresight activities from the cases matched to foresight roles, scope and type of activity.
P. van der Duin et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 76 In the literature review two paths that indicate networked foresight as the next generation of futures research were identified:
The smaller networks of RWS and EICT concentrate on foresight with a focus on strategic implications, ideation or initiation of new business activities thus the strategist and initiator roles of foresight. 9 In contrast,
the opposition role of foresight is strengthened in the large network of the EIT ICT Labs. This appears to be explicable with the inevitably added new perspectives and consolidation of unconnected information through the network.
In contrast, the role of foresight is limited not. On the contrary, foresight that serves all three roles is facilitated
when conducted in the networks. It should be noted that this article is based on data from three cases.
its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm, Technological forecasting and Social Change 78 (2009) 231 243.6 H. Chesbrough, Open innovation:
and Profiting from Technology, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 2003.7 M. Dodgson, D. Gann, A. Salter, The role of technology in the shift towards open innovation:
Fakulta t fu r Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Rheinisch-Westfa lische Technische Hochschule, Aachen, 2004p.409.9 In the context of innovation networks, the allocation of two aspects of the strategist role
optimizing description and generalizability, Educational Research 12 (1987) 14 19.47 A j. Berkhout, The Dynamic Role of Knowledge in Innovation.
identifying its different possible roles for policy and decision-making. It then formulaate a set of general recommendations with the intentiio of improving the policy impact of fta.
and of the new roles for innovation in the global knowledge economy. Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
meaning they may play a useful role in informing research agenda settiing In the case of The netherlands and the UK,
To complement their increasingly acknowleddge role in persuading policy and research teams to think more broadly openly and strategically,
but could also serve as a platform for exchanging experiennc and addressing methodological questions relevaan to horizon scanning such as the role of values (prevention of biases),
and web-bots for informmatio gathering these approaches will play an important role in the blue sky projects that have alreead been mentioned in this paper.
adaptive in terms of stressing the need to adapt to changing contextual developmeent (as opposed to stressing the ability to shape the future), in terms of assigning iterative monitoring and learning a central role in foresight,
and where creativity and culture play an important role. This led to the selection of music
looking at the role of the various actors in the value chain (e g. publishers, retaai etc.),
like the role of digitisation, intellectuua property rights (IPRS) or channel diversification. This provided a general framework
but further analysis was required to assess the role and impact of technology trends and user behaviour.
In particular the following elements were deemed to play a fundamental role in shaping the creative content industries of tomorrow:
and the role of ICT as enablers for ubiquitous creativity. Although they share the same basic assumptions,
However, depending on the creative conteen sub-sector the stakeholders represented and their role and relative position on these sub-sectors,
For instance, the role of incumbents compared to that of user-based communities is seen differently by different stakeholders.
Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Prof W Edward Steinmueller, Dr Aldo Geuna and Juan Mateos-Garcia from SPRU (University of Susseex UK) for their key role in the EPIS
Buetschi and Nentwich (2000) identified several context or foundational success factors for influencing the political role of participatoor technology assessment (see Table 3). These studies tell us that FTA EXERCISES should not be viewed independently of their contexts
innovations implemented and legislation adopted Table 3. Success factors influencing the political role of participatory technology assessment Societal Institutional Process properties Good timing
with Canada playing a prominent role as a strategic partner and project advisor. This center is hosted by Thailand's National science & Technology development Agency (NSTDA.
The role of PTA in the policy making process, EUROPTA Final Report. Copenhagen: Danish Board of Technology.
For examplle recognition of the role of information technology (IT) provides a powerful driver of change in approaache to biosecurity
The role of technoloog convergence as the key to success in developing the technologies was confirmed further.
there are links between all of the technology domains as shown earlier in Figure 4. To better illustrate the specific roles that technoloogie can contribute in combating EIDS
Diagnosis plays a critical role in the treatment of disease and in developing response strategies.
In some cases diagnoosti technology also plays a crucial role in the prevention of spread. Policy implications With strong user inputs in scientific and managemeen issues, the foresight project appears to have high potential to inspire
but rather different technologies will play different roles and interact in a particular value chain,
which the different technoloogie have roles in enhancing biosecurity and preparedness for EID. With a clearer context of:
This project is a contribution to the better understanndin of the provision of accelerated technologicca responses to combating EID and biosecurity in the APEC region and of the role of S&t in providiin those responses through the concept of convergiin technologies.
2006), influenced by the altered role of the technology user as an important stakeholder. Confronted with almost unlimited choices,
the latter acknowledge the crucial role of users in the innovation process (Rickards, 2003; Trott, 2003; Von Hippel, 1986;
User-driven innovation In this new context, the notion of user-led or userdriive innovation has assumed a prominent role.
social sciences) and reinforces the role of policy-makers in the establishment of innovative experimentation and co-creation platforms.
the substantial involvement of the inhabitants of Hasselt in their local community, the role of existing local news initiatives, the presence of a community of city reporters and the agenda of one of the industriia partners,
Researching the role of users in shaping ICTS. Dordrecht, The netherlands: Springer verlag. Hansson, E 2006. Understanding User-Driven innovation.
In Everyday Innovatoors Researching the Role of Users in Shaping I's, L Haddon, E Mante, B Sapio, K-H Kommonen, L Fortunati and A Kant (eds.
2001) for the role of framework conditions for the evaluation of industry university collaboratioons and Polt and Streicher (2005) for the evaluation of large programmes such as the Framework programmes of the Europeea Union. 2. For overviews of Swiss
the role of framework conditions. Science and Public policy, 28 (4), 247 258. Polt, W and G Streicher 2005.
The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70 (1), 41 55.
The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy? Mark Boden1,,
what is the possibility and role of innovation, and what are the key policy messages.
Cagnin, Amanatidou and Keenan address the roles that FTA can play in orienting the innovation system to more effectively address the grand challenges.
Cutler, Marks, Meylan, Smith and Koivisto take the view that science will play a key role in society's response to emergent global grand challenges such as resource scarcity and global environmental change.
Keenan et al. report on the application of fta by the International council for science when consideerin its most appropriate role in this new situation.
and the roles that science, including the social and human sciences, could play in addressing future global grand challenges.
and its role in assisting in aligning technologgica and societal perspectives with the more visionary framework necessary to address grand challenges.
and the role that FTA can play in helping to address the inherent complexity. Drawing on evidence from three cases on foresight processes in research programming
Case study evidence is a core The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 137 feature of every FTA conference.
The paper emphasises the role of intangible values and‘out-off-the-box'thinking in order to attain success. In summary, such complex and pressing issues as:
The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 139
Challenges in communicating the outcomes of a foresight study to advise decision-makers on policy and strategy Claudio Chauke Nehme1, 2,,
Its role is to guide staff in charge of planning and conducting foresight exerciise according to the CGEE's values and institutional mission (Santos et al. 2004).
FINEP's strategic management plan was developed in 17 months, in an intense and challenging process of looking into the future of the agency and its role in the national ST&I system.
FINEP's nature, role and strategic main line of activities were to be preserved..FINEP was an important stakeholder in the Brazilian ST&I system,
which provided a clearer vision of the internatioona context of ST&I development and the role of funding agencies.
allowed for shared commitments between the relevant players to facilitate the construction of a future vision and roles for FINEP in the national ST&I system.
and on FINEP's role in this context. Among several other possibilities, there were a few aspects of the process
The Ministry of S&t (MOST) plays a key role both through its responsibility for formulating S&t policy for example in the Medium and Long-term Plan and in the five-year plans for S&t development and as a key dispenser of research funds (Springut et al. 2011.
Finally, provincial governments and S&t offices play an increasingly important role in setting priorities for industrria development
while key technology programs play the role of supporting economic development, oriented to priority fields and themes identified in the MLP.
The role of experts, public consultation and debate Once the decision is taken that something should be done,
Scientific experts play an important role in anchoorin important policies and in providing expertise on thematic choices
The marginal role of industry, particularly privately owned enterprrises as a stakeholder is another weakness in the policy process.
Lv, W. 2007)‘ Enhancing the basic role of knowledge innovattio in the innovation system',China Development Review, 9: 38 47.
play an essential role in shaping and fosteriin the development of an innovation system, in this paper we will pay special attention to the role of national institutions in the development of new innovation systems.
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 271 281 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs008 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012.
as well as their analysis of the role of national institutions in the development of an innovaatio system.
The national government plays an essential role in establishing national institutions. To sum up, an NSTIS, as the three innovation systems, is composed of actors and networks, technology and knowledge,
The main role of universities until the end of the 1980s was to train qualified pharmacists.
The public research organizations play an intermediary role between universities and pharmaceutical companies. Since the universities were supposed not to directly interact with firms, the Development Centre of Biotechnology (DCB),
which played supplementary roles in the innovation of seeds. These companies usually focused on specific types of seeds
Moreover, throughout Taiwanese agricultural history, MNCS such as Monsanto, have not played any role in seed innovation in Taiwan. 3. 2. 2 Universities and their networks.
which played an intermediary role between the universities and pharmaceutical companies. However, in the agricultuura biotechnology innovation system the public research organizations, the ASS, were the foundations on
Local private agricultural SMES only played a supplementary role in innovation and targeted those products
Giesecke, S. 2000)‘ The contrasting roles of government in the development of biotechnology industry in the US and Germany',Research policy, 29: 205 23.
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