For example, in the multifocal model of Tuomi (2002), new technical functionalities and propensities are thrown in effect from the‘upstream'to a‘downstream'field of interacting social practices,
FTA's premises and principles ought to draw on those fields. Instead FTA seems to draw extensively on
by deferring to notions of philosophy and theory in a field where practical outcomes, based on learning;
Every field of expertise tends to have its own language: the success of expert elicitation will then depend crucially on the mental‘handshaking'between the interviewee and interviewer,
These new fields have commercial cum sociopolitical implications not in individual silos but interdependently and globally.
Each new field has its own language to be learnt. There is spill over into the fast moving fields of investment and money,
where invention and innovation move at an alarming pace. The contrast to the inexorable, but slower pace of ecological change is stark,
It was in that field that Meredith et al. 1989) developed the two-dimensional framework shown in Figure 1. Meredith's notions can help FTA practitioners'position methods to guide their role and use.
Descriptive modelling Logical positivist Empiricist Field studies Field experiments Structured interviewing Surveys Prototyping Physical modelling Laboratory experimentation Interpretive Action research Case studies Historical analysis
in it, the interviewees were asked to respond to a set of questions in his/her topic field the responses to whichwould enable a probability distribution to be constructed representing their opinion regarding the topic of the interview.
the assessing ability test was repeated this time using questions drawn from the interviewees'field of expertise.
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon Foresight methodologies and their implementation in science, technology and social fields.
Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303.
Tailoring foresight to field specificities. Futures 43, no. 3: 232 42. Schot, J, . and A. Rip. 1996.
The wide interest in foresight seems to be confirmed by the growing number of consulting companies and networks in the field. 1 On the other hand,
Scholars and practitioners in the field generally respond to such concern about the reliability of foresight by arguing that its role is not so much to predict the future,
as macro trends in the global environment are translated down into priorities for action in specific innovation fields.
glazing, and heat storage fields. Similarly, scenarios capture complexity through a multilevel hierarchy at Daimler,
where a specific research unit (an‘Innovation Field')has been established for each of the company business segments.
The main task of each Innovation Field is to elaborate a‘Picture of the Future'for its target segment
Discussion Our work relates to several fields of research in strategy and organisation. First, we define the concepts of‘boundary'uncertainty
and Phd graduates. 3. Roadmaps consist of representations of interconnected nodes of major changes and events in some selected fields of the external environment, such as science, technology, and markets.
His main research fields are foresight methodologies and strategic management of technology and innovation. He has presented on these themes at international conferences
Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303.
and mapping between fields from different data sources Calls (RFP) New proposals Continuation proposals Project reports Publications U s. DOE LDRD data ID number ID
(or other fields) that comprise that peak, thus revealing the content of the various peaks.
coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,
and indeed the entire activity field of organisations, has been conceptualised as relational practices, that is, as activities realised in relation to impulses stemming from users, other organisations,
For example, the long term in the context of a highly dynamic field, such as mobile Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and communication technology (ICT), differs vastly from the long term of a highly inert field, such as transportation infrastructure.
R&d perspective on a single technology or object Roadmapping single technologies from a certain perspective Enhancing organisational capacities in a certain technology field Building vision
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Technology Exercise covered the field of building services with an explicit focus on the future possibilities,
e g. integrated service provider Markets for new services and service providers in the field Built capacities for the construction of new integrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new
Service research is an emerging field of research requiring cooperation across disciplines and the varied lines of business.
During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.
potential collaborators such as universities, funding agencies and the societal actors in the field of service science (Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
The project defined the emerging field of service research and its future possibilities, and clarifiedvtt's role in the context of service research.
It identified the most important players in the field of service research internally and externally
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Exercise defined the emerging field of service research
and vision for the future Social/actor Identification of most important players in the field of service research internally and externally Capacities and methods for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally,
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
and securing the continuation of the developmental activities in the field. The temporal span of the roadmap was about 10 years, until the 2020s.
The first aspect was about building new client-oriented and environmentally sustainable practices in the field
for example, through the application of life cycle analysis. The second aspect was to open the field towards more efficient use of ICTS in the processes, such as solutions for distance-based monitoring, the use of building information models,
the construction machinery field should partake in the processes of the clients in new ways and seek long-lasting partnerships.
the key ideas accentuated the need to build a new kind of serviceorieente operation culture in a field that is considered quite conservative by the actors.
but also on the potential future employees in the field. Visionary ideas about technology-enabled services could also be one way to stimulate Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and environmentally sustainable practices in the field Capacities to understand and take part in the processes of the clients Building thematic roadmaps on four project themes:(
and (4) internationality Opening the field towards the efficient use of ICTS Fostering abilities to build long-lasting partnerships with the clients Using prospective argumentatiio to endorse the strategic aims From intense price competittio
towards integrated service packages Visionary Forming a new kind of service-oriented culture in a rather conservative field Fostering structural adaptabiliit for the adoption of new kinds of practices Building explicit visions in roadmap themes:(
and technology-enabled services in the field Constructing a horizontal anticipatory agency, especially through novel technology and services concepts Endorsing education
and international influences in the field Making visionary timelines for the adoption of new solutions Envisioning development projects based on the results this aspired culture.
In addition, the field of construction machinery should actively endorse a kind of horizontal anticipatory agency, for example, through novel technology and services concepts,
The systemic orientation was visible in the‘Russian doll'style of layered project structuure the project operated simultaneously on the layer of separate ICT applications, on the layer of ICT adoption in four fields (the experience
the boundaries of the technological field were defined. The second phase, the SWOT analysis, identified trends in the national ICT business and research environment in the four Nordic countries.
and the construction machinery roadmapwas about finding newbusiness directions in the network of actors in the field.
He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,
His other fields of expertise concern (i) organisational development enabled by new communicational methods and (ii) marketing issues of environmental technologies.
This can also uncover discoveries in adjacent fields and new tools that might be adapted to one's purposes.
which they appear overlaid on a base map of science. 3 This illustrates that global DSSC research involves an extensive range of research fields concentrated in the Materials Science and Chemistry macro-disciplines.
This analyssi contributes to an understanding of the fields involved, which is necessary to identify technical experts.
4. 3. Profile innovation actors and activities (Step D) Since 2009, WOS has been providing a funding acknowledgement field as it indexes publications.
and AIST, only 4. Examination of the research emphases of such leading players can provide intelligence on where the field is heading.
Gratzel and colleagues continue to lead the field. 5. Table 2 does not include the full updated information through 2009 and 2010.
Measuring and mapping six research fields over time. Scientometrics 81, no. 3: 719 45. Porter, A l.,J. Youtie, P. Shapira,
Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 1: 287 303.
In this situation, the idea of placing special focus on particular fields has to be phased out, while the following themes will be central in discussions in the days to come:
Converging technologies, collaboration or fusion of several fields (nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science) have been given attention since the mid-2000s.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 7 Scenario requires extensive knowledge of the field under investigation,
panels consisted of experts in some related fields. The scopes and main focuses of the discussion were determined by panel members,
and cross-cultural cooperative management 11-C Service management, management in the education and research field, environment business management, governmental institution management 11-D Framework for facilitation
and the extent of relation to scenario themes depends on scientific or technological fields. This reflects complexity of the relationship between scientific
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2009),‘Emerging fields in science and technology for the 4th Science and Technology Basic Plan'',Research Material No. 168, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo.
In a heterogeneous field of stakeholders, contrarian interests and different value propositions might be encountered. Therefore, it is essential to create an atmosphere of mutual understanding where different perspectives are being honored amongst the stakeholders involved.
Bringing in outside expertise Step 3 widens the field of exploration and brings in expertise on the subject matter from outside the ministry.
Furthermore, relevant activities in the field are mapped, such as pilot projects, existing networks and stakeholders in an international context.
Within the implementation of this foresight study it was realised that S&t priorities should be complemented by innovative priorities for corresponding development of the Russian management system in the field of natural resources,
and possible innovation projects for the most important S&t fields. The National S&t Foresight: 2030 was based on the FS1 results and also on a renewed version of the National S&t priorities and Critical technologies.
assessment of productivity of oil fields; techniques to monitor oil and gas fields, identifying possible ore-bearing,
oil-and gas-saturated zones 95.7 2018 Improving positions on international markets (78.1 percent) Contributing to dealing with social problems (25 percent) Technologies for environmentally safe mining
Thus, the major development areas relating to the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''field for the period until 2030 were described in the course of the exercise
. Introduction Foresight and competitive intelligence (CI) are two fields that seek to address future-oriented environmental scanning (Calof and Smith, 2010.
which 628 subclasses are aggregated into 35 technological fields, as also proposed by WIPO. Descriptions of the 35 classification fields and their corresponding code numbers are listed in Table III.
In addition, Table IV shows part of the WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table utilized during Step 6. After each Delphi topic is mapped to the IPC code
and aggregated to the WIPO technology field, the linkage or interaction between the technologies can be demonstrated by a matrix table,
Table IV Examples of WIPO IPC technology concordance table Field IPC codes 1. Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy F21#,H01b, H01c, H01f
and identifying a broad field implicitly include the shaping of the field and its governance structure by including
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon foresight methodologies and their implementation in socioeconomic and technological fields at the supranational, national, regional and sectoral levels. 385 C. Cagnin et al./
In particular this paper describes the methodological state of the field through a tripartite taxonomy of increasing levels of qualitative and quantitative integration.
as well as on the reasons why, such combination, within the FTA COMMUNITY, seems to proceed at a lower rate than in other fields.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 identification of emerging clusters analysing citations and keywords for a particular technology field,
short-term/long-term As the examples provided in Sections 2 and 3 suggest that methodological integration can be promising and beneficial to the field,
which can also be applied in the field of FTA: perceptions on the expectations of different audiences, methodological preferences of the (mixed methods) researcher, structure of the research project, different timelines for different method types, skill specialisms, the nature of the data, ontological differences,
Much can also be learnt from the experience that the field of foresight has developed in dialogue and communication in support of building trust amongst stakeholders.
In trying to push forward the field of FTA towards methodological integration, this paper has explored possible barriers hampering such development,
and holds a Phd from the London School of economics and Political science in the field of Economic geography.
He contributed to several ex-ante and ex-post Impact assessment studies of FP programmes and activities in the fields of Environment, Bio-based economy and Socioeconomic sciences and humanities.
The number of IPC codes represents howmany fields are involved in the development of a technology.
TFT-LCD or display fields were asked to give the time periods of four stages for TFT-LCD and CRT.
For TFT-LCD, the search terms are thin film transistor*liquid crystal display*in all fields. Using abbreviations TFT
which is used commonly in pattern recognition and some other fields, to process the 13-D data by calculating the nearest distance among the test point
Recognition of this fact in last decades is leading firmly to a new scientific paradigm, a complex bio-socioeconomics, with the convergence of different fields of science toward
The fields of evolutionary computation and artificial life have reached a stage of some maturity and we are witnessing today an intense debate on duniversal Darwinismt as a broad theoretical framework for the analysis of the evolution of all open,
and the integration of the field discussed in the above referred paper 1 (not to mention the umbrella concept of TFA recently adopted!).
tales from the frontier (new methods for TFA) and importing ideas (methods and tools adopted from other fields), respectively.
Although recognizing that the fields of evolutionary computation and artificial life are still emerging sciences, some important modeling attempts were undertaken along with the last decades and
with the convergence of different fields of science toward what may be the clue to understand the modus operandi of devolutiont per se the development of evolutionary algorithms for many different problem-solving and/or theoretical applications.
The fields of evolutionary computation and artificial life have reached a stage of some maturity and we are witnessing today an intense debate on duniversal Darwinismt as a broad theoretical framework for the analysis of the evolution of all open,
when we focus the evolutionary analysis on technological innovations we are not necessarily simplifying the field of discussion,
and using simulation methods in this field. Among the reasons for this lack of practical-oriented works we have referred to:
the fact that the fields of evolutionary computation and artificial life, despite of some maturity as source of efficient heuristic tools to solve complex problems,
The other approach forms the new sub-field of bartificial Lifeq (AL, for short) that uses so-called dsoft computingt models of complex adaptive systems (CAS) that encompasses several methods of simulation
This is a new and emergent scientific branch that is finding increasing application in a wide range of fields, from the physical sciences, to life sciences and to social sciences.
For a review on this field I suggest the reading of two recent review articles 29,30,
They claim to have reproduced din silicot 15 previously patented inventions in the field of electronics (6 of them patented after January 2000)
As a first step toward a research agenda for future development of TFA I propose the realization of an international seminar in this field (Evolutionary theory of technological change) bringing together specialists in evolutionary model building and digital Darwinism to discuss the existing approaches
toward integration of the fields and new methods, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (2004) 287 303.2 H. A. Linstone, TF and SC:
Early applications of adaptive policies are also found in the field of environmental management 30,31,
toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (2004) 287 303.18 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro, Scenario planning in public policy:
The various fields covered by the umbrella term FTA have at their disposal a wide variety of methods, techniques, and approaches.
and analysis Various scientific fields including the environmental sciences, transportation research, economics, and the political sciences, are involved in providing model-based decision support.
In these various fields, people are grappling with the treatment of deep and irreducible uncertainty
A common theme across these fields appears to be a shift away from predictive model use towards more explorative model use 6
There is an emerging field that studies the clustering of time series data. A wide variety of methods and techniques are being explored 34.
towards integration of the field and new methods, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 71 (2004) 287 303.2 D. Jamieson, Prediction in society, in:
T. H. Moon (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 19 E. Alonso, J. Gregory, F. Field
and Health technical committee of the European Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical research (Cost.
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
Developing and using scenarios can be considered a field of applied research, i e. where particular methods are applied to‘solve'particular puzzles.
Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 42 42 K. H. Dreborg, Scenarios and structural uncertainty, explorations in the field of sustainable transport, Doctoral thesis, KTH Infrastructure
His field of interest is socio-technological aspects such as uncertainty ethics and sustainability, of emerging technologies mainly inside agriculture, food production, biotechnology and bioenergy.
and technology forecasting to define the field and to explore what could happen in general. Participatory formats such as dialogues on ethical
In the case of nanotechnology, a variety of FTA ACTIVITIES have been in use over the last quarter of a century to structure the field itself
and to establish governance structures in the field of nanotechnology. Compared with other countries, the US and Germany started assessing the status and future trends in the area of nanotechnology early on 5,
the field, its definition and its governance The Technical Committee 229 on Nanotechnologies of the International Standardization Organization (ISO) issued a definition of nanotechnology in 2010
and as the field called nanotechnology. Many studies in the field of science and technology studies (STS) have shown that nanotechnology is as much a political as a cultural phenomenon 11 14.
Visions, roadmaps, and visionary policy documents have been a main source for analyzing the social and political dimensions of nanotechnology in the broad range of STS,
Early and radical visions that shaped the field in the late 1980s were published by individual thinkers 17,18.
In the 1990s, studies mapping the field and technology assessment studies included actors and knowledge mainly from science and industry 1, 19 22.
though they seem to be very different phenomena with regard to the funding and policy dynamics in the fields.
The main difference is that in the field of nanotechnology the funding strategies were implemented before broader public discourses emerged,
whereas in the field of converging technologies broad futuristic discourses took place that were followed not by funding strategies dedicated explicitly to converging technologies. 445 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting
The studies brought together science and technology assessment of different fields of what would then be called nanoscale science and technology.
and Russia were used to gather additional information for worldwide studies in the field of nanostructure science and technologies 37.
and instead focus on Feynman as the genius behind the origins of the field 11 (C. Selin, Expectations and the emergence of nanotechnology, science, technology & human values,(2007) 196 220).
The report included insights from US experts in the field, examinations of lessons learned, and integrated international perspectives collected through multinational workshops held in the US, Europe and Asia.
The BMBF commissioned several forecasting studies on nanotechnology-related fields starting in the early 1990s.
the aim of these forecasting exercises was to identify new and promising fields for research funding, to deliver a sound and broad information basis for funding decisions in these research fields
and to prepare these issues for funding activities 48. The results of the forecasting exercises were published in technology analyses,
or sub-field, documenting its potential prospects from the perspective of various sectors of industry,
and future market assessment were used to identify the promising areas of the field and to assess the market potentials of future nano-applications.
, University of Münster, Technische Hochschule Aachen) participated first in defining the field and then received public funding later.
One of the recommendations published in the Nanokommission's final report in 2011 is that the German federal government should establish a national cross-departmental internet platform providing information on developments and activities in the field of nanotechnologies 51.
and this institutional fragmentation can also be observed with regard to the governance of science, technology and innovation in the field of nanotechnology. 4. Comparing the US and Germany 4. 1. Timing and intervention Between the late 1980s and the late 1990s,
FTA aimed mainly at assessing the potential of the field known today as nanotechnology. Several industrial countries established their first programs in that field in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
But only in the end of the 1990s were disconnected the formerly fields of nanoscale science and engineering brought together under the broader umbrella definition of nanotechnology.
FTA ACTIVITIES were used in this early stage to facilitate a common understanding, develop visions, build up policy networks, as well as shape and prepare funding programs.
and conclusion FTA ACTIVITIES were used to shape the emerging field of nanotechnology in the early stages (priority-setting
the field later called nanotechnology. Expert-driven FTA ACTIVITIES were used in the first stages to build a common understanding
These early activities brought together the formerly unconnected fields of nanoscale science and engineering under a broad definition of nanotechnology and served as the foundation in developing long-term R&d visions and strategies.
and not to shape the field. Nonetheless, these activities contributed to forming the field and shaping the expectations.
In both countries, early FTA envisioned innovative future nanotechnologies but did not provide guidance either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation to address grand societal challenges.
and identifying a broad field implicitly includes the shaping of the field and its governance structure by including
In the last two decades, FTA ACTIVITIES were important means for integrating the field and in spreading the idea that nanotechnology would become one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century.
toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 71 (2004) 287 303.31 A. Rip, Futures of ELSA, Sci.
Their visibility is characteristically low 22 p. 4. The definition included uptake of newways of doing innovation in fields where they were previously unknown
and has influenced largely the practice of the field. Studies have indicated that the principal applications of FTA have been in supporting priority-setting and in the analysis and articulation of the potential of future technologies 9
contrary to earlier conclusion that FTA functions most effectively when it is tailored to the requirements of a field
not because of a lack of methods the field is rich with them but because there is a lack of agreement as to
Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US
T. Konnola, P. Warnke, R. Barré, S. Kuhlmann, Tailoring foresight to field specificities, Futures 43 (April 3 2011) 232 242.14 M. Weber
Furthermore, the editors of this Special issue, each from their own vantage point, have been following the evolution of the disparate fields brought together by FTA over the years.
to be confused and fragmented perspectives across the field. All of which threatens to undermine the credibility and relevance of anticipatory thinking for decision-making.
FTA is clearly a diverse and inventive field, able to serve a wide array of decisionmakkin process.
in order to‘prepare the field'.'According to Da Costa et al. it is very important to position foresight studies within the complex process of building
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