and monitoring of complex dynamic systems and may enable organizations to use long-term visions to effectively link strategy and operations across the whole value chain.
future-intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions'.
The aim was to meet this challenge by developing a vision and a strategy for transforming Denmark into a leading growth, knowledge and entrepreneurial society.
17), that was developed for the first and second Limburg environment plan (covering a long term vision
and underpin new policies and visions. This motive is defined by Da Costa et al. 25 as the function of‘informing policy':
'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,
to build argumentation for a long term policy vision and policy strategies innovating (policy preparation phase): to gather inspiration for innovative policy visions and policy strategies testing policies (policy preparation phase:
to gain insight into how future-proof and future-oriented policies really are evaluating policies (after implementation:
P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 21 When the main motive for using foresight methods is not necessarily a desire to realise a concrete policy end-product (such as an agenda, vision or strategy),
For example, combining insights from a future analysis with the development of a policy vision and various strategies was seen as a sluggish process.
Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,
This should be built upon a collective vision, which considers the views and actions of involved individuals and their institutions,
Moreover, the authors'claim that a collective vision should be shaped by building upon individual views actions and interactions with larger institutional structures. 2. 2. Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Diversity among global participants and their differing constituencies set a coordination challenge that calls for responsiveness towards all
visions and value networks. 2 This was the departure point in designing the first questionnaire in the IMS2020 project as described in Section 3. 3 Contractor
The innovation roadmaps 24 highlight the main milestones of innovation activities (i e. research and development, management and policy actions) which are needed to achieve a desired vision.
Based on these the IMS2020 Vision was defined. The final roadmaps were designed towards such Joint Vision. 3. 1. State of the art
and expectations To kickoff the project-design together with consortia partners most of the initial debate centred on methodological aspects.
The meetings conducted during crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the definition of a common vision for the roadmapping work.
T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations
and to allow partners to think freely without trying to connect these possible states of the future with the desired IMS2020 vision,
8. Discussing the above findings in a vision building workshop to define the main characteristics
or behaviours that should constitute the IMS2020 vision; 9. Circulating both the developed snapshots and the IMS2020 vision to all project partners
and the roadmapping support group for final refinements and to ensure that it encompasses all IMS regions.
The results of this exercise were used then as an input for the development of the IMS2020 Vision during a vision building workshop,
and somewhat likely to happen by 2020 (likelihood>2). Based on the results of the vision building workshop a first draft of the IMS2020 Vision was developed by JRC-IPTS.
The final IMS2020 Joint Vision is based on inputs from the mapping activity the first online survey, industrial workshops,
industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
which have been judged to be instrumental for the realisation of the defined vision 25. These topics have been shared
or benefits that they could deliver in a timeline towards the IMS2020 Joint Vision (see Fig. 4 below).
but equally important in attaining the IMS2020 Vision. To support shaping and refining robust and attainable RTS
and RAS the IMS2020 Vision was translated into SMART (i e. Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely) objectives for each KAT. 8 3. 4. Results and dissemination One of the main strengths of the project stemmed from the amount of support
The devised Joint Vision and roadmaps, which include the milestones of innovation activities identified, was open for wide consultation in the IMS region and beyond through a wiki platform.
and a common vision amongst the stakeholders taking part in the exercise. This generated momentum for shaping globally the intelligent manufacturing industry of the future 27.
to enable the IMS2020 Vision to become a reality. Ultimately it is hoped that once the findings of this project are put into practice it will help EU manufacturing systems to flourish sustainably. 9 4. 2. Responsiveness towards diverse languages
and cultures The most critical stage during the project was the scenario and vision building.
This is because none of the partners beyond JRC-IPTS were acquainted with foresight and the alternative processes for building scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps.
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
to identify key elements for the joint vision Multiple approaches to develop scenarios Online elaboration of scenarios
and the vision supported wider engagement Inclusion of diverse stakeholder interests supporting the definition of the relevant vision Inclusion of diverse perspectives
in the vision building Roadmaps Stocktaking of the results from other phases Inclusion of multiple dimensions in roadmapping frame Intensive online panel work Cross feeding among different roadmaps to coordinate
The meetings were dedicated to the crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the common definition of the vision for the roadmapping work.
Such flexibility was very important during the scenario and vision building processes. In both cases meetings not initially planned were scheduled with selected partners
As mentioned, the scenario and vision building process required considerable behaviour and expectation management. In the first scenario building workshop a discussion of how scenarios could be deployed
and stakeholders the second planned workshop was devoted to develop a common vision. Here, although JRC-IPTS was facilitating and giving direction to the discussions,
such as the one mentioned for developing scenarios and a shared vision. As for results, these have been adapted for use by the European commission
At the same time, the way in which the scenarios, the shared vision, and the final roadmaps were presented made it possible for reach out to both the research
The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
Milano, March 2010.26 C. Cagnin, Scenarios Snapshots and IMS2020 Vision. Deliverable D2. 2. of IMS2020, Project Number 233469,2009. 27 A. Rolstadas, IMS2020 roadmap for sustainable manufacturing research, in:
and vary from concerns with the take-up of FTA knowledge in policy and decision processes, through to organisational vision-building,
The paper describes the embedded foresight process implemented to achieve a shared vision-building among different stakeholders, and the shaping of new research and technology development networks in European-wide innovation policy coordination.
These include horizon scanning (e g. of weak signals), strategy setting, development of corporate visions, portfolio analysis, and as an aid in the management of supply chains.
and vision-building on universities. These are increasingly facing new challenges brought on by a number of major disruptive drivers including, amongst others:
it is crucial to support any reform by systematic analyses and vision-building exercises. However, a review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the approaches implemented present three major shortcomings:(
This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
and develop visions of the future, current or expected future users are involved rarely actively in this anticipatory process.
and informing decisionmakking strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory''11. Different from more policy oriented institutional Foresight exercises,
IF introduces an inclusive vision development process with longer-term perspective and a strong future component.
and asked for their expectations concerning the future of TV and their vision on the future TV user and TV SET of the future.
and context. 3. 2. 2. Results 3. 2. 2. 1. Phase 1. The main aspects and trends mentioned by the experts in phase 1 in their vision on future TV experiences
The third key aspect in our personas'expectations and visualisations of future TV experiences referred to the social character of the medium:
In both studies, information and intelligence concerning real experiences, practices and visions from a user perspective served as starting points.
and stimulate those users that are traditionally not behind the steering wheel to voice their expectations, needs, visions with regards to possible, preferable and probable futures.
visions and to drive the sharing of expectations among the different stakeholders involved. Acknowledging the constraints
and could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
it is likely that some methods will be more successful than others in supporting a user to voice his or her future ideas, visions, expectations.
and operations with a long-term vision of where a firm sees itself in the future. In this regard, FTA holds the promise to embed critical aspects for jointly shaping common directions to follow across a firm's value chain.
The BSC is a management system that presents a firm's vision and strategies in four perspectives:
It does so by helping an organisation to better understand the process by which mission, vision, values,
Such alignment shall take place through the development of a common vision and both joint and individual strategic objectives and related customised operational processes and monitoring systems. 3. Empirical applications:
nor the shaping of a shared vision to be developed. 3. 2. An example from the higher education sector 3. 2. 1. Rationale The second case focused on a higher education institution that was pursuing a management model focused on efficiency standards for sustainability and continuity in the long run.
For this reason we became interested in applying the proposed system to assist the organisation in achieving its vision through a well defined strategy aligned with its implementation,
of a long-term vision that allowed one to incorporate suggestions from the community. This meant to generate sustainable solutions in the long run
Hence, the proposed system should improve in terms of its notion of stakeholder involvement to enable the development of a common vision to be pursued across the system,
to promote a collective articulation of these visions and related expectations, and to develop an action plan to monitor the achievement of the agreed vision as well as enable adaptation over time. 3. 4. Limitations of the proposed system
In spite of the success factors enabled through the use of the proposed system, its application in practice (case studies) has shown that there are still a number of elements
and strategy to a long-term vision of where the organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures;
when designing a strategy that takes into consideration the diversity of views across the value chain and the collective articulation of visions and expectations.
and (iii) a common vision to be pursued across the system based upon the mutual positioning of value chain actors in relation to the future.
and strategy to a long-term common vision of where the organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures.
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the value chain enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
These take into consideration the diversity of views across the value chain and the collective articulation of visions and expectations.
However, such common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of value chain actors in relation to future needs 52.
It does so by providing spaces where actors can come together to shape equally likely paths into the future through a collective articulation of visions
and its stakeholders'ability to develop a joint vision and define where each one would like to position itself within a range of likely futures
The‘‘renewed''system proposed in Fig. 2 holds the promise of supporting the shaping of a shared vision across the value chain
Th is is critical for the de fin itio n of a visio n t o be pu rsue d. FTA in volves the collective articulatio n of visions
This is particularly true with a view of aligning value chain actors towards a shared vision enabled through FTA.
and of a common vision to be pursued across the system is neglected however still. The paper attempts to bridge such gap by bringing together management research
Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Italy, 2002.64 K. Linard, C. Fleming, L. Dvorsky, System dynamics as the link between corporate vision
It also includes setting out an inspiring vision of the future, while ensuring that this future vision is aligned strategically with a sound process model that allows managing
At the same time, changes in the image of the future for example, due to an adapted vision as a result of leadership activities can mean that the transition path has to be adapted
Some interviewees stated that a vision indeed existed and that it was used to inspire and steer the innovation process from an early stage onwards.
Other interviewees, in contrast, were not aware of any vision at all. A third group of interviewees stated that during the WINN program a meeting was planned between the core project leaders of WINN
and the overall manager to define a set of‘themes'that together should constitute the vision for the innovations developed in WINN.
and reposition of innovation portfolio Provide strategic guidance Identify new business models Consolidate opinions Vision creation Opponent role Challenge basic assumptions Scan for disruptions that could endanger current
the vision (i e.,, becoming the leader in ICT innovation) as stated by the network partners emerges as the starting point for the network.
and the external trend that ICT is becoming increasingly important in all business areas provided the foundation for this vision. 4. 2. 2. Process model The activities of the EICT itself can be interpreted as an innovation process model.
In the SIA, a common vision, mission and strategy for the EIT and its three KICS were created.
Image of the future vision The starting point of the EIT ICT Labs was the vision of an integrated institute.
and the internal ambitions of multiple companies resulted in the shared vision of an integrated organization designed to drive innovation in ICT that would benefit from the different yet complementary assets and resources of industrial and academic partners.
Later, both, the KIC's vision and strategy were in conjunction with the revision of the EIT's SIA.
There is a clear vision and mission a general assembly consisting of core and associate partners, an 7 See http://www. softwarecampus. de/en/for details.
The CEO is also responsible for the application of the vision and strategy at a day-to-day operational level.
and work nature have come together to realize a common vision (for details see 55). Eventually, the assessment of the outcome (network performance versus original expectations) will determine the partners'future commitment.
Rijkswaterstaat WINN The vision of the WINN program has developed into what is worded now as‘‘joint search for durable new solutions for water''among various interested and related parties in The netherlands (leaflet).
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 71 Given the doubtful existence of a clear vision at the beginning of the program the transition path was lacking direction.
By now, the desired future and vision for WINN clearly embrace an open and networked approach to foresight to identify
and vision were developed based on the aim to create a highly visible innovation center in ICT in Europe.
However, other large innovation networks that Fig. 2. Visualization of WINN managed by Rijkswaterstaat in terms of its openness and network orientation.
adjusting the image of the future and the vision and strategy of EICT quarterly board meetings,
Fig. 3. Visualization of the EICT concerning openness and network orientation. 8 During the revision of this article a regular strategy meeting took place
and vision for the network based on the image of the future of an open network of partners that fosters research and business opportunities.
While the shared vision of the EIT ICT Labs serves as a common denominator, sensitive and precise leadership is required to ensure constant satisfaction and commitment on the part of the partners involved.
In contrast, strategic guidance, the assessment and repositioning of the innovation portfolio and vision creation are limited mostly to the network itself.
Fig. 4. Visualization of the EIT ICT Labs concerning openness and networks for futures research activities.
The aspects concerning strategy and vision of the partner organizations are of much less interest.
, in terms of the CIM especially the image (s) of the future, the vision and the process model of the network.
Vision and Mission, EIT ICT Labs, 2012.53 EIT ICT Labs, Partners EIT ICT Labs, 2012.54 EIT ICT Labs, Nodes & Co-Location
The EC recently approved different blue sky projects that focus on these questions like the Citizen Visions on Science,
making traditional forecasting inadequate to identify the visions for tomorrow needed to inform today's policy-making.
As to the adequacy of the methodology for shapiin a vision of the creative content sector as such, we can conclude that the process helped raise key issues and controversies relevant to the sector as depicted by the four scenarios.
so as to gain agility and strengthen preparedness Learning effects impacts Supports system actors to create their own futures Creates a shared vision amongst diverse actors Gain insights into complex interactions
stimulating public engagement and introducing visions, scenarios and other means to raise awareness Reframing the debate:
scan Visualization of pathogens Method to detect infected cells Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 47 find more technology applications.
This social constructivist vision aims to make technollog development more user-and human-centred. Closely related to the social shaping perspective is the social construction of technology (SCOT) approoac (Bijker and Law, 1992), in
They provide us with a theoretical basis for uniting the technology-centred with the user-or human-centred vision,
and a shared vision on future possibilities are all intangibles which need to be pursued. Their value exceeds
The methodologgica approach must induce out-of-the-box thinking, by the cumulative introduction of different visions on the subject, open discussions and the use of creative methods.
incorporating the visions of those who, at the same time, will be their builders and their users, since the choices made today are decisive for shaping the future.
and incorporates different visions into the foresight process, different points of view, contributing to the success of the entire exercise and to the quality of the final results.
looking forward to visions of the future and to what must be done to transform those visions into reality,
The main ideas and designed strategy on how to implement out-of-the-box thinking at FINEP are shown in Fig. 3. A vision of a possible, successful future for FINEP,
and create a fuzzier vision than scenario building permits. If we look at the past, it is clear that a great change is anticipated often by a series of micro-events, often not perceived.
The views of these players were importaan elements in broadening the vision for the future of FINEP.
which provided a clearer vision of the internatioona context of ST&I development and the role of funding agencies.
focused on prospective vision and on the definition of strategic guidelines covering time horizons of 5, 10 and 15 years..
but not unrealistic vision transforming Brazil through innovaationto motivate people and align efforts. Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 255 6. Lessons learned and main conclusions The items briefly discussed here summarize the main lesson learned,
a long-term vision not being the norm. Competitive intelligence approaches produce better engagement than strategic foresight. Private sector stakeholders tend to become very active
various visions and expectations, regulations and policies, and the activities of lead users. As such, guidance can be considered to be an interactive and cumulative process of exchanging ideas between technology producers, users and many other actors..
there is a need for additional policies that are related to networks, community building, visions, experiments and learning.
The knowledge developed under FTA helps to articulate visions and expectations which can form the framework under
and selection Dealing with grand challenges requires strong visions, strong in the sense that they constitute mobilising convictions among a large group of actors.
Building these visions should be an inclusive, joint process, highlighting inter-dependencies and encouraging alignment of actors.
The incompatibility of existing visions which have lead to unsustainable solutions also has to be addressed in this process Create spaces for market formation Market formation means generating protected spaces for the supply side to experiment
but also to new combinations of actors that are mobilised to fulfil the promises articulated in guiding visions,
The collective knowledge creation enabled by the structuring role of FTA PROCESSES enables the articulation of market-shaping expectations and visions,
and/or the articulation of widely shared visions that steer evolutiion along desirable pathways. This might involve thinking out of the box and challenging mind-sets,
and dynamic multilateral partnerships Develop widely shared visions of the future with which actors can identify
to social partners and to stakeholders and civil society so that all main stakeholders can be involved in delivering on the vision of Europe 2020.
The Joint Programming Initiatives (JPIS) have been put forward as the main means for coordinating national and regional efforts towards commonly set research agendas and visions.
Such a role could be accommodated in the stages of shaping a common vision for the selected theme or challenge at hand,
and visions could be utilised when setting the common strategic research agenda as well as in the implementation phase with equal consideration of market applicability
thereby contributing to the creation of variety in innovation systems Informing role of FTA facilitates building of a common vision for a specific theme or challenge,
of visions and expectations that guide actors in their search and selection of future opportunities.
when developing joint visions and understanndin their long-term implications Create spaces for market formation FTA's contribution to market formation tends to be more indirect, for example,
through articulation of market-shaping expectations and visions and conditions for coordination of market actors that these provide Structuring role of FTA allows consideration of future market applicability of different alternatives alongside with research excellence needed to foster their development Capacity
FTA supports articulation of market-shaping expectations and stakeholders'visions and in coordinating actors Develop
but also to new combinations of actors that are mobilised to fulfil the promises articulated in guiding visions.
With regards to its capacity-building role FTA can contribute to the articulation of strategic visions that can guide search and selection processes,
and/or the articulating widely shared visions that steer evolutions along desirable paths. As noted earlier,
vision-building and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation and efforts to define the research agenda, setting research priorities and specialisation focus.
The integration mode is likely to lead to the implementation of normative approaches that support common vision-building and priority setting.
Institutionalised FTA supports the process of defining the vision and the route Co-ordination mode of governance.
Joint visions and action plans prepare for common futures. Networked FTA Competition mode of governance. Optimising the market conditions.
Competing visions and action plans to cope with transformations. Fragmented FTA Co-existence mode of governance.
Focus on resilience, not on visions. Reduced FTA Coping with a fast-changing world. 157 FTA units or research and consulting units that can serve as network nodes.
but also to shape the future, building upon mutual understanding and common visions which are to be pursued jointly.
and to translate these into common visions of the future of the world which can be pursued jointly.
ICSU's long-term strategic vision is for a world where science is used for the benefit of all,
This vision translates into a mission that sees ICSU working with strategic partners to plan and coordinate international research programmes that address major issues of relevance to both science and society.
and to develop mobilising visions of the orientation of whole research fields (ICSU 2010). The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
that it will be useful to ICSU members and partners in developing their own longer-term vision and strategic thinking.
The exercise was tasked also with developing a long-term vision for international science cooperation and the role ICSU would play in its achievement.
and to develop a guiding vision for the organisation, it was realised quickly that these objectives required a good understanndin of the wider context of international science cooperation
While the exercise was meant primarily to inform ICSU's strategic plan and long-term vision, it was recognised from the outset that the various results generated would likely be useful to other organisations, particularly the ICSU members, in their own strategy processes..
In order to create a desirable vision of the future that is somewhat grounded, it is first important to explore the so-called future‘possibility space'.
and explored before any attempts would be made to fashion a desirable vision..Resources: Foresight exercises depend upon a number of different resources,
But this is too long for an exercise that is focused on organisational agility and a vision for international science cooperatiion Given the relative trade-offs,
It involves generating a vision of success that sets‘stretch targets'for key stakeholdders Crucially,
and to take action to implement the emerging vision. In the ICSU exercise, the success scenario was drafted by the ICSU Secretariat using the results of a dedicated one-day scenario workshop involving all members of CSPR
there is every likelihood that the success scenario will be adopted formally as ICSU's long-term desirable vision for internatioona science
and the role it and its members can play in achieving that vision. The exercise and its results were debated extensively at ICSU's General assembly in September 2011,
The vision for a global open-access library for scientific data is being realised. An evolving organisational structure for ICSU:
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