and are intended to serve as decision aids for strategy building and planning in organisations that depend on
Support agenda-setting, strategy development and trans-disciplinary communication;!Make clear communications with sponsors and stakeholders.
as well as a common strategy in their network of relationships, with support of FTA, in order to achieve coherence among network partners in progressing towards higher levels of sustainability.
their strategies should simultaneously be based on a‘culture of inertia'(on the historical paths), and on a‘culture of swiftness'(on the constantly forming potentialities of the future).
Strategy & Leadership 33, no. 3: 11 6. Edsall, R, . and K. L. Larson. 2006.
ontological unpredictability becomes increasingly important for innovation policy and strategy. The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis
and strategy are explored. The paper introduces the idea of‘ontological unpredictability 'and shows how innovation leads to unpredictability that cannot be removed by more accurate data or incremental improvements in existing predictive models.
and strategy, as well as for characterising the limitations of evidence-based policy-making in innovation-intensive societies and economies.
Implications for strategy and policy-making When true uncertainty and ontological expansion are important, formal models rarely provide useful predictions.
The impact of cognitive biases on strategy. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences 16, no. 2: 105 17.
Strategy creation in the periphery: Inductive versus deductive strategy making. Journal of Management Studies 40, no. 1: 57 82.
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and strategy making with particular emphasis upon Foresight methodologies and their implementation in science, technology and social fields.
A third objective of foresight is to build a consensual vision of the future in order to harmonise strategies of the different stakeholders.
They regard this as the right strategy because they assume that others will do the same:
and strategies A general assumption is that expectations can play such a big role due to the inherent uncertaiint of technological development (Antonelli 1989).
Such countervaailin strategy, again, is weakened by the dynamics of expectation, because stakeholders may be new, but their contribution will draw from a more general repertoire (Nahuis and Van Lente 2008).
Foresight and decision-making Decision-makers at BASF seamlessly embedded foresight activities in the strategy formulation process. Scenarios are combined usually with the formulation and evaluation of strategic options,
Within Philips Design, the‘Trends and Strategy'team has been devoted to the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 790 R. Vecchiato investigation of three axes‘Society'‘
while emerging trend investigations are scheduled yearly to fit in with the annual strategy calendar. As with Philips, foresight efforts at Siemens aim at identifying strong discontinuities and disruptions in markets and technologies so that they can be acted upon quickly.
Discussion Our work relates to several fields of research in strategy and organisation. First, we define the concepts of‘boundary'uncertainty
Environmental scanning and organizational strategy. Strategic management Journal 3, no. 2: 159 74. Hamel, G. 2000. Leading the revolution.
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Competitive strategy. Newyork: Free Press. Porter, M. E. 1985. Competitive advantage. Newyork: Free Press. Reger, G. 2001.
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The objective is to help organisations create a tailored as well as a common strategy in their network of relationships
Such a network has to operate as a cyclical system where value is redefined from Porter's strategies, on cost leadership and differentiation,
which actors in the network participate in defining common vision and strategy. The important questions are as follows:
so that it can shape a strategy to achieve the desired vision of sustainable development and implement the designed plan to meet this vision,
so that one can redefine its strategy and shape a new plan for the next cycle of improvement.
its operatiiona activities must be integrated throughout its network and in alignment with a common strategy across the network.
and the intangible assets underlying sustainable development are partnerships, strategy, communication, competencies, motivation, technology and operations. These are needed the activities for the creation of value in sustainable development (Cagnin 2005.
and strategy to a long-term common vision of where an organisation wants to position itself within possible alternative futures.
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the network enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
and mobilisation of necessary skills and resources towards a common target, aligning therefore strategy and operations across the system.
Consequently, a business can build a tailored, common strategy throughout its network of relationships: it may also influence partners in their progress towards higher levels of sustainable development.
As a reminder, the model seeks to enable a common strategy and/or strategies aligned across the network,
founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
Maturity levels 3-Managed with no 4-Excellence at corproate 5-High-performance Value activity 1-Ad hoc 2-Planned in isolation integration level sustainability net Strategy-Overhead,
strategies and activities aligned and integrated across the net-Collaborative innovation and continuous sustainability performance improvement system,
synchronised with the strategy-Flexible infrastructure basis to enable communication and information flow through the firm;
and estabilishing basic processes that are linked not to strategy; end-of-pipe solutions; individual abilities-Policies support practicces aim to reduce impacts with better use of materials and natural resources-Structured processes/activities-Firm-wide understandiin of activities, roles and responsibilities-Idea
and reviewing the vision of sustainability Strategy Establish leadership commitment; and strategic architecture definition and review Partnerships Identify
alignment definition and review Design the business Defining and reviewing the strategy to implement the vision of sustainability Strategy Strategic and tactical planning definition and review Partnerships Partnerships selection;
and monitoring relevant information to keep the business on track of its vision of sustainability Strategy Performance, environment, capabilities, constraints, opportunities,
and is now a senior advisor of STI (Science, Technology and Innovation policy and strategy at CGEE.
Strategy & Leadership, 28, no. 4: 21 6. MCB University Press. Bovet, D. M. and J. A. Martha. 2000e.
Competitive strategy: Techniques for analysing industries and competitors. Newyork: Free Press. Porter, M. E. 1985a. Competitive advantage:
Towards a dynamic theory of strategy. Strategic management Journal 12 (S2), 95 117. Porter, M. E. 1997.
What is strategy? Harvard Business Review, 61 78. Rocha, I. 2003. Gestão de Organizações: Pensamento Científico, Inovação, Ciência e Tecnologia, Auto-Organização, Complexidade e Caos, Ética e Dimensão Humana.
Match your change strategy to your organization's maturity. Nonprofit World 21, no. 5: 19 20.
Appendix 1. Research overall strategy Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 816 C. Cagnin
and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
Strategy ILO Strategy UNGC KCGCB Strategy CRT Lisbon Strategy CRT KCGCB CRT UNGC CRT UNGC GSPSR UNGC NS UNGC KCGCB
and essential to achieve a cooperative and systematic network Strategy It is the business commitment with a set of principles, values and policies
and build a common set of values Technology An effective integration of social and environmental strategies can be supported strongly by theuse of IT.
Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
Run the business D It is to implement the defined strategy and its designed plan every day.
strategy process Introduction The geographical scales of innovation systems are interlinked currently more than ever. The interrelatedness poses specific challenges for an organisation striving to navigate in this landscape.
strategies should simultaneously be based on a‘culture of inertia',on the historical paths, and on a‘culture of swiftness',on the constantly forming potentialities of the*Corresponding author.
strategies should build on robust historical paths, and they should also foster future-oriented adaptability. We propose that this paradox could be tackled by fostering two systemic capacities:(
In this situation, strategies should be constantly‘on the move, 'and based on‘future beacons'that are locked only temporarily.
'The first component of the systemic transformation capacities, enabling the mobile strategies, is a partial structural openness that endorses flexibility in responding to the systemic flows, such as changes in the business environment or in the customer's innovation processes.
either based on an organisation's strategy clock or when a critical need, such as a change in the environment, emerges.
Second is the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping, in which the roadmapping is perceived more as a dynamic
and short-to medium-term strategies to realise this vision. Here, we call this methodology process-based roadmapping.
This visual emphasis enables the use of roadmaps as crystallised strategy charts that open simultaneous perspectives both on macro-level currents
This idea of a roadmap as a crystallised strategy chart separates roadmapping from other‘generic'foresight methods, such as Delphi or scenario processes.
Roadmapping can be considdere as a meta-level visualisation of an organisational strategy that could utilise the inputs from Delphi or scenario exercises,
Process-based strategy roadmapping is methodologically more flexible and exploratory than traditiiona technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as hermetic plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
produce a visual strategy manuscript for an organisattion Strategy roadmapping is also about engaging and empowering people (see Ahlqvist et al. 2010).
This idea links strategy roadmapping to organisation and strategy studies, especially to strategy crafting (see e g.
Therefoore the emerging culture of strategy roadmapping should not be viewed as a‘pure'foresight methodology, but more as a hybrid of foresight and organisational strategy crafting.
Roadmapping can be used in strategy processes, for example, in the following ways (Figure 2: The first way is the building of a common vision.
Basically, roadmapping is a collaborative long-range strategy process. The second way is the identification of societal needs as drivers for the design of solutions.
for making a subcontractor strategy. The sixth way is to read roadmaps as temporal sequences, that is,
and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space
In our model, the knowledge space that analyses these wider socio-technical constellations is the strategy space.
strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.
and systemic capacities The SSB roadmap can be perceived as an R&d II type of technology roadmap that aims to contribute to the strategy space and the social/actor space.
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 4. The SSB network operated primarily in the strategy space.
strategy space and visionary space, systemic I scope The third case is an example of a systemic network roadmap.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Exercise defined the emerging field of service research
and its future possibilities Capacities for use of the existing service knowledge Knowledge generated via roadmapping was used iteratively throughout the strategy building process, e g. definition of service, identification of most important research needs,
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 5. In the strategy space,
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy building client-oriented
strategy space and visionary space, systemic II scope Our fourth case is Nordic ICT Foresight, an example of a systemic foresight exercise (Ahlqvist et al. 2007a, 2007b.
which aimed to contribute to the strategy space and the visionary space. The project completed a systemic scenario exercise that integrated visionary components
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 6. Nordic ICT Foresight operated primarily in the strategy space.
From a capacity perspective, the project aimed to construct a basis for understanding the Nordic region as a‘common strategy region'in the ICT context.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Assessing the implications of the ICT applications in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway,
and Sweden) Constructing a basis for understanding Nordic region as a‘common strategy region'in the ICT context Forming a perspective of ICT convergence in the Nordic region (fragmented modularisation ubiquitous) Evaluating the value and meaning
abilities at Nordic regional level Construction of implementation strategies Visionary Building long-term visionary glimpses to the futures of ICT applications and adoption of ICT in Nordic region Aimed at systemic
Built capacity for systemic resilience at Nordic regional level Identification of‘black swan'type of development options Construction of visionary adaptive strategies on the basis of assessment of alternatives to build
and constructed explicit implementation strategies. The project also functioned in the visionary space. It built long-term visionary glimpses of the adoption of ICT applications on the scale of the Nordic region.
On this basis, the project fostered so-called adaptive strategies, that is, identification disruptive strategic‘holes'for Nordic ICT development.
The Nordic ICT Foresight aimed to foster the visionary notions of‘Nordic innovation culture'and‘common strategy region'in the context of ICT applications.
The fundamentals and competencies need to be positioned in the context of‘mobile strategies'that enable the continuous elaboration of targets and the planning of actions.
process-based roadmapping is one potential avenue for the construuctio of such mobile strategies. On the basis of the cases, it can be assessed that roadmapping is most applicable to processes aimed either at the technology space, the social/actor space,
or the strategy space. In the case of the visionary space, methods that bring more creative latitude,
Her research focusses on the links between foresight knowledge, corporate strategy, and innovation policy. She holds a Phd from Helsinki Swedish School of economics and Businessadministration and Lic.
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methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
In the USA,‘‘A Strategy for American Innovation: Driving towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs''was formulated in 2009 (Executive Office of the President, 2009),
which was revised as‘‘A Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity''in 2011 (National Economic Council, 2011.
In Japan, the status of science and technology policy in the national grand strategy has changed significantly as its GDP growth rate stagnates in the face of intensified international competition and a falling birth rate and aging population.
and maintenance of education level by standardization 12-E Strategy toward a sustainable infrastructure systemb Notes:
A Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth, European commission, Brussels. Executive Office of the President (2009), A Strategy for American Innovation:
National Economic Council (2011), Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity, National Economic Council, Council of economic advisors, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.
and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
of the High-tech Strategy. Forward-looking Projects are designed to map out scientific and technological developments over a period of ten to 15 years in specific areas
a panel of high-ranking experts that advises on the implementation of the High-tech Strategy. The final, seventh, step of the Strategic dialogue resulted in a pragmatic vision for a‘‘CO2-neutral,
In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical
The seven challenges identified by the EU's SD strategy are: 1. climate change and clean energy;
or strategies actively addressed through specific initiative, policy strategy. 5 has had your organisation contact with other governments internationally in discussing these drivers and trends?
's Grand Societal Challenges'',Report of the ETP Expert Group, European commission, Brussels. European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006), Review of the European union Sustainable development Strategy Renewed Strategy, available at:
foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 243-51.
Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years
This study was implemented in the framework of the Programme of Fundamental Studies of the Higher School of economics in 2011. been active in the development of long-term strategies for the rational use of natural resources and in the sphere of environmental protection.
All Russian hydropower plants together generate just 20 per cent of the electricity produced in the country (Russian Energy Strategy:
B designing sectoral strategies for industries; B regional priorities for innovation development; and B priorities for international S&t co-operation.
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector.
design of large-scale innovation projects identification of research projects to be funded within federal and sectoral goal-oriented S&t programmes designing sectoral strategies for industries regional priorities for innovation development priorities
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Direct (high) VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 51
and some strategic documents (Geologic Strategy, Water Strategy) were prepared on the basis of the output of the study.
updating the Union's approach in the context of the Lisbon strategy'',COM (2003) 112, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004a),‘Science and technology, the key to Europe's future guidelines for future European union
OPEC Secretariat (2010),‘OPEC long-term strategy'',OPEC, Vienna. PAGE 52 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006),‘Next generation networks:
Russian Energy Strategy: 2030 (2009), Russian Energy Strategy: 2030, Russian Federation, Moscow. Russian Federation (2009), On the Current State and Utilisation of Mineral resources of the Russian Federation in 2009, State Report, Russian Federation, Moscow.
Sokolov, A. 2008a),‘Science and technology foresight in Russia: results of a national Delphi'',3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 16-17 october, Seville, Book of Abstracts.
In addition to the resource-based theory, the modern emphasis is on network approaches to industrial strategy
Therefore, it is not possible generate a viable and appropriate technology strategy without a perception of the changing technical capability of our own industry and that of related industries (Powell and Bradford, 2000.
and develop strategies for future ISTS in order to realize the goal stated in the Lisbon Objective (Fujii,
of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP) Foresight and Strategy Planning Team, Korean Institute of S&t Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), The Science
differences in technology development focus or portfolio strategy can be identified. From Japan's result, technology development is focused more on using different source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
''and‘‘focus''technology strategy used in the 3rd Basic Plan on S&tof Japan. South korea seems to be employing a different strategy;
it focuses not only on possible source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
and it shows a convergent/divergent dual technology development strategy. In mapping of China's important topics, almost half show interactions within a single technology,
and help to building the desired vision and strategy for developing future technologies. Meanwhile from a resource-based strategic concept, this classification framework can provide a bridge to link the future technology themes with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality,
implications for strategy formulation'',California Management Review, Vol. 33 No. 3, pp. 114-35. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 71 Griliches, Z. 1990),‘Patent statistics as economic indicators:
Hax, A. and Majluf, N. 1996), The Strategy Concept and Process: A Pragmatic Approach, Prentice hall, London.
Resources, Firms and Strategies: A Reader in the Resource-based Perspective, Oxford university Press, Oxford. Orwat, C. 2003),‘WP 1 Review and analysis of national foresight;
and other resources, target audience, communication strategy, etc. Before making these design‘technical'decisions, four issues seem to be particularly relevant
and by trying to develop taxonomies of strategy and policy needs; systems in which FTA is conducted;
The authors claim that the first step for devising a technology strategy is to decide if the technology is worth investing in by better understanding how such technology might develop in the future.
and discontinuity much emphasised by grand challenges, transformations and disruptive changes that claim for adaptation and alignment as coping strategies.
and is now a senior advisor of STI (Science, Technology and Innovation policy and strategy at CGEE.
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon foresight methodologies and their implementation in socioeconomic and technological fields at the supranational, national, regional and sectoral levels. 385 C. Cagnin et al./
and increasingly fierce competition require companies to be innovative, both in their products andmarketing strategies,
and user experience 1. Technology plays a key role among these three components 2. Before the product strategy is formulated,
a technology strategy must be developed to provide competitive products, materials, processes, or system technologies 3. The first step for devising a technology strategy is to decide
if the technology is worth the investment. Howwill the technology develop in the future? Will the technology flourish in the future
A query strategy for nanotechnology has been developed by TPAC at the Georgia Institute of technology 30. We refine our search terms for biosensors based on our earlier research 31
for product lifecycle management, Technical Report, STR/04/058/SP, Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology, 2004.3 T. A. Vijay, Challenges in product strategy
Market Manage. 21 (1)( 1992) 23 31.36 E. Hajime, The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy:
All of the extraordinary organizational forms and behavioral strategies that we witness in nature or society have arisen through the process of inheritance with diversification and selection.
and we can say that a lot of work remains to be done to make evolution a viable strategy and school of thought in the study of technology.
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 2 july 2012 Accepted 27 august 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 Developing strategies,
and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
Hence, it is not necessary to design a strategy for this region; this uncertainty subspace consists of acceptable scenarios in terms of CO2 avoidance
Chang. 17 (2007) 73 85.41 R. J. Lempert, D. G. Groves, S w. Popper, S. C. Bankes, A general analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative
or willing to rank order the possibilities in terms of how likely or plausible they are judged to be 8. There is a need for model-based support for the design of robust strategies across this spectrum of irreducible uncertainties.
and to explore possible strategies to cope with or prevent certain undesirable dynamics. 3. 2. Adaptive planning for airport development The air transport industry operates in a rapidly changing context.
whether EMA can be used to facilitate the development of robust strategies even in the presence of many Table 6 The major uncertainties and their ranges.
and in the process of developing robust strategies for addressing these problems. The cases presented and discussed have shown that EMA can be used to handle diverse types of uncertainties in combination with three quite distinct modeling approaches.
but in particular the second case, showed how the ability to cope with uncertainties can help in iteratively developing dynamic adaptive strategies that are robust across a large part of the uncertainty space.
Rev. 15 (1999) 3 36.31 R. J. Lempert, D. G. Groves, S. Popper, S. Bankes, A general analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios, Manag.
At a strategic level, the European union took up this challenge via the Innovation Union Flagship Initiative as part of the Europe 2020 strategy launched in 2010.
Futures thinking is an essential element of developing such a strategy. For example, Hamel and Prahalad 17 emphasize that strategy should draw up consistent visions of the future.
In addition several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18 23.
including a palette of strategies to reach this situation 54. The concept of roadmapping has its roots in science
or strategy process should be able to open the scope of observation for periphery incidents and early,
It is accepted widely that a vision about the future is an essential element of a strategy 16,17.
Secondly, we argue that the use of cooperative strategies, i e. participatory scenario analysis, is required to produce a variety of possible,
The Link Between Future and Strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, New york, 2003.21 M. E. Porter, Competitive advantage, Free Press, New york, 1985.22 G. Ringland, The role of scenarios in strategic foresight, Technol.
Guiding Exploratory Innovation and Strategy, the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: 12 & 13,may 2011, May 13 2011.71 O. Saritas, J. Aylen, Using scenarios for roadmapping:
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