Then, one can automate routines to generate composite information representations (bonepageersq that address the issues at hand, the way that the target users want.
I describe what we call btech miningq-deriving technology intelligence especially from R&d information resources 1, 2. The phenomenon of interest is speed,
but with provision of information that truly facilitates technology management. The time to conduct certain technology analyses can be reduced from months to minutes by taking advantage of four factors enabling QTIP Quick Technology intelligence Processes:
The first QTIP factor concerns information availability. A defining characteristic of the binformation Economyq is enhanced access to information.
Of particular note to FTA, the great science and technology (S&t) databases cover a significant portion of the world's research output.
Various databases compile information on journal and conference papers patents, R&d projects, and so forth. In addition, many researchers share information via the Internet (e g.,
, physicists increasingly post their papers at arxiv. org. Other databases cover policy, popular press, and business activities.
All told, this wealth of information enables potent technological intelligence analyses. The second QTIP factor consists of expedited analyses using one form of btech miningq software.
and information visualization can be done quite briskly. The third contributing factor, automated routines, makes a huge difference.
QTIP works where we know the sort of information we need. That implies bworking backq from the decision support requirements to the data.
In our framework, these indicators reflect one of three main types of MOT information: technological maturation (life cycle status), contextual influences and market potential 3. The innovation indicators help answer MOT questions.
Having standard information dramatically enhances managerial receptivity:!Standard information becomes familiar information.!Familiar information becomes credible information.!
Credible information gets put to use in decision-making.!Information that is used gets requested bnext timeq.!
Information that is requested repeatedly merits automation of its generation. We next need to align the other three factors to enable QTIP-database access, analytical tools,
and scripting. Factor 1 is binstant database accessq. That is, access to the requisite information resources should be direct and seamless.
The analyst should not have to work through an intermediary to search and retrieve electronic documents.
This counters the current arrangements in many organizations. Often, an information services unit handles all data requests.
In the past this typically meant that a researcher or analyst requested topical information from an information professional who sifted through the sources.
S) he eventually provided the requester with a very few documents to read. Such an arrangement fails at QTIP.
However, we suggest that information professionals still have vital roles to play. Centralized information services are positioned best to arrange access to prime information resources.
They can negotiate fair licenses that enable desktop access to the most useful and affordable databases.
They can serve tremendously in showing others how to search using Boolean and other approaches,
We suggest that information professionals consider expanding their skill sets to become expert on analytical tools and trainers on how to use these effectively.
our experience indicates that just providing the analytical tools to information professionals is unlikely to lead to effective FTA applications.
On the other hand, expanded information professional roles could enable their becoming full FTA team members 4. One way or another,
recall (to capture as much of the available information on the subject as possible) precision (to minimize inclusion of extraneous information-noise!
The resulting information for btech miningq consists primarily of science and technology (S&t) publication and patent abstract records.
Scripting semi-automates the processing steps to achieve the desired information products. In this example I apply Vantagepoint software www. thevantagepoint. com supported by Visual basic macros.
However, imagine that the target users of this information are used to seeing exactly this sort of profile in response
Note that much of this information is provided best to subject matter experts in our organization for their review and interpretation.
Within the Scorecard, the Capabilities Spectrum synthesizes information to draw implications regarding this company's relative strengths.!
Below the Scorecard, we sum up information gleaned from Ceramic Fuel cells Ltd. website, deemed pertinent to deciding on their suitability as a development partner.!
Sources of information should be chosen to meet one's needs. I emphasize mining of R&d publication and patent abstract records.
But note that we also tap Internet sources here, for company information. In general, we find that the databases provide much richer S&t information resources with a measure of quality control.
We like to use the Internet to complement these by providing more up-todaat and contextual information.
For instance, these analyses might point to key research centers; we could then seek their websites to learn more about their interests, contact information, etc.
In general, we prefer to first exploit the R&d databases, then update and probe using the internet.
What the technology focus and organizational focus profiles hold in common is a compilation of empirical information to help answer a particular MOT question. 3. Discussion This paper illustrates how to compose informative decision support from empirical information concerning various
enabling refinement of information searches that would drastically upgrade subsequent FTA work. These two examples reflect an essential difference.
information providers (e g.,, meeting their needs for profits and protection of their intellectual property! information professionals (e g.,
, in coordinating licenses and access to databases and analytical tools! technology analysts (e g.,, power users of these capabilities on a regular basis!
many do use empirical information in S&t arenas. Researchers usually mine the literature to find a few bnuggetsq that speak closely to their interests.
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1078 miningq exploits the information compiled by S&t and other (e g.,
This information can serve other FTA needs to various degrees:!Technology foresight Quick tech mining can help participants grasp the scope of technology development efforts.
Technology and Product Roadmapping QTIP serves background information roles well. It is vital in documenting external technology development activities to track their likely trajectories.
Exploiting contextual information resources that cover policy, standards, public concerns, possible health and environmental hazards, and perceived technological impacts can further support TA activities.
The driver is bwhen do need you to have what information? Q Note that this seriously alters relationships and expectations between manager users and technology analysts.
which databases contain the most SOFC information. I select two that provide good coverage and are licensed for unlimited use by Georgia Tech.!
This paper focuses on the idea that informative mining of S&t information resources can be done quickly and powerfully.
The information resources are largely, but not completely, texts. btext miningq tools are progressing rapidly 10,11.
Development of information visualizations especially for S&t offers great potential 12 13. To close, this bnewq method brings to bear available S&t information resources
and analytical tools to generate FTA more quickly. Its novelty lies in the approach to technology analyses in support of technology management.
Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!
Develop standard output templates (information visualizations.!Train the potential QTIP participants in use of the tools and resulting FTA outputs.
I would go so far as to forecast that the technology manager who relies solely on intuitive information faces extinction.
J. Watts, A l. Porter, Innovation forecasting, Technological forecasting and Social Change 56 (1997) 25 47.4 N c. Newman, A l. Porter, J. Yang, Information professionals:
changing tools, changing roles, Information Outlook 5 (3)( 2001) 24 30.5 A l. Porter, A. Kongthon, J.-C. Lu, Research profiling:
) 261 274.9 H. Ernst, Patent information for strategic technology management, World Patent Information 25 (3)( 2003) 233 242.10 A. Kontostathis,
Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
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and bio-society (7) Information and communications (8) Understanding and human interaction (9) Materials (10) Global economy Apart from its title, each panel was characterised by a description of about 150
Information and communications) were driven partly by the comparatively strong global positiio of Finland while others (e g.
For each driving force, the full distribution of the assessment ratingswas shownto convey information about the variability of perceptions among the panellists.
Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural
and information and communication industry and services; built environment. Although the establishment of these centres cannot be attributed to Finnsight,
In view of citations, Finnsight has served also as a source of information for various regional and organisational strategy processes in Finland.
For instance, Finnsight synthesised consensual information about overarchiin developments that were relevant to many organisations in the R&i system (e g. universities, industrial federations, private enterprises.
The panels were fed not'by any prior information and the results could be attributed fully to the panels.
and discuss information and insights with each other. This picks up the point above, that stakeholder engagement and participation is at the core of foresight activities
which they process information and deconstruct the scenario workshop process in detail to illustrate the organisational learning
of knowledge into a company is just as important as managing information flows within the company.
An abstract includes source information, a short summary of the article or event in question, and a description of the implications that the scanner believes that the item presents.
The observation is a to-the-point example of the continuing expansion of the information economy into the broader service economy and of
education, information technology, retailing, and government), the analysts know that the technology or topic will have widespread impact (see Fig. 3). The second part of the meeting consists of identifying the topics
SRIC-BI's staff includes experts with backgrounds in anthropology, business, economics, international affairs, communication arts, marketing, information technology, life sciences,
Patton is available at kpatton@sric-bi. com. More information about SRIC-BI's Scan program is available at www. sric-bi. com. K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005
In the process of generating the list it is likely that the types of information needed to make decisions will also be collected.
For example Information technology could be an explicit priority while mathematics was not but the former might be highly dependent upon inputs from the latter.
FP1 Socioeconomic Improving human potential Innovation/dissemination International cooperation Energy Environment Competitive and sustainable growth Information society Quality of life Fig. 2. Evolution of framework programme priorities
This argument is particularly strong for innovation in complex public/private systems such as vehicle route information technologies,
including its societal perspectives, for instance, sustainability, security and information society. While foresight is used commonly in connection with the public-Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Whereas the paper reports some findings on the future of challenges especially related to sustainability, security and information society,
and codify information that allow a better understanding of the future drivers and challenges, develop visions,
sustainability and information society issues requires typically many types of participants as well as different kinds of methods to adapt to the interests
In the security, sustainability and information society fields, stakeholders have the possibility to develop scenarios on
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research Areag 21 Informative Identification and SWOT analysis of socio-techno-economic trends, drivers and challenges;
futures challenges, applications and priorities for developing the information society in the EU. Instrumental Outputs contributed to prepare the FP7 (Framework programme) ICT programme.
Results were discussed with both DG Information society and DG Transport and Energy of the European commission. Diverse Description of a large degree of uncertainty of impact of ICTS on the environment.
Instrumental The 8th Japanese technology foresight program aims to provide necessary information for making the 3rd S&t basic plan of Japan.
namely to provide necessary information for making the 2nd Korea S&t Framework plan. Consensual The‘‘Revision of 3rd Korean TF''has analysed the impacts of 19 megatrends & issues,
NTFC aims to provide also necessary information for making five-year plan of science & technology development.
Technology foresight towards 2020 in China Informative TF2020 aims to provide necessary information for making long term strategy for science and technology development in China,
by the Nordic council. d The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems. e Commissioned by the Office of the National science Advisor (ONSA.
f Commissioned by the Finnish Government. g A FP5 IST Thematic Network (2002 2005) coordinated by JRC-IPTS and managed in collaboration with DG Information society. h Commissioned by JRC-IPTS.
Information society: a term put forward by Castells 15 to describe a society built on technologies of information storage, retrieval,
and transmission time-space compression, post-Fordism, flexible accumulation, and the advance of finance capital, which is characterized by networking, globalization,
Information society calls, for instance, for a new legislative framework to recognize and protect the users of cyberspace.
The European commission has been an active promoter of the information society. 4 While the authors consider diverse approaches valuable in the realm of foresight to address societal challenges, for the purposes of this paper,
A quick scan was performed on foresight projects that address security, sustainability and/or information society issues. The suitability of the identified projects was discussed
Furtheron, if the coordinate systemof Fig. 2 ispositionedtoeachquadrant of Fig. 1, the foresightprojects canbepositionedin the coordinates to provide detailed information on the nature of the outcomes and process of each project (Fig. 3). Hence
They are expected to improve the understanding of present 4 In 1997 the European commission published a"Green Paper"pointing at the development of a new Information society
characterised not only by convergence of technology and by exchange of information other many different networks,
in order to support the development of the Information society in Europe. In parallel with addressing regulatory aspects, the European union (EU) included in its Fifth Framework programme for Research and Technological development (FP5:
1998 2002) a specific programme for research on a"User-friendly information society"."Today, with the i2010 policy framework, the EU aims to"promote the positive contribution that information
and communication technologies (ICT) can make to the economy, society and personal quality of life, "and the ICT priority has the largest budget share of the current European RTD Framework programme (FP7:
the processes served policy-making by providing relevant background information, but they were meant not as such to engage policy-makers in the process.
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (2002 2005) was an FP5 IST Thematic Network coordinated by JRC-IPTS
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 261 Information society. FISTERA highlighted priority application areas where R&d investments should be intensified in the future,
and generated a number of debates on the future of information and communication technologies and the development of a knowledge society in Europe.
in order to make the information included in the report both comprehensive and independent. The work is the product of analysis by the DCDC
Outputs were discussed with both DG Information society and DG Transport and Energy of the European commission. Findings were used also in subsequent JRC-IPTS projects 25.
we elaborate and attest its validity in the context of ex post analysis of a number of foresight projects focusing on sustainability, security and information society and their contribution to policy-making.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 263 foresight is ever more important to position foresight as one of the key supporting tools for policy-making to anticipate how major societal challenges ahead can be addressed such as those tackled in this paper, e g. security, sustainability and information society challenges.
The information age: economy, Society and Culture, vol. 1, Blackwell, Malden, 1996.16 European commission, Green Paper on the convergence of the telecommunications, media and information technology sectors,
and the implications for regulation towards an approach for the information society, COM/97/623, December 1997.17 Nordic ICT foresight, available at:
http://www. vtt. fi/inf/pdf/publications/2007/P653. pdf (2009-11-10). 18 Nordic H2 Energy Foresight for the Nordic Council
http://www. h2foresight. info (2009-11-10). 19 The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems, available at:
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area, available at: http://fistera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/(2009-11-10). 22 Future impacts of ICTS on Environmental sustainability Project, available at:
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (FISTERA) Key Findings, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-22319-EN, Seville, 2009, available at:
id=1431 (2009-11-10). 24 A. Fujii, Foresight on information society technologies in Europe, in:
The EPIS Annual Monitoring Synthesis Report, The Role of ICTS as Enabler for Energy efficiency, the European Perspectives on Information society (EPIS) project, 11/2008, EUR Number:
and displaying information, such as network analysis, dynamic graphs and charts, even computer simulations and use of images and dramatic interpretations of posits
the (i) collection,(ii) collation and (iii) summarisation of available information (trends, expected and unusual developments, etc.
For example, methods are indicated for each of the subtasks of collection, collation and summarisation of information.
Enactment participants identify information that influences their view of an issue and then‘bracket 'and‘label'it,
Retention the products of the two preceding steps are stored (as published information or individual experience) so that they can be retrieved
and eliciting information from them in a form that can be used readily, are important here.
as in the case of genomics (controversies over stem cells, use of genetic information, etc.;
some actors have more access to sources of information and information-processing capabilities, and to the levers of power and capacities to commandandcontrol others.
But there isnomonopoly of these resources, and even the bestinfoorme and most powerful actors have to work with others to a limited extent in totalitarian regimes, to a huge extent in liberal democracies.)
FTA is liable to involve large volumes of information that can be processed through such TKM systems.
linking, presenting and discussing information and insights with each other. This also enables them to internalise this knowledge through interpretations in specific contexts.
and information codified in reports, lists, and other such external manifestations and products of knowledge as suggested by Dawson 20.
and information (that can be codified and embodied in texts and other artefacts). The tacit/explicit terminology is embedded so well,
Individual actors in FTA organise information in ways that are relevant to their purposes practical problems, conceptual challenges,()TD$FIG Knowledge Information Knowledge Socialisation:
Transfer of knowledge between people (through interaction rather than mediated through captured information) Externalisation: Capturing people's knowledge by rendering it as documents or structured processes Informationinternalisation:
and the like, provides information resulting from the knowledge. This information may be an account of the knowledge
and/or posits, or may simply imply such an account (which an observer equipped with relevant knowledge will be able to reconstruct).
and organise the information in different ways, deriving different sorts of knowledge from it. For example, a detailed account of a scenario represents a codification of posits,
What is transferred is information about knowledge, rather than the knowledge itself. New knowledge and posits is constructed on the basis of this new information and past knowledge.
The agents in question may well make use of technological aids and texts notably whiteboards and flip-charts on which diagrams
This involves sharing information, not only about the results of research but also about the views and opinions (preferably well-grounded ones) that participants hold;
and share such information, although it may be less easy to capture in a structured way as would be the information from, for example, statistical data or trend extrapolations.
Some of these methods yield relatively unstructured information; some organise this information into lists or more structured frameworks even models;
some allow for synthesising information into posits, views of alternative futures, such as those incorporated into scenarios and roadmaps.
Eerola suggests that these activities of capturing information and forging posits from it can be seen as the‘‘E
''and‘‘C''stages of the SECI model. The cycle continues with‘‘I''and a new‘‘S''stage,
as the posits are put into the context of specific stakeholders'circumstances, and in turn used for formulating explicit priorities, recommendations and decisions.
to provide workshop participants with a common information base (and sometimes some shared terminology), or materials collated,
As well as background reading, provision of information from research and analysis is included often formally in the workshop,
and then proceeding to draw on this (critically) in subsequent activities where this formally presented material is added to by information and opinions input by participants,
Yet already some‘‘combination''of information is likely to have been performed outside of the workshop, in the course of the preparation of the background material.
with discussion about the connections between ideas proving a good basis for exchanging information about implicit models and theories.
and another differentiation between KM strategies emphasising codification (these are centred ON IT systems, with extensive organisation of data and information resources,
and visualising data and information. Miles et al. 23 discuss numerous ways in which new IT is liable to be employed in FTA in coming years.
Admittedly, the key information may be created‘‘on the fly''in interaction between participants in the system. A. Eerola,
and roadmapping conducted for ISTAG (the Information society Technologies Advisory Group) of the EC 26. The Ami work had focused on the benefits of the emerging ubiquitous IT systems,
SWAMI took a more critical approach to the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical implications surrounding such issues as privacy, control of information, and identity.
/Papers%20from%20posters/New%20-forms%20of%20knowledge%20management. pdf (accessed 09/02/10)).17 M. H. Boisot, Information Space.
Securing Competitive advantage in the Information Economy, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1999.19 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1995.20 R. Dawson, Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships, Butterworth-Heinemann, London, 2000.21 A. Eerola, B. H
How Organizations Use Information to Construct Meaning. Create Knowledge and Make Decisions, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1999.36 J. Naisbitt, Megatrends, Warner Books, New york, 1982.37 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,
It also means that information is freely available in easily understandable forms and directly accessible to all who will be affected by such decisions,
information disclosure; competition'taxation; and science and technology. Their aimis to ensure thatmnes operate in harmony with the policies of the countries where they operate.
Fourth Report on Economic and Social Cohesion, European communities, 2007.20 C. H. Cagnin, An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
by providing some basic profile information without any attribution of responses to individuals. The BPS methodology was straightforward:
which relevant Foresight information might be inferred. Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as synonyms,
and similar innovations create powerful forces that change the business and social environments and personal information practices;
Sometimes it is referred as future oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. Hiltunen 16 has tried to clarify the confusion about the weak signal definitions
In the first part, the respondents were asked to provide descriptive information around three sorting variables:
Sub-categories (A b c) to classify Domains of Interest 1. Society & Culture Social Norms, Education, Information & Knowledge society Demographics, Urbanization, Population Health & Migration Equity, Ethical
law and life styles Dependence on anti-factual information, failing roots of knowledge and understanding Declining male fertility Human cloning Science & Tech. 33 Ubiquitous connectivity web
In summary, the authors are excited by how this information might be dissected further and examined for themes
and public information centres to enable to disseminate the value and benefits of FTA and to help build an FTA culture across society through awareness raising''.
Rather than focussing too much on accurate information FTA techniques need to embrace different perspectives including those considered impossible now
In general, these can be gathered based on information by using a broad range of advanced tools and methods that can be allocated to the field of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA,
the most important of which might be the energy sector and the development of information and communication technologies.
The rapid progress in information and communication technologies enabled the application of sophisticated transport models.
and have limited side effects) without forgetting that the reliability of these information is limited, varying and depending on the nature of these information themselves.
Or, to put it paradoxically, how to reduce the level of uncertainty while at the same time acknowledging that uncertainty is limitless.
which a decision maker lacks most of the information about his options and of the values of the different outcomes.
and as a web of Table I Knowns and unknowns in decision-making Category Unknown unknowns Known unknowns Knowns Description Most features of the situation neither known nor well-defined (options, their possible consequences, reliability of information,
In general, these are dominated by qualitative information. Quantitative data might well play a role but the main characteristics of these approaches is the way in
The basic principle of integrating information is the formulation of arguments, perspectives and judgements. This can be done in form of one-way communication as it is usually practiced in expert hearings
The information might not be detailed enough to get new insights into the probabilities for the occurrence of any known effects.
The key element for successful application of the method is the choice of expert group that produces the information.
the goal of the second questionnaire was to fill in the gaps in the information required to forma solid general view of the future.
Hence the most important information needs concerned possible development paths in key energy consuming sectors (transport, housing and industry), the additional questions concentrated on these issues.
the reliability and information value of calculations made using the kind of information that was available at the time of the task,
Further refinement in the changes in the operational environment that affect the possibilities to reach the emission goals of 2050 would have been needed to make the foundation for attaching numerical information more solid.
In a political process there is a need for practical and easily digestible information, such as clear figures.
and to have a high information value, without too much deliberation given on how one arrived at these numbers.
If the user of the resulting numerical information concerning the scenarios is not aware of the uncertainties behind scenarios,
available information might lead to hasty decisions. Some alternatives might be disregarded altogether and the decision-makers might be tempted to focus on a particular scenario.
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