as well as from the literature)..Phase 2 april 2010 to March 2011: Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..
and a literature scan. The outcome of the web consultation was 174 separate ideas for key drivers from 82 individuals from more than 30 countries.
foresight and forward-looking policy design The concept of a system has different emphases in different branches of the innovation literature.
First, the innovation system literature highlights those organizations that particiipat in the emergence, diffusion and embedding innovatiions such as universities, public and private R&d organizations, companies and various intermediate organizattions and the collective learning processes between these organizations (Smits et al. 2010).
Secondly, the literature on systemic innovations and transition managemeen emphasizes the dynamic relations of sociotechnoologica landscapes, socio-technical regimes and niche-level innovations in the context of emerging technologies (Geels and Schot 2007.
Thirdly, the literature on technological systems places the emphasis on networks of agents in a specific economic or industrial sector and the particular institutional infrastructure involved in the generaatio and diffusion of technology (Carlsson and Stankiewicz 1991.
The knowledge required for building the roadmaps was gathered in a systematic process that combined literature scanning expert interviiew and an assessment workshop.
The foresight literature contains several accounts of the tensions arising from attempts to map out and execute large-scale foresight exercises according to a clear‘bluepriint (Havas 2003).
and other internet sources such as blog reports, literature consultation, but also Conference table 1. Summary of concepts applied in horizon scanning Concept Description Weak signals Citing from Igor Ansoff,
literature; conferences for additional signal/issue selection and refinement of reference frame (observation time depends on participants
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
or meta descriptions Connections and clustering is made as reported in survey responses, literature and based on reviewers'expertise.
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Origins High Medium Medium As included/connected to info piece As revealed by text-mining;
as reported in literature Novelty High High High Cross-checking with scientific databases. Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises In focused expert review by tracing back on internet (e g. google timeline) As reported by survey respondents;
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Ethical, legal, societal issues Medium High High Expert discussions, futurists symposia,
As reported in raw sources in focused expert review As reported in survey responses, literature and raw sources in focused expert review;
and in literature and synthesised by reviewers. In focused expert review secondary scanning can reveal relevant information.
or of critics As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by narratives in focused expert review.
and stakeholders and usually lead to recommendations As reported in survey responses and in literature. As facilitated by policy workshops Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 219 model-based forecasting.
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