Social-economic, cognitive and political stakeholder image construction The initial justification for involving young people in the vision project
One important aspect of creating an image of young people as primary stakeholders was their social and economic position within the community.
Thus a specific social-economic image of young people as stakeholders was indispensable for their participation.
The assumed lack of spatial and economical interests, however, was accompanied also by a request expressed by the municipal project leadership:
Economic No capitalist interests No ideas about physical projects! Political Their future ideas are unstructured basically and non-reflexive The contributions would need narrative structure
Her main interests are negotiations of economic and social value in future orientation, reflexivity and stakeholder participation as well as collective scenario writing,
but also by economics, innovation studies, organisational studies, linguistics and semiotics, see Van Lente (1993), Brown, Rappert, andwebster (2000), Brown and Michael (2003), Borup et al.
According to The United nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP 2009) good governance has eight major characteristics.
developing organizational foresight in the knowledge economy',11 13 july 2002, University of Strathclyde Graduate school of Business, Glasgow, UK.
In Future-oriented technology analysis strategic intelligence for an innovative economy, ed. C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo,
foresight in the knowledge economy, ed. H. Tsoukas, and J. Shepherd, 77 97. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.
and bio-society (7) Information and communications (8) Understanding and human interaction (9) Materials (10) Global economy Apart from its title, each panel was characterised by a description of about 150
The tenth panel on Global economy was proposed by the Steering Group, further to the recognittio that globalisation is a major determinant of the development of R&i systems.
Apart from covering economic and some other sciences (as a topic of scientific inquiry in their own right), this panel was ascribed a horizontal role
so that it supported the other panels by collecting statistical data on R&i systems and economic forecasts.
and Global economy, among others. 2) Because Finnsight was a comprehensive exercise, it was necessary to ensure that no unintennde omissions would arise due to possible misperceptions about
and economic crisis of 2008 09) was driven by the recognition that Finland is strongly dependent on global developments, due to its relatively small size and the structure of its economy.
Global economy Assessment and management of global risks Impacts of business globalisation on national economies Management of innovation processes panel reports. 5 The first part of the synthesis report summarised selected driving forces
in contrast to Finnsight, focused on somewhat more general questions of societal well-being and economic policy.
Evolving foresight in a small transition economy. Journal of Forecasting 22, nos. 2 3: 179 201.
or to legitimate results but more proactively to embed them in the strategies of organisations across the economy and society.
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.12 O. Saritas, C. Cagnin, A. Havas,
and lock in by historical events, Economic Journal 99 (394)( 1989) 116 131.30 W. B. Arthur, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, University of Michigan Press
European Strategies in Global economy'',Toulouse, July 7 9, 2008.46 B. Kahane, A. Delemarle, L. Villard, P. Lare'do, Knowledge dynamics and agglomeration phenomena:
In an attention economy, products compete with every other product on the market. If a company wants to attain mind share in a large segment of the consumer market,
The observation is a to-the-point example of the continuing expansion of the information economy into the broader service economy and of
what new products will be valuable in that economy. Another abstract K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1087 helps clients reframe design issues by citing designer Dan Formosa
SRIC-BI's staff includes experts with backgrounds in anthropology, business, economics, international affairs, communication arts, marketing, information technology, life sciences,
The second group is distinguished by focus on a particular policy domain, economic or otherwise, and use foresight to develop policy (or business strategy).
For Europe, a wave of foresight activity was associated with the accession of new EU Member States from the so-called‘‘transition economies''.
Estonia and Malta) with the explicit aim of the eforesee project as being‘‘to examine the potential role of foresight in dealing with the structural changes to the economy that accompany the accession process,
which scan macro trends in the economy, society and technology which may impact upon the business and its innovative activities.
While the rationale for innovation policy remains anchored in the Arrow concepts of market failure for many government economists,
However, the approach also emphasises the means by which framework conditions affect complex linkages within and between industries and the influence of social, economic and cultural factors.
Knowledge cluster programmes allow a focus on areas of an economy in which there is potential for innovation
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 287 318.21 A. Sokolov, Identification of national S&t priorities areas with respect to the promotion of innovation and economic growth:
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.25 A. Havas, Devising futures for universities in a multilevel structure:
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.27 Department for Innovation, Universities & Skills, UK, Innovation White paper Innovation Nation, CM7345, March 2008.28 I. Rollwagen, J. Hofmann
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.33 L. Georghiou, Challenging Europe's research, Nature 452 (24)( 2008) 935 936.34 E. Aho, J. Cornu
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research Areag 21 Informative Identification and SWOT analysis of socio-techno-economic trends, drivers and challenges;
and social and economic needs analysis. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of scenarios and social and economic needs.
which separates development issues into social and economic factors, emphasising that material gains are not sufficient measures or preservers of human well-being 14.
a term used by governments to describe material assets that are essential for the functioning of a society and economy (such as electricity generation and distribution, telecommunication, transportation systems, public health, financial services,
and communication technologies (ICT) can make to the economy, society and personal quality of life, "and the ICT priority has the largest budget share of the current European RTD Framework programme (FP7:
economy, Society and Culture, vol. 1, Blackwell, Malden, 1996.16 European commission, Green Paper on the convergence of the telecommunications, media and information technology sectors,
A whole class of economic models, routinely used to inform policy, are based on assumptions about economic affairs tending towards equilibrium that have very little relation with the behaviour of businesses (especially innovating enterprises).
Of course, Newtonian mechanics work well enough for everyday purposes, so their displacement of Einstein's theory of relativity may not be too bothersome.
when invoking conventional economic models for short-term analysis and forecasting, at least in less turbulent times.
Often, something like the STEEPV approach in which people are asked to identify factors and issues under the headings social, technological, economic, environmental, political,
(and time) to examine the underpinning assumptions of models (not to mention intellectual familiarity with the conceptual underpinnings of social and economic models).
SWAMI took a more critical approach to the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical implications surrounding such issues as privacy, control of information, and identity.
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.2 W. Bell, J. K. Olick, An epistemology for the futures field:
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.5 M. Rader, A. Porter, Fitting future-oriented analysis methods to study types, in:
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy,, Springer, Berlin, 2008.6 I. Miles, From Futures to Foresight, in: L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,
Securing Competitive advantage in the Information Economy, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1999.19 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 1995.20 R. Dawson, Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships, Butterworth-Heinemann, London, 2000.21 A. Eerola, B. H
, A. Geldart, The social and economic challenges of nanotechnology, Swindon Economic and Social science Research council, 2003 (available at:
from the Science to the Social the social, ethical and economic aspects of the debate, Swindon, Economic and Social research Council, 2007 (available at http://www. esrc. ac. uk/ESRCINFOCENTRE/Images
but in human societies it has perceptual and physical components infecting matters relating to society, science and technology, economics, ecology, politics and value/norms:
and technology development and economics always prevails, instead. The history of governance is concerned mostly with how the public's perception of technological innovation has grown over time.
The relationship between advances in technology and human social development was established during the Enlightenment well before the notion of‘economics'was born as a cultural invention, rather than as a pseudo-objective science.
long-wave (Kondratieff)‘ theory,'Schumpeterian‘gales of creative destruction',Nelson and Winter's evolutionary economics and much else besides.
The challenge to the conventional mantra that economic not human, development, depends on the advancement of science
Some features may be the inclusion of the principles of industrial ecology and its near relative ecological economics.
economic and juridical decisions in a dialogue process with the political authorities. Governance and regulatory concepts imply a modified description of what regulation is and how it works, where the regulatory limits of state authority and the potential of society to influence
to promote a continuous and closer interface between the state, the economy and society. Yet, COM 10 claims that governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis in Europe and elsewhere.
other than their shareholders and their economic performance, to take society's, and the environment's interests into account.
‘growth'economics that subjugates social, cultural, political and environmental matters towards the consequences of economic growth.
economic; spatial; cultural; and institutional-political: the interdependencies among the major elements are suggested in Fig. 2. The social response to sustainability,
an emphasis on environment and community stewardship often invoking the so-called triple bottom line of economic, social,
Descriptive research suggests that managers focus on the economic dimension of CSR revealing two shortcomings on firms'approach CSR
Nevertheless, companiesmust ensure theirown economic survival in a competitive and volatile business environment while dealing with social and environmental issues 31.
thus reinforcing corporate strategy by advancing social conditions creating economic and social shared value. 5. 4. Strategic corporate social responsibility
and addressing social constraints to competitiveness are powerful tools for creating economic and social value,
society and corporate activity A central assumption behind innovation systems theory is that knowledge is the fundamental resource in the modern economy
The headline message from the 2006 World Economic Forum at Davos was that we are shifting from a world characterised increasingly by resource constraints to one which
thus social and economic goals into alignment and improving a firm's long-term business prospect. 6 Responsive CSR comprises two elements 29:
On the same theme The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 opened with calls from the Co-Chairs to exercise‘‘The Power of Collaborative Innovation''to meet the top challenges of economic instability, climate change and equitable growth.
So how does the practical reality of participation of social and economic agents and civil society at large, in the new institutions and procedures look like?
7. 2. FTA for corporate decision making The challenges faced by corporations reflect the structural changes taking place in the economy and society.
A new global setting of the world economy is defining the framework for operation of the industrial sector both inside the national boundaries and internationally.
In business this is summarised as the triple bottom line or the creation of shared value through reconciling economic
This also raises the need for board evaluation measures against corporate and societal objectives as well as on the effect of stakeholders'communication and participation on management, transparency, performance (economic, environmental and social),
Any new mantra for FTA needs to recognise the obsolescence of the conventional mantra of invention and innovation as primary supports to‘growth'economics.
The conventional economic mantra has persisted far beyond its‘sell by'date, a point made forcefully at least as early as 1972 in the publication of the‘‘Limits to Growth''38.
The shift towards a new mantra based on ecological economics began at least as early as 1968
The marriage of the principles of industrial ecology and those of ecological economics, and its influence on globalisation, glocalisation and governance,
By engaging actively in shaping the move from the current paradigm of‘growth'economics to that of ecological economics and industrial ecology
Towards a New Modernity, Sage, London, 1992.3 F. Soddy, Cartesian Economics: The Bearing of Physical science on State Stewardship, Hendersons, 1922.4 F. Soddy, Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt, George Allen and Unwin, 1926.5 H Kahn, W. Brown
The World's Political-Economic system, Basic books, 1977.9 Y. K. Sheng, What is good governance? United nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (2008.
10 COM, European Governance: A White paper, Commission of the European communities, 2001.11 J. P. Olsen, Reforming European institutions of governance, Journal of Common market studies 40 (2002) 581 602.12 W. Ulrich, Critical systems
Fourth Report on Economic and Social Cohesion, European communities, 2007.20 C. H. Cagnin, An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
literature review and research options, European Management Journal 23 (1)( 2005) 27 36.31 U. Steger, A. Ionescu-Somers, O. Salzmann, The economic foundations of corporate
Press, 1972.39 H. E. Daly, On economics as a life science, Journal of Political economy 76 (3)( 1968) 392 406 (later papers and books followed in 1972,1973, 1974,1977, 1990,1992
40 H. Z. Evan, Seminar at Economic Commission of Europe, Warsaw, 1973.41 F. Davitaya, Changes in the Atmosphere and Some Problems of its Protection, in Society and the Environment:
Strategic intelligence for An Innovative economy, Springer, 2008. C. Cagnin et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 291
For this purpose, looking at the survey results we suggested a STEEP (Social-Cultural, Science & Technology, Energy, Ecology and Economy,
H2, nukes) 4. Ecology-Economy State of Global Finance Trade, Debt and Related Globalization Issues BRIC Rapid Development Economies Climate change, Global Warming=sustainable ecology, new economy 5. Geopolitics & Security East-West
, North-South Issues, Governance, Health of Democracy, Failed States Global, Cyber terrorism & Nuclear & Bio WMD Water, Food and Resource Shortages, Disasters O. Saritas,
Balance was distributed well with economy-ecology leading but S&t, geopolitics, security and culture close behind;
bio-neural evolution, rising new economic leaders and directions, reduced personal privacy; These are described both in terms of challenges and potential opportunities for civilization.
fuel cells and nuclear) Shift in travel patterns due to energy prices and ICT alternatives Solar energy meets grid parity Ecology Economy 82 Increased frequency of economic crises
Increased tensions for R&d ownership Solid waste limits industrial activities and life in urban centres Capital shift from‘‘W to E''to‘‘E to W''Continued rise of Asia as economic,
Ecology and Economy; and Geopolitics and Security (STEEP. Furthermore, high impact assessment is more prevalent among the more highly experienced respondents(>10 years.
Strong emphasis again on ecology-environment and economy with Society and Culture and S&t close behind;
Personalised, genetic and molecular medicine are likely to drive many changes in health economics, and possible migration of energy sourcing to more efficient and sustainable modes may be available sooner than thought.
and climate change lead to descent scenarios Ecology Economy 50 Global financial imbalances create national commercial rivalries China's role in international affairs:
and response of the US toward China's growth Kyoto protocol full implementation Political resistance to economic globalization and deregulation Rising economies demand for energy, electricity drives modernisation
and puts extreme stress on infrastructure Economic measures to meet international environmental commitments Growing localisation in response to supply chain vulnerability Foreign affairs fail to be harmonised to cope with global issues Patterns
shift to alternatives Ecology Economy 32 Global trade conflicts intensify between developed and developing countries Civil war in China Unexpected freeze of northern hemisphere pushes population to immigrate south G8
because of oil price increase causes travel decline Nano-facilitated energy conversion alters energy economic mix Ecology Economy 7 Western world becomes a national/corporate welfare state BRICS rapidly overtake western economy
& Security 8 Europe becomes the most competitive economy in the world WW3 Nanotechnology and
Economy 27 Widening the rift between rich and poor More rights of China Induced migration due to inundation and climate change Price hikes in energy,
''It was argued that many foresight studies had pointed to the possibility of a collapse in the global economic system 2
and coherence of the response of national governments to the emerging economic difficulties was evidence that appropriate anticipatory intelligence was in place and available.‘‘
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.7 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, M. Rader, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
as economies and societies become more globalized. Innovation is both a source of and response to disruptive transformations
Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Introduction Transport is highly crucial to economic wealth and quality of life.
At the same time, the transport system is confronted with many challenges that reduce economic vitality and quality of life such as climate change, the emission of pollutants and noises, accidents, congestion;
‘‘structurally open''versus‘‘structurally closed''The transport system is embedded in the broader social, economic and environmental systems.
Consequences of global warming on economic growth Effects of speed limits on emissions and number of accidents Health problems caused by noise
Building on the work of the German Risk Commission (Risk Commission 2003), in the context of this paper risk is understood, in its economic/toxicological/engineering sciences definition,
At the more or less blurred borderlines, other systems (energy system, land-use patterns and economic system) are attached and interact.
or an extension to pure CBA in cases where important effects cannot be monetised MCA allows decision makers to include a full range of social, environmental, technical, economic,
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, pp. 1-13. Commission of the European communities (2008), Action Plan for the Deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems in Europe.
Runde, J. 1998),‘Clarifying Frank Knight's discussion of the meaning of risk and uncertainty'',Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 22, pp. 539-46.
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, pp. 149-62. Therivel, R. 2004), Strategic Environmental Assessment in Action, Earthscan, London.
B Finnish economy will grow markedly by 2050, but the structure of the economy can change.
B Low-carbon technology will improve significantly in all sectors by 2050. B Prices of fossil fuels will rise
as they deal with deeply habitual behaviour and complex connections between social, political, environmental and economic factors.
relying on heavy industry Economic growth Stable growth Stable growth Slow growth Stable growth Basis of economic structure (industry) Energy scarce service sector,
industrial ecology Search for innovations to boost economic growth and improve the state of the environment VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 311 numbers can also easily be considered as neutral
and 3. economy, employment, entrepreneurship and wellbeing. The Committee also paid attention in its statement to the fact that the government foresight report chose as its only starting point the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.
In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
possibility of degrowth economy (since wellbeing was considered to be at least on the present levels, this would mean that in the future wellbeing is defined in a different fashion from today) was presented in scenario B. In the final publication of the results of the scenario process this notion was replaced with stable growth.
Seen from the present situation in particular after the global financial crises, the anticipated possibility of degrowth economy is not an insignificant option
Notes 1. Summary of the strategy is available on the web site of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy:
sirkka. heinonen@utu. fi Ville Lauttama ki holds a Master's degree in Economics and Business administration from the Turku School of economics and is currently preparing his Phd in Economic Sociology at the University of Turku.
Lauttama ki works as a Researcher at the Finland futures research centre of the University of Turku. He has worked on a number of futures-oriented research and development projects with several Finnish ministries and security organisations and in several EU-funded research projects.
When the technology becomes part of our economic and social system, social impacts can be observed. However, changing/controlling the technological development becomes extremely difficult.
An integral part of the Nanoned programme (3%of the budget) is the assessment of social, political, economical and environmental/health issues.
NGO's and other societal actors articulate the social, political and economic aspects of the new technological field.
and thus, will have an impact in all areas of economic activities (examples are the materials production industry, pharmaceutical industry, electronics industry).
Still, there are huge economic incentives to shrink devices further, because the speed, density and efficiency of microelectronic devices all rise rapidly as the minimum feature size decreases.
Economy, Pinter, London, 1984, pp. 78 101.4 J. M. Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1994.16 For example, one of the components
Eburon, 1993.11 B. Latour, Science in Action, Open University Press, Milton Keynes, 1987.12 OECD, Technology and the economy:
the key relationships, The Technology/Economy Programme, Paris, 1992.13 A. H. Arnall, Future technologies, Today's Choices:
Socio-demographic, economic and technological changes were taking place at a fast speed with nonlinear patterns
and project long-term social, economic and technological developments and needs. 2. Vision. Foresight elaborates a guiding strategic vision,
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2001. However, the reciprocal relations that may develop between the sustainable development paradigm
economic models and public policies towards SD. 2. Horizontal axis. Showed the availability of resources needed to achieve the sustainable development goals in the future.
This axis included all critical uncertainties regarding the abundance or scarcity of technological, economic, human, institutional, and natural resources.
In this pattern, there is a reorganisation of spare economic resources towards nonprofit and Third Sector activities.
integrated economy into the global markets. The Spanish economy is balanced more and diversified than 20 years ago when it was dominated by the construction and tourism sectors.
Scenario B: predator development (circa 2025. This scenario occurs when resources of all types are abundant,
compared to its economic and consumption requirements. The successive emergence of new technological innovations seems to conjure up environmental threats
Despite the economic cycle's ups and downs, the Spanish economy keeps growing at an acceptable rate.
economic achievements have been at the expense of high environmental costs, social inequities and territorial imbalances. Scenario C:
Public and private agents are fully aware of the need for sustainable development due to a lack of response by the economic and technological realm.
In this scenario, economic growth is very low or even null, and commercial flows are very weak.
The stagnation experienced by the Spanish economy is similar to the one suffered by most European countries.
Forlearn Online Guide (n d.)and Millennium Project (n d.))shows that most scenarios exercises conclude with a description of the geopolitical, economic, societal and technological contexts.
This scenario generates strong environmental and social impacts due to a model based on strong economic growth and intense consumption (see Figure 5). Public policies related to urban development are implemented not effectively because of social and economic pressures.
They mostly provide general guidelines about sustainable development that may or may not be followed by local governments. Municipal policies are implemented strictly through norms and regulations.
In fact, economic policies and growing social requirements dictate the need for new infrastructure and buildings. Citizens'needs are assumed
frequent disputes between political, social and economic stakeholders hinder consensus. Horizontal elements such as legislation, technology and management are weak in the first stages of the planning stages,
when economic and environmental crises are recurrent, resources are scarce and social attitudes are very favourable towards the implementation of strict SD models (see Figure 6). Due to difficulties in enacting
A strong government, backed by a wide spectrum of the electorate, is formed to implement effective policies against the economic and environmental crisis. Regional
Due to a long economic recession and the scarcity of resources, social movements of all types and conditions have gained momentum to the point that they can counterbalance the power of political parties and the influence of economic agents.
The predominant philosophy of the‘‘green paradigm''scenario will be to thrive in economic and social terms with lower consumption of energy, water and natural resources.
algorithm Economy Unemployment rate hab(%)14.2 Very low 5. 1 Low 7. 3 Very high 16.4 Simple mathematical algorithm Predominant economic sectors%Basic
and forestry activities 37 Economic trend analysis Electric energy consumption MWH/pc (annual) 3. 98 Medium 4 Medium-high 4. 9 Low
3. 1 Simple mathematical algorithm Economic growth K GDP(%)annual) 24.3 Sustained 2. 1 Strong 3. 7 Negative 24.4 Econometric model
stated in 2. 1 Economy Unemployment rate. The percentage of the total labour force that is unemployed
but actively seeking employment and willing to work Predominant economic sectors. Percentage of predominant activity in relation to the total number of existing jobs Electric energy consumption.
Megawatts hour of electricity per inhabitant consumed in a year Economic growth. Increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measures of aggregate income, typically reported as the annual rate of change in real GDP Environment Selective collection of solid waste.
In the‘‘back to basics''scenario, sustainable development will be imperative due to the lack of energy resources and low economic activity.
and economic policies that create employment. People from the big metropolis will migrate to the countryside in search of job opportunities.
Figure 8 Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 329 B Build a new economic model that is environment-friendly
B Foster a dynamic economic system with energy renewable sources. B Channel the growing demand for mobility by people and goods through the construction of new environment-friendly transport infrastructure.
Suggested strategies for Scenario C. The back to basics scenario is dominated by a high level of social frustration due to a longstanding economic recession and the lack of an adequate response by previous governments.
B Build a social fortress based on family networks and Third Sector organizations to survive in a tough economic context.
so as to promote the SD concept amongst citizens, economic agents and public bodies. Whichever scenario materialises in the near future, the sustainability paradigm in Spain will be achieved,
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2001), Les lignes directrices du CAD Strate'gies de de'veloppement durable, Organisation for Economic Co
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