These grand challenges include the dynamics of demograpphic (ageing and migration), food supply, environmentta sustainability, climate change, decarbonised economic systems, poverty, terrorism, not to mention the continuing fallout from the long-running‘global financial crisis':
such as social or economic structural transformations). Drivers of dynamic processes of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
These included the continuing adaptation of FTA to the changing economic and policy environment. This is instanced by the recent reframing of FTA from contributing to evidence-based policy towards a greater emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives.
understanndin and preparing for the effects of climate change and the associated development of a decarbonised global economic system:
Its inception was part of government efforts to promote science, technology and innovation (ST&I) develoopmen in Brazil in order to advance economic growth, competitiveness and well-being.
11 strategic foresight exercises to enhance the competitiveenes of the Brazilian industrial sector in the global economy:
FINEP's mission entails promoting economic and social development in Brazil through public funding for the development of ST&I.
techno-economic, strategic, environmental and social Identification of an initial list of 63 technological topics Identification of seven priority technological topics, considdere‘robust'Multi-criteria analysis:
This should include social and cultural aspects associated with GMO commercial use and consumption in agricultural and health sectors Future economic and social impacts of GMO technologies;
Developing Organisational Foresight in the Knowledge Economy, held Glasgow, Scotland, 11 3 july 2002. Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H. 2001)‘ Alemanha:
which shape priority-setting in transition economies. Keywords: China, science policy, research, innovation. 1. Introduction and problem definition In recent years, there has been a rapidly growing interest in the development of science, technology and innovation (STI) in the People's republic of china.
and the firm-centered phase (OECD 2008)( see Fig. 1). The 1978 National science Conference coincided with the launch of the economic reform
As China started the transition from a planned economy to a market economy, this entailed a reconstruction of the S&t institutes as well as the universities and, in particular,
of the economic system in 1984, of the S&t system in 1985, and of the education system in 1985.
The decision on‘acceleration of progress in S&t'marked a further step towards orienting S&t towards China's social and economic needs
Throughout the era, Chinese leaders have pointed to science as a key to economic progress and competitiveness, most recently through the concept of‘scientific development'and the launching of the indigennou innovation strategy (e g.
The National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance influennc S&t policy-making through their responsibilities for overall economic policy and the budget, respectively.
as well as economic and societal development. The latest MLP was presented in February 2006 and lasts until 2020.
supporting economic and social development (zhicheng fazhan), leading the future (yinling weilai). Priorities expreesse in the MLP include‘strategic priorities'(zhanlue Research priority setting in China. 261 zhongdian),
The 16 Mega-engineering Projects identified in the last MLP are selected clearly missionorieented to address major economic and societal needs,
its major goal is to address pressing S&t issues for national economic and social development. 5 Finally,
In recent years, we have seen an increasing orientation by the NSFC towards funding economic and socially relevant research
The objectives are to produce groundbreaking research that addresses importaan scientific issues concerning national economic and social development.
As a result, there is a severe shortage of innovation funding, particulaarl for private firms and for SMES (The Economist 2009;
The five-year plans are the most obvious and structured tool of China's economic planning process in the sense that that it is clear to everyone
In contrast, some economists, such as Justin Yifu Lin, argued that the country should continue to rely on China's comparative advantages (Lin et al. 2003.
‘Feet on the ground'(lidi) means that Chinese S&t should be targeted at China's strategic economic, social and national defense needs.
Furthermore, the increasing research investments are expected to provide the foundattio for future economic growth, to enable the restructuring of industry from low-tech to high-tech,
but also a society balancing economic growth with social stabillit and ecological balance. With every wave we find a broader and more encompassing portfolio of priorities,
The Economist. 2009)‘ China's struggling smaller firms. Small fish in a great pond',10 september 2009..(
Dasgupta, P. and Stoneman, P. eds) Economic policy and technological Performance, pp. 51 97. New york: Cambridge university Press.
The Impact of Economic Ideas on RTD Policies, 4s/EASST Conference 2000, held 27 30 september 2000, Vienna.
Laredo, P. and Mustar, P.,(eds),(2001) Research and Innovation policy in the New Global economy. Cheltenham:
Development strategy and Economic Reform,(revised edn. Hong kong and Beijing: Chinese University Press. Liu, L. 2009) Research priorities and priority-setting in China.
Implications for American Competitiveness'prepared for US China Economic and Security review Commission, <http://www. uscc. gov/researchpapers/2011/USCC REPORT China's program for Science and technology modernization. pdf>accessed 25 may 2011.
of a dynamic network interact in a specific economic or industrial arena which is under specific institutional infrastrucctures The interactions of the actors in the network are both market and non-market.
The Economic Dynamics of Modern Biotechnology, pp. 20 42. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Cai, H.-Q. 2007) The King of watermelon:
Freeman, C. 1987) Technology policy and Economic Performance: Lessons from Japan. Pinter: London. Giesecke, S. 2000)‘ The contrasting roles of government in the development of biotechnology industry in the US and Germany',Research policy, 29: 205 23.
The Economic Dynamics of Modern Biotechnology, p. 319. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Lee, S.-J. and Hua, J. 2004)‘ The economic evaluation of the food industry using biotechnology'(.
'Taipeij: Food Industry Research and development Institute. Lin, J.-Y. 1995)‘ The experiments and research of Taiwan's Agriculture Experiment Station within recent one hundred years'(.
The Economic Dynamics of Modern Biotechnology, pp. 99 134. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Science and Technology research and Information Center (2005)‘ Strategic planning on the development of Taiwan agricultural biotechnology industry'(.
responsible (going beyond profit and economic competitiveness to safeguard social and environmennta goals), and social (for the public good) innovation (Depledge et al. 2010).
i e. large firms, small and medium-sized enterprises, the public sector, the social economy and citizens themselves (CEC 2010).
In the same vein, three PPPS were established under the European Economic Recovery Plan to help industries that were hit severely by the economic recession (Factories of the Future, Energy efficient Buildings and Green Cars.
Bach, L. and Matt, M. 2005)‘ From economic foundations to S&t policy tools: A comparative analysis of the dominant paradigms'.
Matt, M. and Llerena, P. eds) Innovation policy in a Knowledge Based Economy: Theories and Practises, pp. 17 40.
Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R.,eds,(2008) Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy.
2010)‘ Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social, Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union',SEC (2010) 1161
Freeman, C. and Soete, L. 1997) The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd edn. London: Pinter.
Hall, B. H. and Rosenberg, N. 2010) Handbook of the Economics of Innovation. Amsterdam: North Holland, Elsevier.
Smith, K. 2000)‘ What is the knowledge economy? Knowledge-intensive industries and distributed knowledge bases',Paper prepared as part of the project‘Innovation policy in a knowledge-based economy'commissioned by the European commission.
Available at:<<http://www. druid. dk/uploads/tx picturedb/ds2000-123. pdf, >accessed August 2007. Stirling, A.,Geels, F.,Scrase,
Disruptive events may stem from‘natural'to‘man-made'causes (financial and economic crises or social upheaval such as the Arab spring.
Similarly, in many respects, breakthrough technologies due to developments in information and communiccatio technologies and nano-and biotechnologies have disruptive impacts on economies, markets and innovative consumer goods and services.
Economies, sociopolitical and ecological systems are consequently under pressure to adapt, and undergo major structural and systemic shifts to new
The need to transform current systems is heightened by emerging global trends, in particular democratic crises in many societies worldwide, the growing political and economic power of Brazil, Russia, India and China,
Disruptive events highlight the vulnerability of governannc and economic systems at local, national, European and global levels in the face of sudden crises and point to serious shortcomings in our ability to anticipate
Economic challenges correspoon to the agenda set out by the Aho Group (European commission 2006) and call for a combination of supply-side
high-impact issues that challenge societal and economic health. Recognised grand challenge areas are‘grand'in the sense that they are instantly recognisable as representing a major aspect of human
Thirdly, two types of transformation can come into effect by design where change processes are planned and implemented, for example economic structural transformation or social change.
economic and political to social (pervasive and quick to diffuse with longer term effects emerging over time)
Alternatively, the governance system may adopt a co-existence mode until abrupt changes such as an economic crisis,
and innovattio as a means of generating economic growth. FTA systems both affect and are affected by shifts in governance modes.
Driven by the need to explore certain technological, economic or societal developments of major concern to decision-makers,
‘intelligent piggybacking'approach is much more suitable for smaller catching-up economies than the traditional‘grand narratives'approach typically employed in larger advanced economies to define future developments at the cutting edge of a given field of technology.
systemic and structural transformation of organisations'premises and practices, with the ultimate goal of handling current and future technological, economic and societal challenges in line with the goals defined by the organisation.
and constraints imposed by novel developments such as the current economic and financial crisis. However, the coordination mode of governance that seems to be on rise in Europe see for instance the debates on European Innovation Partnerships
As long as it is possible to anticipate the causes of any economic social or environmental crisis, society is in a position to address them beforehand,
Emerging shortages of food, water and other resources, due to demographic trends and human activities, will have far reaching economic and social consequences,
Complex systems, like the global economy, entail emergent properties that can radically transform the system (e g. Funtowitz and Ravetz 1994.
Skoufias, E. 2003)‘ Economic crises and natural disasters: Coping strategies and policy implications',World Development, 31: 1087 102.
Tiits, M. and Kalvet, T. 2011)‘ Foresight as an innovation policy tool in smaller catching-up economies:
The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
Whilst such regional actions are dictated frequently by economic interests, they can have a considerable impact on the funding
This is a particular challenge in times of economic constraint where countries look to science to address their immediate needs for national growth.
The present range of options extends from market-based economies to stronger developmental state intervention to communism,
The impact of emerging economies and possible new collaborations will see a changing international science landscape.
of labour leads to intense specialisation of countries'economies Governments compete to host the R&d facilities of multinationals through large R&d investments Public science focused on basic research that multinationals are less likely to perform themselves Strong global networks
Thirdly, the literature on technological systems places the emphasis on networks of agents in a specific economic or industrial sector and the particular institutional infrastructure involved in the generaatio and diffusion of technology (Carlsson and Stankiewicz 1991.
Social and economic costs created by emissiion and pollution are not always easy to allocate to those who generate them.
Altogether nine economic sectors were analysed and roadmapped in the project. In Fig. 3 we illustrate the outlines of the green and intelligent buildings roadmap in the Victoria Technology roadmap project.
Sustainability, in an integrative sense combining issues of economic growth, social progress, and environmennta protection, is a rising topic in the emerging markets of the Victorian construction industry.
A further driver is a demographic change in advanced economies that is reflected in the residential housing sector The aging population requires the adaptation of homes
Demographic change in advanced economies DRIVERS: Support to strategy processes and global market foresight MARKETS: Sub-optimisation, price dominates;
Optimizing systems Increasing awareness of global consequences of climate change Economic recession Emission trading starts to have effect on companies Rising living standards in BRIC countries Green values:
Economic incentives Increasing prices of energy and raw materials No regulation or economic incentives governmental activities do not encourage the utilization of sustainable ICTS Systemic issues:
accessible and economical energy generation (using renewablles) distribution and consumption both in households and business/industry.
The second is the economic recession. Recession is empathetically a double-edged phenomenon: it can be a driver for environmental solutions by focusing on issues such as the reduction of materials
Furthermore, basic demand-side policies, like public procureement can be utilized in the context of green ICT as well as economic incentives. 5. 3. 3 Sectoral development.
and composition of technological systems',Journal of Evolutionary economics, 1: 93 118. Da Costa, O.,Warnke, P.,Cagnin, C. and Scapolo, F. 2008)‘ The impact of foresight on policy-making:
and exploit synergy in an urbanised Europe, from an economic, social, environmental and transport-related perspective, leading to a
Securing Our Economic growth and Prosperity.<<http://www. whitehouse. gov/innovation strategy>accessed 15 march 2012.3. For an analysis of the link between innovation strategies and economic performance, see Dahlman (2008.
4. The four steps used by ERA NET (European research area-NET) are:.systematic exchange of information and good practices on existing programmes and activities. identification and analysis of common strategic issues. planning and development of joint activities between national and regional programmes. implementation
economy, mobility, environment and ecology. 31. The UEF aims to establish a continuous dialogue between stakeholders
<http://economics. ouls. ox. ac. uk/14015/>accessed 15 march 2012. Edquist, C.,ed.,(1997) Systems Innovation:
Havas, A. 2003)‘ Evolving foresight in a small transition economy: The design, use and relevance of foresight methods in Hungary',Journal of Forecasting, 22: 179 203.
Department Economic and Scientific Policy, European parliament (IP/A/ITRE/FWC/2006-87/LOT3/C1. Strasbourg:
the vast majority of people appear to be vulnerable to social and economic instability and hostility due to the economic recession, lack of fresh water, shortages of food and energy, climate change, regional conflicts,
The main focus of this activity has been to address new and emerging technological areas that may have an impact on social, economic,
society or economy in combination with a need for present-day (policy) decisions to prevent, mitigate or stimulate the foreseen impact.
even though economic models completely failed to forecast the financial crisis of 2007 8, even in the shortest term.
policy-makers downgraded the importance of the specific issue by maintaiinin their faith in the reassuring messages from the economic planning agencies (van Rij 2010b).
JRC-IPTS and BEPA refined these areas through close interaction to accommodate a more comprehensive analysis across all economic sectors and responsibilities of BEPA.
demography, migration and health. economy, trade and financial flows. environment, energy, climate change and agriculture. research, innovation and (e)- education.
global governance. natural capital. society. economy. By the end of the workshop, a workable agreement had been reached on the definition of the following three overarcchin challenges:.
between the current methods of production, consumption and the future availability of nonreneewabl resources. between a general and simultaneous process of increasing economic interdependence and differentiation. between spatial proximity in the context of accelerated urbanisation
and invade patterns of civilisation, technology, economy, and value systems. Megatrends have a half-life of at least 50 years,
in which teams from different Fraunhofer knowledge domains worked towards Table 2. Megatrends in society, environment and economy Globalisation/localisation (And lack of control) of trade, capital and terrorism;
2011)‘ Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee fo the Regions'.
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