i) policy and governance,(ii) international Industrial r&d,(iii) knowledge society and (iv) environmental sustainability; 5. Positioning the scenario snapshots within the defined framework.
industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
'The paper presents a conceptual framework outlining the major characteristics of emerging knowledge societies, based on a review of the available literature.
and challenges are prodding European universities to undergo a series of reforms to position themselves as relevant players in the knowledge society.
and finally the recognition of the close relationship between Science, Technology and Society due to the limits to the‘plasticity'of the society,
Proceedings of the 2010 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, IEEE Computer Society, 2010.23 E. Von Hippel, Lead users:
Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Italy, 2002.64 K. Linard, C. Fleming, L. Dvorsky, System dynamics as the link between corporate vision
Proceeding 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New york, 2003.66 A. Butler, S. R. Letza, B. Neale, Linking the balanced scorecard to strategy, Long Range
a research and consultancy institute in the area of delta technology. 4 WINN was supposed to‘‘engage on a joint search with the country's society, business community and scientific sector for durable and innovative combinations of the use and space and society''.
Society and Policy. Technology assessment: Methods and Impacts. Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg, New york. Eerola, A and I Miles 2008.
society (including demographical issues) without public services; S&t (including S&t policy; economy and finance (including its governance;
A Table 2. Subcategories Society S&t Economy and finance Environment (ecological) Politics, government, public services Social values S&t reflection Market Hydrosphere Legitimacy-democracy
Medicine Table 1 Main categories used in the different scans Categories Netherlands UK Denmark Social context Society (including public services) Culture Work life People R&d
emerging challenges for society, but also for promising opportunities, some of which may originate in new or Emerging s&t findings and insights.
there is a large effort to spread good practiic to other parts of government and society. In The netherlands the aim is to contribute to the future orientaatio of policies towards sustainability,
but also in different other societal value dimensions (health, longevity, human rights, social cohesion, law-based democratic society, international relations etc.).
as well as the scientific communnit and society. In The netherlands the approach used can be descrribe as the cluster approach (see Figure 2). This started with the assembling of clusters of issues with potentially impact-rich interactions.
of 366 proposals from the general Sigma Scan development Activity Engagements Output Scan the scans Categorise data Create the E-database Society
consisting of representaative from trade and industry, the public sector and civil society. The final selection of themes was made by a stakeholder workshop.
Issue (or PTO) selection is therefore based on likelihood and estimated impact on the future of our society.
consultation and debate) that will lead to implementable policies (policies that achieve governmment'goals while meeting society's expectatioons) In this way,
In The netherlands scan, explicit attention was given to the sustainability of society in the light of different sets of shared societal values for
The final proposal Dialogue with involved parties from research and society Final research themes RESEARCH2015 catalogue Figure 3. Design of the Danish OECD DAST horizon scan Source:
developmental policy and technology) and to establish the interface between policy, research and society. An important tool of these sector counciil was participative foresight that developed over time
and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting. COS had the task of facilitating cross-departmental foresight
and Innovation that aims to promoot research and innovation of a high international standard for the benefit of Danish society, facilitating development in economic,
2006), also due to more general problems around the interaction of scientific advice, government and society (De Wit, 2005) it is clear that horizon scanning is seen as a valued but also vulnerable learning process (DEFRA,
Danish society in the future. In addition to this we may assume that the process which contained many experts
scans Society 18.5 22.4 7. 5 15.6 S&t 16.4 8. 8 15.1 13.7 Economy/finance 21.2 21 6 18.9 20.5 Environment
the comparison shows that the Dutch scan somehow seems to fall short on issues from the society domain Joint horizon scanning Science
Finnsight 2015, the outlooo for science technology and society. Summary available from<http://www. aka. fi/Tiedostot/Tiedostot/Julkaisut/Finnsight 2015 en. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Methodology of Boundary work at the interface of science policy and society, basis for a manual, RMNO, ISBN 90.72377.62.1.
Identification of Key emerging Issues in Science and Society: an International Perspecctiv on National foresight Studies.
which will become key to competiitiv advantage in a knowledge-based society, causing disruptions in selected markets
resulting in a set of 36 uncertain issues and open questions in six thematic blocks (see Table 1). Experts were asked to assess the importance of each thesis in different dimensions (economic, scientific, society,
Open innovation society: a situation where all Figure 4. Positioning of the four scenarios Competitive business environment Oligopolistic business environment Negative public attitude towards creative content, lack of demand Positive public
attitude towards creative content, demand Incumbents take it all Incumbents take it All the open innovation society Society meets industry IT is not cool,
Society meets industry: intermediate scenario between the previous two assuming that the creatiiv content sector is transformed rather than revolutionised.
need-driven) Understanding the interaction between technology and the society. e g. what is enhanced? made obsolescent?
Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society.
IT and cognitive sciences (NBIC) and that these converging technologies could radically change society, econoom and culture in the next 20 years.
2004) directed to the application of converging technologies to development of a Europeea knowledge society. This report contains the pragmatic definition:
Shaping the Future of European Societies. Report by High-level Expert Group on‘Foresighting the New technology Wave'.
and society and the notion of user-driven innovattion We then explore the implications for traditional innovation and development processes.
Theoretical perspectives Interplay between technological and societal forces The relationship between technology and society has already been studied from various perspectives.
It largely ascribes changes in society to technological advances, which are assumed thus to have important social consequences (Haddon et al.,
which is dedicated to the adoption and diffusion of new technologies in society. Technollog adoption is assumed to follow a predictable path
Drawing on a number of theoretical frameworks that have studied the relationship between technology and users/society in greater depth,
Cutler, Marks, Meylan, Smith and Koivisto take the view that science will play a key role in society's response to emergent global grand challenges such as resource scarcity and global environmental change.
the transition to a sustainabbl society, health and lifestyles, agri-food or the development of new defence tools.
and Vilkkumaa discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning in order to shape systemic policies to address major challennges Due to the increasing complexity of modern societies,
Individual participation in subjects affecting society as a whole is therefore ever more intense. Thus, not only discussions about the need for social engageemen in the decision-making process emerge,
in a knowledge-based society, democratic governance must ensure that citizens are able to make an informed choice from the options made available to them by responsible scientific and technological progress.
as well as practical orientattion contained in the Handbook of Knowledge society Foresight (Miles et al. 2002) and in Godet (2001).
The present authors hope to expand this experiienc to other cultures, societies and realities. These three types differ in the following aspects:.
World Future Society. Godet, M. 2001) Creating Futures Scenario planning as a Strategic management Tool. Washington: Economica.
Miles, I.,Keenan, M. and Kaivo-Oja, J. 2002) Handbook of Knowledge society Foresight. Manchester: Prest.
*and Sylvia Schwaag Serger1 1lund University research Policy Institute, P o box 117, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden, 2institute of Science, Technology and Society, School of Humanities
In most‘mature'research systems in Western societies, several models for priority-setting exist side by side: floor funding to universities,
and academmic as‘respectable'members of society after they had been reviled and attacked during the Cultural Revolution and laying the foundation for a politically favorable environmmen for S&t.
The Chinese government's programmatic and overarching emphasis on a‘harmonious society'and, more recently,
but also a society balancing economic growth with social stabillit and ecological balance. With every wave we find a broader and more encompassing portfolio of priorities,
for instance‘harmonious society'and‘indigennou innovation',indicating the contributions and frameworks of STI governance with broader policy process.
A comparison with India and the United states',Technology in Society, 30: 319 29. OECD. 2003)‘ Priority setting:
technology and innovation (STI) systems might be reoriented to better address several grand challenges that affect not only contemporary societies but also the future of human civilisation itself.
governments and societies to align and Orienting European innovation systems. 143 evolve into this new direction, identifying alternative solutiion and moving away from the current state of affairs.
and facilitate more effective public dialogue beyond the usual suspects by engaging new entrants, small business, wider stakeholders and civil society.
for example, requires not only surpassing long-established vested interests in certain resources but also a change in the behaviour, norms and values of societies.
It is an emergent trend encouraging activities that generate mutual benefit to business and society or the natural environment (Bright et al. 2006.
More broadly, FTA can raise awareness and sensitise society towards sustainable solutions, while also bringing public concerns and interests into the debates.
organisational or disciplinary in nature Deepen dialogue with society and improve governance, thus increasing trust between policy makers, business and the general public and consequently reducing the number of occasions
to social partners and to stakeholders and civil society so that all main stakeholders can be involved in delivering on the vision of Europe 2020.
At the same time FTA can raise awareness and sensitise society towards sustainnabl solutions, while also bringing public concerns and interests into debates Structuring role of FTA can be enabled within EU instruments
In the latter case decision-makers should work together with specialists, potential users and concerrne representatives of civil society.
Bright, D. S.,Fry, R. E. and Cooperrider, D. L. 2006)‘ Transformative innovations for the mutual benefit of business society,
Depledge, M.,Bartonova, A. and Cherp, A. 2010)‘ Responsible and transformative innovation for sustainable societies.
The need to transform current systems is heightened by emerging global trends, in particular democratic crises in many societies worldwide, the growing political and economic power of Brazil, Russia, India and China,
journals. permissions@oup. com the world, lead to reverberations in European society. These developments heighten the uncertainty in the face of likely transformation processes ahead
absorptive and adaptive capabilities and capacities in society to address continuous as well as disruptive change and challennge (Ko nno la et al. 2012a).
which are transforming our society and/or requiring transformation of our society, in highly significant ways.
In this section, a typology of transformations is developed to distinguish between different forms and sources of change in the system.
Social and environmental challenges deal with the causes and consequences of issues such as climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society,
and drive the anticipatory capabilities in society. Ko nno la et al. 2009) derive four modes of governance from argumeent that build on cultural theory (Tukker and Butter Figure 1. Identified types of transformations.
complemennte by the need to enhance networking to access knowleedg in other domains of society.
Early identification of emerging issues and consequuen trends and transitions in society. Interconnecting different areas of research.
Consensus-building and effectiiv engagement of civil society. Programmes and projects. Networking to address open innovation Emerging rationales for FTA.
and uncertainty Systemic view on innovation capabilities of society in which RTOS are pertinent nodes. Emphasis on coordination mode and its interactions with other governance modes Institutionalisation of FTA needs to be combined with network structures to attain:
In general, parliamentarians need better access to knowledge about current and future developments in technology and society.
and society is not an easy task. And even the attempt to have recourse to external advice that is contracted out to research
when the focus extends beyond the challenges that societies face today and seeks to anticipate future challenges
particularly when the policy focus extends beyond the challenges that societies face today, to anticipate future challenges
social or environmental crisis, society is in a position to address them beforehand, either to deal with the likely consequences
Nordmann, A. 2004)‘ Converging technologies Shaping the future of European societies',Report of an Expert Group to the European commission.
Society of New zealand, PO BOX 598, Wellington 6140, New zealand 6present address Institute of Seismology, P o box 68 (Gustaf Ha llstro min katu 2b), FI
michael. keenan@oecd. org Over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society's response to emerging global‘grand challenges'.
This vision translates into a mission that sees ICSU working with strategic partners to plan and coordinate international research programmes that address major issues of relevance to both science and society.
and mission of ICSU and guide long-term strategic choices aimed at strengthening internatioona science for the benefit of society.
'167 the height of the Cold war, it demonstrated that even during tense political times scientists from around the world could work together for the betterment of society.
Whilst several countries such as Brazil, China and India are making rapid progress (Royal Society 2011
from oceans to ecosysteem to the cryosphere and atmosphere, the forecasts are consistent in suggesting broad changes with major impacts on society over the coming two decades..
Enabling information and communication technoloogies this affects almost all aspects of society. These six megatrends were written-up
The second selected axis was based on the‘science and society'driver. At one end of this axis
'171 independently from society (e g. in terms of scientists setting the agenda and the lack of strong engagement of science and scientists in decision-making processes.
At the other end, science is engaged highly with society. These are referred to as‘detached'and‘engaged'science society relationships.
While this approach to scenario building has some drawbacks, e g. a certain rigidity that can sometimes stifle creativity,
Science and society: The relationship between science and society is likely to have a significant impact on the future of international science.
This includes the ways in which science receives its mandate from society and how science feeds back its knowledge to society especially at the policy level.
The shape of these processes will also have implications for science education and how appreciation of and trust in science will evolve.
Private sector/military science: The funding and settings for international science will be influenced by the proportions of science conducted in nonacademic settings where market economy,
and faith-based societies could have implications for the scientific process especially in the international science area.
and addressing controversial areas of science in areas of high public interest will be significant for the relationship between science and society.
and visioning science in society and to reflect on the organisation and activities of the international scientific community.
By 2031 global science (natural sciences, social sciences, engineering and humanities) has played a significant role in helping to build a more sustainable world by working with society to address the major challenges associated with sustainable development.
and civil society now play a key role in addressing complex global issues. These new fora have brought in a wider range of scientific expertise.
to rapidly assess new areas of scientific advance that have implications for the benefit of society.
Maintaining the integrity of science was recognised as being critical to building an effective relationship between science and society, especially around global issues.
and society and the responsibilities that scientists have with regard to this relationship. Outreach and education: ICSU recognised that its effectiveness in addressing societies concerns about complex international science could be answered partly by ensuring effective outreach in the context of each of its programmes.
In this context, ICSU now plays the central role in communicating the results of interdisciplinary global research to international fora.
2006) Strengthening International Science for the Benefit of Society: ICSU Strategic Plan 2006 2011. Paris:
Royal Society. 2011) Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global Scientific Collaboration in the 21st century. London: Royal Society.
Schwartz, P. 1998) The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World.
Teixeira, A.,Martin, B. and von Tunzelmann, N. 2002)‘ Identification of Key Emerging Issues in Science and Society:
T. Ahlqvist et al. of ICT in society or specific applications in a defined sector) and the nature of the process and its participants. 3. 2 Policy rationales of IPRM A key aspect of IPRM is that it links the results
and which now experiences increasing pressure to contribuut to innovation strategies and to engage more with business and the wider society.
or other forces in society, including whether future costs are taken into account in today's policy-making.
public administration and civil society in different levels of research innovation systems set a major managerial challenge how to prepare,
policy support. 1. Introduction The 2000s have witnessed increasing complexities in societies. Although the world has improved for some people,
(such as the above), facing societies are highly complex with uncertain and far-reaching implications. Within this context
and events which may present themselves as threats or opportunities for society and policy. Additionally, in this special issue Ko nno la et al.
or source, should be taken into account by policymakers, society and/or research. Recent examples have been analysed by Boden et al.
society or economy in combination with a need for present-day (policy) decisions to prevent, mitigate or stimulate the foreseen impact.
but have not been taken sufficiently into consideration by policy and society thus far. Additionally the timing of bringing up signals or emerging issues could be a crucial factor for their further consideration in the policy-making arena.
and debating that takes place within different segments of society including scientific communities. These types of debates can also be evoked by the horizon scanning process itself.
Arguably, the growing interest in horizon scanning and further on the apparently greater empirical reliance of horizon scanning over scenario planning reflect the increasing complexity of modern societies which are shaped continuuall by so many uncertainties especially in the social and political spheres.
global governance. natural capital. society. economy. By the end of the workshop, a workable agreement had been reached on the definition of the following three overarcchin challenges:.
if their broader signifiicanc for society and policy-making has not yet been addressed sufficiently. The engagement of stakeholders into collective sensemakkin in horizon scanning may follow different organizattiona models.
Fraunhofer's mission is to conduct innovation-oriented research for the benefit of private and public enterprises as well as society in general.
The Fraunhofer Society is Europe's largest contract research organisation and is taking this request seriously,
as well as society in general. But the first question to ask was: What are the global challenges and questions of the future?
These reports served as a basis for the challenges for the Fraunhofer Society (see below.
The fourth example is from the Fraunhofer Society itself. The Fraunhofer Society (see below) came up with its own list of challenges.
These were derived from what was regarded as peoples'‘needs 'and are therefore in the background of fields in
however, what the Fraunhofer Society attempted to do. But why did the Fraunhofer Society define‘its'global challenges?
How does one of the largest research organisations in Europe reorient itself towards these challenges? For this, we need first of all to look at the Fraunhofer Society itself. 3. The Fraunhofer approach 3. 1 Strategic R&d planning within the Fraunhofer governance model Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES have been used within corporate strategic R&d planning at Fraunhofer for several years.
When assessing the scope and impact of these activities, it is useful to consider the specifics of the‘Fraunhofer innovation system
on the one hand, and the aim to identify important future fields for the Fraunhofer Society on the other hand. Methodologically, the analysis of different foresight activities in different countries was at the forefront.
or update the Fraunhofer Society's thematic portfolio. Papers on foresight studies or specific technological R&d trends were analysed
This approach is common for a technological-driven organisation like the Fraunhofer Society. It fits with an attitude often associated with technicians
it is obvious that its headquarters had to act to position the Fraunhofer Society. For Fraunhofer itself
because within the Fraunhofer Society with its 60 institutes, there is a broad portfolio with a huge variety of scientific disciplines, applications and knowledge in general available.
Each of the State of the Future challenges was discussed in great detail by a team in the Fraunhofer Society
because not all of them could be the basis for research undertaken by the Fraunhofer Society.
impact of the results on the challenge. market potential for Fraunhofer Society At least four different institutes need to be involved in each project.
in which teams from different Fraunhofer knowledge domains worked towards Table 2. Megatrends in society, environment and economy Globalisation/localisation (And lack of control) of trade, capital and terrorism;
population in Asia and Africa Knowledge society Increase in knowledge-intensive services, commodity knowledge, digital divide Changing values Pluralism of lifestyles,
and mental flexibility necessary (lifelong learning), greater importance of women in business and society Increasing mobility and transport Due to increasing global flows of goods and leisure Increasing
2010) World's Top Global Mega Trends to 2020 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures.<
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