because it is a key challenge for contemporary societies, and also because it may induce disruptive transformations in the urban planning value chain.
and the general behaviour of society have not been assessed rigorously. The lack of studies about this issue is primarily due to two major difficulties:
1. Vertical axis. Represented the potential alternative responses by society in the future to the SD concept.
The VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 321‘‘green paradigm''is the manifestation of an environmentally aware society, in
In this scenario, Spanish society gives priority to human and social requirements over purely consumption-oriented needs.
‘‘Predator Development''represents a society that regards environmental issues as noncritical, compared to its economic and consumption requirements.
and tends to relax a society which indulges itself in exuberant consumerism. In this scenario, Spanish society is driven mainly by egocentric values.
At the national level, solidarity amongst regions has deteriorated significantly due to resistance by the wealthiest territories to share their profits with their least developed counterparts.
but at the same time, Spanish society as a whole is inclined to support sustainable development models.‘‘‘‘Back to basics''is marked by the failure of the previous development model,
In this scenario, Spanish society suffers a deep disenchantment with the socioeconomic model that prevailed at the end of the twentieth century.
while urban societies enjoy abundant resources (see Figure 4). In this scenario, public policies regarding urban development are decentralised very much at the regional and local level.
I Main scenarios indicators 2025 Indicators Measurement unit 2010 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Analytical methods and tools used for estimating indicators Society Population growth K
Strong decrease 535 Land-use models Society Population growth. Variation in population over a year, expressed as a percentage of the difference of the number of individuals in the total population at the beginning of that period Urban density.
Nevertheless, prospering in Scenario A will mean a major transformation in the Spanish society, as the following strategic actions illustrate:
so that society can adapt quickly to changes. B Promote an educational system that transmits the values of sustainability, innovation, social commitment and solidarity.
Spanish society is somewhat self-indulgent and very much oriented towards consumption because it feels confident that new technologies will solve most environmental threats.
and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide society. Design/methodology/approach The paper describes a series of real world examples
and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.
In this respect, Saritas (2011) comments that‘‘a s the complexity of societies has increased, the scope of FTA ACTIVITIES has widened to cover a wide variety of issues.
r evealing the hidden laws and processes underlying societies''(www. futurict. eu). The objective is
or knowledge databases such as Wikipedia) to construct a model of society capable of simulating what the future holds for us.
not only contribute to the process of evaluating the impact of specific laws in society, it would also render legislators
In this respect, legislators should have at their disposal the largest quantity and quality of information available about the society,
and anticipate (if not construct) the various possible future developments that will guide society. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 347 In this way,
According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society, overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. de Smedt, P. 2010),‘The use of impact assessment tools to support sustainable policy objectives in Europe'',Ecology and Society, Vol. 15 No. 4
information on future developments of technology and its interaction with society before they are implemented widely, i e. at early stages of their development when the direction of the innovation process already can be influenced.
and the structural changes in technology, economy and society possibly initiated by them will have considerable consequences.
Bridges Between Science, Society and Policy. Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al./
which has in fact structural implications for the resilience of societies. In order to navigate foresight in the sea of expectations, one needs both clear sight as well as a compass.
firms should also take a share of the responsibility for educating society and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making through inclusive dialogue.
as well as for characterising the limitations of evidence-based policy-making in innovation-intensive societies and economies.
In other words, assuming that the industrial society remains as it used to be, extrapolations from demographic data lead to an unsustainable state.
if we also assume that these societies are transforming towards knowledge societies where innovation is an important economic factor.
The constitution of society: Outline of the theory of structure. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Electrification in western society 1880 1930. Baltimore, MD: The John Hopkins University Press. Jacobs, S. 2000.
Tradition & Discovery, The Polanyi Society Periodical XXV, no. 1: 29 42. Mirowski, P. 2009.
Actionable future visions Timely mitigation of negative impacts or adaptation to new situations and exploitation of positive outcomes Guidance and support for the policy process identifying impacts on society and implications for policy,
and sectors of society probabilistically to express their relevant uncertainties How to deepen dialogue with society How to improve governance Because of the dominant role of subjective opinion,
but do they remain so in the face of the political and social worlds'demands for immediacy that underlie the mode of living of modern society?
but whether society fits into the concept of‘computers and you'or‘computers or you'is a matter of social concern that is unlikely to be resolved by the turn of the century,
as well as new networks among stakeholders Embedding participation in policymakkin Facilitating the participation of civil society in the policymakkin process,
The orientation towards the future applies to the behaviour of individuals, groups, organisations and society as a whole (Konrad 2006.
Shaping technology in 21st century society. Towards a repertoire for technology assessment. Heidelberg: Springer verlag. Groenveld, P. 1997. Roadmapping integrates business and Technology research Technology management 40, no. 5: 48 55.
and changes in society, consumers'behaviour, and mobility (i e. cultural conditioons lifestyles, urban life trends, etc..
economics, society, and politics. A relevant example has been the development of the‘Smart'car concept.
In such a context, strategic foresight efforts at Philips aimed essentially at detecting new trends in society, technologies,
Within Philips Design, the‘Trends and Strategy'team has been devoted to the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 790 R. Vecchiato investigation of three axes‘Society'‘
which summarises the evolution of changes in society, lifestyle, and customer needs in terms of both markets and technologies.
to shareholders and to stakeholders within society, value has to be redefined. To do so, the research outlined in this paper builds upon a critical view of value creation and competitive advantage in both supply chain management and corporate social responsibility (CSR.
including nature and different stakeholders within society in one interconnected system. Such a network has to operate as a cyclical system where value is redefined from Porter's strategies, on cost leadership and differentiation,
FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
Social change implies that people within a society must change: this happens either through encounters outside the specific social system or via reflections through language (Maturana and Varela 1997.
civil society and governments the truth is that all three sectors have to advance more or less at the same speed and in the same direction.
In this context, the kind of dialogue required across a business network demands the inclusiiv participation of governments and overall societies,
However, both governments and firms should take part of the responsibility for educating society and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making, through inclusive dialogue,
New Society. Elrod, P. D.,II, and D d. Tippett. 1999. An empirical study of the relationship between team performance and team maturity.
From the single individual, passing through the organisation and its relationships, seeking to consider the overall society.
Her special interest lies in enhancing innovations provoked by societal concerns for the well-being of the ageing society and for cleaner environment.
Her current research interests are especially in sustainable energy solutions at the society. She has also been carrying on various roadmap processes.
and the anticipated (disruptive) impacts on markets and on society are difficult (although not impossible) to foresee.
Journal of the American Society for Information science and Technology 60, no. 2: 348 62. Liu, B.,N. Tang,
SRA Journal (Society of Research Administrators) 26, no. 2: 21 31. Porter, A l.,A. Kongthon,
Journal of the American Society for Information science & Technology 61, no. 9: 1871 87. Rantanen, K,
and common factors to be promoted toward the desired society. The result shows that green-related and life-related areas are two major areas where future innovation is expected.
including the creation of values in society, social or economic conditions for their promotion, and reform of stakeholders'way of thinking.
it aims to provide an overview of future impacts on our society in broader contexts. Foresight activities in Japan have changed also their objectives.
Their main role was to identify key or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science and technology and the expected changes in society.
Currently activities aim to discuss innovations that have the potential to change society for the better.
and adequately embedded in society to achieve social goals and tackle social issues. Foresight is expected to facilitate a framework for integrated knowledge. 2. The 9th Science
Considering the relation between science and technology and society along the lines of science in and for society, it is necessary to have a broad view from both the technological and social aspects.
and technology that would play an important role in drawing up a picture of future society.
science and technology to be embedded in society as a socialized system. With the discussion above and the dramatic changes occurring inside and outside Japan as a backdrop,
3. successful model for healthy-aging society; and 4. secure life. 2. 2 Delphi Delphi is characterized by repeated questions for the collective convergence of opinions,
and reframed as a form of scenes. 2. 3. 3 Future society as discussed by the younger generation.
Delphi deals with a variety of areas of science, technology and society, and therefore it contains events that are expected to make an implicit contribution
1.‘‘Realization of a low-carbon society through the active use of the Smart-grid'';
''2.‘‘World's highest level medical environment underlying a healthy society with longevity'';''3.‘‘Health information infrastructure for eliminating disparities'';
and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first group of expected innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society
The area addresses the issue of constructing a new information society system where ICT underpins the basic infrastructure of society,
bdelphi areas with strong focus PAGE 14 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 all the people living in the society benefit from it.
and technology is indispensable for discussing the desired future. 6. Conclusion To bring about innovation in society through the effective use of the fruits of science
The 9th Foresight exercise was conducted under the concept of contributing to the future society. The points of the exercise were diversified interdisciplinary
European commission (2004), Converging technologies Shaping the Future of European Societies, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2009), Mapping Foresight:
converging technology society'',National science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Popper, R. 2008),‘How are selected foresight methods?''''Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 6, pp. 62-89.
The success of research policy is dependent on the alignment of a broad range of relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, politics, and society.
and B corporate dialogues initiated by businesses to communicate in the context of supplier networks and with society as a whole.
and similar strategy processes and involve stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and society. The overall aim lies in making foresight results as usable and useful as possible in the work of research policy makers and in turning the transfer into an integral part of policy development.
and society in addition to politics, combining their perspectives at an early stage to explore promising pathways for politic decision making.
Society can be involved, for example in the form of pressure groups, think tanks, trade unions, religious organizations, and charities.
politics and society and to develop recommendations for further supporting activities. The size of such workshops ranges from 30 to 80 participants. 4. 7 Step 7:
industry and society in identifying practical steps towards addressing the situation (step 5). This wider involvement is currently in progress in phase 3 of the Strategic dialogue
ISSN 1463-6689 jforesight j PAGE 29 Martin Rhisiart is based in the Faculty of business and Society, University of Glamorgan, Pontypridd, UK.
ageing societies, public health, pandemics and security. It must tackle the overarching challenge of turning Europe into an eco-efficient economy''.
Gain a broader understanding of creativity and innovation and their role in the application of research within enterprises and more broadly across society Establish better ways of judging
and social science and their contribution to Ireland's society and economy Be more‘‘creative''by moving towards a stronger creative economy that combines arts/humanities
the research community amongst others has been challenged to rethink the way in which it serves the broader needs of society.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
when analysing the potential of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to assist societies, decision-makers and businesses to tackle fundamental, disruptive transformations, in general,
though increasingly less so as economies and societies become more globalised. In this context, FTA can contribute not only to the steering of innovation systems,
and capabilities to shift organisations and ultimately societies towards new directions. Appropriate FTA practices are essential to enable FTA to fulfil such roles.
or large parts of societies and require multidisciplinary and collective action. At the same time, they do not fit into current institutional and governance structures.
businesses and society by addressing the so-called grand challenges. They introduce a three-level taxonomy independent use of QL and QT approaches for their combination at a later stage
or issues at the interplay between science and society, to keep track of the content of one's intellectual portfolio of knowledge
the value of models is not so much in their ability to tell us with a degree of certainty what will happen to society,
which can only be reached through strong interactions within the FTA COMMUNITY and between it and the relevant stakeholders from education, policy and society at large.
building policy options into a scenario for development in a global knowledge society, Futures 37 (2005) 813 831.74 R. Johnston, Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight, Foresight 14 (1
or delayed impacts on society of introducing new technologies i e.,, technology assessment but that is beyond the scope of this study.
Acknowledgement This research was undertaken at Georgia Tech, drawing on support from the National science Foundation (NSF) through the Center for Nanotechnology in Society (Arizona State university;
Proceedings of ISSI 2009-The 12th International Conference of the International Society for Scientometrics and Informetrics, Rio de janeiro, Brazil, 2009, pp. 154 164.17 C. Zhang, D. H
Viewed on the most general level, living systems, from cells to societies exhibit common properties, with some attending intrinsic fundamental invariants.
and human societies alike has been shaped by the bpayoffsq arising from various forms of synergy. Cooperation, bpayoffs, Q networks, agents,
Viewed on the most general level, living systems, from cells to societies, exhibit common properties, with some attending intrinsic fundamental invariants.
All of the extraordinary organizational forms and behavioral strategies that we witness in nature or society have arisen through the process of inheritance with diversification and selection.
for we must consider the many cultural pathologies observed in human society. It serves almost exclusively to the human (genetically inherited) quick capacity of response to rapidly changing environments
Change 3 (1971) 75 88.10 C. Marchetti, Society as a learning system: discovery, invention and innovation cycles revisited, Technol.
Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future, Simon and Scuster, New york, 1992.12 T. Devezas, J. Corredine, The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic
The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, System Dynamics Society, Seoul, South korea, 2010.416 C. Hamarat et al./
The 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, WASHINGTON DC, USA, 2011.4 W. Walker, P. Harremoës, J. Rotmans, J. Van der Sluijs, M. Van
The 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St gallen, Switzerland, 2012.38 S. Bankes, Exploratory modeling for policy analysis, Oper.
The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all societies.
and load curves. 3. 1. Mineral scarcity The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all developed and developing societies.
quasi-monopoly on the extraction of (rare earth) metals may seriously hinder the transition of modern societies towards more sustainable ones.
Chang. 71 (2004) 287 303.2 D. Jamieson, Prediction in society, in: D. Sarewitz, R. j. Pielke, R. Byerly (Eds.
T. H. Moon (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 19 E. Alonso, J. Gregory, F. Field
M. H. Lee (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of The System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 27 Ventana Systems Inc, in:
Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change
or scenario specialists 3. Developing and using scenarios can contribute at various levels of society by generating appropriate inputs for planning
-contribute to society's strategic intelligence by stimulating future-oriented thinking and by widening the perspectives and knowledge base of researchers, policy-makers and business decision-makers.
Societies differ, just as economies, and governments deal with international scientific developments in different ways through the policies they pursue 14.
Thus through trial-and-error and learning-by-doing 1 The Cost Action A22 network was a four year program (2004 2007) entitled Foresight methodologies Exploring new ways to explore the future and funded by the Individuals, Societies, Culture
Trying to find the most likely development The eventualities mode Possible futures Openness to several different developments The visionary mode Preferable futures Envisioning how society can be designed in a better way 435 P
This links well with the concept of risk-society 69 and risk management. Our analysis suggests that this can be contributed partly to the selected process design for developing the scenarios.
and external change Visionary Preference Envision how society can be designed in a better (e g. more sustainable) way Allows creating authentic alternative visions to guide innovation Weak on clear targets,
foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (1999) 413 421.12 H. Linstone, On discounting the future, Technol.
June 7th 2007.78 A. Stirling, A general framework for analysing diversity in science, technology and society, J. R. Soc.
Those societies that 3 Today most scientists do not give credit to Drexler's contribution to nanotechnology
represented a future-oriented relation of technology policy and society which can be characterized as a model of linear and science-driven innovation.
In this model, technology results from research whereas society has to adapt to technology to make its applications successful.
Legal and Social Implications (ELSI) into nanotechnology R&d programs and supported centers for nanotechnology in society.
that was introduced by social scientists at the Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State university. The concept aims at having participatory FTA be taken up into ongoing sociotechnical processes to shape their eventual outcomes at all levels including to the point of the lab 43.
Such translation will benefit society but will require new approaches in accountable, anticipatory, and participatory governance, and real-time technology assessment 3. The report refers to the previous involvement of a broad variety of stakeholders
The funding is provided through the NNI member agencies. 6 The Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State (CNS-ASU) is funded by the NSF. 447 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting
Its mandate was solely to foster exchange among the various stakeholder groups in society on the potential benefits
When investigating new patterns of innovation INFU was focussing on fundamental transformation in the way innovation is organised in business, public sector and society 16.
What starts with Web 2. 0. features on the internet could lead to a society where customers become completely transparent.
and companies involved with city level innovation in Paris 5. Innocamp Society Dominik Wind Until we see new land (Innovation camp Start-up),
In subsequent phases of the INFU project, the findings were assessed by actors from various stakeholder groups with respect to impacts for society, economy and ecosystems 29.
Her research focuses on Foresight methodology and the mutual shaping of technology and society. 466 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
understand and if possible guide society through what lies ahead, the FTA COMMUNITY eponymously and in practice, takes as its anchor point the role of technology and by implication the conduct and consequences of research and innovation.
most noticeably but by no means exclusively at European level where societal challenges such as health, energy and food security, transport, climate and resources and innovative and secure societies became first a part of the ERA debate 10 and subsequently a central
Symptomatic of this danger, many voices across all of the FTA conferences call for clarification regarding the impact or utility of FTA in terms of policy making and more general outcomes for society.
which he believes all societies must address. In his original study from the 1970s, Hofstede analysed cultural differences based on attitude questions that were asked of IBM employees in 40 countries.
The power distance dimension has implications for societies'need for subordinate consultation and thus for participatory elements of foresight exercises.
According to Hofstede, societies with significant power distance,‘rulers'are less likely to consult with citizens.
Societies with lower power distance might be more likely favour interaction (citizen consultation) based foresight methodologies
In high power distance societies, we could expect expertise and evidence based foresight methodologies, such as Expert Panels, Interviews, Modelling and Literature reviews.
The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
but implementing the results into real policies might be difficult in a society with more uncertainty avoidance.
A more careful investigation might reveal that societies with lower levels of uncertainty avoidance might be less willing to launch significant foresight exercises
According to Hofstede, the uncertainty avoidance dimension impacts the question of‘‘how a society reacts on the fact that time only runs one way
which is a fundamental issue for any society and for which a range of solutions are found Individualism The degree to
In societies that have more uncertainty avoidance, foresight processes might be seen to create a political battlefield where stakeholders with conflicting viewpoints seek to win the battle,
whereas stakeholders in societies that display less uncertainty avoidance are more likely to seek consensus. However,
It is well known that the anonymity of Delphi surveys allows respondents in uncertainty avoiding societies such as Japan, to express view points and disagreement without involving personal sym-or antipathies.
'''27 Furthermore, the Democracy and Power study concluded that the power gap in Danish society has disappeared almost.
The Power and Democracy project's conclusion also supports Hofstede's categorisation of Denmark as a low uncertainty avoidance society.
economy and society with the aim of identifying technologies which may have economical and/or societal significance''29.
and a strategy for transforming Denmark into a leading growth, knowledge and entrepreneurial society. The work was set up in the wake of the government programme‘‘New Goals,
public authorities and non-governmental organisations that were designated not only on the basis of their personal competences but also their links to major stakeholder groups in Danish society.
Considering Danish society's low uncertainty avoidance, the initiation and implementation of a long-term planning project such as the Globalisation Strategy might be contradictory.
and might be difficult to implement in a society with more uncertainty avoidance. The two processes did include expertise-and evidence-oriented elements (such as the OECD horizontal scan in the Research2015 process or the fact sheets in the Globalisation Council process),
food and bio products Intelligent solutions for society Production systems of the future Strategic growth technologies Health and prevention From basic research to individualised treatment Chronic disease between prevention and rehabilitation
Evidence in practice Knowledge production and dissemination of knowledge in society People and societal design Sustainable transport and infrastructure Better life-space space for life and growth Cultural understanding in a globalised world Changing
This orientation reflects a low power distance society's need for subordinate consultation. As concluded by the study‘Power and Democracy',rather than analytical presentations,
food and other bio products 45 50 Intelligent solutions for society 0 10 Health and prevention From basic research to individualised treatment 30 20 Human health and safety
since it is able to steer society, and thereby its future, to a considerable extent.
and non-government) organisations and how to reposition the organisation in a fast changing society.
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