The success of research policy is dependent on the alignment of a broad range of relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, politics, and society.
and B corporate dialogues initiated by businesses to communicate in the context of supplier networks and with society as a whole.
and similar strategy processes and involve stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and society. The overall aim lies in making foresight results as usable and useful as possible in the work of research policy makers and in turning the transfer into an integral part of policy development.
and society in addition to politics, combining their perspectives at an early stage to explore promising pathways for politic decision making.
Society can be involved, for example in the form of pressure groups, think tanks, trade unions, religious organizations, and charities.
politics and society and to develop recommendations for further supporting activities. The size of such workshops ranges from 30 to 80 participants. 4. 7 Step 7:
industry and society in identifying practical steps towards addressing the situation (step 5). This wider involvement is currently in progress in phase 3 of the Strategic dialogue
ISSN 1463-6689 jforesight j PAGE 29 Martin Rhisiart is based in the Faculty of business and Society, University of Glamorgan, Pontypridd, UK.
ageing societies, public health, pandemics and security. It must tackle the overarching challenge of turning Europe into an eco-efficient economy''.
Gain a broader understanding of creativity and innovation and their role in the application of research within enterprises and more broadly across society Establish better ways of judging
and social science and their contribution to Ireland's society and economy Be more‘‘creative''by moving towards a stronger creative economy that combines arts/humanities
the research community amongst others has been challenged to rethink the way in which it serves the broader needs of society.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
when analysing the potential of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to assist societies, decision-makers and businesses to tackle fundamental, disruptive transformations, in general,
though increasingly less so as economies and societies become more globalised. In this context, FTA can contribute not only to the steering of innovation systems,
and capabilities to shift organisations and ultimately societies towards new directions. Appropriate FTA practices are essential to enable FTA to fulfil such roles.
or large parts of societies and require multidisciplinary and collective action. At the same time, they do not fit into current institutional and governance structures.
businesses and society by addressing the so-called grand challenges. They introduce a three-level taxonomy independent use of QL and QT approaches for their combination at a later stage
or issues at the interplay between science and society, to keep track of the content of one's intellectual portfolio of knowledge
the value of models is not so much in their ability to tell us with a degree of certainty what will happen to society,
which can only be reached through strong interactions within the FTA COMMUNITY and between it and the relevant stakeholders from education, policy and society at large.
or delayed impacts on society of introducing new technologies i e.,, technology assessment but that is beyond the scope of this study.
Acknowledgement This research was undertaken at Georgia Tech, drawing on support from the National science Foundation (NSF) through the Center for Nanotechnology in Society (Arizona State university;
Proceedings of ISSI 2009-The 12th International Conference of the International Society for Scientometrics and Informetrics, Rio de janeiro, Brazil, 2009, pp. 154 164.17 C. Zhang, D. H
Viewed on the most general level, living systems, from cells to societies exhibit common properties, with some attending intrinsic fundamental invariants.
and human societies alike has been shaped by the bpayoffsq arising from various forms of synergy. Cooperation, bpayoffs, Q networks, agents,
Viewed on the most general level, living systems, from cells to societies, exhibit common properties, with some attending intrinsic fundamental invariants.
All of the extraordinary organizational forms and behavioral strategies that we witness in nature or society have arisen through the process of inheritance with diversification and selection.
for we must consider the many cultural pathologies observed in human society. It serves almost exclusively to the human (genetically inherited) quick capacity of response to rapidly changing environments
Change 3 (1971) 75 88.10 C. Marchetti, Society as a learning system: discovery, invention and innovation cycles revisited, Technol.
Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future, Simon and Scuster, New york, 1992.12 T. Devezas, J. Corredine, The biological determinants of long-wave behavior in socioeconomic
The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, System Dynamics Society, Seoul, South korea, 2010.416 C. Hamarat et al./
The 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, WASHINGTON DC, USA, 2011.4 W. Walker, P. Harremoës, J. Rotmans, J. Van der Sluijs, M. Van
The 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St gallen, Switzerland, 2012.38 S. Bankes, Exploratory modeling for policy analysis, Oper.
The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all societies.
and load curves. 3. 1. Mineral scarcity The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all developed and developing societies.
quasi-monopoly on the extraction of (rare earth) metals may seriously hinder the transition of modern societies towards more sustainable ones.
Chang. 71 (2004) 287 303.2 D. Jamieson, Prediction in society, in: D. Sarewitz, R. j. Pielke, R. Byerly (Eds.
T. H. Moon (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 19 E. Alonso, J. Gregory, F. Field
M. H. Lee (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of The System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 27 Ventana Systems Inc, in:
Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change
or scenario specialists 3. Developing and using scenarios can contribute at various levels of society by generating appropriate inputs for planning
-contribute to society's strategic intelligence by stimulating future-oriented thinking and by widening the perspectives and knowledge base of researchers, policy-makers and business decision-makers.
Societies differ, just as economies, and governments deal with international scientific developments in different ways through the policies they pursue 14.
Thus through trial-and-error and learning-by-doing 1 The Cost Action A22 network was a four year program (2004 2007) entitled Foresight methodologies Exploring new ways to explore the future and funded by the Individuals, Societies, Culture
Trying to find the most likely development The eventualities mode Possible futures Openness to several different developments The visionary mode Preferable futures Envisioning how society can be designed in a better way 435 P
This links well with the concept of risk-society 69 and risk management. Our analysis suggests that this can be contributed partly to the selected process design for developing the scenarios.
and external change Visionary Preference Envision how society can be designed in a better (e g. more sustainable) way Allows creating authentic alternative visions to guide innovation Weak on clear targets,
foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (1999) 413 421.12 H. Linstone, On discounting the future, Technol.
June 7th 2007.78 A. Stirling, A general framework for analysing diversity in science, technology and society, J. R. Soc.
Those societies that 3 Today most scientists do not give credit to Drexler's contribution to nanotechnology
represented a future-oriented relation of technology policy and society which can be characterized as a model of linear and science-driven innovation.
In this model, technology results from research whereas society has to adapt to technology to make its applications successful.
Legal and Social Implications (ELSI) into nanotechnology R&d programs and supported centers for nanotechnology in society.
that was introduced by social scientists at the Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State university. The concept aims at having participatory FTA be taken up into ongoing sociotechnical processes to shape their eventual outcomes at all levels including to the point of the lab 43.
Such translation will benefit society but will require new approaches in accountable, anticipatory, and participatory governance, and real-time technology assessment 3. The report refers to the previous involvement of a broad variety of stakeholders
The funding is provided through the NNI member agencies. 6 The Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State (CNS-ASU) is funded by the NSF. 447 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting
Its mandate was solely to foster exchange among the various stakeholder groups in society on the potential benefits
When investigating new patterns of innovation INFU was focussing on fundamental transformation in the way innovation is organised in business, public sector and society 16.
What starts with Web 2. 0. features on the internet could lead to a society where customers become completely transparent.
and companies involved with city level innovation in Paris 5. Innocamp Society Dominik Wind Until we see new land (Innovation camp Start-up),
In subsequent phases of the INFU project, the findings were assessed by actors from various stakeholder groups with respect to impacts for society, economy and ecosystems 29.
Her research focuses on Foresight methodology and the mutual shaping of technology and society. 466 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
understand and if possible guide society through what lies ahead, the FTA COMMUNITY eponymously and in practice, takes as its anchor point the role of technology and by implication the conduct and consequences of research and innovation.
most noticeably but by no means exclusively at European level where societal challenges such as health, energy and food security, transport, climate and resources and innovative and secure societies became first a part of the ERA debate 10 and subsequently a central
Symptomatic of this danger, many voices across all of the FTA conferences call for clarification regarding the impact or utility of FTA in terms of policy making and more general outcomes for society.
which he believes all societies must address. In his original study from the 1970s, Hofstede analysed cultural differences based on attitude questions that were asked of IBM employees in 40 countries.
The power distance dimension has implications for societies'need for subordinate consultation and thus for participatory elements of foresight exercises.
According to Hofstede, societies with significant power distance,‘rulers'are less likely to consult with citizens.
Societies with lower power distance might be more likely favour interaction (citizen consultation) based foresight methodologies
In high power distance societies, we could expect expertise and evidence based foresight methodologies, such as Expert Panels, Interviews, Modelling and Literature reviews.
The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
but implementing the results into real policies might be difficult in a society with more uncertainty avoidance.
A more careful investigation might reveal that societies with lower levels of uncertainty avoidance might be less willing to launch significant foresight exercises
According to Hofstede, the uncertainty avoidance dimension impacts the question of‘‘how a society reacts on the fact that time only runs one way
which is a fundamental issue for any society and for which a range of solutions are found Individualism The degree to
In societies that have more uncertainty avoidance, foresight processes might be seen to create a political battlefield where stakeholders with conflicting viewpoints seek to win the battle,
whereas stakeholders in societies that display less uncertainty avoidance are more likely to seek consensus. However,
It is well known that the anonymity of Delphi surveys allows respondents in uncertainty avoiding societies such as Japan, to express view points and disagreement without involving personal sym-or antipathies.
'''27 Furthermore, the Democracy and Power study concluded that the power gap in Danish society has disappeared almost.
The Power and Democracy project's conclusion also supports Hofstede's categorisation of Denmark as a low uncertainty avoidance society.
economy and society with the aim of identifying technologies which may have economical and/or societal significance''29.
and a strategy for transforming Denmark into a leading growth, knowledge and entrepreneurial society. The work was set up in the wake of the government programme‘‘New Goals,
public authorities and non-governmental organisations that were designated not only on the basis of their personal competences but also their links to major stakeholder groups in Danish society.
Considering Danish society's low uncertainty avoidance, the initiation and implementation of a long-term planning project such as the Globalisation Strategy might be contradictory.
and might be difficult to implement in a society with more uncertainty avoidance. The two processes did include expertise-and evidence-oriented elements (such as the OECD horizontal scan in the Research2015 process or the fact sheets in the Globalisation Council process),
food and bio products Intelligent solutions for society Production systems of the future Strategic growth technologies Health and prevention From basic research to individualised treatment Chronic disease between prevention and rehabilitation
Evidence in practice Knowledge production and dissemination of knowledge in society People and societal design Sustainable transport and infrastructure Better life-space space for life and growth Cultural understanding in a globalised world Changing
This orientation reflects a low power distance society's need for subordinate consultation. As concluded by the study‘Power and Democracy',rather than analytical presentations,
food and other bio products 45 50 Intelligent solutions for society 0 10 Health and prevention From basic research to individualised treatment 30 20 Human health and safety
since it is able to steer society, and thereby its future, to a considerable extent.
and non-government) organisations and how to reposition the organisation in a fast changing society.
industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
and finally the recognition of the close relationship between Science, Technology and Society due to the limits to the‘plasticity'of the society,
Proceedings of the 2010 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, IEEE Computer Society, 2010.23 E. Von Hippel, Lead users:
Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Italy, 2002.64 K. Linard, C. Fleming, L. Dvorsky, System dynamics as the link between corporate vision
Proceeding 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New york, 2003.66 A. Butler, S. R. Letza, B. Neale, Linking the balanced scorecard to strategy, Long Range
a research and consultancy institute in the area of delta technology. 4 WINN was supposed to‘‘engage on a joint search with the country's society, business community and scientific sector for durable and innovative combinations of the use and space and society''.
Society and Policy. Technology assessment: Methods and Impacts. Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg, New york. Eerola, A and I Miles 2008.
society (including demographical issues) without public services; S&t (including S&t policy; economy and finance (including its governance;
A Table 2. Subcategories Society S&t Economy and finance Environment (ecological) Politics, government, public services Social values S&t reflection Market Hydrosphere Legitimacy-democracy
Medicine Table 1 Main categories used in the different scans Categories Netherlands UK Denmark Social context Society (including public services) Culture Work life People R&d
emerging challenges for society, but also for promising opportunities, some of which may originate in new or Emerging s&t findings and insights.
there is a large effort to spread good practiic to other parts of government and society. In The netherlands the aim is to contribute to the future orientaatio of policies towards sustainability,
but also in different other societal value dimensions (health, longevity, human rights, social cohesion, law-based democratic society, international relations etc.).
as well as the scientific communnit and society. In The netherlands the approach used can be descrribe as the cluster approach (see Figure 2). This started with the assembling of clusters of issues with potentially impact-rich interactions.
of 366 proposals from the general Sigma Scan development Activity Engagements Output Scan the scans Categorise data Create the E-database Society
Issue (or PTO) selection is therefore based on likelihood and estimated impact on the future of our society.
consultation and debate) that will lead to implementable policies (policies that achieve governmment'goals while meeting society's expectatioons) In this way,
In The netherlands scan, explicit attention was given to the sustainability of society in the light of different sets of shared societal values for
The final proposal Dialogue with involved parties from research and society Final research themes RESEARCH2015 catalogue Figure 3. Design of the Danish OECD DAST horizon scan Source:
developmental policy and technology) and to establish the interface between policy, research and society. An important tool of these sector counciil was participative foresight that developed over time
and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting. COS had the task of facilitating cross-departmental foresight
and Innovation that aims to promoot research and innovation of a high international standard for the benefit of Danish society, facilitating development in economic,
2006), also due to more general problems around the interaction of scientific advice, government and society (De Wit, 2005) it is clear that horizon scanning is seen as a valued but also vulnerable learning process (DEFRA,
Danish society in the future. In addition to this we may assume that the process which contained many experts
scans Society 18.5 22.4 7. 5 15.6 S&t 16.4 8. 8 15.1 13.7 Economy/finance 21.2 21 6 18.9 20.5 Environment
the comparison shows that the Dutch scan somehow seems to fall short on issues from the society domain Joint horizon scanning Science
Finnsight 2015, the outlooo for science technology and society. Summary available from<http://www. aka. fi/Tiedostot/Tiedostot/Julkaisut/Finnsight 2015 en. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Methodology of Boundary work at the interface of science policy and society, basis for a manual, RMNO, ISBN 90.72377.62.1.
Identification of Key emerging Issues in Science and Society: an International Perspecctiv on National foresight Studies.
which will become key to competiitiv advantage in a knowledge-based society, causing disruptions in selected markets
resulting in a set of 36 uncertain issues and open questions in six thematic blocks (see Table 1). Experts were asked to assess the importance of each thesis in different dimensions (economic, scientific, society,
Open innovation society: a situation where all Figure 4. Positioning of the four scenarios Competitive business environment Oligopolistic business environment Negative public attitude towards creative content, lack of demand Positive public
attitude towards creative content, demand Incumbents take it all Incumbents take it All the open innovation society Society meets industry IT is not cool,
Society meets industry: intermediate scenario between the previous two assuming that the creatiiv content sector is transformed rather than revolutionised.
need-driven) Understanding the interaction between technology and the society. e g. what is enhanced? made obsolescent?
Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society.
IT and cognitive sciences (NBIC) and that these converging technologies could radically change society, econoom and culture in the next 20 years.
Shaping the Future of European Societies. Report by High-level Expert Group on‘Foresighting the New technology Wave'.
and society and the notion of user-driven innovattion We then explore the implications for traditional innovation and development processes.
Theoretical perspectives Interplay between technological and societal forces The relationship between technology and society has already been studied from various perspectives.
It largely ascribes changes in society to technological advances, which are assumed thus to have important social consequences (Haddon et al.,
which is dedicated to the adoption and diffusion of new technologies in society. Technollog adoption is assumed to follow a predictable path
Drawing on a number of theoretical frameworks that have studied the relationship between technology and users/society in greater depth,
Cutler, Marks, Meylan, Smith and Koivisto take the view that science will play a key role in society's response to emergent global grand challenges such as resource scarcity and global environmental change.
the transition to a sustainabbl society, health and lifestyles, agri-food or the development of new defence tools.
and Vilkkumaa discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning in order to shape systemic policies to address major challennges Due to the increasing complexity of modern societies,
Individual participation in subjects affecting society as a whole is therefore ever more intense. Thus, not only discussions about the need for social engageemen in the decision-making process emerge,
in a knowledge-based society, democratic governance must ensure that citizens are able to make an informed choice from the options made available to them by responsible scientific and technological progress.
The present authors hope to expand this experiienc to other cultures, societies and realities. These three types differ in the following aspects:.
World Future Society. Godet, M. 2001) Creating Futures Scenario planning as a Strategic management Tool. Washington: Economica.
*and Sylvia Schwaag Serger1 1lund University research Policy Institute, P o box 117, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden, 2institute of Science, Technology and Society, School of Humanities
In most‘mature'research systems in Western societies, several models for priority-setting exist side by side: floor funding to universities,
and academmic as‘respectable'members of society after they had been reviled and attacked during the Cultural Revolution and laying the foundation for a politically favorable environmmen for S&t.
The Chinese government's programmatic and overarching emphasis on a‘harmonious society'and, more recently,
but also a society balancing economic growth with social stabillit and ecological balance. With every wave we find a broader and more encompassing portfolio of priorities,
for instance‘harmonious society'and‘indigennou innovation',indicating the contributions and frameworks of STI governance with broader policy process.
A comparison with India and the United states',Technology in Society, 30: 319 29. OECD. 2003)‘ Priority setting:
technology and innovation (STI) systems might be reoriented to better address several grand challenges that affect not only contemporary societies but also the future of human civilisation itself.
governments and societies to align and Orienting European innovation systems. 143 evolve into this new direction, identifying alternative solutiion and moving away from the current state of affairs.
for example, requires not only surpassing long-established vested interests in certain resources but also a change in the behaviour, norms and values of societies.
It is an emergent trend encouraging activities that generate mutual benefit to business and society or the natural environment (Bright et al. 2006.
More broadly, FTA can raise awareness and sensitise society towards sustainable solutions, while also bringing public concerns and interests into the debates.
organisational or disciplinary in nature Deepen dialogue with society and improve governance, thus increasing trust between policy makers, business and the general public and consequently reducing the number of occasions
At the same time FTA can raise awareness and sensitise society towards sustainnabl solutions, while also bringing public concerns and interests into debates Structuring role of FTA can be enabled within EU instruments
Bright, D. S.,Fry, R. E. and Cooperrider, D. L. 2006)‘ Transformative innovations for the mutual benefit of business society,
Depledge, M.,Bartonova, A. and Cherp, A. 2010)‘ Responsible and transformative innovation for sustainable societies.
The need to transform current systems is heightened by emerging global trends, in particular democratic crises in many societies worldwide, the growing political and economic power of Brazil, Russia, India and China,
journals. permissions@oup. com the world, lead to reverberations in European society. These developments heighten the uncertainty in the face of likely transformation processes ahead
absorptive and adaptive capabilities and capacities in society to address continuous as well as disruptive change and challennge (Ko nno la et al. 2012a).
which are transforming our society and/or requiring transformation of our society, in highly significant ways.
In this section, a typology of transformations is developed to distinguish between different forms and sources of change in the system.
Social and environmental challenges deal with the causes and consequences of issues such as climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society,
and drive the anticipatory capabilities in society. Ko nno la et al. 2009) derive four modes of governance from argumeent that build on cultural theory (Tukker and Butter Figure 1. Identified types of transformations.
complemennte by the need to enhance networking to access knowleedg in other domains of society.
Early identification of emerging issues and consequuen trends and transitions in society. Interconnecting different areas of research.
and uncertainty Systemic view on innovation capabilities of society in which RTOS are pertinent nodes. Emphasis on coordination mode and its interactions with other governance modes Institutionalisation of FTA needs to be combined with network structures to attain:
In general, parliamentarians need better access to knowledge about current and future developments in technology and society.
and society is not an easy task. And even the attempt to have recourse to external advice that is contracted out to research
when the focus extends beyond the challenges that societies face today and seeks to anticipate future challenges
particularly when the policy focus extends beyond the challenges that societies face today, to anticipate future challenges
social or environmental crisis, society is in a position to address them beforehand, either to deal with the likely consequences
Nordmann, A. 2004)‘ Converging technologies Shaping the future of European societies',Report of an Expert Group to the European commission.
Society of New zealand, PO BOX 598, Wellington 6140, New zealand 6present address Institute of Seismology, P o box 68 (Gustaf Ha llstro min katu 2b), FI
michael. keenan@oecd. org Over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society's response to emerging global‘grand challenges'.
This vision translates into a mission that sees ICSU working with strategic partners to plan and coordinate international research programmes that address major issues of relevance to both science and society.
and mission of ICSU and guide long-term strategic choices aimed at strengthening internatioona science for the benefit of society.
'167 the height of the Cold war, it demonstrated that even during tense political times scientists from around the world could work together for the betterment of society.
Whilst several countries such as Brazil, China and India are making rapid progress (Royal Society 2011
from oceans to ecosysteem to the cryosphere and atmosphere, the forecasts are consistent in suggesting broad changes with major impacts on society over the coming two decades..
Enabling information and communication technoloogies this affects almost all aspects of society. These six megatrends were written-up
The second selected axis was based on the‘science and society'driver. At one end of this axis
'171 independently from society (e g. in terms of scientists setting the agenda and the lack of strong engagement of science and scientists in decision-making processes.
At the other end, science is engaged highly with society. These are referred to as‘detached'and‘engaged'science society relationships.
While this approach to scenario building has some drawbacks, e g. a certain rigidity that can sometimes stifle creativity,
Science and society: The relationship between science and society is likely to have a significant impact on the future of international science.
This includes the ways in which science receives its mandate from society and how science feeds back its knowledge to society especially at the policy level.
The shape of these processes will also have implications for science education and how appreciation of and trust in science will evolve.
Private sector/military science: The funding and settings for international science will be influenced by the proportions of science conducted in nonacademic settings where market economy,
and faith-based societies could have implications for the scientific process especially in the international science area.
and addressing controversial areas of science in areas of high public interest will be significant for the relationship between science and society.
and visioning science in society and to reflect on the organisation and activities of the international scientific community.
By 2031 global science (natural sciences, social sciences, engineering and humanities) has played a significant role in helping to build a more sustainable world by working with society to address the major challenges associated with sustainable development.
to rapidly assess new areas of scientific advance that have implications for the benefit of society.
Maintaining the integrity of science was recognised as being critical to building an effective relationship between science and society, especially around global issues.
and society and the responsibilities that scientists have with regard to this relationship. Outreach and education: ICSU recognised that its effectiveness in addressing societies concerns about complex international science could be answered partly by ensuring effective outreach in the context of each of its programmes.
In this context, ICSU now plays the central role in communicating the results of interdisciplinary global research to international fora.
2006) Strengthening International Science for the Benefit of Society: ICSU Strategic Plan 2006 2011. Paris:
Royal Society. 2011) Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global Scientific Collaboration in the 21st century. London: Royal Society.
Schwartz, P. 1998) The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World.
Teixeira, A.,Martin, B. and von Tunzelmann, N. 2002)‘ Identification of Key Emerging Issues in Science and Society:
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