The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations.
the global reach of climate change and associated health and environmental risks. These call for new types of institutiion that effectively design,
The dynamic internatiiona environment requires policy-makers to be prepared better for the‘unexpected 'and to be in a position to instigate timely responses.
the individual capabilities and mindsets to anticipate change in fast-changing environments;.the institutional and organisational setup of FTA;.
Social and environmental challenges deal with the causes and consequences of issues such as climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society,
and the medium-to long-term impacts associated with them, for example in the case of climate change or environmental change.
namely to address the entire R&i ecology and its embedding in other policies to tackle grand societal challenges,
Improving the robustness and dynamics of the R&i ecology to address (global) disruptions and engineer breakthroughs.
or shortfalls in the R&i ecology relating to lock in to obsolete technologies or business models, and old networks which require realignment.
and tackle structural deficiencies in the R&i ecology..Addressing grand challenges requires public appreciattio of the important role played by R&i in meeting social, environmental and other needs.
Grand challennge go beyond the domain of research policy and require structured interactions with a broad range of related policy domains (European research area Board 2009;
FTA in support of organisations'and institutioons embedding in decision-making is needed in the light of a fast-changing turbulent environment.
or not strongly depends on the wider institutional and organisatioona environment in which FTA is embedded, be it in the private or the public sector. Ultimately,
and Joint Programming tends to favour such flexible arrangements for realizing FTA. 4. Conclusions This paper has explored FTA responses to a highly dynamic environment where disruptive events highlight the fragility of governance systems.
In general, the shift from short-term projects and programmes to institutionalised forms of FTA is due to the demanding policy environment
social or environmental crisis, society is in a position to address them beforehand, either to deal with the likely consequences
Examples of grand challenges from climate change to increasing resource depletion emphasise the need for international, indeed, global responses.
The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
following signals of potential climate change as a consequence of increasing CO2 emissions, the scientific community, under the aegis of ICSU, established the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme.
In the area of climate change the International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) was established also by the WMO
and the UN Environment Programme in 1987 to carry out integrated assessments of scientific evidence. It has engaged over 3,
000 scientists and has produced four assessment reports since then. Another example of modern international research collaboration is the Human Genome Project (HGP),
from climate change to AIDS, are inherently international in nature, has led also to a new global approach to research in many areas.
This exercise reinforced the continued importance of ICSU's historical areas of interest, mainly focused around the environment,
particularly climate change, involve change over relatively long time periods measured at least in decades. But this is too long for an exercise that is focused on organisational agility and a vision for international science cooperatiion Given the relative trade-offs,
but in others, many of the problems faced in 2010 were discussed already widely, e g. environmental concerns.
possibly informed by greater consideration of the environment. State sovereignty, regionalism and globalism: The scale at which policy (such as that on the environment) will be determined is not clear.
The outcome of these decisions will have implication for global organisations such as the UN. Models of state sovereignty may be challenged by regional groupings,
and signals outside the immediate environment and helps to identify potential threats and opportunities. It thus helps to overhaul the so-called market lock in.
it is about contemplating signals in a systemic environment through a systemic process of pro-action, action and reaction.
With regard to a set of pressing‘grand challennges such as climate change, an aging population, depletiio of mineral resources or shortages of food and water, roadmapping can identify latent societal demand, for example, in the context of sustainability.
This is common, for example, in environmental innovation. Social and economic costs created by emissiion and pollution are not always easy to allocate to those who generate them.
and to create demonstration and piloting environments. Thirdly, policies could be about setting product certification
Retrofitting existing stock to meet environmental standards SOLUTIONS: Assessment and certification services; Low-energy concepts;
Verification of environmental impacts SOLUTIONS: Zero energy concepts; Distributed building services systems (e g. cooling, air conditioning, heating;
public funding for research and technology development, technoloog validation and the verification of environmental impacts. Financial support for collaborative Industrial r&d will provide the basis for an innovation-driven construction industry,
Extending natural resources Technology roadmap 3: Optimizing systems Increasing awareness of global consequences of climate change Economic recession Emission trading starts to have effect on companies Rising living standards in BRIC countries Green values:
duration, upgradeability, recyclability Global treaties, initiatives and campaigns on environmental questions Shortage of fossil fuels and fresh water Standardization of green monitoring solutions REGULATION AND DEMAND-SIDE POLICIES:
Consumer behaviour; Standardisation; Utilization of natural resources; Progressive public procurement of green ICT solutions; Economic incentives Increasing prices of energy and raw materials No regulation or economic incentives governmental activities do not encourage the utilization of sustainable ICTS Systemic issues:
life cycle emissions of products not known, information fragmented in isolated systems SYSTEMIC POLICIES: Management of complex of information systems;
The first is increasing awareness of the global consequences of climate change. The second is the economic recession.
it can be a driver for environmental solutions by focusing on issues such as the reduction of materials
if firms and organizations modify their environmental agendas and deem investments in this area to be unnecessary.
In the long term, drivers other than just climate change will play a larger role globally. The scarcity of some critical resources, such as fresh water and rare earth metals, will have major effects.
management solutions based on robotics Distributed small-scale energy production Remote collaboration products Enabling technologies Methods and processes for environmental impact assessment of products and services,
for waste management and recycling Web 3. 0 in advanced identification and recognition technologies for waste management and recycling Data mining technologies 3d environments and
virtual worlds ICT solutions, like cloud computing, for smart grids Electricity storages for smart grids 3d Internet technologies Figure 5. Technology roadmap on‘extending natural resources'as a subset of a transformation
and refer to more‘standard'types of practicces like regulation that affects consumer behaviour, standardization and the utilization of natural resources.
there will be different types of services that utilize data from ICT embedded in our everyday environment.
and handle complex data on environmental sustainabiilit (automatically) are entering the market. In industry, new manufacturing paradigms are evolving
technology roadmap on‘extending natural resources'In the final part of the case study section we present an example of a technology roadmap constructed as a subset of the transformation roadmap (see Fig. 5). The topic of the exemplary roadmap is‘extending natural resources'.
In the medium term, ecodesign tools are used widely to minimize the environmental impacts of products over their life cycle.
and processes for the environmental impact assessment of products and services, including carbon footprinting. The modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA methods are also available.
in order to adapt research programmes to the dynamic environment. To this end a foresight and programming unit (FPU) was established,
environmental and transport-related perspective, leading to a strengthened global position in Europe'(Urban Europe, 2011) Determine specific research needs and roadmaps, short-and long-term policy measures,
and implementation plans'depends on the envisaged role that is ascribed to a specific foresight activity in an evolving innovation environment.
Food Security and Climate change have no openness to other EU Member States. 7. Platforms collecting data on foresight exercises can offer deeper insights into possible and desired futures of research priorities, e g.<
economy, mobility, environment and ecology. 31. The UEF aims to establish a continuous dialogue between stakeholders
which will help to better prepare policy-and decision-makers in today's complex and interdependent environments.
the vast majority of people appear to be vulnerable to social and economic instability and hostility due to the economic recession, lack of fresh water, shortages of food and energy, climate change, regional conflicts,
environmental and political developmennts National horizon scanning activities have been carried out as in the UK, The netherlands and Denmark (Van Rij 2010a).
which is extended at the margins of the known environment and possibly beyond it (Loveridge 2009.
As the signal starts to have visible negative impacts on its environment possible controversies and disruptions may emerge alongsiid a general frustration about the lost opportunity to be informed earlier about the potential upcoming developmennts This forms a difficult challenge for scanners who Table 2. Comparison of tools
scanning results may only be accepted with reluctance in evidence-based policy-making environments. In this regard, obtaining relevant informattio alongside validating sources,
2010)‘ A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25:1 7. Sutherland, W. J.,Fleishman, E.,Mascia, B.,Pretty
, J. and Rudd, M. 2011)‘ Methods for collaboratively identifying research priorities and emerging issues in science and policy',Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2: 238 47.
For example, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) defined horizon scanning in 2002 as:..the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning'and, continuing,
Here, the need for horizon scanning is intensified effecttivel by the long lead times for bringing about desired policy impacts (cf. climate change mitigatioon) Taking this remark further,
while others have focused on specific fields such as telemedicine (Blackburn et al. 2010), security (Botterhuis et al. 2010), environmental conservation (Sutherland et al. 2011),
participatory workshop activities offer policymakker an inspiring environment where they can openly discuss the implications of alternative future developments for policy-making in general as well as for their own responsibilities in particular.
demography, migration and health. economy, trade and financial flows. environment, energy, climate change and agriculture. research, innovation and (e)- education.
The need to change current ways in which essential natural resources are used..The need to anticipate
The need to change the uses of essential natural resources by aligning all policy realms towards sustainabillity extending from policy design through implementtatio to evaluation..
the recommendations have been useful in discussiion within the EC, for instance on the sustainable use of natural resources
Issue code Key words from issue description (optional) Save natural resources (water, food) to prevent conflicts over their scarcity
and other impacts such as migration 1 DI04 Massive migration due to climate change 3 ENV03 Global underpricing
Measures to save natural resources (mainly water and food) have to be applied worldwide. In addition, technologies have to be developed
The limitations of environmental management systems for innovation',Journal of Business strategy and the Environment, 16: 525 37.
OECD. 2008) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030. Paris: OECD. Rossel, P. 2011)‘ Beyond the obvious:
2011)‘ Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 26:10 6. Taleb, N. N. 2007) The Black swan:
The last trend is the increasing scarcity of natural resources and the vulnerability of the planet with the new geopolitics of energy,
technology megatrends, converging technologies,‘biologilisation',miniaturisation, intelligent environments etc. These developments were addressed directly in the Fraunhofer foresight process at that time (Klingner et al. 2008.
and programs and reverse loss of environmental resources Target 10 Halve, by 2015, proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation Target 11 have achieved by 2020 a significant improvement in lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers Goal 8
affordable health. environment: life-cycle production. mobility: reliable, low-emission mobility in urban areas. security: detection and handling of disasters 5. 2 Dedicated projects:
Environment: life-cycle production (a) molecular sorting: molecular sorting for resource efficiency None of the project proposals that focussed on mobility
in which teams from different Fraunhofer knowledge domains worked towards Table 2. Megatrends in society, environment and economy Globalisation/localisation (And lack of control) of trade, capital and terrorism;
energy consumption results in resource depletion The development of alternative energies, revival of nuclear energy, decreasing consumption of resources Climate change Slowing climate change through political processes, additional stress caused by population growth and wealth
Mobility 5 0 28 Health care 8 2 40 Energy 6 2 32 Security 1 0 13 Environment 5 1 24
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