Making scanning results public would allow people concerned with complex phenomena, like geopolitics, climate change, or issues at the interplay between science and society, to keep track of the content of one's intellectual portfolio of knowledge
and benefits that can be expected from the diffusion of the technologies under scrutiny (how will their diffusion affect quality of life, the conservation of natural resources, landscape integrity, ecosystem services etc.).
www. efonet. org), transport and climate change. Also in regional cohesion policy there are possibilities for blending quantitative and quantitative approaches,
and the uncertainty that derives from an insufficient knowledge of complex phenomena (e g. climate change). Ultimately, what matters is that methods
For instance, the consultative dimension of SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment) has proven essential to build consensus amongst stakeholders around the long-term effects of large infrastructure projects.
the case of energy and environment policies, Peter Lang, 2010. ISBN 978-90-5201-586-6 pb. 33 N. Shibata, Y. Kajikawa, Y. Takeda,
He contributed to several ex-ante and ex-post Impact assessment studies of FP programmes and activities in the fields of Environment, Bio-based economy and Socioeconomic sciences and humanities.
Technology life cycle Patent Indicator Cathode ray tube Thin film transistor liquid crystal display Nano-biosensor 1. Introduction The rapidly changing economic environment
, fluctuations in demand, regulations, ethical or environmental concerns. In addition, one would want to address the potential unintended, indirect,
ecology and life cycle, Ph d. dissertation, Da-Yeh University, Taiwan, 2005.28 S. Q. Ding, The commemoration for 100th anniversary of the cathode ray tube, Chin.
It serves almost exclusively to the human (genetically inherited) quick capacity of response to rapidly changing environments
Early applications of adaptive policies are also found in the field of environmental management 30,31,
Energy is a crucial domain inwhich a fundamental transition toward clean generation technologies is desirable 47 for environmental and security reasons.
towards an evolutionary environmental economics, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 76 (2009) 462 470.29 L. K. Mytelka, K. Smith, Policy learning and innovation theory:
Policy 31 (2002) 1467 1479.30 C. S. Holling, Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management, John Wiley & Sons, New york, 1978.31 R. J. Mclain
Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment, Island Press, Washington, 1993.33 D. Collingridge, The Social control of Technology, Frances Pinter Publisher, London, UK, 1980.34 J. P. Brans
His applied interests include climate change/energy issues, public health and health policies, financial crisis and energy systems. His current research interests are adaptive policy making and the use of optimization in policy-making.
Applied interests include economic-financial crises, climate change and energy system transitions, and inter/national safety and security. 418 C. Hamarat et al./
The uncertainty airport planners face is located mainly in the external environment affecting the airport. The uncertainty about the internal workings of an airport is comparatively small.
The prime example being the role of uncertainty in relation to models used in the context of climate change debates.
Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future, Columbia University Press, New york, USA, 2007.7 R. J. Lempert, S. Popper, S. Bankes, Shaping The next One hundred Years:
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System User's Manual, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, WASHINGTON DC, 2009.42 P. G. Cowell, R. Gerrard, D
Today's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment and poverty go beyond economic and social policies 9. Grand challenges are interrelated usually
Therefore innovation research needs increasingly be oriented towards the challenges presented by environmental complexity and socioeconomic turbulence 25.
the strategic discussion has its origin in uncertainty, both in the external environment and within the organization.
Responding to this emotive and cognitive disruption requires participants to think in ways that produce innovative and competitive solutions in a changing environment The DP21 scenarios (see Appendix 1) are a good example.
changes in the external environment are part of the scenarios. But in contrast with the first group, change is described less by framing very different long-term future worlds.
and confronted with a changing environment. Different from the above group, this one already leverages the combined use of roadmaps.
PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe. 437 P. De Smedt et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The images of the future are focused on key internal developments
Interaction between the organization and the environment is seen as the main driver. This is often reflected in the outcomes envisioning a preferable future and experiments towards that future.
and innovation to meet necessary change and uncertainties in the agri-food sector facing resource constrains and environmental limits.
climate change, food security, rural development, agricultural knowledge systems. The 2nd SCAR Foresight exercise. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://ec. europa. eu/research/agriculture/scar/pdf/scar 2nd foresight exercise en. pdf 6. 3rd SCAR Foresight exercise EC (2011), Sustainable
European commission DG RTD, Directorate E Unit E. 4, Brussel. 7. Prelude EEA (2006) Prelude (PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe) scenarios.
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, NL. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at www. pbl. nl/en. 13.
Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://www. unep. org/geo/GEO3/pdfs/four scenarios europe. pdf. 16.
Prospects and Scenarios 4, European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen, Denmark, 2000.3 T. Fuller, P. De Smedt, D. Rothman, Advancing foresight methodology through networked conversation, in:
Chang. 72 (2005) 59 73.8 A. Wilkinson, E. Eidinow, Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology, Environ.
and no experts represented the social sciences, humanities, innovation studies, environmental studies or science and technology studies. At this stage, the FTA ACTIVITIES did not involve a broad range of stakeholders.
& Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 approaches to address environmental, health, safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
as in the case of emerging technologies, the diverse and dynamic environment enables the actors within the pluralistic system to use FTA to build up governance networks
In 2006, the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) established the Nanokommission a stakeholder commission on nanotechnologies as part of the federal government's high-tech strategy.
The Nanokommission itself organized a dialogue where representatives of environmental and consumer organizations a women's association and a medical practitioners'organization, trade unions, churches, academia, industry and government bodies (such as federal ministries and agencies as well as ministries on the regional and state level) discussed their positions 51.
such as other ministries and their agencies (for instance the BMU and the Federal Environment Agency) stepped in only after the funding strategy was established already.
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection (BMELV), Federal Ministry of Defence (BMVG), Federal
such as the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) focus on regulation issues relevant for their domain without being involved fully in the ecosystem of nano-related Innovation policy definition
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), 2011, Berlin. 52 BMBF, Action Plan Nanotechnology 2015, BMBF, Bonn, 2011.53 T
Sustainable Everyday, Scenarios of Urban Life, 2003, pp. 246 255.26 F. Jégou, S. Vincent, Co-design approaches for early phases of augmented environments, in:
S. Lahlou (Ed.),Designing User Friendly Augmented Work Environments From Meeting Rooms to Digital Collaborative Spaces, Springer verlag, London, 2009.27 P. Warnke, E
In the past the demand environment for foresight on research and innovation policy favoured application to priority-setting and articulation of demand.
In the current less stable economic, political and social environment it is possible to apply such a lens to the preceding two or three decades.
This landscape has formed the demand environment for FTA ACTIVITIES and has influenced largely the practice of the field.
How then has the new environment affected FTA? Is it managing to co-evolve with
and technology are making the greatest possible contribution to economic prosperity, public health, environmental quality, and national security.
In a discussion of the use of the concept of systems thinking in foresight, Saritas distinguishes between external and internal context 6. The external context is the set of STEEPV factors (Social, Technological, Economical, Environment, Political
) The interactive aggregate of common characteristics that influence a human group's response to its environment''20.
Following the second round, an additional two exercises were carried out by the Agency for Forest and Nature and the Agency for Environmental Protection.
or opportunities, be broad enough to ensure effective competition among Danish research environments in the call for proposals for strategic research funding,
but the most important methodological Box 1. Final priorities in the Research2015 catalogue 34 Energy, climate and the environment Energy systems of the future Future climate and climate adaption Competitive environment
Human health and safety in the interaction with environment factors Healthy lifestyle what creates change?
Theme Budgets in millions of DKKS 2009 2010 Energy, climate and environment Energy systems of the future 190 455 Future climate and climate adaptation 43 0 Climate
and developments in the contextual environment are connected. In addition, scenario analysis is the systematic analysis of a variety of uncertainties combined into distinctive stories about the future (see 2). In this article
According to a recent study by the European Environmental Agency 6, there is insufficient empirical evidence of the added value of scenario analysis in general,
each in the context of the development of a strategic environment plan (see 16, 17), that was developed for the first and second Limburg environment plan (covering a long term vision
and strategies for the entire province) respectively (see 18 and 19). In the development process of the first environment plan, qualitative scenarios were developed by an external organisation in a broad participatory process.
A project team of the Provincial organisation monitored the scenario analysis project. In the development of the second plan, quantitative scenarios were produced.
and the environment plans. N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, the environment in which futures studies are conducted is complex,
N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 25 14 M. Van de Kerkhof, Debating Climate change.
(Limburg, One Generation Further. 4 Scenarios on Demographics, Economy and the Environment), Maastricht, 2006.18 Provincie Limburg, Provinciaal Omgevingsplan Limburg.
Liefde voor Limburg (Provincial Environment Plan Limburg. Love for Limburg), Maastricht, 2001.19 Provincie Limburg, Provinciaal Omgevingsplan Limburg (Provincial Environment Plan), Maastricht, 2006.20 Deelgemeente Overschie, Overschie verkennen,(Exploring Overschie), Deelgemeente
Overschie, Rotterdam, 2005.21 M. Oude Vrielink, J. Bron, Evaluatie Trendbureau Overijssel. Wie geen vraag heeft zoekt geen antwoord,(Evaluation of Trendbureau Overijssel.
and related interconnected systems (e g. social, technological, economic, environmental, political, value, cultural, among others) 6. Managers of international exercises must also take into account the distinctiveness of local, regional and national subsysstem around the world.
Moreover, there is also the need to adapt the process and results to changes in the environment.
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004
and to create an environment for user innovation in a broad sense 13. In spite of the terminological differences, a common, explicit focus is put on dialogue, co-production, societal learning, joint agenda-building, etc.
The purchase was influenced largely by others in the immediate environment of the NP3. The NP3 is still watching TV in a more traditional way.
IF studies in Living Lab environments seem promising, especially for the purpose of detecting unexpected uses
and processes) and exogenous ones (e g. environmental uncertainty and technology). The truth is stated that, as by 18,
The first phase (organisational strategy) consists in supporting the definition of the strategic positioning of a firm within its environment.
and its environment will serve as input for a continuous feedback related to its mission, values and politics.
i e. the way in which strengths and weaknesses, both internal (firm) and external environment, including value chain),
These enabled the creation of an environment that welcomed diversity and different perspectives to build a joint understanding
the conversational environment (phase 3) and the feedback mechanisms developed (phase 4) allowed an increase in effectiveness regarding public management.
due to the bureaucracy in place, did not allow the consolidation of the conversational environment created while implementing the proposed system.
considering a new regulatory framework and competitive environment. The objective was to change the current management model based on improvisation
-based assessment of the external environment 60 SWOT analysis 26 There is a lack of any system to define measures linked to consistent targets 58,59 Quality Function Deployment (QFD) 58 SWOT analysis
a social and environmental critique, in: Proceedings from the 3rd International Conference on Performance Measurement and Management:
Rijkswaterstaat WINN Rijkswaterstaat (RWS, part of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment) is responsible for the management and implementation of the Dutch road and water infrastructure.
and developing innovative solutions for water management in The netherlands with many partners 49. However, a mixed image emerged with regard to the presence and use of an image of the future regarding the innovation processes of WINN in the past.
3) The exchange of knowledge between organizations and their external environment was expected to become more important in the future 10.
It aims at providing an innovative environment where knowledge is pooled, new ideas are generated and a legal framework for the free flow of information is created.
At the end of 2009, the first three KICS in the areas of climate change (Climate KIC), energy (KIC Innoenergy) and Information and Communication Technologies (EIT ICT Labs;
and explore innovations for Dutch water management. While the process model was adopted to integrate multiple parties as well,
the foresight activities were used to develop strategic guidance for the future in water management, to identify new business opportunities
and assess and reposition the activities in place for water management. Thus, the strategist role as defined by Rohrbeck
it can only create an adequate environment with supporting instruments. Beyond that, collaborative innovation requires a change in the mindset of the people within the organizations.
The EIT ICT Labs are an attempt to create an environment of open innovation, but the people therein still appear to be need in of adapting to the new notion of sharing results.
and consolidate knowledge and opinions related to water management. The former are those activities that are conducted predominantly between the contract partners RWS and Deltares, the latter within the larger, loosely coupled network of experts.
and to initiate new solutions for water management enhanced through external support and knowledge. In the sense of this article the WINN activities can be characterized as foresight supported by a loosely linked network.
HE RECENT ONSET OF CRISES AND challenges ranging from climate change, finanncia and economic downturns, to security threats highlight a rising need to incorporate more forward-looking approaches into the decisionmakkin processes of public and private organisations and stakeholders all around the world.
in order to suit better the needs of decision-makers and their changing environment, and that there is an urgeen need to inform decision-makers of the potential value of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES (Johnston and Cagnin, 2010).
Adaptive foresight is applied by Abadie et al. to the highly uncertain environment of the European creative content industries as part of the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
These may take place in the immediate business (or transacttion environment, but may also be broader social or regulatory trends.
such as the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) in the UK (DEFRA, 2006), the Ministry of Economic Affairs of The netherlands (Ministerie van Economische Zaken, 1998), The french Department of Transport
if they focus on security, environment or the economy. Horizon scanning on the national level, across all policy areas (including S&t opportunities) is a receen development
A more recent case is the Horizonscan of the Environment Research Fundeers Forum in the UK (Environment Research Fundeers Forum, 2007.
environment (ecological; and politics and public services. Although some issues could be placed in two or even three categories,
A Table 2. Subcategories Society S&t Economy and finance Environment (ecological) Politics, government, public services Social values S&t reflection Market Hydrosphere Legitimacy-democracy
and education S&t development Economical context/finance Economics Economy Physical environment Environment Nature Resources Political, administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held
not only in the economic and environmental sense, but also in different other societal value dimensions (health, longevity, human rights, social cohesion, law-based democratic society, international relations etc.).
COS was the umbrella organisation of the so-called sector councils for R&d that were established by Dutch law during the 1980s to provide strategic knowledge questions for departmental policies in a number of policy domains (environment, agriculture, health,
scans Society 18.5 22.4 7. 5 15.6 S&t 16.4 8. 8 15.1 13.7 Economy/finance 21.2 21 6 18.9 20.5 Environment
/ecology 13.7 15.2 23.3 17.7 Politics/public services 30.1 32.0 35.2 32.6 Total number of issues 146 125 159 430 Note:*
but also to the widely assumed connection to climate change, the futuur technological possibilities and scientific breakthroough (which all may lead to better ways for saving,
Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs UK government, 2006, Horizon scanning and Futures Team, Sciennc Economics and Statistics DG, 2006.
Environment Research Funders'Forum, 2007. An Environment Research Funders'Forum report-horizon scanning study. Available from<http://www. erff. org. uk/publications/reports/20071212-horizonscanning-report. aspx>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Eriksson, E A and M Weber 2006. Adaptive foresight Navigating, the complex landscape of policy strategies. Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 20 with the creative environment in which content activiitie unfold that make the creative content sector a fertile ground for radical innovations or disruptions
potentially changing the competiitiv environment of entire countries. Disruptions are therefore as much a threat to inflexible older businesses as an opportunity for more flexible new entrants.
any attempt at environmental impact assessment would have gone far beyond the scope of the project. The policy analysis phase aimed to look not only at the issues as such
thriving in an open environment where ICTS innovatiio enables direct communication with distant or nascent audiences.
innovative enterprises that experts regaar as the drivers of technological and business changes can be supported in an environment that is currently dominated by a few globally active corporations;
Table 5. Foresight objectives Main objective Sub-objectives Increase societal and economic well-being Economic growth and national competitiveness Societal well being, covering social, environmental, cultural
and bioterrorism that impacts the economy, environment, and public health. More technically, dealing with biosecurity can be considered in terms of informatiio generation and collection, information managemment information analysis,
and changing food supplies due to the impact of climate change on land and water supplies. Emerging infectious diseases While severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza have attracted major attention in receen years,
combating environmental degradation; promoting sustainable development; and creating capabilities for managing international crises. In the US the term‘converging technologies'was used first at a 2001 workshop organized by the US National science Foundation and the US Departmeen of Commerce entitled‘Converging Technologiie for Improving Human Performance'.
His recent research interests incluude converging technologies to combat emerging infectiiou diseases and climate change. Ponpiboon Satangput graduated from the University of Cambridge in 2001
and hence the prompt and efficiien transfer of information from the research enviroonmen into the policy environment is a critical component of effectively combating EID.
interdisciplinary research on quality of experience (Qoe) and quality of service (Qos) in mobile media environments, evaluation of user-and futureorieente innovation techniques in the ICT domain,
She is preparing a Phd thesis on the measurement of Qoe in a mobile media environment.
new media and advertissing She is currently working on a Phd thesis on advertisiin in a digital media environment based on the IBBT research project ADME (website<http://projects. ibbt. be/adme>).
The main contribution of this work involves the development of a‘segmentation forecastting tool for prior-to-launch prediction of adoption potentiial and the development of a blueprint for better introduction strategies for ICT innovations in today's volatile market environment.
interactive applicatioons personalization, recommendation systems and evaluation of Qoe and quality of service (Qos) in mobile environments.
Living labs are innovation environments that provide full-scale test-bed possibilities for inventing, prototyping, interaactiv testing and marketing of (new) mobile technology applications (Schumacher and Niitamo, 2008;
Contrary to other test platforms, living labs provide a more natural testing environment and strongly encouurag continuous and meaningful interaction betwwee developers/suppliers and users.
In this respect, the blueprint of a new interdiscciplinar approach for correlating Qoe to Qos parameters in a living lab environment is expanded upon in this paper.
it covered a wireless environment offering various applications to a large panel of test users via different platforms (e g. personal digital assisstan (PDA), laptop etc.).
i e. the identification of mobile opportunnities started with a wide scan of mobile applicattion that are possibly of interest for a wireless city environment.
The first consisted of members of the i-City panel, all familiar with advanced mobile applications and their use in a city environment.
we developed a five-step interdiscipplinar approach for linking Qoe to Qos parameters in living lab environments.
These tests were performed in an indooo environment at four different locations with a different signal strength at each location.
new applications that are tested in the natural environment would therefore only be an additional layer on top of the‘domesticated'netwoork and devices.
Towards quality of experience in advanced collaborative environmments Paper presented at the Third Annual Workshop on Advanced Collaborative Environments, held 22 june 2003, Seattlle WA, USA.
The challenge of user-and Qoe-centric research and product development in today's ICT environment.
These grand challenges include the dynamics of demograpphic (ageing and migration), food supply, environmentta sustainability, climate change, decarbonised economic systems, poverty, terrorism, not to mention the continuing fallout from the long-running‘global financial crisis':
Nowhere is this impotence more apparent than in the response to the issue of climate change
These included the continuing adaptation of FTA to the changing economic and policy environment. This is instanced by the recent reframing of FTA from contributing to evidence-based policy towards a greater emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives.
A tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision-making is needed in the context of a fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment.
and pro-active policy action which can assist policy-and decision-makers in today's complex and interdependent environments.
understanndin and preparing for the effects of climate change and the associated development of a decarbonised global economic system:
This paper discusses this decision-making environment and a relevant Brazilian Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 245 257 doi:
From this brief introduction about the environment of governance social engagement and foresight, it can be seen that the discussion about intangibles should be focused more on state-of-the-practices than the state-of-the-art.
the specificities of the theme considered, the institutional environment created and, not least, the time available to complete the exercise.
and the future of complex themes, such as climate change, demography, biodiversity, bioethanol, energy efficiency etc. In the last three years, CGEE has conducted some relevant national strategic foresight exercises,
This also helps to create the environment for an innovative dialogue to be established, perhaps one of the most imporrtan outcomes of any collective intelligence-based process.
and environment scanning are established frequently. This phase also produces the key information components, which will support further analysis in the future.
techno-economic, strategic, environmental and social Identification of an initial list of 63 technological topics Identification of seven priority technological topics, considdere‘robust'Multi-criteria analysis:
because the uncertainty and compleexit of the environment demanded an approach which offered stakeholders a tool for collective reasoning without the need to definine strategies or elaborate decisions,
and conclussion are strictly related to the Brazilian environment and reality. The present authors hope to expand this experiienc to other cultures, societies and realities.
Construction of S&t Infrastructures and Construction of the S&t Industrialization Environment) 3 to‘basic+mega',reflecting the greater emphasis placed on basic research and infrastructure,
energy, information resources and environment, populatiio and health, materials etc..The objectives are to produce groundbreaking research that addresses importaan scientific issues concerning national economic and social development.
90 156 168 Information science 79 81 105 85 114 80 159 153 Environment science 138 108 150 105 146 125
strengthening linkages between academic environments and industry, supporting high value-added industry, and strengthening China's international prestige.
and environmental degradation. From a historical perspective we have identified waves of modernization strategies, drawing S&t ever closer into the political core.
) Only in the early 1990s, with the gradually developed environment for pharmaceutical research, did some universities,
This means that a firm does not innovate in isolation but rather in interacttio with its environment.
Such environments are complex by nature and difficult, indeed, mostly impossible, to shape with a view to directing innovation in a predictabbl top-down manner.
with firms and other innovating actors operating in linked environments of institutions and other actors.
This is especially relevant for certain challenges like those related to environment and natural resources. Finding a solution to the problem of scarce energy resources,
It is an emergent trend encouraging activities that generate mutual benefit to business and society or the natural environment (Bright et al. 2006.
and has formulated ambitious policy objectives for climate change, energy security, demographic ageing and resource efficiency. At the same time the Europe 2020 Strategy notes that a partnership approach should extend to EU committees, to national parliaments and national, local and regional authorities,
The first ones were created in the areas of climate change, energy and informmatio and communications technologies. In 2011, the JRC-IPTS supported the European Institute of technology to identify potential priority areas for new KICS from 2013.
and environment',BAWB Interactive Working Paper Series 1 (1), pp. 17 33.<<http://worldbenefit. case. edu/research/paperseries/?
Fundamental and applied research',Report of the Environment Advisory Group, December 2010. Brussels: European commission. Edquist, C. 2008)‘ Design of innovation policy through diagnossti analysis:
Prepared for the European commission, Research Directorate-General, Directorate 1 Environment, November 2010. Brussels: IDEA Consult.
I.,Smith, A. and Van Zwanenberg, P. 2009)‘ Transformative innovation',A research report for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs. Brighton:
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011