, North-South Issues, Governance, Health of Democracy, Failed States Global, Cyber terrorism & Nuclear & Bio WMD Water, Food and Resource Shortages, Disasters O. Saritas,
governance in dealing with critical issues Escalation of terrorism and political instability Increased global unrest related to resource shortage and affordability Nationalist and nativist backlash prevents the world from realising globalization
Many of the most articulately described drivers were associated those with the management uncertainties of change in the environmental, governance and globalization response systems.
Cyber crime and network vulnerabilities from failure of human systems Increased barriers to access to natural resources Growing organizational and governance incapacity Water recognised as a valuable resource
with the next area being new governance models. Overall, the lists provide a fertile field for some real dramatic change scenarios centred on some key discontinuities.
The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
The most outstanding support elements of the urban planning process are the governance model the legal framework, the technology base and the management skills.
In Scenario A, there are significant improvements in the governance model at the local level. Progress is reflected by transparent decision-making, effective public participation, public-private co-operation and better coordination among different levels of administration.
Figure 5 Scenario B‘‘predator development''PAGE 324 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Conditions inherent to Scenario B favour a local governance model that is opaque
In this scenario, the governance model is managed by a strong centralised power base (probably the State) that makes major decisions regarding the pattern of urban development to be implemented by regional and local authorities.
This governance model allows for direct feedback by citizens'groups to public authorities, its major drawback Figure 6 Scenario C‘‘back to basics''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 325 being the threat of majorities imposing decisions on minority
so that it can implement an advanced, transparent governance model. Suggested strategies for Scenario B. In the predator development scenario
B Build a governance model that is capable of effectively integrating politicians, stakeholders, social movements and citizens on an equal footing.
B The transformation of the planning process will require reciprocal changes in the legal framework and the governance model.
as well as in governance and business models. The second set of findings shows the advisability of reinforcing foresight tools to make them more attractive and reliable for urban planners.
which altogether can help to improve a territory's governance. In brief the present research lays the foundations for the integration of foresight methods with urban planning processes
His professional and academic interests are focussed on strategic planning, territorial foresight and governance studies. He is the author of several articles and books related to strategic planning and foresight tools.
or the continuous expansion of the predominant role of private governance mechanisms or the reinstatement of state-connected institutions and legal regimes.
which go hand in hand with a growing dominance of public-private or even private governance mechanisms.
European commission (2002), European Governance: Better Lawmaking, COM (2002) 275 Final, European commission, Brussels. Gasco'n, G. 2005),‘Compstat Plus:
and new governance structures are evolving, reflecting growing interdependence and complexity and the need for decision-making under uncertainty.
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovations in organisations and governance',
and sectors of society probabilistically to express their relevant uncertainties How to deepen dialogue with society How to improve governance Because of the dominant role of subjective opinion,
) Table 2. Foresight objectives in relation to the arenas of governance. Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority-setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority-setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
New approaches to governance. Futures 43, no. 3: 279 91. Coates, V.,M. Farooque, R. Klavans, K. Lapid, H. A. Linstone, C. Pistorius,
Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises. Paper prepared for the STRATA ETAN Expert Group action on Mobilising the Regional foresight Potential for an Enlarged European union.
either from the perspective of business or governance, requires integration of competencies over the traditional sectoral boundaries.
Second, the public organisations are increasingly facing societal demands to move towards more transitional mission-oriented governance regimes,
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
PAGE 20 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 B multi-stakeholder dialogues for governance on an international level, for example in the environmental area;
1. Global governance and political economy; 2. Social values; 3. Climate change; 4. Demographic pressures; 5. Mobility and transport;
Table III List of thematic groups, drivers and trends identified Theme Drivers and trends Global governance and political economy Rise of the BRICS Global trade falters The emergence of new
middle classes Uncertain results for banking regulation A challenge to liberal democracy models Conflict follows geopolitical shifts Terrorism continues to pose a threat to security A multi-polar governance system Religion
Ireland‘‘punches above its weight''in international arenas achieving a strong reputation as an independent country with good governance and respect for its global commitments and partnerships.
Its strong institutional and governance arrangements are an advantage as a small, smart country. However, Ireland is challenged in maintaining this position as the smaller countries become increasingly marginalised within multilateral frameworks
and where the traditional political and governance models are being disrupted. How can Ireland maintain its standing
it emerged as a grand challenge reflecting key uncertainties of senior decision-makers operating in a small state as it adapted to changing external conditions in economics and governance.
and policy governance sub-systems in which FTA is embedded (or on the contrary, with which certain FTA APPROACHES would clash).
(i) the perceived policy needs/opportunities to be tackled by FTA,(ii) the chosen FTA APPROACH and its methods and (iii) the policy governance sub-system,
At the same time, they do not fit into current institutional and governance structures. In that sense dealing with grand challenges introduces new conceptual, methodological and operational challenges for FTA.
and governance levels 10. They typically involve complex and systemic relationships within and between social, technological, economic, environmental, and value systems.
The very nature of grand challenges in most cases requires co-operation and co-ordination across (i) policy domains and (ii) governance (policy) levels.
and demographic or environmental factors feasible in the current policy governance structures? do need we FTA (more precisely:
foresight as part of the broader set of FTA) on innovation systems and governance structures? To what extent the current decision-makers and other major‘gatekeepers'would be open to launch and finance such exercises,
Shaper-Rinkel 13 analyses future-oriented governance of emerging technologies in the USA and in Germany,
and perspectives from the outset of an endeavour in order to properly foster nanotechnology by establishing governance structures able to coordinate interactions of relevant actors.
Shaper-Rinkel 13 analyses future-oriented governance of emerging technologies. She explores the role that different types of FTA played in the development of nanotechnology governance in the USA and in Germany.
In the USA FTA was used to create visionary concepts and to promote co-operation between various actors.
In both countries, public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.
The FTA TOOLS used to develop governance frameworks for nanotechnology in these two countries differ along time.
and governance network-building coupled with avoiding centralised S&t planning. In Germany, FTA is used mainly for addressing the future of existing areas of strength
either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation in order to address grand societal challenges.
and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
and its governance structure by including or excluding certain type of knowledge and expertise. This claim,
13 P. Shaper-Rinkel, The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology, Technol.
Looking at collaboration in the wider context of collaborative governance, Ansell and Gash 76 conclude that collaboration between stakeholders tends to develop
, Collaborative governance in theory and practice, J. Public Adm. Res. Theory 18 (4)( 2008) 543 571.
The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e
) have played in the development of nanotechnology governance. In the US, FTA has been used to create visionary concepts
Especially the inter-organizational setting can be considered a crucial condition for maximizing the impact that participatory FTA can have in the future governance of nanotechnology. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Governance Emerging technologies Key enabling technologies Nanotechnology Public engagement Foresight Technology assessment Responsible research and innovation 1. Introduction As science and technology become more central to economic development,
the question of future-oriented governance of emerging technologies gets raised repeatedly. A decade ago, the question addressed how to maximize the contribution of such technologies to economic innovation with the intention of enhancing competitiveness 1, 2. Today,
to develop governance frameworks and to address national innovation systems. In the case of nanotechnology, a variety of FTA ACTIVITIES have been in use over the last quarter of a century to structure the field itself
and to establish governance structures in the field of nanotechnology. Compared with other countries, the US and Germany started assessing the status and future trends in the area of nanotechnology early on 5,
and howit is governed requires first focusing on the governance processes associated with its development and then recognizing that the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 E-mail address:
The paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis played in the development of nanotechnology governance.
In both countries, the public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.
How are specific governance measures related to FTA and to the establishment of focal organizations? What are the contributions of the distinct future-oriented approaches to the development of nanotechnology governance?
2. Analyzing the role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of nanotechnology 2. 1. Nanotechnology: the field, its definition and its governance The Technical Committee 229 on Nanotechnologies of the International Standardization Organization (ISO) issued a definition of nanotechnology in 2010
which contains the same elements as those used over the last decades: nanotechnologies include understanding and controlling matter
and processes at the nanoscale, where the onset of size-dependent phenomena usually enables novel applications.
although the impact of fta itself on the governance of nanotechnology has not been the subject of analysis. The scope of nanotechnology governance covers both anticipating
which is central to governance. Governance is broader than government covering non-state actors, and is characterized by continuing interactions among network members 15.
Today, future governance is seen as crucial for the development of nanotechnology 16.2.2. Approaching the future of nanotechnology:
the scope of future-oriented technology analysis Several distinct approaches toward anticipating the longer-term implications of nanotechnology have been taken.
commid=381983 2 Nanotechnology and the governance of nanotechnology are intertwined furthermore with the discourse on converging technologies, referring to the synergistic combination of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences (NBIC),
where a similar governance framework as in the case of nanotechnology is discussed 10 (M. Roco, Possibilities for global governance of converging technologies, J. Nanopart.
Despite these different traditions, both countries used FTA to develop governance frameworks for nanotechnology. 3. Future-oriented technology analysis of nanotechnology in the US
. Integrated vision-building and governance network-building in the US At the end of the 1990s, the US science policy community established an organizational structure around nanotechnologies
the new report written a decade later focuses more on governance and on concepts to involve
The report emphasized the concept of anticipatory governance of nanotechnology that was introduced by social scientists at the Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State university.
and participatory governance, and real-time technology assessment 3. The report refers to the previous involvement of a broad variety of stakeholders
The need to increase multi-stakeholder and public participation in nanotechnology governance is stated as one of the main lessons learned after ten years 3. In 2011, the key architect of the National Nanotechnology Initiative
The related future governance will be oriented on a user-centric ecosystem which is expected to become increasingly participatory
The core concept for the future development is innovative and responsible governance of nanotechnology 45, a concept rooted in 5 The NNI itself is not a funding program.
as in the case of emerging technologies, the diverse and dynamic environment enables the actors within the pluralistic system to use FTA to build up governance networks
included prospective studies of long-term opportunities as well as participatory activities such as building networks to access disparate sources of knowledge and to legitimate the governance of nanotechnology.
A concept for future governance of nanotechnology is also not part of the action plan. The work of the Nanokommission is mentioned
and this institutional fragmentation can also be observed with regard to the governance of science, technology and innovation in the field of nanotechnology. 4. Comparing the US and Germany 4. 1. Timing and intervention Between the late 1980s and the late 1990s,
FTA in the governance of nanotechnology started with forecasting activities and expert-driven identification processes in which expertise was limited by involving actors exclusively from government,
the BMBF did not report similar activities. 4. 3. Governance structures Beside many parallel developments in the US and Germany,
such as the late consideration of societal challenges, there are also differences in governance structures. In Germany, disparate sources of knowledge were pooled not
In Germany other ministries and government agencies have their own agendas with regard to the future governance of nanotechnology without being part of a common board where strategies are compared and aligned.
The forward-looking activities of the US nanotechnology initiative have had a major impact on the future orientation within the US political realm with regard to nanotechnology governance
Unlike in the US, the governance network in Germany is centralized around one ministry (the BMBF) lacking a continuously working governance structure to bring together the variety of actors involved in nano-related innovation processes.
either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation to address grand societal challenges.
and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
and its governance structure by including or excluding a certain type of knowledge and expertise.
Coherent and powerful statements of what the future governance of nanotechnology should aim to accomplish can be seen as a precondition that could potentially lead to binding prioritization of the goals to be reached by using nanotechnologies.
The updated nanotechnology vision in the US 3 is envisioning the involvement of a broader range of experts and stakeholders and addresses societal challenges through a sophisticated concept of future nanotechnology governance.
The US nanotechnology governance is oriented conceptually toward responsible research and innovation and broad participation. It has established broad networks with a focal organization as the basis for implementing its strategic vision.
The inter-organizational setting can be considered a crucial condition for maximizing the impact that participatory FTA can have in the future governance of nanotechnology.
an inter-organizational governance framework is crucial to uptake the knowledge as well as the requirements derived from various stakeholders.
Acknowledgements This paper builds on earlier research on the governance of nanotechnology in Germany funded by the German Research Foundation DFG and also on studies for an AIT funded project on the impact of foresight (Sufo Sustainable Foresight.
unifying and transforming tools, AICHE J. 50 (2004) 890 897.10 M. Roco, Possibilities for global governance of converging technologies, J. Nanopart.
F. Jotterand (Ed.),Emerging Conceptual, Ethical and Policy issues in Bionanotechnology, Springer, Netherlands, 2008, pp. 43 63.13 P. Schaper-Rinkel, Governance von Zukunftsversprechen:
Sociology of the Sciences Yearbook, Springer, 2010.15 R. A w. Rhodes, Understanding governance: ten years on, Organ.
Res. 8 (2006) 153.43 D. Barben, E. Fisher, C. Selin, D. H. Guston, Anticipatory governance of nanotechnology:
constructing the public in participatory governance arrangements, Public Underst. Sci. 19 (2010) 403 419. Dr. Petra Schaper-Rinkel, political scientist, is a senior scientist and scientific project manager at the AIT Austrian Institute of technology in Vienna.
Her current research focuses on foresight, governance of emerging technologies, and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
Node of change covered Mini panel co-ordinator Visioning approach 1. Citizens role in innovation governance Anders Jacobi Danish Board of Technology,
new principles organising resource flows, different notions of learning, newworking patterns and differentmodes of democratic governance.
Governance of Innovation: Firms, Clusters and Institutions in a Changing Setting, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2010, pp. 19 32.6 F. Steward, Breaking the boundaries, Transformative Innovation for the Global Good, NESTA, 2008.7
and governance structures 12. For example, universities find grand challenges difficult to use as an organisational principle both because of their interdisciplinary nature
The interdisciplinary nature of challenge-oriented results is difficult for traditional governance structures to absorb.
The paper stresses national governance culture as the most decisive contextual element to be taken into account in the design of policy oriented national FTAS.
and uncertainty-avoidance as the key dimensions of national governance culture and thereby critical for FTA design Rijkens-Klomp and van der Duin take a less interdisciplinary approach,
Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.
Countries'or regions'political culture might be closely related to national governance culture. Havas et al. use governance culture to distinguish between the innovation policies in Western European countries, on the one hand,
and Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) and newly independent states (NIS), on the other hand 3. However, Havas et al. do proceed not further into any systematic characterisation of the two traditions.
and national governance culture as decisive contexts for analysing and using foresight in policy-making. The paper argues that this concept provides a more useful approach to the decisive context of foresight than the size or regional affiliation of a country.
and discussed. 2. National traditions and governance culture as context for foresight In this section, we introduce a conceptual framework of national traditions
and governance culture for analysing foresight and priority setting in science, technology and innovation policies. 2. 1. Sociologists'and anthropologists'perception of culture Cultural differences and styles are very hard to quantify,
we have argued that national governance culture is a more decisive context for analysing and using foresight in policy making.
To qualify the concept of national governance culture, we have suggested drawing on the classical work of Geert Hofstede.
Even between culturally neighbouring countries, such as Denmark and Sweden, large differences exist in governance culture, in addition to differences in industrial structure, academic traditions and so on.
However, there is still much to be understood about national governance cultures'effects on foresight, and there is a need for more systematic research on this topic.
i) policy and governance,(ii) international Industrial r&d,(iii) knowledge society and (iv) environmental sustainability; 5. Positioning the scenario snapshots within the defined framework.
Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises, Futures 36 (2004) 45 65.10 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (3)( 2011. 13 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:
Reflexive governance For Sustainable development, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2006, http://www. eelggarenvironment. com/Bookentry contents. lasso?
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2010) 279 291.4 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:
At the same time, FTA is considered to contribute to enhanced governance modes that improve the performance of innovation systems 41.
when stating that foresight can be seen as a governance process, whereas 43 claim that this happens through shared
and develop new configurations through a multilevel governance approach, as well as further experimentation and learning. Fig. 2 outlines the proposed‘‘renewed''system including the FTA aspects here outlined.
and to develop new configurations through a multilevel governance approach, as well as mutual experimentation and learning. However, in order to validate
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises, in: Paper Prepared for the STRATA ETAN Expert Group action on Mobilising the Regional foresight Potential for an Enlarged European union, 2002.44 C. Shelton, Quantum leaps, Butterworth-Heinemann, Boston, Massachusetts, 1997.45 C. Cagnin,
economy and finance (including its governance; environment (ecological; and politics and public services. Although some issues could be placed in two or even three categories,
Demographicsl S&t policy-governance Labour Geosphere and landscape Law and legislation Life styles families Psychology Finance tax Atmosphere Security Labour leisure Physics Outer space Health
The challenges for local governance in 2015. Available from<http://www. communities. gov. uk/pub/326/Allourfuturestechni calannexandappendices id1165326. pdf>,last accessed 1 Octoobe 2008.
which aim to support the formattio of policy strategies and associated governance models. Among others, he has been involved in the Europeea projects FISTERA and EPIS, both dealing with the future of the information society.
i e. demonstrating new ways of governance and ways to intensify the extent of public input and debate Policy and implementation aspects Policy analysis:
For example many different governance structures were observed: In Ireland, Forfas1 sees itself as the national policy advisory board for enterprise, trade, science, technollog and innovation.
and‘wickedness'of grand challenges poses a fundamental problem for existing governance structures. Historically evolved systems of national and international public administtratio demonstrably have fundamental difficulties in addressing grand challenges that is not the kind of univeers they were designed to handle.
and combination of existing tools and aligning them to governance systems, to address the complexity of the grand challenges.
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovation in organisations and governance.
It is increasingly evident that current governance structurres largely evolved in the 19th century are clearly proving incapable of addressing such issues with resolve or speed.
One response, based on introducing higher levels of flexibility into governance systems, is via a much more systematic embedding of FTA within government.
lessons learned and conclusions are presennte in Section 6. 2. Intangibles Governance, social engagement and foresight are relatively recent subjects of study
As far as governance is concerned conflicts may occur between new democratic practices, technological expertise and scientific freedom.
but also the concepts of governance, macro-coordination and develoopmen of vertical communication channels in the governnmen area return to the forefront.
in a knowledge-based society, democratic governance must ensure that citizens are able to make an informed choice from the options made available to them by responsible scientific and technological progress.
In this context, governance, social engagement and foresiigh can be seen from a common point of view, looking forward to visions of the future and to what must be done to transform those visions into reality,
From this brief introduction about the environment of governance social engagement and foresight, it can be seen that the discussion about intangibles should be focused more on state-of-the-practices than the state-of-the-art.
The diversity of communication channels and the need for effective coordination between these three different levels emphasizes the importance of setting up a well-structured governance body for the whole exercise.
but did not have full governance to deal with all those variables which could impact its present and future.
Activities under the scrutiny of a governance model: built to contribute to the development and validation of the main results of the SMP, with clear attribution of responsibilities.
The governance model was designed to explore the advanttage of top down and bottom up flows.
and all governance levels are to be considered and respected. Methodological approaches are to be consistent with scientific standards to attract participation
the Journal of Future Studies, 1: 5 9. Irwin, A. 2004)‘ Expertise and experience in the governance of science:
'This indicates that China is not moving towards a substitution of centralized reseaarc governance with a fully fledged pluralist system without strong coordinating mechanisms a`la Russia after the Soviet period (Graham and Dezhina 2008.
The second is related to institutiionand capacity-building and governance of the S&t system, and in particular floor funding of academic institutiions Ergas'work
and thus presuppose relatively well-developed and mature S&t institutions, basic capacities and governance mechanisms.
institution-and capacity-building and governance refer to efforts aimed at creating basic foundations for research and innovation.
2. 2 Governance of the S&t system An important element characterizing the governance of China's S&t system throughout the phases identified before is the strong involvement of China's top leaders in S&t decision-making.
for instance‘harmonious society'and‘indigennou innovation',indicating the contributions and frameworks of STI governance with broader policy process.
as the reforms of governance continue to stress the need for articulation of actors'interests, building new constituencies among academics, academic institutions and industry to tap into their interests,
we still find a strong emphasis on grandiose projects, less on the processes and the governance of S&t and reforms of S&t institutions.
issues and recent trends',Governance of Public research: Toward Better Practices, pp. 61 76. OECD: Paris..(2008) OECD‘Reviews of Innovation policy:
Multilevel governance approaches that acknowledge the principle of subsidiarity while ensuring coherence between global, regional (e g.
This is followed by a discusssio (Section 4) of the systemic reorientation of innovattio systems towards grand challenges and the demands put on policy and governance.
Clearly, the eorientation of innovation systems places particular demands on STI policy and the governance of innovation systems.
2010) highlight the need for the creation of more transparent and accountable forms of governance that are better able to anticipate
In this regard, FTA as a tool of governance could have a promising role to play in reorienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges. 5. FTA for orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges Th paper takes FTA to refer to systematic processes
and improve governance, thus increasing trust between policy makers, business and the general public and consequently reducing the number of occasions
By promoting the inclusion of all relevant stakeholders they can facilitate cross-sectoral collaboration between the public and private sectors as well as between various industries, a multilevel governance approach,
and experience but also creativitty These spaces could also be created at different levels of governance (regional, national,
This role could be enabled in a step prior to setting the governance structures and bodies of the instruments to be created.
Such experimental spaces can occupy multiple positions in systems of multi-level governance, i e. FTA can be performed at different levels and in different places,
the FTA PROCESS and its products can mobilise those involved to reassign resources Structuring role of FTA enables definition of governance structures
and allow decisions to be shaped within wider settings through new inclusive and participatory governance approaches. With regards to its capacity-building role FTA can contribute to the articulation of strategic visions that can guide search and selection processes,
New approaches to governance',Futures, 43: 279 91. CEC. 2010)‘ Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social, Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union',SEC (2010) 1161
Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises',Futures, 36:46 65. Hall, B. H. and Rosenberg, N. 2010) Handbook of the Economics of Innovation.
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