Current practices of FTA require transformation through effective embedding of FTA in a user context of governance structures
the institutional context and modes of governance in which FTA is embedded. In order to focus on the organisational and institutional aspects of FTA systems,
and the types of organisational models and governance contexts that make up FTA systems. Section 3 will draw primarily on recent empirical research presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, 1
taking into account the wider institutional setting and co-evolution of different governance modes. Building on three dimensions (transformation types, governance modes,
and organisational models of FTA) a conceptual frame is developed for analysis in the empirical part of this paper. 2. 1 The fast-changing context:
and modes of governance FTA systems form an active part of the institutional context and governance structures managing systemic and structural transformations.
This relationship with the governance context demarcates how FTA systems evolve and drive the anticipatory capabilities in society.
Ko nno la et al. 2009) derive four modes of governance from argumeent that build on cultural theory (Tukker and Butter Figure 1. Identified types of transformations.
Coping with a fast-changing world. 155 2007. Social organisation can be understood in terms of the extent to which an individual is bound in a unit or social group and the degree to
In our analysis these basic‘forces'are transposed to the societal (governance) level, allowing a deeper understanding of how governance exercises influennc in the system.
Two dimensions (rules and group ties) are used as axes to illustrate four approaches2 to social organisation.
Two dimensions, namely‘extent of group ties'and‘extent of influence of external rules'are used to construct a matrix that defines four modes of governance (see Fig. 2 and Table 1). Further to such archetypal modes of governance,
in practice we observe shifts in the governance structures in the course of societal transformations. For instance
transformaation may emerge through proactive coordination that may lead to changes in competition and integration modes of governance.
Alternatively, the governance system may adopt a co-existence mode until abrupt changes such as an economic crisis,
force government to take up new measures in other modes of governance for instance policy measures to incentivise research
FTA systems both affect and are affected by shifts in governance modes. The integration mode is likely to lead to the implementation of normative approaches that support common vision-building and priority setting.
There is an emerging stream of FTA ACTIVITY geared to providing future-oriented knowledge for decision-making on a more continuous Figure 2. Modes of governance (modified from Thompson et al. 1990.
as well as organisations either institutionalised Table 1. Key characteristics of modes of governance Integration mode of governance.
Institutionalised FTA supports the process of defining the vision and the route Co-ordination mode of governance.
Networked FTA Competition mode of governance. Optimising the market conditions. Competing visions and action plans to cope with transformations.
Fragmented FTA Co-existence mode of governance. Reactive wait-and-see until new opportunities. Focus on resilience, not on visions.
However, which of these three basic organisatioona models best fits the requirements is also a matter of the governance mode (co-existence, competition, cooperattio or integration)
organisational model and governance mode need to be compatible with each other. 3. Diversity of FTA systems in practice Against this backdrop,
address the challenge of transformation, FTA organisation and governance modes, with the aim of teasing out the main trends in how FTA is evolving in practice.
is a change in both governance and organisational models. A much higher degree of policy coordination seems to be needed to address societal challennge as well as a much more continuous and‘embedded'approach to FTA.
By looking into the latest developments in how FTA systems understood as combination of governance modes
The analysis identifies the types of transformations addressed, the governance modes in which FTA is embedded and the organisational Table 2. Framework for analysis of FTA systems Dimensions Transformation types Organisational models of FTA Governance modes Sub-categories.
Disruptive. Ongoing processes. Gradual by design. Rapid by design. External services (projects and programmes. Networks. Institutionalisation. Co-existence.
the FTA conferences3 repressen focal points for addressing issues of how FTA is embedded in governance processes,
The analysis of the selected papers on FTA attests to the richness of approaches in relation to different types of transformatiions governance modes
In terms of addressing the governance modes, the papers indicate particular attention to the coordination mode, reflecting the theoretical premises of prevailing foresight practice with its emphasis on systemic aspects
-and supply-side) approaches and the comprehensive analysis of possible measures in view of their combined effects on differren governance modes.
2011) have analysed types of Table 3. Changing rationales for FTA APPROACHES on FTA systems Dimensions Transformation types and consequent challenges Governance modes Organisational models of FTA Traditional
Guiding and/or complementiin competition and integratiio oriented governance. Designing research policy and strategy with broad aim of selecting priorities for research investments and cooperation of R&i actors.
Tiits and Kalvet (2011) learned from recent foresight exercises in Estonia that the Table 4. Diversity of FTA systems in practice Approaches in FTA systems Transformation types Governance modes Organisational models
Emphasis on coordination mode and its interactions with other governance modes Institutionalisation of FTA needs to be combined with network structures to attain:
2012) Focuses on gradual multilevel complex deliberate transformatiions which can be identified with a roadmapping exercise Identification of suitable policy instruments and/or strategies for various governance modes External service (projects and programmes),
2012) Addresses spatial dimension in gradual transformation, combining both reactive and deliberate approaches in scenario work that integrate spatial dimensions of urban planning Elements of different modes of governance addressed.
and gradual transformations Searches balance between coordinaatio and integration modes of governance Institutionalised forms of FTA need to be interconnected,
and in particular policy strategies Various governance modes are addressed in examination of instituutiona change for uptake of foresight results in design of systemic innovation policy Discusses how the findings of foresight project are embedded in institutional structures and policy design 160.
and the coordination mode of governance prevail in RECENT FTA despite the considerable richness of foci on different types of transformations and methodologgica choices and organisational setups for FTA.
forms and types of transformations, modes of governance and organisational models. A number of crosscutting observations can be drawn on the current evolution of FTA, on emerging requirements and possible responses to them. 3. 2. 1 Observation 1:
and challenges can be addressed by combinations of governance contexts and appropriate organisational models of FTA. 3. 2. 2 Observation 2:
and maintaining the necessary‘strategic intelligence'to ensure the strategic governance of technology and society is not an easy task.
Exploring the balance between these three forms of FTA ACTIVITIES in empirical terms helps to improve our understanndin of how effectively different combinations of activities work in their respective decision-making context and governance modes.
However, the coordination mode of governance that seems to be on rise in Europe see for instance the debates on European Innovation Partnerships
and Joint Programming tends to favour such flexible arrangements for realizing FTA. 4. Conclusions This paper has explored FTA responses to a highly dynamic environment where disruptive events highlight the fragility of governance systems.
co-evolving with policy action in four archetypal modes of governance: integration, coordination, competition and co-existence.
which reflect the differren mixes of transformations, governance and organisatioona modes. The complementarity between models of FTA is apparent with service providers
T.,Carrillo Hermosilla, J.,Loikkanen, T. and van der Have, R. 2009) Governance of energy system transition:
Tukker, A. and Butter, M. 2007)‘ Governance of sustainable transitions: about the 4 (0) ways to change the world',Journal of Cleaner Production, 15:94 103.
and the uncertainties involved in future global governance regimes. Foresight offers a means to explore these dimensions of science.
but also one characterised by exciting advances in science English declines as the lingua franca of science Triumph of globalism Reinvigorated global governance structures Active global citizenry that is science-savvy Global science
and social sciences Science supplying national needs General backlash against globalism Global governance of science at the intergoverrnmen level is fractured Regional
and effective governance, ICSU is recognised as a key player in international science and has been able to attract new funding.
Innovation policy roadmapping. 189 Eerola, A. and Loikkanen, T. 2009) Governance and Research of Nordic Energy system Transition-Summary Report of the Gorenest Project, VTT Research Notes 2505.
As current governance systems are incapable of tackling current and future, interconnected, global challennge (Ko nno la et al. 2012),
between national research systems, horizonttall between disciplines and policy areas, vertically across governance levels (from local to global)
For instance, at the level of international research infrastructures, issues like prioritisation criteria, funding, governance, evaluation and impact assessment are being discussed in Europe (European commission 2010a).
and innovation communities (KICS) of the European Institute for Innovation and Technology (EIT) also face issues of governance, prioritisaatio and evaluation.
The articulation of thematic priorities for transnational research and innovation co-operation, e g. from EU level, raises issues related to their coherence with the priorities and needs of lower levels of governance, particularly in terms of
In more general terms, the OECD (2003) has called for horizontal coherence as a general governance objective ensuring that individual objectives
and publish shared priorities on a transnatiiona programme level Mapping of foresight exercises at all governance levels Establishment of a UEF,
Kaiser, R. and Prange, H. 2004)‘ Managing diversity in a system of multilevel governance: The open method of co-ordination in innovation policy',Journal of European Public policy, 11: 249 66.
OECD. 2003)‘ Policy coherence',Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate, GOV/PUMA (2003) 4. Paris:
e)- governance and (e)- social cohesion. defence and security It was agreed then that in each area JRC-IPTS experts would analyse about 20 25 forward-looking reports which had been published recently by international organizations or the business sector;
and the role of EU in relation to global governance. Table 2 provides an example of such a crosscutting challenge that synthesizes issues from different thematic areas.
global governance. natural capital. society. economy. By the end of the workshop, a workable agreement had been reached on the definition of the following three overarcchin challenges:.
Fuerth, L. S. 2009)‘ Foresight and anticipatory governance',Foresight, 11:14 32. Georghiou, L. and Cassingena Harper, J. 2011)‘ From priority-setting to articulation of demand:
towards a multi-polar world and world governance. towards a new universalism (political-cultural transition.
For this, we need first of all to look at the Fraunhofer Society itself. 3. The Fraunhofer approach 3. 1 Strategic R&d planning within the Fraunhofer governance model Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA APPROACHES have been used within corporate strategic R&d planning at Fraunhofer for several years.
Fraunhofer has decentralised a highly governance model. Individual institutes may set their strategic and scientific focus very autonomously,
and financial system (includes a commitment to good governance, development, and poverty reduction, both nationally and internationally) Target 13 Address special needs of least developed countries (includes tariff
protection from consequences Increasing conflicts within states Global governance will be sought Table 3. Proposals and teams Round 1 Challenge Project ideas Selected projects Teams involved
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