it received a substantial funding of 95 Million Euro by the Dutch government, as well as its official name:
The third level relates to the societal level, where governments, NGO's and other societal actors articulate the social, political and economic aspects of the new technological field.
Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements Reports that translate technological developments into market potentials Articles addressing the market potentials of technological developments Press releases of individual firms Articles that address the developments
and potentials of applications Articles in scientific journals Review articles that give an overview of the developments in the field Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements
governments and research institutes already have high stakes in the future application. To illustrate, it is estimated that governments
and large firms invested over $2 billion in nanotechnology worldwide in 2002 13. No single definition can be given for nanotechnology,
First, the Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering in the UK have incorporated these issues into their study (commissioned by the UK government,
Regional governments play a clear role in setting territorial strategies, which take into consideration local interests
A strong government, backed by a wide spectrum of the electorate, is formed to implement effective policies against the economic and environmental crisis. Regional
Suggested strategies for Scenario C. The back to basics scenario is dominated by a high level of social frustration due to a longstanding economic recession and the lack of an adequate response by previous governments.
Foresight is a place where governments can and will try to stabilise, naturalise their roles, institutions jostle for positions,
''Regarding technology assessment, it is interesting to note that it‘‘originally emerged with the aim of contributing to the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches of government,
and deployed with significant participation of national governments for dcustomerst in politics like parliaments or administrations.
the role of governments or politics as important players in the innovation process has changed. First there is a significant shift away from a direct governmental participation in the innovation process towards a concentration of national governments on the shaping of framework conditions for innovation.
This is due to many reasons: Globalisation has altered the roles and influence of national policies and industries, political paradigms have changed, EU legislation and international competition leave less room for direct governmental activities in many technological fields.
They argue that, in addition to governments firms should also take a share of the responsibility for educating society
business government and elsewhere, is already possible but limited by human and search engine factors. Data mining is far from a new idea, the possibilities
and how this affects the decisions of engineers, businesses and governments. It investigates how researchers,
businesses and governments derive their agendas from their collectively created images of a promising technology
Researchers, firms and governments have to make decisions about future products in future markets, about things which,
governments tend to follow the choices of other governments. In most OECD countries, for instance, nanotechnology is listed now as top priority;
referring to the efforts other governments have planned (Berube 2006. 5. Conclusion Foresight exercises can be seen as formal articulations of possible futures,
inform and coordinate efforts in research, firms and government. These overviews allowed us to draw lessons for foresight.
Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Dutch Scientific Council for Government Policy for their financial support and Marjolein van Asselt for her important comments.
Slow technologies and government intervention: Energy efficiency in industrial process technologies. Technovation 26, no. 9: 1029 44.
civil society and governments the truth is that all three sectors have to advance more or less at the same speed and in the same direction.
In this context, the kind of dialogue required across a business network demands the inclusiiv participation of governments and overall societies,
However, both governments and firms should take part of the responsibility for educating society and promoting active citizen participation in decision-making, through inclusive dialogue,
and innovation services to enterprises, governments, and other clients. Arnold, Clark, and Jávorka (2010,7) assert that RTOS play important roles in the European innovation system and in de facto European research area policies,
we observe that the Japanese government did cancel solar energy subsidies in 2006. After 2006, DWPI patents resume growth,
For instance, does need a particular call for government funding or standard setting? Do any requisite developments call for partnering among certain organisations (and, if so, which?
which started in 2001 and 2006 (Government of Japan, 2001,2006), strategic prioritization was the basic principle in drawing up related policies except for those related to basic research.
In the Fourth Basic Plan (Government of Japan 2011) the focus on a problem-solving approach becomes more apparent:
Government of Japan (2001), The 2nd Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.
Government of Japan (2006), The 3rd Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.
Government of Japan (2011), The 4th Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.
governments provide a foundation and framework for research, set focus areas, and thus ultimately shape the future.
and guidelines that are set at higher levels of the government institutions they work in. If those priorities change either in the light of foresight results
or through unrelated shifts (e g. change of government after an election) then belief networks of research policy makers can be affected.
since government institutions need to be careful about raising expectations that may remain unfulfilled. On a positive note
where national governments formulate strategic responses that take into account the existing and anticipated developments in the sciences
Twelve roundtable discussions were facilitated with senior representation from a cross-section of policy areas, mainly from government ministries and agencies (approximately 90 participants in total.
policy strategy. 5 has had your organisation contact with other governments internationally in discussing these drivers and trends?
technology and innovation (S&t&i) priorities have become an integral part of government policy making in almost all developed countries,
The natural resources sector includes numerous players (federal and regional government agencies, public and private companies and industrial enterprises, R&d centres, environment protection organisations,
B Direct impact (high) This means that the project results were used directly for decision-making at government level for the development of national strategic documents.
Also, the results of FS1 and FS2 that showed the crucial support measures for the government (FS1)
He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues. Ozcan Saritas (Phd) is a Senior Research fellow at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR
Manage. 24 (8)( 2012) 735 751.15 J. Calof, J. E. Smith, Critical success factors for government-led foresight, Sci.
it appears that if the Dutch government aims at a transition towards more sustainable generation,
Kristian Borch b, Ted Fuller c a SVR, Research centre of the Flemish Government, Boudewijnlaan 30, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium b Department of Management Engineering
and governments deal with international scientific developments in different ways through the policies they pursue 14.
a tool of growing importance to policy analysts in government and industry, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.
and to promote cooperation between and among agencies, departments of the federal government, academia, and stakeholders.
and to promote cooperation between and among agencies, departments of the federal government, academia, and other stakeholders.
Governance is broader than government covering non-state actors, and is characterized by continuing interactions among network members 15.
Governments that established nanotechnology funding programs later, such as Denmark, used national level technology foresight processes to prepare
In contrast to the US, the German government has launched several technology foresight processes in the last decade 33,34.
and Development in The next Decade 1. Vision building at this stage was accompanied by early cooperation and coordination between and among agencies and departments of the federal government.
Over 150 participants and contributors from government, science, and industry were involved in developing the vision.
For its part, the government's role is to improve and accelerate the uptake of technology through funding, education and awareness-raising.
‘National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) Leading to a New Industrial revolution',should approximately double the Federal government's annual investment in nanoscience,
formal government planning as a main reason for this. In the case of nanotechnology, there was no centralized and formal planning process,
and science. 7 These early network activities did not involve other ministries or government agencies, as opposed to the US case.
In 2006, the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) established the Nanokommission a stakeholder commission on nanotechnologies as part of the federal government's high-tech strategy.
a women's association and a medical practitioners'organization, trade unions, churches, academia, industry and government bodies (such as federal ministries and agencies as well as ministries on the regional and state level) discussed their positions 51.
In 2007, the Nano-Initiative Action Plan 2010 emerged as an important part of the high-tech strategy of the German government.
rather than future strategies) without mentioning past or future cooperation and collaboration among ministries and agencies of the federal government 52.
One of the recommendations published in the Nanokommission's final report in 2011 is that the German federal government should establish a national cross-departmental internet platform providing information on developments and activities in the field of nanotechnologies 51.
which expertise was limited by involving actors exclusively from government, science, and industry. Later processes included expertise from a broader range of disciplines
and ministries of the federal government and to pool the knowledge gained in stakeholders processes conducted beyond the BMBF.
In Germany other ministries and government agencies have their own agendas with regard to the future governance of nanotechnology without being part of a common board where strategies are compared and aligned.
and have influenced also greatly stakeholders and researchers outside the government. The vision-building process of 2010 served as an instrument to pool and coordinate FTA ACTIVITIES among government departments, agencies, and research communities.
Washington. 46 M. C. Roco, Environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology, How the U s. Government is Dealing with the Immediate and Long-term issues of this New technology, Environmental science & Technology, 2005.
Drucksache 15/2713,2004, p. 232 S, Berlin. 50 Nanokommission of the German Federal government, in: W.-M. Catenhusen, A. Grobe (Eds.
Report and Recommendations of the German Federal government's Nanokommission for 2008,2008. 51 Nanokommission of the German Federal government, Responsible use of nanotechnologies:
As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
government actions have been fundamentally gradualist in their approach since the1980s. Largely conceived in the light of market failure arguments that sat comfortably with the neoliberal economic paradigm,
whether the luxury of this accumulation can survive the cold economic winds that are causing many European Governments to cut spending
Similar reactions have followed epidemics (the institution of government horizon scanning in the UK was at least in part a reaction to the BSE epidemic.
He is active in policy advice to governments and business and as Vice-president for Research and Innovation at the University of Manchester.
The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Danish research 2015 process, from 2008,
The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Research2015 process, from 2008. In both cases, the impacts have been significant and largely measurable in new legislation and budget allocations.
such as not only government but also influential stakeholder groupings and experts. Societies with lower power distance might be more likely favour interaction (citizen consultation) based foresight methodologies
Second, the strong traditions for central negotiation at the industrial level in Denmark between employer and employee associations for instance about productivity enhancing means make it more appropriate and convenient for the Danish government to include the industrial partners in the process of discussing
In two prospective plans (Perspektivplan I and II) from 1971 and 1974, the government analysed social trends and developments 15 and 20 years ahead for the public and private sectors, respectively.
and this gave such analyses a rather negative reputation among economists and planners in government.
A technology foresight programme was established with the centre-left government's 2000 business development strategy 30. The strategy contains the following statement:‘.
‘the Government will take the initiative to implement a project on technology foresight in Denmark. The aim is to increase knowledge
'1 Hence, technology foresight was seen to be part of the government's business policy and not, in particular, part of science policy,
Following the general elections and the change of Government in November 2001, the ministries were reorganised,
Also following the change in Government, the budget for the technology foresight programme was reduced to DKK 18 million (ca. EUR 2. 4 million).
First, the section describes the Danish government's 2005 Globalisation Strategy. The Globalisation Strategy aimed at a very broad range of policy areas.
Research2015 aimed to set priorities for the government's strategic research programme or at least, parts of this programme. 4. 1. The government's Globalisation Strategy In the spring of 2005,
the government launched a process that was to meet the Grand challenge of increasing globalisation. The aim was to meet this challenge by developing a vision
The work was set up in the wake of the government programme‘‘New Goals, ''which the reelected government presented after the general election in February 2005.
The government established an internal Committee of Ministers and a broad-based Council for Globalisation,
which was meant to advise the Committee Ministers on this strategy. The Globalisation Council consisted of 26 members,
labour market organisations, universities and the government. The Prime minister was Chairman of both the Committee of Ministers and the Council for Globalisation,
The latter also held the position as Vice-Prime minister in the twopaart coalition government. In addition the Minister of finance and the Minister for Science, Technology and Innovation participated.
a discussion paper was prepared that contained the government's overall objectives for the theme and key data and prerequisites.
In light of the Globalisation Council's work, in April 2006, the government presented an overall strategy for Denmark in the global economy:‘
including both the three parties behind the government and two opposition parties. 4. 2. The Research2015 project One of the suggested initiatives for the Globalisation Strategy concerned a‘better basis for prioritising,
Strategy for Denmark in the Global economy Summary, The Danish Government, Copenhagen, 2006.32 OECD-DASTI Horizon scan, 2007.33 Teknologisk Institut, Evaluering af Forsk2015.
BX Delft, The netherlands 1. Introduction Government organisations design policies for a future full of uncertainties. Policy-makers who focus on long-term policy issues can use foresight methods during strategic policy-making processes to arrive at a better understanding of the future and its uncertainties
Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions
and government organisations learn to anticipate by developing more robust policies, etc. 2 5. We examine
and other organisations directly linked to the Dutch government and involved in long-term thinking and strategy processes.
because in both analyses, our aim was to ascertain how futures studies methods are being used in practice by governments.
However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.
because some of them believe that the government can approach the future in a predictive manner,
such as how to cooperate extensively with other (government and non-government) organisations and how to reposition the organisation in a fast changing society.
When we compare these motives to the foresight functions proposed by Da Costa et al. 25,
while (local and national) governments are organised often along these thematic pillars. This makes it difficult for policy-makers from different government organisations to relate the results of studies of the future to decision-making and policy development,
because they are bound to their own organisation. On several occasions, interviewees at the local level noted that,
At the national level, government commitment was emphasised also, albeit with an interesting nuance when it comes to the interaction between the Ministry and Parliament:
government commitment is not the only success factor. Indeed, many foresight studies were set in motion by politicians,
and, finally, there are many different local and national government organisations, each with there own mandate, nature, structure, problems and opportunities.
Hazeu, E. van der Linde, P. Rademaker, On the use of futures research for organizational change in Dutch government ministries, Futures 12 (2010) 23 36.25 O. Da
and a regulatory framework co-designed between governments, industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape
and was critical to support the decision making process. 3. 1. An example from the Brazilian State of Parana 3. 1. 1. Rationale The Government of the State of Parana'was selected
Overall, the implementation of government policies should take place through transparent and efficient public management. It should,
Hence, the lack of involvement of government representatives into the debate due to the bureaucracy in place, did not allow the consolidation of the conversational environment created
The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size.‘
from an initially government-internal planning program to an externally supported innovation program. This program also integrated external parties starting in 2007 to a new innovation program that is facilitated
Leadership WINN operated as part of a government organization. As a result it was subject to considerable political scrutiny.
For instance, interviewees stated that the government and therefore Rijkswaterstaat as its agency was interested in unique onetime innovations
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
a consortium of industry partners and the Interdiscipliinar Institute for Broadband Technology founded by the Flemish government.
horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries. It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal
and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:
Participation and involvement of societal and government stakeholders, not only during the collecctio of data, but also to guide the interpretation
) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.
and government were carried usually out by special units and/or councils and agencies. Most of these scans targeted a wide variety of users (policy-makers
a network of Forsociiet partners was established including some externna organisations that had shown interest in the concept of government-initiated horizon scanning.
A Table 2. Subcategories Society S&t Economy and finance Environment (ecological) Politics, government, public services Social values S&t reflection Market Hydrosphere Legitimacy-democracy
there is a large effort to spread good practiic to other parts of government and society. In The netherlands the aim is to contribute to the future orientaatio of policies towards sustainability,
a government departmeent reflecting on its strategic direction or policy. Part of the HSC engagement with the client will be an analysis of scan data
In this way, the future-oriented approach is disseminated through the whole of the government system, as well as the scientific communnit and society.
The focus of the UK scan is on‘public policy'(not explicitly government policy, although governmeen is intended the main client).
which the government will be held 3. Identification problems and opportunities---4. Evaluation and weighing of problems and opportunities List P---List O---1. Literature study 2. Consultation of national international experts 6. Formation of clusters
It operatte under the government's chief scientific adviser. Its goals are to: inform departmental and cross-departmental decisiionmaking;
support horizon scanning carried out by others insiid government; and identify the implications of Emerging s&t and enable others to act on them.
and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting. COS had the task of facilitating cross-departmental foresight
In 2007 The netherlands government decided to abandon the system of‘sector councils 'and to create new provisions within all ministries (so-called knowledge chambers).
2006), also due to more general problems around the interaction of scientific advice, government and society (De Wit, 2005) it is clear that horizon scanning is seen as a valued but also vulnerable learning process (DEFRA,
and its strong networking capacity in the UK government and futuure community, which is supported strongly by the so-called FAN club that the HSC established to suppoor horizon scanning activities in government and elsewhere.
Here also, the processes involve many people and institutions that are influenced certainly by the future-oriented project work
Embeddedness In the UK the horizon scan is embedded in the strateegi function of government and closely connected to the national foresight programme.
UK government, 2006, Horizon scanning and Futures Team, Sciennc Economics and Statistics DG, 2006. Looking back at looking forwards, Next steps for Horizon scanning and Futurres DEFRA 2006.
Horizon scanning in Government. Zurich: ETH Centre for Security Studies. Available from<http://www. isn. ethz. ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Critical success factors for government-led foresight Jonathan Calof and Jack E Smith This paper reports on an integrated
once launched by a government, can be successful. The study was performed by a team of researchers in Canada in the period 2005 2007.
The interview results indicate that success is defined ultimately as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy,
once launched by a government, can be successful and why. In this approoach we are not attempting to question the degree to which the prevailing political-foundational conteex is supportive,
it is insufficient as an indicator of success. Eight factors were identified as the critical keys to success in government-led foresight programs:
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.
which enable foresight to be launched successful once by government, we are less clear about the necessary preconditions for initiating foresight that can be positioned for success. Thus,
plus three government agencies (VTT, TEKES, and SITRA) and the Helsiink University of Technology) in Finland, Foresiigh in the UK, the Denmark National Technology Board,
He has had over 25 years of experience of federal government policy technology and innovation program development.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
>last accessed 3 february 2010 Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 34 been a serious attempt to understand its effects in aggregate.
and practical implementation Involvement of political actors in the process Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 35 asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,
Relationship to national government? Resourcing? Social vs. S&t focus? What, in your opinion, are some of the most successsfu assessments of recent foresight exercises?
Finnsight 2015 (encompassing a mix of Nokia plus three government agencies (VTT, TEKES and SITRA) and Helsinki University of Technologgy in Finland UK Foresight, third phase 2004 2008;
synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
What motivated your government's foresight effoort in the first place?(What were the specific needs? What were the challenges?
did need you to build a business case for foresiigh in your government? How was done that?
Is there a foresight support agency (or departmeent in your government? are centralized the foresight activities or decentrallized (e g. within a specific ministry or done individually in each agency with no central suppoor or supported by some central foresight body or outside research institute or both) In your opinion, has done your country anything unique that is making foresight work in your conteex
and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
Governments (both national and subnatiional and government agencies were the main sponsors of foresight exercises accounting for 95%of the sample.
In Finland, the Parliamenntar Committee on the Future is supported by a national fund for R&d (SITRA-government investtment augmented by a significant Nokia share sale in the 1990s) as well as by government S&t focused agencies such as the TEKES, VTT
ensures an effecctiv link to current government actions. A key requirement is to develop foresight capacity amongst senior decision-makers
so that they can integrate the important tools of technology foresiigh into advice to government. The UK seems to have developed this capacity the most where the science advisor has repeatedly been able to engaag key ministries as joint sponsors and receptoor for the results.
the foresiigh capacity and stakeholder organizations need Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 38 to be linked with
and scenario approaches used by their host department to help the government itself establish its longer term strategies.
In all cases, the new function was bringing much needed methodologies that had previously not been exploited fully within the mainstream departments of the government.
As present (early 2010) there are some encouraging signs of a revival of interest by the Canadian government in a modest S&t foresight initiative so,
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 39 Compared to most of the other nations represennte in our study,
would have required the senior client as well as the necessary stature to engage other cross-government senior clients,
With a change in government and a progressive demotion of the NSA function as the new government became more confident in its abilities,
limited direct evidence Since 2004, with two successive minority governments, the policy agenda has been clearly dominated by short-term priorities (sometimes only five years) thus rendering foresight,
evident but not strong enough to counter inside government weaknesses The various foresight initiatives all involved private sector leaders
since there are barriers for government to receive private funds other than taxes. Essentially, the culture of government often tends to discourage full partnerships and strong connections due to mutual differences in operating norms Novel methodologies:
evident but not distinctly recognized The foresight program was able to test at least five novel approaches
and train over 300 senior government staff and managers in foresight methods so that at least a portion of the policy advisory system has had some exposure/familiarity to these methods Communications strategy:
and current government procedures call for such resources to either be managed from the centre (prime minister's office) or more formally according to departmental needs.
and the change in government led to a more tightly controlled system for strategic messaging and press relations Stakeholder integration:
somewhat, but limited by government process controls For the most part, key stakeholders at the senior staff and professional levels of organizations and industrial domains affected by the foresight were able to be involved in the process,
discernible impact on government policy has been low and the program as initially formulated did not survive Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
and Public policy February 2010 40 is done not, then the exercise is of minimal or no value.
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