''1 1 1. Evaluating FTA in the light of recent events This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers.
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville
§This paper is based on interviews with nine leading FTA researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on October 16 17,2008.
and Technology analysis & Strategic management 8. The large number of papers submitted in 2008 is an indication both of the central role the FTA Conference has come to play, principally for European researchers but also increasingly for researchers from around the world,
A substantial number of new researchers have emerged apparently recognising that FTA provides an umbrella for the activities they are interested in.
Hence it is not just a matter of new researchers entering FTA, as much as researchers in various other fields identifying with
and migrating to the FTA field. In this scenario, several new applications of FTA have been identified 9. It is important to highlight that an effective Conference can provide a‘showcase'of the field,
Sandy Thomas Foresight, UK Government office for Science. References 1 L. Fitton, Cassandra: Cursed Prophetess, 1998, accessed at http://www. arthistory. sbc. edu/imageswomen/papers/fittoncassandra/intro. html. 2 For example V. van Rij, Joint horizon scanning:
while some researchers combine established FTA METHODS, others bring in insights from new disciplines or techniques that originated in other disciplines.
ISSN 1463-6689 jforesight j PAGE 279 Vicente Carabias is a Senior Scientist in‘‘Foresight and Sustainable development''and EU Contact Point at the Institute of Sustainable development,
His professional challenge is connecting science and policy. On a broad range of regional and EU projects, involving foresight and integrated assessment,
depending on the scientific discipline within which it is used. Building on the work of the German Risk Commission (Risk Commission 2003), in the context of this paper risk is understood, in its economic/toxicological/engineering sciences definition,
Planners and researchers know some of these nodes, some nodes are anticipated but not exactly known,
The Dynamics of Science and Research in Contemporary Societies, Sage Publications, London. Gordon, T. J.,Glenn, J. C. and Jakil, A. 2005),‘Frontiers of future research:
concepts and methods'',Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Volume 9: Philosophy of Technology and Engineering sciences, Elsevier, New york, NY, pp. 1103-45.
Hansson, S. O. 1996),‘Decision making under great uncertainty'',Philosophy of Science, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 369-86.
Complexity science approaches to the application foresight Averil Horton Abstract Purpose This paper aims to present an exploration of recent work in complexity theory to explain why
Findings Complexity science demonstrates that disruptive events do need not an associated trigger as they are a normal part of a complex system.
Foresight may be either an art or a science, Bell (2003), and may or may not be, a discipline,
Human Science for a New Era, Transaction Publishers, Piscataway, NJ. Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
www. bis. gov. uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizonscanning-centre/futuresinpolicyguidance. pdf (accessed 6 june 2012. Byrne, D. 1998), Complexity theory and the Social sciences:
science coming of age or science growing old?''''Computers and Chemistry, Vol. 25, pp. 341-8. Miller, M. 2011),‘Being without existing:
the futures community at a turning point? A comment on Jay Ogilvy's‘Facing the fold'''Foresight, Vol. 13 No. 4, pp. 24-34.
and Ville Lauttama ki is a Researcher, both at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku, Turku, Finland. low-carbon society by the year 2050.
These included researchers, officials and representatives of various business areas, as well as many NGOS. The project team from FFRC consisted of five researchers, with experience both in methodologies applied in the exercise and in climate and energy issues.
Methodology The scenario process was carried out as a concise Delphi process which consisted of two rounds of web questionnaires and of two futures workshops,
NGOS, energy business and researchers of various fields, as well as representatives from various business areas. The results of the first questionnaire were sent in advance to those who had confirmed their participation to the workshop.
Lauttama ki works as a Researcher at the Finland futures research centre of the University of Turku. He has worked on a number of futures-oriented research and development projects with several Finnish ministries and security organisations and in several EU-funded research projects.
Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms.
and routines of researchers and has shaped expectations of a new audience. 3 A second example of emerging irreversibilities are the collective roadmaps,
i) the expectations that guide the search activities of scientists and firms, and (ii) the processes of agenda building 5,
Since all involved actors scientists, firms, policy makers have to act under the condition of insufficient information,
which made the visualisation of the atomic region more and more accessible for scientists. One of the first landmarks is the Nobel prize discovery of a new carbon molecule containing sixty carbon atoms (C60) in the shape of a ball in 1985 (also called a bucky ball) 15.
or six hydrogen atoms in line. 6 IBM researchers (G. Binnig and H. Rohrer) received the Nobel prize for their discovery of the scanning tunneling microscope (STM).
but also immediate concerns that are based on today's science, such as toxicological effects of nanoparticles 13.
Scientists observe hurdles for further development of a promising application (guided by the expectations) and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.
a Sociology of Prospective Techno-Science, Ashgate Publishing company, London, 2000, pp. 43 64.6 M. Callon, Technological conception and adoption network:
From rhetorics to social reality, Social Studies of Science 2 (1998) 221 254.10 H. Van Lente.
Eburon, 1993.11 B. Latour, Science in Action, Open University Press, Milton Keynes, 1987.12 OECD, Technology and the economy:
. Lieber, Carbon nanotube-based nonvolatile random access memory for molecular computing, Science 289 (2000) 94 97.17 T. W. Odom, J.-l. Huang, P
assembly of one-dimensional nanostructures into functional networks, Science 291 (2001) 630 633.27 P. Ball, Cylinders make circuits spontaneously, Nature News Service (2002)( January.
He holds MS degrees in Applied Physics with a specialisation in Materials Science, and Business administration with a specialisation in Small Business and Entrepreneurship, both from the University of Groningen, The netherlands.
The oblivion of future studies in the urban planning field was denounced several years ago by practitioners and researchers (Isserman, 1985;
In 2010 she started to work as a researcher in the field of futures studies, focusing on the development of an innovative foresight approach to identify major trends
''As a comprehensive term, FTA is anchored firmly‘‘in the relation between science and technology on the one hand,
and social needs on the other''(Cagnin and Keenan, 2008), acknowledging thus the co-evolution of science and technology (S&t) together with society in their approach and work.
and management and organisation science. They believe‘‘t hese will provide a variety of interpretative lenses that offer the possibility to expand our conceptualisation of FTA,
Unlike other disciplines, such as economics and business science, scenario planning is not very common In law. This kind of narrative exercise tends not to be very appealing to the legal mind,
At a general level, the application of fta to legal research constitutes an appeal to the creativity of the researcher and to the realisation of the full potential of his or her academic freedom.
Such methods will potentially enable researchers and legislators to identify future regulatory gaps and needs.
In effect, the application of this particular ICT-based FTA instrument to Law will enable the development of innovative models for researchers,
An eventual systematic application of fta to Law runs the risk of blurring the boundaries between Science and Law,
Here we might encounter an interesting (and ultimately) dangerous mix between Law and Science, with the crafting of odd notions as‘‘science-based law''or‘‘legally-based science''!
''As mentioned previously, it is important to keep Law as Law, that is, a human activity of judgements, interpretations, opinions and values,
In this respect, future work should be conducted regarding the boundaries between Science and Law, as a way to render Law a future-oriented activity that uses scientific methods without transforming itself into one of them. 5. Conclusions This paper has proposed a new methodological approach to Law,
For the distinction between technology assessment, foresight and technology forecasting made by the European Science and Technology observatory Network (ESTO), see Rader (2001).
and research policy cases within the European commission (EC), identified‘‘a potential gap between the contributions of researchers
''and that‘‘specific initiatives are needed to shape the collaboration between science and policy''.''As a proposed solution, De Smedt argued that‘‘f urther initiatives on IA tools should
therefore include a joint collaboration between researchers and policymakers to develop a shared understanding of what constitutes a satisfactory agreement,
Rader, M. 2001),‘Monitoring of technology assessment activities'',report by the European Science and Technology observatory Network, Seville.
which connects the ongoing basic research with the visions communicated either by the scientist themselves or by the media.
Science and technology roadmapping; Technology assessment; Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA.
interactive and communicative process with the aim to contribute to the public and political opinion forming on science and technology related societal aspects 1 like exploitation of potential, dealing with secondary effects,
scientists and industry representatives that nanotechnology may or will contribute to economic prosperity and sustainable development (for an up-to-date and comprehensive overview see Ref. 3). On the other hand,
When scientists, politicians, journalists or dpeople in the streetst are discussing nanotechnology, they all have their own ideas and assumptions, interpretations and examples, scientific approaches and experiences in the back of their head.
at present and in the future researchers, developers and users are faced with strategic decisions on the continuation of their efforts again and again.
4. 1. Science and technology roadmapping a brief introduction A standard definition of roadmap or droadmappingt does not exist.
To our knowledge, the term dscience roadmapt has been proposed first by Robert Galvin in a 1998 article in Science 9. Kostoff and Schaller without any explicit justification dreinteggrated both types.
a bs and T (science and technology, T. F.)roadmap provides a consensus view or vision of the future S and T landscape available to decision makers.
and participate in the development of science and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,
and to adapt the general concept of science and technology roadmapping to include it as a precursor into the TA process for selected applications of nanotechnology.
Enable and teach interdisciplinary communication which for nanotechnology researchers is of special importance;!Discover new research options and alternative pathways;!
science and technology roadmaps in the domain of nanomaterials will be developed. In the first phase, an international working group integrating roadmap developers
and institutes (representing basic research on nanotechnology related phenomena, material researchers and developers, systems engineering, toxicology of nanoscopic structures,
systems analysis and project management) to participate in an experiment to develop two science roadmaps using different approaches:
The science-driven approach is starting with the current research activities, its results and plans for their continuation and is aiming at opening
Some reflections on the role that science roadmapping can play for research organisations how the experiences with technology roadmapping in companies or industries can be adapted for our T. Fleischer et al./
We propose an adaptation of the concept of science roadmapping and its application to selected segments of the overall field of nanotechnology.
some scientists are restrained somewhat about their participation in a roadmapping process. Some fear to disclose too much sensitive knowledge to potential competitors,
. so will some scientists. But who better than scientists to experiment with an experiment that can strengthen sciences'support
and accelerate its generation of knowledgeq 9. References 1 D. Bu tschi, R. Carius, M. Decker, S. Gram, A. Grunwald, P. Machleidt, S. Steyaert, R
Science, interaction, and communication, in: M. Decker, M. Ladikas (Eds. Bridges Between Science, Society and Policy.
Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha
, Science and technology roadmaps, IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. 48 (2)( 2001) 132 143.7 O. Da Costa,
M. Boden, Y. Punie, M. Zappacosta, Science and technology roadmapping: from industry to public policy, IPTS Report 73 (2003.
Change 71 (1 2)( 2004) 1 3. 9 R. Galvin, Science roadmaps, Science 280 (5365)( 1998) 803.10 A. Grunwald, Technikfolgenabscha tzung eine
he worked as researcher at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Stuttgart. Between 1997 and 2002 he was a member of the scientific staff of the Europa ische Akademie Gmbh where he managed several TA-projects
driven by the confluence of nanotechnology, biotechnology and materials science (Linstone 2011a, 2011b. It is these fundamental changes that give rise to the main challenges of today'sworld.
which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. He derives three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations
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Although many researchers believe that methodologically sound research requires that they stick to well-known and frequently used historical data sets,
Notes on contributor Ilkka Tuomi is Chief Scientist at Meaning Processing Ltd. He has a Phd in adult education (knowledge management) and MSC in theoretical physics, both from University of Helsinki.
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Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20, no. 2: 130 41. Louie, A. H. 2010. Robert Rosen's anticipatory systems.
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Much depends on the conflict between modernity, with its strong attachment to science, and post-modernity with its questioning of much that modernity accepts.
In the present context, with its emphasis on science and technology, is embedded foresight in diminuendo in its corresponding social and commercial expectations?
In many branches of science, the future is a‘grey hole'in which some of the matter is quantitative and some qualitative.
For example, engineers often create a working artefact before its theoretical underpinning (science) is understood fully: that is simply an example of a known unknown in science.
Scenarios are used often to present the quantitative and qualitative output of FTA. Bearing in mind that a scenario is the skeleton of a play
Casti (2010) is only the most recent person to question the frequent assumption that science
Transformation of quantitative data from science, technology and pseudo-science into information then plays a role, in conjunction with thesteepv constituents,
and internal consistency is often characterised by a significant separation of the phenomenon from the researcher,
since the researcher uses a priori constructs or models to specify the information to be collected process is highly efficient
the broad range of sciences and technologies that any FTA has to be able to cope with:
and their meaning at scales and with methods that are unimaginable at the present time except to a few scientists.
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon Foresight methodologies and their implementation in science, technology and social fields.
Copernicus Books, Springer Science+Business Media. Cooke, R. M. 1991. Experts in uncertainty: Opinion and subjective probability in science.
Oxford: Oxford university Press. Funtowicz, S. O, . and J. R. Ravetz. 1990. Uncertainty and quality in science for policy, theory and decision library, Series A:
Philosophy and methodology of the social sciences. Dordrecht, The netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Kurzweil, R. 2005. The singularity is near:
The art and science of anticipating the future. Newyork: Routledge. M'Pherson, P. K. 1974.
Yet, anticipaatio in science and technology is limited not to foresight, but occurs in many more informal ways.
which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. Finally, three generic lessons from the sociology of expectations are derived,
and discusses the implications for formal foresight exercises of science and technology. The central question of this paper is whether and howforesight exercises,
which studies the informal production and circulation of expectations in science and technology. These two reviews allow us to reflect in Section 4 on the implications for the practice
This approach studies how expectations in science and technology are structured, how they grow, gain dramatic attention or quietly disappear,
It investigates how researchers, businesses and governments derive their agendas from their collectively created images of a promising technology
it creates an obligation for the researchers: they should be able to meet this specification within two years.
or researchers themselves would have chosen. Participants will reason in terms of‘not missing the boat, but the‘boat'only exists due to the collective decision not to miss it.
Second, expectations provide direction to the search processes of science and technology (Rip and Kemp 1998.
'Other researchers argue that not only the pace, but also the content of research can be influenced by expectations.
Researchers, firms and governments have to make decisions about future products in future markets, about things which,
In addition, sociologiist of science and technology point to the dynamic nature of science and technology:
to be contrasted with the numerous informal articulations of futures that circulate in science and technology.
and philosophy and has published widely on the dynamics of expectations in science and technology. His research interests concern how emerging technologies such as nanotechnology
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These different pieces of insight are matched finally through an interactive process that brings the social researchers from Philips Design and the technologists from Philips Research together with the business managers from all the product divisions of the company.
and Phd graduates. 3. Roadmaps consist of representations of interconnected nodes of major changes and events in some selected fields of the external environment, such as science, technology, and markets.
In 2005, he was a visiting researcher at the Manchester Business school, University of Manchester. His main research fields are foresight methodologies and strategic management of technology and innovation.
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and is now a senior advisor of STI (Science, Technology and Innovation policy and strategy at CGEE.
Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 208 21. Berg, P m. Leinonen, V. Leivo, and J. Pihlajamaa. 2002.
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and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.
Computational and Information sciences (CIS), Engineering sciences (ES), Electronics and Photonics (EP), Materials Science and Technology (MST),
and Pulsed Power Sciences (PP). The LDRD process occurs annually at Sandia, starting early each spring.
Year Year Year Year Year Year PIA PI PI Author Source Text Text Text Text Abstract Text a PI=principal investigator.
The two largest perceived overlaps were between CIS and the Engineering sciences (ES) and Materials Science and Technology (MST) areas,
it is nonetheless an effective means of guiding the science and technology enterprise in the shorter term.
Vis. 2001 (2001) 23 30.5 K. W. Boyack, B. N. Wylie, G. S. Davidson, Domain visualization using Vxinsight for science and technology management, J. Am.
A gene expression map for Caenorhabditis elegans, Science 293 (2001) 2087 2092.11 K. W. Boyack, Mapping knowledge domains:
Nabeel Rahal is a business intelligence researcher and analyst in the Business Development and Corporate Partnerships Center at Sandia National Laboratories.
and experimenter), and the wider social settings (e g. geographical, organisational, political, economic, and ethical). In our model, the knowledge space that analyses these wider socio-technical constellations is the strategy space.
Service Science and Business network: strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.
In order to create the Service Science and Business (SSB) network, foresight and organisational learning methods were integrated in a workshop process.
During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.
potential collaborators such as universities, funding agencies and the societal actors in the field of service science (Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
It roadmapped the potential for a novel development trajectory in an RTO (VTT) and it enhanced the organisational capacities of adopting a novel service science approach.
and enhanced capacities for the creation of new knowledge in an emerging service science network. It also endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research in Finland and in Europe.
to establish and strengthen VTT's organisational identity as a novel‘player'in service science. Thus, it fostered the formation of an anticipatory culture,
Notes on contributors Toni Ahlqvist is a senior scientist at VTT. Currently, he works as a postdoctoral researcher at the Academy of Finland.
His current research focusses on socio-spatial transformations induced by science, technology, and innovation policies. He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,
and socio-technical change. Minna Halonen is a research scientist at VTT. Her research focusses on foresight and socio-technical change
Annele Eerola is a principal scientist at VTT. Her research focusses on the links between foresight knowledge, corporate strategy, and innovation policy.
Sirkku Kivisaari works as a senior scientist at VTT. Her educational background is in business management.
Johanna Kohl is a senior scientist and a team leader in Foresight and Socio-Technical change team at VTT.
Nina Wessberg is a senior scientist in Foresight and Socio-Technical change team at VTT. Her current research interests are especially in sustainable energy solutions at the society.
Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 178 90. Ahola, J.,T. Ahlqvist, M. Ermes, J. Myllyoja,
International Journal of Quality and Service Sciences 2, no. 1: 128 45. Heracleous, L, . and C. D. Jacobs. 2008.
Science and technology roadmaps. IEEETRANSACTIONS on Engineeringmanagement 48, nos. 1 2: 132 43. Könnölä, T.,T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari,
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