Synopsis: Area: Area:

and economic factors Identification of solutions to problematic areas. need-driven) Understanding the interaction between technology and the society.

Mcluhan Tetrad Model) Define priority areas for technology policy Survey national technological development Stimulate development in priority areas of technology development and research;

thus stimulate the development in these areas Better understanding the interaction among technologies and realize gains resulting from this interaction Allocate funding for research

Another difference was in the area of participants. The number of participants engaged in the foresiigh exercises was variable, with no discernable pattern or trend evident.

which align with some of the areas where policy will be required,(e g. health technology, agricultural innovation,

and Keenan (2006), research in this area is limited: Pleas from sponsors of FTA ACTIVITIES for better accounts of demonstrable impacts are as old as FTA itself.

Yet, little work has been done in this area, with most accounts of impacts confiine to individual case study descriptions.

biosecurity, and security in general, is also typically related to critical infrastructuure particularly in the area of public health.

Areas suggested include: societal productivity; security from natural and man-made disasters; providing sustenance for an ageing population;

and has held academic posts in Canberra and Melbourne in the S&t policy area since then. A major activity has been his association with the APEC Center for Technology foresight since its inception in 1998.

Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.

A key area of interest for the project is how technoloogie can converge to contribute to the overall capabilities for more effective applications in biosecurrit and EID management in the four designated life cycle domains.

a range of tools to enhance capabiliit in these areas needs to be developed specificaall for the Asia-pacific region,

while networking and technology transfer in certain areas are a viable option. This project is a contribution to the better understanndin of the provision of accelerated technologicca responses to combating EID and biosecurity in the APEC region and of the role of S&t in providiin those responses through the concept of convergiin technologies.

Science itself will also be a source of new challenges but also opportunities through its contribution to technologgica change in areas such as:

A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation of meeting the needs of policy-makers to identify areas to intervene in by formulating appropriate policy.

which can be tackled through policies that span areas of administrative responsibility. In general, horizon scanning activities for the shaping of systemic policies involve three key questions:

but also the concepts of governance, macro-coordination and develoopmen of vertical communication channels in the governnmen area return to the forefront.

human resources and infrastructure to handle complex thematic debates in several areas of interest, planning for small and very large events such as the last three national S&t conferences organized by the CGEE

since been enmeshed with policies in other areas, reducing the professional autonomy of the scientific community in setting priorities (Ziman 1994).

and by priority-setting clearly geared towards national defenserellate projects in strategically targeted areas, like the hydrogen bomb,

indigenous innovation (zizhu chuangxin), leapfrogging in key areas (zhongdian kuayue), supporting economic and social development (zhicheng fazhan), leading the future (yinling weilai).

So-called mega-engineering and mega-science projects are aimed at‘leapfrogging'in key areas, while key technology programs play the role of supporting economic development,

Support technology transfer to rural areas and promote development of agriculture based on S&t achievements State Key and New Product Program 1988 Support new high-tech products for key industries 9th Five-year Plan National Program

and diffusiio of agricultural technologies 11th Five-Year Plan Mega-science Program 2006 Promote four top scientific areas Mega-engineering Projects 2006 Promote technology

However, the selection of areas is guided by their ability to meet national strategic needs (in agriculture

and four priority areas, thus representing an ambition to square‘national needs'with‘science dynamics'.

In some cases they may even be encouraged by the government, letting experts point to problem areas

with greater amounts of probing and experimenttatio in areas that are potentially relevant to grand challenges.

This should be accommodated in selectiin priority areas for research as well as in setting strategic research agendas. Finally, the role of FTA in creating spaces for market formation,

and impacts of grand challenges as well as their possible solutions Informing role of FTA can be embedded within EU instruments in the steps of challenge/problem identificatiion prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research,

when defining priority areas of common interest and in setting strategic research agendas among different actors Capacity building role of FTA supports collective learning and knowledge creation Guide direction of search and selection FTA tends to lead to articulation

and prioritisation of associated themes and areas for research Capacity building role of FTA supports diverse expectations to be framed

The first ones were created in the areas of climate change, energy and informmatio and communications technologies. In 2011, the JRC-IPTS supported the European Institute of technology to identify potential priority areas for new KICS from 2013.

The proposals are based on a web 2. 0 consultation of the research communities in Europe and beyond,

2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.

What areas and types of transformations will require anticipatory action? And what kinds of requirements for FTA result from these?.

The distinction between disrupptiv and recognised grand challenges referred to in the European Science Foundation report (European Science Foundation 2010) highlights the fact that areas of disruptiiv grand challenges can be exogenous

Recognised grand challenge areas are‘grand'in the sense that they are instantly recognisable as representing a major aspect of human

Local, regional and national FTA networks, cutting across different policy areas, can support an appropriate level of policy coordination to anticipate

The creation of UNESCO meant that there was now an organisation with a specific remit to link with governments in the international science area.

In the area of climate change the International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) was established also by the WMO

has led also to a new global approach to research in many areas. Truly global science is an evolving

it commissioned a meta-analysis of the results of several existing national foresight exercises with the aim of identifying future priority areas for international science cooperation (Teixera et al. 2002.

This exercise reinforced the continued importance of ICSU's historical areas of interest, mainly focused around the environment,

It also highligghte a number of areas, such as cognitive neuroscience and nanoscience, in which the role of ICSU was less obvious

These areas were considdere to still be valid in 2009 and are being carried mostly over into the new strategic plan (2012 7). Therefore,

How this will evolve in areas such as the relationship between knowledge-based and faith-based societies could have implications for the scientific process especially in the international science area.

Even within cultures the way science will go about handling ethical issues and addressing controversial areas of science in areas of high public interest will be significant for the relationship between science and society.

Science education and skills: The traditional path of science education could be challenged by the role of new organisations, business and communication technologies.

The career path for young researchers is another area where a number of options could develop

and deem investments in this area to be unnecessary. The third driver is emission trading, which is currently starting to have an effect on companies.

Development and Deployment co-operation (including currency issues) Lack of networks/no European structures to coordinate co-operation in programme area Geographic distance Policy to achieve national priorities through internal capacity

in order to broaden the knowledge base in three areas: urban megatrends, urban networks and connectiivity and the socio-ecological sustainability of city systems.

Horizontal coordinnatio can be enhanced by foresight by encouraging the sharing of research interests among research teams in different areas and disciplines.

Alternatively, multidiscipplinar stakeholder groups can be formed to work together towards common research agendas in different sub-areas,

foresiigh seems to hold the promise of facilitating the implementtatio of different functions of transnational research programming way beyond the identification of emerging issues, priority areas and relevant stakeholders.

Decomposition was facilitated by the framework for research sub-areas and by treating research areas and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could assess with an internet-based decision support tool.

consisting of four research areas and 23 sub-areas. Stakeholder participation was also based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process. 4. 1. 3 Flexible and responsive management to accommoodat with stakeholder expectations.

34 Furthermoore foresight plays particularly a relevant role in learning on future developments in the areas where there is little

It has potential to also identify additional research areas and is linked directly to the Management Board. 32.

if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches

The raw material may be different observations about topics such as scientiifi and technological developments within various areas, and may be obtained from research papers, laboratory results, dissemination about new theories, experiments, prototypes etc.

and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).

Step 1 Selection of the broader area where emerging issues will be examined. Step 2 Clustering of weak signals.

The results of the scanning can also be a starting point for taking into account the areas of unknown unknowns by spotting gaps in the scan picture

and by linking unconneccte areas. That is about raising the awareness of non-knowledge (areas beyond

what we know we do not know). Taking into account the plurality of perspectives on non-knowledge can serve as a basis on

T. Ko nno la et al. addressed with systemic policies that span several areas of administrative responsibility.

and policy implications. 3. 1 Identification of Issues BEPA and JRC-IPTS initiated the analysis in six broad areas following the structure of previous work that had been delivered to BEPA by other EC services.

JRC-IPTS and BEPA refined these areas through close interaction to accommodate a more comprehensive analysis across all economic sectors and responsibilities of BEPA.

The final six areas analysed were:.demography, migration and health. economy, trade and financial flows. environment, energy, climate change and agriculture. research, innovation and (e)- education.

e)- governance and (e)- social cohesion. defence and security It was agreed then that in each area JRC-IPTS experts would analyse about 20 25 forward-looking reports which had been published recently by international organizations or the business sector;

covered more than one of six areas being analysed; exhibited global scope; and had been Figure 1. Timeline

and wild cards as well as related policy recommendatioons These reviews resulted in the jointly authored area descriptions and the identification of 370 codified and traceable issues.

issues in a given area (there were 42 90 issues in the areas. 3. 3. 1 Mean-oriented analysis. Mean-oriented analysis helped identify issues that were considered relevant, novel and probable by the majority respondents,

For an example, see Table 1 which shows seven issues out of 42 in the area of defence and security.

and the challenges were required to contain issues from at least two of the six areas that were analysed.

made it possible to group Table 1. Core/borderline status of selected issues in area of defence

They also said that they received useful feedback from participants represenntin different policy areas because this helped them to see challenges from alternative viewpoints

>accessed 16 september 2011) Area No. Issue code Key words from issue description (optional) Save natural resources (water,

or 44%,of the world's population lives in areas of high water stress. There is a risk of global water bankruptcy due to humanity's consistent underpricing of water and its consequent waste and overuse.

'which combined issues from at least two areas in the case study) may have to be described at a more abstract

they may have policy implications in several areas of administrative responsibility. But if the policy-makers in these areas are autonomous,

or represent different‘administrative silos, 'it may be difficult to shape broad policies that they would be committed fully to,

2. Effie Amanatidou, Anette Braun, Ville Brummer and Mika Mannermaa supported JRC-IPTS in reviewing four out of the six areas. 3. During the International Seville Conference

and show impacts in all areas of the lives of human beings. But in these and many other cases (Popcorn 1993,1999) of megatrend discussions, the definition of the megatrends was explained not

Some researchers from different areas made use of these approaches and set‘megatrends'as a framework or a driver for their scenarios (Kolz et al. 2012 forthcoming.

and strategic areas of excellence is the identification of specific strategic future topics at the corporate level,

The idea was to define pragmatic areas in order to foster this cooperation. Global or grand challenges were regarded

VTT distributes basic funding to their different areas in order to support crossknowwledg cluster projects. For strategic directions, VTT defines some broad themes of research,

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