Synopsis: Context: Context:


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) The analytical components that we address should be considered in the context of performing FTA (Porter 2010)

and available human knowledge of the particular innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 846 Y. Guo et al. system, within the context of a more general innovation context (i e. the socioeconomic context in

Within the context of ongoing empirical analyses of nanotechnology(‘nano')R&d, we focus here on how nanomaterials are being used to enhance the performance of solar cells,

Institutional effects in Chinese context. The Journal of Technology transfer 33, no. 6: 619 30. Markard, J. 2006.


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it aims to provide an overview of future impacts on our society in broader contexts. Foresight activities in Japan have changed also their objectives.


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and similar strategy processes into research policy making and research infrastructure creation. 2. Lessons from earlier work The challenge of transferring foresight results into strategic planning is well known in a business context.

and B corporate dialogues initiated by businesses to communicate in the context of supplier networks and with society as a whole.

but in this paper we restrict ourselves to their discussion in the context of research policy making.

An efficient transfer of foresight results has to be secured proactively to grasp the opportunity to consciously shape future research in a competitive and dynamic environment The context is dynamic

reservations and sensitivities but need to do so without assuming these can necessarily be influenced The process of beliefs being updated that is captured by the model of Bayesian learning applies in several contexts during a strategic dialogue.

In particular, research policy makers operate in the context of political priorities and guidelines that are set at higher levels of the government institutions they work in.

and requirements of stakeholders and research areas there are recurring patterns in the context of research policy making that can be structured in a seven-step framework shown in Figure 1 and described in the following sections. 4. 1 Step 1:

Furthermore, relevant activities in the field are mapped, such as pilot projects, existing networks and stakeholders in an international context.

and international context to identify best practice and allow a better positioning in view of a competitive global environment.

but it is a first cut of describing the wide-ranging and fuzzy topic area provided by foresight results with a tight map that can be used as guide and context for the following steps. 4. 5 Step 5:

and demonstrate the power of strategic dialogues as an instrument for a broad range of subject areas in the context of national research policy making.

The resulting outline of a possible new type of innovation cluster has proved to be stable throughout further discussions in various policymaking contexts


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It aims to present a recent Irish case study that identified grand challenges in the national context, with their implications for research and innovation.

However, another factor has emerged in the European context, which has had an influence on the research and innovation agenda:

context and methodology 3. 1 Introduction to the case study analysis The presentation and analysis of the case study below is based on my role as part of the research

and results described in the case study. 3. 2 Scope and context of the exercise In the second half of 2010,

the second phase was designed to engage with key stakeholders in Ireland to explore their significance and potential implications for the national context.

6 Opportunities that this presents PAGE 32 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 1. validation of the trends/drivers in national context;

the potential impact they might have on The irish national context over the coming ten to 15 years,

and the national context could be cast as (grand challenges for Ireland, which could inform the work of the Research prioritisation Steering Group.

B the challenge has a clear Irish national context; and B the challenge has potential for a set of research implications or the potential for applications of research results.

The following structure was used to link the national context, the global drivers and the challenges:

Ireland has/is/needs (national context) but is challenged by/with/to (global drivers). How can Ireland/Can Ireland (the challenge?

from drivers and trends to grand challenges 4. 1 Catalogue of global drivers and trends from the national context The third level catalogue is a substantial volume that analyses global trends and drivers from a‘‘national

The national context for each driver is developed then and a series of potential research implications added particularly responding to challenges

The results provide an interesting interpretation of grand challenges for the national context. Some of the challenges constructed through the methodology are aligned well with the larger themes discussed within Europe during recent years.

In some cases, the diagnosis of the grand challenge in The irish context was more straightforward than the construction of a set of possible responses from the research and innovation system.

The small country context was an important dimension throughout the exercise and in constructing grand challenges.

In the context of several European initiatives to promote approaches to dealing with grand challenges, this article introduces a country level case study using a foresight approach to look at the implications of global drivers and trends for Ireland,

and trends with national context and insights. The method described in this paper is but one example of how work on grand challenges could be refined

and transpose them to the national context. One potential disadvantage of the latter approach is that it may limit discussions and neglect potentially important national RTDI issues.

Part of the value of foresight in further work on RTDI policy in national contexts is to provide forward-looking assessments that are bottom-up,

and meaning of grand challenges for individual countries. 5. 1 Scale the European versus the small country context European-scale discourse can sometimes unwittingly neglect the specificities of national contexts especially the smaller country contexts.

For research and innovation policy, the implications of grand challenges may be quite different in smaller country contexts particularly those that are on the periphery of Europe.

In the context of grand challenges, there is an important, ongoing role for FTA in critically evaluating continued support for the allocation of resources within the research and innovation system,


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updating the Union's approach in the context of the Lisbon strategy'',COM (2003) 112, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004a),‘Science and technology, the key to Europe's future guidelines for future European union


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The context and importance of competitive intelligence is based partly on the resource-based theory, which is one of the theories most integrated into current management thinking

The difference in technology options or prospects may be derived from the different context of energy use


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Sciencedirect Technological forecasting & Social Change In this context, when analysing the potential of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to assist societies, decision-makers and businesses to tackle fundamental, disruptive transformations, in general,

In this context, FTA can contribute not only to the steering of innovation systems, but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to fundamental changes.

which are fit for purpose and context, and which enable the building of trust through inclusiveness and transparency in processes,

their context: the issues to be tackled; the main objectives; the time horizon to be considered; the desire of their sponsors/clients;

we don't know to a sufficient extent what combination of methods/tools works best in a particular context.

disregarding the analytical tasks and the context in which these methods are applied). Also, when evaluating an FTA project,

costs and benefits of certain methods (their‘fit'to the context), on the one hand, and their actual conduct (methodological rigour, efficiency, transparency,‘fairness',representation, etc.),

a) gradual integration in contexts where convergence of QL and QT methods seems promising, (b) use of new disciplines entering FTA to exchange practices and increase synergies,(c) support of mutual understanding by clarifying strengths and weaknesses of QL and QT methods,(d) sharing

which best fit each context. Gao et al. 7 proposes an approach to enable technology managers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology.

In this context, the proposed model focuses on devising and assessing patent-based TLC indicators using a Nearest Neighbour Classifier,

In this context they claim that Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) is a methodology for analysing dynamic and complex systems and supporting long-term decision-making under uncertainty through computational experiments.

In this context, scenarios are seen as a tool for inspiring and orienting innovation systems. Therefore, scenarios stimulate future-oriented thinking,

In this context, Georghiou and Harper 3 provide an account of the implications for the practice of FTA in periods of instability

In this context, while there is as yet no clear methodological answer to the identification issue there has been some institutionalised responses and new organisational models of FTA,


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In the context of qualitative and quantitative techniques especially the marrying of quantitative modelling and foresight seems to be unexplored rather.

Below we sketch a possible agenda to overcome the main short-term barriers regarding methods selection and misconceptions. 5. 1. 1. Methods selection The selection of methods in FTA remains largely a context-driven issue,

'and only limited attempts12 to better clarify the relation between context, content and approach of an FTA project 68 70.

thus also decreasing the risk of stakeholders dominating the FTA PROCESS. 14 The importance of this in the context of this paper lies in keeping a balance in participation of stakeholders

these methodological and evaluation guidelines should explicitly account for the wide range of context-dependent choices,

and the development of frameworks that support the selection and implementation of an appropriate combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools in a given context, can enhance shared knowledge,

In this context, combining methodological approaches creates opportunities to complement the weaknesses inherent to the use of one single approach with strengths of other approaches.

which tools fit best which contexts). On the other hand, the main barrier to integration appears to be the lack of communication


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Most authors agree that it is impossible to define dinnovationt in a context-free manner,

if we restrict our analysis to dtechnological innovationt (our present context). I want to advance the following arguments favoring an evolutionary approach to define innovation

but by shifting the context and timing of their expression within the developmental sequence of an organism.

The same statement is true in a technological context if we substitute the words dgenetic underpinningst by building blocks T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1143 (following John Holland's 14 original


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and Analysis can be utilized successfully in the context of adaptive policy-making. The iterative approach for designing robust adaptive policies helps to identify


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and successfully employed in the context of EMA 7, 13 15. In this paper, we argue that by using models differently,

In the context of this paper we used the uncertainties (Table 6) as attributes. As class we used the terminal value for the fraction of fossil fuel-based generation.

The prime example being the role of uncertainty in relation to models used in the context of climate change debates.


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Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change

However, the explicit and direct uses of scenarios in predefined decision-making contexts are just part of a broader social process 5. Also important indirect and diffuse links exist between developing

and analyzed in their context as part of the Cost Action A22 network. 1 In doing so,

In the context of this paper, we will argue that this process of reflexive inquiry will provide the basis for creating new insights

The generic methodological requirement from this perspective is an explicit account of the construction of time within the context of the study at hand.

Using inspirational scenarios (in this context, one could label them as simple in form but representing extreme uncertainties) can contribute strongly to triggering feelings of surprise and discovery.

Particular choices and uses of techniques will be influenced by the context in which applications are made. Contextual features will include, among other things, the morphology or physiology of the domain, the purpose and theoretical premises of the study,

Based on our reflexive inquiry used to analyze scenario exercises in their context we can then attribute the most characteristic mode of thinking. 4 Innovation is not only about invention, creation,


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In the context of the US Nanotechnology Initiative, four generations of products were envisioned: the first generation includes passive nanostructures (nanoparticles,

a nano-specific organizational context was established not that could serve as an umbrella organization to promote cooperation among agencies


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to avoid the exclusive interpretation of weak signals only in the context of the existing structures.


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As noted in the context of previous FTA conferences 8 the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name

Articulation is of course within the context of a defined phenomenon which is analysed then typically through scenario approaches.


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and topics, hailing from many different contexts and academic disciplines. The selection of papers presented in this Special issue all share the aim of enhancing the usefulness of FTA

a) One set seeks to understand the context in which FTA is used currently, on the grounds that such understanding might help to improve the impact of fta through better design.

Towards this end the authors advocate FTA designs that are tailored better to the context. Both papers unpack the widely accepted notion that‘‘context matters''by exploring more deeply

what are the relevant context-dimensions to be considered when tailoring FTA PROCESSES. Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen delve into the national policy context for FTA by drawing on insights from sociology and anthropology.

The paper stresses national governance culture as the most decisive contextual element to be taken into account in the design of policy oriented national FTAS.

Inspired by the classical work of the Dutch psychologist and anthropologist Geert Hofstede they identify power-distance

and Ko nno la, can also be allocated to category (a). This paper suggests that endogenous improvement to FTA PROCESSES is about tailoring Foresight design to the specific applied context.

On the one hand the authors explore the use of FTA in the context innovation networks and innovation management.

Given this murky context for structuring conversations and research agendas it is little wonder that at times the foresight community expressed concerns,

and Foresight practitioners to ongoing demands for studies that address our continuously changing complex emergent context.

Indeed it is this paradoxical‘‘short-termism''of FTA its capacity to meet pressing needs that may be most symptomatic of a context that is rich not only on the practical side but also the theoretical.


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Context matters. The fact that context matters leads to the other issue that this paper originates from

namely, the context to which foresight processes are to be adapted. In a discussion of the use of the concept of systems thinking in foresight, Saritas distinguishes between external and internal context 6. The external context is the set of STEEPV factors (Social, Technological, Economical, Environment, Political

and Values) that affect the content of a foresight exercise. The internal context relates to the structures and behaviours of the organisation or system in

which a foresight exercise is organised and carried out. This organisation or system includes all parties and institutions (e g. administrative system and political system) that are involved in the performance of a foresight process and implementation of the results.

This paper focuses on internal context. There is no doubt that each foresight exercise must be adapted narrowly to its actual context.

Nevertheless, both practitioners who are carrying out foresight processes and academics who are studying foresight processes need to simplify Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Available online 22 january 2014 Keywords: Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.

power distance and uncertainty avoidance, are useful in the characterisation of the context in which national foresight exercises are carried out.

All rights reserved. the real world through different characterisations and typologies of both foresight projects and their contexts.

The literature has suggested several simplified contexts for foresight. Some of the literature has suggested that a decisive context for national foresight exercises relates to the size of the country.

The seminal book Foresight in Science by Irvine and Martin analysed processes in France, West germany, the United states and Japan

The chapters in the handbook explicitly consider the variety of approaches and contexts within each region,

The decisive context in Keenan and Popper's work is differences in political tradition: established democracies (as found in Northwest Europe and North america),

and national governance culture as decisive contexts for analysing and using foresight in policy-making. The paper argues that this concept provides a more useful approach to the decisive context of foresight than the size or regional affiliation of a country.

Hence, the aim of this paper is to contribute, in general, to the discussion of national (or political, governing,

and discussed. 2. National traditions and governance culture as context for foresight In this section, we introduce a conceptual framework of national traditions

Organisational culture is shared the perception of daily practices within a specific organisational context 13,15. In contrast, national culture relates to people who are within a certain national context.

P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 6 One of the most comprehensive and acknowledged studies of national styles in management, decision making

and acting within a national context. However, according to Hofstede, organisational behaviour is supposed only to have a small impact on national culture. 2. 2. Hofstede's dimensions of national culture Hofstede takes a bipolar and multidimensional approach to the measurement of national culture.

In their context, the term‘‘regional''refers to geographical clusters of countries 11. Countries are clustered into 6 regions:

political and sociocultural contexts that might differ from region to region. Keenan and Popper focus on foresight as a political instrument,

sociocultural traditions of power distance and uncertainty avoidance than foresight traditions in neighbouring countries. 3. The Danish context in relation to foresight The intention of this section is to sketch elements of Danish‘‘style

Thus, in Danish political contexts, participatory and consensus elements have, most likely, more appeal to policy makers than systematic and analytical elements.

But this context has changed during the recent decade. Based on the Danish Globalisation Strategy from 2005, public expenditures on R&d have increased.

this context has changed during recent decades with increased national R&d budgets and the establishment of a strategic research council.

This implementation came in the form of political negotiations in the context of the budget bill for 2009,2010 and 2011.

That Research2015's effect on the fiscal act can be verified may be unique in an international context.

In the Danish context a good decision is a decision on which everybody (or at least the key stakeholders) agrees.

Context matters. Instead of using country size or a country's regional affiliation (such as Western europe or Asia),

we have argued that national governance culture is a more decisive context for analysing and using foresight in policy making.

and reflects the practice of foresight in different contexts. We have shown an improved framework for comparing


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and experiences of local and national Dutch policymakker in applying foresight methods within the context of strategic policy processes.

each in the context of the development of a strategic environment plan (see 16, 17), that was developed for the first and second Limburg environment plan (covering a long term vision

One of the policy-makers said that‘‘(f) uture studies should match the biological rhythm of strategic policy processes in local and regional policy contexts''.

and that it can also be translated into a meaningful analysis within a strategic context 29 31.


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that extend beyond regional and national boundaries 1. In this context, any deployment of future oriented technology analysis (FTA) must be able to take into account trans-border, often global considerations.

This paper addresses FTA and in particular foresight design and management in an international context. The aim is to draw lessons for international foresight processes on the basis of a specific international foresight project on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems.

and conceptualises design and managerial issues particularly relevant in the international context. Four principles for global foresight design and management are identified.

At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context

examining system properties in the international context in which the exercise takes place supports the development of a common understanding of different, even diverging, viewpoints.

In this context it is necessary, the authors argue, to enable a systematic analysis of how different (weak signals refer to one another

In this context, the partner meetings were vital to adapt the process to the evolving client's needs and partners'expectations,

From the outset the initial design was geared towards taking into account the specificity of context and intentions when identifying guiding questions (i e. intended impacts and objectives), determining participants (i e. type and level of stakeholders'participation),

Sustainable Manufacturing, 2010.34 D. Klimkeit, Organizational context and collaboration on international projects: the case of a professional service firm, International Journal of Project Management 31 (2013) 366 377.


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Furthermore, expectations of outcomes and impacts tend to be context-dependent, and vary from concerns with the take-up of FTA knowledge in policy and decision processes, through to organisational vision-building,

and expected impacts can somehow be related to different contexts and conditions. The first paper from Eriksson and Weber, presents the methodological concept of Adaptive foresight.

and goal attainment levels. 3. FTA on specific issues Two themes of the 2006 FTA International Seminar put FTA into contexts.

The two issues are FTA in a business context and FTA on Higher education. The objective of the first was to collect knowledge,

Given the complexity of the context, it is crucial to support any reform by systematic analyses and vision-building exercises.

and fine-tuning FTA ACTIVITIES to fit particular context and clients. The challenge remains to have FTA ACTIVITIES more closely integrated within the policy-making process.


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This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.

and their importance is ever increasing in the more general context of what Cagnin et al. 6 refer to as‘Grand Societal Challenges'.

In the opportunity identification and idea generation phases, issues such as the‘functional fixation'of users to their current reality and the difficulty for users to break loose from their own use context are mentioned 19

It seeks to understand the complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple, realistic contexts, building on Foresight theory and practice, traditional user research,

They represent two different approaches for going beyond the‘here and now'in the context of innovation research. 3. Illustrations from two empirical case-studies 3. 1. Study 1:

The cultural probing method allows researchers to gather subjective information from the users in an everyday context.

and have internet access in the future by pasting green and red stickers on pictures of different contexts-of-use (see Fig. 1 on the left).

and context. 3. 2. 2. Results 3. 2. 2. 1. Phase 1. The main aspects and trends mentioned by the experts in phase 1 in their vision on future TV experiences

and to empower them to reflect on possible and preferable future developments in the context of TV experiences.

and could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.

Living Labs 32 are systemic policy instruments that facilitate user-driven and social innovation in a natural, more ecologically valid research context, reflecting real life situations and conditions.


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In this context, systems which are able to measure the performance of a firm (performance measurement systems

In this context, the proposed system aimed to become an important strategic tool for monitoring the effectiveness of public management. 3. 1. 2. Description The first case aimed to assess the efficiency of the Brazilian State of Parana in sharing

In this context, the proposed system was implemented to support a rethinking of the institution, its values and its development into a desired future,

In such contexts nonprofit measures are key to assess the success of any given action,

In this context, the inclusion of forecasting and technology assessment features would allow further experimentation (e g. modelling) in relation to the possible pathways actors can pursue both individually and collectively.


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1) How is futures research related to the context of‘open innovation'in general, and to‘innovation networks'in particular?(

In this context, the application of futures research methods can serve various goals such as testing strategies, or identifying new business fields or new policy issues.

The contexts of cases usually differ to some extent. Thus, the generalizability is increased substantially when arriving at common conclusions for the cases.

Leadership had the tasks of (1) managing the program in this political context, (2) establishing a common understanding of innovation,‘openness'and involved risks,

Fakulta t fu r Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Rheinisch-Westfa lische Technische Hochschule, Aachen, 2004p.409.9 In the context of innovation networks, the allocation of two aspects of the strategist role

a conceptual model of context, antecedents, and outcomes, Academy of Management Review 21 (1996) 1143 1191.34 W. Qualls, R. W. Olshavsky, R. E. Michaels, Shortening of the PIC an empirical test


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