Consensus

Consensus (132)
Consensus diagram (5)
Strong consensus (4)

Synopsis: Discussion: Consensus: Consensus:

the purpose of the analysis (awareness raising, envisioning, consensus building, corporate technology planning, etc; the reliability of source information;

Important among the concerns expressed were avoidance of reaching consensus too quickly and constraining the development of emerging technologies,

The general consensus in the session was that FTA is a driver and an instrument for social change and as such will require high quality evaluation and at the same time within its own constructs,

the aim is to negotiate consensus on risks and opportunities or at least achieve transparency about conflicting viewpoints,

and 1980s were influenced strongly by the linear idea that the consensus achieved in Delphi could serve as a forecast and thus as a foundation for taking preparatory actions to exploit emerging technologies.

Subsequently, forms of Delphi have been developed that do not strive to achieve consensus on future forecasts,

when workshop participants are feared to have a (too) high degree of initial consensus (e g.,the only thing we need to get innovation going is lower taxes;

revealing conflicting as well as consensus areas. Delphi-based foresight exercises, therefore, were used repeatedly and increasingly in the context of policymakking building on their capacity to facilitate an alignment of actors'expectations through interactions. 3. 3. 2. Examples

A classical feature of the Delphi methodology is the promotion of a convergence process leading to a consensus by surveying the experts at least twice

and semiquantiitativ data from Delphi surveys Consensus-building to reduce uncertainty about regulatory priorities and impacts Impossibility to detect major technological breakthroughs and their regulatory requirements Semiquantiitativ In case of conflicting interests, missing-consensus about priorities Identification of experts Uncertainty increases with complexity of the context (technology, markets

) and future time horizon 513 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 representatives of public organisations and regulatory bodies,

Important factors in Sweden were the fact that the value of a consensus view is considered higher than in other political systems (a positive factor;

however, that sociocultural factors made the implementation of consensus-building quite challenging. In particular, Maltese society is characterised as highly divisive and individualistic.

The raised awareness of the need for consensus-building approaches in long-term vision-setting exercises in order to ensure the sustainability of resultant polices was acknowledged as another unforeseen impact of the exercise.

which does not necessarily mean consensus.‘Perception-alignment'is established when the parties accept each other's interpretations of their respective motives and goals,

I. Miles, O. Saritas, Evaluation of the United kingdom Foresight programme, Final Report, 2005.6 E. Arnold, S. Faugert, A. Eriksson, V. Charlet, From foresight to consensus?

From a different angle, this consensus suggests a very close link between higher education and research.

there are two reasons to revisit the aforementioned, widely held, consensus on the rationale for funding‘basic'science by public money:(

shared visions and consensus on the actions need to be taken; commitment to act upon the recommendations emerging from the process.

Yet, the widely held consensus in the literature on the rationale for funding‘basic science'by public money still rests on the Humboldtian model:

In particular, under deep uncertainty, there is little agreement or consensus about system structure. Thus, exploratory modeling is used to explore Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 E-mail address:

and that consensus between the stakeholders is often lacking The onsite treatment option received highly diverse assessment scores.

but reached high desirability and consensus in the RIF process. The other case study was run in a suburb of the city of Zurich with a high pressure of settlement growth

discursive technology assessment, consensus conferences, brainstorming, expert workshops, Delphi questionnaires and expert Fig. 1. Popper's diamond 9. 1165 R. Koivisto et al./

and consensus conferences have emerged, and both technology-driven and problem-driven approaches are taken 1. It is stressed also that it is important to see technology as part of a whole technological and societal system 11.

discursive technology assessment, consensus conferences, brainstorming, expert workshops and interviews Development and future expectations of the approach New approaches like inherent safety and resilience engineering address the complex nature of industrial processes.

Much of this literature highlights the need for consensus on the scenario axes in order to foster a common basis of understanding.

The project nonetheless proceeded without consensus by producing multiple publications that treated the axes in different ways.

and interests faced by public agencies may make impossible any consensus about the meaning of scenario axes 26.

These attempts have included consensus conferences, citizen juries and mass surveys but these have attracted a small set of people

The Internet including VOIP Asynchronous e-mail Telephone conferencing Consensus conferences Social accounting and auditing. Behavioural traits (see the VALS 1 hierarchy) will have marked a influence on

Consensus is not necessarily the best arbiter in many circumstances, particularly when it is forced say, through the processes of a consensus conference.

Recognition of a distribution of opinions is probably of more use to a policy maker particularly

Actor dialogues, partnershhip consensus seeking Advisory Council for Energy Research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight

An emerging consensus seems to suggest not, and it is accepted now generally that the users of S&t knowledge and artefacts,

and consensus was much more difficult to obtain. This might have been alleviated somewhat by holding more than just two meetings for each thematic area.

and to increase consensus and commitment. Then again, the champions are the sole guarantors of a truly effective implementation of results.

These conditions, together with the pronounced consensus-orientation in policy making, provide the governance context in which the foresight

The inter-panel meetings were facilitated by experienced moderators who had to fulfil the difficult task of ensuring that a consensus could be achieved regarding the actions proposed by the four panels.

In line with this consensus-oriented approach, dissenting views were excluded either or debated until a formulation was found that could be accepted by all participants.

because on the one hand participants felt obliged to achieve a consensus on initiatives to be suggested for the RTI-strategy,

in order to ensure widespread political consensus and avoid the formulation of contentious issues that might put into question the agreement by other councillors.

Avoiding these sensitive issues was necessary to reach consensus on other proposals. Finally, the largely inward-looking nature of the process, focusing very much on the scope for action by the local government

Overall, the need to achieve consensus on immediate policy actions among the key local policy actors implied that several of the more controversial issues,

‘Communication is always characterised by the protection of interests and not by individual freedom or the search for consensus'(Hagen and Asmervik 2003,9;

consensus, accountable, transparent, responsive, effective and efficient, equitable and inclusive and follows the rule of law. It assures that corruption is minimised,

with an emphasis on points of mutual agreement and apparent consensus. This can be contrasted with dissensual development where the emphasis is purposely on retaining the full range of diverse priorities that may be suggested by different value networks

Indeed, the characterisation of focus areas in panel reports suggested that the panels had succeeded in reaching a consensus (whichwas actually the case in most panels),

Efforts reaching the consensus may, however, lead to conservative and abstract results 33, to the effect that existing path-dependencies are strengthened further.

-medium-and long-term Strategic research Agenda for Europe's plant sector setting out a consensus on the research needed to fulfil the vision.

The immediate conclusion for Foresight is need the for consensus building among stakeholders from industry and civil society for a further development of the European research and innovation system.

Consensual A project level consensus on the future developments. Still, different scenarios were considered. Fixed A fixed procedure

This relieves participants on the intensive search for consensus and direct support for decision-making which provides opportunities for creative thinking

and partnerships that are watered not down by the search for wide consensus within the innovation system.

for example, the implementation of S&t policies may call for a sufficient degree of consensus about appropriate policy instruments (e g.,

FTA PROCESSES striving for consensus differ from those welcoming diverse views on future developments; and instrumental FTA PROCESSES differ from merely informative ones.

consensus conferences and strenuous efforts to increase the publics'understanding of science. All these procedures highlighted the breadth of the cascade of situations as they have evolved over the last 40 years.

1. Participation by both men and women through freedom of association and expression on the one hand and an organised civil society on the other hand. 2. Consensus oriented resulting from an understanding of the historical, cultural and social contexts of a given society and community.

It requires different interests in society to reach a broad consensus on what is in the best interest of the whole community

participation and inclusiveness, understanding of all points of view (consensus-oriented), responsiveness which is related to effectiveness and efficiency,

It then becomes critical to understand how FTA practices can support the need to choose which social issues to pursue strategically on a participative, consensus-oriented and inclusive way

There was a general consensus among all respondents around the globe that around 65%of the drivers will have high impact

and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation. Therefore sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges.

and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation. Therefore sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges.

The formulation of visions and the display of technocratic predictions has been rendered obsolete by the need for consensus and compromise.

Second, foresight cannot impose consensus when there are deep disagreements between territorial stakeholders. Third, foresight is not a quick remedy for urgent problems

frequent disputes between political, social and economic stakeholders hinder consensus. Horizontal elements such as legislation, technology and management are weak in the first stages of the planning stages,

regardless of the claim that is sometime made for foresight that it is a neutral space for debate and consensus formation.

a bs and T (science and technology, T. F.)roadmap provides a consensus view or vision of the future S and T landscape available to decision makers.

vision-building and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation; shaping and defining research and innovation agendas (2011 FTA Conference Scientific Committee.

The difference between group elicitations (reminiscent of a small scale Delphi without the consensus seeking element) is its‘corporate'nature.

whenever consensus views of complex and controversial issues need to be generated based on constructive debate and mutual trust,

both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their translation into research policy and the creation of research infrastructure.

and‘‘dialogue''as a creative process aimed at generating insight and, in some cases, consensus In the case of strategic dialogues,

or to represent a consensus, but it is a first cut of describing the wide-ranging and fuzzy topic area provided by foresight results with a tight map that can be used as guide and context for the following steps. 4. 5 Step 5:

If there is consensus to widen the dialogue and involve stakeholders from outside the BMBF the strategic dialogue enters a new phase.

Even where there is a consensus on grand challenges, connecting them with niche areas of opportunity and development can be a very difficult task.

Delphi is a subjective-intuitive research method that aims at a consensus PAGE 56 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 on a particular topic among a group of experts,

Vision-building and consensus-building for considering and inducing guided processes of transformation. Shaping and defining dialogues on transformations

Participatory processes build consensus when assessing the current situation and devising recommendations; create ownership of joint visions;

Even if the required consensus generated and resources allocated for intervention to address grand challenges, FTA still needs to develop mechanisms for orchestrated innovation activities and policy action.

Agami et al. 29 show the use of fuzzy logic for trend impact analysis combining surprise-free forecasts and consensus-based experts'judgments.

For instance, the consultative dimension of SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment) has proven essential to build consensus amongst stakeholders around the long-term effects of large infrastructure projects.

and the lack of consensus on the valuation of model outcomes, i e. in case of‘deep uncertainty',then traditional modeling and model-based policy-making tends to fail.

the focus tends to shift towards building consensus within the scenarios, missing the opportunity to explore the potential for innovation in conflicting views.

a focus on consensus can take up too much resources 62, with a risk of diluting a sense of urgency.

In addition, our analysis indicates that scenarios with a strong focus on consensus during the development are often too vague and too broad for defining tangible innovation opportunities.

By reshaping the scenarios to reach consensus, they are limited often to accepted statements about the obvious.

Some examples of national foresights are known to have experienced problems linked with a dominance of consensus see for instance 63.

For example, by analyzing the dominant motivation of the scenario cases we found a tension between incentives for consensus building and incentives for discovery.

not to reach consensus but to recognize other parties'point of view. Recognition then, is a heuristic that leads away from conflict into a broader understanding of the complexity of a disputed subject 62.

Although consensus can identify common grounds in contested territory it should not be the primary goal of scenario processes.

and consensus increases a risk of diluting a sense of urgency. During the scenario exercise, consensus may not be appropriate to promote differences

and to stimulate novel ideas. Based on this observation (sub-section 4. 1), two groups of practice can be distinguished:

and confrontation Uncertainty matrix Intuitive Developing scenarios Shaped by convention Consensus (Delphi) Convention Legitimacy for action

consensus and negotiation, in: K. Borch, S m. Dingli, M. S. Jorgensen (Eds. Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 63 E. Göll, Futur-the research dialogue in Germany, in:

Examples of these participatory and future-oriented activities include consensus conferences in the US 24 and a consumer conference in Germany 25.

the democratic virtues of the consensus conference model, Public Underst. Sci. 17 (2008) 329 348.25 R. Zimmer, R. Hertel, G.-F. Böl, Bfr Consumer Conference Nanotechnology, Federal Institute for Risk assessment, Berlin

Concerning the novelty of the visions there was no consensus among the experts (Fig. 6). This result is quite striking

P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants

and consensus, avoid early closure and prolong the phase of divergence and openness, aiming at the assessment of diverging rather than converging elements of changing innovation patterns.

Consensus is something to work towards 469 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 but may not be desirable to achieve.

whereas stakeholders in societies that display less uncertainty avoidance are more likely to seek consensus. However,

Conversely, Consensus Conferences and User Panels are used widely in Denmark, which has a lower uncertainty avoidance index.

First, due to the dense economic and social relationships between public and private organisations, participatory and consensus seeking approaches have more appeal to policy makers than deep, scientific expert analysis of available knowledge.

and companies in Denmark support the initiation of participatory consensus approaches 2. 4. National styles in foresight and foresight methods In a recent paper,

Thus, in Danish political contexts, participatory and consensus elements have, most likely, more appeal to policy makers than systematic and analytical elements.

such as futures workshops, citizen panels and consensus conferences. It must also be noted that together with the other Nordic countries,

Nevertheless, there is a consensus among the same civil servants that there is a definite need to adopt a structured approach to long-term developments.

It would also ensure that a consensus among project partners and between these and the Commission would emerge along the way.

and to reach consensus among partners and collaborators. Although the diversity of stakeholders involved across the exercise

therefore, a consensus on the questionnaire used for the first online survey. Debate among partners took place through different communication channels:

Performance measurement systems FTA Strategy Implementation A b s T R A c T Despite the growing number of publications on firms'performance measurement systems (PMS), consensus

and experiences as well as obtain consensus on the changes needed in their existing BSC, i e. formalised in this way a‘‘contract''to implement a new management model.

which a consensus can be reached. Complexity It is clear that the issues identified in the horizon scans are very different in nature:

in order to reach a consensus as to the most likely developments and critical issues for further policy discussion.

value chain Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Policy implications Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Consensus vs controversial issues Scenario analysis

In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.

On the other hand, a consensus was reached on wellknnow factors such as universal access to broadband networks, computer literacy and ICT skills,

No consensus could be reached for the theses printed in italics Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science

On certain areas a consensus on their importtanc for the future was easy to reach

Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 65 consensus not only among political actors but also among organizations representing business interests.

building upon and consolidating consensus where possible and mapping controversial points, which will require a more elaborate implementation strategy.

searching for as much consensus among the participants as was possible. Overall, around 3, 000 people participated in the process in its various stages.

More important than consensus on future challenges not always possible is shared the sense of commitmeen to a desirable future established by different stakeholders..

Political consensus despite divergeen concepts of precaution',Science and Public policy, 32: 277 84. Wong, J. 2005)‘ Remaking the developmental state in Taiwan:

even if a consensus exists that alternative trajectories would be more beneficial to follow. Such lock in has to be borne in mind

vision-building and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation and efforts to define the research agenda, setting research priorities and specialisation focus.

Consensus-building and effectiiv engagement of civil society. Programmes and projects. Networking to address open innovation Emerging rationales for FTA.

Science successfully met the challenge of setting up more effective processes to ensure the consensus of the very best science was communicated to multiple stakeholders in a way that helps decision-making.

futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;

climate/energy. health/nutrition. mobility. security. communication Interestingly, there seems to be a considerable level of consensus on the upcoming challenges.

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