for example, Delphi, relevance trees, trend-impact analysis, cross-impact analysis, systems dynamics, and game theory (Glenn 1999; Porter et al. 2004;
by rooting them in an understanding of the long-term dynamics of technologies, economics, society, and politics.
A nonlinear dynamics model. American Behavioral Scientist 47, no. 6: 740 65. Loveridge, D. 1999.
Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Research policy 33, nos. 6 7: 897 920.
btechnology Policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of technology, Atlanta, GA, USA Highly uncertain dynamics of New and Emerging science and Technologies pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools.
'However, the highly uncertain dynamics of NESTS pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. Capturing and exploring multiple potential innovation pathways show considerable promise as a way of informing technology management and research policy.
i) understanding plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity, ii) developing a hybrid model for airport performance calculations to underpin an adaptive strategic plan,
which aim at eliciting information on the hypothetical dynamics of future preferences (individual and collective).
The formal treatment of evolutionary dynamics is presently cast in terms of the changing frequencies of some fixed entities:
The systems dynamics approach, widely used in technological forecasting since the 1950s, is btop-downq in character
and their dynamics (behavior over time) is defined via the change of their organization (or dstatet) as described by the system's differential equations.
when analyzing the dynamics of energy transitions and when trying to influence them by means of adaptive policies.
a System Dynamics 50,51 model developed for exploring the dynamics of energy system transitions 3 is used in this study.
an exploratory system dynamics approach, in: The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, System Dynamics Society, Seoul, South korea, 2010.416 C. Hamarat et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 3 E. Pruyt, J. H. Kwakkel, G. Yucel, C. Hamarat, Energy transitions towards sustainability:
The 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, WASHINGTON DC, USA, 2011.4 W. Walker, P. Harremoës, J. Rotmans, J. Van der Sluijs, M. Van
Analyzing transition dynamics: the actor-options framework for modelling socio-technical systems, in: Policy analysis, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.6 P. Eykhoff, System Identification:
, C. Macharis, P. L. Kunsch, A. Chevalier, M. Schwaniger, Combining multicriteria decision aid and system dynamics for the control of socioeconomic processes.
Technology policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2008, p. 285.37 E. Pruyt, J. Kwakkel, A bright future for system dynamics:
The 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St gallen, Switzerland, 2012.38 S. Bankes, Exploratory modeling for policy analysis, Oper.
Manag. 7 (1995) 417 431.50 J. W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1961.51 J. D. Sterman, Business Dynamics:
Erik Pruyt is the Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
Social and Political sciences & Solvay Business school of the Free University of Brussels. His research focuses mainly on the multidimensional dynamics of complex systems,
In the first case, EMA is combined with System Dynamics (SD) to study plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity.
what kinds of surprising dynamics can occur given a variety of uncertainties and a basic understanding of the system.
EMA is combinedwith an agent-based model to study transition dynamics in the electricity sector
Future-oriented technology analysis Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Deep uncertainty System dynamics Adaptive policymaking Agent-based modeling 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is understood as an umbrella label for various approaches
The asynchronous dynamics of supply and demand, aggravated by reinforcing behaviors and knock-on effects, is a breeding ground for acute and/or chronic crises 18:
how and when these dynamics and crises may materialize remains highly uncertain. EMA is used in this case to create insight into plausible dynamics.
That is, it serves as an existence proof generator. 3. 1. 1. Model Traditionally, System Dynamics is used for modeling
and simulating dynamically complex issues and analyzing their resulting nonlinear behaviors over time in order to develop and test structural policies 24, 25.
Causal loop diagrams are used often to communicate feedback loop structures included in System Dynamics models.
Fig. 1 displays the main feedback loops of a generic simulation model developed to create insight into the types of dynamics that can occur.
The model has been implemented as a System Dynamics model using the Vensim software 27.421 J. H. Kwakkel,
E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 This small and simplistic System Dynamics model was developed in about one day in close collaboration with a mineral/metal expert
i) to explore plausible dynamics of mineral/metal abundance/scarcity, and (ii) to identify, describe and visualize interesting scarcity scenarios for the client.
Both objectives were achieved at first by means of traditional System Dynamics modeling and manual exploration of the influence of key assumptions, changing one assumption at a time.
run the model and extract the results. 3. 1. 3. Analysis of results Fig. 2 shows the dynamics for 5 different outcomes of interest.
It illustrates clearly the wide variety of dynamics that can occur. It also shows that under specific conditions cyclical behavior can emerge,
is to create insight into the possible dynamics and to explore possible strategies to cope with
or prevent certain undesirable dynamics. 3. 2. Adaptive planning for airport development The air transport industry operates in a rapidly changing context.
The first case showed how EMA can be combined with System Dynamics to investigate the types of behavior that can occur with respect to mineral and metal shortages.
while in particular the first and third case demonstrate how this can be combined with nonlinear dynamic models (System Dynamics and Agent Based Modeling respectively),
a generic exploratory system dynamics model, in: T. H. Moon (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 19 E. Alonso, J. Gregory, F. Field
, R. Kirchain, Material availability and the supply chain: risks, effects, and responses, Environ. Sci. Technol. 41 (2007) 6649 6656.20 A. Valero, A. Valero, Physical geonomics:
An Exploratory System Dynamics Model and Analysis of the Global Copper System in The next 40 Years, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2011.22 J. H. Kwakkel, W
Econ. 61 (2007) 115 128.24 J. Forrester, Principles of Systems, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, MA, 1968.25 J. D. Sterman, Business Dynamics:
an exploratory system dynamics approach, in: M. H. Lee (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of The System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 27 Ventana Systems Inc, in:
Vensim Reference manual, 2011.28 G. van Rossum, in: Python Reference manual, CWI, 1995.29 Ventana Systems Inc, in:
45 G. Yücel, Analyzing Transition Dynamics, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.46 L. Breiman, J. H. Friedman, C. J. Stone, R. A
Erik Pruyt is Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
Social and Political sciences & Solvay Business school of the Free University of Brussels. His research focuses mainly on the multidimensional dynamics of complex uncertain systems,
Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas
though they seem to be very different phenomena with regard to the funding and policy dynamics in the fields.
scenarios and roadmaps challenging today's paradigms and basic assumptions on system dynamics. A third arena where systemic change needs to be addressed is innovation itself as its very definition seems to be shifting.
'such as the dynamics of change, future challenges, risks and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the current system, visions for change,
They have no clear guidelines that take the dynamics of the policy landscape and different stages of strategic policy processes into account.
The notion of Innovation Foresight is based on the consideration of different dynamics. These include the recognition of challenges facing innovation including the increasing complexity and uncertainty
Thus, the system fostered the possibility to reshape the organization's strategy. 3. 2. 3. Positive results The construction of strategic maps through system dynamics (step 2 phase 3) enabled an in depth understanding
which nowadays is referred to as a strategy map 57 61 System dynamics 61 65 In order to analyse the cause and effect relationships between measures,
a number of different scales are required 60,61 System dynamics 61 65 Performance Prism 33 The cause
66 System dynamics 61 65 There is a lack of criteria on which to base the selection of specific performance measures 52,59 Performance Prism 33 There is a need for additional perspectives
with system dynamics, in: Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Italy, 2002.64 K. Linard, C. Fleming, L. Dvorsky, System dynamics as the link between corporate vision
and key performance measures, in: 20th System Dynamics International Conference, Italy, 2002.65 F. Schoeneborn, Linking balanced scorecard to system dynamics, in:
Proceeding 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New york, 2003.66 A. Butler, S. R. Letza, B. Neale, Linking the balanced scorecard to strategy, Long Range
Planning 30 (1997) 242 253.67 S. Brignall, The unbalanced scorecard: a social and environmental critique, in:
The current and likely future dynamics of the creative content industries represent a major challeeng for the application of forward-looking methood to underpin
She is currently in charge of the SIMPHS project dealing with market and innovation dynamics around personal health systems.
survival and the dynamics of managing regime transitions that remain a continuing challenge to foresight advocates
steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.'Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Futuureoriented Technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
and market dynamics. Luarent Donzé has been an associate professor at the Univerrsit of Fribourg, Switzerland since 2002.
These grand challenges include the dynamics of demograpphic (ageing and migration), food supply, environmentta sustainability, climate change, decarbonised economic systems, poverty, terrorism, not to mention the continuing fallout from the long-running‘global financial crisis':
to capture the dynamics of Chinese science policy-making, which are characterized by quickly, if somewhat unevenly, developiin elements of both political planning and institutional empowerment, often under the political banner of‘controlled modernization'.
thus representing an ambition to square‘national needs'with‘science dynamics'.'Hence, Table 4. Allocation for S&t by Central Government in S&t programs by fields:
D'Costa, A. and Parayil, G. 2009) New Asian Dynamics in Science, Technology and Innovation.
Danish research Unit for Industrial Dynamics. Research priority setting in China. 269 Hao, X. 2008)‘ Science in China:
chaochen. chung@gmail. com This paper explores the dynamics of the configuration of the national,
and agricultural biotechnology innovation systems we find that even within the same nation different NSTISS reveal different dynamics, in terms of actors and networks, the application of technology and knowledge and institutions.
technology development and innovation policies should be customized according to the differing dynamics of the NSTISS. Keywords: innovation system; Taiwan;
within the same national border of Taiwan differren configurations of the three innovation systems show different dynamics,
and conclusion The Taiwanese pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation system and agricultural biotechnology innovation system reveal different dynamics. The three innovation systems,
Indeed, new RTDI policies should be customized to deliberately match the different dynamics of different NSTISS
rather than the dynamics of the national, sectoral or technological innovation system alone. Moreover, since the national institutions of different NSTISS may have different origins,
References Bergek, A.,Jacobsson, S.,Carlsson, B.,Lindmark, S. and Rickne, A. 2008)‘ Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems:
The Economic Dynamics of Modern Biotechnology, pp. 20 42. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Cai, H.-Q. 2007) The King of watermelon:
The Economic Dynamics of Modern Biotechnology, p. 319. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Lee, S.-J. and Hua, J. 2004)‘ The economic evaluation of the food industry using biotechnology'(.
The Economic Dynamics of Modern Biotechnology, pp. 99 134. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Science and Technology research and Information Center (2005)‘ Strategic planning on the development of Taiwan agricultural biotechnology industry'(.
as should the dynamics of research and innovation processes and the scope and opportunities for steering their reorientation along more desirable pathways of development.
and towards an operational agenda that appreciates both the dynamics of innovation processes and the scope and opportunities for their steering or reorientation along more desirable paths of development.
implies a focus on the dynamics of what is achieved actually in an innovation system. This is a potentially useful perspective for efforts directed at reorienting innovation systems towards grand challenges.
and parcel of the dynamics of innovation systems. As Hekkert et al. 2007) point out, the notion of‘function'is provided useful its heuristic value is stressed. 2. COM (2010) 2020, Brussels, 3 march 2010.3. COM (2010) 546 final, Brussels, 6 october 2010.4.
Bergek, A.,Jacobsson, S.,Carlsson, B.,Lindmark, S. and Rickne, A. 2008)‘ Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems:
SPRU, University of Sussex. van Lente, H. 1993)‘ Promising technology, the dynamics of expectations in technological development',Phd thesis, University of Twente. von Hippel, E. 2005
Such dynamics call for further research into the design of tailored FTA systems which are fit for purpose. 2. 3 FTA systems
Improving the robustness and dynamics of the R&i ecology to address (global) disruptions and engineer breakthroughs.
particularly given the uncertainties around the dynamics and impacts of grand challenges. One such international organisation is ICSU.
importance of the driver in shaping future developmeent over the next 20 years in international science. uncertainty around the direction and dynamics of the driver over the next 20 years and the impacts it is likely to have on international science
Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory',Research policy, 33: 897 920..(2005)‘ Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations:
Such differences are caused by the dynamics of evolutionary and systemic processes with different phases of competing technological alternatives and emerging dominant designs (Ko nno la et al. 2011.
I.,Soentgen, J. and Wehling, P. 2010)‘ Scientific nonknowledge and its political dynamics: The cases of agri-biotechnology and mobile phoning',Science Technology and Human Values, 35: 783 811.
urban transition and the new‘territorial dynamics'.'demographic change and‘active ageing'(EU Commission 2009: 19ff) These transitions are considered also to be‘megatrends'in other publications.
individualisation and disintegration of traditions, staging his own biography, increasing significance of virtual communities Dynaxity (dynamics+complexity):
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