Dynamics

Complex dynamics (3)
Dynamics (286)
Underlying dynamics (3)

Synopsis: Dynamics: Dynamics:

and understand the dynamics of emerging technologies. The article introduces the importance of understanding and tracing the role of dirreversibilitiest of technological changes (i e. expectations that guide the research activities of scientists and firms,

A three-level framework on the case of nanotubes is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated context:

The process dynamics, by which these different elements of innovation systems are coupled. 3. 2. 3. Phase 2:

. Carlsson, S. Lindmark, A. Rickne, Analyzing the dynamics and functionality of sectoral innovation systems a manual,

Although these approaches largely failed, due to the inbuilt simplification of the actual dynamics of social, economic and technological developments, some studies nevertheless provoked a lively discussion about the future 14

Changes and dynamics in science and technology can be identified and traced by different indicators. These indicators allow the creation of comparisons between scientific and technological fields, between countries, organisations,

Since there are numerous regulatory challenges triggered by the dynamics in science and technology one has to differentiate the analysis in those fields of high dynamics.

Regulatory challenges in the sense of controlling dominant players can be detected by calculating concentration indices of patent applications.

This procedure allows a rough assessment of the possible regulatory challenges caused by the dynamics in science

Blind 25 shows, based on international and inter-sectoral cross-section data, that the output of formal standardisation bodies can be explained significantly by the patent applications as a reliable indicator for the dynamics in the respective technologies.

For Germany, he was even able to show in time series models that the dynamics in patent applications is reflected in the output of standardisation documents 21.

it can be derived that dynamics in technology is reflected at least in standardisation activities as part of the regulatory framework in the European union.

which confirm the relationship between the dynamics of technology and the adaptation of the regulatory framework based on quantitative approaches, are missing.

An empirical exploration of the relation between isomorphism and institutional dynamics in standardization, Working Paper Department of Innovation studies, Univ. of Utrecht, Utrecht, 2002.31 T. Vad, European Standardisation why paradoxically small

A promising approach however is building mapping tools based on underlying patterns and indicators of the dynamics of emergence.

We then apply these insights to lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis. Dynamics of emerging paths can be used to articulate a future structured in terms of prospective innovation chains and potential paradigms.

These dynamics can be explained by the concept of socio-technical path 31,32: multiple actors follow their own paths-as-strategies towards a future of possible (if competing,

'which mirrors dynamics underlying technology S-curves: in early stages of technology emergence, the more flexible multi-path mapping is used;

Before delving into the context of lab-on-a-chip for cell analysis we explore what the literature can tell us with regards to insights into emerging path dynamics stemming from sociology of S&t, evolutionary economics and organization studies.

and outlook for the multi-path mapping approach. 8 Robust in the sense that it is informed by knowledge of path dynamics of new

2. Insights from studies of path dynamics and alignment In more or less stable situations, affordance structures 33 are stabilised

knowledge of path dynamics need to be integrated into a process of controlled speculation in combination with other analyses.

There is now a substantial (and growing) literature on dynamics of path emergence and stabilisation. Here we can only focus on the main lines of research

Studies in economic history, organizational dynamics and institution theory have given also rise to the notion of paths.

This model seeks to conceptualise path dynamics both at the actor and aggregate level (similar to technical paradigms).

shaping and being shaped by the historical affordance structures which guide path dynamics. The concept of emerging irreversibilities combines emerging structure (as in path dependency literature) with agency (as in path creation literature) by looking at indicators of alignment

the patchwork of emerging irreversibilities become part of the affordance structure that shapes ongoing dynamics within the socio-technical path.

one can attempt to modulate/steer dynamics towards the more desirable actor arrangements and entanglements. 2. 2. The models of path used in this project For this project we draw on the notion of socio-technical path in its two forms:

The forward-propelling dynamics of incremental innovation act as a disincentive or even boundary to radical options.

Entanglements of sociotechhnica actors and factors are both causes and effects of these dynamics. Predictions and projections of all sorts can be made (as in roadmaps) outlining the future path of socio-technical development.

2. use analysis of path dynamics and other strategic intelligence to explore the robustness of specific paths located within the field map;

but also as part of the ongoing assessments which need to be evaluated based on dynamics of path emergence.

where the underlying path dynamics could 525 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 be illustrated

The next step of our project was to focus more intently on the second management issue that of innovation chains. 5. MPM-2 innovation chain dynamics Referring to the two management challenges of Frontiers,

Section 4 described and explored a use of MPM as support for the articulation and ongoing assessment of Strategic research Areas based on dynamics of the field as a whole.

To this end, we used socio-technical scenarios to house some of the more detailed path dynamics

For the conceptual developmeen of MPM, our self-set task was to integrate insights from roadmapping, dynamics of Emerging s&t and expectations,

and path dynamics. We argued that for new and Emerging s&t path dynamics 68 should be addressed,

and can be integrated into FTA ACTIVITIES enhancing the quality of assessment/alignment activities. We mapped initial, potential multiplicity paradigms with path characteristics,

but otherwise they are constrained more or less as they are caught up in the very path dynamics at strategy

Multi-path mapping allows one to bring technical and organizational perspectives of path emergence and dynamics together in one related space.

where insights into technology dynamics are explored with actors in order to broaden at an early stage the decision making process.

however beneath these projections complex socio-technical arrangemeent and dynamics which will enable or constrain some of these actor strategy paths could be brought into view.

Because of the exploratory nature of this first project of Frontiers'FTA programme, we positioned ourselves as experts in the field of S&t dynamics and path creation vis-à-vis the field-level expertise of the workshop participants.

Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.45 M. Callon, The Dynamics of Techno-economic Networks, in:

18 july September 2006) Number 3 4. 49 M. Callon, J. Law, A. Rip, Mapping the dynamics of science and technology, The Macmillan Press Ltd.

Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: R. Williams, K. H. Sorensen (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:

and management relating to the dynamics of emerging nanotechnologies, where studies of expectations and paths are combined with strategy articulation tools to provide strategic intelligence for reflexive governance and management of Emerging s&t.

He worked in South africa on the dynamics of social development projects and science-and-technology-in-society issues and at Twente University,

Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'Effie Amanatidou a,,

Additionally, such an interpretation is conceived as a step towards the development of a conceptual framework aimed at understanding the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.

A conceptual framework of this nature sheds light on the dynamics of foresight programmes and helps identify the principles

effectiveness, appropriateness, sustainability and additionality. 6. Understanding the dynamics of foresight systems in three countries A first attempt to understand the dynamics of foresight systems can be based on the evaluation of three foresight exercises;

This in turn presupposes that the dynamics of foresight exercises are understood. A model is needed thus capable of explaining the interdependencies and interrelatiionship between foresight system elements such as actors, processes, inputs, outputs and impacts,

and a series of interviews with foresight specialists to complete the development of the model describing the dynamics of foresight exercises in different contexts.

but obviously having its own dynamics, too. 8 Finally, at the third level, the diversity of universities can be explored by devising futures for different ideal types of universities,

of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2005.29 H. Etzkowitz, L. Leysdorff, The dynamics of innovation:

The Dynamics of Science and Research in Contemporary Societies, SAGE, London, 1994.13 B. Harrison, Industrial districts:

Des. 117 (Special B)( 1995) 2 10.15 C. Marchetti, N. Nakicenovic, The Dynamics of Energy systems and the Logistic Substitution Model, International Institute for Applied Systems analysis

the dynamics of regime transformation, Res. Pol. 35 (7)( 2006) 1069 1082.15 C. R. Schwenk, The Essence of Strategic decision making, Lexington Books, Lexington, 1988.16 T. A. Larsen, W. Gujer

Resilience engineering originates from the resilience thinking of ecosysste dynamics 38 implying that ecosystems must cope with continuous changes and constant evolution.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 the resilient ecosystem dynamics, the resilience engineering stands for an industrial process

and dynamics into the analysis. The framework enables the structural comparisons of entire economies, their individual industrial sectors, related R&d and innovation intensities,

Structural characteristics, dynamics and knowledge intensity differ essentially also among developed economies, and the entire economic systems or their sub-systems are in different development phases.

Thereby the inclusion of transitional phases of economies to the comparative analyses of economic and innovation systems deepens the understanding of the long-term socioeconomic changes and dynamics.

generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policy-makers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.

know-how or opinion relevant to the dynamics of the situation ought to be the judgemental criteria exercised by the programme managers with respect to the evolving population of participants. 9. The heuristic nature of inclusive foresight means that the implementation of proposals ought to be dynamic and relevant

The population of participants in Inclusive foresight and their knowledge, know-how or opinion relevant to the dynamics of the situation ought to represent, within statistical limits,

and dynamics in the environments the hopeful technology may encounter. For those wishing to enable beneficial technology applications stemming from potentially breakthrough areas of science and technology, such as nanotechnology,

perspectives and dynamics in order to develop smarter strategies. As mentioned elsewhere 2, 3 such interactive workshops are not an easy task.

and broadening the understanding of socio-technical dynamics. Scenarios have often been used to create a synthesis of future-oriented aspects prior to an interactive workshop,

and Arie Rip have termed pre-engagement through socio-technical scenario building 2. It involves the combination of exploration of dynamics using theoretical models

and context-rich scenarios encompasses a trade-off between recognizing the complexity of actual dynamics of innovation

Such scenarios should highlight both the multilevel/multi-actor dynamics and the unfolding innovation journeys of technology development have not been developed to date.

Such scenarios require insight into co-evolutionary dynamics, of actor activities (including anticipation in the form of agendas and strategies) and of enabling and constraining factors

with little or no focus on the actual shaping dynamics on the innovation journey in the literature.

and embrace these dynamics of selection environments but go no further. Green et al. 16 in their comparison of the techno-economic networks (micro-level analysis stemming from sociology)

Robinson and Propp made a first step through exploring path dynamics 6 They developed a multi-path mapping approach

which would combine path dynamics 26 28 with the sociology of expectations 29 to prospect micro-level innovation chains.

and path dynamics which adds up to a mosaic of arenas, or gameboards, broadening (although not removing) the linear perspective of chains.

Robinson and Propp 6 used the innovation chain concept in the context of path dynamics. 7 Here I make a distinction.

they are based on the dynamics of the present: there are endogenous futures embedded in the present which can give indications

of dynamics extending into the future, including irreversibilities that arise. This is the task of scenario builder.

Constructive technology assessment (Constructive TA) 6 10 as a reflexive strategy articulation support system taking as its starting point ongoing socio-technical dynamics is particularly suitable for such a purpose.

Constructive TA adds to this because of a broader & deeper understanding of socio-technical dynamics. In the case of the Frontiers Noe for nanotechnology, the programme involved research and preparation of these scenarios an input to 1-day multi-stakeholder workshops

and interactions into account but also the surrounding or ensuing dynamics and shifts in agendas that slowly become irreversible.

Dynamics are visible at all three levels, although there is little alignment yet. The repeated occurrences and acceptance of acronyms such as ELSA (Ethical, Legal, Social Aspects) and HES (Health, Environmental, Safety) in discourse on,

This would have consequences for other elements as resources are shifted away from them (path dynamics.

and on hype and mobilizing resources (promise requirement dynamics). 4. Summary of the scenarios Taking Fig. 2 as the game board, identification of some of the endogenous futures11, three co-evolutionary scenarios where created

Participants in the workshop recognized the dynamics given in the scenario narratives. Elements were picked up,

using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: K. H. Sørensen, R. Williams (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:

Change 75 (2008) 517 538.7 A. Rip, J. Schot, Identifying loci for influencing the dynamics of technological development, in:

Paper Series, Working Paper#08.19,2009. 18 H. van Lente, Promising Technology The Dynamics of Expectations in Technological developments.

The dynamics of science and research in contemporary societies. London: Sage. Grant, R. M. 1991.

ICT Infrastructure Telecoms Voip Social & human sciences Economy, policies, institutional framework Economy and finance Dynamics of financial wealth creation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december

The dynamics of science in a small country: the case of Luxembourg. Science and Public policy 35, no. 5: 361 71.

1) Policy informing by generating consolidated findings concerning the dynamics of change, future challenges and options and transmitting it to policy makers as an input into policy conceptualisation and design.

3) Policy facilitating by building a common awareness of current dynamics and future developmment as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders,

4) Accelerating the dynamics in RTI by providing adequate infrastructure. 5) Integrating Vienna's RTI in European networks and strengthening co-operation within the CENTROPE region in order to create a common RTI area that will successfully compete in Europe and in the world. 4. 3. From strategy to action:

Loveridge (2008,135) addresses one of the persisting dynamics in foresight which is the narrowness in both participation and focus of institutional foresight programmes:‘

the dynamics of expectations in technological developments. Phd diss. University of Twente. Van Notten, P. 2005.

Moving forward the edition has shown FTA to be in a transitional stage brought about both by its internal dynamics and by the broader global environment.

which reflects the dynamics of knowledge production (for R&i) that are shaping the various techno-scientific fields.

The need to tailor policy instruments to the characteristics of the targeted field is grounded well in insights from research on the dynamics of innovation and knowledge generation.

Innovation studies have pointed out how the dynamics of innovation systems are structured by the nature of the governing technological regimes that in turn co-evolve with socioeconomic and institutional framework conditions.

and thereby shape the dynamics of knowledge production 11. The sectoral systems of innovation approach which is focussing on the characteristics of knowledge production has been complemented by analysis of the properties of application domains

In an early attempt to explore dependency between field dynamics and Foresight success the FORMAKIN project highlighted how Foresight works differently in close

But, undoubtedly, with the dynamics of the ERA building, a European R&i system is emerging,

and dynamics of knowledge production which impact the state of play in each cell of the matrix, hence the proper Foresight design.

programming and performing is driven partly by the content and the dynamics of research activities and by the innovation patterns and interactions of different thematic fields or sectors(‘‘Knowledge dynamics''.

On the contrary one can assume that dynamics are differentiated depending on fields and sectors 43. The first component of field configuration relates to Knowledge dynamics building on Bonaccorsi's initial proposal

Growth in the field of N&n is considered as a divergent dynamics, which has also been deemed as displaying proliferation traits:

Both field dynamics were described using the selected parameters. Based on this analysis conclusions for potential Foresight exercises with a relevant contribution for the development of these fields were sketched.

This may be due to a lack of sensitivity towards the dynamics of the innovation and production realmcompared to the academic knowledge production.

Also the societal and market dynamics needs to be integrated better into the scheme. Consumer attitudeswhichplay a keyrole in bothcase studies becamerelevantonly indirectly inthe case ofgm plants as a driving factor for legislation.

Finally, it needs to be ensured that tailoring of Foresight to the current dynamics of a research

and innovation field does not exclude the exploration of radical changes in these dynamics. To sum up

References 1 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, Minerva 46 (3)( 2008) 285 315.2 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, M. Keenan,

Technological change and Industrial Dynamics, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, 2001.18 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, Challenging Europe's Research Rationales for the European research area

industrial activities in wireless communications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (9)( 2004) 897 912.41 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, in:

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:

Case study on Chemistry (ERA Dynamics PRIME Project), 2009.45 P. van den Besselaar, A. Schoen, Knowledge dynamics: a network analytical approach, in:

Presentation at the 2nd PRIME Indicators Conference on STI Indicators for Policy Addressing New Demands of Stakeholders, Oslo, 28 30,may 2008. 47 A. Bonaccorsi, The dynamics of science in the nano

Maintaining the flexibility to accommodate constantly changing market dynamics has become more important than ever in planning processes.

interdependent, organic systems that demonstrate nonequilibrium dynamics typical of ecological systems. Such systems are susceptible to nonlinear perturbations that can have far-reaching

such as regulatory or political dynamics...S ense-and-respond firms must excel at sensing subtle change earlier

Continuing advances in fields of complexity, nonlinear dynamics, and chaos theory in scientific as well as business applications turn up in abstract sets on a regular basis.

Human and Societal Dynamics, IOS Press, 2006, pp. 92 109.22 A. Sokolov, Russian Critical technologies 2015, European foresight monitoring Network Brief, 79.

Indeed, understanding the dynamics of technological change is just one part of a broader mandate. This is in part

and this involves knowledge of historical and contemporary dynamics and developments, and what their implications may be for future circumstances.

Practically any source of insight into the dynamics of science and technology (S&t) their production, communication, application can be utilised as knowledge inputs into FTA.

or system dynamics simulation modelling (whether using codified statistical data or inputs may be more based on group or individual judgement),

and knowledge One of the most influential contributions to thinking about organisational learning and KM has been the model of the dynamics of shared knowledge creation developed by Nonaka and Takeuchi 19.

The Dynamics of Science and Research in Contemporary Societies, Sage Publications, London. Gordon, T. J.,Glenn, J. C. and Jakil, A. 2005),‘Frontiers of future research:

and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms.

To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes.

A threeleeve framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society.

To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that,

This dilemma highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of technological developments even at very early stages.

an understanding of the dynamics is necessary. As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,

important here are the dynamics of expectations and the processes of agenda building. We will develop a three-level framework,

which enables to trace the dynamics of expectations and agenda building in detail and we employ it in our case study. We will show that it is possible to trace emerging irreversibilities for a specific application of nanotubes (Section 3). We will conclude by placing our contribution in a historical perspective of technology assessment

in order to address the dynamics of expectations and processes of agenda building. Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements Reports that translate technological developments into market potentials Articles addressing the market potentials of technological developments Press releases of individual firms Articles that address the developments

The company plays an important role in the development of nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes. 3. 1. Tracing dynamics of expectations The three levels in the framework can be specified in relation to the case.

At the market side, other dynamics are present. Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.

) 3. 3. Tracing emerging irreversibilities Based on the evidence on the dynamics of expectations and agenda building processes as presented in the previous two paragraphs, we will now present main findings for each of the different cells

insights in the fluidic situation and the dynamics of emerging technologies can be gained. Our attempt relates to the historical trend of technology assessment methods to incorporate

and exploit the actual technology dynamics 32. A brief historical digression is helpful at this point.

an understanding of the early dynamics is necessary. As argued above, applying the proposed method helps to increase this understanding.

Understanding the dynamics from the different perspectives gives insight in the different points of view of the actors involved in the CTA study. 16 Finally,

The prevailing type of study in journals and books on technology dynamics is a retrospective analysis. The drawbacks of a retrospective approach are well-known:

insights are gained about the dynamics within the three levels and how the levels interact. These insights are valuable for understanding the dynamics of a particular technology

and help to trace emerging irreversibilities in the early phases of technological development. Acknowledgements The authors of this paper would like to thank Arie Rip, Ruud Smits, Ulrich Fiedeler and Nik Brown for their valuable comments.

Economy, Pinter, London, 1984, pp. 78 101.4 J. M. Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1994.16 For example, one of the components

and to view them in light of the dynamics at the separate levels. In addition the results and insights that are gained by applying CTA tools in practice can be fed back into theories of technology dynamics.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1109 5 H. Van Lente, Forceful futures:

the dynamics of expectations in technological development. Dissertation, Delft: Eburon, 1993.11 B. Latour, Science in Action, Open University Press, Milton Keynes, 1987.12 OECD, Technology and the economy:

Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: K. H. Sørensen, R. Williams (Eds. Shaping technology, Guiding Policy:

In his Phd thesis he examines the dynamics of expectations in the development of technology.

and unfiltered channel bridging one with the other (the unpredictable dynamics of the political process get in the way).

and dynamics, looking at constitutional, institutional and administrative law (public actors and relationships with the public administration);

Guo, Ma, Porter and Huang propose an approach to address the highly uncertain dynamics of New & Emerging science &technologies (NESTS.

Already relatively simple systems have interactions, nonlinear dynamics, and sensitivity that lead to chaos, strange attractors,

Mapping the dynamics of science and technology: Sociology of science in the real world. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Macmillan. CEPT-CCH-GSM. 1982.

The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multilevel analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860 1930.

technological change and dynamics 1. Introduction While foresight has been developed into an important instrument for both firms

Functions for policy Description Informing policy Generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options,

Van Lente (1993,2000) has argued that such transformation of a promise into a requirement is a central mechanism in the dynamics of expectations:

to meticulously organised arguments to counteract foreseen rebuttals. 3. 1. Dynamics of expectations How, then, is the dynamics of expectations depicted in the sociology of expectations?

The wellknnow story of Moore's Law is used often as a prime example (Mackenzie 1990.

The sociology of expectations has detailed three forces of expectations in the dynamics of technical change: legitimation, heuristic guidance and coordinattion First,

The criticism is that such dynamics can be traced only ex post, and that the approach is insufficiently robust for an ex ante policy (Berkhout 2006).

Such countervaailin strategy, again, is weakened by the dynamics of expectation, because stakeholders may be new, but their contribution will draw from a more general repertoire (Nahuis and Van Lente 2008).

including self-fulfiling and self-denying dynamics. In the case of priority-setting, foresight will reinforce innovation races:

and philosophy and has published widely on the dynamics of expectations in science and technology. His research interests concern how emerging technologies such as nanotechnology

The social dynamics of expectations: The interaction of collective and actor-specific expectations on electronic commerce and interactive television.

The dynamics of expectations in technological developments. Phd thesis (University of Twente), Delft: Eburon. Van Lente, H. 2000.

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