Early identification of likely innovations can help discern opportunities, foster energy transitions, and foresee societal impacts beneficial,
We note several innovation system conceptual modelling efforts pertaining particularly to energy technology, given our case focus on solar cells.
an important renewable energy technology form (also known as photovoltaics). DSSCS, one type of nano-enabled solar cells with special promise,
The recent upsurge in support for renewable energy promotes solar cell initiatives. In the long term, we believe that general Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 849 Figure 2. TDS for DSSCS in the USA. economic forces will favour innovation
and influential environmental factors (e g. economy recovery act support for renewable energy development). Key reviewarticles helped us to understand the important componeent and players in this‘delivery system'.
led by the Swedish Energy Agency. But the dominant funding source is NSFC (China) with 216 papers acknowledging its support.
US National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) is second with 4780, but much reduced activity recently;
In one stream of exploration, we consider the intersection of advanced dye formulations (to enhance light energy capture)
UKINNOVATION systems for newand renewable energy technologies: Drivers, barriers and systems failures. Energy Policy 33, no. 16: 2123 38.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 859 Guo, Y.,L. Huang,
The diffusion of renewable energy technology: An analytical framework and key issues for research. Energy Policy 28, no. 9: 625 41.
Leydesdorff, L, . and I. Rafols. 2009. A global map of science based on the ISI subject categories.
or cell structures incorporating several band gaps Intermediate band gap solar cells In research, very promising in the future Copper indium diselenide (CIS) Modification of the photonic energy distribution prior to absorption
As can be seen in the map, the scenarios and Delphi areas related to energy, resources, and environment gather on the left side,
half of the key areas above, are related to energy, resources, and environment. This implies that the areas that are conducive to the realization of energy-and-environment related future visions gathered much attention from experts in a variety of technological disciplines.
In the map circular dots indicate the 36 key areas above, which are graded according to the experts'expectation.
The group of clusters related to energy, resources, and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first group of expected innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society
as are energy and environment related areas. The area addresses the issue of constructing a new information society system where ICT underpins the basic infrastructure of society,
and Table I Areas of key importance for the resolution of four challenges ID Key areas Energy,
resources, and environment 01-D Energy-relateda 03-H Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment 05-A Geo-diagnosis technologyb 05-B
Space and ocean management technology (including observations) a 06-A Nuclear energyb 06-D Renewable energyb 06-C Fossil energy 06-H Efficient power
storage system 06-L Energy saving 07-B Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries resources 07-C Water resources 07-D Environment, recyclable resources, recycling, LCA 07-E Hydrocarbon resources, mineral resources,
/resource-and energy-saving products 08-J Pollution prevention for atmosphere, water and soil/circulative use technology for water resources 10-F Energy, resources,
and environmenta Health and medical care 03-B Applied bio-nanotechnology 03-E Medical treatment (exogenous factor, metabolic disease,
Ireland that supported the research reported in the paper. themes such as energy, resources, health and security.
1. climate change and clean energy; 2. sustainable transport; 3. sustainable consumption and production; 4. conservation and management of natural resources;
tightening supplies of energy, water and food, ageing societies, public health, pandemics and security. It must tackle the overarching challenge of turning Europe into an eco-efficient economy''.
and support in RTDI towards addressing grand challenges in areas such as energy, resources, demographic change, health and security. 3. Irish foresight project on global drivers and their implications for research and innovation:
2. renewable energy; 3. peak oil; 4. converging technologies; 5. increasing pace of change; and 6. energy security.
Figure 1 shows the distribution of drivers and trends on an impact versus likelihood matrix.
Biosciences and the genome Cloud computing Privatisation of agricultural science Resources Renewable energy Energy security Water scarcity Food scarcity Peak oil Mineral and resource depletions
growth Energy security Renewable energy Renewable energy Peak oil Global trade falters Converging technologies Increasing pace of change Increasing pace of change Open innovation
models Cloud computing Peak oil Energy security Ageing populations ICT in education Banking regulation? Table V Challenges identified with their potential research implications Examples of challenges identified Potential research implications Energy Ireland is dependent on external sources of energy supplies at present
and will continue to be so for at least ten years while renewable energy makes an impact on energy supply The challenge for Ireland is to achieve greater energy security
whilst meeting its international commitments to carbon emission reduction and without damaging its international competitiveness How can Ireland achieve this delicate balance taking advantage of its natural resources (wave
Increase the available options for renewable energy generation capacity Install advanced distribution networks with international connectivity Develop
The concern over sustainable, secure energy (first example featured in Table V) may be regarded as a grand challenge in this vein.
for example, energy and other resources) and this was reflected in the construction of grand challenges. In terms of engineering science and technology, it was a relatively simple process to identify possible responses from the research and innovation systems at a national level, through addressing known gaps in capacity and building on emerging areas of strength.
dependencies and enabling conditions in areas such as renewable energy. The small country context was an important dimension throughout the exercise
it was put forward that Ireland could pilot new approaches for dealing with challenging areas such as energy and healthcare. 5. Conclusions With the increasing recognition of the concept of grand challenges over recent years,
energy, food and demographic changes. The Lund Declaration and other initiatives have provided high-level impetus for actors in the research
there is a relatively strong consensus on the definition of several of them especially energy, climate change, demographics, etc.
These aspects are analysed also during the course of various foresight studies undertaken in such sectors as transport, energy, agriculture, etc.
All Russian hydropower plants together generate just 20 per cent of the electricity produced in the country (Russian Energy Strategy:
B Power Engineering and Energy Saving; B Manufacturing Systems; and B Safety. The thematic area‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''covers the following five technology areas:
and B Energy efficiency and Energy Saving.‘‘‘‘Rational Use of Nature Resources''was considered therefore one of the key priorities.
Russian Energy Strategy: 2030 (2009), Russian Energy Strategy: 2030, Russian Federation, Moscow. Russian Federation (2009), On the Current State and Utilisation of Mineral resources of the Russian Federation in 2009, State Report, Russian Federation, Moscow.
Sokolov, A. 2008a),‘Science and technology foresight in Russia: results of a national Delphi'',3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 16-17 october, Seville, Book of Abstracts.
and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy
and the environment Energy Participation (Delphi second round) 202 experts 390 experts 177 experts Counts of Delphi topics related to sustainable energy 35 76 83vol.15
Field 1 Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy 2 Audiovisual technology 3 Telecommunications 4 Digital communication 5 Basic communication processes 6 Computer technology 7 IT methods
Table IV Examples of WIPO IPC technology concordance table Field IPC codes 1. Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy F21#,H01b, H01c, H01f
Interactions within the technology field are shown not in Figure 2. By viewing the union result of the mapping from the application technology side, conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is a hot technology application before the year 2020, where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management),
(Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 12 (Control), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering.
where the possible application technologies comprise of technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 3 (Telecommunications), 8 (Semiconductors), 10 (Measurement), 13 (Medical technology), 20 (Materials
Technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) is prospected also as a hot source technology, especially by South korea,
comprising technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 13 (Medical technology), 14 (Organic fine chemistry), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy
the prospected application technologies will be technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering).
1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), technology 15 (Biotechnology) to technology 1 Figure 2 Summary result of the mapping in three countries PAGE 62 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 (Electrical machinery
, apparatus, energy), technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), technology 35 (Civil engineering) to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
apparatus, energy) to technology 32 (Transport. The keywords extracted from the content of the Delphi topics that link with the overlapping result of the mapping are summarized in Table VI. 3. 1. 2 Mapping result of Japan.
(Control) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Energy management technology/electricity storage technology/efficiently use distributed generation;
cooling cogeneration/building use 15 (Biotechnology) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Artificial photosynthesis technology/solar energy conversion efficiency;
technology for electric power generation/synthetic fuels manufacturing/gasification of biomass South korea Verified in vivo photosynthetic/organisms convert energy;
bio-energy/battery technology China Biofuel; biomass gasification power generation 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large capacity combined cycle power generation
/large scale gas turbines; micro cogeneration systems/residential use; ceramic micro gas turbines/thermal efficiency; ocean-thermal conversion/electric power generation South korea Cogeneration fuel cell/residential use;
ocean energy; very large (5mw) wind power generation equipment design; ocean energy/seawater desalination China Integrated gasification combined cycle 35 (Civil engineering) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large-area thin-film solar cells;
conversion efficiency South korea Solar and fuel cell power system China Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions; large and very large grid-connected/photovoltaic power plant development in desert 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) 32 (Transport) Japan Polymer electrolyte fuel cells
/vehicle use South korea Material for battery/electric vehicles or transportation; fuel cell/vehicle use; hybrid power system/vehicle use China Hybrid power system VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 63 As shown in Figure 3, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is targeted the main application technology by other technologies before the year 2020. The source technologies comprise technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 24 (Environmental
The most intensive linkage of the interaction is source technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
The second most intensive linkage of the interaction is source technology 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers) to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
apparatus, energy) receives technologies from technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 31 (Transport
) and 35 (Civil engineering), especially technologies 23 (Chemical engineering) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) show higher linkage with technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
Technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) can also be a source technology; the application technologies comprise technologies 3 (Telecommunications), 6 (Computer technology), 13 (Medical technology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 26 (Machine tools), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 32 (Transport
Technologies 32 (Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering) especially show higher linkages with technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
the application technologies comprise of technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 3 (Telecommunications), 8 (Semiconductors), 10 (Measurement), 13 (Medical technology), 20 (Materials, metallurgy
The linkages are especially more intensive on technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 10 (Measurement) and 32 (Transport.
energy) is a hot application technology. Source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management), 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry
and 12 (Control) and 35 (Civil engineering) show especially higher linkages with technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
The possible application technologies comprise technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 32 (Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering),
but technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) and 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus) reveal higher linkages.
The application technologies comprise of technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 14 (Organic fine chemistry), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy) and 24
jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 energy. The important source technologies comprise technologies 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 24 (Environmental technology) and 35 (Civil engineering.
energy) since many other source technologies will contribute to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) and simultaneously technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is also a means for application to other technologies. The source technologies contributing to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) comprise source technologies 12 (Control), 23 (Chemical engineering), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering),
while the content of the Delphi topics contain‘‘Distributed power generation with energy conversion efficiency of more than 40 percent and large-scale solar power in practical use'',
''The application technologies for source technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) comprise technologies 26 (Machine tools), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 32 (Transport), 34 (Other
Higher linkages are demonstrated in technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) to application technology 32 (Transport),
and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Development of high energy density of the large battery materials for electric vehicles and various transportation use'',Fuel cell vehicles for practical use,
examples being technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 24 (Environmental technology) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines),
combined energy plant, ''and‘‘Development nuclear waste processing method that can reduce the size of nuclear fuel after use
which can be used to generate clean energy the economic mass production of hydrogen, ''and‘‘Maximization of nuclear reactor safety/economic in operation, optimization of the new nuclear reactor design and efficiency of monitoring/lowering the risk by optimization and actively use of information technology''.
examples include technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 19 (Basic materials chemistry) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines.
''Meanwhile, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) is a hot application technology. The possible cross-interacted source technologies come from source technology 12 (Control), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), and 35 (Civil engineering.
The content of these topics comprises‘‘Circulating fluidized bed flue gas desulfurization'',Coal gasification-based poly-generation technology'',Energy consumption analysis for construction and building environmental systems and energy saving optimization technology,
From Japan's result, technology development is focused more on using different source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
it focuses not only on possible source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
but also tries to explore the possibility for supplying technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) as an important source technology,
i e. the environmental issues caused by the mass use of conventional energy such as coal, must be solved,
The difference in technology options or prospects may be derived from the different context of energy use
and enormous amounts of energy released and consequent tsunami with eventual devastation. Thus, the presence of subjectivity and ignorance in all forms should be kept in mind
Energy, climate change, natural resources, food, water, and migration are among the most widely referred grand challenges. These are very large topics with fuzzy boundaries.
e g. climate changes, energy, water, use of other natural resources, migration induced by war and other conflicts, economic hardship,
Hamarat et al. 11 explore the application of EMA combined with a number of tools in a case that focuses on a large systemic transformation or transition of an energy generation system towards a more sustainable functioning.
In the NEEDS project (www. needs-project. org), the acceptability of future energy technology options was submitted to a multi-criteria assessment involving a panel of stakeholders, the results
Such sectors include energy 32 (see the Energy Foresight Network: www. efonet. org), transport and climate change.
the case of energy and environment policies, Peter Lang, 2010. ISBN 978-90-5201-586-6 pb. 33 N. Shibata, Y. Kajikawa, Y. Takeda,
Deliverable 3. 1 of EFONET Energy Foresight Network, 2009, Available at: http://www. efonet. org/index. php?
and Innovative Approaches) and EFONET (Energy Foresight Network) and is rapporteur of the EC Working group Global Europe 2030 2050.
a cell seen as a factory, with complex relationships and functions such as signaling, energy budget, transport,
is illustrated on a policy-making case related to energy transitions. This case demonstrates how the performance of a policy can be improved iteratively by exploring its performance across thousands of plausible scenarios,
not only appropriate for energy transitions; it is also appropriate for any long-term structural and systematic transformation characterized by dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
and the case we use to illustrate the approach here relates to policy-making for stimulating energy transitions.
This energy transition case is used therefore for illustrating how this approach could be used for policy-making,
Section 3 contains the energy transition case and the illustration of our approach to it.
Adaptive Robust Design in case of energy transitions In order to illustrate how the ARD approach helps in designing adaptive policies,
Energy transitions are characterized by many deep uncertainties related to transition mechanisms, to the various competing technologies, and to human and organizational decision-making 45.
Here we focus on the competition between technologies. 3. 1. Introduction to the energy transition case
including transportation, housing, water and energy 46. Energy is a crucial domain inwhich a fundamental transition toward clean generation technologies is desirable 47 for environmental and security reasons.
The current energy systemis mainly dominated by fossil energy generation technologies which are being challenged by rapidly evolving emerging technologies.
Although new sustainable energy technologies are entering the market, their contribution to the total amount of energy generation is still relatively small.
Transition of the energy systemtoward sustainability depends on the developments related to new technologies. Such developments are characterized typically by non-linearity and uncertainty regarding technological characteristics and market adoption 48
49. For example, precise lifetimes of technologies are known not and expected values are used in planning decisions. Also, since the installation of new capacity mostly happens in large chunks,
when analyzing the dynamics of energy transitions and when trying to influence them by means of adaptive policies.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 In order to explore the problem and the uncertainties of energy transitions,
the main structures driving the competition among four energy technologies. Technology 1 represents old dominant nonrenewable technologies.
in order to increase their share of energy generation, driven by mechanisms such as total energy demand, investment costs and the effect of learning curves on costs.
A more detailed explanation of the model can be found in 3 . And the uncertainties taken into consideration
The figure shows the behavior over time for the outcome indicator‘fraction of new technologies of total energy generation'as well as the Gaussian Kernel Density Estimates (KDES) 56 of the end states.
If the goal is an energy transition toward sustainability, then this ensemble as a whole is unlikely to be acceptable
and preference for the expected progress criterion may also hinder the energy transition. Each of the economic growth parameters indicated in the third region corresponds to the value of economic development for ten years
The proposed approach has been illustrated on an energy transition case. Several of our findings warrant further discussion.
and robust policies for socioeconomic and technological changes (i e. energy transitions). This study illustrated the potential of EMA for FTA as suggested by Porter et al. 17.
has been illustrated through a case about the structural and systemic transformation of energy generation systems toward a more sustainable future.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 3 E. Pruyt, J. H. Kwakkel, G. Yucel, C. Hamarat, Energy transitions towards sustainability:
Change 77 (2010) 355 368.13 S. Popper, J. Griffin, C. Berrebi, T. Light, E. Y. Min, Natural gas and Israel's energy future:
His applied interests include climate change/energy issues, public health and health policies, financial crisis and energy systems. His current research interests are adaptive policy making and the use of optimization in policy-making.
total amount of electric energy generated. Total fossil: total amount of electric energy generated using fossil fuels as the energy source.
Total non-fossil: total amount of electric energy generated using non-fossil fuels as the energy source (renewables and nuclear.
Capacity: total installed power generation capacity. Price: average price of electricity on the central grid.
the future generation of energy will not be very sustainable. That is, in most cases, the fraction of fossil based generation in the final year is higher than 0. 6. Thus,
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System User's Manual, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, WASHINGTON DC, 2009.42 P. G. Cowell, R. Gerrard, D
and energy transitions. Next to this research, he also has an interest in scientometrics and techmining.
Rev. 25 (1995) 40.53 A. Lovins, Soft Energy Paths: Towards a Durable Peace, Friends of the Earth International, San francisco, 1977.231 pp..
most noticeably but by no means exclusively at European level where societal challenges such as health, energy and food security, transport, climate and resources and innovative and secure societies became first a part of the ERA debate 10 and subsequently a central
(what we are doing on energy etc.).Similar difficulties are encountered by funding agencies and their parent administrations.
various energy action plans have many similarities to foresight, both with regard to the processes and results.
other factors, particularly the Parliament's energy agreement, have contributed significantly to the prioritisation process. The key actors in this phase were the five negotiators from each of the five parties that were behind the Globalisation Strategy.
but the most important methodological Box 1. Final priorities in the Research2015 catalogue 34 Energy, climate and the environment Energy systems of the future Future climate and climate adaption Competitive environment
Theme Budgets in millions of DKKS 2009 2010 Energy, climate and environment Energy systems of the future 190 455 Future climate and climate adaptation 43 0 Climate
At the end of 2009, the first three KICS in the areas of climate change (Climate KIC), energy (KIC Innoenergy) and Information and Communication Technologies (EIT ICT Labs;
such as‘‘The sand motor'',Energy from water, ''and‘‘The most beautiful and safe delta''60.
The growing energy demand and uncerttaint in energy supply is not only related to the scarcity of some of these resources,
transporting and producing energy using all thinkable resources), to our potential to change our way of living (behaviour) and to the geopolitical developpment (energy demand of developing giant economies and tensions about distribution of scarce resources).
This issue not only requires a transdiscipliinar approach, but it also requires a policy that transcends several policy areas and the borders of countries.
Energy forecasts using a‘Roundless'approach to running a Delphi study. Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35.
wood processing, paper, printing, glass/stone/clay, metal, metalworking, watches, other manufacturing, energy; traditional service industries:
Table 1. Theme Objectives Focus Initial phase Main phase Commitment phase Energy Establishment of R&d priority agenda,
considering existing challenges to Brazilian energy matrix in next 20 years Technologies for generation of electric energy, fuel supply and energy transmission and distribution, distributed generaatio and storage, planning
energy, information resources and environment, populatiio and health, materials etc..The objectives are to produce groundbreaking research that addresses importaan scientific issues concerning national economic and social development.
1354 1648 1900 Agriculture science 100 86 84 105 109 111 145 170 Energy science 77 68 90 84 95
by providing techniica solutions for overcoming problems such as scarcity of resources, provision of energy, and environmental degradation.
Technological generatiion diffusion and utilization are at the core of the analysis. Comparing the energy innovation systems of Germany, Sweden and The netherlands,
the evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology',Industrial and Corporate Change, 13: 815 49.
Finding a solution to the problem of scarce energy resources, for example, requires not only surpassing long-established vested interests in certain resources but also a change in the behaviour, norms and values of societies.
and has formulated ambitious policy objectives for climate change, energy security, demographic ageing and resource efficiency. At the same time the Europe 2020 Strategy notes that a partnership approach should extend to EU committees, to national parliaments and national, local and regional authorities,
The first ones were created in the areas of climate change, energy and informmatio and communications technologies. In 2011, the JRC-IPTS supported the European Institute of technology to identify potential priority areas for new KICS from 2013.
Social and environmental challenges deal with the causes and consequences of issues such as climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society,
this includes water, food, energy, ecosystems, materials..Global environmental change: from oceans to ecosysteem to the cryosphere and atmosphere, the forecasts are consistent in suggesting broad changes with major impacts on society over the coming two decades..
References Beddington, J. 2009)‘ Food, energy, water and the climate: A perfect storm of global events?'
and communiccatio technologies (ICT) is very different from the long-term of transport or energy infrastructure),
focusing on the questions of energy price and availability. The scarcity of water is an important issue,
new solutions, convergence, disruptions Enabling technologies Energy-efficiency requirements, energy price and availability; Scarcity of water; Population growth;
Energy management systems (EMS; Sensor technologies Product model technologies integrates building in urban infrastructure; Energy harvesting HVAC;
User-enabled energy management systems; Self-powered wireless sensors Cost-efficiency Customer-driven, flexibility, accessibility MARKETS:
Pricing values building performance over its life-cycle; System and sub-system integrators; Performance based regulations; Green building standards go mainstream in new constructions;
Low-energy concepts; Distributed building services systems (e g. heating, air conditioning; Separate solutions for design, building, and operation;
Zero energy concepts; Distributed building services systems (e g. cooling, air conditioning, heating; Integrated user interface for all controls of building services;
Positive energy concepts (e g. building as a power plant; Distributed energy generation and harvesting; Inconspicuous and adjustable user interfaces;
Virtual spaces that enable life-cycle customization Advanced materials; Energy efficient lighting solutions (e g. LED) High performance insulating materials Product model technologies linking design, building, and operation;
Real-time energy management systems; Sensor networks and ubiquitous sensing Nanostructured materials; Low-exergy technologies renewable sources, energy storage;
Energy efficient, flexible lighting solutions (e g. OLED) Figure 3. Transformation roadmap of green and intelligent buildings in Victoria, Australia. 184.
assessment and certification services, low-energy concepts and distributed building services systems (e g. heating and air conditioning.
zero energy concepts, distributed building services systems (e g. for cooling, air conditioning and heating), integrated user interface for all controls of building services,
performance contracting and performance-based insuraances In the long-term the more emergent solutions are positive energy concepts, e g.‘
‘building as a power plant',distributed energy generation and harvesting, adjustable user interfaces and virtual spaces that enable life-cycle customization. 4. 2. 4 Key enablers.
A further enabler is energy management systems (EMS) that are also being integrated into the overall building design.
In the long term, the use of low-energy technologies and energy efficient, flexible lighting solutions (e g.
energy harvesting HVACS and user-enabled EMS. Innovation policy roadmapping. 185 5. Case study 2: Roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT, Finland 5. 1 Background The second case study is a roadmap of an emerging systemic field:
Economic incentives Increasing prices of energy and raw materials No regulation or economic incentives governmental activities do not encourage the utilization of sustainable ICTS Systemic issues:
Policies for smart energy; Policies for lifecycle efficient production ACTOR-ORIENTED POLICIES: Policies to enable voluntary citizen actions on environmentally sustainable ICT;
accessible and economical energy generation (using renewablles) distribution and consumption both in households and business/industry.
Intelligent transportation systems and remote collaboration technologies have reduced unnecessary traffic and minimised the energy usage of transportation in general.
The increasing price of energy and raw materials is also a significant driver. In the long term, drivers other than just climate change will play a larger role globally.
The second type of systemic policy concerns smart energy. In this, smart metering and sensor network-based subutility energy measurements play a key Present Medium term Long term Key technologybaase solutions Vision Basic automatic meter reading (AMR) maturing Present
Medium term Long term Preliminary solutions for automatic recycling Old meters replaced by AMRENAABLE ones High-end videoconferencing solutions
i e. producing different products, such as water and energy, same facility New ICT-based tools and processes for the design and operation of factories Digitalized production processes, like virtual prototyping Intelligent products with life cycle management modules
and sensor technologies could result in more elaborate energy consumpptio information, from both temporal and load profile perspectives.
demand forecasting for energy companies, energy performmanc benchmarking for building operators, dynamic pricing and energy consumption monitoring for individual residents.
In the future, systems will be integrated towards a smart grid concept that enables distributed, small-scale energy generation. This also requires new energy market players that take the responsibility for aggregating the distributed energy resources to the grids.
The third type of systemic policies is policies for life-cycle efficient producttion for example factory facilities to produce several different types of products
and the adoption of digitalized production processes. The emergence of life-cycle oriented policies is linked to the policies on information disclosure
A considerable portion of the energy is generated and distributed in buildings or at the neighbourhood level.
A considerable portion of the energy is generated in a distributed manner in buildings or at the neighbourhood level
using mainly renewable energy sources. Remote collaboration solutions provide a virtual presence, integrating physical and virtual worlds into a single seamless user experience. 188.
and a smart energy supply. There are advanced identificatiio and recognition technologies for waste management and recycling.
In the long term, advanced modelling, optimization and artificial intelligence methods will enable intelligent products, recycling and energy grid solutions.
Smart grids with controllable distributed energy resources will enable high penetrations of intermittent or non-controllable renewable generation and distributed generation.
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