Tailoring Foresight to field specificities§Antoine Schoen a,,*Totti Ko nno la b, 1, Philine Warnke c, 2, Re'mi Barre'd, 3, Stefan Kuhlmann e, 4 a Universite
The theoretical framework is elaborated by applying it in two R&i fields:(i) GM plants and (ii) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies.
first in the area of genetically modified plants and then for the domain of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. 2. Background and rationale 2. 1. Tailoring Foresight a revision During the last two decades the field of Foresight has developed a lot through practical experience
In this paper we address the issue of the tailoring of Foresight with respect to themes or field,
The need to tailor policy instruments to the characteristics of the targeted field is grounded well in insights from research on the dynamics of innovation and knowledge generation.
In an early attempt to explore dependency between field dynamics and Foresight success the FORMAKIN project highlighted how Foresight works differently in close
and innovation system This section presents a concept for analysing the institutional arrangements characterising the R&i system in a given research field.
complemented by a thematic perspective focussing on a given field of research area. Barre''s analytical perspective builds on various theoretical concepts:
that research agencies and large PROS may prepare the overall strategic analysis in a field
in order to provide support in the definition of Foresight objectives within the field configurations. Foresight objectives have been defined by 27 as follows:
In the next section, we will analyse the search regimes that are shaping the development of research in the fields selected for the case studies.
On the contrary one can assume that dynamics are differentiated depending on fields and sectors 43. The first component of field configuration relates to Knowledge dynamics building on Bonaccorsi's initial proposal
which has distinguished three abstract properties explaining differences between science-led areas. Growth. The rate of growth differs widely between fields.
According to the‘World of Science'the average yearly growth of publications is around 1, %while e g. genomics has been growing for the last 10 years at 8,
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 236 For instance, the progressive sliding of the field of biocatalysis away from‘catalysis'within chemistry towards biotechnologies illustrates an actual reconfiguration of a current knowledge area that is combining splitting and merging
we explore the implications of field specificities on the Foresight activities taking place in the three governance arenas identified in Section 2. 1. We will present two illustrative cases:
then we will elaborate the designs of the Foresight exercises fitted to the specific Knowledge dynamics and institutional arrangements in these two fields. 5. 1. The case of genetically modified plants (GMP) After the completion of the human genome map in 2001,
the field of genomics sometimes labelled as post-genomics has diversified, exploring further the systemic epigenetic complexity of protein production beyond the one gene-one function paradigm that shaped the initial researches.
Two other key elements are contributing to the future of this research field. 1) EU institutions have had a prominent legal role by delaying the introduction of GM crop in Europe.
The research field of GM plant is characterised by a strong growth of the number of articles.
The cognitive proliferation that keeps blooming in the field of genomics is challenging some early applications of plant genomics research jeopardising thus their industrial applications.
towards a Tailored foresight In the field of GM plants research we find a strong growth rate
On a closer look the needs for Foresight can be specified on the base of the field analysis. It seems unlikely that the existence of consensual visions focussing on GM research alone will be sufficient
To address field specificities for Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies, we will examine first institutional arrangements and later on Knowledge dynamics. 5. 2. 1. N&n:
European commission has developed an active policy in the field of N&n policy. It displays explicitly among the EU policies one dedicated to Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies.
The European Technology platform for Nanoelectronics European Nanoelectronics Initiative Advisory Council (ENIAC) was launched in 2004 with the mission to bring together all leading players in the field
The high growth rate which characterises the field (the number of scientific publication has grown from 134%between 1998 and 2006) 46.
Growth in the field of N&n is considered as a divergent dynamics, which has also been deemed as displaying proliferation traits:
the field of N&n is characterised by an important intra-paradigmatic diversity. Research programmes share fundamental explanations but diverge on lower level hypotheses
and networking within the Nano-paradigm as well as between Nano-research and other fields. An example of the latter type is the Mona roadmap13 aiming at better integration between optics and nanotechnology.
Both field dynamics were described using the selected parameters. Based on this analysis conclusions for potential Foresight exercises with a relevant contribution for the development of these fields were sketched.
Even though the analysis of the two cases could only be done in a very preliminary manner it proved possible to derive meaningful conclusions for the design of Foresight exercises.
For each field specific lock in situations to be tackled by Foresight were revealed. Both cases have revealed a strong institutional complementarity reflecting an early alignment of academia
and for nanotechnology appears as an interesting way for releasing current tensions that block this field of research a strategic orientation that could fit in a grand challengesbaase R&i policy 18.
in the field of nanotechnology the need to foster the forming of new value networks around nano-products
Exercise aimed to provide recommendations for EU R&d efforts as input for FP7 and Strategic research Agendas in two fields (Nanomaterials & Photonics.
field and the changing relation between discovery and invention, in: Presentation at the PRIME Winter School on Emerging Nanotechnologies, Grenoble, 4 8 february, 2008.48 A. Bonaccorsi, G. Thoma, Institutional complementarity and inventive performance in nano science and Technology research
Continuing advances in fields of complexity, nonlinear dynamics, and chaos theory in scientific as well as business applications turn up in abstract sets on a regular basis.
thematic priorities referring to fields of science and technology; mission-oriented priorities referring to socioeconomic or technological goals;
At one stage in the UK it was proposed that university block funding for research (QR) from the Higher education Funding Councils should be allocated differentially between fields according to their correspondence with priorities emerging from the foresight programmes.
and that in any event, the interdependencies between fields meant that anomalous results could arise. For example Information technology could be an explicit priority
toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.2 T. Kuwahara, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Foresight in Japan, in:
In both fields, in particular the development of alternative scenarios help addressing uncertainties and diverse interconnections between many drivers.
In the security, sustainability and information society fields, stakeholders have the possibility to develop scenarios on
and six fields were discussed by workshops independently. Autonomous There is freedom in discussion for social scenarios in each field,
and the priority setting of science and technology based on technology foresight. Extensive There was an extensive engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry.
The attempt was not to make a global scan of the conducted foresight projects in these fields,
IRRIIS Scenario work was part of the European integrated project that provided improved understanding of the developments in the security field.
in assessing market potentials, in various fields of applied social research. Many sorts of research tool can be sources of the insights required for FTA.
than it is a free market of ideas of a level playing field. Matters have improved over recent years with more journals,
Thus the FTA field itself resembles many of the challenging problems, which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond
Dawson 20 after Nonka and Takeuchi 19.9 For a much fuller survey of the field,
involving overlapping fields of expertise, ill-defined, and so on as is the case for many of the core topics that FTA addresses design of such texts can be very challenging.
l p x E e g d e l w o n k t i c i l p x E Field building Linking explicit knowledge Dialogue Learning by doing Socialization
This is an expanding field (with elements of fashion and faddishness. There are fissures between those practitioners
In the UK, there had been major scenario work on strategies for developing a competitive edge in nanotechnology and literature/expert surveying of social issues associated with this field, in the early years of the present century.
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.2 W. Bell, J. K. Olick, An epistemology for the futures field:
toward integration of the field & new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.4 R. Johnston, Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis, in:
Both of these fields have been evolving since the 1960s. Similarly, the continuing pressure for the public participation in science and technology decision-making processes, elsewhere called a‘democratic deficit'and coming from Greenpeace, the Friends of the Earth, the ETC Group,
1. Rapid and accelerating technological progress in pervasive fields such as microelectronics, ICTS, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells and nanotechnologies. 2. Increased financial, trade and investment
or a field concerned and analysing how the phenomena reflected by the weak signals should be reacted on. 4 There remains some confusion about the definition of weak signal by various researchers and consultants.
Overall, the lists provide a fertile field for some real dramatic change scenarios centred on some key discontinuities.
and evaluating the impact of fta has emerged as a major preoccupation for the field in recent years, with the recognition that demonstrating impact is probably the greatest hurdle to the wider acceptance and use of FTA.
In this field a distinction has been developed between summative evaluation, focussed on measuring impact, and normative evaluation,
as much as researchers in various other fields identifying with and migrating to the FTA field.
In this scenario, several new applications of FTA have been identified 9. It is important to highlight that an effective Conference can provide a‘showcase'of the field,
providing an opportunity to display and talk up the latest FTA wares to those who may have need a to apply them.
field and the major challenges it faces. The context is favourable. Recent crises and the threat of major longer-term changes are fostering a view that business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges.
to demonstrate the diversity of application fields in which FTA METHODS are being used and to offer a glimpse into possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA.
only a restricted number of papers could be included in this Special issue highlighting the broad diversity of FTA application fields in response to grand challenges.
and systemic transformations in a diversity of application fields responding to grand challenges. The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
In this context, this introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 conference contributions and the diversity of application fields in
modeling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Abstract Purpose As in other socio-technical fields, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA METHODS are used in transport planning
and methods that can be allocated to the field of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA, see Scapolo and Porter (2008) for an overview).
In general, the decision to undertake a trip is motivated by very different factors drawn from all fields relevant in daily life,
Political interventions into this field have many effects within the system, but also various impacts outside the transportation sector.
In relation to the typology of levels of knowledge described in chapter 2 it can be concluded that models are focussed mainly on improving knowledge in the field of knowns.
A third example for this field is multi-criteria analysis (MCA), also termed multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) or multi-objective decision-making.
There are a huge variety of possible combinations in this field, which is illustrated briefly here with the help of two methodological examples:
and deepen knowledge in a certain field. They help identifying uncertainties, blind spots, contradictions or dilemmas.
Such a method could have been interviews with experts or stakeholders from different fields not only form the transport sector.
The latter can be highly relevant in complex socio-technical fields such as the transport sector. Such a problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS supports a better understanding of the potentials of different methods.
Risk Commission (2003), Ad hoc Commission on‘‘Revision of Risk analysis Procedures and Structures as well as of Standard Setting in the field of Environmental Health in the Federal republic of germany'',Final Report, Salzgitter Federal Radiological
other than some postgraduate foresight programs (provided on the basis that foresight is an interdisciplinary field grounded in a variety of social science),
so has limited some work in the foresight field, Ringland (2010) and Miller and Poli (2010),
The participants represented various fields of societal expertise such as government administration NGOS, energy business and researchers of various fields,
as well as representatives from various business areas. The results of the first questionnaire were sent in advance to those who had confirmed their participation to the workshop.
and create jobs in that field. In the evaluation of government foresight report by Wilenius (2011), attention was drawn to the fact that the government foresight report could have dug deeper into the economic implications of climate and energy policy
and decisions taken earlier 6. These emerging irreversibilities reduce the complexity of the situation 7. How do emerging irreversibilities affect the actors operating in the field?
and reshaped by research results, findings in other technical fields, or external forces. In general, expectations mould variation processes
and potentials of applications Articles in scientific journals Review articles that give an overview of the developments in the field Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Reports by NGO's Reports by government agencies Spokesperson statements
This opens up the possibility to use them as so-called field emitters to produce flat (even flexible) displays.
deposition), the prototype and the proof of compatibility brought to the field are emerging irreversibilities. These developments showed the academic
The oblivion of future studies in the urban planning field was denounced several years ago by practitioners and researchers (Isserman, 1985;
as well as private consultants conducting professional work in that field, are very reluctant to use future studies in their plans and projects.
These reasons explain to some extent the scant attention paid by urban planners in the last few decades to the revision and reinvention of futures studies as a field of practical knowledge.
innovative research efforts geared to bridging the gap between these two fields of knowledge. 4. How to reconcile territorial foresight and urban planning Despite its apparent benefits,
since most of the proposed steps have been used implicitly or explicitly in the urban planning field, its uniqueness emerges Figure 2 Linking foresight
and contrast instruments with parsimony in a little-explored field of knowledge. 6. Main findings
In 2010 she started to work as a researcher in the field of futures studies, focusing on the development of an innovative foresight approach to identify major trends
modelling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
along with the broader field of future studies) have come together to discuss and learn from each other.
As Johnston (2008) noted, the objective of the first of these seminars‘‘was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice between technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.''
''Furthermore, the number of studies focused on the connection between FTA and the field of social sciences and humanities has increased substantially (Barre'and Keenan, 2008.
Regarding the application of fta to other fields of knowledge and inquiry, Cagnin and Keenan (2008) have called attention to the need for a wider examination of FTA TOOLS and approaches.
In a rather unusual initiative within the general framework of legal research, The hague Institute for the Internationalisation of Law (Hiil) began in 2010‘‘a unique forward-looking exercise in the field of law:
At a more general level, the increasing availability of information in electronic form and the computing techniques and processes for exploiting such data constitute the most recent methodological developments in the field of FTA.
Still within the field of lawmaking, modelling systems could be combined with other FTA METHODS, such as backcasting and future verification procedures.
Important advantages derived from applying FTA to Law can also be found in the field of law enforcement,
drawing attention to the focal points of needed research in this field. 4. 2. 1 Evaluation, assessment and quality measurement.
The legislative preparatory phase may be depicted as a battle field, where a myriad of different actors and institutions try to orient specific laws according to their own different (and sometimes opposite) motivations, objectives and goals.
where sectors or fields fight for resources and where no one is ever likely to envisage their own demise,
For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,
According to this definition (but also interpreting other widely used descriptions of the field), nanotechnology is neither a specific technology nor is it a definite group of technologies.
Most activities that are considered as R&d in the field of nanotechnology are basic or applied research rather than technology development.
The segment of dnanotechnologyt that is closest to a widespread application is the field of dnanomaterialst.
Nanomaterials are an essential part of the overall field of nanotechnology. They can be T. Fleischer et al./
and/or technology. 4. 2. Roadmapping as a precursor of a TA process for specific nanotechnology applications The situation described above rather broad and largely unstructured field of investigation, mostly enabling technologies at early stages of development,
There is a growing need to connect current nanotechnology research activities with visions of applications as well as to structure this field of investigation.
Its central goal is to obtain a well-structured connection between R&d activities in this field and potential fields of application and ideas for products.
or finished roadmapping activities in or around the field of dnanotechnologyt see e g. 11 14.
Structure the research field visualise complexity;!Enable and teach interdisciplinary communication which for nanotechnology researchers is of special importance;!
Among other goals, the project aims at structuring the R&d field of nanomaterials, at building a knowledge base for further detailed investigations about the potential of nanomaterials, especially with regard to sustainable development,
and what further benefits of the roadmapping process beyond structuring the field of nanotechnology can be expected. 5. Summary
We propose an adaptation of the concept of science roadmapping and its application to selected segments of the overall field of nanotechnology.
inter alia, structuring the research field, linking research activities with visions of products and applications and supporting more reliable judgements on the realism of or hurdles for innovations discussed.
toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.
He has a background in physics with emphasis in the field of semiconductors and solar cells.
For example, in the multifocal model of Tuomi (2002), new technical functionalities and propensities are thrown in effect from the‘upstream'to a‘downstream'field of interacting social practices,
FTA's premises and principles ought to draw on those fields. Instead FTA seems to draw extensively on
by deferring to notions of philosophy and theory in a field where practical outcomes, based on learning;
Every field of expertise tends to have its own language: the success of expert elicitation will then depend crucially on the mental‘handshaking'between the interviewee and interviewer,
There is spill over into the fast moving fields of investment and money, where invention and innovation move at an alarming pace.
It was in that field that Meredith et al. 1989) developed the two-dimensional framework shown in Figure 1. Meredith's notions can help FTA practitioners'position methods to guide their role and use.
Descriptive modelling Logical positivist Empiricist Field studies Field experiments Structured interviewing Surveys Prototyping Physical modelling Laboratory experimentation Interpretive Action research Case studies Historical analysis
the assessing ability test was repeated this time using questions drawn from the interviewees'field of expertise.
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon Foresight methodologies and their implementation in science, technology and social fields.
Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303.
Tailoring foresight to field specificities. Futures 43, no. 3: 232 42. Schot, J, . and A. Rip. 1996.
The wide interest in foresight seems to be confirmed by the growing number of consulting companies and networks in the field. 1 On the other hand,
Scholars and practitioners in the field generally respond to such concern about the reliability of foresight by arguing that its role is not so much to predict the future,
as macro trends in the global environment are translated down into priorities for action in specific innovation fields.
glazing, and heat storage fields. Similarly, scenarios capture complexity through a multilevel hierarchy at Daimler,
where a specific research unit (an‘Innovation Field')has been established for each of the company business segments.
The main task of each Innovation Field is to elaborate a‘Picture of the Future'for its target segment
Discussion Our work relates to several fields of research in strategy and organisation. First, we define the concepts of‘boundary'uncertainty
and Phd graduates. 3. Roadmaps consist of representations of interconnected nodes of major changes and events in some selected fields of the external environment, such as science, technology, and markets.
His main research fields are foresight methodologies and strategic management of technology and innovation. He has presented on these themes at international conferences
Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303.
and mapping between fields from different data sources Calls (RFP) New proposals Continuation proposals Project reports Publications U s. DOE LDRD data ID number ID
(or other fields) that comprise that peak, thus revealing the content of the various peaks.
coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,
and indeed the entire activity field of organisations, has been conceptualised as relational practices, that is, as activities realised in relation to impulses stemming from users, other organisations,
For example, the long term in the context of a highly dynamic field, such as mobile Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and communication technology (ICT), differs vastly from the long term of a highly inert field, such as transportation infrastructure.
R&d perspective on a single technology or object Roadmapping single technologies from a certain perspective Enhancing organisational capacities in a certain technology field Building vision
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Technology Exercise covered the field of building services with an explicit focus on the future possibilities,
e g. integrated service provider Markets for new services and service providers in the field Built capacities for the construction of new integrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new
During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.
potential collaborators such as universities, funding agencies and the societal actors in the field of service science (Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
It identified the most important players in the field of service research internally and externally
and vision for the future Social/actor Identification of most important players in the field of service research internally and externally Capacities and methods for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally,
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
and securing the continuation of the developmental activities in the field. The temporal span of the roadmap was about 10 years, until the 2020s.
The first aspect was about building new client-oriented and environmentally sustainable practices in the field
for example, through the application of life cycle analysis. The second aspect was to open the field towards more efficient use of ICTS in the processes, such as solutions for distance-based monitoring, the use of building information models,
the construction machinery field should partake in the processes of the clients in new ways and seek long-lasting partnerships.
the key ideas accentuated the need to build a new kind of serviceorieente operation culture in a field that is considered quite conservative by the actors.
but also on the potential future employees in the field. Visionary ideas about technology-enabled services could also be one way to stimulate Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and environmentally sustainable practices in the field Capacities to understand and take part in the processes of the clients Building thematic roadmaps on four project themes:(
and (4) internationality Opening the field towards the efficient use of ICTS Fostering abilities to build long-lasting partnerships with the clients Using prospective argumentatiio to endorse the strategic aims From intense price competittio
towards integrated service packages Visionary Forming a new kind of service-oriented culture in a rather conservative field Fostering structural adaptabiliit for the adoption of new kinds of practices Building explicit visions in roadmap themes:(
and technology-enabled services in the field Constructing a horizontal anticipatory agency, especially through novel technology and services concepts Endorsing education
and international influences in the field Making visionary timelines for the adoption of new solutions Envisioning development projects based on the results this aspired culture.
In addition, the field of construction machinery should actively endorse a kind of horizontal anticipatory agency, for example, through novel technology and services concepts,
The systemic orientation was visible in the‘Russian doll'style of layered project structuure the project operated simultaneously on the layer of separate ICT applications, on the layer of ICT adoption in four fields (the experience
and the construction machinery roadmapwas about finding newbusiness directions in the network of actors in the field.
He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,
His other fields of expertise concern (i) organisational development enabled by new communicational methods and (ii) marketing issues of environmental technologies.
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