but also decision makers from research, industry, policy making and society. Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
983 countries (i e. the advanced industrial nations), almost all European countries, and many Asian and South american countries have conducted national foresight studies'.
Quick technology intelligence processes Alan L. Porter*,1 R&d, Search Technology, Inc.,4960 Peachtree Industrial Blvd.
12 Organizations, including Australian manufacturing, power, gas, investment & government. Low High tech Fit Tech Coverage Tech Concentration Hungry?
For example, manufacturing process management used to depend completely on tacit knowledge. A supervisor spent decades gaining familiarity with his (or occasionally her) machines, people, and processes.
There would be no bsix Sigmaq quality standards without empirical manufacturing process data and analyses thereof.
For examplle the Ministry of Trade and Industry has facilitated a so-called Foresight Forum (Könnölä, Brummer, and Salo 2007;
as well as some domains of their potential application in industry and society. This notwithstanding, the panellists were encouraged explicitly to deliberate how they would construe the scope of their panels.
Second, a deliberate decision was taken not to establish panels based on traditional industry clusters (i e. forest industries, construction), partly in view of earlier cluster-oriented studies:
for if the panels had been defined based on such sector boundaries, the risk of arriving at‘conventional'results might have been greater.
A further step towards ensuring the balance of panels was that each panel had two chairmen, one from academia and one from industry.
and industrial sectors) could be addressed duly. It is noteworthy that the dates for the two initial panel meetings were fixed by the panel chairmen before the panellists were selected:
to (1) major changes in the global context,(2) growing needs in Finnish industry and society, or (3) anticipated scientific and technological achievements.
by doing so, seek to respond to societal and industrial needs. Items in the template included questions on (i) what scientific fields and technological areas the focus areawas linked to,(ii)
what societal and industrial needs would be addressed by strengthening the focus area,(iii) what possibilities the focus areawould offer for the concrete application of related knowledge,
and of knowledge in this focus area of competence respond to the societal and industrial needs in 2015?).
1) The panels were oriented purposely not along the lines of industrial sectors or any other clear taxonomy.
for example, advances in relation to forest-related industries were discussed in panels on Environment and energy, Bio-expertise and bio-society, Materials,
relations to emerging societal and industrial needs, with illustrations of future possibilities by way of concrete manifestations (such as innovatiions) Often,
Technology and Innovation7 in fields that are important to the future of Finnish society and business and industry.
and information and communication industry and services; built environment. Although the establishment of these centres cannot be attributed to Finnsight,
Furthermore, in 2007 the Ministry of Trade and Industry started a process towards the establisshin a National Innovation strategy,
For instance, Finnsight synthesised consensual information about overarchiin developments that were relevant to many organisations in the R&i system (e g. universities, industrial federations, private enterprises.
See http://www. aka. fi/en-gb/A/for details. 3. Tekes provides project-oriented funding to universities, polytechnics, research institutions and industrial firms,
with the aim of promoting technological breakthroughs and innovations in all industrial sectors and services. See http://www. tekes. fi/en/community/Home/351/Home/473 for details. 4. The funding decisions of the Academy of Finland are taken by external scholars (usually university professors) who serve on its councils
reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1, no. 1 2: 70 88.
sociocultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government. Continuing the call for the FTA COMMUNITY to move on from identifying priorities,
or an industry is the knowledge base from which it draws its competence in refining, developing and creating
-or multidiscipllinarit for frontier science, one has analysed the need for inter-institutional linkages for problem-solving knowledge (collaborations between university and industry or between researchers and clinicians,..
or thanks to interdisciplinary or intersectoral cooperation (e g. research contracts between academia and industry). Moreover, the combined analysis of scientific and technological knowledge brings a more original outcome in the sense that it provides an adequate framework for analysing researchers'coactivity,
whose intensities reflect the institutional complementarity between industry and academia within a given techno-scientific area.
plant genomics is based a science discipline where industrial companies play a major part, which means that it is regulated by a firm IPR regime. 5. 1. 1. GMP:
At European level, the strategic orientation of plant genomics is led by de facto industry. The European Technology platform (ETP)‘‘Plants for the Future''is a stakeholder forum for the plant sector,
1) private collaborative research projects funded by industry and performed by academia. This first important stream is one main engine for the institutional complementarity discussed below.
The cognitive proliferation that keeps blooming in the field of genomics is challenging some early applications of plant genomics research jeopardising thus their industrial applications.
plant genomics development is based a science activity led by industrial companies. This domain displays a strong institutional (i e. inter sectoral) complementarity between industry and academia.‘‘
‘‘Plants for the Future'',the above-mentioned European Technology platform is an example of coordinating institution for this collaboration.
of citations within cluster Platform cited within scientific publications Words network Number of words Persons network Number of persons Academic patenting Industrial publications Co-active researchers'collaborations
and strong industrial push on the one hand and sceptical citizens and consumers and strict regulation on the other.
Steering is done in an integrated manner through the Technology platform with industry as the dominant driving force.
The immediate conclusion for Foresight is need the for consensus building among stakeholders from industry and civil society for a further development of the European research and innovation system.
It has produced a Strategic research Agenda (SRA) created through the concerted efforts of experts from industry, academia,
Research in the domain of N&n is driven industry and science based. It is characterised by a strong coactivity (publications'authors that are as well as inventors) and an intense institutional complementarity between academia and industry.
The crucial role played by shared platforms is illustrated by the limited number of N&n clusters which appear on the world map 48.
Mona involved 300 experts with different backgrounds from industry and academia. Cf. http://www. ist-mona. org/about/roadmap. asp. 14 http://www. nanologue. net/.
References 1 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, Minerva 46 (3)( 2008) 285 315.2 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, M. Keenan,
Towards a Theory of innovation and Interactive learning, Pinter, London, 2009.11 F. Malerba, L. Orsenigo, Technological regimes and sectoral patterns of innovative activities, Industrial and Corporate Change 6 (1
rethinking the role of policy, Enterprise and Innovation Management Studies 1 (1)( 2000) 73 102.17 O. Marsili, The Anatomy and Evolution of Industries:
Technological change and Industrial Dynamics, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, 2001.18 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, Challenging Europe's Research Rationales for the European research area
reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2009) 70 88.27 T. Ko nno la, V
industrial activities in wireless communications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (9)( 2004) 897 912.41 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, in:
. which directed the first industry-wide futures research program, the Trend Analysis Program of the American Council of Life insurance.
and interactions among all these categories (see Fig. 1). Organizations that focus on their own industries
or manufacturing mechanisms is one of the latest arrivals to the abstract sets. Cultural topics are of huge importance in the abstract set
This type of clustering allows companies to gain ideas from other industries or other product domains.
When abstracts on particular topics (such as wireless technologies or privacy concerns) constitute clusters that cross industry-domain categories (such as health
Scanning processes can serve as a form of peripheral vision (to avoid being blindsided by events outside one's industry),
rising obesity rates add up to a growing industry in plus-size design, I. D. 65 (2004 March/April) 61 63.
An influential approach emerging from industrial ex ante project selection methods was developed by the Australian National Laboratory CSIRO based upon a matrix of attractiveness and feasibility.
Portfolios not projects lessons from industry: Research on prioritisation practice in the world's leading research companies in the USA and Europe has indicated that corporate labs had moved away from the traditional, discipline-based organisation 16.
This process could be seen as analogous to the emergence of technology platforms in industry-led public programmes.
which gradually shifted their stress from straightforward priorities to an emphasis upon network building on the industry-academic nexus. New priorities can themselves have structural implications;
This was led industry and focused upon reorientation of the national innovation system 18. Structurally oriented foresight most often seems to be invoked at times of change.
this approach is understood as concentrations of industries supporting each other. A cluster was identified originally by means of analysis of market interactions between industries along value-chains.
However, the approach also emphasises the means by which framework conditions affect complex linkages within and between industries and the influence of social, economic and cultural factors.
The cluster approach has also been applied in analysing non-market interactions resulting in for example, knowledge clusters.
effects of implementing the science policy priority for biotechnology in The netherlands, Research policy 15 (1986) 253 268.16 R. Coombs, L. Georghiou, A new industrial ecology, Science 296 (2002
which occurs when various interest groups (industry, academia, government, NGOS, etc.)and different geographical areas (countries, regions, etc.
industry, associations and public organisations of the five Nordic countries. EU: IRRIIS scenario workd 19 Informative Identification of emerging safety and security issues in an EU project to ensure the safety of critical infrastructures.
Extensive There was an extensive engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry. T. Ko nno la et al./
Autonomous Each TRM team consists of around 10 technology experts from industries, academic circles and research circles.
Extensive There are broad engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry. National Technology foresight in China Informative Understanding future S&t developments and needs.
academia and industry have participated in NTFC. Technology foresight towards 2020 in China Informative TF2020 aims to provide necessary information for making long term strategy for science and technology development in China,
Extensive Diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry are very active in the process of TF2020. a Commissioned by the Nordic council. b Commissioned and conducted by VTT Technical research Centre. c Commissioned
the‘‘Technology Trajectory''concept developed by FISTERA was used by industry and academia as a‘‘thinking tool''.
reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 70 88.11 O. Helmer, Looking Forward:
to understanding and guiding the shared knowledge creation of key actors (industry, academia and policymakers) in the context of Nordic foresight activities 21,22.
Jorgensen, Technology foresight in the nordic countries, A Report to the Nordic Industrial Fund, Oslo, Center for Innovation and Commercial Development, Risoe-R-1362 (EN),
, Integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies, Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176.25 Advisory Group on Nanotechnology, New dimensions for manufacturing:
a UK strategy for nanotechnology, London, Department of Trade and Industry, 2002 while the original webpage for this text widely cited as‘‘The Taylor Report''has been removed,
i) sociocultural evolution,(ii) corporate industrial activity and (iii) government interests. While there has been a great deal of emphasis on the development
sociocultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government. Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA COMMUNITY that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in governance.
Globalisation and its offspring glocalisation have moved centre stage and now present three pillars corporate industrial activity,
Some features may be the inclusion of the principles of industrial ecology and its near relative ecological economics.
and stakeholder approach has various implications for the relationships between the society, corporate industrial activities and public governance.
Regarding the relationships between corporate industrial activities and society, the this new approach brought the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) concept onto the agenda,
How FTA ACTIVITY can support such moves must be set against the three pillars of corporate industrial activity, sociocultural evolution and government interests,
and Development in 1992 23 by representatives of 179 countries) and is at the heart of the quest for new forms of global governance. 5. Corporate industrial activity
i) there is a clear lack of comparative and cross-industry studies and (ii) there are even fewer studies that have concentrated explicitly on the business case for CSR as a driver of corporate sustainability management 30.5.2.
and standards for responsible business conduct in a variety of areas including employment and industrial relations;
Factors such as public awareness of industrial and technological risk, growing instances of social resistance to new technologies,
and illustrate how FTA is embedded in the background to the influences globalisation and glocalisation on the three pillars of corporate and industrial activity,
More recently, industry and retailers in some countries have taken independent initiatives to develop standards and health related schemes.
and industry in developing human capacity and enabling the literacy of citizens at large? The question is especially relevant as globalisation must offer opportunities for All in fact,
Thus issues underlying social reaction to new technologies and the undisclosed ways in which industries take decisions must be resolved.
A new global setting of the world economy is defining the framework for operation of the industrial sector both inside the national boundaries and internationally.
The parallel emergence of the notions of industrial ecology in 1973 when Evan 40 defined industrial ecology as‘a systematic analysis of industrial operations including factors like:
by an analogy relating industrial systems to natural systems, a model for a desirable transition to cleaner production:
The organisation of industry on this principle with the waste products of some branches of industry providing raw material for others means in effect using natural processes as a model,
for in them the resolution of all arising contradictions is the motive force of progress (Wikipedia's‘History of Industrial Ecology')Industrial ecology was later popularised by Frosch and Gallopoulos 42.
The marriage of the principles of industrial ecology and those of ecological economics, and its influence on globalisation, glocalisation and governance,
By engaging actively in shaping the move from the current paradigm of‘growth'economics to that of ecological economics and industrial ecology
A Soviet View, Progress Publishers, Moscow, 1977, pp. 99 110.42 R. A. Frosch, N e. Gallopoulos, Strategies for Manufacturing, Scientific American 261 (3
Increased tensions for R&d ownership Solid waste limits industrial activities and life in urban centres Capital shift from‘‘W to E''to‘‘E to W''Continued rise of Asia as economic,
preparing for wild cards in the civil aircraft and asset-management industries, Long Range Planning 42 (1)( 2009) 23 41.
''This diffusion process will be aided by the further development of an‘FTA industry'.'An important lesson for strengthening the impact of fta was drawn fromthe evaluation literature.
housing and industry) in cutting down the GHG's. Other background questions related to societal conditions that affect the way different aspects of climate policy would be received in the Finnish society.
Hence the most important information needs concerned possible development paths in key energy consuming sectors (transport, housing and industry), the additional questions concentrated on these issues.
and energy use of industry, heating of buildings and transport. These three sectors constitute the majority of the energy use in Finland:
industry (50 per cent), heating of buildings (21 per cent), transport (17 per cent) and miscellaneous uses (13 per cent)( Statistics Finland, 2009.
considerable changes in attitudes and habits of both the citizens as well as different industries are required. The areas that will face the biggest pressure to change are energy intensive industry,
polluting energy industry (especially peat energy), transport and logistics, construction, meat production and travelling. As for the public's approval for the actions needed to prevent the unwanted effects of climate change
most often mentioned hindrances in public opinion were cynicism (what a small country such as Finland does,
and a genuine will of most members of society to work for the environment, obedience of the law, good technological know-how, abundant resources of biofuels and the infrastructure from forest to industry already in place (as a heritage from paper and pulp industry),
relying on heavy industry Economic growth Stable growth Stable growth Slow growth Stable growth Basis of economic structure (industry) Energy scarce service sector,
high-tech products and high skill-level services most important sources of income, no energy intensive industry Demand and supply of small-scale local products and‘‘at home''services has increased significantly.
some export of these goods (and jobs in these industries) still exist Strong agriculture-and forest industry with many innovative high-value products (not just grain and paper) Both knowledge-and resource as well as energy
forest industry and mining Buildings Very strict norms on energy consumption for both old and new buildings,
and industry transport needs diminished. Everyday personal traffic increasingly by foot, by bike or by improved public transport systems.
Wasteful behaviour in both the private consumers and industry (especially retail) is considered undesirable Environmental values and understanding of nature's processes highly valued.
industrial ecology Search for innovations to boost economic growth and improve the state of the environment VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 311 numbers can also easily be considered as neutral
energy use of some industrial processes, are made according to what we know to be possible today and in the near future.
As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,
or an industry (as in the case of chip manufacturing) should follow for a certain period (say, 10 years).
and thus, will have an impact in all areas of economic activities (examples are the materials production industry, pharmaceutical industry, electronics industry).
Although nanotechnology is still in its exploration phase, industry, governments and research institutes already have high stakes in the future application.
which means that it enables different industries to improve their products, but will not likely (at least not at the short-term) make products on its own.
Fig. 5. Architecture of suspended nanotube memory 16.12 Lithography is a common method used in the computer chip manufacturing industry to produce desired structures in materials. 13 The research agenda on nanotubes have,
However, the fact that nanotubes offer great promises for various industries is acknowledged. 3. 1. 2. Technological field After the discovery of the single-walled nanotube in 1993,
now that could, in theory, put a lot of the $40 billion magnetic disk industry out of business. Q It is clear that two applications are highlighted for expected short-term commercial use
Important to mention from a market perspective (computer chip industry) is the following, as articulated by Collins and Avouris 23:
Q These developments call for new techniques to continue the ongoing miniaturisation in the computer chip industry.
and consulting arm of CMP Cientifica, providing global nanotechnology business intelligence and consulting services to industry and investors worldwide.
buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes
bthe proprietary manufacturing approach will enable for the first time the ultra-large scale integration (ULSI) of carbon nanotube-based devices in a deep sub-micron semiconductor fabrication line.
handling and use of nanoparticles in industrial processes and products, as well as in consumer products. The results are expected to indicate risks to workers and consumers,
Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Apart from the concerns on the possible toxicity, industry started to produce nanoparticles with a strong growing increase in capacity.
gives a push on the market to come up with new solutions to continue the ongoing miniaturisation in the computer chip industry.
This fact changed the market side in the sense that a robust player emerged within this industry.
He has been a consultant for the European commission, the PAGE 334 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Inter-American Development Bank and the United nations Industrial Development Organization.
and measurement systems optimized for the Industrial Age models of production. According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society,
and to trigger wider applications in a number of industries. Enabling technologies often have no direct easily recognisable connection with applications
Globalisation has altered the roles and influence of national policies and industries, political paradigms have changed, EU legislation and international competition leave less room for direct governmental activities in many technological fields.
scientists and industry representatives that nanotechnology may or will contribute to economic prosperity and sustainable development (for an up-to-date and comprehensive overview see Ref. 3). On the other hand,
and structuring to an industrial production level or about the health and environmental hazards that actually can arise from nanomaterials,
It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
In short, the methodical challenge for our program is to develop roadmaps that combine the disaggregation level of a product roadmap with the timeframe and the inherent uncertainties of strategic roadmaps for branches or industries.
nanomaterials experts and knowledge transfer organisations will build branch specific roadmaps for three different industrial sectors on
SME are important drivers of some European industrial sectors and potential users of nanomaterials-based innovations.
how the experiences with technology roadmapping in companies or industries can be adapted for our T. Fleischer et al./
Nanotechnology is considered mainly as one of the technological developments to have far-reaching impacts on the industries of this century.
and industry officials that their questioning of support for fundamental technology support is muted...Just as engineers first scoffed at them (roadmaps, T. F),
from industry to public policy, IPTS Report 73 (2003. 8 J. D. Linton, S. T. Walsh, Introduction.
the emerging microsystems and top-down nanosystems industry, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (1/2)( 2004) 161 185.12 S. Walsh, J. Elders, International Roadmap on MEMS, Microsystems, Micromachining and Top Down Nanotechnology, MANCEF, Naples
who argued that the industrial era of the past and today's ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715475 http://www. tandfonline. com
and illustrates this using the expansion of mobile phone industry as an example. The paper then makes the claim that technological change can be understood as an especially human form of Bergsonian élan vital or creative flux.
and almost the first five decades of its history, industry actively discouraged such use. This social use of the telephone was invented basically by housewives in the USA, in particular, by those in the Midwest, around the first decade of the twentieth century.
Messaging becomes a key driver for development and profit in the telecom industry, and telecom operators start to write‘messaging'in their strategic plans and marketing material.
For example, data on phone calls or callers could not have been used to predict industry developments when short messaging became the dominant source of growth in the industry.
Similarly historical data on national accounts can tell very little about future economic developments, as the data are collected on categories that used to be important in the industrial economies and value production models of the twentieth century.
Although many researchers believe that methodologically sound research requires that they stick to well-known and frequently used historical data sets,
'when we assume an industrial age model of factory-based production, industrial era life patterns and health services,
In other words, assuming that the industrial society remains as it used to be, extrapolations from demographic data lead to an unsustainable state.
Notes on contributors Denis Loveridge is an Honorary Visiting professor at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR) at the Manchester Business school after 44 years in industry.
but highlights the forceful presence of expectations in industrial and professional networks. The sociology of expectations has detailed three forces of expectations in the dynamics of technical change:
Their example is the Clean Urban Transportation Europe project in the UK where industrial partners like Daimler-chrysler and BP,
Energy efficiency in industrial process technologies. Technovation 26, no. 9: 1029 44. Mackenzie, D. 1990. Inventing accuracy:
The social shaping of industrial innovation. Social Studies of Science 18, no. 3: 483 513.
matching environmental uncertainty Riccardo Vecchiato a a Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy Published online:
matching environmental uncertainty Riccardo Vecchiato*Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy This paper explores how strategic decision-makers select
In this paper, we focus on BASF in the chemical industry, Daimler in the automotive industry, Philips in the consumer electronics industry,
and Siemens in the information and communication industry. These cases are extremely explanatory: on the one hand, the selected firms operated in distinct industries that underwent considerably different (kinds of) drivers of change and conditions of uncertainty.
On the other hand, they started long ago to systematically engage in strategic foresight and thus progressively designed and refined their approaches to handling environmental uncertainty.
and the main drivers of change in each industry of our sample firms since the early 1990s.
and refers to the inability to understand how the components of the environment might change (e g. in the case of the automotive industry, the driver of change of ecological concern by public policy-makers in Europe:
which identifies the key forces (sectors) that govern competition in an industry. These forces are competitors, customers, suppliers, potential incomers, substitute products,
and Siemens operated in different industries that underwent considerably different (kinds of) drivers of change and conditions of uncertainty.
On the one hand, we examined the historical evolution of each industry of these firms since they started their foresight efforts and in particular throughout the 2000s.
we collected publicly available data on the industry and the selected firms, including historical annual reports, financial analysts'reports, conference presentations by top managers,
and industry who had extensive knowledge of each company and its industry. Interviews were structured semi
Analysis began with detailed written accounts and schematic representtation of the historical evolution of the industry of each firm.
BASF and Daimler operated in mature and global industries (chemicals and automotive) where the main drivers of change stemmed from the macro environment;
on the other hand, Philips and Siemens operated in fastpaace industries (consumer electronics and information and communication technology (ICT))
Foresight in mature industries Environmental uncertainty and foresight approach The chemical and automotive industries throughout the last decade were typically mature and global industries where trajectories of technologies
The boundaries between the micro and macro environments were blurred in these industries; the huge number of drivers of change in the PEEST landscapes, their strong mutual influences,
The industry has also been exposed increasingly to rising raw material prices, steep rises in energy costs, growing ecological concerns,
Many of these features may be easily found in the automotive industry as well, where the recent financial and economic crisis has exacerbated structural problems of global overcapacity.
All the main customer industries of the company (the manufacturing, agriculture, and construction industries) are included, so that conclusions can be drawn about the resulting demand for chemical producct and about the overall industry's internal adaptation, in terms of consolidation, mergers and acquisitions, divestments, etc.
Subsequent foresight activities address specific regions (the EU, the USA, and Asia) and countries, by breaking down global scenarios into the firm's main sectors and business areas,
Foresight in fast-paced industries Environmental uncertainty and foresight approach The consumer electronics and ICT industries
The growing pace of technology developmment and the continuous emergence of disruptive changes in customer needs have contributed together to greatly increased dynamism in these industries and for these firms.
which major companies of different industries coped with increasing environmental uncertaiinty More generally, our findings offer the broad outline of a conceptual framework regarding how decision-makers match strategic foresight with environmental uncertainty.
and thus to shed light on the concept of‘boundary uncertainnty'Let us consider the chemical and automotive industries first.
However, what Daimler (and BASF) could not know in the face of the main drivers of change affecting its industries was how these drivers could evolve (e g. the length and strength of the financial crisis:
state uncertainty), how they could affect the industry structure and the competitive position of the firm (e g. the decrease of global demand:
who from the beginning has full awareness about the rules of the game and the cards in the pack (i e. boundaries of the business identity of the key components of the industry).
and response uncertainty evolution of the key components of the industry, effect on the organisation,
Continuous drivers of change typically affect mature and global industries where trajectories of technologies and customer needs are established well
which surrounds the industry. 7 The second category is‘discontinuous'drivers of change that bring about boundary uncertainty, by leading to completely new kinds of products, players,
and new customer needs stemming from emerging or growing industries. Discontinuous and continuous drivers of change entail very different and peculiar implications for strategic foresight
Let us consider the case of continuous drivers of change and the chemical and automotive industries first.
Given their prior experience in the chemical and automotive industries, they were able to directly address uncertainty regarding the evolution of the main components of the business and the impact on the organisation (effect uncertainty) and the best options for coping with these drivers (response uncertainty).
we engaged in anticipating the likely structure of the industry and our competitive position as these could be affected by alternative paths of evolution of drivers of change.
and decision-makers have gained a sound grasp of the main components of their industry, they might start using traditional foresight techniqque (e g. roadmaps in the case of Philips)
and start-ups) in order to identify the new components of the industry (see, for instance, Mendonça and Sapio 2009).
Discontinuous drivers of change typically stem from technology-driven industries which are at the initial stage of their life cycle.
mature industries might also be affected by technologgica discontinuities bringing about major shifts in the boundaries of the business.
That might Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 794 R. Vecchiato be the case in the medium/long-term future of the automotive industry itself,
However, much additional research must be done for improving and expanding this conceptual framework through the study of environmental uncertaiint and foresight activities in other industries and firms.‘
we do not mean that mature industries might not be affected by‘discontinuous'drivers of change: a new technological paradigm might be established in mature industries as well,
bringing the life cycle to the initial stages and bringing about major shifts in the boundaries of the business.
that these drivers are quite infrequent in mature industries. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 795 Notes on contributor Riccardo Vecchiato is Assistant professor at the Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering of Politecnico di Milano
Italy. In 2005, he was a visiting researcher at the Manchester Business school, University of Manchester.
Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: The case of some Italian districts.
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