He is developing EU and national projects related to sustainable manufacturing, RTDI priority-setting and regional coordination as well as joint programming and also supporting policy-making through the early identification of weak signals of emerging issues.
Denis Loveridge is Honorary Visiting professor at Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR), Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, after 44 years in industry.
Lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems. Futures. Cagnin, C. H. 2005. An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
Techniques for analysing industries and competitors. Newyork: Free Press. Porter, M. E. 1985a. Competitive advantage: Creating and sustaining superior performance.
but also much data from industry and academia. This will allow us to broaden the technology intelligence that forms the context of our maps
especially by increasing the innovation activities in industry through technology platforms, stretching technoloogica capabilities of companies, and connecting research-based theoretical knowledge with practical knowledge through applications.
and an anticipatory agency in the whirl of changes that RTOS, industries, and national innovation systems face.
were explicitly about renewing an already well-established industry with locked-in practices. The building services roadmapwas about renewing the research emphases atvtt,
Lecture at the roadmapping course for DIIRD (Department of Industry, Innovation and Regional development), Victoria, Australia.
the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science & Technology (AIST Japan), Uppsala University (Sweden),
We especially attended to industrial players, identifying the leading organisations active in each of the different data sources.
processing, and manufacturing processes. What sort of exposure issues are there? How do they fit within the risk and regulation landscape?
GA. He is also Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering, and of Public policy, at Georgia Tech, where he continues as the co-director of the Technology policy and Assessment Center.
A new paradigm for understanding industrial innovation. In Open innovatiion Researching a new paradigm, ed. H. W. Chesbrough, W. Vanhaverbeke,
and fishery industries into a unified entity''is an example of this type, and may require a total review by experts.
resources, and environment 01-D Energy-relateda 03-H Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment 05-A Geo-diagnosis technologyb 05-B
The success of research policy is dependent on the alignment of a broad range of relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, politics, and society.
and are therefore a crucial element in a responsible allocation of public funds to research efforts in academia and industry.
and similar strategy processes and involve stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and society. The overall aim lies in making foresight results as usable and useful as possible in the work of research policy makers and in turning the transfer into an integral part of policy development.
Additional results might be community building between stakeholders from various disciplines in academia as well as strengthening of networks between academia and industry. 4. Characteristics and use of strategic dialogues As a highly flexible tool
The process should be constructed to make maximum use of the concentration of knowledge about one particular industry that such a trade body representative has.
stakeholders in industry and academia might be aware and receptive of them since they have had already a stake in shaping them PAGE 22 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 be discussed
Secondly, strategic dialogues have been conducted on a larger scale involving outside stakeholders, typically from academia, industry, and society in addition to politics, combining their perspectives at an early stage to explore promising pathways for politic decision making.
Industry stakeholders may be small to medium-sized enterprises as well as global multinational companies, industry associations or research partnerships.
External stakeholders are being identified in the course of the process based on input from political stakeholders complemented by input from our own research as well as established networks into academia and industry.
Part of the workshop could also be to reflect on possible roles of academia, industry, politics and society and to develop recommendations for further supporting activities.
industry and society in identifying practical steps towards addressing the situation (step 5). This wider involvement is currently in progress in phase 3 of the Strategic dialogue
5. 3 Strategic dialogue to develop a model for public private partnerships A third example of a successful strategic dialogue was the definition of a novel type of innovation cluster across academia and industry implemented as public private partnerships.
and industry as well as politics and researched internationally (steps 1, 2, 3). Key issues were crystallized in a dialogue process with the BMBF (step 4) combined with consolidated results from semi-structured interviews with 40 experts
and decision makers from academia and industry (step 5 and preparation of step 6). The results were addressed then in a tightly structured workshop with about 35 experts (step 6 with elements of step 7). Points of agreement became transparent as well as issues of potential conflict.
Many international organisations, including the European commission (2004a, b, 2003), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006), the United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007),
B Industry of Nanosystems and Materials; B Living Systems; B Medicine and Health; B Rational Use of Natural resources;
B Manufacturing Systems; and B Safety. The thematic area‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''covers the following five technology areas:
representing all leading R&d and industrial centres. More than 150 experts were recruited to assess development prospects for the Rational Use of Natural resources area.
''‘Technologies for environmentally safe processing and recycling of consumer and industrial waste''and‘‘Geoinformation database of forest fires in Russia, allowing monitoring of fire situations in real time''.
B Industry of Nanosystems; B Transportation and Aerospace Systems; B Rational Use of Nature Resources;
and recycling of consumer and industrial waste 96.7 2016 Contributing to dealing with social problems (79.5 percent) Improving positions on international markets (40.9 percent) Technologies for processing
and B environment (i e. air, biodiversity and specially protected nature areas, dangerous natural phenomena, industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage,
As an example, below are presented priorities for innovation-based development of the‘‘industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage''sphere:
B designing sectoral strategies for industries; B regional priorities for innovation development; and B priorities for international S&t co-operation.
design of large-scale innovation projects identification of research projects to be funded within federal and sectoral goal-oriented S&t programmes designing sectoral strategies for industries regional priorities for innovation development priorities
United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007), Technology foresight Summit Workbook, United nations Industrial Development Organization, Budapest. University of Joensuu (2010),‘Foresight for the development of forest sector in Finland till 2020'',Future Forum on Forests of Finland.
In addition to the resource-based theory, the modern emphasis is on network approaches to industrial strategy
Competitive intelligence is also important to retain a dynamic understanding of the technology trajectories of the surrounding industrial environment (Nelson, 1997.
Therefore, it is not possible generate a viable and appropriate technology strategy without a perception of the changing technical capability of our own industry and that of related industries (Powell and Bradford, 2000.
In addition, after the Delphi Austria foresight process, the results of the Austria Technology Delphi were reclassified also according to the standard classifications of industry
i e. the NACE classification in order to facilitate their use by industrial economists and policy makers and to propose an explanation of the old structures/high performance paradox (Tichy, 1999;
which is accepted an EU industrial classification of industry. Therefore, the standard classification framework provides an easy way to take an aggregated
and industry development from foresight collected from all over the world. In the foresight experience of small countries such as the foresight activity conducted in Austria named‘‘Delphi Austria,
Tichy, G. 1999),‘The innovation potential and thematic leadership of Austrian industries: an interpretation of the technology Delphi with regard to the old structure/high-performance paradox'',Institute of technology Assessment, Vienna, available at:
focused largely on science-industry relations, and moving from forecasting activities and expert-driven identification processes towards the inclusion of expertise from a broader range of disciplines, a wider range of stakeholders and sometimes also the knowledge of lay people.
He is developing EU and national projects related to sustainable manufacturing, RTDI priority-setting and regional coordination as well as joint programming,
Doctoral dissertation, New york state School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Cornell University, 1979.55 T. Lawson, Developments in economics as realist social theory, Rev.
for product lifecycle management, Technical Report, STR/04/058/SP, Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology, 2004.3 T. A. Vijay, Challenges in product strategy
the diffusion of CNC-technology in the machine tool industry, Small Bus. Econ. 9 (4)( 1997) 361 381.11 T. H. Lee, N. Nakicenovic, Life cycle of technology
Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2005.13 C. M. Chu, Using technology life cycle to analysis the developing trend of thin-film photovoltaic industry, Ph d. dissertation, National Central
Inf. 9 (2006) 160 166.18 C. M. Chu, Using technology life cycle to analysis the developing trend of thin-film photovoltaic industry, Ph d. dissertation, National Central
. dissertation, National University of Tainan Institutional Repository, Taiwan, 2007.27 C. H. Yeh, A comparative analysis of Taiwan's CRT and TFT-LCD industries based on the viewpoints of industrial
Study on the technique development of TFT-LCD industry-based on patent analysis and life cycle theory, Ph d. dissertation, Chun Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2003.30 A l. Porter, J
Futures research methodology Version 3. 0.,Millennium Project, WFUNA, WASHINGTON DC, 2009, Chapter 8. 35 E t. Popper, B. D. Buskirk, Technology life cycles in industrial markets, Ind.
Alan Porter is a Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering, and of Public policy, at Georgia Tech, where he remains Co-director of the Technology policy and Assessment Center.
and has won the status of a dnatural lawt of technology diffusion due to its considerable success as an empirically descriptive and heuristic device capturing the essential changing nature of technologies, products, markets and industries.
and has won the status of a dnatural lawt of technology diffusion due to its considerable success as an empirically descriptive and heuristic device capturing the essential changing nature of technologies, products, markets and industries.
and have applied for a patent for a genetically evolved general-purpose controller that is superior to mathematically derived controllers commonly used in industry. 5. Conclusions
Manag. 7 (1995) 417 431.50 J. W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1961.51 J. D. Sterman, Business Dynamics:
He obtained an MSC degree in Industrial Engineering from Sabanci University. His research interests are exploration and analysis of dynamically complex systems under deep uncertainty.
or prevent certain undesirable dynamics. 3. 2. Adaptive planning for airport development The air transport industry operates in a rapidly changing context.
which are industrial users, commercial users, horti-/agricultural users, and households. It is possible to name two major supply options for all actor groups,
a tool of growing importance to policy analysts in government and industry, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 64 A. Geyer, F. Scapolo, European manufacturing in transition the challenge of sustainable development:
and define research and innovation agendas of established science industry networks. The aim of the paper is to show what problems/challenges with regard to the innovation system have been addressed and
and technology assessment studies included actors and knowledge mainly from science and industry 1, 19 22.
anticipatory activities included a wide range of stakeholders from politics, academia, industry and NGOS, as well as independent parties cf. 23.
The early individual vision of Eric Drexler, who envisioned a distant future vision of molecular manufacturing in the late 1980s,
and industry were involved in developing the vision. Nearly all of the experts from academia came from the natural sciences and engineering.
These experts and stakeholders came from industry from NGOS, from the physical and biological sciences, engineering, medicine, social sciences, economics, and philosophy.
application-driven research will produce new scientific discoveries and economic optimization leading to new technologies and industries.
documenting its potential prospects from the perspective of various sectors of industry, describing future applications,
conducting studies on specific nano-subfields and by bringing together relevant actors from science and industry through workshops and expert discussion 6. Technology intelligence, technology assessment,
They were established to bridge the gap between science and industry from the very beginning of R&d activities 48.
and interests of industry and on the transfer of knowledge between industry and natural sciences. By conducting these FTA on behalf of the BMBF
the VDI-TZ built and stabilized actor networks representing industry and science. 7 These early network activities did not involve other ministries or government agencies,
value chain-oriented collaborative projects with partners from science and industry. They focus on the following areas:
Especially industrial players such as Bayer, Degussa, Siemens, Zeiss, industry-oriented organizations of applied science such as Fraunhofer-Institutes,
448 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 Nanolux (optics industry, nanotechnology for energy efficient lighting.
Nanochem (production and safety assessment of nanomaterials for industrial applications. In 2003 the Office of Technology assessment at the German Parliament conducted a broad technology assessment on nanotechnology 49.
a women's association and a medical practitioners'organization, trade unions, churches, academia, industry and government bodies (such as federal ministries and agencies as well as ministries on the regional and state level) discussed their positions 51.
In summary, for over a decade, the German variety of FTA ACTIVITIES was governed mainly by one ministry (BMBF) and focused largely on science industry relations.
The activities were directed strategically to building on existing areas of strength such as in the automotive industry and microelectronics.
Several industrial countries established their first programs in that field in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
science, and industry. Later processes included expertise from a broader range of disciplines and in the case of the US a growing recognition to include a wider range of stakeholders
and reconfiguring the policy system) was enhanced by building networks among government departments, agencies, industry and a broad variety of academic disciplines.
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, several industrial countries established their first programs in 450 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
While early FTA involved experts almost exclusively fromscience and industry and governmental bodies, current future-oriented activities involve at least in the US experts from social science and humanities.
e g. from fashion to furniture industry; elderly people instead of kids or vice versa...Generalisation as the mainstream practice...
A Model of industrial systems in which all waste materials are reincorporated productively in new production and use phases. 462 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 (2) Participation:
Weinheim u. a.,2005.10 R. Rothwell, Successful industrial innovation: critical success factors for the 1990's, R&d Manag. 22 (3)( 1992) 221 239.11 W c. Kim, R. Mauborgne, Strategy, value innovation,
As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
research institutes and industry. Philine Warnke is a researcher in the Foresight & Policy development Department of the Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) in Vienna.
Since the 1990s Nokia would have been on any list of European industrial success stories as it rose to global leadership in themobile telephony sector.
Again the authors take a more empirical or applied approach, by focusing on a particular case study, the‘‘Intelligent Manufacturing Systems 2020''project.
and ending up with a version of the expert's best guess regarding the best bet for winning the industrial or technological race ten or so years on.
and industrial) culture's effect on national foresight exercises, and more narrowly, on priority setting in science, technology and innovation policies.
‘‘tend to rely on markets to coordinate endeavours in both financial and industrial relation systems''.''while CME‘‘.
and certain types of education are negotiated through industrial level bargains between trade unions and employer associations.
Second, the strong traditions for central negotiation at the industrial level in Denmark between employer and employee associations for instance about productivity enhancing means make it more appropriate and convenient for the Danish government to include the industrial partners in the process of discussing
industry and interest groups. Initially, three criteria or definitions of the themes were defined. The proposals should be oriented to challenges
and industry and non-governmental organisations. In this phase, the number of themes was reduced to 21 (see Box 1). The fourth phase included the implementation of the results as political priorities for strategic research.
) Industry and interest groupings (23) Chairman of Danish universities association (1) 4: Implementation of the Research2015 catalogue in real policy Political negotiations in Parliament, starting with the Fiscal Act of 2009 Most(>75%)of the 21 themes for strategic research were receiving budgets Speakers from the parties
in addition to differences in industrial structure, academic traditions and so on. Our findings also have implications for the academic community.
a cross-cultural study between Singapore and New zealand, Industrial Marketing Management 36 (2006) 293 307.18 R. K. Moenaert, A. de Meyer, B. J. Clarysse, Cultural
Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,*Totti Ko nno la c adg Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic studies and Management
The aim is to draw lessons for international foresight processes on the basis of a specific international foresight project on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems.
and managing the Intelligent Manufacturing Systems (IMS) 2020 project. The first principle is interconnected understanding innovation systems. This principle ensures that participants position the foresight exercise and their own activities in a global context.
an international FTA project addressing the future of intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS). Section 4 outlines the lessons learned from the authors'experiences in designing
intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS) 2020 IMS2020 was an FP7 project funded by the NMP division of the European commission within the IMS Framework, conducted by an international consortium of 15 core partners and a large group
i) sustainable manufacturing, products and services;(ii) energy efficient manufacturing;(iii) key technologies;(iv) standardisation; and (v) innovation, competence development and education.
The aim was to identify relevant research topics and the supporting actions needed to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation in each of,
and across, these areas. Four scenario snapshots of possible states of the future by 2025 were developed.
The approach proposed combined wide participation through online surveys and a wiki platform in combination with interviews and workshops with selected industry experts,
and is more effective than collecting information from industry representatives by other means. Therefore, the methodology set up (Fig. 2) for the IMS2020 foresight process was defined in a way that would ensure the highest relevance to inputs coming from the industrial community.
At the same time the design aimed to ensure the international relevance of the results by taking into consideration previous work both at European and International levels as well as seeking the participation of stakeholders from around the globe.
In order to understand the state of the art on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems, the background work involved the mapping and analysis of
To link findings with stakeholders'expectations, especially those from industry, a first online survey was launched. It identified 261 experts around the globe
political, industrial, technological, and other changes that could influence the realisation of the proposed idea.
The results from the above initiatives were complemented with the outcomes from two brainstorming workshops and 106 interviews with industry representatives.
with over 350 international participants from 150 industrial organisations. 5 Ko nno la et al. 8 refer to modularity of process design where analogous sub-processes
Moreover, the first online questionnaire and interviews with key industry actors took into account those research topics already mapped
the first online survey, industrial workshops, and interviews with industry representatives. It can be summarised into three main statements 26:1.
Rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing, which leads to customised and‘eternal'life cycle solutions. 2. Highly flexible and self-organising value chains,
which enable different ways of organising production systems, including infrastructures, and which reduce the time between engaging with end users
Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules
industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
and industry involvement it achieved, as well as the political momentum and support it generated. It developed a fruitful collaboration between public bodies
This generated momentum for shaping globally the intelligent manufacturing industry of the future 27. At the same time, new schemes and frameworks to support manufacturing systems research are being developed.
These are intended to stimulate small and medium enterprises (SMES) to participate in international cooperative research and development (R&d) projects.
and manufacturing projects as well as establishing international and interregional communities. To do so, beyond the close collaborative work with the client,
ii) continuous recruitment of new members comprising both research and industry stakeholders for the Roadmapping Supporting Group, especially outside the existing IMS community,
patent databases as well as existing research and worldwide roadmaps on manufacturing. The mapping results were brought together with partners'and stakeholders'experience,
as well as workshops with industry. This enabled the selection of the variables used to jointly develop the scenarios,
Workshops with industry representatives were shaped in a way that spaces for mutual learning rather than the simple exchange of information would take place.
dissemination activities Industry Different economic sectors representing IMS region, including roadmapping group Formal Interviews, mutual learning workshops, online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal Online surveys, wiki platform, website
The objectives of the exercise as well as the expected impacts on industry and policy were discussed also in meetings with the European commission.
as well as to explain how results could be presented to different audiences (policy, industry and research). In the design of the first online survey it was necessary to explain
and industry communities (results have been presented in a number of conferences). It is important to highlight that an international approach was sought throughout the exercise.
and were expected to have a greater impact in terms of sustainable manufacturing 33 and IMS. This understanding of potential needs at the local level which influence IMS at EU
and innovation (RI) could encourage sustainable manufacturing. It highlighted some of the challenges in organising global foresight exercises.
reflections from the Finish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 70 88.14 T. Ko nno la, T
exploring alternative futures of industrial renewal, in: Contributed paper for the 2007 conference on corporate R&d (CONCORD:
Deliverable D2. 2. of IMS2020, Project Number 233469,2009. 27 A. Rolstadas, IMS2020 roadmap for sustainable manufacturing research, in:
Proceedings from the IMS2020 Summer School o Sustainable Manufacturing, 26 28 may 2010, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2010.28 E. Dall, C. Cagnin, Regional foresight a case
. Sriram, Developing a Sustainability Manufacturing Maturity Model. The IMS Summer School Manufacturing Strategy First Edition 2010:
Sustainable Manufacturing, 2010.34 D. Klimkeit, Organizational context and collaboration on international projects: the case of a professional service firm, International Journal of Project Management 31 (2013) 366 377.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 38
Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: Impact on policy and decision-making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR Fabiana Scapolo a,, Alan L. Porter b c, d, Michael Rader e a European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Brussels, Belgium b R&d for Search Technology, Inc
.,Norcross, GA, United states c Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA d Public policy, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA e
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 thus advance the existing literature, on how the business sector (e g. industry, industrial associations and foundations) uses FTA TOOLS for a variety of reasons.
GA. He is also Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering, and of Public policy at Georgia Tech, where he co-directs the Technology policy and Assessment Center.
In the first, exploratory phase, both primary and secondary data sources were used to scan the TV industry
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems, Futures (2014)( forthcoming. 52 M. G. Lipe, S. E. Salterio, The balanced scorecard:
Spread of knowledge in the value chain and concentration on core competencies 35,36. 5. Business models that integrate across various industries 9, 37.
Accordingly, EICT aims at facilitating open innovation by providing a setting that is conducive to the flow of information between industry and research in information and communication technologies (ICT),
Europe's largest and one of its most decisive industries that is seen as core to many other industries.
The physical proximity to faculties and local research institutions was supposed to enhance the knowledge exchange between industry
and industry (DTAG, DAG, Opera), the entire innovation process is covered. To coordinate and organize the PPP, a German company with limited liability (German:
The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.
Thus, the futures research activities within EICT usually address thematic issues in various industries. The future of the partners involved
Consortia of partners from academia, industry and research institutes were encouraged to create open innovation ecosystems that integrate the knowledge triangle consisting of education
Activity Short description Type 2. 1 Future studies Continuously identify future trends in an industry based on Delphi
The EIT ICT Labs consist of 20 core partners from industry and academia and approximately 40 associated or affiliated partners.
and the internal ambitions of multiple companies resulted in the shared vision of an integrated organization designed to drive innovation in ICT that would benefit from the different yet complementary assets and resources of industrial and academic partners.
A project team with members from education, research and industry and from several partner organizations identifies
and three industry partners and its division into the three units project management, innovation management and IT appears to be suitable to perform collaborative innovation activities in selected topics.
some partners anticipate that others withhold information especially information that is valued as important within the industrial partner organizations.
Some industry partners hesitated to disclose the use of information within their affiliation, especially concerning strategy development and core business.
Information Knowledge Systems Management 5 (2005) 245 259.36 S. Ahn, A new program in cooperative research between academia and industry in Korea involving Centers of Excellence, Technovation
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